Egypt: The Pound Plunges

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

The Egyptian pound is plummeting, again, losing 6.1% of its value against the greenback over the past week.  As shown in the accompanying chart, the black market premium has soared to 25.2%.

The plunging pound has dramatically pushed up Egypt’s implied annual inflation rate.  It now stands at 28.9%.  The Egyptian pound might just be General Sisi’s Achilles’ heel.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1TFJjb2 Steve H. Hanke

Mike Bloomberg Won’t Run For President: “I Won’t Risk Helping Trump”

Authored by Michael Bloomberg, originally posted at BloombergView.com,

Americans today face a profound challenge to preserve our common values and national promise.

Wage stagnation at home and our declining influence abroad have left Americans angry and frustrated. And yet Washington, D.C., offers nothing but gridlock and partisan finger-pointing.

Worse, the current presidential candidates are offering scapegoats instead of solutions, and they are promising results that they can’t possibly deliver. Rather than explaining how they will break the fever of partisanship that is crippling Washington, they are doubling down on dysfunction.

Over the course of American history, both parties have tended to nominate presidential candidates who stay close to and build from the center. But that tradition may be breaking down. Extremism is on the march, and unless we stop it, our problems at home and abroad will grow worse.

Many Americans are understandably dismayed by this, and I share their concerns. The leading Democratic candidates have attacked policies that spurred growth and opportunity under President Bill Clinton — support for trade, charter schools, deficit reduction and the financial sector. Meanwhile, the leading Republican candidates have attacked policies that spurred growth and opportunity under President Ronald Reagan, including immigration reform, compromise on taxes and entitlement reform, and support for bipartisan budgets. Both presidents were problem-solvers, not ideological purists. And both moved the country forward in important ways.

Over the last several months, many Americans have urged me to run for president as an independent, and some who don’t like the current candidates have said it is my patriotic duty to do so. I appreciate their appeals, and I have given the question serious consideration. The deadline to answer it is now, because of ballot access requirements.

My parents taught me about the importance of giving back, and public service has been an important part of my life. After 12 years as mayor of New York City, I know the personal sacrifices that campaigns and elected office require, and I would gladly make them again in order to help the country I love.

I’ve always been drawn to impossible challenges, and none today is greater or more important than ending the partisan war in Washington and making government work for the American people — not lobbyists and campaign donors. Bringing about this change will require electing leaders who are more focused on getting results than winning re-election, who have experience building small businesses and creating jobs, who know how to balance budgets and manage large organizations, who aren’t beholden to special interests — and who are honest with the public at every turn. I’m flattered that some think I could provide this kind of leadership.

But when I look at the data, it’s clear to me that if I entered the race, I could not win. I believe I could win a number of diverse states — but not enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency.

In a three-way race, it’s unlikely any candidate would win a majority of electoral votes, and then the power to choose the president would be taken out of the hands of the American people and thrown to Congress. The fact is, even if I were to receive the most popular votes and the most electoral votes, victory would be highly unlikely, because most members of Congress would vote for their party’s nominee. Party loyalists in Congress — not the American people or the Electoral College — would determine the next president.

As the race stands now, with Republicans in charge of both Houses, there is a good chance that my candidacy could lead to the election of Donald Trump or Senator Ted Cruz. That is not a risk I can take in good conscience.

I have known Mr. Trump casually for many years, and we have always been on friendly terms. I even agreed to appear on “The Apprentice” — twice. But he has run the most divisive and demagogic presidential campaign I can remember, preying on people’s prejudices and fears. Abraham Lincoln, the father of the Republican Party, appealed to our “better angels.” Trump appeals to our worst impulses.

Threatening to bar foreign Muslims from entering the country is a direct assault on two of the core values that gave rise to our nation: religious tolerance and the separation of church and state. Attacking and promising to deport millions of Mexicans, feigning ignorance of white supremacists, and threatening China and Japan with a trade war are all dangerously wrong, too. These moves would divide us at home and compromise our moral leadership around the world. The end result would be to embolden our enemies, threaten the security of our allies, and put our own men and women in uniform at greater risk.

Senator Cruz’s pandering on immigration may lack Trump’s rhetorical excess, but it is no less extreme. His refusal to oppose banning foreigners based on their religion may be less bombastic than Trump’s position, but it is no less divisive.

We cannot “make America great again” by turning our backs on the values that made us the world’s greatest nation in the first place. I love our country too much to play a role in electing a candidate who would weaken our unity and darken our future — and so I will not enter the race for president of the United States.

However, nor will I stay silent about the threat that partisan extremism poses to our nation. I am not ready to endorse any candidate, but I will continue urging all voters to reject divisive appeals and demanding that candidates offer intelligent, specific and realistic ideas for bridging divides, solving problems, and giving us the honest and capable government we deserve.

For most Americans, citizenship requires little more than paying taxes. But many have given their lives to defend our nation — and all of us have an obligation as voters to stand up on behalf of ideas and principles that, as Lincoln said, represent “the last best hope of Earth.” I hope and pray I’m doing that.

*  *  *

And as if Bill Ackman's stock market forecasts were not bad enough, he said this in October:

"I’m not supporting any other candidate. I’m all in for Mike Bloomberg."
 


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1SvqnKH Tyler Durden

Average Wall Street Bonus Drops 9%; Lowest Since 2012

When it comes to concerns about their professional future, few things faze Wall Streeters: mass layoffs – no big deal, someone else will hire; empty steakhouses – that’s ok, Hustler Club is packed (and expense accounts are accepted just fine). But lower compensation and all hell breaks loose. Which is why quite a few hearts must have been pounding today when New York state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli released his annual Wall Street compensation report in which we revealed that average Wall Street bonuses for 2015 will drop by a quite substantial 9% to “only” $146,200, the second consecutive year of declines, and the lowest since 2012 when average bonuses were $142,860.

According to DiNapoli, “Wall Street bonuses and profits fell in 2015, reflecting a challenging year in the financial markets. While the cost of legal settlements appears to be easing, ongoing weaknesses in the global economy and market volatility may dampen profits in 2016.” This is bad news for New York because “both the state and city budgets depend heavily on the securities industry and lower profits could mean fewer industry jobs and less tax revenue.

The total bonus pool for securities industry employees declined by 6 percent to $25 billion in 2015 during the traditional December-March bonus season. The Comptroller’s estimate includes cash bonuses for the current year and bonuses deferred from prior years that have been cashed in.

Curiously, DiNapoli said that while profits in the securities industry declined for the third straight year, reaching their lowest level since 2011, industrywide employment increased 2.7% in 2015, averaging 172,400 jobs for the year.  As a result, the average bonus declined by 9 percent in New York City to $146,200 in 2015 and the decline in the average bonus was larger than the decline in the total bonus pool because the pool was shared among a larger number of employees than last year.  As a result, the average bonus in 2015 was slightly larger than the average of the seven prior years (adjusted for inflation).

However, anyone seeking a big pick up in wages will have to look elsewhere: ideally minimum wage waiters, bartenders and retail workers who now make up the bulk of Obama’s “recovery.”

One also wonders how long before Wall Street switches from bonus cuts to even more wholesale terminations. Indeed, as DiNapoli notes, “it remains to be seen whether the recent job gains can be sustained in 2016 given the weakness in the global economy and financial markets, and increased provisions for bad loans related to the energy sector. A number of large financial firms have already announced plans to reduce costs to improve profitability, which could lead to fewer employees in New York City and smaller bonuses next year.”

And that is what the recovery has to look forward to: not only fewer of the best paid employees in the US, but another year of smaller bonuses. At least the price of oil has soared enough to where that quarter of a million of laid off O&G workers will be promptly rehired, or else very soon the US will run out of waiters.

Finally, don’t cry for Wall Street: like every other utility, increasingly more of the comp is paid in the form of base pay and less in the bonus: according to DiNapoli the average salary (including bonuses) for securities industry employees in New York City rose 14% in 2014 to $404,800, setting a new record (data are not yet available for 2015). This was nearly six times higher than salaries in the rest of the City’s private sector ($72,300).

Some other observations from the report:

  • Although the securities industry is smaller, it is still one of New York City’s most powerful economic engines. The industry accounted for 22 percent of all private sector wages paid in New York City in 2014 even though it accounted for less than 5 percent of the City’s private sector jobs. An estimated 1 in 9 jobs in the city are either directly or indirectly associated with the securities industry;
  • Unlike in prior economic recoveries, the securities industry has not been a driving force in the current jobs recovery in New York City. So far, the industry has accounted for less than 1 percent of the private sector jobs added, compared with 10 percent during the two prior recoveries;
  • Securities-related activities are a large contributor to state and city tax revenues. DiNapoli estimates that securities-related activities accounted for 7.5 percent ($3.8 billion) of all city tax revenue in city fiscal year 2015 and 17.5 percent ($12.5 billion) of state tax collections in State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2014-15. The state also expects to receive more than $8.5 billion in settlement payments from financial firms during SFY 2014-15 and SFY 2015-16; and

Finally, this is the history of average Wall Street bonuses over the years:


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Svqki2 Tyler Durden

One Venezuelan’s Angry Rant: Six Stories From A Socialist Apocalypse

Authored by Robert Evans, originally posted at Cracked.com,

We like apocalypse fantasies because a part of us thinks it would be kind of fun. No bills to pay, no job to drag yourself to — life goes back to basics. You don't watch The Hunger Games and really think about what it would be like to have a toothache or yeast infection you can't treat. And you certainly don't think of it as something that can actually occur.

But as we like to point out in these articles, there's always an apocalypse somewhere. We're talking about countries in which life was fairly normal a few years ago, until the day when everything fell apart. Today's example: Venezuela.

Once on the road to becoming an economic powerhouse, Venezuela is now one of the poorest and most dangerous countries on Earth.

We sat down with one citizen to learn what happens when your country's economy and government just… stop working.

6 – Any Economy Can Suddenly Collapse

Above and below are pictures of our source's local grocery store in the middle of an average day:

Nothing but Doritos. Worse than nothing at all, really.

Those weren't taken on the eve of some big national drinking party. Food simply … doesn't show up anymore. On the rare occasions the stores have stock, people queue up in block-spanning lines that would make Weimar-era Germans wince. All to get their hands on flour, soap, or the almost-mythical Coca-Cola.

They debate sightings like it's some sugary Bigfoot.

Our source took that picture illegally, by the way. Photos of bread lines, he says, "'promote discomfort and give a bad name to the country.' I faced the risk of receiving a ticket or having my camera taken."

That's what zoom lenses are for.

This is the part where you think, "Well, that's what you get under radical socialism. But that could never happen in America!" But until recently, their grocery stores looked the same as yours, except with more accent marks in the product names. Now, Venezuelans are only legally allowed to shop twice a week, and they have to hope they pick a day when looters don't show up. There was no evil commie conspiracy; just a spiral of bad decisions. We're not saying it's likely that you're going to wake up one day and go through the same thing where you live, but it's not impossible. An economy can be a fragile thing.

Be happy you can order groceries online … for now.

But disaster creates opportunity. One of Venezuela's few growth industries revolves around helping people with money avoid the worst of the scarcity. Bachaqueros ("voracious insect," basically, so it's not a respected gig) buy up as much as they can find, and then resell it on the black market. Our source explains, "A carton of milk sells for one dollar. The bachaqueros sell it for eight to nine. That undermines the economy, because normal people can't get those products. The minimum wage most people get is not enough."

Bachaqueros befriend store owners and cashiers to get around fingerprint-enforced purchase limits. Your average Joe can only buy two cartons of milk a week … unless he goes to the bachaqueros, who dodge those rules to stock up. You can also pay bachaqueros to stand in line for you, which sounds like laziness until you discover that a line can stretch for six hours. It's reached the point where social media is used to discuss toilet paper strategy. "You can ask on Instagram or Twitter. People will find you, and you can buy in bulk. We have 50 rolls on hand, and we stock up every time we can, because we don't know when there's going to be a shortage again. The most common alternative is to shower right after going to the bathroom. The smallest denomination of money is used for toilet paper, because it's worthless."

We're fairly sure that wasn't a figure of speech.

 

5 – You Suddenly Can't Leave The House After Dark

Venezuela's crime rate is out of control, because you'd consider a life of crime too if you had to wait six hours to get sandwich ingredients.

 Caracas, the capital, is now deadlier than Baghdad. We told you before how terrifying it is to live there, but life can be just as dangerous outside the city.

Exhibit A: What's known as a "Venezuela parking ticket."

That's our source's car. While it was parked in front of his house, someone straight-up walked off with his wheels. And of course he can't replace them, because they're going through shortages of more than food. It's everything. "There's no accountability for the thieves; everyone can do whatever they want. And I cannot go to the police, because the police are either in cahoots [with the criminals] or won't do anything."

Don't ask where they got those wheels.

But at least our source hasn't been, you know, murdered. So there's that. "After 6 p.m., no one is really safe. You see fewer and fewer people going to the clubs or the cinema, because going outside has been horrible. If you go outside and you don't have anything [of value, criminals] still kill you. Because you're worthless. The thieves have seen that even if they use force, they're hardly ever convicted of crimes. Even the policemen ask to pass through [gang-run areas]."

Why would the police bust their asses to arrest dangerous criminals when their reward would be, at best, a raise or a bonus that they could spend on … nothing? Better to stay on the side of the people who have access to food and toilet paper, even if they're murdering to get it.

All right, so here's the question looming over all of this: How does a previously-stable country reach the point where going out after dark is risking death? Was there an invasion that decimated the government and infrastructure? A natural disaster? Did they bet the national treasury on the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl last year? Nope! And in fact, we bet it's something that you'd never suspect …

 

4 –Your Cheap Gas Is Their Catastrophe

Hey, remember how like five years ago we were certain that the world was running out of oil and gas prices shot up to $4.00 a gallon?

And have you noticed that you're paying like $1.75 now (depending on where you live)? That's because worldwide petroleum prices have collapsed. So that's good news for working folks with a commute, but bad news for a country like Venezuela.

"We need a carbon tax, with the proceeds buying milk for Venezuelans!" — a plan that would surely popular with everyone

You probably didn't know that Venezuela has the most oil of anyone. No, really — they're sitting on more oil than Saudi Araba, and they have almost as much as Iran and Iraq combined. Three times as much as Russia. So back in the day, it didn't seem like a terrible idea when Hugo Chavez dumped billions into social programs. Oil prices were high and profits were up, so why not make it rain? Hell, Kuwait regularly gives its citizens cash payouts and free food with their ridiculous oil revenues. Saudi Arabia does it too.

But then oil prices fell, and kept falling, and it came as a complete shock to the Venezuelan government, which had sort of assumed that oil would keep going up in value until it was either exhausted or Earth moved to a Star Trek-like post-currency utopia. "But," you're probably thinking, "Why wasn't everybody filthy rich from the days when our drivers were paying through the nose?" Good question. Part of the answer is that the country was laughably corrupt even when times were good. For years, the government allowed businessmen to siphon away tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue. And so instead of having a safety cushion to keep the country going through some lean years, Venezuela ended up with a patch of cement to splatter against.

The Venezuelan economy.

So the oil money dried up, and all the things you should be able to expect a socialist government to provide — water, electricity, law enforcement — suddenly became either unreliable or nonexistent, forcing people to either turn to expensive private entities or go without. A system that appeared flawed but solid ("Sure there's corruption, but we're sitting on an ocean of oil, bitch!") turned out to be a house of cards. And once things start going bad, well …

 

3 – Attempts To Fix The Economy Created A Death Spiral

We opened this article with images of empty shelves and Coca-Cola refrigerators. But while standing in line for tampons isn't much fun, let's allow our source to make it clear how bad things can get:

"My family [has a lot of doctors]. They have a clinic. You cannot find aspirin, or basic products like stomach pumps and scalpels. The only company that produces synthetic adrenaline left the country because there is strict monetary control. Companies cannot import medical supplies. So you go to any hospital, and you can see people on the floor bleeding and dying because they don't have enough beds, scalpels, cleaning agents … "

One room has a mop. That's the best room.

There are references there to things like "monetary control," and we don't intend to bore you with a lesson in how an economy works, other than to point out that nobody really understands how a fucking economy works. Remember that the richest and smartest investors in the USA lost billions in the 2008 market crash because they had no idea it was coming. Collapses only make sense in retrospect, and trying to stop one in progress can be like trying to get your tumbling Jenga pieces to land perfectly back in the shape of a tower.

Frantically blowing on falling blocks economic systems works less than 10 percent of the time.

So when things started going to shit, the government decided to grab the wheel and try to get the skid under control. You know how in tough economic times, people in the USA tend to blame foreigners (like those damned Chinese companies stealing our jobs, or those lazy Mexicans stealing our tax dollars)? Well, that happened there, too. The feeling was that Venezuela was getting exploited by all those damned foreign countries. So the government started seizing the assets of foreign companies doing business there. (Or rather, "buying" them for a fraction of their price — Exxon, for example, was made to "sell" $900 million of assets for $250 million.) The government, of course, did not have the slightest idea how to manage what they acquired, and things only got worse. The country's currency became all but worthless, and the economy collapsed into chaos.

The wealthy quickly started to exchange their local currency (bolivars) for good old Yankee bucks that would hold their value, so the government quickly made that illegal. But then businesses couldn't import goods, since they couldn't use dollars and nobody outside Venezuela wanted their worthless currency. And that, friends, is how you get a scarcity crisis in which buying toilet paper is a monthly holiday and hospital patients wind up sleeping on the floor.

Current value places bolivars somewhere between Monopoly money and Chuck E. Cheese tokens.

It's also how you get a new black market. The most prized item? Those American dollars. "There's a website, Dollar Today … right now, you can buy one dollar for 900 bolivars. The minimum wage in Venezuela is 9,000 bolivars a month. There are people who buy dollars, wait for them to go up, and sell. That's the safest market Venezuela has. Because they're always going to go up, and you'll never lose your investment."

Did you catch that? When they bet on the dollars to always go up, they mean in comparison to their local currency. They're betting that their own country will continue to go to shit.

 

2 – The People In Charge Become Criminals

As we mentioned, Venezuela is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, which makes it difficult to do the whole "socialist paradise" thing.

 

Transparency International ranks countries based on corruption, and in 2015, Venezuela came in 158th out of 167, behind noted bastions of good governance like Syria and Myanmar.

Here's one fun example: 90 percent of Venezuela suffers from a powdered milk shortage, because the government-run company responsible for distributing it to protein-starved children was caught illegally selling it to Colombia.

Not the typical white powder you associate with the South American black market.

Most of you are fortunate enough to live in a country where saying "the politicians are criminals" usually isn't literal. We say a senator is corrupt because they take money from lobbyists and give contracts to companies run by their friends. That sucks, but at least they're not outright selling crack on the streets. But if there's not enough rule of law to keep tires from being stolen, then there sure as hell isn't enough to make sure the president's family isn't running narcotics.

Thus, two nephews of the current president were caught trying to smuggle 800 freaking kilograms of cocaine into the US through Haiti. That wasn't their personal hobby. The government and drug cartels aren't merely in bed together; they're experimenting with kinky new positions most people would never dream of. Two military officers were recently indicted for trafficking. The current head of the National Guard was charged with taking money to warn cartels about raids. Two high-ranking police officials were indicted for laundering drug money. We could go on for a while.

\

"We'll ask this anti-drug official for comment as soon as we finish indicting him."

So how does a government this corrupt and incompetent stay in power? Well …

 

1Scarcity Can Be A Weapon

Opposition to America and capitalism is a huge part of Venezuelan politics, partially because America makes a convenient scapegoat and partially because we did kinda try to overthrow or kill Hugo Chavez a few times.

 Our bad. "One of [Chavez's] biggest and earliest achievements was creating a national mindset in which the 'People' were poor, needy, and supporters of his ideals, and the rest were dissidents, traitors, or 'Pitiyanqui.'"

That means "little Yankee," and Chavez started using the term in 2008, when the economy began to weaken. The implication was if you're a patriotic Venezuelan, these shortages won't bother you because you don't care about material possessions, man (at which point Chavez presumably took a huge bong hit). But that's all part of how everything is politicized in Venezuela. The Venezuelan government uses scarcity to identify and shame "dissidents" — which in this context means anyone who wants a kitchen with snacks in it.

Chavez's no-snack policy was a "Do as I say, not as I do" thing.

We interviewed our source in the middle of an election, and government propaganda claimed that the opposition was teaming up with the US to create the scarcity. In one TV ad, a humble poor woman is waiting for her free government house. She asks when it will be ready, only to be told that she now has to pay for it. Then she wakes up from her horrible nightmare and resolves to vote for the government before the opposition takes charge and dooms her. "If you vote for the opposition, you're [told you're] going to lose your houses, your privileges, that you won't be able to buy [food staples]. It's a very powerful message."

But not quite powerful enough, as those elections have since happened and saw the opposition party make significant gains. The government didn't sit back and accept defeat, though. Two days later, our source told us that toilet paper was mysteriously impossible to find again, even on the black market. Remember that when you vote for president, Americans. No matter how much you may hate one candidate, they're not going to take away your TP out of spite.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1YotcxD Tyler Durden

Kick Turkey Out of NATO

There’s a Petition at Change.org to suspend Turkey’s membership in NATO.

Why kick Turkey out of NATO?

Because:

  • Turkey just shut down the largest Turkish newspaper using tear gas, water canons and brutality:

  • After reporters, local police and Turkish generals caught a weapons shipment from Turkey into Syria, they were all arrested on “treason” charges for exposing the shipment
  • Turkey provided the chemical weapons used in the famous attacks which killed hundreds in Syria. Pulitzer-prize winning investigative reporter Seymour Hersh – who uncovered the Iraq prison torture scandal and the Mai Lai massacre in Vietnam  – previously reported that high-level American sources tell him that the Turkish government carried out the chemical weapons attacks blamed on the Syrian government

Why are we allowing such an antidemocratic, tin pot dictatorship stay in NATO?


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/21TBJxU George Washington

S&P Panic-Bid Above 2,000 As Short-Squeeze Rip Trumps Fed’s Fischer Dip

Just when you thoughjt it was safe to chase the biggest short squeeze in history Fed vice-chair Fischer f##ked it all up…

 

The US equity market has only been more overbought 3 days in history…

 

Amid the Biggest short squeeze…ever!

 

It's not the fundamentals; it's oil stupid!!

 

As WTI (front-month continuous based on BBG data) has the biggest 3-week gain since August 1990…

 

And SPY (S&P 500 ETF) saw its lowest volume of the year…

 

US equities went straight up out of the gate but Fischer took the sting out of it all at 1300ET – *FISCHER: WE MAY BE SEEING `FIRST STIRRINGS' OF HIGHER INFLATION – plunging stocks into the red, before yet another late-day buying panic ensued on PIMCO risk-on headlines…

 

Energy was the yuuge winner, tech the biggest loser and financials unch…

 

After closing at 1999.99 on Friday. S&P desperately tried to hold 2,000 today… Look at the sheer panic of the market in the last seconds of the day to get S&P above 2000…

 

Every time the S&P dropped below 2,000 – VIX was banged lower… and the close was a total joke…

 

As JPMorgan warned – "The market is trapped" – trapped by USD: it can’t rally to new highs without USD (momentum sectors, FANGs, etc.), and at the same time the strong USD is capping any significant upside due to its negative impact on EPS (via value segments such as multinationals and energy).

Which explains why energy is outperforming Tech…

 

And Value stocks have greatly outperformed Growth in the last week, almost back to unchanged on the year (and back to the extremes of early feb in terms of divergence)…

 

US financial stocks are completely decoupled from credit in the last few days…

 

VIX and stocks decoupled…

 

One quick question – if everything is so awesome again, why is the most-levered part of the US corporate bond capital structure landscape underperforming so strongly…

 

The USD Index was monkey-hammered early as commodity currencies soared but recovered very modestly after Fischer's comments…

 

Treasury yields ended the day higher but 30Y outperformed (with the entire complex sliding after Fischer's comments) – note the last 30 minutes saw bond yield rise once again – driven by PIMCO comments on rotation from Treasuries to riskier debt

 

Obviously crude stood out in today's berserk market…

 

And we note that Gold was dumped after Europe closed as chatter went around of margin calls in crude sparking covering in everything…

 

Gold was thumped lower twice since Friday's close – both saw significant bounces….

 

Crude is just a swarm of short-covering squeezes – now back at $38 – the lows of 12/31/15…

 

And finally – leaving the best for last, this happened…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1p352MR Tyler Durden

The Business Media Is Sounding More Socialist Every Day

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

Here in the U.S. election season is in full swing, and it’s near impossible to find relief from the minute by minute relentless political ads, along with the ever-present media commentary. However, I never contemplated when I previously prayed, then begged for relief from the incessant pharmaceutical ads that bombarded me daily that my calls would be answered in the form of replacing them with ads of the political sort. Now I find myself again pleading or begging to return those intestinal discomfort or dysfunction et al ads. It truly gives credence to that old saying: “Be careful what you wish for!” Which is fitting to the topic of not only today’s politics, but business in general.

One of the newest (although it’s as old as time itself) idea dynamics to openly enter the U.S. political/business debate in my lifetime has undoubtedly been: Socialism.

What has baffled me is not only the rapid acceptance of the idea, rather, the call for it to be implemented here in the U.S. on a grand scale. We currently not only have politicians publicly advocating it, we also have many “business leaders” demanding varying forms of its implementation throughout sectors of the economy.

Whether or not one agrees with what is being called for, as well as, what has already been implemented, is up to you. Understanding the how, why, and where it leads based on prudent contemplation and where you’ll fit in as an entrepreneur, business leader, or solo-practitioner is quite another. For no matter what the political theme-of-the-day is currently being touted (i.e., Get the 1%! et al.) The people directly in those cross-hairs of “other people’s money” are going to be aimed squarely on the business communities balance sheets, as well as profits. Regardless if they have any. Remember that.

One of my personal favorite economic writers Thomas Sowell recently wrote an article where he describes, as well as, makes a poignant observation.

“Moreover, under any economic system, those costs are either going to be paid or there are not going to be any colleges. Money is just an artificial device for getting real things done.

 

Those young people who understand this, whether clearly or vaguely, are not likely to be deterred from wanting socialism. Because what they really want is for somebody else to pay for their decision to go to college.”

I would like to add my own two-cents to this observation that not only seems lost on just “”young people” but also, far too many people in general.

I am of the opinion there is currently no other more vivid, tangible, real life, in real-time example on the difference between a socialist view and outcome, as opposed to, a capitalism viewpoint and outcome, than the very place everyone is decrying “has to be fixed!” College tuition.

Under a socialist model your tuition will be both free – as well as worthless. Why? Because everyone will have a Ph.D. Just like you. So it had better be free because, they’ll be no employers willing to pay more for a candidate with one. It’s a race to the bottom. Think I’m wrong? Fair enough, ponder this…

Today there are easily more waiters and waitresses with higher degree levels than ever before. All these “higher degree” holders have pushed out the many lesser or non-degree’d holders that filled these jobs previously. Yet, it’s not that the wage scale of waiters and waitresses has gone up accordingly to attract these candidates. Quite the contrary – it’s that the job opportunities for these “higher degree” holders have dwindled. Welcome to a more “socialized” economy. “Would you like fries with that?”

Under the capitalistic model your tuition is supposed to cost, and if you want an education that prospective employers will pay extra for – you’re going to pay extra. Sometimes much more. The difference that once held here under this model was this: there would be a multitude of employers willing and able to warrant paying you enough salary not only to pay off that education, but also, to make a good living with the prospects of turning it into a great one. And that’s a race to the top.

The problem is we’ve gotten away from the “capitalist model” and have been going further, and further down the “socialist” model with ever greater speed over the past decade or more. Where today college students think the solution is to go even further, and ever faster in pursuit of the bottom. Why? Easy – this is what not only “young” people are being taught, but also, older people who should know better are reinforcing. And there was no greater example of this than what I heard on a recent “business/financial” show.

On Friday of this past week I was tuned into  Bloomberg’s Surveillance™ radio program (a program for full disclosure I like) where, like many others, awaited the latest monthly “jobs” report. However, as mystifying as the latest report was (i.e., how these numbers are compiled) what left me stupefied was some of the banter back and forth by not only the hosts, but also, by one of the guests. In particular. e.g., Alan Krueger

Mr. Krueger, once part of the current administration for economic policy is now back at Princeton University. When the “jobs” number was announced his verbal dissertation into why this report validated the idea that “we are on the right path” was laughable to anyone with a modicum of business acumen. Let me give you an example.

An argument goes something like this: “We created 3 times as many jobs as were lost.” Fair enough, but here’s the dirty little secret. Every one of those jobs lost was a job that paid more than the 3 “new jobs” combined salaries. e.g., One $50K job in manufacturing was replaced with three $12-$15K menial jobs. Result?

You not only lost $5K or more in real taxable income. Without that $50K salaried person spending, I portend, there will soon be a need for one less of those the menial paying jobs as the impending economic backlash of loosing that $50K job catches up. And when it catches up fully and in earnest? You’ll be lucky if there’s any need for the other two.

So, does that seem like “on the right track” to you? It’s no wonder why “young people” aren’t realizing these inherent dangers when in actuality they are being taught or instructed by the Ivy League itself  “this is a good!”

If one thinks about why this phenom is so, I’ll contend the reason is self evident: It’s not only in their best interest to do so. It’s also far easier to keep a “professor” employed than it is to be employed in a business. Let me illustrate…

Today, it is easier for an 18-year-old who has never held a job to acquire a loan they will never be able to discharge for not only tens of thousands rather, some for as much as hundreds of thousands of $Dollars. Again, all in the form of student loans for degrees which may not even be applicable to any future earning potential. Let alone the potential equivalent of simultaneously living above the poverty level as they might try. But it sure goes a long way in keeping the “Ive League” employed, doesn’t it?

All this is made possible by just filling out the requisite forms, and applying. i.e., Government guaranteed student loans.

Now, compare this to trying to get a business loan via the bank.

Let’s say you’re middle-aged with a great business track record. You’re prudent when it comes to spending. You pay your bills on time. And, you have worked with little to no breaks in your business career since high school. You can demonstrate in detail relevant examples, as well as, supply detailed plans on the how, and why, you can repay a loan. Whether it be for a new enterprise or, the expansion of one.

You know what you’re shown next? It’s called the door. And if you even suggest an SBA government backed loan? The paperwork and resources needed and spent just to apply only to once again be told “no” is even more ridiculous. And that’s if you’re only asking for let’s say $25K. But the 18-year-old who still needs “to find their calling” is almost guaranteed financing even if it’s into six figure territory. Whether repayment is truly ever possible to begin with.

As ludicrous as this sounds, just wait…it gets worse.

One would think business minded people would see the dangers inherent in this form of thinking from the get-go. However, it was during this same program I heard just how far not only the idea has creeped into the business discussion. Rather, just how much it is now being embraced and argued for in all areas of it.

As I iterated earlier it’s the political season. So with that said, I was floored when I heard one of the hosts retort a response to an assertion made by one of the candidates against the Affordable Care Act. (ACA) The response was (I’m paraphrasing) “He’s arguing as to abolish the ACA. Doesn’t he have any idea how many people are benefiting from it? My own kid just got a 2 year free ride!”

Yes, a “free ride” was the term used. I was mortified when I heard this retort for it showed in all too stunning detail just how far down this central bank quarried rabbit hole we’ve descended. After all – who’s going to pay for all this “free ride?” If you own a business or run one you know exactly “who” is. And the prices to be extracted and paid have yet to even kick-in fully. That begins in earnest next year. And what won’t be heard from the business community when it all comes into fruition is one word “affordable.” Trust me.

I am, like I said earlier, “mortified” as to just how far away we’ve moved from understanding what capitalism and entrepreneurship truly is. None of this would be taking place in its current amplitude and voracity if not for the largess made possible via the Fed’s funded placebo effects that are wearing off with greater speed as more and more notice it’s been no more than a “sugar high” to begin with.

Years ago I wrote a short explanation of how I viewed the socialist model. Although it’s an oversimplification I thought It fit the current discussion. For the more I hear people who I once held in much higher esteem, I think it’s time a few others take a breath and remember where all that “free ride” comes from. To wit:

One day a person decided to call their government because, if others were getting a handout, bailout, free stuff, _________(fill in the blank) why shouldn’t they ask and get something too! For as the thinking goes: If everyone else is getting something – why not them? After all it’s free, so why not.

They then called where the phone was answered by a very monotone voice who asked what was needed.

Once they made their request the voice then stated: “We need to check for funding please hold.”

As they waited on-hold they suddenly heard a vehicle screech to a halt in front of their neighbor’s home.

They stood shocked as they watched a number of government officials forcing their way into their neighbor’s home, then leaving with what appeared to be money.

The monotone voice then came back on the line and stated: “Funding for the request had been appropriated.”

The caller now stunned asked if what they just witnessed happen at their neighbor’s home had anything to do with their request. The voice replied: “Of course. The government doesn’t have money of its own. It all comes from other tax payers such as your neighbors. And by the way, you’re not the first to ask. We get this question a lot nowadays. Just relax for your request has been approved and appropriated.”

Feeling uncomfortable with what just happened they asked if their neighbor would know it was them. The voice replied: “That’s very unlikely. However, if you’re uncomfortable with us appropriating your funding with someone so close, we could get any additional funding you may need elsewhere, say from someone in another region of the country if that makes you feel more comfortable.”

Still nervous yet, feeling better as they wouldn’t know the person directly the caller said: “Oh yes please. That would be better!” The voice stated “We’ll make a note of that to your file.” and hung up the phone.

Some time had passed and the incident near forgotten when suddenly they heard a screech of tires outside their own garage. It appeared the very same people they seen go into their neighbor’s home were now forcing their way into this former caller’s garage.

When they demanded to be told what they were doing. They were informed they had come for one of their cars. All while stating this should be of little consequence for them since they had two. Someone, somewhere needed one so one of their two was chosen to fit that need.

This former caller yelled: “You can’t do this, I just bought that one!”

Undeterred the government officials confiscated the car and informed them they should be thankful they were able to help someone out other than themselves. For the car was going to a good cause where they supply free vehicles to the needy. All while being reminded they have two, while the other has none.

As this former caller stood slack-jawed the official handed them a notice of another program that was being offered in conjunction so that they may prepare and not be caught off guard if they returned. It read…

“Since so many people are requesting and in need of these items; there must truly be a need. So please make arrangements and be prepared to cover all the repairs, gas, or other expenses of this vehicle when needed. Please refrain from stating this will be a burden for it’s shown prima facie one would not have bought a second car to begin with if they couldn’t afford all the added expenses to begin with. On that basis one should consider themselves ‘a winner of life’s lottery’ with a willingness to share in those proceeds to those less fortunate. For only people who are in need would request something for free from the government. Take solace in the thought you could afford two – let alone one. While others have none. And as always remember – we’re here to help you.”

The former caller just hung their head only to now realize one of life’s great truths.

Nothing can cost so dearly as free stuff.


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“Alarm” Rises Among Foreign Diplomats As “Ignorant, Racist” Trump Eyes White House

On Sunday we asked Europeans the following as it relates to Donald Trump: “Idiot, Clown, or Hero?”

It’s not that those are the only three ways to describe the GOP frontrunner (we’re sure we could come up with any number of other colorful adjectives both flattering and not), but they do a decent job of summarizing the three ways a Trump presidency could turn out.

That is, one can’t really picture a measured, status quo type of administration that doesn’t shake things up and to the extent President Trump does turn the world on its head, it’s either going to end in disaster (“idiot”), hilarity (“clown”), or unexpected greatness (“hero”).

Predictably, Europe’s far-right thinks Trump may be the greatest thing to ever happen to American politics. Just ask Dutch politician Geert Wilders, who said the following on Twitter: “I hope Donald Trump will be the next US President. Good for America, good for Europe. We need brave leaders.”

(Geert)

Needless to say, not everyone agrees.

In fact, we learned on Monday that foreign diplomats from multiple countries are expressing “alarm” and “concern” about the possibility of a Trump White House.

According to three US officials who spoke to Reuters, “as the (Trump) rhetoric has continued, and in some cases amped up, so, too, have concerns by certain leaders around the world.”

Just who are these “diplomats” that apparently don’t want America to “be great again,” you ask?

Well, the US officials wouldn’t name them all, but among those mentioned were “senior leaders in “at least India, South Korea, Japan and Mexico.”

Trump has already had some choice words for Japan (who it apparently hasn’t occurred to the billionaire is one of America’s closest allies on the world stage) and we all know how the frontrunner feels about America’s “friends” south of the border. We suppose India and South Korea will be on the hit list next.

Of course these countries and diplomats aren’t the first and nor will they be the last. As Reuters goes on to note, “leaders in several countries — including Britain, Mexico, France, and Canada — have already made public comments criticizing Trump’s positions [and] German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel branded him a threat to peace and prosperity.”

Here was Gabriel’s actual quote to Welt am Sonntag: “Whether Donald Trump, Marine le Pen or Geert Wilders – all these right-wing populists are not only a threat to peace and social cohesion, but also to economic development.'”

Incidentally, Marine le Pen has also come out in support of Trump. 

As for Mexico, Claudia Ruiz Massieu called Trump’s “wall plan” “absurd” last week before calling Trump himself an “ignorant racist.”

(Claudia Ruiz Massieu)

Even NATO is getting into the act. “European diplomats are constantly asking about Trump’s rise with disbelief and, now, growing panic,” a Treaty official said.

Recall that just over a week ago, former CIA director Michael Hayden suggested there would be a military revolt were Trump elected.

But as Reuters goes on to say, it’s not all alarm and other officials suggested that those expressing concern are actually not high ranking diplomats: “Another of the senior U.S. officials said the complaints are coming mostly from mid-to-low ranking diplomats – described as ‘working level’ – rather than from the most senior officials.”

In the end, it always comes to down to some combination of disbelief and worry, or, as another official put it to Reuters: “amusement to befuddlement to curiosity.”

That’s where the GOP stood six months ago: “amused, befuddled, and curious.” Now, they’re just downright terrified. We imagine the rest of the world will follow suit.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/21WZVfB Tyler Durden

Ron Paul: Do We Need To “Rebuild The Military”?

Submitted by Ron Paul, via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

The Republican presidential debates have become so heated and filled with insults, it almost seems we are watching a pro wrestling match. There is no civility, and I wonder whether the candidates are about to come to blows. But despite what appears to be total disagreement among them, there is one area where they all agree. They all promise that if elected they will “rebuild the military.”

What does “rebuild the military” mean? Has the budget been gutted? Have the useless weapons programs like the F-35 finally been shut down? No, the United States still spends more on its military than the next 14 countries combined. And the official military budget is only part of the story. The total spending on the US empire is well over one trillion dollars per year. Under the Obama Administration the military budget is still 41 percent more than it was in 2001, and seven percent higher than at the peak of the Cold War.

Russia, which the neocons claim is the greatest threat to the United States, spends about one-tenth what we do on its military. China, the other “greatest threat,” has a military budget less than 25 percent of ours.

Last week the Pentagon announced it is sending a small naval force of US warships to the South China Sea because, as Commander of the US Pacific Command Adm. Harry Harris told the House Armed Services Committee, China is militarizing the area. Yes, China is supposedly militarizing the area around China, so the US is justified in sending its own military to the area. Is that a wise use of the US military?

The US military maintains over 900 bases in 130 countries. It is actively involved in at least seven wars right now, including in Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and elsewhere. US Special Forces are deployed in 134 countries across the globe. Does that sound like a military that has been gutted?

I do not agree with the presidential candidates, but I do agree that the military needs to be rebuilt. I would rebuild it in a very different way, however. I would not rebuild it according to the demands of the military-industrial complex, which cares far more about getting rich than about protecting our country. I would not rebuild the military so that it can overthrow more foreign governments who refuse to do the bidding of Washington’s neocons. I would not rebuild the military so that it can better protect our wealthy allies in Europe, NATO, Japan, and South Korea. I would not rebuild the military so that it can better occupy countries overseas and help create conditions for blowback here at home.

No. The best way to really “rebuild” the US military would be to stop abusing the military in the first place. The purpose of the US military is to defend the United States. It is not to make the world safe for oil pipelines, or corrupt Gulf monarchies, or NATO, or Israel. Unlike the neocons who are so eager to send our troops to war, I have actually served in the US military. I understand that to keep our military strong we must constrain our foreign policy. We must adopt a policy of non-intervention and a strong defense of this country. The neocons will weaken our country and our military by promoting more war. We need to “rebuild” the military by restoring as its mission the defense of the United States, not of Washington’s overseas empire.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/21TuMwS Tyler Durden

This Is What JPM Meant When It Said The “Market Is Trapped”

Two weeks ago, JPM’s Marko Kolanovic put out a very interesting observation, according to which further gains in the S&P500 are capped to the upside due to one very popular reason: the US Dollar. What he said, in a nutshell, is that while a weaker dollar is beneficial for energy (clearly) and multinational stocks, it is a stronger dollar that has been driving the broader S&P 500 higher (which correlates ~30% with the USD) due to the dominant influence of Momentum and Low Volatility stocks in the index.

In other words, as the dollar weakens, it supports the most beaten down, energy, sector (which has now undergoing a record short squeeze), but it ultimately will pressure the broader market lower through Tech and Momo. As Kolanovic called it: “a market trapped by the USD.

This is what Kolanovic said exactly:

We are not excited about owning the S&P 500 as core exposure to risky assets. The S&P 500 is capitalization weighted, has high momentum bias, is internet heavy, and is implicitly long USD (when the USD is near historical highs). The current correlation of the S&P 500 to USD is ~30%. One of the reasons behind the positive correlation of the S&P 500 to USD is the high weight in Momentum and Low Volatility stocks in the index, and these stocks’ positive correlation to USD. At the same time, the index has low weight in Value stocks that are negatively correlated to USD (correlation of momentum, value and S&P 500 to USD are shown in Figure 1). When it comes to macro drivers of equities, the S&P 500 may be trapped by USD: it can’t rally to new highs without USD (momentum sectors, FANGs, etc.), and at the same time the strong USD is capping any significant upside due to its negative impact on EPS (via value segments such as multinationals and energy).

 

 

We didn’t have long to wait to see precisely what Kolanovic meant, as today’s market provides a perfect confirmation.

On one hand we have surging Energy stocks, not just today, but over the past five days. On the other, we have seen a steady drop lower in the USD over the same time period, which initially kept Tech and Momentum stocks flat…

 

… but today has led to a decisive move lower in 2015’s dominant tech group, the FANGs:

 

Which presents an unpleasant dilemma for the Fed: can it push the S&P higher when it is trapped by a stronger dollar, and if not, can is push the S&P higher when it is trapped by a weaker dollar as well.

What it really means, is that hopes of multiple expansion going forward can be forgotten: recall that the S&P now is already at a higher multiple (and thus more expensive) than it was at the beginning of the year; it also means that unless somehow the S&P500 constituent companies can once again find a way to grow their real earnings (which as we have showed recently are at 2010 levels), any breakout attempts for the S&P500 will fail.

And that is the real problem: how to grow revenues and earnings in a world in which global trade is crashing, in which sovereigns and consumers have record debt, and where wage growth – in the US – just posted its biggest monthly collapse in history.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/21TuLsM Tyler Durden