Tag: finance

Neoconservatives planned regime change throughout the Middle East and North Africa 20 years ago. Robert Parry correctly points out that the Neocons have successfully “weathered the storm” of disdain after their Iraq war fiasco.

But the truth is that Obama has long done his best to try to implement those Neocon plans.

Similarly, ever since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the U.S. has pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran.

In 1997, Obama’s former foreign affairs adviser, and president Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser – Zbigniew Brzezinski – wrote a book called The Grand Chessboard arguing arguing that the U.S. had to take control of Ukraine (as well as Azerbaijan, South Korea, Turkey and Iran) because they were “critically important geopolitical pivots”.

Regarding Ukraine, Brzezinski said (hat tip Chris Ernesto):

Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.

 

***

 

However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

And now Obama is pushing us into a confrontation with Russia over Ukraine and the Crimea.

As Ernesto notes:

Late last year when Ukraine’s now-ousted president Viktor Yanukovych surprisingly canceled plans for Ukrainian integration into the European Union in favor of stronger ties with Russia, the US may have viewed Ukraine as slipping even further out of its reach.

 

At that point, with the pieces already in place, the US moved to support the ousting of Yanukovych, as evidenced by the leaked phone conversation between US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland [arch-Neocon Robert Kagan's wife]  and US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt.  When peaceful protests were not effective in unseating Yanukovych, the violence of the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party and Right Sector was embraced, if not supported by the west.

 

In today’s Ukraine, the US runs the risk of being affiliated with anti-Semitic neo-Nazis, a prospect it probably feels can be controlled via a friendly western media. But even if the risk is high, the US likely views it as necessary given the geopolitical importance of Ukraine, as Brzezinski mapped out in 1997.

In other words, Obama is following the same old playbook that the Neocons have been pushing for more than a decade.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/PG09bi George Washington

Submitted by James E Miller of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada,

It’s hard not to agree with the old aphorism “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” It’s nice to think we learn from our mistakes; yet we always seem to repeat them at some later date.

Reading the daily news, you would be hard-pressed to find mention that there is still an employment crisis unfolding in many industrialized countries. The New York Times recently reported that employers in the United States hired only 175,000 workers in February. This is apparently a cause for celebration among economists. The unemployment rate in the U.S. still remains at an historic high of 6.7%, and there appears to be no date in sight for a return of full employment, but no matter; the economy is supposedly gaining steam.

The only problem is, nobody seems to care much anymore. High unemployment is a constant reality now. Nearly six years of slagging job creation has created a cloud of apathy for most people. It’s just accepted that not everyone who wants to find work will be able to; or they will wander from low-wage job to low-wage job without any kind of security.

The current economic malaise is reminiscent of what the Great Depression was like. Persistently high unemployment with no conceivable end; massive government intervention in the marketplace; a changing industrial landscape; and even social and cultural transformation. We’re less than a century removed from the biggest economic hardship ever faced in America, and the same mishaps are unfolding in front of our eyes.

Then and now, something has remained perennial: the utter incompetence on government’s part to cure economic stagnation.

Newscasters, state officials, and academic economists all tell us government is capable of spending us into prosperity. No matter how much dough is thrown at the glob known as the “economy,” large numbers of people remain out of work. During the Depression, the glut of joblessness lasted for nearly fifteen years. Uncle Sam spent like a drunken sailor while swallowing up much of the economy in fascist scheme after fascist scheme.

The very same thing goes on today, all at the behest of Keynesian-type political actors who provide the intellectual ammunition necessary to justify government’s outstretched hand. With neatly obscure formulas and obtuse language, the apparatchik darlings of Keynes love branding themselves as deep-thinking scientists capable of engineering the perfect economy. When their policy is put to work, we get the opposite. Job creation stagnates, living standards slump, and misery spreads. The siphons of entrepreneurial growth don’t pump; they are bogged down with the grimy sludge of currency manipulation and government hubris.

After decades of constant failure, I mean this wholeheartedly: the followers of the Keynesian school don’t have a damn clue on how to fix the economy. Why my gauche phrasing? Their policy prescription is a complete and total failure. The Great Depression; the stagflation of the 1970s; the Great Recession we see today; in each instance, Washington was impotent to reverse the damage. Keynesians are either pathetically ignorant, or maliciously deceptive.

Taking rhetorical shots doesn’t mean much without some evidence. So let’s meet the Keynesians on their terms. First, economic science itself will be interpreted through the lens of positivism. That means data, in whatever form, will be used to justify whether something works or not. Of course the assumption will be made that spending is the driver of economic prosperity – not saving or investment. The same goes for boundless money printing, which is said to infuse the “animal spirits” with a rejuvenating elixir.

So what have they got for successes? Keynesians used to tout the efforts of Franklin Roosevelt (not so much Herbert Hoover, who was proto-Rooseveltian) during the Great Depression as vindication for their theory. I remember being told in no uncertain terms that Uncle Sam stepped up to save the downtrodden from excess capitalism in my American Presidency 301 class. Sure, it wasn’t an economics course; but it’s the same tale spun by economists anyway.

What does the data say? From 1931 to 1940, the unemployment rate never went south of 10%. From the onset of the Depression, Washington spending went up 97% under the Hoover Administration. According to the White House’s official statistics, the federal budget increased from $3.5 billion in 1931 to $13.6 billion in 1941, jumping in size year after year. A combination of deficit spending and tax hikes (admittedly not a Keynesian remedy) allowed for this gorge in consumption. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve goosed the economy by first stabilizing the monetary base and increasing the supply of money after the initial contraction during the Depression’s early years. According to the Historic Statistics of the United States, the Federal Reserve increased its holding of U.S. securities from $510 million in 1929 to over $6 billion in 1942. During the same period, the central bank’s balance sheet went from about $5.5 billion to $29 billion.

That’s no small stimulus. And yet the unemployment rate failed to drop significantly during the Depression years. Most of Keynes’s disciples admit that nearly fifteen years of high unemployment leaves much to be desired on the part of muscular government. The counterfactual is then deployed that Roosevelt’s domestic efforts lightened the economic burden foisted upon America. What finally put the Depression to bed, they argue, was the incredible amount of spending during World War II.

But as economic historian Robert Higgs shows, measures of economic performance were highly skewed during wartime. Unemployment fell and production ramped up, but this was due to the draft and building of armaments. Rationing was widespread to the point where basic foodstuffs and toiletries were scarce. If a wartime economy counts as prosperity, then the homeless today are the living embodiment of luxury.

World War II is a bunk fantasy that in no way proves the Keynesian theory correct. The same goes for the fascist orgy known as the New Deal. Fast-forward to today, and the same charlatans are preaching from the gospel of government interventionism. They implore Washington to fight back against the Great Recession with the same blunted tools: spending and money printing.

When the housing bubble burst and the economy began to tank, then-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke and crew nearly tripled the central bank’s balance sheet. As of right now, the Fed’s sheet stands at about $4 trillion. In 2008, it was at $800 billion. Not to be outdone, the federal government ramped up spending by running nearly-trillion dollar deficits year-after-year. Once again, all this effort has only made a slight dent in the unemployment rate.

From a strictly empirical perspective, the Keynesian theory is a disaster. Positivism wise, it’s a smoldering train wreck. You would be hard-pressed to comb through historical data and find great instances where government intervention succeeded in lowering employment without creating the conditions for another downturn further down the line.

No matter how you spin it, Keynesianism is nothing but snake oil sold to susceptible political figures. Its practitioners feign using the scientific method. But they are driven just as much by logical theory as those haughty Austrian school economists who deduce truth from self-evident axioms. The only difference is that one theory is correct. And if the Keynesians want to keep pulling up data to make their case, they are standing on awfully flimsy ground.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/PG08Ej Tyler Durden

“No provocations have been reported. The situation is quiet and under control,” notes Crimea’s Prime Minister Sergei Aksynov (despite plenty of chatter of pro-Ukraine buildings being attacked by pro-Russian supporters in Donetsk and Kharkiv). However, what is perhaps more important is that Interfax reports, voter turnout at Sunday’s referendum on Crimea’ future status had reached 73% by 6 p.m. (8 p.m. Moscow time), according to a posting on the referendum’s website. That is higher than every US presidential election since 1900. European leaders remain dissatisfied with this “illegal and illegitimate” vote, demand Russian forces drop back to pre-crisis levels, and are preparing new EU sanctions for Monday.

 

*CRIMEAN REFERENDUM TURNOUT AT 73% AT 6PM IN UKRAINE: MALYSHEV

*SEVASTOPOL REFERENDUM TURNOUT AT 84%, MALYSHEV SAYS

 

 

But European leaders are not for the democracy…

• *EU SAYS IT WON’T RECOGNISE OUTCOME OF CRIMEAN REFERENDUM
• *EU REITERATES CRIMEAN REFERENDUM IS ILLEGAL, ILLEGITIMATE
• *EU CALLS ON RUSSIA TO WITHDRAW FORCES TO PRE-CRISIS NUMBERS
• *EU FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTERS TO EVALUATE SITUATION TOMORROW
• *EU TO DECIDE ON ADDITIONAL MEASURES AGAINST RUSSIA TOMORROW

So Barroso and Van Rompuy are not amused – we wonder what Frau Merkel thinks…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fBaZ7k Tyler Durden

The Curious Case of the PM Fix vs. the AM Fix

James McShirley

My investigation into gold trading irregularities, including the time around the London fixes, initially began after reading the work of the late Adrian Douglas, along with Dmitri Speck. As a 30-year veteran of the futures market (lumber being home turf) inconsistencies and anomalies were easy to spot. While eventually trading the gold market I discovered a veritable laundry list of suspicious trading activity. One with exceedingly high odds – 80% in fact – was the London PM fix settling lower than the AM fix. That led me to other New York/London-centric trading anomalies. The odds of the PM fix being lower 80% of the time was consistent with the pervasive overall down trend during London/New York trading periods. From January 1st of 2006 to August 2011 gold gained $1,397.15, or 368%, having traveled from $520.75 to its all-time high of $1917.90. Judging by the PM fix, however, you would swear gold was in a great bear market.

The curious thing about the specific anomaly of the lower PM fix vs.the AM fix though is how after occurring for over a decade it began to slowly abate in the year leading up to the CFTC investigation announced on March 13th, 2013. It then reversed, and the PM fix began gaining on the AM fix after the investigation. The trend further accelerated upward after the U.K.-FCA investigation was announced on November 26th of last year. After a decade or more this trading “anomaly” basically evaporated into thin air! Why the sudden change? If the London fixes were just part of normal “price discovery” and not somehow irregular then why does it appear that March 13th and November 26th 2013 were somehow seminal events? Back on April 5th, 2013 I noted on the LeMetropole site:

“One rule that is on hiatus lately is the cumulative gain/loss of the PM fix vs. the AM fix. While one month isn’t a trend it is curious that since March 1st the cumulative PM fixes are $57.00 HIGHER than the cumulative AM fixes.”

Talk about a sudden reversal! Later, on July 2nd I further noted:

“One recent change of pace in the cartel game plan has been the timing of the bigger hits on gold. While the PM fixes in June were generally still under pressure the vast amount of the cumulative losses occurred after the PM fix, and before the AM fix. In fact for the entire month of June gold lost $210.50 from the first PM fix of the month to the last, yet only $11.50 of that occurred in the typical post-AM fix time frame.”

The trend of the stronger PM fix vs. the AM fix continues unabated to the present, and as mentioned has accelerated from late November. Exactly one year has gone by since the CFTC London fix investigation was announced and the fixes have strangely reversed polarity from their decade-long trend. Coincidence? More recently on February 20th I further noted:

“The lower PM fix cartel rule that dominated trading for so many years continues to act contrary. Much like the Friday smash rule something has been different for some time. Even though the month of January was sharply sideways price wise (+$14) the PM fix was showing underlying strength. In fact 18 out of the 22 trading days were higher, or no lower than $5. Of those 4 days that were lower than $5 all but one occurred during the crucial op.ex./FND period at the end of the month. The actual up/down tally was 14 up, 7 down, and 1 unch.

For the year so far 33 out of 37 PM fixes have been higher, or no lower than $5. The greatest February PM fix loss so far is a rather miniscule 2.75. Ten PM fixes have exceeded $5 gains, while only four have exceeded $5 losses. The cumulative PM fix gains stand at $138.50, while the cumulative losses are only $58.00, a net gain of $80.50. The old cartel ways would always have the PM fix lower even when gold was in rally mode. The fact that it hasn’t been lower, even during periods when gold has been selling off is worth noting.”

Worth noting indeed! Wednesday’s +$10.25 PM fix vs. the AM fix made it a cumulative +$103.25 for the year, with 45 out of the past 49 PM fixes higher, or no lower than $5. Other cartel rules remain AWOL as well, with the crucial selloff periods, and algo bombs in general still curiously absent. The old saw about there being few coincidences in the markets rings true. Can it be coincedental that the PM fixes have behaved much differently in the year after the investigations compared to the years prior?

Normal price discovery or rats scurrying from bright lights? Gold declinedin the 12 months post-CFTC investigation by nearly twice as much as in
the prior year, yet the PM fix gained $266.25 vs. a prior loss of $39.25! This is a stunning reversal!

The argument the gold isn’t manipulated because if it were traders would step in and arbitrage the London fixes is easily refuted. In a nut, they do. Deep pockets and MOPE however are all that matter. In the case of TBTF banks there can be no deeper pockets. In a QE-mad environment where trillions are spent supporting TBTF banks any potential gold trading losses would be miniscule compared to the collapse of a $600 trillion + global paper derivative scheme and the commensurate change in “inflation expectations”. Confidence is everything, and in reality it would be implausible for the London fix and other gold barometers to NOT be manipulated. Actually manipulators with deep pockets are almost assuredly making money on gold trading. They can always withstand being offside long enough in any given trade to eventually flush weaker spec longs. The fact that commercials (read TBTF banks) have been perennially the major short in both gold and silver for decades is in of itself manipulative evidence and without merit in a freely traded market. The fact that all 9 of the trading anomalies I follow involve gold price suppression, rather than gold price promotion is telling.

Any discussion of the London Gold fix manipulation must be taken in the context of a much broader gold manipulation agenda. Treating the London fix as a potential one-off problem without considering the enormous body of gold manipulation evidence available, particularly at http://www.gata.org/ is disingenuous. Of those 9 aforementioned trading anomalies I have researched (the London fix anomaly being just one of those) none could occur in a freely traded market. The most suspicious of all isn’t even the London Fix, but rather the “1% and 2% rule”. As I have documented for over 10 years nearly all gold rallies are capped at +1% basis the Comex pit close, which is the most widely reported price. A few, which I dub “expanded limit” are capped at exactly +2%. So outrageous is this behavior that I have predicted hundreds of daily gold rallies virtually to the exact tick. I have even predicted in advance on more than one occasion a sequence of 4 consecutive trading days within pennies of each day’s close. To do this once as you know would be extraordinary, to do it over and over is akin to winning a Powerball lottery over, and over. Had somebody won a Powerball numerous times you would immediately suspect the game was rigged. The same holds true for gold trading on a daily basis. With HFT algos it has become child’s play to intervene with surgical precision.

Had I won a Powerball multiple times I would expect to be investigated for fraud. Such odds in irregular gold trading activity have been ignored for too long, and any investigation is most welcome. Pollyanna beliefs about gold manipulation are terribly misguided. In light of ZIRP, LIBOR, and virtually every new day bringing another trading scandal is it realistic to claim gold is the only market NOT manipulated? My research has involved thousands of hours, and as you might guess it’s a tedious venture. It is data and fact-based, not just opinion or “conspiracy theory”. Anybody disputing manipulation should first review all data, including the works of Adrian Douglas, Dmitri Speck, and the GATA archives. Or, if you’re up for it, spend thousands of hours of your life researching and DYODD.

James McShirley
March 14th, 2014

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gqEHw1 lemetropole

"President Putin has started a game of Russian roulette and I think the United States and the West have to be very clear in their response," states Sen. Foreign Relations Committed Chair Robert Menendez among a slew of Sunday morning talk-show rhetoric from US politicians with the White House's Dan Pfeiffer adding "President Putin has a choice about what he's going to do here. Is he going to continue to further isolate himself, further hurt his economy, further diminish Russian influence in the world, or is he going to do the right thing?" As the "sham referendum" continues, Reuters, however, reports that Ukraine's acting defense minister believes Russia and Ukraine have agree a truce until March 21st.

 

Sunday Morning Talk-Show Rhetoric… (via AP)

If Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't back down in Crimea, he will face penalties from the West that will hurt the Russian economy and diminish Moscow's influence in the world, the White House said Sunday.

 

White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer said the Obama administration's top priority is supporting the new Ukrainian government "in every way possible." He also said the United States would not recognize the results of a referendum taking place in Crimea Sunday on whether it should become part of Russia.

 

Pfeiffer said everything that Russia has done in Crimea has been a violation of international law and bad for stability in the region.

 

"President Putin has a choice about what he's going to do here. Is he going to continue to further isolate himself, further hurt his economy, further diminish Russian influence in the world, or is he going to do the right thing?" Pfeiffer said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

 

…

 

"President Putin has started a game of Russian roulette and I think the United States and the West have to be very clear in their response because he will calculate about how far he can go," said Sen. Robert Menendez, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

 

Menendez appeared on Fox News Sunday along with the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee. Corker said the U.S. and Europe were entering a "defining moment" in their relationship with Russia.

 

"Putin will continue to do this. He did it in Georgia a few years ago. He's moved into Crimea and he will move into other places unless we show that long-term resolve."

 

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut returned early Sunday from meetings in Ukraine. He called an annexation vote taking place in Crimea a "sham referendum." He said that Ukrainians he talked to, both inside the government and outside, said war could occur if Russia attempts to annex more territory. They indicated that "If Russia really does decide to move beyond Crimea it's going to be bloody and the fight may be long," he said on ABC's "This Week."

But it appears truce has been reached for now…

The defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a truce in Crimea until March 21, Ukraine's acting defense minister said on Sunday.

 

"An agreement has been reached with (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Defense Ministry on a truce in Crimea until March 21," Ihor Tenyukh told journalists on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting.

 

"No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea during that time. Our military sites are therefore proceeding with a replenishment of reserves."

As Ukrainian armed forces appear resigned to the loss:

 

On #Crimea truce, base cmmdr says: "now it’s clear that we’ll become a part of #Russia so they have to find some sort of peaceful solution."

— Alexander Marquardt (@MarquardtA) March 16, 2014

 

 

No confirmation as yet from the Russian authorities… which, it would appear, merely gives Putin more time to arrange his military pieces since for sure he shows no signs of backing down… as the tanks keep rolling

 

???? ????? ???? ???????? ?????? ?? ????????? ?? http://t.co/4dhb8horXU??????????-?????-????-????????-?????/ http://ift.tt/NkoFgc

— ??????? ???????? (@novostidnua) March 16, 2014

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1iRN63l Tyler Durden

On or about February 23rd, 2014, Mt. Gox (on of the larger bitcoin exchanges) collapsed. The MSM (mainstream media) had a field day…

I warned everybody that the fall of Mt. Gox was simply a poorly managed small business getting its just dues. To correlate the fortunes of Mt. Gox with the fortunes of the Bitcoin ecosystem is akin correlating the fortune of the World Wide Web with that of Pets.com or Alta Vista in the 1990s. Sounds silly doesn’t it? Well, fast forward 3 weeks from the Gox’d experience and this is what we find… The week after the media frenzy regarding Mt. Gox started to fade, the price of BTC (bitcoins) started a dramatic phase of price stabilization. This apparent price stabilization was verified by the very dramatic drop in standard deviation.

If we drill down to the weeks in question, we find… 

This price stabilization has occurred even before the wide scale adoption of UltraCoin. 

As always, I’m looking for:

1. financial capital
2. intellectual capital
3. developers, management and sales/marketing expertise.

If you have any of this in abundance, hit me at reggie@ultra-coin.com.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nv0c8F Reggie Middleton

With Malaysian authorities frustrated (and seemingly confused),  and US and Chinese government offering "help" to solve this increasingly mysterious disappearance of the Boeing 777-200ER over a week ago, we thought a quick summation of all that we know would be useful. The possibilities remain numerous but it appears the latest line of investigation is the pane vanished through "deliberate action" with the airline pilots coming under increasing scrutiny.

 

 

SATURDAY

7.24am: Malaysia Airlines confirms a jet lost contact with Subang air traffic control at 2.40am after it took off from Kuala Lumpur

10.30am: Families waiting at Beijing airport are told passengers will not arrive

By night: International rescue effort is under way. Two passengers used passports – one Austrian, one Italian – reported stolen in Thailand. Airline does not rule out terrorism

 

SUNDAY

2am: Airline says it last heard from MH370 at 1.30am, not 2.40am

2.43am: Airline chief executive makes first public statement

Noon: Hong Kong Immigration Department confirms 45-year-old local woman was on board

 

MONDAY

The largest rescue flotilla in Chinese naval history – four warships and five civilian and commercial vessels – speeds overnight to waters between Malaysia and Vietnam. Ten Chinese satellites join the hunt

Night: Airline announces it will give 31,000 yuan (HK$39,200) to relatives of each passenger as a special condolence payment

 

TUESDAY

Two senior Malaysian military officials say missing jet flew for an hour off its flight course and at a lower altitude after disappearing from civil aviation radar, partly explaining why Malaysia expanded search area to include Strait of Malacca two days earlier.

3pm: Malaysian police say one of two passengers using a stolen passport is an Iranian teenager, and release photos of both

 

WEDNESDAY

Beijing slams Malaysia's "pretty chaotic" and conflicting information as Kuala Lumpur officials fail to pinpoint the plane's last known whereabouts.

Malaysian media report the government has invited a witch doctor to help look for the plane by using a magic carpet, two coconuts and a wooden stick.

 

THURSDAY

Malaysian military confirms spotting an unidentified aircraft on its radar about 1 hour and 20 minutes after MH370's signal went cold. Airline says it has not been determined if that was the missing jet.

Malaysian authorities vow to banish witch doctor if he again carries out a ritual at the country's main airport after the scene draws ridicule around the world.

 

FRIDAY

Investigators are increasingly certain the jet turned back across the Malay Peninsula after losing communication.

International search expands westwards towards Indian Ocean.

 

YESTERDAY

Search narrows to two air corridors as Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak confirms plane kept flying after it "vanished". Officials also confirm the jet's disappearance was a "deliberate act".

 

 

And more on the "deliberate action" from WSJ,

Malaysian police are examining the home flight simulator of the pilot of Malaysia Airlines  Flight 370 in a closer focus on the plane's crew amid suspicion that the aircraft disappeared because of foul play.

 

The homes and of Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid were searched by police Saturday and investigators spoke to the pilot's family, the Malaysian Transport Ministry said in a statement.

 

The searches came as Prime Minister Najib Razak had said that he believes that the plane vanished through "deliberate action'' on March 8, when it disappeared with 239 people on board on a flight between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing.

 

…

 

The disappearance of Flight 370 has baffled investigators for more than a week, but Mr. Najib's comments have appeared to corroborate the analysis of U.S. investigators, which determined that one or more people on the plane deliberately changed its course and tried to mask its location.

 

Malaysia's leader says communications systems on Flight 370 were cut off by "deliberate action." U.S. officials are investigating whether a third system, on the plane's lower deck, was also compromised. WSJ's Jason Bellini explains.

 

Colleagues have described Capt. Zaharie as an aviation enthusiast who loved to fly and built a flight simulator at home.

 

…

 

The Transport Ministry statement said that Malaysia was treating both search corridors with "equal importance'' and is asking countries to provide further assistance in the search for the Boeing BA +1.00%  777-200, including satellite data and analysis, ground-search capabilities, radar data and maritime air assets, and how best to deploy them.

 

Malaysian officials have contacted countries along the corridors including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, China, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia and France, the statement said.

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gw13Ra Tyler Durden

More of the same. Via the Kremlin:

• PUTIN, MERKEL DISCUSSED UKRAINE CRISIS BY PHONE, KREMLIN SAYS
• PUTIN TELLS MERKEL RUSSIA WILL RESPECT CHOICE MADE BY CRIMEANS
• PUTIN SAYS CONCERNED ABOUT TENSIONS IN SOUTH, EAST UKRAINE
• PUTIN TELLS MERKEL CRIMEA REFERENDUM ON JOINING RUSSIA IS LEGAL

Even as the West (and NATO) continues to reject any legitimacy of the referendum.

So what happens when the people vote to join Russia, Russia formally annexes the territory and calls the western diplomatic bluff? The answer may be provided as early as 8pm local Ukrainian time when the polls are set to close, and it will likely involve further provocations such as this one, reported moments ago by Sky News: “Interfax reports three Ukrainian military trains carrying equipment into eastern Ukraine have been intercepted by Russian forces.”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ocff49 Tyler Durden

2014 is no party for stock market investors. January was a smack in the face, especially newcomers, as the markets decided to go for a 5 percent nosedive. But they again recovered in February and some indices put up new all-time highs; others are on the fence and you can feel that doubt is creeping in as investors are starting to feel uncomfortable having a large part of their portfolio invested. As a result, March also turns out to be a challenging month for stocks. And this should not come as a surprise, as different signals indicate that the market situation is getting overheated.

We cannot blame anyone here. The current bull market has recently had its fifth birthday and is almost breaking the top 3 of the longest stock market rallies in history. With an increase of 147% for the Dow Jones index from its March 2009 low, it is obvious that the magnitude and momentum of this bull market is just as qualified for the history books as its duration. That is clearly visible on the next chart (source: Barclays).

You can also see that we have seen better and longer bull markets in the past. In the ‘50s, we had a seven year bull market and the bull market of the ‘90s lasted for almost ten years! Just to be clear: a bull market remains theoretically intact as long as an index does not drop by more than 20 percent from a high. There is plenty of upside in other words, but the air does get thinner the higher we go. Naturally, the upward potential has decreased and as history has taught us, at one point the cable on this elevator will snap and we will go down a lot faster than we came up.

The question, of course, is when will the music stop? That has always been a tough call to make. With regards to valuation, we are already in overtime at the moment. The markets are generously valued at this point, more specifically when looking at market capitalization versus GDP (Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator). Another comparable ratio, however, is also showing warning signs. The Tobin Q ratio measures the total market cap of non-financial listed companies in relation to the replacement value of the assets of these companies. The ratio is a good check to see if the fair value of these companies is deviating from their stock price. Above 1x, this ratio indicates that investors are prepared to pay a lot more for expected performance and goodwill.

The above chart from Ed Yardini clearly shows that the actual position of the Tobin Q ratio, as well as the adjusted version, has been living north of the 1x level since the fourth quarter of 2013. In the past, namely in the seventies, the current position would have been enough to cause turmoil. Naturally, there are exceptions as evidenced by spike around the dot com boom, but still…

Still, it feels like the 2000-period on the stock market. Just have a look at the chart below, which compares the S&P 500 to the Rydex Asset Ratio (Bears versus Bulls). It’s been 13 years since the ratio dropped this low. Investors are pouring massive amounts of cash into equity funds (long only) and liquidating their short / hedge funds and money market funds. This again is huge warning sign for the markets.

And that is precisely the problem investors have today. On the one hand, valuation and duration are above average, but that does not necessarily mean that we are at the dawn of a big stock market correction. This stock market rally could last for a few more years and valuations have a lot more room to grow before we can even start talking about a bubble. On the other hand, it is clear that the rally is having a tough time repeating its 2013 performance, at least for now.

That is why vigilance is in order. Indeed, investing is making an estimation regarding the future, taking healthy probabilities into account. As the market rally persists, its effective life span decreases; that is pure logic. Unfortunately, logic is not always what governs the stock market. Nevertheless we have become more careful in 2014 and have advised our subscribers to take profits of the table here and there, without getting out of the market completely. We rather wait and see for now as things could go either way from this point.

Protect your capital: read our GUIDE TO GOLD!

 

Sprout Money offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies from Sprout Money are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Technology Report.

Follow us on Twitter @SproutMoney

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nuFSEh Sprout Money

Reassessing Our Lives – The Value of Being Centered

The Sovereignty Series

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

 

To subscribe to 'Dispatches', a periodic newsletter from Cognitive Dissonance and TwoIceFloes Creations, please click here. 

 

Most of us will argue that on those occasions when we reach critical decision points in our life we believe they are successfully navigated. Just as important we believe the vast majority of our decisions are based upon current data, the present state of our personal affairs and how it all fits in with our perceived life goals.

Quite frankly, for many of us this is an illusion we embrace in order not to upset our sense of self and our positioning within the ‘real’ world we call ours. In reality we rarely deviate much from our present path, a path more often chosen for us by opportunity and circumstance then by directed thought and conscious decision.

When do we ever pull back and thoroughly assess where we are and what we want, not based upon debt or family pressures or even what our employment situation demands of us, but upon what we really truly desire of ourselves? Until recently, for this author at least, the honest answer was not very often.

In fact the last time I conducted this type of thorough self assessment was back in 1990 when I completely changed my career and life direction. While the decision was right for me at the time, it was now well past stale and moldy, the ‘sell by’ date long past expiration.

Since that critical juncture in my life I had not considered conducting another self assessment of this sort with any real seriousness. If anything I would engage in fantastical daydreaming about how neat this might be or how liberating living that way could be. To be frank I did not want to back myself into an emotional corner, to come to a conclusion contrary to where I was presently positioned in life and then not follow through.

No one wishes to face their own impotence, to fail their ‘self’ and then have nowhere to hide. It is best not to have tried rather than fail and be unmasked and miserable. Sometimes we are most embarrassed and ashamed when bare naked and fully exposed to our self.

This is the deeply conditioned slave mentality which I and so many others struggle with, a perspective that helps to explain quite well the present state of the zombie nation. We dull the ever present pain of our own failures with food, drink, drugs, TV, work, whatever it takes to forget if only for another moment more.

I did know that I was growing increasingly unhappy with my chosen profession and I wanted out. But like a deer in the headlights I was frozen in place and unable to make any significant decisions because of all the entanglements, real or otherwise, that I thought were tying me down.

Some I believed were financial, some physical, some emotional, but all were blown way out of proportion to the reality I was trying to avoid. One must build the walls of our own cage higher than we are willing to climb if we are to remain safely confined within our own mind.

In short I was unhappy enough to think about radical change, but just content enough (‘sated’ is probably a much better term to use here) with the status quo that I didn’t wish to upset my carefully stacked house of cards. Who really wants to gather up all their Jacks and fling them high into the air in order to see what comes up when they all fall down?

Mostly this was because I had never honestly asked myself “What it is that I desire most” or “How would I like to live”? Instead I would ask myself the normal questions society directs us towards; what is it that I want to ‘do’, or what do I want to ‘be’ when I grow up, get out of school, change careers or retire?

Think about one of the first questions you ask a stranger you are meeting for the first time in a casual social setting. Or what is asked of you during that same social function. “So….what do you do”? The honest answer is that we live in our own mental straitjacket with our body and life dragged along, securely attached via our own carefully constructed ball and chain.

For most of us the ‘life’ decision process, at least initially, works in reverse. We start off listing what it is we don’t want and move forward from there. And the number one item at the top of most lists of undesirables is the following……“I don’t wish to be poor”.

Since we are forever focused on the ‘Money Meme’ every decision radiates out from that central focal point. It may help to remember that the all controlling money meme permeates so deeply into our childhood that the tooth fairy brings money in exchange for recently removed used body parts.

OK………well, if I don’t wish to be poor I will ‘need’ (as opposed to ‘want’) a good education followed by a decent job to start my career, then marriage, kids, cars, house etc. Before we know it our exercise wheel is up to speed and we are off to the races on our never ending run to nowhere.

Back in 1990 I changed everything in my life after nearly two decades wasted. Because I headed off the deep end just after graduating from high school, rather than money being my central focus it was another equally damaging obsession that I revolved around.

Seventeen years later, my life in tatters by my own hand but still well along in the process of living, I struggled to move forward while balancing single parenthood demands with the need to earn a living.

The decisions I made at that point suited my life situation, not my happiness. I did what needed to be done to finish raising my son, who was then only five years of age, and to begin the process of cleaning up the mess I had created which trailed far behind me.

When the time came for my son to leave home and move on, essentially thirteen years later with me still single and uninvolved, I settled in to begin the serious work of examining the world around me, something I never fully pursued earlier since life was demanding my attention after I finally got my act together.

Back in 1990 after I awoke from my stupor, I saw contradictions and cognitive dissonances as far as the eye could see, but I deliberately chose not to look too deep in order to maintain some semblance of stability in my son’s life, not to mention my own. It was years, actually more than a decade, before I felt stable enough to really begin to deeply examine what I perceived as wrong with the world.

Once we begin the process of questioning everything, eventually we begin to seriously question ourselves, a course of action that often derives its value from the procedure itself rather than any actual results obtained. If we find the courage to travel far enough down the rabbit hole we find ourselves face to face with……….well, with our ‘self’. It is then that we reach a decision point unlike any we have encountered up to this point in our lives.

Do we travel a path, the path, any path that ultimately frees us from ourselves (or at least gets us a little bit closer), one which opens up an entirely new panorama of choices, the road less traveled if you will? Or do we look into the abyss, experience only disorientation and fear, then rapidly retreat to the perceived safety of our existing familiar surroundings.

If we have remained in a continuous state of low level pain for a long enough period of time, the prospect of making radical changes in order to relieve that pain is not as inviting as it might seem at first blush. The elevated level of pain we mentally and emotionally project that will result from the change is nearly always believed to be much worse than it actually turns out to be.

A perfect example of this is the person with a nagging toothache who is frightened of the dentist. On an accumulated basis that person might experience ten times more pain over a month’s time before finally capitulating to the inevitable trip to the dentist, rather than if he had just ripped the tooth out at home with some pliers. Procrastination is just as much a process of bargaining with ourselves as it is fear and consequence avoidance.

This isn’t to say that one must change everything in order to begin the process of being true to oneself. Becoming personally sovereign in the middle of an insane asylum is a journey at best and not a destination. One can never be truly clean when we wash in filthy water, but we can begin to filter the water and improve the conditions under which we bathe.

The thing is that the end result for many who go down this road is not a product of any one decision, but of a series of half steps and reluctant conclusions that lead to a fundamental recognition. Eventually we come to understand that if we are to be true to ourselves we can no longer live in the manner we currently are. It is then that we discover if we have the courage to take a chance and move deeper down into the rabbit hole, or do we scurry away back to the perceived safety of the herd’s insanity.

I say this not to be judgmental of anything the reader is or is not doing. I live in a very fragile glass house with no intention of throwing stones or examining the quality of your life’s construction. Nor do I claim to have arrived at my destination and thus am qualified to give advice and direction. What I am doing works for me, and most likely will not work for you precisely because we are all unique individuals with distinctively different needs and life situations.

While I have clearly stated that personal sovereignty is a ‘State of Mind’, meaning we adopt a particular mindset that fully encompasses total personal responsibility for our ‘self’, it also requires that we be more centered than most of us presently are. If we are unhappy with our lives, or if we are in denial about our unhappiness which simply pushes us further and further away from our center, trying to adopt the personal sovereignty mindset is nearly impossible.

Take that first step; reassess where you are and why you aren’t somewhere else. Look deeply, ask those difficult questions of your ‘self’, push your outer boundaries and scale those cognitive walls. You have little to lose and everything to gain…..including your centering. Deliberately and consciously push that start button and begin the process within your ‘self’.

 

03-16-2014

Cognitive Dissonance

 

www.TwoIceFloes.com is unlike anything you will find on the web, a truly unique destination. There you will find distinctive Premium Members only articles as well as discussions on wellness and health, homesteading, spirituality & philosophy and most importantly ‘safe’ forums not found anywhere else. Come by for a peek and stay a while.

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1oc8hvP Cognitive Dissonance