China Widens Dollar Trading Band From 1% To 2%, Yuan Volatility Set To Spike

In the aftermath in the recent surge in China’s renminbi volatility which saw it plunge at the fastest pace in years, many, us included, suggested that the immediate next step in China’s “fight with speculators” (not to mention the second biggest trade deficit in history), was for the PBOC to promptly widen the Yuan trading band, something it hasn’t done since April 2012, with the stated objective of further liberalizing its monetary system and bringing the currency that much closer to being freely traded and market-set. Overnight it did just that, when it announced it would widen the Yuan’s trading band against the dollar from 1% to 2%.

The PBOC’s overnight release:

The healthy development of China’s current foreign exchange market, trading body independent pricing and risk management capabilities continue to increase. To meet the requirements of market development, increase the intensity of market-determined exchange rate, and establish a market-based, managed floating exchange rate system, the People’s Bank of China decided to expand the foreign exchange market, the floating range of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, is now on the relevant matters are announced as follows:

 

Since March 17, 2014, inter-bank spot foreign exchange market trading price of the RMB against the U.S. dollar floating rate of expansion from 1% to 2%, or a daily inter-bank spot foreign exchange market trading price of the RMB against the U.S. dollar foreign exchange transactions in China can be Center announced the same day the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar and down 2% in the amplitude fluctuations. Designated foreign exchange banks to provide customers with the highest cash offer price of $ day of the minimum cash purchase price difference does not exceed the magnitude of the day the central parity rate expanded from 2% to 3%, other provisions remain in compliance, “the People’s Bank of China on the interbank foreign exchange market Trading foreign exchange designated banks listed on the exchange rate and the exchange rate management issues related to notice “(Yin Fa [2010] No. 325) execution.

 

People’s Bank of China will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism of the market, further develop the role of the market in the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, strengthen two-way floating RMB exchange rate flexibility, to maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level.

Amusingly, we may have the first attempt at forward guidance by yet another central bank: that of China. As the WSJ explains: “There is no basis for big appreciation of the renminbi,” the PBOC said, noting that China’s trade surplus now represents only 2.1% of its gross domestic product. At the same time, “there is no basis for big depreciation of renminbi,” the central bank added, saying that risks in China’s financial system are “under control” and the country’s big foreign-exchange reserves can serve as a big buffer against any external shocks.

Alas, in China merely soothing words hardly ever do the job which is why “while pledging to give the market a bigger role in setting the yuan’s exchange rate, the PBOC said it would still implement “necessary adjustments” to prevent big, abnormal fluctuations in the yuan’s exchange rate.”

The macro thinking behind China’s move was foretold well in advance, but for those who missed it, the WSJ does a good recap:

the change, which followed Beijing’s landmark move in 2012 to double the yuan’s trading bandwidth, is seen as an important step toward establishing a market-based exchange-rate system, whereby the yuan would move up and down just like any other major currency.

 

The exchange-rate reform is part of China’s plan to overhaul its creaky financial sector, elevate the country’s status in the international monetary system and someday challenge the U.S. dollar as the de facto global currency.

 

A freer yuan can also help China deflect foreign complaints about its currency policies. The U.S. and other advanced economies have pressed Beijing for years to relax its hold on the yuan and allow it to appreciate at a faster pace. The hope is to boost consumer demand in China as consumers in Western countries such as the U.S. and Europe pull back amid still-fragile economies.

 

The move to widen the yuan’s trading range comes as China’s juggernaut economic machine is slowing down, leading to questions of whether leaders would continue to press ahead on fundamental economic change, or pull back to help struggling companies.

For some even the doubling in the rate band is not enough:

Widening the band would give a greater indication of how the market values the yuan. A prominent Chinese economist, Yu Yongding, for instance, advocates that the daily band be widened to 7.5% in either direction, which would essentially let the market fully determine the rate.

But perhaps the biggest message from today’s announcement is that China is preparing to focus far more on its internal affairs rather than dealing with daily FX manipulation, as well as the micromanagement of China’s reserves, which recently may or may not have been sod off in the form of US Treasurys.

Meanwhile, loosening its hold on the yuan can also help the PBOC focus more on domestic monetary policy while reducing the need for currency intervention by the central bank.

 

That is because when the yuan’s floating range gets bigger, the yuan won’t touch the upper or lower limit of the band as frequently as it did in the past, thereby making it less necessary for the PBOC to meddle in the currency market in a bid to rein in or prop up the yuan’s value.

 

As a result, with the expanded trading band, the PBOC is expected to issue fewer yuan for the purpose of exchange-rate intervention, and that could leave the central bank with more room to manage the domestic monetary policy.

 

“The PBOC will still resort to intervention, but a wider trading band means that it may not need to intervene as readily as it did in the past,” said Christy Tan, a currency specialist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

One thing is certain: as the world digests the latest out of the country that creates credit at a pace that is five times greater than the US, the volatility in the CNY will soar, at jthe worst possible time. Because as we explained before, all global specs, especially those out of Hong Kong need, is for the USDCNY to surge above 6.20 for the margin calls to start coming in fast and furious.

* * *

Finally, here are some kneejerk reactions by Wall Street analysts, via Bloomberg.

UBS

 

  • The action, coupled with more two- way volatility, could help discourage “hot money” inflows and encourage companies and banks to be more vigilant about exchange-rate risks, Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS AG in Hong Kong, says in an e-mail.
  • Action doesn’t have direct implications for direction of CNY against USD
  • UBS still sees exchange rate “broadly unchanged, with increased two-way volatility”
  • Action isn’t surprising because central bank has said for a qhile that it would widen band soon: Wang

Morgan Stanley

  • “We do not think the PBOC took this move to accelerate the CNY depreciation for mercantile interests to stabilize growth,” Morgan Stanley economist Helen Qiao says in e-mailed comment.
  • Wider yuan band will help deter “carry trade speculators” as volatility increases
  • Action is “largely in line with our expectation, as a major step in China’s FX reform” and is part of government’s “continued reform efforts”
  • Recent CNY depreciation created precondition for band widening

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

  • With PBOC dollar purchases being key driver in recent yuan weakness, it will be challenging for yuan to trade at both sides of the doubled trading band in a symmetric fashion, Andy Ji, FX strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says in email interview.
  • Yuan is unlikely to depreciate substantially without PBOC intervention, given the status of current account surplus and without broad dollar strength
  • Yuan may weaken in 1H then strengthen in 2H, similar to the patterns in past two years

BEA

  • PBOC is likely to guide a weaker yuan through its daily reference rate to ensure there won’t be renewed one-way appreciation bets after doubling the trading band, Bank of East Asia FX analyst Kenix Lai says in phone interview today.
  • Yuan band widening announcement shouldn’t be too surprising to market given the PBOC has already signaled such a move in Feb.
  • Yuan should still be able to deliver mild appreciation in 2014 as China continues to push for yuan internationalization

Bank of America

  • Weaker yuan fixings in past month or so has changed one-way appreciation bias, Albert Leung, BofAML local market strategist for Asia, says in email interview.
  • PBOC wants to widen band when market view is more balanced
  • Not very surprising in terms of band-widening timing
  • Another band widening this year is unlikely
  • Knee-jerk market reaction should be higher volatility, with higher NDF, DF implied rates
  • Long-dated NDFs could weaken further, though not necessarily the daily official fixings
  • Any follow-through after the knee-jerk and whether yuan will weaken further will highly depend on PBOC daily fixing and how macro data and corporate credit situation

ANZ

  • With the band widening and, more importantly, recent spate of weak China data, the bias is for near-term yuan weakness and potentially higher volatility, ANZ FX strategist Irene Cheung says in email interview today.
  • Yuan band widening didn’t come as a surprise
  • Band widening doesn’t necessarily relate to recent PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s statement on interest rate liberalization
  • Another widening won’t come so soon given the last move was 2 yrs ago in 2012


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hm5qw4 Tyler Durden

Weekly Outlook: Euro Resilience is Remarkable

Our technical note a week ago expected the dollar, yen and Swiss franc to outperform and for global equity markets to retreat.  However, the euro’s resilience continues to frustrate the otherwise respectable market calls.

 

The yen was the easily the strongest of the major currencies, gaining almost 2% against the dollar. The Swiss franc (0.6%) would have been the second strongest, but the hawkishness of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand helped push the Kiwi ahead of it (0.8%). Our technical work had identified the Australian dollar as particular vulnerable. It and sterling were the two weakest currencies last week.  Both lost about 0.5%  

 

Global equity markets sold off, as we anticipated. Japan’s Nikkei led with a 6.2% decline, and more than half was registered just before the weekend. Many of the major European bourses were off around 3%. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was off about 3.3% to five week lows.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ lost about two-thirds as much as Europe. Core bond yields fell, led by a 13 bp decline in the US and UK and 8 bp in German bunds. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece saw higher yields.

 

The euro’s resilience is remarkable. It broke above the 5-month 5-cent trading range ($1.33-$1.38) in response to the ECB’s decision not to adjust policy at the beginning of the month. However, as Draghi and other ECB officials hinted, the strength of the euro is becoming a more important factor in setting policy because it heightens the risk of deflation and acts as a headwind against growth.

 

The euro’s strength comes amid heighten tensions with Russia over its actions in Crimea, which are seen as the highest since the end of the Cold War.  Europe and the US are preparing additional sanctions early next week, and there is fear Russia may enter into eastern Ukraine as part of its response.  

 

Technically, the euro continues to bump along the top of its Bollinger Band (~$1.3930), set 2 standard deviations above the 20-day moving average. Neither the RSI nor MACDs indicates that a top is in place. A move above $1.40 is likely to trigger buy stops. On the downside, the euro has built a shelf in the $1.3830-40 area, but it will take a break of $1.38 to signify anything important.

 

The dollar weakened against the yen every day last week for the first time in ten months.  A break of JPY101.20 would send the greenback to the year’s low set in early February near JPY100.75 and possibly to JPY100.20, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the rally from last October’s dip below JPY97 to the early January high near JPY105.45.

 

Sterling has under-performed.  It lost ground against most of the major currencies, in recent days. The five-day average crossed below the 20-day average in the middle of last week for the first time in a month. However, there is a lack of momentum even sterling fell below support near $1.6600. A push higher may run into offers in the $1.6685-$1.6700 band. On the downside, a close below $1.6570 maybe helped, but it will take a move below $1.6530 to signal a move toward $1.6400.

 

We had expected the Australian dollar to be one of the worst performers this past week, and it did sell-off in the first three sessions from about $0.9070 to roughly $0.8925. However, with the help of strong employment report, even if skewed by a methodological adjusted, which follows a large trade surplus and a strong retail sales report, the Aussie staged a rebound. The pendulum of market sentiment has swung away from a rate cut and toward a hike.

 

The weekly close above $0.9000 puts it in a reasonable technical position to move higher, though the indicators we look at are not generating strong signals. The initial upside target is just above $0.9100, last week’s high and then $0.9140, the high from the previous week. While a move below $0.9000 would weaken the tone, it may require a break of $0.8925-50 to raise confidence that a new leg down has begun.

 

The US dollar appears to be carving out a wedge or triangle pattern against the Canadian dollar. The bottom of it comes in near CAD1.0960 and rising. The top comes in near CAD1.1150 and falling. The technical signals are not strong as the Canadian dollar has been moving within the range established with the February 19 low ahead of CAD1.19 and the February 21 high near CAD1.12. The low implied volatility recognizes this.

 

The dollar is on the verge of breaking down through the bottom end of its recent range against the Mexican peso, which comes in near MXN13.20.  It has not sustained a break below since it moved above that level in mid-January.  The fact that it has been moving broadly sideways is illustrated by the convergence at MXN13.25-MXN13.26 of the 5, 20, and 50 day moving averages.   There doesn’t appear to be an attractive short-term opportunity at the moment. 

 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the CME currency futures:

 

1.  As was the case during the previous reporting period, there was only one gross speculative position adjustment of more than 10k contracts.  Then it was about long euro positions being increased.  This time it is the yen.  Short yen positions rose 15k to 115.1k contracts. This is a two-month high.  The yen strengthened after the reporting period and while some talked about it as safe haven buying, we suspect it was more about short-covering.

 

2.  During the previous reporting period, outside of the euro, no other gross positions were adjust by more than 6k contracts.  In the most recent reporting period, there were five gross adjustments more than 6k contracts.  The euro longs added 6.2k contracts to 110k, while shorts cut 6.7k contracts to 73.7k.  Long sterling positions were reduced by 6.5k contracts to 64.6k.  The short Canadian dollar position was pared by 7k contracts to 77.4k.  There were 8k short Mexican peso futures contracts were covered, leaving 21k contracts.  

 

3. The 110k gross long euro contracts is the highest since last October when they reached about 137k contracts.  This in turn was about 10k contracts below the record set in May 2007.  

 

4.  Looking at net positions, the euro and Swiss franc long positions were extended.  The short yen position grew.  The net short Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and Mexican peso positions were reduced, while the net long sterling position was cut.  


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1oWOAa1 Marc To Market

No, Millions of Americans Have NOT Dropped Out of the Labor Force Just Because They’re Retiring Baby Boomers

Zero Hedge notes that the number of Americans in the labor force has dropped to 1978 levels:

The civilian labor force … dropped from 155.3 million to 154.9 million, which means the labor participation rate just dropped to a fresh 35 year low, hitting levels not seen since 1978, at 62.8% down from 63.0%.

 

 

And the piece de resistance: Americans not in the labor force exploded higher by 535,000 to a new all time high 91.8 million.

Charles Hugh Smith shows the disturbing trend line:

The mainstream media portrays the cause of this crash as simply being retiring baby boomers, as shown by the following screenshots from a Google search:

But a February 26 report from the nonpartisan Economic Policy Institute shows this is false:

Since the start of the Great Recession over six years ago, labor force participation has dropped significantly. Most of the drop—roughly three-quarters—was due to the lack of job opportunities in the Great Recession and its aftermath.   There are now 5.8 million workers who are not in the labor force but who would be if job opportunities were strong.

 

***

 

More than 70 percent of the 5.8 million missing workers are under age 55. These missing workers under age 55—4.2 million of them—are extremely unlikely to have retired and are therefore likely to enter or reenter the labor force when job opportunities substantially improve.

 

***

The Washington Post noted in January:

The participation rate for workers between ages 25 and 54 fell sharply during the recession and still hasn’t recovered.

 

Obviously, retirements can’t explain this:

Credit: Calculated RiskCredit: Calculated Risk

So, what’s going on? One theory is that the weak job market is causing people to simply give up looking for work — they’re crumpling up their résumés and going home. An recent study from the Boston Fed suggested that these “non-inevitable dropouts” might even account for most of the decrease. Among other things, the authors noted that the labor-force decline has been far sharper for all age groups than simple demographics would predict.

 

***

 

So, why does the size of the labor force matter? If people are leaving the labor force for economic reasons (and they’re not going back to school), it would mean that the economy is in much worse shape than the official unemployment rate suggests. The jobless rate is officially 6.7 percent, but that only counts people who are actively seeking work — not labor-force dropouts. [Remember, you have to include labor-force dropouts in order to arrive at a useful unemployment number.]

In other words, the conventional explanation holds no water.

Despite all happy talk to the contrary, we have a “jobless recovery” – a permanent destruction of jobs – which is a redistribution of wealth from the little guy to the big boys. (And see this.)

No wonder Americans aren’t feeling the love.

And everything the government has been doing since 2008 has made unemployment much worse. And  here and here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1m5PZ0Q George Washington

Blackstone’s Home Buying Binge Drops 70% From Its Peak Last Year

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The whole story about how private equity firms and hedge funds have steamrolled into the residential home market to become this decade’s slumlords is a story covered on this blog before mainstream media even knew it was happening. I first identified the trend in January of last year in one of my most popular posts of 2013: America Meet Your New Slumlord: Wall Street.

Since the, I’ve done my best to cover the various twists and turns in this fascinating and disturbing saga. Some of my follow up pieces can be read below:

March 2013: Is the “Buy to Rent” Party Over?
May 2013: Carrington Bails: More Smart Money Leaves the “Buy to Rent” Game
July 2013: The Las Vegas Housing Market has Gone Full Chinese
August 2013: Welcome to the Housing Recovery: Rents are Rising, Incomes are Falling
October 2013: A Closer Look at the Decrepit World of Wall Street Rental Homes
February 2014: Is “Buy to Rent” Dead? – Rents on Blackstone Housing Bonds Plunge 7.6%

With all that in mind, let’s now take a look at the latest article from Bloomberg, which points out that Blackstone’s home purchases have plunged 70% from their peak last year. Perhaps they overestimated the rental cash flow potential of indebted youth living in their parents’ basements?

From Bloomberg:

Blackstone Group LP is slowing its purchases of houses to rent amid soaring prices after a buying binge made it the biggest U.S. single-family home landlord.

 

Blackstone’s acquisition pace has declined 70 percent from its peak last year, when the private equity firm was spending more than $100 million a week on properties, said Jonathan Gray, global head of real estate for the New York-based firm. After investing $8 billion since April 2012 to buy 43,000 homes in 14 cities, the company has narrowed most of its purchasing to Seattle, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando and Tampa.

 

President Barack Obama credited the investors for helping put a floor under the plunging housing market and consumer advocates such as the National Community Reinvestment Coalition later blamed them for soaring prices in some cities.

 

While institutional purchases nationwide fell to a 22-month low in January, corporate investors were more active in the Atlanta region, buying 25 percent of homes sold, according to data firm RealtyTrac. That helped drive up Atlanta prices 37 percent since the March 2012 trough.

Now read this fantastic article from real estate analyst Mark Hanson, who points out that homes are much less affordable now that they were at the peak of the most recent housing bubble.

Never fear serfs, now that homes have once again become unaffordable, the banks are bringing back subrpime loans so that Blackstone can sell back to the muppets.

Ah, crony capitalism at its finest.

Full article here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1m5yu0K Tyler Durden

19 Signs That The U.S. Consumer Is Tapped Out

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

You can't get blood out of a rock.  Traditionally the United States has had a consumer-driven economy, but now years of declining incomes and rising debts are really starting to catch up with us.  In order to have an economy that is dependent on consumer spending, you need to have a large middle class.  Unfortunately, the U.S. middle class is steadily shrinking, and unless that trend is reversed we are going to see massive economic changes in this country. 

For example, in poor neighborhoods all over America we are seeing bank branches, car dealerships and retail stores close down at an alarming rate.  If you didn't know better, you might be tempted to think that "Space Available" was the hottest new retailer in some areas of the nation.  On the other hand, if you live in San Francisco, New York City or Washington D.C., things are pretty good for the moment.  But as a whole, the condition of the U.S. consumer continues to decline.  Incomes are going down, the cost of living is going up, and debts are skyrocketing.  The following are 19 signs that the U.S. consumer is tapped out…

#1 Real disposable income per capita continues to fall.  In the fourth quarter of 2012, it was sitting at $37,265.  By the time that the fourth quarter of 2013 had come around, it had dropped to $36,941.  That means that average Americans have less money to go shopping with than they did previously.

#2 In January, real disposable income in the U.S. experienced the largest year over year decline that we have seen since 1974.

#3 As disposable income decreases, major retailers are closing thousands of stores all over the country.  Some are even calling this "a retail apocalypse".

#4 From September 2013 to January 2014, the personal saving rate in the United States dropped by a staggering 16 percent.

#5 During the fourth quarter of 2013, we witnessed the largest increase in consumer debt in this country that we have seen since 2007.

#6 Fewer Americans are applying for mortgages these days.  In fact, the MBA Purchase Applications Index is now the lowest that it has been since 1995.

#7 Overall, the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.

#8 Many Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to afford a new car or truck.  The following comes from a recent CNBC article

A new study shows the average household in 24 of America's 25 largest metropolitan areas cannot afford to pay for the average priced new car or truck.

"Just because you can manage the monthly payment doesn't mean you should let a $30,000 or $40,000 ride gobble up such a huge share of your paycheck," said Mike Sante, managing editor of Interest.com. "Many people are spending money on a car payment that they could be saving."

#9 Incredibly, 56 percent of all Americans now have "subprime credit" at this point.

#10 Total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#11 In the third quarter of 2007, the student loan delinquency rate was 7.6 percent.  Today, it is up to 11.5 percent.

#12 Overall, U.S. consumers are $11,360,000,000,000 in debt.

#13 While Barack Obama has been in the White House, median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row.

#14 U.S. workers are taking home the smallest share of the income pie that has ever been recorded.

#15 One recent study found that about 60 percent of the jobs that have been "created" since the end of the last recession pay $13.83 or less an hour.

#16 Middle-wage jobs accounted for 60 percent of the jobs lost during the last recession, but they have accounted for only 22 percent of the jobs created since then.

#17 According to one recent survey, only 35 percent of all Americans say that they are better off financially than they were a year ago.

#18 In 2008, 25 percent of all Americans in the 18 to 29-year-old age bracket considered themselves to be "lower class".  In 2014, an astounding 49 percent of them do.

#19 The poverty rate in America has been at 15 percent or above for 3 consecutive years.  That is the first time that has happened since 1965.

Despite what the mainstream media keeps telling them, most Americans know on a gut level that there is something fundamentally wrong with our economy.

According to Gallup, "Unemployment/Jobs" is the number one issue that Americans care about these days and the "Economy in general" is the number three issue that Americans care about these days.

Most people just want to work hard, make a decent living and take care of their families.

Sadly, that is becoming increasingly difficult to do.

And the numbers that I have shared above only tell part of the story.  For a more personal side to all of this, I encourage you to read my previous article entitled "10 Stories From The Cold, Hard Streets Of America That Will Break Your Heart" if you have not done so already.

The really bad news is that this is about as good as things are going to get for the U.S. economy.  The long-term trends that are eating away at our economy like cancer are intensifying, and our "leaders" just continue to act as if "business as usual" will somehow get the job done.

Most of them don't even realize that time is running out.

As I discussed yesterday, there is a lot of evidence that the massive financial bubble that the Federal Reserve has inflated is getting ready to burst.

When the next great financial crisis does strike, it is going to be absolutely disastrous.  We are in far worse financial shape than we were back then, and this next round of financial trauma could truly be the "knockout blow" for the U.S. economy.

Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.


    

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1o4cW2Y Tyler Durden

The Russians Have Already Quietly Pulled Their Money From The West

Earlier today we reported that according to weekly Fed data, a record amount – some $105 billion – in Treasurys had been sold or simply reallocated (which for political reasons is the same thing) from the Fed’s custody accounts, bringing the total amount of US paper held at the Fed to a level not seen since December 2012. While China was one of the culprits suggested to have withdrawn the near USD-equivalent paper, a far likelier candidate was Russia, which as is well-known, has had a modest falling out with the West in general, and its financial system in particular. Turns out what Russian official institutions may have done with their Treasurys (and we won’t know for sure until June), it was merely the beginning. In fact, as the FT reports, in silent and not so silent preparations for what will be near-certain financial sanctions (which would include account freezes and asset confiscations following this Sunday’s Crimean referendum) the snealy Russians, read oligarchs, have already pulled billions from banks in the west thereby essentially making the biggest western gambit – that of going after the wealth of Russia’s 0.0001% – moot.

From the FT:

Russian companies are pulling billions out of western banks, fearful that any US sanctions over the Crimean crisis could lead to an asset freeze, according to bankers in Moscow.

 

Sberbank and VTB, Russia’s giant partly state-owned banks, as well as industrial companies, such as energy group Lukoil, are among those repatriating cash from western lenders with operations in the US. VTB has also cancelled a planned US investor summit next month, according to bankers.

 

The flight comes as last-ditch diplomatic talks between Russia’s foreign minister and the US secretary of state to resolve the tensions in Ukraine ended without an agreement.

 

Markets were nervous before Sunday’s Crimea referendum on secession from Ukraine. Traders and businesspeople fear this could spark western sanctions against Russia as early as Monday.

It probably will. What it will also do is force Russia to engage China far more actively in bilateral trade and ultimately to transact using either Rubles or Renminbi, and bypass the dollar. Perhaps even using gold, something which the price of the yellow metal sniffed out this week, pushing itself to 6 month highs. It will also make financial ties between the two commodity-rich nations even closer, while further alienating that imperialist devil, the US.

Of course, the west thinking like the west, and assuming that all that matters to Russia is the closing level of the Micex, believes that a sufficient plunge in Russian stocks would have been enough to deter Putin. After all, the only thing everyone in the US cares about is if the S&P 500 closed at yet another all time high, right?

What the west didn’t realize, as we predicted a month ago, for Putin it is orders of magnitude more important to have the price of commodities, primarily crude and gas, high than seeing the illusion of paper wealth, aka stocks, hitting all time highs. Especially since in Russia an even smaller portion of the population cares about the daily fluctuations of the stock market. As for the oligarchs, if there is someone who will be delighted to see their power, wealth and influence impacted adversely, if only for a short period of time, it is Vladimir Vladimirovich himself, whom the west misjudged massively once more.

Perhaps not surprisingly, while Russians were pulling their money from the west, western firms were getting out of Dodgeski.

One senior Moscow banker said 90 per cent of investors were already behaving as if sanctions were in place, adding that this was “prudent exposure management”.

 

These moves represent the flipside of the more obvious withdrawal of western money from Russian markets that has been evident over the past fortnight.

 

Traders and bankers said US banks had been particularly heavy sellers of Russian bonds. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, US banks and asset managers between them have about $75bn of exposure to Russia.

 

Joseph Dayan, head of markets at BCS, one of Russia’s largest brokers said: “It’s been quite an ugly picture in Russian bonds the last few days and some of it has to do with international banks reducing exposure.”

 

Although foreign banks have not yet begun cutting credit to Russian companies en masse, bankers said half a dozen live deals to fund some of Russia’s biggest companies were in limbo as lenders waited to see how punitive western sanctions would be.

So the bottom line is that Russia, thinking a few steps ahead, already has withdrawn the bulk of its assets from the West, and why not. Recall that a year ago it was revealed that the same Russians who were supposed to be punished in Cyprus had mostly withdrawn their funds in advance of the bail in: they tend to know what is coming.

We wonder how true is the flipside: just how prepared is the west, and especially Europe, to exist in a world in which a third of Germany’s gas is suddenly cut off? We can’t wait to find out early next week.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nqQtAa Tyler Durden

Distorted Markets & Disillusionment One Asset At A Time

Thanks to the repression of the world's central banks, investors have exited cash and piled into "everything else," but while this is no surprise to most, Citi's Matt King warns of the possibility of an "entrance with no exit" as investors reach for yield has distorted primary and secondary markets, forced risk-averse investors into alternative asset classes, distorted markets beyond any fundamentals, and left markets incredibly illiquid. This, he concludes, sets up a problem that we are already seeing as investors are disillusioned one asset at a time

Via Citi's Matt King

Out of Cash and into everything else… investors have been reaching for yield…

With Emerging Markets the most popular destinations… (which could be a problem as it is very crowded still)

But broad investment grade credit markets have exploded as demand beget supply and firms have doubled their outstanding debt

which fits perfectly withgout recent dream-crushing discussion of the rise in cash on corporate balance sheets
 

 
 

US companies are carrying far more net debt than in 2007

 

Another curiosity is this notion that US companies have substantially reduced their debt pile and are therefore cash rich. The latter is indeed true. Cash and equivalents are at historically high levels, but rarely do those who mention the mountains of corporate cash also discuss the massive increase in debt seen over the last couple of years.


 

In fact, debt levels have been growing to such an extent that net debt (i.e. excluding the massive cash pile) is 15% higher than it was prior to the financial crisis.

Too much money chasing too few assets… (not just increased demand but reduced supply)

Which has left credit amrkets totally distrorted…as Fundamentals are no longer the driver

and equity markets…

Bu, it would appear, that investors are losing faith…

 

 

The big question is – who's next?


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hkz8kW Tyler Durden

Fourth Turning: The People Vs. Big Brother

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” 

– Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

 

“In the need to develop a capacity to know what potential enemies are doing, the United States government has perfected a technological capability that enables us to monitor the messages that go through the air. Now, that is necessary and important to the United States as we look abroad at enemies or potential enemies. We must know, at the same time, that capability at any time could be turned around on the American people, and no American would have any privacy left such is the capability to monitor everything—telephone conversations, telegrams, it doesn’t matter. There would be no place to hide.

If this government ever became a tyrant, if a dictator ever took charge in this country, the technological capacity that the intelligence community has given the government could enable it to impose total tyranny, and there would be no way to fight back because the most careful effort to combine together in resistance to the government, no matter how privately it was done, is within the reach of the government to know. Such is the capability of this technology.

I don’t want to see this country ever go across the bridge. I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we must see to it that this agency and all agencies that possess this technology operate within the law and under proper supervision so that we never cross over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return.”Frank Church on Meet the Press regarding the NSA – 1975

Ever since Edward Snowden burst onto the worldwide stage in June 2013, I’ve been wondering how he fits into the fabric of this ongoing Fourth Turning. This period of Crisis that arrives like clockwork, 60 to 70 years after the end of the previous Fourth Turning (Civil War – 66 years after American Revolution, Great Depression/World War II – 64 years after Civil War, Global Financial Crisis – 62 years after World War II), arrived in September 2008 with the Federal Reserve created collapse of the global financial system. We are now five and a half years into this Fourth Turning, with its climax not likely until the late-2020’s. At this point in previous Fourth Turnings a regeneracy had unified sides in their cause and a grey champion or champions (Ben Franklin/Samuel Adams, Lincoln/Davis, FDR) had stepped forward to lead. Thus far, no one from the Prophet generation has been able to unify the nation and create a sense of common civic purpose. Societal trust continues to implode, as faith in political, financial, corporate, and religious institutions spirals downward. There is no sign of a unifying regeneracy on the horizon.

The core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to propel this Crisis: debt, civic decay, global disorder. Central bankers, politicians, and government bureaucrats have been able to fashion the illusion of recovery and return to normalcy, but their “solutions” are nothing more than smoke and mirrors exacerbating the next bloodier violent stage of this Fourth Turning. The emergencies will become increasingly dire, triggering unforeseen reactions and unintended consequences. The civic fabric of our society will be torn asunder.    

In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

Debt

The core crisis element of debt is far worse than it was at the outset of this Crisis in September 2008. The National Debt has risen from $9.7 trillion to $17.5 trillion, an 80% increase in five and half years. It took 215 years for the country to accumulate as much debt as it has accumulated since the start of this Crisis. We continue to add $2.8 billion a day to the National debt, and the president declares it is time for this austerity to end. The total unfunded liabilities of the Federal government for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government pensions and now Obamacare exceeds $200 trillion and is mathematically impossible to honor. Corporate debt stands at an all-time high. Margin debt is at record levels, as faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability to levitate the stock market borders on delusional. Consumer debt has reached new heights, as the government doles out subprime auto loans to deadbeats and subprime student loans to future University of Phoenix Einsteins. Global debt has surged by 40% since 2008 to over $100 trillion, as central bankers have attempted to cure a disease caused by debt with more debt.

All of this debt accumulation is compliments of Bernanke/Yellen and the Federal Reserve, who have produced this new debt bubble with their zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing that has driven their balance sheet from $935 billion of mostly Treasury bonds in September 2008 to $4.2 trillion of toxic mortgage garbage acquired from their owners – the insolvent Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks. This entire house of cards is reliant upon permanently low interest rates, the faith of foreigners in our lies, and trust in Ivy League educated economists captured by Wall Street. This debt laden house of cards sits atop hundreds of trillions of derivatives of mass destruction used by the Wall Street casinos to generate “riskless” profits. When, not if, a trigger ignites this explosive concoction of debt, the collapse will be epic and the violent phase of this Fourth Turning will commence.

Civic Decay

The core crisis element of civic decay is evident everywhere you turn. Our failed public educational system is responsible for much of the civic decay, as a highly educated critical thinking populace is our only defense against a small cabal of bankers and billionaires acquiring unwarranted influence and control over our country. Our children have been taught how to feel and to believe government propaganda. The atrocious educational system is not a mistake. It has been designed and manipulated by your owners to produce the results they desire, as explained bluntly by George Carlin.

“There’s a reason that education sucks, and it’s the same reason it will never ever ever be fixed. It’s never going to get any better, don’t look for it. Be happy with what you’ve got. Because the owners of this country don’t want that. I’m talking about the real owners now, the big, wealthy, business interests that control all things and make the big decisions. They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want; they want more for themselves and less for everybody else. But I’ll tell you what they don’t want—they don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest.”

The urban ghettos become more dangerous and uninhabitable by the day. The inner cities are crumbling under the weight of welfare spending and declining tax revenues. The very welfare policies begun fifty years ago to alleviate poverty have hopelessly enslaved the poor and ignorant in permanent squalor and destitution. The four decade old drug war has done nothing to reduce the use of drugs. It has benefited the corporate prison industry, as millions have been thrown into prison for minor drug offenses. Meanwhile, millions more have been legally addicted to drugs peddled by the corporate healthcare complex. The culture warriors and advocates of new rights for every special interest group continue their never ending battles which receive an inordinate amount of publicity from the corporate media. Class warfare is simmering and being inflamed by politicians pushing their particular agendas. Violence provoked by race and religion is growing by the day. The fault lines are visible and the imminent financial earthquake will push distress levels beyond the breaking point. Once the EBT cards stop working, all hell will break loose. Three days of panic will empty grocery store shelves and the National Guard will be called out to try and restore control.  

Global Disorder

The core crisis element of global disorder is evident everywhere you turn. The false flag revolution in the Ukraine, initiated by the U.S. and EU in order to blunt Russia’s control of natural gas to Europe, has the potential to erupt into a full blown shooting war at any moment. The attempt by Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S. to overthrow the Syrian dictator in order to run a natural gas pipeline across their land into Europe was blunted by Russia. Iraq is roiled in a civil war, after the U.S. invaded, occupied and destabilized the country. After 12 years of occupation, Afghanistan is more dysfunctional and dangerous than it was before the U.S. saved them from the evil Taliban. Unrest, violent protests, and brutal measures by rulers continue in Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, Venezuela, Bahrain, Brazil, and throughout Africa. American predator drones roam the skies of the world murdering suspected terrorists. The European Union is insolvent, with Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal propped up with newly created debt. Austerity for the people and prosperity for the bankers is creating tremendous distress and tension across the continent. A global volcanic eruption is in the offing.

It is clear to me the American Empire is in terminal decline. Hubris, delusion, corruption, foolish disregard for future generations and endless foreign follies have set in motion a chain of events that will lead to a cascading sequence of debt defaults, mass poverty, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation or deflation, depending on the actions of feckless bankers and politicians. There is no avoiding the tragic outcome brought on by decades of bad choices and a century of allowing private banking interests to control our currency. The “emergency” QE and ZIRP responses by the Federal Reserve to the Federal Reserve created 2008 financial collapse continue, even though the propaganda peddled by the Deep State tries to convince the public we have fully recovered. This grand fraud cannot go on forever. Ponzi schemes no longer work once you run out of dupes. With societal trust levels approaching all-time lows and foreign countries beginning to understand they are the dupes, another global financial crisis is a lock.

The Snowden Factor

With ten to fifteen years likely remaining in this Fourth Turning Crisis, people familiar with generational turnings can’t help but ponder what will happen next. Linear thinkers, who constitute the majority, mistakenly believe things will magically return to normal and we’ll continue our never ending forward human progress. Their ignorance of history and generational turnings that recur like the four seasons will bite them in the ass. We are being flung forward across the vast chaos of time and our existing social order will be transformed beyond recognition into something far better or far worse. The actual events over the coming decade are unknowable in advance, but the mood and reactions of the generational archetypes to these events are predictable. The actions of individuals will matter during this Fourth Turning. The majority are trapped in their propaganda induced, techno distracted stupor of willful ignorance. It will take a minority of liberty minded individuals, who honor the principles of the U.S. Constitution and are willing to sacrifice their lives, to prevail in the coming struggle.

Despite fog engulfing the path of future events, we know they will be propelled by debt, civic decay, and global disorder. Finding a unifying grey champion figure seems unlikely at this point. I believe the revelations by Edward Snowden have set the course for future events during this Fourth Turning. The choices of private citizens, like Snowden, Assange, and Manning, have made a difference. The choices we all make over the next ten years will make a difference. A battle for the soul of this country is underway. The Deep State is firmly ingrained, controlling the financial, political and educational systems, while using their vast wealth to perpetuate endless war, and domination of the media to manipulate the masses with propaganda and triviality. They are powerful and malevolent. They will not relinquish their supremacy and wealth willingly.

Snowden has revealed the evil intent of the ruling class and their willingness to trash the Constitution in their psychopathic pursuit of mammon. The mass surveillance of the entire population, locking down of an entire city in pursuit of two teenagers, military training exercises in major metropolitan areas, militarization of local police forces by DHS, crushing peaceful demonstrations with brute force, attempting to restrict and confiscate guns, molesting innocent airline passengers, executive orders utilized on a regular basis by the president, and treating all citizens like suspects has set the stage for the coming conflict. Strauss & Howe warned that history has shown armed conflict is always a major ingredient during a Fourth Turning.

“History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.” The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997

It appears to me the Deep State is preparing for armed conflict with the people. Why else would they be utilizing Big Brother methods of surveillance, militarization of police forces  and Gestapo like tactics of intimidation to control the masses? This doesn’t happen in a democratic republic where private individuals are supposed to know everything done by public government servants, not vice versa. They know the cheap, easy to access energy resources are essentially depleted. They know the system they have built upon a foundation of cheap energy and cheap debt is unsustainable and will crash in the near future. They know their fiat currency scheme is failing.They know it is going to come crashing down.

They know America and the world will plunge into an era of depression, violence, and war. They also know they want to retain their wealth, power and control. There is no possibility the existing establishment can be purged through the ballot box. It’s a one party Big Brother system that provides the illusion of choice to the Proles. Like it or not, the only way this country can cast off the shackles of the banking, corporate, fascist elites, and the government surveillance state is through an armed revolution. The alternative is to allow an authoritarian regime, on par with Hitler, Stalin and Mao, to rise from the ashes of our financial collapse. This is a distinct possibility, given the ignorance and helplessness of most Americans after decades of government education and propaganda.       

The average mentally asleep American cannot conceive of armed conflict within the borders of the U.S. War, violence and dead bodies are something they see on their 52 inch HDTVs while gobbling chicken wings and cheetos in their Barcalounger. We’ve allowed a banking cartel and their central bank puppets to warp and deform our financial system into a hideous façade, sold to the masses as free market capitalism. We’ve allowed corporate interests to capture our political system through bribery and corruption.

We’ve allowed the rise of a surveillance state that has stripped us of our privacy, freedom, liberty and individuality in a futile pursuit of safety and security. We’ve allowed a military industrial complex to exercise undue influence in Washington DC, leading to endless undeclared wars designed to enrich the arms makers. We’ve allowed the corporate media and the government education complex to use propaganda, misinformation and social engineering techniques to dumb down the masses and make them compliant consumers. These delusions will be shattered when our financial and economic system no longer functions. The end is approaching rapidly and very few see it coming.

Glory or Ruin?

The scenario I envision is a collapse of our debt saturated financial system, with a domino effect of corporate, personal, and governmental defaults, exacerbated by the trillions of currency, interest rate, and stock derivatives. Global stock markets will crash. Trillions in paper wealth will evaporate into thin air. The Greater Depression will gain a choke-hold around the world. Mass bankruptcies, unemployment and poverty will sweep across the land. The social safety net will tear under the weight of un-payable entitlements. Riots and unrest will breakout in urban areas. Armed citizens in rural areas will begin to assemble in small units. The police and National Guard will be unable to regain control. The military will be called on to suppress any and all resistance to the Federal government. This act of war will spur further resistance from liberty minded armed patriots. The new American Revolution will have begun. Leaders will arise in the name of freedom. Regional and local bands of fighters will use guerilla tactics to defeat a slow top heavy military dependent upon technology and vast quantities of oil. A dictatorial regime may assume power on a Federal level. A breakup of the nation into regional states is a distinct possibility.

With the American Empire crumbling from within, our international influence will wane. With China also in the midst of a Fourth Turning, their debt bubble will burst and social unrest will explode into civil war. Global disorder, wars, terrorism, and financial collapse will lead to a dramatic decrease in oil production, further sinking the world into depression. The tensions caused by worldwide recession will lead to the rise of authoritarian regimes and global warfare. With “advances” in technological warfare and the proliferation of nuclear warheads, this scenario has the potential to end life on earth as we know it. The modern world could be set back into the stone-age with the push of a button. There are no guarantees of a happy ending for humanity.

The outcome of this Fourth Turning is dependent upon the actions of a minority of critical thinking Americans who decide to act. No one can avoid the trials and tribulations that lie ahead. We will be faced with immense challenges. Courage and sacrifice will be required in large doses. Elders will need to lead and millennials will need to carry a heavy load, doing most of the dying. The very survival of our society hangs in the balance. Edward Snowden has provided an example of the sacrifice required during this Fourth Turning. How we respond and the choices we make over the next decade will determine whether this Fourth Turning will result in glory or ruin for our nation.

“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Click these links to read the first two parts of this three part series:

Do No Evil Google – Censor & Snitch for the State

Google, China, the NSA and the Fourth Turning


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1o3F326 Tyler Durden

Gazprom Chairman Sold All His Shares Just Before Russia Invaded Crimea

We are sure it is just coincidence – and awkward combination of luck and suspicious timing – but Vedomosti reports that Viktor Zubkov, the Chairman of Russia’s massive energy monopoly Gazprom, dumped his entire stake in the company just a few weeks before Vladimir Putin crossed the red line. Gazprom shares have dropped 25% in the last 3 weeks so his timing was impeccible.

 

 

Via Vedomosti (Google Translate),

The Chairman of the Board of Directors “Gazprom” Viktor Zubkov has sold his stake in the company, it follows from the monopoly.

 

The change in share occurred February 11, 2014, the issuer learned about it on March 13.

 

Now Zubkov 0% stake in the company.

 

 

Thus, Zubkov sold his shares prior to the collapse of the Russian stock market on March 3.

It’s good to have friends running the country eh? Thank you Mr. Putin. This is important as so many Western watchers believe a crumbling Russia stock market will prompt Putin to back away… it appears his Oligrach friends already got the nod…


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cHcrds Tyler Durden

The World Is Screaming For A New Financial System

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

One of the key lessons we can take away from history is that the global financial system changes… frequently.

[12]

 

In ancient times, Roman coins were used across the region by Romans and non-Romans alike who engaged in trade and commerce.

Given how destructively successive Roman governments debased their coins, however, the reserve burden eventually fell to the Byzantine Empire, whose gold solidus coin became the dominant currency in world trade.

Over the centuries, this standard changed several more times. The Venetians, Florentines, Spanish, French, British, etc. each issued the world’s dominant currency at one point or another.

But the fundamentals of those currencies changed. Governments engaged in wanton debasement, mismanaged their economies, and accumulated massive debt levels. And eventually the world shifted to new currencies.

Since the end of World War II, the US dollar has been the dominant currency in the world.

And even though Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s convertability to gold and unilaterally abandoned the US government’s obligations under the Bretton Woods system back in 1971, the world has still clung to the dollar for the past 43-years.

But this is changing rapidly.

The Chinese, which have their own economic issues to deal with, are starting to dump Treasuries in record numbers.

Central banks are buying up more gold. Foreign countries are entering into bilateral currency swap arrangements with one another. And world governments are starting to (rather embarrassingly) demand that the US get its budget and fiscal house in order.

Most tellingly, though, member nations of the International Monetary Fund are starting to revolt.

As one of the major organizations spawned from the post-war financial structure, the IMF’s original goal was to ensure the smooth development of a new global financial system.

Over 180 countries have since become members of the IMF. But the organization runs on a quota system, with each member nation having a certain percentage of the IMF’s overall votes.

The US, for example, has the most power by far with a 16.75% share of the vote. Japan is a distant second with a 6.23% share.

This puts the US in the driver’s seat. And it’s been that way for decades.

But most of the other 180+ nations have had enough. And they’re pushing the United States to massively overhaul the current quota system.

Even typical allies are breaking ranks. Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey recently told reporters at a financial conference that they will “actively lobby” the US to reform the IMF quota issues, and that “Congress must understand that it is in the interest of the US to reform the IMF. . .”

India. China. Just about everyone imaginable is pushing for major IMF reform. Everyone except the Land of the Free. The US government seems to like things the way they are. And Congress has been very intransigent in adopting any planned reforms.

These people have their heads buried in the sand so deep that they can’t even hear the rest of the world SCREAMING for a new financial system.

This is going to happen, whether the US wants it to or not.

And while no foreign government wants a collapse of the dollar, they do very much want an orderly rebalancing of the financial system. This is already under way.

The US government may pretend that everything is fine and dandy. But given the overwhelming objective evidence out there, folks who aren’t on board with this major trend are ignoring it at their own peril.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gkhqvu Tyler Durden