Authored by Attain Capital, via Valuewalk.com,

While many investors may be breathing a sigh of relief thanks to the bounce off the February low, with the S&P up 11% since the start of February – it’s still not all lollipops and rainbows out there in market-land. There’s some worrying undercurrents that could spell more trouble ahead, not to mention pros like Jeff Gundlach claiming there’s just 2% of upside in the S&P 500 and 20% downside.

Just what’s on the mind of some of the sharpest investment managers out there?  We were lucky enough to have Mike Melissinos of Melissinos Trading send along a collection of charts and indicators he’s been looking at with a worried eye, and thought it was worth sharing here. Enjoy…

Decline in Profit Margins

When margins shrink, business activity contracts. Businesses cut budgets and jobs. Recessions typically follow. Stock prices tend to fall more than 10% in recessions.

 

Price-to-Sales – Expensive

The Industrials sector provides some insight into the health of U.S. manufacturing.

At October-end, the sector recorded one of the highest P/S ratios ever. Only the two-year window of the dot-com bubble produced higher readings.

 

Industrial Production is Rolling Over

The most recent Chicago PMI reading of 42.9 has never been this low outside of a recession.

 

NYSE Margin Debt at Record Levels

Investors have borrowed capital at a record clip to buy stocks. Since 2009, investors have gone all in and then some.

Margin Debt has spent the last few months beneath the 12-month moving average. In the past 20 years, this indicator serves as a decent bear market signal.

 

Margin Debt to GDP – Higher than 2000 and 2007

As a percentage of GDP, margin debt hit a record high in 2015. The Fed played a massive role in this – allowing investors to borrow tons of money to buy stocks. But that’s another conversation for another day.

Some people think the Fed will ab
andon its plans to tighten and begin lowering rates again, or to adopt NIRP (No Interest Rate Policy). If so, the belief is that the bull market will continue.

 

Margin Debt-to-GDP and 3-Year Stock Returns

When speculation runs wild, future returns typically suffer. Today, we have wild speculation – a general belief that the bull market will continue because (insert your reasons here).

During the heydays of the dot-com and housing bubbles, margin debt-to-GDP levels were the same as today. If given a reason to a sell, over-extended investors may begin selling more intensely.

 

How Much Stock Do People Own? The 2^nd Highest Amount in History.

How to read this chart: In general, the higher the reading the lower your future returns.

Highest Reading = March 2000. The S&P 500 fell 43.40% over the next three years.

Second Highest Reading = January 2015. The S&P 500 has fallen 7% since (13 months).

Third Highest Reading = September 1968. The S&P 500 fell 1.70% over the next three years.

 

Investors Sell Dividend Funds, MLPs, REITs and High Yield

In mid-2010, the Fed launched QE2. Investors increasingly ran into assets that provided at least some yield; this being dividend funds, MLPS, REITs and high yield bonds (blue line).

Today, the blue line is rolli

ng over – possibly suggesting that investors are beginning to prefer safer cash accounts and shorter duration bonds. This may add to the selling pressure in stocks.

 

Bull to Bear Ratio – Unprecedented Optimism

The Bull to Bear Ratio over 3.0 (red lines) may suggest overconfidence and a lack of worry. If so, we have a lot of confident bulls out there.

 

Turmoil in High Yield Bonds

The “smart money” lives in the bond world. Bond prices have a tendency to move before stocks do – as evidenced by the chart below. Will this time be different than the previous three?

That was a long post, but I think you get the picture. Whether the price trend follows suit is another discussion. No one knows, especially me. But I hope this information helps you develop your own opinion and strategy to handle the ever-changing market conditions.

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Because… fundamentals…

First gold was clubbed lower, then after tagging stops above $39, WTI crude is tumbling:

 

Don’t worry this all makes sense to someone.

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After January's record-smashing CNY3.4 trillion (half a trillion dollars!) surge in aggregate credit expansion in China, the post-lunar-new-year hangover hit hard in February as credit growth tumbled 77% from Janaury's level to just CNY780 ($112bn). This is the weakest February loan growth since 2011. Drastically missing expectations, and following authorities comments on the need to "monitor" excess credit growth, all categories of total social finance registered a sharp drop.

After a huge spike in loan growth in January (which appeared to have absolutely no marginally positive impact on any real economic data)…

 

China total loan growth collapses….

 

As it appears massive amounts of loan issuance were pulled forward (before the new year), prompting the People’s Bank of China to crack down on excess lending at some banks always making the slump in February a possibility. But as Bloomberg notes, looking at the data for the first two months of the year together, credit growth remains on a rapid upward trend, and the government is targeting a faster credit expansion for 2016 as a whole. Industrial output data for January and February, slated for release Saturday, will be critical in determining the immediate policy outlook.

In the details of today’s data release, all categories of total social finance registered a sharp drop. Yuan bank loans fell to 810 billion yuan in February from 2.5 trillion yuan in January. Corporate bond issuance fell to 86 billion yuan from 454 billion yuan. Bankers acceptances dropped 370 billion yuan, after registering a 130 billion-yuan increase in January. Trust loans and entrusted loans, the other major "shadow banking" categories, fell from January’s level but remained in positive territory.

Goldman Sachs explains…

February credit data was weak. Part of the fall in the level of credit supply was because of seasonality — February credit supply is always substantially lower than that in January. However, normal seasonality certainly cannot explain the magnitude of the fall, as the level of RMB loans last February was only around Rmb 500 bn less than that in January. Another perspective on seasonality is to compare this February with last. Since the outstanding loan growth rate is in the teens, the newly increased amount is normally larger than that of the same month the prior year–but this February's level is clearly below last year's, pointing to factors other than seasonality as playing an important role. TSF flows were weak, although there was around RMB 167 bn net issuance in local government bonds in February. After adjusting for local government bonds, TSF growth was still relatively weak, with sequential (month-over-month) growth at the lowest level since mid 2015. Among the components under TSF, bank acceptance bills declined RMB 371 bn, which likely reflected the impact from discount bill frauds that surfaced in late January.

 

However, sequential M2 growth accelerated in February. Fiscal policy stance was supportive, although not quite as supportive as February last year, and FX flows likely became less of a drag.

 

The weakness in February credit data was policy driven, in our view, and should be viewed in light of exceedingly strong January data. Although the government likely wanted to loosen policy in light of renewed downward pressures on growth, which are due in large part to weak exports, the actual amount of loosening in January may have breached policymakers’ comfort zone (consistent with reports on PBOC guidance to slow lending in mid January).

 

Concerns about rising CPI inflation, leverage and public perception remain key constraints on the extent of monetary policy loosening. Although doves tend to dismiss the rise in CPI inflation, which has been mostly food driven, as driven by temporary factors especially adverse weather conditions, hawks may view it differently as the result of the very loose monetary conditions in January. Historically, China's CPI inflation is almost always mainly food driven and its behavior is very pro-cyclical, contrary to that in many developed economies. As food prices continue to be high in March, CPI is likely to remain at above 2% in March, in our opinion, limiting the extent of short-term policy loosening. There also is a rising number of media comments on policy stance questioning whether the high credit growth in January is turning out to be another Rmb 4 trillion stimulus, which may make the case for loosening more difficult for policymakers who are in favor of this.

 

Strong January money and credit data led to overly high market expectations about future liquidity supply, which likely gave domestic equity market and commodities market a boost recently. Today's downside surprise may raise questions about whether the government still intends to loosen. Our view is it still does, just not as aggressively as it appeared after the release of January data. The combined level of liquidity supply in the first two months of the year was still around RMB 700 bn, higher than during the same period of last year, which should support domestic demand growth, especially fixed asset investment, and partially offset the weakness in external demand. While the problem of “policy laziness” (a phrase coined by PM Li to describe the lack of action by officials tasked with implementing stimulus) certainly has not been eliminated, the severity likely has lessened amid heightened administrative pressures from the leadership. Aggregate demand growth on the other hand likely weakened from the high level reached in November and December (based on IP sequential growth). As such, we think reaching the annual GDP growth target of 6.5-7.0% will be a challenging task and will require continued policy support, including monetary policy.

What is potentially most troubling is that despite all this yuuge issuance and declining credit quality, yields on China corporate bonds continue to compress in the biggest bubble that noone is talking about…

 

And as Bloomberg concludes, the signals from China’s policy makers remain somewhat confused. Ahead of the National People’s Congress, the PBOC flagged a shift to a "slight easing bias" in monetary policy. In the last few days they have appeared to try to row that back, saying the "prudent" policy stance remains essentially unchanged. That said, a target for 13% growth in M2 in 2016, up from 12% in 2015, and a 13% target for expanding aggregate finance, suggests the government is preparing to continue the credit stimulus. A 13% expansion in aggregate finance implies 17.9 trillion yuan in new lending and equity issuance in 2016, up from 15.3 trillion yuan in 2015.

Which is notable since M1 growth and M2 growth missed expectations significantly in February (M1 +17.4% vs +18.09% exp and M2 +13.3% vs 13.7% exp.)

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Submitted by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

Moody’s Investors Service placed 11 West Texas governments and municipalities under review for a potential downgrade last week.

The review will consider downgrading the credit ratings of 11 local governments, which include Odessa and Midland, Pecos County, and 7 hospital districts. The review would affect US$477 million in outstanding public debt.

Everyone knows a downgrade is bad news, but how bad is bad—really?

The Moody’s ratings have little forward-looking value, and are more a reflection of what the market already knows—that times are tough, and lending in this industry—or within the geographical boundaries of oil-dependent locations—comes at a risk.

Moody’s will consider the oil downturn and the ability of each government to adapt in this difficult environment. They review the debt burden and liquidity levels, and even management strategies. This particular review focuses specifically on the local governments and districts that have a proportionately high rate of tax exposure to the oil and gas industry—mainly from players in the Permian Basin.

Although a credit downgrade from Moody’s doesn’t spell doom and gloom for West Texas, the ratings do, to some extent, influence the confidence of lenders and investors with interests in the area.

But the fact that the oil industry is facing difficult times is not news. That the Permian Basin is in trouble is not news. That oil companies are cutting costs, reining in exploration activities, and laying off employees is also not news. That the tax bases of these locations are shrinking—again, not news.

Of the 11 entities now under review, the McCamey County Hospital District, just south of the City of Odessa, which is also under review; and Reagan Hospital District, just south-east of Odessa, have the least favorable ratings of those under review—a rating of Baa2, which is defined by Moody’s as “medium grade, with some speculative elements and moderate credit risk.” This is still considered an investment-grade rating, but a downgrade to the next rung on the ratings ladder to Baa3 is as low as it can go before it sits solidly in the speculative-grade rating.

Image courtesy of Clineshalecentral.com

A downgrade for these two nearly adjacent districts would likely mean higher interest rates on any debt, but little else. The market itself is more effective in stifling the economic activities within oil heavy areas.

To add perspective to this potential downgrade, Reagan County, Texas, has a total population of 3,601 as of 2013, while Upton County, immediately to the west and encompassing the McCamey County Hospital District, boasts a population of 3,372. The largest city in Reagan County is Big Lake, population 3,139. Other than oil wells, Big Lake has a Subway, a courthouse, a hardware store, an auto parts store, a small grocery store, and a smattering of other businesses, many of which have shuttered within the last year.

What Reagan County does have is a day population of 12,000, with 115 currently producing operators, and 1,573 producing leases. Big Lake has 13,235 wells on file—about four times its resident population, and was responsible for producing 9,542,592 MCF of gas and 2,442,882 barrels of oil in 2015. In 2014, Big Lake votes approved a $32 million bond for a new hospital—a move in response to the increased demands placed on the city by the oil industry.

The people-to-oil ratio in nearby Upton County is similarly situated, with 81 current operators, 4,341 leases, and 16,002 wells.

Moody’s reported that the review may take up to 90 days to complete.

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Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

The Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) wins the prize as the world’s worst central bank – at least for the time being.  Venezuela’s annual inflation has been in triple-digit territory for more than three years.  As the accompanying chart shows, the implied annual inflation rate soared as high as 800% last summer.  Since then, inflation has fallen to its current 320% annual rate.  This is still well above the phony 180.9% annual rate reported by the BCV in December.

Yes, the BCV’s inflation number is phony.  The only reliable method for calculating inflation in countries where the rates are elevated, like Venezuela, is to observe changes in the black market (read: free market) exchange-rate data.  These changes can then be translated into implied inflation rates.  It’s nothing more than an application of standard purchasing power (PPP) theory.  When inflation is elevated, it is deadly accurate, and it is the method I use to estimate Venezuela’s inflation rate.

While the triple-digit inflation tragedy coincided with the rise of the late Hugo Chávez and his Bolivarian Revolution, serious inflation problems have plagued Venezuela – courtesy of the BCV – for over 30 years.  The accompanying chart makes that clear.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1QMzdm3 Steve H. Hanke

Earlier this week, when looking at the rapidly fraying dynamics in the all-important Treasury repo market, we explained that as a result of the unprecedented, record shortage of underlying paper, the repo rate for the 10Y has plunged to the lowest on record (and even surpassing it on occasion), the -3.00% “fails” rate, an unstable, broken state characterized by a surge in failures to deliver and receive, when one party fails to deliver a U.S. Treasury to another party by the date previously agreed by the parties. Think of it as a margin call issued on a stock in which the responsible party refuses to comply, and is instead slapped with a token penalty, or “fails” fee.

This is precisely what has been going on with the Treasury market for over a week, ever since last Friday when we first pointed out the precarious collapse in the repo rate on the 10Y – traditionally the best indicator of stress in lending markets.

There was some expectation that after this week’s 10Y and 30Y auctions, that the shortage would moderate, however so far that has not happened, and now the last possible renormalization date is when these auctions settle early next week.

For now, however, things are going from bad to worse, and as Stone McCarthy shows in the following two charts, it is no longer just the 10Y which is in trouble: so is the 30Y, which as of this morning is trading near the fails range, or -2.40% in repo.

 

But more importantly, we no longer have to rely on the repo market to see just how broken the Treasury market has been this past week as a result of what has been an unprecedented shorting onslaught. As of this morning, the NY Fed’s Primary Dealer database was updarted for the most recent failures to deliver and receive data, and it is a doozy when it comes to 10Y paper. 

Here are the facts:

• 10Y fails to deliver surged to $32.3b for week ended March 2 vs $132m previous week and fails to receive jumped to $31.8b vs $259m, both highest since June 2013, amid increased short base and lack of supply before this week’s auction.
• Total fails to deliver rose to $178.1b vs $139.5b; fails to receive rose to $171.9b vs $135.3b
• UST ex-TIPS fails to deliver $127b vs $70b, highest since Jan. 6; fails to receive $127.7b vs $74.6b, highest since Dec. 30

The one chart that summarizes what is going on is shown below: as of this moment, there are more “failures” both to deliver and receive than just one time in history, June 2013. 

 

Using the Fed’s revised data set, it is sadly impossible to go further back than April 2013 to see how this compares to the broken Treasury market around the time of the Great Financial Crisis, but we are confident it is comparable.

One thing is certain: as a result of the Fed’s massive balance sheet holdings of Treasury securities, and the dramatic shorting onslaught, the Treasury market – at least as of this moment – is broken.

Here are some further thoughts on this disturbing matter from RBC rates strategist Michael Cloherty who says that “while surge in Treasury fails affecting OTR 10s and 30s “should largely clear up” when this week’s auctions settle, “we are viewing this event as a glimpse of the post-Fed reinvestment future. When the Fed eventually stops rolling over maturing Treasuries, there will be no lendable supply of the on-the- runs through the SOMA,” meaning that “fails in on-the-runs will be chronic and protracted, bloating balance sheets and raising questions with certain PTF models”

He adds that treasury fails “have been trending higher for some time,” but most have been “fairly short-lived off-the-run fails.” This time it may be different as drivers of current episode include “the fact that these issues were auctioned at the yield lows, so some investors are reluctant to sell them at a loss.”

We can only hope that the Fed will address this most important “broken market” before it is too late, unfortunately for that to happen the Fed would have to sell some of its Treasury holdings, and that would unleash a risk off wave across all asset classes, which as Mario Draghi showed yesterday beyond a doubt, is simply not acceptable to central banks.

Source

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With ETF shorts falling to 2016 lows, WTI crude futures are surging once again (despite yesterday’s news that there will be no “production freeze.” Near $39, this is the highest since the first day of trading in 2016.

 

Sending WTI crude to its highest since 2015…

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Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

We are not the first or only ones to point out that the current post-February stock rally has been less than enthusiastically received by the trading community. While there are some exceptions, most intermediate-term sentiment gauges are either leaning towards fear levels or, at best, neutral. One example comes from the equity options market where daily call buying in recent days has reached a nearly unprecedented streak of subdued levels relative to put buying. This has typically been a bullish sign for the market – however, the current signal is anything but typical.

To wit: We’ve covered the International Securities Exchange Equity Call/Put Ratio (ISEE) on several occasions over the years. As a refresher, due to its unique construction, the ISEE has been a favorite indicator of ours for highlighting short-term inflection points in investor sentiment. The ISEE excludes firm trades that are quite likely to be hedges and also excludes volume on closing positions when calculating the Call/Put ratio. Therefore, the ISE argues that its ratio is a more pure indication of investor sentiment than some of the other options ratios.

The 100 level in the ISEE has historically often been a signal that options traders are becoming fearful (100 means equal call and put volume). Dips below that level have been common near short to intermediate-term lows in the market as traders have either stormed into puts and/or have shied away from buying call options. Therefore, stock market returns have been quite bullish following such readings. And they have been particularly bullish after the ISEE has been below 100 for consecutive days. This had occurred just 11 times since the inception of the ISEE data in 2006.

Now, you can make it 12. Only, it hasn’t just been 2 days in a row, but 4 that the ratio has been below the 100 level. This is 2nd longest streak ever, behind the 5-day streak from February 5-11 this year.

 

 

These are the dates of all 12 occurrences:

• March 17-19, 2008 (3 days)
• November 17-19, 2008 (3 days)
• June 20-21, 2013
• September 22-23, 2014
• October 13-14, 2014
• December 11-12, 2014
• January 20-21, 2015
• July 30-August 3, 2015 (3 days)
• August 6-7, 2015
• December 17-18, 2015
• February 5-11, 2016 (5 days)
• March 4-9, 2016 (4 days) 

You may recognize some of the dates right off the bat as short to intermediate-term lows. Indeed, the general pattern has been that, after a few volatile days, the S&P 500 consistently out-performs over the next few weeks to months. Here are the statistics:

As the table shows, S&P 500 returns 2 days after the streak ended were a toss-up. Amazingly, by the following day, 10 of the 11 were positive. And the performance stayed good in the weeks-months following as well. 9 of the 11 were positive 1-2 weeks later. And the median return after 1 month was +3.8%, 3 times the S&P 500′s normal  return. So, do we have a green light here to buy stocks? Not so fast…

The setup surrounding the current version of this streak is somewhat atypical compared to the others. And the reasons that make it atypical somewhat align it with prior instances which failed to lead to positive returns going forward, namely September 2014 and August 2015. Why is it atypical? The readings are occurring into a 1-month rally, rather than into a selloff, which is the norm. Consider the following:

• At +7.40%, it is the only streak besides August 2015 that occurred when the S&P 500′s 1-month return was positive. Add in September 2014 (-0.76%), and you have the only 3 events with 1-month returns better than -2.35%.
• Similarly, at roughly 18 yesterday, it is the only event besides last August and September 2014 to occur while the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) was trading at less than an 19-handle.

What this all spells out is that our present circumstances do not necessarily paint the picture of short-term “fear” that has accompanied most of the other occurrences. It does not guarantee that the stock market will follow in the footsteps of last August and September 2014 and suffer considerable weakness from here. However, in our view, the circumstances surrounding the current streak definitely temper the confidence in an imminent, fear-driven short-term bounce.

Furthermore, the increasing occurrences of sub-100 readings over the past 18 months are causing us to question the usefulness of this once very accurate indicator, at least when occurring in these atypical circumstances. Thus, while we certainly would not argue that this is a bearish signal, it can’t be trusted as the bullish signal it once was.

*  *  *

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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Opposites attract? Softly-spoken Dr. Ben Carson is reportedly set to endorse The Donald this morning but Trump’s press conference will, we are sure, have more to offer than just that…

As The Hill reports, Trump confirmed the endorsement on Thursday night’s GOP debate, saying Carson “will be very much involved” in advising him on education, calling it Carson’s “expertise.”

The retired neurosurgeon is expected to accompany Trump on the campaign trail as the real estate mogul attempts to cement his lead in Florida ahead of next week’s pivotal primary in the Sunshine State.

Live Feed:

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Craig Hemke TFMetals Report: Demand For Physical Gold/Silver Will Break The System

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 50 day moving average in gold has turned up and it has bullishly crossed through the 100 dma – it has also bullishly crossed through the 200 dma…It’s almost like the HFT hedge fund programs have been flipped from “sell every rally” to now “buy every dip” because the technical picture is so good. – Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke on the Shadow of Truth

There’s debate raging in the precious metals community if and when a big raid on the precious metals market will commence. Today, for instance, gold has drifted higher in overnight trading only to be smacked pretty hard when the Comex opened. That’s nothing new. But what’s new, given the way in which the precious metals market is set up, is that after being taken down $12 by the criminal traders on the Comex, gold grinded higher until it was only down a couple bucks by the time the stock market closed. Even more interesting is the fact that the mining stocks (HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index) rejected repeated attempts to put them negative on the day and finished up over 6 points – 3.6% – on the day.

The trading pattern of the precious metals sector – at least for now – has defied all expectations of the market given that the technical factors in place now have historically ushered in a vicious takedown of the sector.

This data that I refer to when I talk about the bank picture, whether its the Commitment of Traders report or the Bank Participation report – it’s all dubious crap anyway because its generated by the criminals at the CFTC…when they crank out these reports, we’re supposed to take them seriously in the first place? The CFTC is criminal co-conspirator [in the precious metals manipulation scheme] – Craig “Turn Ferguson” Hemke, SoT

A big variable in the expectation of a big sell-off in gold and silver is the COT “structure.” As of last Tuesday, the “Commercial Sector,” which primarily the bullion banks, is net short 171,000 gold future contracts. The hedge funds segment of the COT is net long 104k gold future contracts. The “other reportables” and “non-reportable (retail trader) segments make up the rest of the long side of the bullion bank short position.

The net short of the bullion banks is 17.1 million ounces. Currently, the Comex vaults are showing 377k ounces of gold in the “deliverable” account and 6.8 million total ounces. This ratio of short interest to the amount of physical underlying is absurd. Technically it’s illegal because, as Craig discusses in the interview (see below), the CFTC continuously defies the laws in place and enables the banks to skirt mandated position limits on the Comex.

What will happen if one of these the hedge funds decide to stand for delivery? If just 50% of the hedge funds stand for delivery. While it’s true that in any given delivery period that, at most, 1% of the long open interest stands for delivery, the laws of probability suggest that one of these days a significant portion of the longs will decide to take delivery. This will bust the Comex.

In the interview session below, we discuss this issue with Craig and several other factors that are affecting the markets right now and the Central Banks ability to manipulate the markets. At some point the demand for physical gold/silver will break the system:

Someday something will change and the confidence scheme will fail. Every uptick [of gold] increases the pressure on that confidence scheme which is why the banks are fighting it so hard…in the end they are just not going to be able to…Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke on SoT

CLICK TO WATCH/LISTEN

 

 

 

Rory Hall, Editor-in-Chief of The Daily Coin, has written over 700 articles and produced more than 200 videos about the precious metals market, economic and monetary policies as well as geopolitical events since 1987. His articles have been published by Zerohedge, SHTFPlan, Sprott Money, GoldSilver and Silver Doctors, SGTReport, just to name a few. Rory has contributed daily to SGTReport since 2012. He has interviewed experts such as Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Dr. Marc Faber, Eric Sprott, Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff, to name but a few. Visit The Daily Coin website and The Daily Coin YouTube channels to enjoy original and some of the best economic, precious metals, geopolitical and preparedness news from around the world.

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

Craig Hemke TFMetals Report: Demand For Physical Gold/Silver Will Break The System

Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL) 

 

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