Furious Chinese Demand Money Back As Housing Bubble Pops

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned or, it seems, like a Chinese real estate speculator who is losing money. After four years of talking (and not doing much) about cooling the hot-money speculation that is the Chinese real-estate bubble (mirroring the US equity market bubble since stock-ownership is low in China), the WSJ reports that the people are restless as the PBOC actually takes actions – and prices are falling. With new project prices down over 20%, 'homeowners' exclaim "return our hard-earned money" and "this is very unfair" – who could have seen this coming?

Via WSJ,

After a four-year campaign by the government to cool spiraling property prices, rises in home prices are starting to slow and in some smaller cities they are weakening.

 

Growth in average housing prices in 70 Chinese cities moderated in February for the second-straight month though they were still nearly 9% higher compared with a year ago.

 

But weaker economic growth, slower home sales and rising volumes of unsold houses have convinced developers in a number of cities to cut prices to raise cash quickly.

And new home prices are down…in smaller cities…

Property developers say privately there isn't enough transparency in land sales and land use, which sometimes give rise to overbuilding in many smaller cities.

 

Phoenix Lake Garden, prices were cut by as much as 16%

 

According to property agency Soufun Holdings, Wharf cut prices of 20 apartments in the project to 8,200 yuan ($1,317) per square meter, down from the average 11,000 yuan per square meter it recorded in recent months.

 

Mr. Wu said he bought a 120-square-meter apartment in December, for 730,000 yuan. Prices are now 610,000 yuan for a similar apartment in the same tower

The drop in newer home prices hasn't gone down well.

Groups of angry homeowners put up banners and demanded their money back after Hong Kong-listed property developer Wharf Ltd. cut prices

 

Around 20 homeowners picketed outside a property showroom in Changzhou Saturday, demanding to meet executives of the developer. They said they wanted their money back after prices at the project dropped

 

Meanwhile, there was also a small disturbance at a second project called Ambassador House in the same city after the same developer cut prices there.

 

Furniture at the showroom of Wharf's Ambassador House was knocked over and the wooden stands for advertisements for the homes were flung on top of a model of the project.

 

Others said that as many as 100 people who had bought homes at the project had vented their frustrations outside the showroom over the past week.

The complaints…

"Wharf, give us justice. Return us our hard earned money," read one of the banners, held up on bamboo poles outside the Phoenix Lake Garden showroom of a project for mid- to high-end apartments and villas.

 

"We aren't speculators. We just want an explanation from the developer," said one 35-year-old home buyer, who said he had bought an apartment and gave his surname as Wu. "This is very unfair."

Unfair indeed. How long before we hear they are "entitled" to a fair return on their housing (non) speculation investment? Alas for China's "non-speculators", as we reported last week in "The Music Just Ended: "Wealthy" Chinese Are Liquidating Offshore Luxury Homes In Scramble For Cash" the real anger is only just beginning.


    



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Two Dutch F-16s Scrambled To Intercept Unidentified Boeing 777

With the world particularly sensitive to any news involving stray and/or missing Boeing 777 airplanes, especially if said massive stray airplane is heading toward the Nuclear security summit taking place at the Hague, it is no surprise that the news which appeared about an hour ago that two Dutch F-16s were scrambled to intercept a unresponsive Boeing 777 in Dutch airspace, received such a prompt response.

Dutch RTL News reports:

From the Brabant Volkel airbase, two F-16s took off to intercept a freighter. It would be a cargo plane, a Boeing 777F LAN Cargo, which was en route to the airport. The unit flew from Miami in Dutch airspace and they could not connect to the device.

 

A spokesman for the Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security unit had previously requested permission for the flight. That is because of the nuclear security summit in The Hague is mandatory.

 

The jets have the cargo plane accompanied this had left. Dutch airspace The unit is now independently to the airport in Frankfurt, Germany.

And on Twitter:

There is no evidence of foul play, but if one wants to quickly reduce their life expectancy, the best way to achieve that is to fly a 777 with transponders switched off near a city where the world’s leaders are currently located.


    



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It’s 830ET, Do You Know Where Your Precious Metals Smackdown, USDJPY Ramp Is?

In the glorious game of pin the ‘explanation’ tail on the ‘manipulated market’ tail, this morning, we suspect traders wil be hard-pressed to find a fun-durr-mental trigger for the 830ET trigger pull to dump gold and silver and buy USD against JPY in size… but then, since when did explanations matter?

 


    



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Britons Rate Russia More Favorably Than European Union, Israel

One would think that for all its demonization in the Western press, not to mention the countless comparisons to Hitler and/or the Antichrist, that Putin’s Russia would be viewed relatively negatively especially in that bastion of western thought: Britain. Yes, perhaps: it certainly doesn’t have a sterling image. However what is remarkableis that depite recent events in the Crimea, Britons still see Russia in a more positive light than the European Union, despite recent tensions with Moscow over Ukraine, according to a poll published on Saturday.

Perhaps this is not surprising, because as AFP reports, voters in Britain are also equally divided about whether to remain in the 28-member bloc, a subject on which Prime Minister David Cameron has promised a referendum in 2017 and which is the reason for the blistering ascent in popularity of such political parties as the UKIP.

The league table of 27 “liked” countries and institutions put the European Parliament — for which elections are being held in May — sixth from bottom, and the EU fourth from bottom.

Only Saudi Arabia, Iran and North Korea ranked below the European parliament when those polled were asked how positive or negative they felt towards them. Israel was fifth from bottom and Russia was seventh from bottom. Canada was top.

To be sure, the poll taken before relations between Russia and the West were plunged into the deep freeze because of the crisis in the Ukraine and Russia’s absorption of the Crimean peninsula.

Other poll findings:

  • 41 percent thought Britain should remain in the EU, while exactly the same percentage thought it should leave, with the rest undecided.
  • Only 20 percent of voters were confident that Cameron could renegotiate a better deal for Britain with the EU. He has pledged to do so and then hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership in late 2017, provided that he is re-elected in May 2015.

“Britain is split down the middle,” Ashcroft wrote on his website.

Separately, a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday newspaper showed that 48 percent would vote to leave the EU in a referendum, 39 would vote to stay in, and 13 percent were undecided. It polled 1,000 adults online on Thursday and Friday.

Bottom line: when it comes to authoritarian, illegitimate dictatorial regimes, Russia is certainly giving the EU a run for its money.


    



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Russian Bank Impacted By US Sanctions Hit By Mini Bank Run Over The Weekend

Last week, after western sanctions against Russia expanded to include not only the first financial institution, Bank Rosiya, but also SMP bank whose main shareholders were on the sanctions list, unexpectedly both Visa and MasterCard halted providing transaction services to the two banks, without providing an explanation. Over the weekend, one of the banks got its full credit card functionality back after Visa Inc and MasterCard both resumed services for payment transactions for clients at Russia’s SMP bank.

As a reminder, SMP, which has about 100 branches covering more than 20 Russian cities, has co-owners Boris Rotenberg and older brother Arkady,  who received large contracts in the Sochi Winter Olympics, and who were both added to the expanded US sanctions list, and as we reported before, SMP had said on Friday that Visa and MasterCard had stopped providing services for payment transactions for clients at Russia’s SMP bank. The bank said the decision to stop providing services by Visa and MasterCard was unlawful because the sanctions were imposed on shareholders, not the bank, which said it has no assets in the United States.

“We are glad that the two biggest international payment systems have heard our arguments and reversed their decision to block (SMP bank transactions),” SMP bank CEO Dmitry Kalantyrsky, said in a statement.

What was the purpose of this escalation? Simple: as Reuters reports, SMP Bank said on Monday around 9 billion roubles ($248 million) had been withdrawn by depositors since U.S. sanctions were announced last week.

Washington imposed sanctions on Thursday against 20 Russians close to President Vladimir Putin over Moscow’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis, including Boris Rotenberg and his older brother Arkady, the co-owners of SMP Bank.

SMP CEO Dmitry Kalantyrsky told a news conference that an estimated 4 billion roubles had been withdrawn by individuals and 5 billion by organisations.

In other words, the staggered escalations against Russian banks, to which credit card processors have joined without any specific reason, were meant solely to incite a bank panic and to promote bank run conditions. With SMP this succeeded partially, with quarter of a billion withdrawn, however hardly enough to cripple the bank. At least for now.

As Bloomberg reports, as the new Cold War escalates between the West and Russia, the next most likely event is a Russian recession:

Banks including state-run VTB Capital say the world’s ninth-biggest economy will shrink for at least two quarters as penalties for annexing Crimea rattle markets, curb investment and raise the cost of borrowing. Sanctions that have so far focused on individuals via visa bans and asset freezes may be expanded to target specific areas of the economy.

 

President Vladimir Putin sent his popularity surging to a five-year high by making Crimea a part of Russia again after 60 years and says he won’t be swayed by foreign retaliation. Even so, the costs of the decision are starting to unfold, with Russian stocks this year’s worst performers and the economy set to suffer more than the West, said Mircea Geoana, Romania’s government representative for diplomacy and economic projects.

 

“We’re witnessing the start of a new geopolitical and economic Cold War and I think it will take at least two to three years to establish some sort of equilibrium,” he said. “The ones who’ll pay the bill for this aggression, no matter how popular and patriotic it looks, will be the Russian people because there’s a huge difference between the economic force of the EU and the U.S. and that of Russia.”

 

* * *

 

Russia will probably dip into a recession in the second and third quarters of this year as “domestic demand is set to halt on the uncertainty shock and tighter financial conditions,” according to Moscow-based VTB.

 

Russia’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points after the armed takeover of Crimea triggered a rout in the ruble. Putin completed his annexation of the Black Sea peninsula March 21.

 

Russia may shun foreign debt markets in 2014 because of higher borrowing costs, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. He expressed frustration at disruptions to MasterCard Inc. and Visa services for cards issued by banks on or linked to persons on the U.S. sanctions list.

 

“Some people say these sanctions won’t affect Russia’s financial system but they already are,” he said March 21.

Of course, as we reported last week, any dramatic deterioration in the Russian economy will simply push it closer to China, which for all intents and purposes is the provider of funding for Western “discretionary spending” anyway, so why not just cut the middleman, and the petrodollar, entirely?


    



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Frontrunning: March 24

  • U.S. Small-Cap Rally Sends Valuation 26% Above 1990s  (BBG)
  • Russian troops seize Ukraine marine base in Crimea (Reuters)
  • Apple in Talks With Comcast About Streaming-TV Service (WSJ)
  • Top J.P. Morgan Executive in China to Leave Bank (WSJ)
  • Treasury’s Lew to undergo treatment for enlarged prostate (Reuters)
  • Billionaire Sought by U.S. Holds Key to Putin Gas Cash  (BBG)
  • Israel closes embassies around the world as diplomats strike (Reuters)
  • Herbalife to Nominate Three More Icahn Candidates to Board (BBG)
  • Australian ship homes in on possible debris from Malaysia plane (Reuters)
  • California DMV Investigating Potential Credit Card Breach (WSJ)
  • U.S. regulators failed to spot deadly GM defects that others saw (Reuters)
  • Egyptian court sentences 529 Brotherhood members to death (Reuters)
  • World Leaders Discuss Ukraine as Worry Grows Over Russia (BBG)
  • Drug Firms Focus on Advanced Melanoma (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Apple Inc is in talks with Comcast Corp about a streaming-television service that would use an Apple set-top box and try to bypass congestion on the web, people familiar with the matter said. (http://ift.tt/1rkWiyJ)

* One of JP Morgan Chase & Co’s top China executives is expected to resign amid a continuing probe of the U.S. bank’s Asian hiring practices, according to people familiar with the situation. (http://ift.tt/1f8YaC5)

* U.S. hedge fund RD Legal Capital LLC plans to bet as much as $100 million that it can collect on a court judgment against Iran for a deadly terror attack in Beirut three decades ago, according to marketing documents and people familiar with the matter. (http://ift.tt/1f8Yd0y)

* IMS Health Holdings Inc is in the final stages of preparing to launch an initial public stock offering that could value the prescription-data provider at $7 billion, people familiar with the matter said. IMS, owned by private-equity firms TPG, Leonard Green & Partners LP and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, will soon start a road show to pitch investors on its shares, which are expected to begin trading within the next two weeks. (http://ift.tt/1ghcw7K)

* Major pharmaceutical companies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb Co, Roche Holding AG and Merck & Co are racing to launch breakthrough drugs in the next 18 months to treat advanced melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer. All three companies are working on a potential blockbuster “immunotherapy” drug that would use the body’s immune system to fight the cancer. (http://ift.tt/1ghcw7M)

* California’s Department of Motor Vehicles is investigating a potential breach of its credit card-processing systems, in what might be the latest in a string of attacks that have highlighted vulnerabilities in how payment data are handled. (http://ift.tt/1ghcyMP)

* Cisco Systems Inc plans to begin offering “cloud” computing service to corporate customers, pledging to spend $1 billion over the next two years to enter a market now led by Amazon.com Inc. (http://ift.tt/1ghcwo6)

 

FT

The chief of General Electric’s European business said the industrial conglomerate wanted Britain to stay in the European Union and Scotland to remain part of Britain.

Geely-owned Volvo Car Group said it would double its marketing budget in the United States, looking to revive its faltering business there and keep a turnround at the Gothenburg-based carmaker on track.

As Gatwick prepares its case for expansion, it will argue this week that Britain will have less need for a big hub airport such as Heathrow because of the way the aviation industry is evolving.

A group of banks including Goldman Sachs and Nomura have agreed to lend nearly 1 billion euros ($1.38 billion) to private equity-backed Ceva Sante Animale, a veterinary drug producer.

FTSE 100 Tullow Oil will become the first oil company to disclose its payments to foreign governments with a level of detail demanded by anti-corruption campaigners.

 

NYT

* Data storage company Actifio is to announce it has raised $100 million in new financing, valuing the company at $1 billion. That deal places Actifio in an elite club of start-ups with 10-figure valuations. (http://ift.tt/1gtfuqF)

* Birchbox, an online retailer of cosmetic and beauty products, has decided to open a physical retail store by late May. Founded by two Harvard classmates, the company joins a list of e-tailers who have decided to have a physical retail store apart from an online presence. (http://ift.tt/1oTEN6u)

* Tribeca Enterprises, a Manhattan-based independent film concern co-founded by actor Robert De Niro, has agreed to sell 50 percent stake to Madison Square Garden Co. The deal, announced on March 22, values Tribeca at $45 million. (http://ift.tt/1gtfuqN)

* General Motors Co has turned to social media to earn its reputation back and manage its customers well in the wake of a recent recall storm involving 1.6 million cars. The once-bankrupt automaker’s dual approach – going about its normal business while trying to help specific customers – reflects the tightrope the company must walk. (http://ift.tt/1oTENmI)

* With an eye to achieve top TV ratings, attracting marquee advertisers and lots of social media buzz, kids’ TV channels are increasingly leaning towards award shows. (http://ift.tt/1oTELeB)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* The Parti Quebecois is trying to bolster a faltering campaign with a new wedge issue on Quebec identity, accusing Ontarians and other Canadians from outside Quebec of trying to steal the provincial election. (http://ift.tt/1oTx5Jo)

* Leaders of Canadian companies operating in Russia are fearful that Western sanctions and Ottawa’s overtly pro-Ukrainian position over Crimea will lead to a worsening business environment for them in Russia. (http://ift.tt/1oTx88a)

Reports in the business section:

* BlackBerry Ltd Chief Executive John Chen has so far received relatively kind treatment from his company’s long-suffering investors. There’s growing evidence that investors have been willing to cut the company a little more slack these days, as it continues trying to pull off a difficult transition from a smartphone giant to a software and services provider. (http://ift.tt/1jm4FbY)

NATIONAL POST

* An Ontario judge’s decision to hand Iran’s $7 million worth of state assets in Canada to victims of terrorism was branded “politically motivated” and of “no legal value” by the Islamic republic on the weekend. (http://ift.tt/1jm4FJ7)

* Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia on Ukraine and Crimea more sharply than any other leader of a major western country. (http://ift.tt/1jm4Fc4)

FINANCIAL POST

* Teen movie franchises are proving to be a very lucrative investment for Lions Gate Entertainment Corp, which appears to have yet another multi-part epic hit on its hands. The studio, which was founded in Vancouver by mining magnate Frank Giustra, won the North American box office over the weekend with “Divergent,” a film about a dystopian future where people are divided into factions based on human virtues. (http://ift.tt/1jm4Fc6)

 

China

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– China will be able to achieve its goal for its economy to grow 7.5 percent this year, Jia Kang, head of the Ministry of Finance’s research, told an asset management forum in Beijing over the weekend.

– China’s decision to let listed firms to issue preferred shares for the first time will enable banks to raise funds without dilution of their earnings, making banking shares more attractive to investors, a signed article by the newspaper said.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– The slowdown of the annual growth of China’s economy to below 8 percent over the past two years, down from more than 10 percent in most years since the start of this century, signals that the country needs to step up its efforts to improve its economic structure to sustain its rapid growth, a commentary by the newspaper said.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– The depreciation of the yuan against the dollar since the start of this year is mainly a correction after the Chinese currency staged an unexpected strong appreciation last year. Now another round of yuan rise may have to wait until the fourth quarter of this year, judging from factors including China’s slowing economy, a research report by Huarong Securities said.

– China’s central government should be the main investment force for the country’s next round of urbanisation drive, said Wang Jian, an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner.

SECURITIES TIMES

– The China Securities Regulatory Commission will soon resume reviewing corporate applications for initial public offerings after an IPO lull since February as applicants are required to add their latest financial data for last year among their documents for applications.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– A number of Chinese government departments are now coordinating to draft rules to manage and supervise China’s rapidly growing online banking business, sources said.

CHINA DAILY

– China and Netherlands pledged to seek closer cooperation during the ongoing visit to Europe by Chinese president Xi Jinping.

 

Britain

The Telegraph

SAINSBURY’S WINS SECOND BITE AT TESCO ‘PRICE PROMISE’

J Sainsbury’s has won the right to a judicial review in its legal battle against Tesco’s “misleading” Price Promise campaign after failing to convince regulators that it should be banned. (http://ift.tt/1fTbYQz)

MENTAL HEALTH-CARE GROUP CAMBIAN PLANS 500 MLN STG IPO

Cambian, Britain’s biggest mental health services provider, is joining the flotation flurry after unveiling plans to list half of the business on the London Stock Exchange. (http://ift.tt/1eDrRyg)

The Guardian

SUNRISE RADIO TAKEOVER BEING LED BY TORY DONOR FACING 14 MLN STG FRAUD TRIAL

The takeover of London’s biggest commercial Asian radio stations is being led by a former business associate of Conservative grandee Cecil Parkinson who is awaiting trial for fraud at the Old Bailey. (http://ift.tt/1jkNbNi)

The Times

‘SCOTS TO PAY PREMIUM FOR KILT-EDGED BORROWING’

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, has warned that an independent Scotland would have to pay more to borrow when issuing “kilt-edged securities”, because of the country’s reliance on volatile oil revenues and an oversized banking sector. (http://ift.tt/1fTc0If)

ASDA MANAGERS FACE AXE AS GROCERS’ PRICE WAR ESCALATES

Asda is preparing to announce what are said to be “scores” of redundancies among senior managers in its central and head office functions. The grocer is expected to brief senior managers on Monday on who will be let go. (http://ift.tt/1eDrQdx)

PHOENIX IS PRESSING IGNITION ON SALE PLAN

Phoenix Group has entered exclusive talks with Standard Life over a potential 400 million pound ($659.8 million) sale of its Ignis Asset Management division. (http://ift.tt/1fTc0Yv)

RSA PREPARES FOR EASTER FUNDRAISING

RSA will this week pull the trigger on its emergency cash call to shareholders as Britain’s biggest commercial insurer sets out the terms of its bumper 775 million pound rights issue. (http://ift.tt/1eDrQdB)

INTEROUTE TO RAISE 200 MLN EUROS AS IT TARGETS CLOUD CONTROL

London-based telecommunications company Interoute intends to raise up to 200 million euros ($275.7 million) to fund expansion as it plots a listing within the next two years. (http://ift.tt/1fTc0Yx)

The Independent

THAMES WATER SEEKS INTERNATIONAL BACKERS FOR LONDON’S SUPER-SEWER

Thames Water has started the hunt for international investors to fund the construction of its controversial 4 billion pound super-sewer across London. (http://ift.tt/1eDrROC)

RECORD NUMBER OF WOMEN TAKE SEATS IN THE BOARDROOM

The equality campaigner Lord Davies will this week step up the pressure on companies to put more women into executive committee roles, as he reveals that females hold a record number of seats in the boardrooms of Britain’s biggest companies – but men still dominate the top jobs. (http://ift.tt/1fTc0Yz)

BIG LEAP IN BRITISH FOOD EXPORTS TO CHINA

A taste for Scottish salmon and British pork by China’s emerging middle classes drove UK food and drink exports 5 percent higher last year to 12.8 billion pounds, the Food & Drink Federation said. (http://ift.tt/1fTbYQB)

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 Am Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled today include:
Chicago Fed national activity index for February at 8:30–consensus 0.1
Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI for March at 9:45–consensus 56.5

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Axiall (AXLL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Banco Bradesco (BBD) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
First Bancorp (fbnc) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
STAAR Surgical (STAA) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
Stratasys (SSYS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Symantec (SYMC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
U.S. Bancorp (USB) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Atlantic Equities
United Continental (UAL) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James
VMware (VMW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee
Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Atlantic Equities
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

Downgrades

American Electric (AEP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
BBCN Bank (BBCN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Bank of America (BAC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities
Exelis (XLS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Gartner (IT) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
KPN (KKPNY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Loews (L) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Manitowoc (MTW) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies
NetApp (NTAP) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Susser Holdings (SUSS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Zions Bancorp (ZION) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital

Initiations

Abiomed (ABMD) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink
CECO Environmental (CECE) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Clovis (CLVS) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Descartes Systems (DSGX) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James
NCI Building Systems (NCS) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
National General (NGHC) initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital

COMPANY NEWS

Herbalife (HLF) to nominate three additional Icahn designees to board
Nokia (NOK) now expects deal with Microsoft (MSFT) to close in April
Credit Suisse (CS) in $885M settlement with FHFA
Twitter (TWTR) said hopes to have access in Turkey returned ‘soon’
Nu Skin China (NUS) penalized $524K for direct sales of certain products
Ctrip.com (CTRP) said 93 users’ credit card information may have been hacked
AT&T (T) responded to Netflix’s (NFLX) Hastings, said ‘there is no free lunch’ 
Madison Square Garden (MSG) purchased 50% interest in Tribeca Enterprises

EARNINGS

Sinopec (SNP) reports FY13 net profit RMB66.1B vs. RMB63.9B in FY12
Republic First Bancorp (FRBK) reports Q4 EPS (13c), two estimates 2c
Hackett Group (HCKT) reaffirms Q1 EPS, revenue guidance
Dataram (DRAM) reports Q3 EPS (40c) vs. (44c) a year ago
Arrhythmia Research (HRT) reports Q4 EPS (3c) vs. (44c) a year ago

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Cisco (CSCO) plans to offer cloud computing services, WSJ reports
Apple (AAPL), Comcast (CMCSA) in talks about streaming-TV service, WSJ says
Nasdaq (NDAQ) re-evaluating FinQloud partnership with Amazon (AMZN), FT reports
JPMorgan (JPM) executive in China expected to resign amid probe, WSJ says
Bristol-Myers (BMY), Roche (RHHBY), Merck (MRK) working on possible blockbusters for melanoma, WSJ says
Artist Series makes $350M cash offer for MSG’s (MSG) Fuse TV, Bloomberg says
U.S. considers bankruptcy link in GM (GM) ignition defect probe, NYT says
Apple (AAPL) to move towards automoated production for iPhone batteries, DigiTimes says
Oceanografia CEO questioned in Citigroup (C) fraud case, Reuters says
A sale of stake in Alibaba after its IPO could net Yahoo (YHOO) billions, Barron’s says
Principal Financial (PFG) should be worth 25% more, Barron’s says
McDermott (MDR) shares could rise over 20% in a year, Barron’s says
CommonWealth REIT (CWH) could eventually trade higher, Barron’s says
A bigger iPhone screen could boost Apple’s (AAPL) earnings 10%-15%, Barron’s says
Visteon (VC) shares could reach $100 in a year, Barron’s says

SYNDICATE

Cardica (CRDC) files to sell 32.15M shares of common stock
Galectin Therapeutics (GALT) files to sell $100M of common stock
Rand Logistics (RLOG) files to sell $8.2M of common stock
SeaWorld (SEAS) files to sell 15M shares of common stock for holders


    

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nTl2id Tyler Durden

Futures Rise As More Weak Chinese Data Prompts More Stimulus Hopes

If there was one thing that the market was demanding after last night’s disappointing March HSBC manufacturing PMI, which has now fallen so low, local market participants are convinced a stimulus is imminent (despite China’s own warnings not to expect this), and sent both the SHCOMP and the CNY surging, it would have been further weak data out of Europe, where the other possible, if not probable, “QE-stimulus” bank is located now that the Fed is in full taper mode. It didn’t get precisely that however there was a step in the right direction when overnight the Euro area Composite Flash PMI eased marginally from 53.3 to 53.2 in March, largely as expected. The country breakdown showed a narrowing of the Germany/France Composite PMI gap owing to a notable (3.7pt) increase in the French PMI while the German PMI eased somewhat (1.4pt). On the basis of past correlations, a Euro area Composite PMI of 53.2 is consistent with GDP growth of around +0.4%qoq, slightly stronger than our Current Activity Indicator (+0.35%qoq).

The breakdown for Eurozone manufacturing is shown in the charts below:

 

So for those wondering why futures are no up and set to fill the gap from Friday’s surprising late day tumble, now you know – more bad news masked with hopes that central banks will come in and fix things and this time it may actually work.

Other weekend headlines were relatively few and far between but there was some focus on French local elections, the ECB, geopolitical tensions in various pockets of the globe and ongoing corporate distress in China. Starting with France the far-right National Front party made significant gains in local elections in what is being spun as a backlash against Francois Hollande’s policies. The National Front party is reportedly ahead in some towns including the northern town of Henin-Beaumont which has historically voted for the left. All in all, the National Front is predicted to win half a dozen towns after next Sunday’s round two run-offs (Reuters). In terms of the ECB, Vice President Vitor Constancio, speaking on Saturday at a Fed-sponsored conference, said that the ECB will not adopt threshold-based rate guidance. Constancio also remarked that markets had mostly missed that the ECB actually strengthened its forward guidance at the March meeting, tying its accommodative stance to the closure of slack in the economy. In Ukraine, NATO’s commander in Europe warned on Sunday that Russian forces just to the east of Ukraine were “very, very sizeable and very, very ready”. This came after pro-Russian forces seized a couple more of the remaining military bases in Crimea held by Ukrainian troops on the weekend. In Asia, there were reports that more Chinese onshorebonds will be suspended from trading after the Chinese corporate reporting season concludes in March-April. Indeed there is talk that some 24 bonds from 19 Chinese domestic issuers are in danger of having their bonds suspended in the near future (IFR).

Headline bulletin from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Treasuries decline, 10Y yield holding just above 100-DMA; 5Y at highest since Jan. 9 before U.S. sells $109b in 2Y fixed/FRN, 5Y and 7Y notes beginning tomorrow.
  • China’s manufacturing weakened for a fifth straight month, with the HSBC/Markit PMI dropping to 48.1 from 48.5, est 48.7
  • Chinese stocks rebounded from initial losses on speculation that weakening growth will prompt policy makers to reconsider their aversion to broad stimulus measures
  • Ukraine’s foreign minister said the risk of war with Russia was growing as world leaders gather in The Hague to discuss  the situation amid growing concern over a Russian buildup on its neighbor’s border as pro-Kremlin troops seized a Ukrainian base in Crimea
  • Growth in euro-area manufacturing and services stayed close to the fastest since 2011 in March as France improved
  • Fang Fang, JPMorgan’s CEO of investment banking for China, is leaving after more than 12 years at the firm
  • Sovereign yields mostly higher. Asian equities rise, Nikkei +1.8%, Shanghai +0.9%. European equity markets decline U.S. stock-index futures gain.  WTI crude and copper steady, gold lower

US Economic Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Feb.,  est. 0.10 (prior -0.39)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. PMI Preliminary, March, est. 56.5 (prior 57.1
  • 9:00am: Fed’s Stein speaks in Washington Supply
  • 11:00am: Fed to purchase $500m-$750m notes in 2024-2031 sector

The complete overnight recap from DB’s Jim Reid

Overnight the preliminary HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI for March was released which disappointed relative to market expectations (48.1 vs 48.7 expected). The PMI is down 0.4 pts MoM and down 3.5 pts YoY which is disappointing to those who expected the PMI to bounce back after potential  Lunar New Year seasonal distortions in January and February’s data. Asian stocks and credit edged lower following the data but overall the market reaction has been limited, potentially because the weak PMI has renewed calls for the Chinese authorities to expand fiscal spending this year. We note though  hat the Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei ruled out large fiscal stimulus in a speech at a development forum in Beijing yesterday, instead stressing Beijing’s commitment to carrying out reforms. The Nikkei (+1.9%) is leading gains in Asia after reopening from its long weekend, and Chinese banking stocks are underpinning the Shanghai Composite (+0.5%). Chinese bank stocks have been buoyed by news that the government may allow banks to issue preference shares to open up an additional source of funding. The underperformers post-PMI are copper futures (-0.3%) and the AUDUSD (- 0.05%) but initial losses have been pared.

The weekend commentary devoted substantial ink to discussing the exact meaning of Yellen’s “six months” remark at last Wednesday’s FOMC press conference. This was spurred by the St Louis Fed’s Bullard’s comments on Friday where he suggested that Yellen’s “six month” estimate of the interval between QE ending and the first rate hikes was an assessment that was in line  with private sector surveys. Bullard’s comments on Friday precipitated a brief wobble in the S&P500 (-0.29%) late in the session. The weekend commentary suggested that perhaps Yellen had made a “gaffe” in her first press conference as Fed Chair (CNBC). Despite Bullards’ comments, Reuters said on Sunday that its survey of economists shows that Yellen’s comments have not altered their views. Ten dealers of 17 polled see rate hikes in the second half of 2015, with another four saying increases would not start until 2016.

Previewing what’s in store for the rest of the week, we have the release of the flash global manufacturing PMIs today in the Euroarea and US. Further out on the data docket, the release of US new homes sales and consumer confidence comes tomorrow, durable goods orders on Wednesday, initial jobless claims and Q4 GDP (3rd estimate) on Thursday, followed by personal income/spending data on Friday. In the Euroarea, German IFO will be released on Tuesday, followed by the ECB’s February money supply report and UK retail data on Thursday. Japan reports CPI on Friday. In China, the focus will be on Chinese bank earnings announcements throughout the week.

On the diplomatic front,. President Obama attends a G7 meeting in The Hague this week, called in response to the crisis in Ukraine. Obama will also meet with leaders from 20 nations to discuss nuclear security. In terms of the Fed, DB’s Joe Lavorgna notes that we have an eventful week of Fedspeak lined up.

This week’s lineup includes Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (non-voter) and the Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser (voter), who will both be speaking on the economyand monetary policy tomorrow. Bullard speaks on Wednesday afternoon where we may get some clarification of his comments from Friday. Sandra Pianalto’s speech on Thursday will not be less relevant, despite her impending retirement from the Cleveland Fed, because she is a useful bellwether of the moderates on the Committee. Chicago Fed President Evans (non-voter), one of the more dovish of the regional Presidents, also speaks on Thursday. Kansas City’s Esther George (non-voter), a well- known hawk, is the last scheduled Fed  speaker on Friday afternoon. Elsewhere the Fed releases its Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review on Wednesday which provides its assessment on bank’s ability to keep making dividend payments and funding share buy backs.

In the EM space, our strategists highlight two bellwether trade reports this week which will shed more light on regional Asian trade. Thailand and Hong Kong are expected to see a boost in exports after earlier reports were affected by poor weather and seasonal one-offs. In EMEA, there are rate meetings in Israel (Mon), Hungary (Tue), South Africa (Thu), Czech Republic (Thu) and Romania (Fri). There will also be landmark local elections held in Turkey (Sun) which are being viewed as a referendum on the future of PM Erdogan’s
government.


    



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Barack Obama does -not- want you to own this stock…

March 23, 2014
Sovereign Valley Farm, Chile

When it comes to investing money, there’s no such thing as a sure thing.

Even the ‘safest’ investment in the world (US Treasuries) is anything but safe.

I mean… on what planet does it make sense to loan your hard-earned cash to the biggest debtor that has ever existed in the history of the world?

Once you deduct taxes, the net return you’ll receive won’t keep pace with the official rate of inflation. It’s an insane investment… hardly ‘risk free’.

There’s risk in everything we do. There’s risk in making investments. There’s risk in doing nothing and simply holding cash.

This is one of the reasons why I like real assets. It’s very difficult for farmland to go to zero. And if I buy wisely and carefully, I can decrease my downside risk substantially.

It’s not often that the stock market brings us such opportunities.

Most stock markets around the world now depend on the whims of central bankers, not fundamentals.

And they’re so frothy with paper money that stock valuations are astronomical. There’s just no value left.

This is a huge reason why I don’t invest in stocks. But the opportunity in Russia today is so remarkable, even I had to make an exception.

Amid all the sanction talk since this whole Crimea debacle kicked off, Russia’s MICEX stock market index has tanked. So has the Russian ruble.

This decline has very little to do with a change in fundamentals and everything to do with political posturing. The White House went as far as to tell people to NOT buy Russian stocks. Apparently they listened.

The average large cap stock in Russia now has a price/earnings ratio of just 5.32 (compared to 17.20 for the S&P 500 in the US).

Plus the average price / book ratio in Russia is just 0.62. Peanuts.

Look at Gazprom as an example, which has a price/book ratio of about 0.33 and a P/E ratio of 2.33.

Gazprom’s market cap is roughly $80 billion. But it’s NET assets are worth about $260 billion. Plus the company generates a whopping $33 billion per year in profit.

This means (theoretically) that if you had an extra $80 billion laying around, you could buy Gazprom, sell off the assets, and put $180 billion in your pocket.

Obviously that couldn’t actually happen in real life. But it gives you a sense of the value at stake.

And when you can buy productive assets in an emotionally-charged, inefficient marketplace for substantially less than what they’re actually worth, it substantially reduces the downside risk, especially if you are holding for the long-term.

This is a major bargain that rarely comes along, especially given that there is very little which threatens these companies’ long-term earnings or dividends.

Gazprom is still going to produce oil and gas.

But if Russian stock prices AND the ruble recover, foreign investors will be looking at tremendous profits.

Even if stock prices stagnate, though, these companies are still generating significant profits and paying out dividends to their investors. So you’ll be getting paid handsomely to wait.

There are a number of Russian companies (like Gazprom) which trade on the Pink Sheets or foreign exchanges like the LSE.

But if you prefer to keep things uncomplicated, there are a number of ETFs which exclusively hold Russian stocks, like the SPDR S&P Russia Fund (RBL).

 

 

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Guess which precious metal is controlled by the Russians…

March 23, 2014
Bali, Indonesia

Palladium is like the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals. It never gets any respect.

If you ask someone about precious metals, in fact, just about everyone has heard of gold and silver. And occasionally platinum.

But palladium is one of those obscure precious metals that few people think about, or even know about.

Aside from actually having its own currency code (XPD), palladium is widely used in a variety of industrial applications, from spark plugs to catalytic converters to hydrocarbon ‘cracking’ to electronic components.

And here’s something most people don’t know: most of the world’s palladium is mined in Russia.

Since October 2013, Palladium prices have had a moderate boost—about a 5.3% increase in five months.

But given what’s happening in Russia, prices could soar. In fact, with trade sanctions looming, palladium could be taken off the world market indefinitely.

As the following chart shows, palladium has just broken out to a new 52-week high and is showing strong upward momentum.

1 year palladium Guess which precious metal is controlled by the Russians...

Moreover, if you look at the 5-year chart, it could be about to break out to even longer-term highs.

5 year palladium Guess which precious metal is controlled by the Russians...

I would consider buying palladium today, with a stop-loss order to protect your capital, at $759. That means if the market should prove this thesis wrong, the loss would be limited to just 4%.

I think the near-term upside target is the 5-year high of $855. That’s about an 8% gain from where we are today.

An upside of 8% versus a downside of 4% makes palladium a good risk/reward trade, given that the odds of the higher-price outcome are much better than the odds of the lower-price outcome.

But if tensions between the West and Russia escalate and trade sanctions stay in place for a prolonged period, $855 could be a very conservative upside target for palladium.

The last time Russia withheld palladium supplies from world markets back in 2000, the price rose 151% from a low of $433 in January 2000 to over $1,090 an ounce by January 2001.

In a scenario like that, palladium would be an incredibly profitable trade.

One easy way to take a position in palladium is via the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL on the New York Stock Exchange).

A new physical palladium ETF sponsored by Standard Bank has also just launched in South Africa.

And Absa Bank, which already sponsors the world’s largest platinum-backed ETF, has also announced it will launch a palladium ETF called NewPalladium. It will list on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on March 27th.

These new palladium ETF launches, coming at a time of tightening supply due to Russian sanctions, could easily add more upward momentum to palladium prices, as they will withdraw supply from the market to physically back their shares.

However, if you want to avoid the possibility of any counterparty risk, there’s no substitute for owning the physical metal yourself.

The Royal Canadian Mint has in the past minted palladium versions of its very popular and instantly recognizable Maple Leaf bullion coins.

You can also buy 1 troy ounce palladium bars from most major dealers.

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