Tag: finance

While the government’s survey of consumer confidence saw new cycle highs – progressing the multiple expansion dream – the University of Michigan (private) survey has been falling for 3 months and is now at its lowest since November. Both current conditions (reality) and expectations (hope) missed expectations (overall index missed by the most in 5 months) but “hope” did rise modestly from 69.4 to 70.0. Must have been a ‘winter stormy’ week when UMich surveyed consumers…

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fsmKxQ Tyler Durden

Presented with little comment aside to ask… sustainable? Every string will be pulled today to ensure that the S&P 500 closes in the green for Q1, this is just the beginning salvo…

 

 

USDJPY may need to ramp to 102.75 today to assure Q1 green close

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 28, 2014

 

 

“we don’t need  no steenking news…”

 

In english – the algos, in all their glory, used the power of JPY to spark momentum into stocks and run all the stops through the open… we suspect this will not last given the total lack of follow through in any other asset class.

 

as we noted earlier…

USDJPY is about to be shocked by the bullish news that it is 9:30 am

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 28, 2014

As an add on, Copper has retraced 50% of its CCFD-liquidity-driven downswing…

 

So China is fixed too?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jYceBM Tyler Durden

Two weeks ago, when Bank of America found that its weekly retail spending data has continued coming in far weaker than expected compared to 2013, it did the laughable: it blamed not the weather in general, but one storm in particular, to wit: “once again adverse weather potentially impacted spending last week, as the storm “Titan” moved across the US over the weekend of March 1st and 2nd and was followed by yet another cold spell.” Two weeks later, after shockingly BofA finds precisely the same weakness continuing into the end of a balmy March, it no longer even bothers looking for excuses. The sad reality: there are none.

Our weekly internal BAC card (credit+debit) retail ex. gas spend data for last week (ended March 21st) rose 2.7% over the same week last year, broadly in line with the 3.0% increase the prior week and sharply above the 1.7% YoY spending growth in February and 1.0% for January. However, while retail spending thus appear on an accelerating path away from the cold months, growth rates remain well below last year’s numbers of 5.3% and 3.5% for the third and second week of March, respectively. Finally, note that our internal data is often not a good predictor of the official Census Bureau data.

 

Of course, the data would be a great predictor if it was “predicting” a bullish print.

We wonder how many months of balmy spring, summer and fall weather it will take before economists finally admit that the drop in consumer spending has nothing to do with climatic conditions (hint: Amazon.com), and everything to do with the fact that consumer are tapped out. Wild guess here: many.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hDduHE Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Mr Johnson said the whole attitude in the UK was that national security trumped press freedom and that the newspaper should not publish a word…We were threatened that we would be closed down. We were accused of endangering national security and people’s lives. It left us in a very difficult position.

 

– Paul Johnson, deputy editor of The Guardian

As if you didn’t already recognize the serious threat to press freedom in the UK following authorities holding Glenn Greenwald’s partner David Miranda for eight hours under “terrorism” laws as he transferred through London’s Heathrow airport. It’s not just the traditional press at risk in the UK either, the government is hard at work censoring the internet itself via ridiculous filters.

Now we find out from the Irish Times that:

The Guardian newspaper was threatened with closure by the British government over the Edward Snowden spying affair, the Radiodays Europe conference has been told.

 

The paper’s deputy editor Paul Johnson said Britain’s intelligence agencies visited them and told them they would be closed if they persisted in printing Snowden’s revelations of mass surveillance involving the National Security Agency (NSA) in the United Statesand the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) in the UK. Mr Snowden is now in Russia, where he has temporary asylum. He is wanted by the US authorities on espionage charges.

 

Speaking at the Conference Centre Dublin (CCD), Mr Johnson said the Snowden material was much more difficult to work on than the WikiLeaks tapes because of the intense scrutiny the newspaper was subjected to by the British intelligence services.

 

Mr Johnson revealed that a senior civil servant had told the paper’s editor, Alan Rusbridger, that the “prime minister, the deputy prime minister, the foreign secretary, the home secretary and the attorney general have got a problem with you”.

 

Mr Johnson said the whole attitude in the UK was that national security trumped press freedom and that the newspaper should not publish a word. This was in contrast to the US, where the Snowden revelations had led to a debate about how far intelligence agencies should go to protect the state.

 

“We were threatened that we would be closed down. We were accused of endangering national security and people’s lives. It left us in a very difficult position,” he said.

Full article here.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gJeHC1 Tyler Durden

Moments ago the BEA reported February personal income and spending which were expected to show a modest pick up following what all economists have classified as the “polar vortex” winter doldrums. While it remains to be seen whether and if spending, and income, will indeed pick up considering the deplorable state of the US household’s earnings prospects, both metrics came precisely in line with consensus estimates at 0.3% (if not those of DB’s always amusing permabull Joe LaVorgna who expected a 0.6% increase in spending).

 

The personal savings rate picked up by the smallest possible margin, rising from 4.2% to 4.3% in February as a resuit of a downward revision in January spending (from 0.4% to 0.2%), amounting to $544.5 billion in February, compared with $535.9 billion in January.

 

The good news: US consumers can still be tapped for half a trillion in savings when it comes to bean counts of purchases.

Next, we highlight the danger of taking any data out of the government at face value. Recall that last month, the spending on services according to spending data, hit an all time record of over $70 billion:

 

Well, the is no longer the case, as the Jan service spending data has been revised well lower, to just $50 billion, however at the expense of a continuation in spending in February, when another $26 billion was forked over for “services” mostly of the healthcare kind:

 

As for spending on real, durable goods? It declined for the third month in a row, down by another $2.3 billion to $1250 billion, the lowest since March of 2013.

At least the US has Obamacare to keep spending afloat.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gxAnjH Tyler Durden

SSDD… the overnight ramps are getting weaker and the morning monkey-hammerings of precious metals are not as aggressive but once again, for the benefit of those playing at home, USDJPY is surging in an attempt to drag stocks healthily green and prove that everything is fixed and gold is being dumped to also prove that the status quo rules and barbarous relics are a thing of the risk-strewn past.

 

The problem is… stocks are not behaving as they should – no ramp

 

But Gold’s deja vu is now 6 days old…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hCQwAj Tyler Durden

While the US and its allies are locked in a war of words which Russia has so far been completely ignoring, things continue to move both literally (along the Russian side of Ukraine’s eastern border) and metaphorically. Overnight, ousted President Viktor Yanukovych has called for a national referendum to determine each region’s “status within Ukraine”. As a reminder, the Kremlin still refuses to accept the current Ukraine government, claiming it got there only after an illegitimate, violent overthrow of Yanukovich. “As a president who is with you with all my thoughts and soul, I urge every sensible citizen of Ukraine: Don’t give in to impostors! Demand a referendum on the status of each region within Ukraine.”

In his first comments since Crimea voted to become part of Russia, Mr Yanukovych denounced fresh presidential elections planned for 25 May. BBC adds that at the same time Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, said that all Ukrainian service personnel loyal to Kiev have now left Crimea and all military installations there are under Russian control.

And while the Russian noose continues to tighten, first around East Ukraine, it almost appears as if developments in Kiev are doing their best to help out Putin. Perhaps Kiev took a little too much to heart the statement by Schauble that Ukraine has Greece as a role model to look up to, because while it has skipped the entire economic collapse phase (for now), it has jumped straight to the infighting with its ultra-nationalist, far-right “Right Sector” elements, which were certainly one of the main factors for the ascent of the current acting government and the overthrow of the last one.

FT adds that the ex-president’s call, reported by Russian media, came as members of a radical rightwing fringe group, Right Sector, staged a second protest outside Kiev’s parliament in little more than 12 hours. The reason: Ukraine’s interim President Olexander Turchynov has condemned the ultra-nationalist Right Sector, saying the group is bent on “destabilisation”.

Right Sector activists blocked the parliament (Rada) building in Kiev on Thursday night and smashed windows. They blamed the interior minister for the killing of a Right Sector leader. From BBC:

At a parliament session on Friday, Mr Turchynov, called the Right Sector rally outside parliament “an attempt to destabilise the situation in Ukraine, in the very heart of Ukraine – Kiev. That is precisely the task that the Russian Federation’s political leadership is giving to its special services”.

 

Right Sector activists are furious over the death of Oleksandr Muzychko, better known as Sashko Bily, one of their leaders. The interior ministry said he died on Monday night in a shoot-out with police in a cafe in Rivne in western Ukraine.

 

A member of the far-right group in Rivne threatened revenge for the killing of Mr Muzychko.

 

“We will avenge ourselves on [Interior Minister] Arsen Avakov for the death of our brother. The shooting of Sashko Bily is a contract killing ordered by the minister,” Right Sector member Roman Koval was quoted as saying by the Ukrayinska Pravda website.

Keep track of the internal strife as the Right Sector played a prominent role in the Kiev protests – and the clashes with police – which led to the removal of Mr Yanukovych from power. Its main support base is in western Ukraine. Should the government escalate its relations with the “Right Sector” the new government may be overthrown just as fast as its predecessor.

It is here that Russia may suddenly have found an unwilling “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” ally. It perhaps explains why Russia was just cited as escalating the war of words yet again. Via Reuters:

• SENIOR RUSSIAN SECURITY OFFICIAL TELLS PUTIN THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE OF EXTERNAL THREATS TO RUSSIA FROM THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES – INTERFAX NEWS AGENCY
• SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS “LAWFUL DESIRE OF PEOPLES OF CRIMEA AND EASTERN UKRAINIAN REGIONS TO BE WITH RUSSIA IS CAUSING HYSTERIA IN THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES” – INTERFAX
• SECURITY OFFICIAL SAYS WESTERN NATIONS SEEKING TO WEAKEN RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN A VITALLY IMPORTANT REGION, RUSSIA TAKING “OFFENSIVE COUNTERINTELLIGENCE MEASURES” IN RESPONSE – INTERFAX

Last, and certainly least, there is Obama who said in a CBS interview that Russia “needs to move back the troops” from Ukraine border. Obama says Putin is “certainly misreading American foreign policy” adding that  “we have no interest in encircling Russia.”

The problem is that Russia certainly has an interest in encircling Ukraine: “You’ve seen a range of troops massing along that border under the guise of military exercises,” Obama says “these are not what Russia would normally be doing.”

Perhaps Obama should explain the whole “costs” thing again, because over a month in and Russia still hasn’t gotten the memo.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1martc3 Tyler Durden

• Crimea Resolution Backed by U.S. Barely Gets UN Majority (BBG)
• Russian Buildup Stokes Worries (WSJ)
• As reported here first: China’s Developers Face Shakeout as Easy Money Ends (BBG)
• U.S. House Poised to Clear Sanctions Called Putin Warning (BBG)
• Bitcoin Prices Plunge on Report PBOC Orders Accounts Shut (BBG)
• Search for lost Malaysian jet shifts significantly after new lead (Reuters)
• Russian fund taps China and Middle East (FT)
• Long battle looms between U.S. college, athletes seeking to unionize (Reuters)
• Official warns EU-US trade deal at risk over investor cases (FT)
• New iPhone likely out in September, Nikkei daily says (AFP)
• Ukraine’s Tymoshenko to Run for President (WSJ)
• Deutsche Boerse, Bank of China agree closer cooperation (Reuters)
• Japan to Front-Load Spending in FY14 Budget as Tax-Bump Looms (BBG)
• Fed feels backlash over stress tests (FT)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc said on Thursday it would repay creditors an additional $17.9 billion next week, its fifth distribution since a bankruptcy judge approved its liquidation plan in December 2011. After that money is returned, Lehman’s creditors will have been paid more than $80 billion – $15 billion more than the bank’s initial estimate of how much would be returned to creditors. (http://ift.tt/1gIcwPc)

* PG&E Corp said it expects to face federal criminal charges over the 2010 natural-gas pipeline explosion that killed eight in San Bruno, California. The utility said on Thursday it expects to be charged with violating the federal Pipeline Safety Act, which dates back to 1968. (http://ift.tt/1gIcwPi)

* Some lawmakers and others are calling on the Securities and Exchange Commission to cut the time that large investors can secretly amass shares in a company. Investors who own 5 percent of a stock get 10 days to announce their holdings, according to a 1968 regulatory. (http://ift.tt/1gIcx5C)

* Wal-Mart Stores Inc has sued Visa Inc for more than $5 billion, claiming the card network charged unreasonably high fees when the retailer’s customers paid with plastic. (http://ift.tt/1gIcx5G)

* Private-equity firm TPG is in advanced discussions to take a roughly 15 percent stake in Chobani Inc, said a person familiar with the matter, as the maker of Greek yogurt seeks to raise capital that could value it at up to $5 billion. (http://ift.tt/1gIcvuv)

 

FT

Russia’s state-backed fund has tapped money from sovereign wealth funds in China and the Middle East, hoping to show it can attract foreign capital into the country even if the United States and European investors turn away following the annexation of Crimea.

French oil giant Total is in talks to partner with Russia’s Lukoil on its shale oil projects in Russia, as Moscow targets unconventional resources to replace falling production at ageing fields in Siberia.

Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s new chief executive, announced the company’s long-awaited Office suite on Apple Inc’s iPad at his first public appearance, signalling that he is prepared to unbundle Windows to catch up on mobile and the cloud.

Brazilian public prosecutors have asked that courts block the restructuring plan of former billionaire Eike Batista’s oil group and force him to inject $1 billion of his own money into the company.

Graeme Shelley, a former broker at Novum Securities received a two-year suspended sentence after pleading guilty to insider-trading charges, admitting to trading 14 stocks using inside information between 2008 and 2010.

 

NYT

* A day after Citigroup Inc’s capital plan failed the Fed’s stress test for the second time in three years, bank executives were still struggling to understand the decision and how best to respond. (http://ift.tt/1phfnjl)

* As the United States seeks to strengthen sanctions on Moscow for its occupation of Crimea, energy experts say the powerful Russian oil industry would make a robust target. But any penalties on energy investments, technology transfers and financial transactions would most likely also punish Western oil companies like Exxon Mobil that are investing heavily in Russia. (http://ift.tt/1phfkEe)

* Microsoft Corp on Thursday introduced its long-awaited suite of applications for Apple Inc’s iPad tablets. The suite includes Word, PowerPoint and Excel. (http://ift.tt/1jCtl05)

* When CBS Outdoor Americas Inc begins trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, it will represent not only the dawn of a new publicly traded advertising company in a hot market for IPOs, but also the latest step in the evolution of its parent company, CBS Corp. (http://ift.tt/1phfqeM)

* Italian fashion house Versace said it started 2014 on a strong footing thanks to a double-digit rise in sales from its own shops in the first quarter. The luxury brand may seek stock market listing in the future after the recent sale of a 20 percent stake to the private equity group Blackstone. (http://ift.tt/1jCtiBm)

* Walmart Stores Inc sued Visa Inc for $5 billion, accusing the credit and debit card network of excessively high card swipe fees, several months after the retailer opted out of a class-action settlement between merchants and Visa and MasterCard. (http://ift.tt/1jCtl09)

* New York State and federal inspectors have completed a second round of safety checks of train tracks and oil tanker cars in an effort to prevent disastrous derailments and spills of volatile crude from North Dakota’s Bakken region. The inspection effort, which generally found only minor and easily correctable defects, is part of a proactive safety effort started in January after several severe accidents. (http://ift.tt/1phfqeO)

* PG&E said it would probably face federal criminal charges for its role in a fatal gas pipeline explosion in the San Francisco Bay Area in September 2010. The company said it had been in discussions with federal prosecutors to reach a resolution, but it now expects prosecutors will say that PG&E’s past operating practices violated the federal Pipeline Safety Act(http://ift.tt/1phfqeQ)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Former Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty’s former chief of staff has been accused of orchestrating a plan to purge government records after Ontario’s controversial cancellation of two gas-fired power plants, according to police documents. (http://ift.tt/1dyYRJz)

* Canada’s new Finance Minister Joe Oliver is taking a hands-off approach to the mortgage market, signal ling that unlike his predecessor he does not want to interfere in the rate-setting decisions of the banks. (http://ift.tt/1jWDX5P)

Reports in the business section:

* Lululemon Athletica Inc is paving the way for an accelerated international expansion as its new leader looks to pump up the business and patch up its merchandise and image problems. (http://ift.tt/1jWE0hO)

NATIONAL POST

* Confirming his status as the front-runner in the Quebec election, Liberal leader Philippe Couillard came under heavy fire from the three other leaders during the campaign’s final televised debate Thursday. (http://ift.tt/1jWE0hW)

* Toronto Mayor Rob Ford was unable to avoid questions about his crack cocaine scandal during the second mayoral election debate, which saw other candidates take jabs at his personal problems, and audience members heckle him when he resorted to familiar slogans. (http://ift.tt/1dyYUFc)

FINANCIAL POST

* Banks in Canada may finally be ready to battle over mortgage rates but the war for customers has been raging for months now. Falling bond yields, which long-term fixed rate loans are priced off of, had already allowed discounters to cut rates well below the 3 percent threshold that makes finance officials in Ottawa nervous. (http://ift.tt/1dyYSxf)

* Canada’s largest securities regulator, the Ontario Securities Commission, is attempting to rehabilitate its long-standing image as a toothless tiger by adding new potent weapons to its arsenal of powers it hopes will result in successful prosecutions of market miscreants. (http://ift.tt/1dyYSxk)

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China’s securities regulator encouraged companies to list on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations Co, also known as the “New Third Board”, or on overseas stock markets. The regulator is currently dealing with a backlog of firms waiting to list on the country’s main boards.

SECURITIES TIMES

– The Ministry of Environmental Protection will spend 1,747 billion yuan ($281.18 billion) to curb air pollution, an engineer from the ministry said in an environmental industry conference. The money will be mainly spent on developing clean energy, car pollution controls and stepping up central heating, he added.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– China will establish a national real estate ownership registration system over the next three years, the head of the Ministry of Land and Resources said at a conference. The real estate ownership registration system has been widely expected to pave the way for implementing a property tax in China.

CHINA DAILY

– Lenovo Group says it is aiming to sell 1 million smart TVs in China in 2014.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– Nikon will give Chinese owners of D600 cameras a free replacement after being targeted by state media in a consumer rights probe.

– Eighty percent of Shanghai’s college students set to graduate in June have not found jobs, nor enrolled for further study or plan to travel abroad. Job competition remains fierce for college graduates even as the wider industrial workforce shrinks.

 

Britain

The Telegraph

ENERGY BOSS WARNS OF BLACKOUTS AS COMPETITION PROBE ‘STOPS INVESTMENT IN POWER PLANTS’

The boss of Britain’s biggest energy company has warned households they face an “increasing risk” of blackouts because of an investigation into whether the industry is ripping off consumers. (http://ift.tt/1rIBWzv)

ROLLS-ROYCE AWARDED $1.1 BLN ENGINE DEAL

Rolls-Royce has been awarded a $1.1 billion deal from All Nippon Airways to provide engines for the troubled Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. (http://ift.tt/1hAVsG3)

GATWICK AGREES SEVEN-YEAR PRICING DEAL WITH EASYJET

Gatwick has agreed a seven-year pricing deal with its biggest customer, easyJet, after being freed up by the UK’s airports regulator to strike agreements directly with airlines. (http://ift.tt/1hAVtK5)

PENSIONS CRISIS WARNING IF SCOTLAND VOTES YES

A new directive from the European Commission has confirmed that the private pensions of hard-working Scots will become “much more expensive” unless Scotland remains part of the UK, according to experts. (http://ift.tt/1rIBZeF)

The Guardian

SCOTTISH BANKS WARNED ON INDEPENDENCE

Scotland’s financial services and banking industry would face a long and costly period of disruption if there were a ‘yes’ vote for independence, the sector’s Scottish trade body has warned. (http://ift.tt/1rIBWzA)

LONDON CITY AIRPORT RUNWAY CLOSED AFTER PLANE ENGINE ‘BLEW UP’

An engine blew up on an airliner seconds before it was due to leave London City airport, a passenger has said. Four people needed treatment for minor injuries after Geneva-bound LX437 with 74 passengers and four crew on board suffered an engine problem, airport authorities added. (http://ift.tt/1hAVtK9)

EC APPROVES TAX BREAKS FOR VIDEO GAMES INDUSTRY

The video game industry has won a seven-year battle to claim government tax breaks. The European Commission has agreed to extend the credits, which are already available to film and theatre productions, allowing games makers to claim back 25 percent of their qualifying production costs. (http://ift.tt/1rIBZeI)

The Times

BANK RAISES ALARM OVER NEW HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE

The number of borrowers being offered dangerously large mortgages is at an all-time high, the Bank of England has warned. (http://ift.tt/1hAVsG5)

AMERICANS CONSIDER SELLING THAMES SITE

One of London’s best development sites, a stretch of the Thames between Tate Modern and Blackfriars Bridge, could be put up for sale by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group.(http://ift.tt/1rIBZeK)

MORRISONS BOSS GIVES UP BONUS AS PROFITS CRASH

Morrisons’s chief executive has waived his bonus for a second year running and become the latest blue-chip boss to renounce a pay reward after the supermarket chain suffered torrid trading. (http://ift.tt/1hAVu0p)

The Independent

ED MILIBAND PLEDGES TO SUPPORT SMALL BUSINESSES WITH RAFT OF NEW MEASURES

Ed Miliband is to answer critics who claim that Labour is “anti-business” by promising that his party would give new rights to small companies and the self-employed if it wins power. (http://ift.tt/1rIBZv4)

INSURERS WARN OVER GOVERNMENT CAP ON PENSION PLAN CHARGES

The planned cap on charges on workplace pensions will drive small schemes out of business and give workers less financial freedom, insurers warned on Thursday. (http://ift.tt/1hAVu0r)

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled today include:
Personal income for February at 8:30–consensus up 0.3%
Personal spending for February at 8:30–consensus up 0.3%
Core PCE prices for February at 8:30–consensus up 0.1%
U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March  at 9:55–consensus 80.5

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Agnico-Eagle (AEM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie
Bofi Holding (BOFI) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
Cognizant (CTSH) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
El Paso Pipeline (EPB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Fidus Investment (FDUS) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James
Finisar (FNSR) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Home Loan Servicing (HLSS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
InvenSense (INVN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Roth Capital
Kinross Gold (KGC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
NICE Systems (NICE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Newpark Resources (NR) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at First Analysis
Niska Gas (NKA) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
PennyMac (PFSI) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
SolarCity (SCTY) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
TC PipeLines (TCP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
Tallgrass Energy (TEP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Veeco (VECO) upgraded to Buy from Outperform at CLSA

Downgrades

Ambac Financial (AMBC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at MKM Partners
Blackhawk (HAWK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Ciena (CIEN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Citigroup (C) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale
Genesis Energy (GEL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
JDSU (JDSU) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Nestle (NSRGY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
PG&E (PCG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Pinnacle West (PNW) downgraded at BofA/Merrill
Pinnacle West (PNW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Rose Rock Midstream (RRMS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Ternium (TX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Initiations

Atlas Energy (ATLS) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Atlas Resource Partners (ARP) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank
Bill Barrett (BBG) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) initiated with a Buy at Mizuho
Colfax (CFX) initiated with a Neutral at Longbow
Columbia Property Trust (CXP) initiated with a Market Perform at JMP Securities
EP Energy (EPE) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho
Integrated Silicon (ISSI) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley
McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI) initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital
Oracle (ORCL) initiated with a Buy at Cantor
Synergy Resources (SYRG) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital
Valeant (VRX) initiated with a Buy at Cantor

COMPANY NEWS

Exact Sciences (EXAS) announced that an FDA advisory panel recommended approval of its Cologuard colorectal cancer screening test
PG&E (PCG) said it expects criminal charges in San Bruno case
Ford (F) announced plans to invest $500M in Ohio engine plant, create 300 jobs to build new F-150
Parametric Sound (PAMT) provided an update following completion of its combination with Turtle Beach and said it expects adjusted EBITDA for FY14 to total $20M-$25M
GCI (GNCMA) said negotiations with Viacom (VIA) stalled
GM’s (GM) Opel unit said sales of Opel brand in China to cease in January 2015
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) selected by ANA (ALNPY) to provide Trent engines worth $1.1B to power 25 Boeing (BA) 787 Dreamliner aircraft

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Continental Building (CBPX), Oxford Industries (OXM), Red Hat (RHT)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
AdCare (ADK), RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX), Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT), Cara Therapeutics (CARA), Metabolix (MBLX)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Progress Software (PRGS), Restoration Hardware (RH)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Amazon (AMZN) denies report of streaming-media service, Variety says
Wal-Mart (WMT) seeks $5B from Visa (V) over swipe fees, WSJ says
Apple (AAPL) to release new iPhone as early as September, Nikkei says
Total (TOT) in talks with Lukoil (LUKOY) for shale partnership, FT reports
Rumors suggest Jazz (JAZZ) looking to buy ARIAD (ARIA), Daily Mail reports
Toyota (TM) recalling Avalon cars for airbag deployments, Detroit News reports
Microsoft (MSFT) sets internal goal of 25M Windows tablets in 2014, DigiTimes says
Baidu (BIDU) prevails in lawsuit over search results, Reuters reports
Target (TGT) lawsuit reveals liable security firm Trustwave, WSJ reports

SYNDICATE

58.com (WUBA) 6M share Secondary priced at $38.00
CBS Outdoor Americas (CBSO) 20M share IPO priced at $28.00
Caesar’s (CZR) files to sell 7M common shares
CommScope (COMM) 17.5M share Secondary priced at $22.00
Endocyte (ECYT) 4.5M share Secondary priced at $21.00
Energous (watt) 4M share IPO priced at $6.00
Everyday Health (EVDY) 7.15M share IPO priced at $14.00
Exterran Partners (EXLP) files to sell 5.4M common units representing limited partners
Mercer (MERC) 7M share Secondary priced at $7.15
MoneyGram (MGI) 8M share Secondary priced at $16.50
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) 15M share Secondary priced at $33.75
Voxeljet (VJET) files to sell 4.25M American Depositary Shares

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jCsgW6 Tyler Durden

By this point, one has to be impressed at the resilience with which algos repeat the same pattern over and over again, hoping for a different outcome. It is now the 6th day in a row that the JPY-carry trade (be it USDJPY, EURJPY or AUDJPY) driven levitation has pushed equity futures smartly up in overnight trading. And by all accounts – in the absence of ugly macro news which in today’s sparse data line up (just Personal Income and Spending and UMich consumer condfidence) – the same post early highs fade we have seen every day in the past week will repeat again.

The overnight euphoria was driven primarily by Europe where Bloomberg reported 2 Year Spanish yields have traded below those of the UK for the first time since 2009. And since it is obviously not the strong fundamentals, what is continuing to happen, as has been the case since October 2013, is everyone is pricing in the ECB’s QE, which even Weidmann is openly talkin about  now, which simply means it will most likely never actually happen, certainly not until it is too late.

In the meantime, all the banks are getting on the bandwagon, most notably the bank that started it all, BNP, saying the risk-reward around April 3 meeting is still skewed in favor of “ECB QE” trades as investors begin to acknowledge likelihood of asset purchases later this year. This, even as BNMP admits that in its base-case view, the ECB won’t implement QE until 2H, well later than its earlier forecasts. Still, “markets will price in move well before its actual execution” and “lack of announcement next week probably wouldn’t significantly hurt QE trades, even as expectations for such a move have risen.”  Bottom line, Europe’s euphoria now hinges on the ECB doing what even the Fed is tapering. One wonders how much longer the market will give Draghi credit for before it actually demands to see some action.

Turning to today’s calendar, in Europe the focus will be on the latest German inflation print, especially with the April ECB meeting looming next week. The Euroarea CPI report follows on Monday. In the US the February personal income and spending numbers are released together with the latest PCE deflator (consensus is around 1.1%). The Kansas City Fed’s George will be speaking on the US economy. On Sunday, Turkey will be holding local elections which are being billed as a virtual referendum on PM Erdogan’s administration.

Bulletin news summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

• Global stock futures trade higher on the back of increasing expectations of imminent ECB easing ahead of the bank’s meeting next Thursday
• Deteriorating Spanish and German CPIs increase the onus on the ECB to take action to stem deflation
• Fed Watcher Hilsenrath said Fed officials suggest they have not moved forward on technical decisions needed to be made before raising rates

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 – Personal income (est. 0.3%); PCE deflator (0.1%) at 8:30am;
• 9:55 – UMich confidence (est. 80.5)
• 12:00 – Industrial Production Benchmark Revisions
• 12:45 – FOMC member George speaks
• 11:00 – POMO – Fed to purchase $1b-$1.25b in 2036-2044 sector

Asian Headlines

Chinese Premier Li said China has policy tools for economy fluctuations and that China is to selectively unveil measures. (Xinhua) Expectations are for China to resort to growth-supportive measures such as infrastructure as opposed to large-scale fiscal stimulus and monetary accommodation. Despite the comments from Li, a state economist threw cold water on these comments by stating China’s government is broadly satisfied with economic conditions in Q1 and does not plan to announce new stimulus measures. (MNI) The Shanghai Composite closed with losses of 0.3% after paring early gains.

10yr JGBs closed lower (-5 ticks at 144.71) amid quiet trade, while the Nikkei 225 traded mostly range-bound ahead of the impending sales tax hike, but did see prices supported in late trade to close the session with mild gains of 0.5%. (RANsquawk)

EU & UK Headlines

The regional German CPIs came in mostly softer than expected, with the first Saxony reading kicking off the releases and putting downward pressure upon EUR from the open. 1300GMT does see the release of the German CPI figure, however as always the regional CPIs have presented an impression of what is to come. (BBG/RANsquawk) The deterioration of the inflation outlook has pushed markets to price in easing further, with the Euribor curve flatter, the EUR at the lowest levels in four weeks and Jun-14 Bund futures printing contract highs.

Barclays preliminary Sterling month-end extensions: (-0.02y) (12m avg. +0.06y)

Barclays preliminary pan-Euro agg month-end extensions: (+0.07y) (12m avg. +0.08y)

US Headlines

Fed’s Evans (non-voter, dove) said he sees rates rising in H2 2015, would prefer later and that rates are to rise at least six months after QE. (BBG)

Fed Watcher Hilsenrath has said Fed officials suggest they have not moved forward on technical decisions needed to be made before raising rates, with officials expecting to manage interest rates using rate Fed pays to banks on excess reserves parked at central bank. HIlsenrath also said a new program using reverse repos being tested by NY Fed is one potential alternative and Fed officials are moving slowly in talks on how to manage mechanics of interest rate increases.

Barclays preliminary US Tsys month-end extensions:(+0.07y) (12m avg. +0.08y)

Equities

Wal-Mart has sued Visa for more than USD 5bln, after claiming the card network charges unreasonably high fees when the retailer’s customers paid with cards. (WSJ) Visa are the Dow Jones’ largest component, with an index weighting of 8.5%.

FX

Goldman Sachs have revised their USD/CAD forecast up substantially from parity to CAD 1.1400 by the end of 2014, citing very low Canadian inflation. Separately on USD/JPY, Citigroup said USD/JPY is to weaken to 108-110 in June-July.

Commodities

As we head into the last North American open of the week WTI crude futures are seen trading higher, as the improving economic outlook gives risk-on sentiment strength, helping prices across the energy complex rise with the exception of NatGas futures, which trade to the downside as reports suggest cold weather will not be as severe as recent periods.

 

* * *

We conclude with the overnight recap by DB’s Jim Reid

Another uninspiring US session failed to take the limelight away from the relentless run in EM over the last week or so. Indeed, looking at the respective performance of MSCI EM index and the S&P 500 from the Tuesday prior to the FOMC till now, the former has outperformed the latter by around 3.7 percentage points (+2.5% vs -1.2% respectively) which is surprising many given last week’s relatively hawkish FOMC. We should note however, that within EM itself there has been a fairly large dispersion in performance reflecting in part idiosyncratic headlines. For example, Brazil’s Ibovespa and China’s HSCEI are up 7.5% and 6.9% respectively since just prior to the FOMC, with the former helped by better data/policies and the latter by expectations of fiscal or monetary stimulus. This compares to EM laggards such as Russia’s MICEX which is -0.3% over the same time period as it grapples with geopolitical risks in the form of Western sanctions.

Putting aside the recent dispersion, yesterday proved to be a strong day for virtually the entire EM complex and the strength carried right through to the close despite the wobbles in the S&P 500. In currencies, the MXN (+0.18%) and BRL (+1.91%) closed at the highs against the US dollar. EM rates in Turkey (-30bp) and Russia (-7bp) traced tighter despite some mixed geopolitical headlines. Equity bourses such as Brazil’s (+3.5%) notched up its eighth gain in the last nine days as investors took comfort in the better than expected central government fiscal balance in February (-3.1BN vs -4.0BN expected) while some were unsure of what to make of the latest polls which suggested that President Dilma Rousseff’s popularity had slipped to 51% from 56% but was still favoured to win October’s election (Reuters). We also learnt yesterday that the Brazilian unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in February from 4.8% previously, causing local rates to compress as markets priced in a slower path of rate hikes.

The firm EM backdrop has set a positive tone for Asian markets on Thursday. Gains are being recorded across almost all equity indices in particular the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (+1.6%) which is leading the region’s gains. State affiliated Xinhua news agency quoted Chinese Premier Li as urging a number of provincial leaders to deepen economic reforms and restructuring so as to maintain the country’s growth at a reasonable pace – this is perhaps boosting sentiment today. Adding to the anecdotal evidence of funding stresses is parts of the Chinese economy, the WSJ is reporting that some Chinese importers of agricultural commodities are reneging on deals as a result of credit tightening. Speaking in Hong Kong, the Fed’s Charles Evans said that he expects the Fed Funds rate to be 1.25% at end 2016, clearly at the low end of the Fed’s “dots”.

On the topic of China, DB’s economists have revised down their 2014 GDP growth forecast to 7.8% from 8.6% previously and the 2015 growth forecast to 8.0% from 8.2%. DB’s forecast reflects a slower-than-expected start to the year and an expectation that as export growth returns as a source of support to growth, the government will scale back investment further in order to rebalance growth away from investment and towards consumption. DB expects there will be some modest monetary and fiscal stimulus – much of which has perhaps already been announced. Hence, the view from our economists is that Q1 will mark the low-point of growth this cycle at perhaps 7.4%. DB don’t expect RRR cuts or LDR increases, but guidance from the PBOC is likely to be more accommodative. There may be scope for more stimulus with CPI inflation to slow to 2.2% this year from 2.6% last year. Similarly, our economists think fiscal policy will be modestly expansionary, supporting investment growth by increasing infrastructure and social services spending.

In Japan, the Nikkei (+0.04%) and USDJPY (-0.03%) are both unchanged amid a general sense of cautiousness ahead of next week’s sales tax hike. As Japanese investors ponder the impact of next week’s contractionary fiscal policy and the BoJ’s options, the FT reports that there has been a rush from Japanese retail buyers to snap up small gold bars in Japan. Some jewelry dealers are reporting that sales are up 500pc this month as customers rush in last minute purchases before sales taxes come into effect. The FT is also positing an alternative theory that retail investors are buying gold as both an inflation hedge and as a safe haven in case deflation returns. On a related note, the latest Japanese inflation numbers were released today showing inflation steady at 1.5% YoY in February, in line with expectations and slightly ahead of last month’s 1.4%. CPI ex-fresh food remained at 1.3% for the third straight month and real household spending from the Feb Household survey fell 1.5% MoM.

Coming back to yesterday, in Europe the EUR had another soft session (down 0.3%) as markets weigh up the recent ECB commentary and with eyes on today’s German CPI, Monday’s euroarea CPI and next week’s ECB meeting. The S&P500 (-0.19%) once again drifted after the morning session in what has become a recurring theme over the last few days. Stocks were led lower by the banking sector (-1.04%) but it was interesting to see that the banking sector actually traded higher shortly after the opening bell despite the controversy over the Fed’s stress tests from the day before. Amongst the worst performers is Citigroup (-5.4%) which was unsurprising as one of the five banks whose capital plans were rejected by the Fed. The FT reported late yesterday that a number of bank executives were critical of the Fed stress tests for being “opaque” and “too much of a black box”. According to the article, the Fed asserts it is transparent about its process while maintaining some mystique to stop banks “studying for the test”.

On the fixed income side, gilts and bunds ground tighter in yield as US treasury yields shifted lower by another basis point to 2.681% – in contrast to Dec15 Eurodollar futures which moved up by 1.5bp to 1.17%. Curve flattening remains a central theme in the UST market. The intermediate part of the UST curve was helped by another well received UST auction, where US$29bn of 7yr notes were auctioned with the yield stopping through the market. Direct bidders took a relatively high one-third of the auction and dealers were left with 26%. US data flow was a bit of a wash, with initial jobless claims better (311k vs 320k prev) but pending home sales were down -0.8% in February, which is about 1ppt less than expected. The third estimate of US Q4 GDP came in at 2.6% (vs 2.7% expected) and the Core PCE remained at 1.3%.

Turning to today’s calendar, in Europe the focus will be on the latest German inflation print, especially with the April ECB meeting looming next week. The Euroarea CPI report follows on Monday. In the US the February personal income and spending numbers are released together with the latest PCE deflator (consensus is around 1.1%). The Kansas City Fed’s George will be speaking on the US economy. On Sunday, Turkey will be holding local elections which are being billed as a virtual referendum on PM Erdogan’s administration.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1iGXnfy Tyler Durden

By EconMatters

 

As Cushing supplies decline due to increased logistic options out of the storage hub in the Midwest PADD 2 in Cushing, Oklahoma inventories are rising to elevated levels in the Gulf Coast which eventually will provide the bottleneck and back up oil flows all along the supply and logistics chain.

 

 

 

 

 

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via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fq8iX6 EconMatters