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Moments ago, in response to DB’s open querry on Twitter whether the Dax is “overreacting”, we highlighted DB’s soaring CDS and asked if perhaps the market was not underreacting.
Minutes later the market opined, by sending DB stock to new all time lows.
“Worse than Lehman…”
And that has crushed the entire Geman stock market…
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When it rains it pours…
The market has taken over The Fed’s role – forget above 25bps here or there, the cost of funding for even the highest quality US Corporates is exploding…
Simply put, the credit cycle has turned and is accelerating rapidly – crushing any hopes for debt-funded shareholder-friendliness.
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WTI keeps dead-cat-bouncing thanks to the algos and crashing thanks to reality. This morning's reality check on the overnight ramp comes courtesy of a double-whammy from Goldman ("wouldn't be surprised to see WTI in the teens") and The IEA which increased its estimate of excess-supply drastically. This has dragged WTI back below $30 once again and where oil goes, stocks go…
Goldman Sachs Says No Surprise If Oil Price Drops Below $20/Bbl
“I wouldn’t be surprised if this market goes into the teens,” Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie says in interview on Bloomberg TV.
“Once you breach storage capacity, prices have to spike below cash costs”
And IEA piled on…
The global oil surplus will be bigger than previously estimated in the first half, increasing the risk of further price losses, as OPEC members Iran and Iraq bolster production while demand growth slows, according to the International Energy Agency.
Supply may exceed consumption by an average of 1.75 million barrels a day in the period, compared with an estimate of 1.5 million last month, and the excess could swell if OPEC adds more output, the IEA said. Iran raised production in January following the removal of international sanctions, Iraqi volumes reached a record and Saudi Arabia also ramped up output. The agency trimmed estimates for global oil demand.
Oil volatility remains extremely elevated.
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Just when we said DB should probably keep its mouth shut, the bank that everyone is suddenly very focused on decided to take to Twitter with the following rhetorical question:
#DAX dropped below 9,000 points yesterday – worst start to a year ever: are the markets overreacting? #DrStephan
— Deutsche Bank (@DeutscheBank) February 9, 2016
Well, judging by this…
… the markets are probably underreacting.
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The ECB’s “whatever it takes” ponzi strategy of keeping the dream alive in Europe’s financial system has finally been caught as rapid collapse in the banking system is contagiously spreading to peripheral sovereigns once again. Portugal risk spreads are up 120bps in the last 3 weeks and Spain and Italy are soaring over 35 and 50bps respectively as the almost self-dealing nature of banks buying “risk-free” EU bonds and repoing for cash via The ECB comes home to roost…
And now The ECB is cornered as any more NIRP will merely exacerbate the stress in the financial system and lead to a vicious circle in sovereign risk.
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Here is how global currency warfare and the global “race to debase” works: ECB cuts rates to -0.3%, the BOJ cuts to -0.1%, then the ECB cuts to -0.7% next. At least that’s JPMorgan’s most recent forecast, which now see Mario Draghi going full NIRPtard, and cutting the ECB’s -0.3% deposit rate to -0.5% next month, and then to -0.7% in June, unleashing an epic deflationary tsunami around the globe, one which will send the USD soaring, will force more retaliation by the BOJ, will force more devaluation by the PBOC, will lead to more angry complaing by Deutsche Bank how easing is killing the bank, and so on.
When does it end? When fiat and modern neo-Keynesian economics are thoroughly discredited and when the world’s central bankers end up with fast food worker jobs.
From JPMorgan:
ECB to ease even more and cut the deposit rate to -0.7%
Until now, our expectation has been that the ECB would announce another policy package in March, comprising a 10bp cut of the deposit rate to -0.4%, an increase in the monthly pace of QE purchases by €10bn to €70bn/month, a three-month extension of the QE programme to mid-2017 and two additional TLTROs during 2H16. Beyond that, we have not been expecting any further easing, but we have been expecting the ECB to maintain a very accommodative stance for a long time, with the first hike only towards the end of 2019.
Today, we are changing this call. First, we now expect the March package to include a larger deposit rate cut of 20bp, taking it to -0.5%. Our expectations for QE and the TLTROs are unchanged. Second, we now expect further easing, possibly as early as June, with another 20bp deposit rate cut to -0.7% and another six month extension of QE at €70bn/month, taking QE through to the end of 2017. It is possible that the ECB will adopt a tiered deposit rate system as soon as March. But, even if it does not, we would expect a clear signal already in March that it will be considered later on; for example, the Governing Council could task the ECB’s technical committees to look into it. And in any case, we would expect the ECB to adopt a tiered system by the time it cuts the deposit rate to -0.7%. As we have argued before, the ECB would be sending a strong signal by adopting a tiered system, which can be designed in a way that minimises some potential side-effects.
This forecast change is motivated by two factors. First, we continue to think that inflation will rise towards the ECB’s target more slowly than its staff expects. Second, the ECB will be more sensitive to this in an environment of persistent downside risk. Hence, our new call is mainly about risk management, as we are not making any changes to our macro forecasts. Admittedly, GDP has grown at a sluggish pace in 2H15, but the underlying pace was likely firmer. And, while the January business surveys raise some concern about the underlying pace, we are not currently convinced that there has been a real change in underlying economic conditions. But, from an ECB perspective, uncertainty about the global economy has increased even further, while recent financial market developments are surely uncomfortable (e.g., in terms of the trade-weighted currency, inflation expectations, potential pressures on banks, etc).
Hence, even if the ECB staff publishes the new inflation forecast for 2018 in early March, which we think could be at 1.8%, we believe the Governing Council will remain nervous about the outlook and respond quickly to gradual disappointments on inflation.
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Overnight Media Digest
WSJ
– Market anxiety spilled over into Asia early Tuesday, sending investors scurrying for havens like Japanese government bonds, where 10-year yields fell to zero percent for the first time. (http://on.wsj.com/1TPdXxd)
– For investors in emerging markets, Venezuela has quickly turned from a source of opportunity to a cause for concern. Though the country vows it will make its Feb. 26 payment, markets remain skeptic. (http://on.wsj.com/1W92APu)
– In a blow to financial services giant Blackstone Group LP , Brixmor revealed that accounting personnel had manipulated financial results and said its chief executive and other top managers had stepped down. (http://on.wsj.com/1W98XCb)
– A loss by Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire would sting less if the former secretary of state trails only among independents in her party’s primary. While a Donald Trump’s victory would come with caution signs if the Republican doesn’t expand his blue-collar base. (http://on.wsj.com/1W9cBMw)
– The Obama administration plans to boost the federal government’s power to investigate and punish colleges accused of deceptive marketing tactics and other misconduct, part of a campaign to address years of student complaints about for-profit institutions. (http://on.wsj.com/1W9d7u3)
FT
* UK’s class of nuclear-armed submarines is near completion with the release of 201 million pounds ($289.80 million)to BAE Systems to fund the last development stages before parliament votes on renewing Trident.
* The Open Banking Working Group, which took a review last year at the request of the Treasury, called for information on banks’ products and customers to be more easily accessed by digital services, including comparison websites.
* An increasing squeeze on Britain’s public finances will require Chancellor George Osborne to break several records if he is to balance the books by end of the decade, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
* HSBC Holdings Plc looks towards keeping its head office in London after months of agonising debate reflecting a reversal of the previous stance of Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver.
NYT
– After more than six years of negotiations, the global aviation industry agreed on Monday to the first binding limits on carbon dioxide emissions, tackling the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas pollution. (http://nyti.ms/1UZJb35)
– Time may finally be running out on the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility, a multi-billion dollar, over-budget federal project that has been hard to kill. (http://nyti.ms/1UZJb35)
– Mark Zuckerberg’s grand vision to connect the entire world, hit a major roadblock on Monday, when Indian regulators banned free mobile data programs that favor some Internet services over others. (http://nyti.ms/1PxATMl)
– Investment manager Allianz Global Investors said on Monday it had agreed to acquire Rogge Global Partners, a fixed income firm in London, for an undisclosed amount. (http://nyti.ms/1nUiYrP)
Canada
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** Bay Street lawyer Mitchell Finkelstein has launched an appeal of an Ontario Securities Commission ruling that he tipped a long-time friend about pending takeover deals, arguing the regulator made “impermissible inferences” in a ruling “based entirely on circumstantial evidence.” (http://bit.ly/1SFzrOb)
** Goodwill Industries of Toronto, Eastern, Central and Northern Ontario, Goodwill’s defunct Toronto-based chapter that suddenly closed last month and laid off 430 employees, is filing for bankruptcy in an attempt to restructure and even reopen some of its thrift stores. (http://bit.ly/20lDygY)
** Canadian investors are digging in their heels on both sides of the A$9 billion ($6.33 billion) tug-of-war for port and rail company Asciano Ltd – and the latest development shows neither side is backing down. On Monday, the months-long talks to acquire the Melbourne-based company took a turn as a revised offer from an Australian consortium became the new preference of the board of directors, putting previous board favorite Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP on unsteady ground.
NATIONAL POST
** Interest rates should not be the only tool to promote financial stability, the Bank of Canada’s Timothy Lane said, amid worries of highly indebted consumers and frothy housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver. (http://bit.ly/20lGv12)
** Tahoe Resources Inc’s friendly $945 million deal to buy Lake Shore Gold Corp is being viewed as a logical transaction that addresses challenges faced by both companies. Tahoe gets to diversify into Canada, increase its growth profile and reduce exposure to Guatemala, a very challenging jurisdiction. Lake Shore, meanwhile, can develop its projects quickly without worrying about diluting shareholders or taking on more debt. (http://bit.ly/1QoRVfj)
Britain
The Times
The Financial Conduct Authority has admitted that it must tighten its rules over trading by staff in shares of the banks and brokers it regulates after an internal inquiry found that sensitive information was being stored in places where any employee could find it. (http://thetim.es/1TP38Lv)
Britain’s Supreme Court is to hear an urgent appeal on behalf of thousands of Lloyds bank retail bondholders against its attempts to buy back their assets at a reduced price, in a scheme that was due to start today. (http://thetim.es/1TP3emq)
The Guardian
Imagination Technologies, maker of Pure digital radios, has decided to sell the business and parted company with its longtime chief executive, Hossein Yassaie, after warning that it would suffer a loss this year. (http://bit.ly/1TP222p)
Britain’s leading experts on public finances are warning that the turmoil of global stock markets threatens to leave a 2 billion pounds ($2.88 billion) black hole in George Osborne’s deficit-reduction plans that could force the chancellor to raise taxes or make fresh cuts in spending to hit his budget targets. (http://bit.ly/1TP2bD1)
The Telegraph
Ascential, the magazine business jointly owned by Guardian Media Group and private equity group Apax, is expected to float for 820 million pounds ($1.18 billion) on Wednesday after eight years in private ownership. (http://bit.ly/1TP2DkC)
Royal London Asset Management, which manages more than 80 billion pounds ($115.36 billion) of assets, has told bosses that it will not tolerate mega bonus payouts at lenders which are failing. (http://bit.ly/1TP2Mof)
Sky News
The Rugeley plant in Staffordshire, a coal-fired power station that can provide enough energy to power one million homes, is to close this summer with the potential loss of 150 jobs. (http://bit.ly/1TP2QUW)
The major shareholders of easyGym – who do not include Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the high-profile easyGroup founder – have appointed Houlihan Lokey, an investment bank, to oversee a sale of the fitness club chain later this year, Sky News said. (http://bit.ly/1TP31j8)
The Independent
Charities in UK are calling on the government to introduce legislation to ban supermarkets from sending unsold food to landfills. On Wednesday, France introduced a law that bans supermarkets from throwing away waste food – instead forcing them to donate it to charities and food banks or face a fine of 3,750 euros ($4,200.38). (http://ind.pn/1W8D0Kk)
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Germany may be careening towards a head on-collision when it comes to Europe’s worsening migrant crisis, but tragically, the country had a very real fatal train wreck on Tuesday when two commuter trains crashed near Bad Aibling, in Bavaria.
Just before 7 a.m. two regional trains collided on a rail line which Bloomberg notes “is commonly used by commuters heading to work in Munich, and would normally also carry children traveling to school.”
It’s not clear what caused the crash but authorities say it’s “the biggest accident they’ve had in years.” Both trains are partially derailed and sit “wedged against each other” as as “hundreds” of emergency personnel search the wreckage for survivors.
The cause of the crash is a still unknown. “We need to find out know what happened, if the cause of the crash was based on the technology or human failure,” Federal Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt said.
The Munich city blood center is on high alert. “[We have] an acute increased need for life-saving blood products,” the site said, calling for “immediate donations”. Here’s NBC:
At least nine people were killed and 150 injured when two commuter trains collided in southern Germany early Thursday, officials said.
A massive rescue operation was launched following the crash near the town of Bad Aibling in Bavaria at around 7 a.m. local time (1 a.m. ET).
Police spokeswoman Lisa Meier told NBC News that rescuers believed all survivors had been pulled from the wreckage as of noon local time.
At least 50 of the injuries from the crash were considered to be “serious,” according to police.
German Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt rushed to the scene, calling the incident a “terrible catastrophe” and saying the cause needed to be investigated.
Here are the visuals:
For now, no one is blaming Mid-East asylum seekers. That could change in the hours ahead. “We need to find out what happened, if the cause of the crash was based on the technology or human failure,” Dobrindt added.
“This is a huge shock,” he said.
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Yesterday’s desperate scramble by Deutsche Bank to comfort markets about its liquidity position worked, for about three hours. And then, the bank which really should just keep its mouth shut, did the opposite and reminded an already panicked market just how “serious” things are, in the parlance of Jean-Claude Junkcer, when in an internal memo, the CEO assured his workers that:
That was the good news. The bad news:
More details from Bloomberg:
Deutsche Bank AG is “absolutely rock-solid,” Co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan wrote in a letter to employees, seeking to reassure markets after a plunge in the shares.
Cryan said he isn’t concerned about the Frankfurt-based lender’s ability to meet legal costs, he wrote in the memo published on Tuesday. While Deutsche Bank will “almost certainly” have to add to its provisions for legal costs this year, the firm has already accounted for it in its financial planning, according to Cryan.
“I am personally investing time to resolve successfully and speedily open regulatory and legal cases,” he wrote. “I want to remove the uncertainty among staff and in the market that these cases cause. A small group of senior people, led by me, will focus on this. For everyone else, we ask you to continue to focus on our clients and on the implementation of our strategy.”
Or, said otherwise, “Deutsche Bank is fine.”
However, with numerous analogies being made between the German bank with the soaring default risk and Lehman or at least Bear, that may have been the absolutely worst thing for the bank to note at a time when the market is perfectly happy to interpret any assurance of ongoing solvency and viability as a desperate attempt to boost confidence, and resume selling the stock and buying even more default protection, which is what it has done, and as of last check DB stock just turned negative in German trading.
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With China offline for the rest of the week, global markets have found a new Asian bogeyman in the face of Japan which as reported last night saw its markets crash, and the Yen soar, showing that less than 2 weeks after the BOJ unveiled NIRP, yet another central bank has lost control.
The Nikkei crashed 5.4%, the biggest drop since June 2013, dropping over 900 points to August 24 lows driven by crashing banks, while the Yen soared to 114.50 overnight before the BOJ desperately tried to push the Yen lower, with London dealers reported the BoJ checking rates and levels to prompt short covering through 115.
But while the BOJ failed to push up equities, it certain managed to launch a panic buying spree in JGBs, which as also reported finally slid into negative yield territory, thus boosting the global number of bonds with a negative yield to just shy 30% of total or roughly $7 trillion!
Aside from Japan, everyone is looking at the bank which we first asked if it was “the next Lehman” last June, namely Germany’s Deutsche Bank, to see if yesterday’d desperate scramble to publicly confirm it has sufficient liquidity will sufficient will stop the price from dropping and its CDS drom blowing out. For now, the stock is indeed up modestly, even if the CDS has refused to tighten suggesting that whatever management did, it is not enough and it is only a matter of time before the selling returns.
As a result of this temporary stabilization in financials, the Europe 600 Index was little changed after closing Monday at its lowest level since 2014, and U.S. equity-index futures were also steady. European indexes of credit-default swaps on corporate debt fell for the first time in more than a week, Germany’s 10-year bund yield climbed the most this year and crude in New York rose above $30 a barrel. Equities in Tokyo slumped earlier by the most since August and the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds turned negative for the first time.
“Volatility is getting very high,” Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany told BLoomberg. “Investors need to increase their cash and be careful in case they see any buying opportunities. A technical rally may easily get sold again, we won’t come back to calm waters soon.”
While oil took on secondary importance during yesterday’s financial-led rout, expect algos and even human traders to pay more attention to crude today after the latest IEA monthly reported predicted supply will exceed demand by an avg of 1.75m b/d in 1H, compared w/ fcast of 1.5m last month. “With the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term. In these conditions the short term risk to the downside has increased,” IEA says. It added that the global oil demand fcast for 2016 100k b/d lower than previous mos. report at 95.6m b/d. Elsewhere, Goldman once again warned that oil may drop into the teens as land storage capacity is exhausted.
Looking at today’s calendar, it’s another fairly quiet session for data in Europe this morning with the only releases of note being the December trade numbers out of the UK and Germany along with the latest industrial production data in the latter. Over in the US the early release is the NFIB small business optimism survey for January, followed by the December JOLTS job openings and wholesale trade sales and inventories data. As a reminder, JOLTS data is released with a one-month lag so the data will be reflecting what was a bumper month for hiring (payrolls +262k) in December and not reflective of the recent softer payrolls number. Earnings wise we’ve got 18 S&P 500 companies set to report including Walt Disney and Coca-Cola.
Market Wrap
Top Global News
A quick look at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks picked up where global equities left off as the newly added woes triggered by Deutsche Bank has seen the financial sector deflate the Asia-Pac region. In turn, the Nikkei 225 (-5.4%) bared the brunt of the risk-off sentiment, with banks in the region feeling the squeeze, whilst a firmer JPY saw the bourse fall over 900 points. Elsewhere, ASX 200 (-2.9%) could not escape the reach of the downbeat tone as the index was also pressured by financials, which accounts for nearly half of the total composition of the bourse. JGBs were bolstered by the dampened sentiment sparking flight-to-quality trade, with yields across the curve yet again falling to record lows, additionally Japanese 10yr yields are now the first among the G7 nations to go negative.
Asian Top News
Fears over the European banking sector linger in markets this morning and European equity markets have seen choppy price action since the open. Initially led lower by the Nikkei 225 closing lower by over 5%, equities have since trended higher after in vogue Deutsche Bank stated that that their 2016 payment capacity is enough to finance their AT1 payment. As a result, the German heavyweight provided some reprieve for Europe, with the iTraxx Sub Financial index, an index tracking the value of CDS’s, moving in sympathy with Deutsche and tightening by 19bps. The same cannot be said for Credit Suisse (-3.7%) however, the Swiss bank is continuing to suffer from its poor earnings reported last week and questions surrounding the banks’ ability to a large fine.
European Top News
In FX, Once again it was an early London session left to provide some stability in the markets, and in FX improved liquidity levels naturally help. USD/JPY lows in Asia bottomed out at 114.22, but dealers reported the BoJ checking rates and levels to prompt short covering through 115.00, though 115.50 has proved an obstacle since. EUR/USD continues to trade in the opposite direction, but it is a little too early to suggest the 1.1236 highs are the top of the move. The commodity currencies take a back seat as Oil stabilises and Gold now a safe haven. USD/CAD is still holding off 1.4000, while AUD is propped up ahead of .7000. GBP posted fresh 1 year lows against the EUR ahead of .7800, but has retraced in line with EUR/USD. Cable pivoting on 1.4400 for now. EUR/CHF now just under 1.1000 as CHF naturally benefitting in current climate.
Looking at commodities, oil took a back seat in yesterday’s trade, however has quietly ticked higher in Europe, with WTI Mar’16 futures comfortably holding the USD 30.00 handle and as such the energy sector is one of the better performers in Europe. However a note from Goldman Sachs saying that oil could oil prices ‘go into the teens’, may cause oil bulls some anxiety.
As North American participants come to their desks the yellow metal has dipped below the USD 1900/oz level, finding a tight range following yesterday’s stock-market rout inspired gains. Of note, Goldman Sachs have said they are not buying into the recent rally, as they still foresee three fed hikes this year, driving the price of gold down to around USD 1000/oz by year end
Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg
US Event Calendar
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Onto the latest in Asia this morning now where bourses in Japan and Australia are extending much of yesterday’s turmoil. It’s the moves in Japan which have been more eye-catching with the Topix and Nikkei currently -5.71% and – 5.58% and moving lower as we go to print. In Australia the ASX is -2.88%. Credit markets have taken a big hit in the region with iTraxx Japan and Australia indices both +10bps wider. Meanwhile 10y JGB’s have crossed into negative territory this morning and plummeted to fresh record lows. The benchmark maturity is down over 3bps in early trading and currently sitting at -0.022%. That’s despite another strong performance for the Yen, currently up over 1% and in the process reaching a 15-month high and extending the incredible run since the BoJ cut rates to negative. Oil is hovering around the $30/bbl mark while US equity futures are down around 1% as we refresh our screens.
Moving on. The latest DB TheHouseView titled “Still deep in the woods” came out overnight. The team notes that in addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues are further weighing on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit. Their macro outlook for 2016 is broadly unchanged so far, uninspiring but not a disaster, but they note that downside risks have risen both in the US and in Europe. Until US growth, European financial conditions, China and oil concerns are put aside, markets will remain volatile and a sustained change in risk appetite is difficult.
In truth yesterday was dominated by the moves for European financials with very little newsflow or data elsewhere to drive markets. The latter was largely secondary in nature. In Europe we saw the Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area decline 3.6pts this month to 6.0 (vs. 7.4 expected). Meanwhile in the US the labour market conditions index was softer than expected last month at 0.4 (vs. 2.0 expected), a fall of 1.9pts relative to December.
Unsurprisingly safe-havens dominated the few asset classes which actually saw gains yesterday. Of particular note was the move for Gold which finished up +1.35% for its fourth consecutive daily gain of at least 1%, with the metal at one stage trading up through $1200/oz for the first time since June last year. Meanwhile core sovereign bond yields marched lower. 10y Bunds finished just shy of 8bps lower at 0.216% and the lowest since April last year when the yield closed at a record low 7.4bps at one stage. Other core European bond markets saw similar moves while the peripherals sold off with Italy, Spain and Portugal +12.3bps, +10.7bps and +25.3bps wider respectively. 10y Treasury yields (-8.7bps) closed at the lowest in 12-months meanwhile at 1.749% (and have marched lower this morning, testing 1.7% to the downside) while the probability of the one Fed rate hike this year has quickly plummeted back towards 30%.
Before we move onto today’s calendar, one interesting highlight from the ECB’s Coeure yesterday was the reference to potential coordination on emerging market currencies. In an interview with French press, Coeure suggested that a further depreciation for EM currencies is possible and that ‘that’s an issue for global coordination’ which will be discussed at the G20 finance ministers meeting in Shanghai in 10 days time.
Looking at the day ahead now, it’s another fairly quiet session for data in Europe this morning with the only releases of note being the December trade numbers out of the UK and Germany along with the latest industrial production data in the latter. Over in the US the early release is the NFIB small business optimism survey for January, followed by the December JOLTS job openings and wholesale trade sales and inventories data. As a reminder, JOLTS data is released with a one-month lag so the data will be reflecting what was a bumper month for hiring (payrolls +262k) in December and not reflective of the recent softer payrolls number. Earnings wise we’ve got 18 S&P 500 companies set to report including Walt Disney and Coca-Cola.
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