The Worst Law Most Americans Have Never Heard Of

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

The government has criminalized so many mundane activities that the average American unknowingly commits three felonies a day. That’s according to a study by Harry Silverglate, a civil liberties lawyer.

This happens, in part, because there are plenty of awful laws most Americans have never even heard of. One of the worst of these little-known laws is the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA).

FATCA is a U.S. law that forces every financial institution in the world to give the IRS information about its American clients.

Complying with FATCA is a huge financial and administrative burden, measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s a paper shufflers dream come true.

This is why the vast majority of banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions outside of the U.S. shun American clients. This, in turn, makes it much more difficult to move capital outside of the U.S.

Combined with other costly, extraterritorial U.S. regulations, FATCA amounts to de facto capital controls.

FATCA also highlights something important. As history has shown, a government’s destructive measures usually follow a certain progression. The steps it takes as it becomes increasingly desperate are detailed in the graphic below.

FATCA helps reveal how far along the U.S. is at the moment.

This is the general pattern nations follow as their fiscal situations deteriorate. Understanding it can help you take practical steps to protect yourself.

1. Fiscal health of the country is in trouble. This is apparent when, even by the government's own phony official statistics, the country is in serious trouble. However, the government will still distract the masses with "bread and circuses," reassuring them that everything is fine.

 

2. Increasing regulations, inflation, taxes, and police state measures. The sheer amount of current and future U.S. government spending, coupled with disinterest in making any meaningful cuts, means that higher taxes and inflation are a mathematical certainty.

 

Thanks to a veritable mountain of rules, laws, regulations, and the ramping up of the War on Cash, the government can already essentially track and control every penny you earn, save, and spend.

 

Last, and most terrifying, are the near daily stories and YouTube videos illustrating a metastasizing police state.

 

3. Capital controls. Think of the government as a thief trying to steal your wallet as you (understandably) try to run away. With capital controls, the thief is trying to block all the exits so you can’t reach safe ground.

 

A government only uses capital controls when it’s desperate… when it can no longer borrow, inflate the currency, tax, or steal money in one of the “normal” ways.

 

In most cases, governments use capital controls in severe crises. Think financial and banking collapses, wars, or chronic economic problems. In other cases, they’re just a way to control people. It’s much more difficult to leave a country when you can’t take your money with you.

 

Regardless of the initial catalyst, capital controls help a government trap money within its borders. This way, it has more money to confiscate.

 

4. Broad wealth confiscation measures. After capital controls, governments often use a wide range of tactics to confiscate wealth. No matter the method, or what they call it, the net effect is always the same: The government grabs as much capital as it can.

 

These tactics might include official currency devaluation, an attack on precious metals (windfall profits tax, confiscation, nationalization), and government sanctioned theft of electronically held money, including bank and brokerage accounts (like the bail-in that happened in Cyprus a few years ago).

 

5. Nationalization of retirement savings. It's no secret that retirement accounts are a juicy target for any desperate government. The most common way to nationalize these accounts is to convert their assets into so-called "safer" government bonds. As with most government measures, this is sold as "for your own good."

 

We are already hearing whispers from the U.S. government about helping to "manage" retirement savings. This is code for converting retirement investments into U.S. treasuries.

 

6. Price and wage controls. It doesn't take a genius to see that price controls cause shortages—usually in food, energy, and basic necessities.

 

7. People controls. Restricting the movement of citizens is another tool in the desperate government's toolkit. Wealthy citizens are particularly worth trapping.

 

8. Wars to distract the populace. When all else fails, desperate governments tend to start conflicts to bolster blind nationalism and distract the populace from their failings. All governments treat their citizens like milk cows to varying degrees, but they start treating them like beef cows when they need soldiers for contrived wars.

 

9. Game over. Failed wars usually provide fertile soil for severe civil unrest, revolution, and the potential emergence of a strongman at the helm.

The good news for Americans is that there’s still time.

The U.S. has definitively reached stage 2. It hasn’t quite reached stage 3, full-blown capital controls… yet. But it’s not far off, since FATCA and other regulations essentially amount to de facto capital controls.

While you can still avoid getting boxed in, no one knows exactly how much time you have. Once a government implements official capital controls, your money is trapped, and things tend to unravel pretty quickly.

Developing a game plan now does not mean you have to immediately leave your home country. By opening a foreign bank or brokerage account remotely, it’s possible to achieve a certain level of political diversification without even leaving your living room.

This is the first step to immunizing yourself against the destructive measures a desperate government will eventually take. And it’s absolutely crucial.

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“We All Work As A Team” – Millennials Explain How It’s Going Living ‘Rent-Free’ At Home

With millennials now the largest generation in the United States, a look into their economic standing is warranted. Using New York City as a proxy, we learn that millennials are now making 20% less than the generation before them, and have incurred tens of billions in student loan debt. Faced with these facts, they are searching for ways to cut down on expenses in order to make ends meet, and one common sense way to do that is to move back in with mom and dad.

The Chicago Tribune helps us understand how all of that is working out. To start, more than 20 percent of millennials are living with their parents, even after obtaining a college degree. Even if some are fortunate to move out, often times they boomerang back to their parents' home by age 27.

As such, stories such as the one from 34 year old Meghan Kennihan are becoming the norm, even in today's economic "recovery".

"I had an apartment in Chicago," said Meghan Kennihan, 34, a running coach and personal trainer who lives in her folks' finished basement in La Grange. "It was tiny and expensive. I was miserable. I moved back. Now, I have a bedroom plus an area for my scrapbooking hobby and another for my exercise equipment. It's like having my own apartment except I have more space than I can afford to have in an apartment."

In order to move out on her own, Meghan cites the need for an employer who can help cover her health insurance, something all of these newly created waiter and bartender jobs aren't able to do.

"To be able to buy my own place, I would need to work for an employer that would cover insurance for me"

 

Not only is there more space, but the price is right. Millennials have been able to save on rent, and are just trying to chip in other ways around the house where possible, as 24 year old Dean Pearce explains.

"My parents have done so much for me, and now they're letting me live here rent-free, so I try to help out. I pick up my sister from school, do the dishes or whatever chore needs to be done. My mom makes dinner. We all work as a team."

As a matter of fact, the trend of kids living at home with their parents has gotten so strong that home builders are now designing homes with just that in mind. "One out of six buyers have or plan to have a grown child at home" said Richard Bridges, Chicago division sales manager at David Weekly Homes. For a mere $35,000-plus, Richard says the plan can include a bedroom/bathroom suite in a finished basement to accommodate the kids who inevitably will be returning home to live.

Chicago area builder PulteGroup says in their new models, kids can enjoy a bedroom/bathroom suite with a kitchenette and separate living space. "Our NexGen option is the greatest in housing since indoor plumbing." said Jeff Roos, western regional president at Lennar Corp.

In summary, it looks like things are going well for kids who are moving back home, all things considered. Rent is affordable, and now parents are even taking it upon themselves to buy houses that have the look and feel of one's own personal apartment for their children to return home to someday. It is safe to say that this is quickly becoming the new American Dream for current and future generations.

The likelihood of this trend reversing course any time soon? Not likely. As Lennar Corp's Jeff Roos points out:

"It could be a while before the millennial makes enough money to leave"

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Trump To Get More Primary Votes Than Anyone In History

According to the Washington Post, Donald Trump is poised to receive more votes than anyone in Republican primary history.

With a number of states remaining including California, Trump is set to surpass current record holder George W. Bush, who received 10.8 million votes in 2000.

 

Part of the reason for this is that more voters are turning out to vote.

Here is how The Donald has fared in each state thus far

 

If you're a Trump supporter, you'll explain this by saying he is motivating people to get involved, and if you're not, you'd say it's simply due to the population growth. The Post goes on to also point out that while Trump will likely set the record for most total votes, he'll probably end up with the lowest percentage of the overall total vote since 1968.

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Facebook Soars After Beating Sales, EPS: Reports 1.09 Billion Daily Users, Creates New Class Of Stock

If yesterday it was doom and gloom for tech stocks, then today it’s Facebook’s turn for soom upside down frown turning boom. Moments ago the social network reported another round of blowout results, as follows:

  • FACEBOOK 1Q REV. $5.38B, EST. $5.27B
  • FACEBOOK 1Q ADJ. EPS 77C, EST. 63C
  • FACEBOOK 1Q DAUS 1.09B, EST. 1.06B (2 EST.)
  • FACEBOOK 1Q MAUS 1.65B , EST. 1.62B

Some more details on the user growth:

  • Daily active users (DAUs) – DAUs were 1.09 billion on average for March 2016, an increase of 16% year-over-year.
  • Mobile DAUs – Mobile DAUs were 989 million on average for March 2016, an increase of 24% year-over-year.
  • Monthly active users (MAUs) – MAUs were 1.65 billion as of March 31, 2016, an increase of 15% year-over-year.
  • Mobile MAUs – Mobile MAUs were 1.51 billion as of March 31, 2016, an increase of 21% year-over-year.

And the financials:

  • Mobile advertising revenue – Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 82% of advertising revenue for the first quarter of 2016, up from 73% of advertising revenue in the first quarter of 2015.
  • Capital expenditures – Capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2016 were $1.13 billion.
  • Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities – Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities were $20.62 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2016.
  • Free cash flow – Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2016 was $1.85 billion.

Additionally, the company also announced that its board has approved a proposal to amend and restate our existing certificate of incorporation to create a new class of non-voting capital stock, known as the Class C capital stock.

As the company explains, “If the proposal is approved, we intend to issue two shares of Class C capital stock as a one-time stock dividend in respect of each outstanding share of our Class A and Class B common stock. This proposal is designed to create a capital structure that will, among other things, allow us to remain focused on Mr. Zuckerberg’s long-term vision for our company and encourage Mr. Zuckerberg to remain in an active leadership role at Facebook. The adoption of the proposal is subject to the approval of our stockholders at our 2016 Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on June 20, 2016, and the record date for the payment of the Class C stock dividend would be set by the board of directors at a later date. More information will be available on our Investor Relations site and in our forthcoming proxy statement to be filed today.”

Marc Zuckerberg added the following note to the earnings release:

Everything we do at Facebook is focused on our mission to make the world more open and connected.

 

To maintain our focus on this mission, we have always been a founder-led company. This structure has helped us resist the short term pressures that often hurt companies. It has helped us grow our community, build our business and create shareholder value. It has given us the freedom to prioritize your product experience and invest in new apps like Instagram — decisions that don’t always pay off right away, but that we believe help us serve our community and our shareholders.

 

When I look out at the future, I see more bold moves ahead of us than behind us. We’re focused not on what Facebook is today, but on what it can be, and what it needs to be for our community. That means investing in areas like spreading connectivity, building artificial intelligence and developing virtual and augmented reality. I am committed to our mission and to leading Facebook there over the long term.

 

While helping to connect the world will always be the most important thing I do, there are more global challenges that I feel a responsibility to help solve — like helping to cure all diseases by the end of this century, upgrading our education system so it’s personalized for each student, and protecting our environment from climate change. That’s why Priscilla and I created the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative and committed to give 99 percent of our Facebook shares during our lives to advance human potential and promote equality.

 

Today, Facebook’s board of directors is announcing a proposal to create a new class of stock that will allow us to achieve both goals. I’ll be able to keep founder control of Facebook so we can continue to build for the long term, and Priscilla and I will be able to give our money to fund important work sooner. Right now, there are amazing scientists, educators and doctors around the world doing incredible work. We want to help them make a bigger difference today, not 30 or 40 years down the road.

 

If this proposal goes into effect, we’ll get to keep improving your Facebook experience the way we do today. And over the long term, I think you’ll have better services and be part of a stronger community as a result. I believe in our community and the good we can do in the world, and I’m looking forward to continuing this journey with you.

The kneejerk reaction in the afterhours has been to send the stock just shy of all time highs and was trading up nearly 7%.

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Ted Cruz Announces Carly Fiorina As VP Running Mate: Live Feed

As we predicted during our preview of Ted Cruz’s “big announcement” earlier today, the republican presidential candidate, in hopes of kickstarting his mathematically impossible to win campaign, is set to announce that Carly Fiorina will be his vice presidential nominee if he’s the Republican Party’s pick for president according to Politico.

Fiorina, a former Hewlett-Packard CEO, has been among Cruz’s most loyal and active surrogates since she ended her own 2016 GOP presidential bid after a poor finish in New Hampshire in February. The Cruz campaign deliberated over whether to pick Fiorina for the last two weeks, according to one person familiar with the move. It has polled the potential ticket, examining it for its prospective strengths and weaknesses.

The announcement, which was teased early Wednesday morning and will be made official Wednesday afternoon in Indianapolis, comes the day after Cruz suffered a drubbing at the hands of Donald Trump in five northeastern primaries — losses that mathematically eliminated Cruz from getting the 1,237 delegates he’d need to clinch the GOP nomination.

Cruz’s hopes now rest in a contested convention this summer in Cleveland, where the Texas senator would hope to stop Trump on the first ballot and then win in subsequent rounds of voting thanks to support from the loyal delegates his campaign has assiduously courted.

The hope within the campaign is that Fiorina will help Cruz in California, which will award 172 delegates on June 7. Fiorina is scheduled to give the keynote address at this weekend’s California Republican Party convention, speaking hours after Cruz takes the stage.

Judging by online betting markets such as PredicIt, which has Trump with now record high odds of securing the nomination at 81%, the gamble is doomed to fail.

Watch his announcement live below.

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Fed-nado Trumps AAPLocalypse: Panic-Buying Spree Pushes S&P Back Over 2,100 (And Fails)

Are you not entertained??

 

Commodity Carnage continues in China…

 

Nothing happened before The Fed (apart from a chaotic dip and rip in crude oil and bid for bonds all morning)…and then it hit…

 

Getting the S&P 500 to 2,100 was all that mattered after The Fed – becase that tells the world that everything is awesome!!

 

Tough day for Nasdaq (as AAPL and TWTR were twatted) but the crushing of VIX lifting all boats saved the day… AAPL knocked 48 points of The Dow today

 

On the week, Small Caps were squeezed once again to the highs as Nasdaq remains the laggard

 

FANG stocks had a tough day even with the post-Fed pump and panic buying effort to lift Nasdaq into the close…

 

The USD Index continued to drift lower while AUD's collapse overnight (after record low inflation) stands out among the majors…

 

 

Treasuries broke the longest losing streak since Sept 2014 today with 10Y Yields dropping 6bps after rising for 7 days straight.

 

This was the biggest drop in 3 weeks… as bonds rallied back from where they were at the March FOMC…

 

As 2s10s flattened dramatically…

 

Commodities were generally higher today as the dollar los more ground. Copper continued to slide as chinese commodity bubble bursts, PMs were flat tp sligfhtly higher but crude was total chaos…

 

F##k The Fundamentals…at least the ramp stopped at NYMEX close…for now

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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And So It Begins?

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

Over the last few years we have made it abundantly clear that sooner or later it would be shown that the whole Silicon Valley meme of “It’s different this time” (i.e., in regards to unicorns, social everything, eye balls for ads etc., etc.) was nothing more than the equivalent of a teenager’s response of “because” when arguing why valuations of many of "The Valley’s" newest, or trans-formative platforms were clearly not only out-of-whack with reality, but bordered on insanity.

A $BILLION dollars+ in valuation was thrown around as if it was “a given right.” “Who cares if it makes money today” the thinking went. As matter of fact, for many, who cared if it made money ever! It was still worth $Billions if you could get some investors to throw some cash at you, then, with a little bit of alchemy (actually a lot of alchemy) you could take a few $Million in subsequent funding rounds to $Billions and cash out via an IPO. Rinse, repeat.

If anyone questioned the bottom-line business metrics? Like a teenager; just stomp your feet and speak a bunch of incoherent figures and meaningless comparisons. Then, when you ran out of meaningless drivel, just finish your statement with, well, “It’s different this time.” However, it is precisely this once overused defense for magical thinking that is now rearing its dark side. For now, it just might be exactly that – and “because” may also have more coherence to solidify that reasoning than any teenager could have dreamed of.

Why do I make such an argument? I’ll give you one word that says it all: Twitter™.

 

As I type this Twitter shares are currently down over 15% from yesterdays close. By the way it’s going as of the mornings session, it looks like it could take out its all time lows by the end of day, if not sooner. After all, those lows are far closer than its closing price last night. Yet, there’s a much larger issue at play here that nobody as of yet (as far as I’ve seen) has put the real issue that is troubling for the whole “it’s different this time” players. That issue?

Twitter increased the one metric the whole meme (and in my opinion – survival) stands on. e.g., user growth. And what was the reaction? Hint: If you currently own shares  – you’re not happy. As a matter of fact you might also be a bit confused. After all, “user growth” (i.e., eye balls for ads) you were told (or sold) as the metric that beats all others. So why are the shares down? Well, I can only surmise: “it’s different this time.” Oh yeah, and – “because…”

Because, as in: “where’s my money” now matters more to Wall Street then “we’ll make money, someday.”

For those who’ve been with me for a while know I’ve been pounding the table (and keyboard) stating that you’ll know everything has changed when suddenly the metrics that were touted as the defense of “it’s different this time” suddenly seem to not matter. And to watch for when these metrics are “beaten” as in surprised to the upside – and the stock gets pummeled regardless. And in my opinion not only: Here we are. But rather: And it’s just beginning.

If you want more clues just look to Apple™ earnings reported also yesterday and the subsequent reaction in its stock price. The reaction?

Hammered is a worthy description. However, there’s a very big difference that must not be lost. For whatever you think of Apple and its stock valuations one thing is very different when it comes to comparing apples to apples (i.e., “the Valley”) Apple increased its cash hoard by $Billions because (and there’s that word again that now truly means something) it generated net profits in excess of actual cash that can either be saved, or used at another time. In other words – it added cash – not “eye balls” the exact opposite of all the others. And the reaction? Remember “hammered?”

How does one think this is going to play out for the 800lb “eye balls for ads” elephant in “The Valley” Facebook™ when it reports later this evening?

If you’re a business person of any sort I believe this is one earnings report in both timing, as well as, the response to what is not only reported, but rather, what transpires on the conference call and the resulting reaction too it.

It will be interesting to see exactly what the tone will be of those analyzing Facebook’s latest report once they finish digesting and parsing out what the latest implications from the Federal Reserve announces later this afternoon right before.

If the mood is dower from the Fed. going into Facebook’s earnings, Zuck and crew might find there’s not as much “love” or “likes” for its current valuation. Regardless of any improvement in “eye-ball” metrics.

I believe the focus will be more on “where’s my money” before he allocates it into another WhatsApp™ buying spree with their money. But, we shall see.

Regardless of whether you use, like, or have anything invested in the Facebook one thing is abundantly clear, and will become even clearer this afternoon.

Is it different this time – because…the party’s truly over? After all, what would one expect when many in the valley put more stock into their A-list for their themed parties rather than their company’s bottom line. Or, openly stated – “for charity” – they’ll be selling also.

Again, we shall see.

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Congressional Hearing Pits Bill Ackman And Outgoing Valeant CEO Against Angry Senators

In a few moments, a major showdown will take place in the Senate when on the same table Valeant’s outgoing CEO Michael Pearson will sit next to Valeant’s most prominent investor Bill Ackman and also the former CFO, Howard Schiller, who the company recently tried to scapegoat for most of the problem that sent the stock price of VRX crashing 85% from its summer 2015 highs.

The hearing of the Senate Special Committee on Aging is the third in a series focused on “sudden, aggressive price spikes of decades-old prescription drugs,” according to an e-mailed statement. Valeant is one of four drugmakers under investigation by the panel, which is probing practices including acquiring and then significantly raising the list price of older medicines. Pearson was deposed for nine hours by the committee last week, according to Bloomberg.

According to his prepared testimony, Pearson will tell lawmakers that he was “too aggressive” and made mistakes in drastically hiking prices for several critical medicines. Pearson will issue the unusual mea culpa on Capitol Hill for the business strategy that made Valeant an industry powerhouse but also triggered a backlash against the Canadian drugmaker.

“Let me state plainly that it was a mistake to pursue, and in hindsight I regret pursuing, transactions where a central premise was a planned increase in the prices of the medicines,” Pearson states in the written testimony.

While the comments come days before Pearson is to be replaced as Valeant CEO with the former CEO of Perrigo, they may not win much sympathy from members of the Senate Committee on Aging. The committee is investigating the dramatic price increases pushed by Valeant and several other drugmakers.

Another problem as noted by Wells Fargo earlier, is that as the following chart from Wells Fargo clearly shows, in the year after which Valeant got in trouble for boosting prices, it continued to do so, and in the first quarter of 2016 alone, the average year-over-year price increase across a basket of 30 products was a whopping 78%.

 

A longtime corporate consultant, Pearson took the reins at Valeant in 2008 and embarked on a spree of more than 140 acquisitions, buying up rights to older, niche drugs and repeatedly hiking prices. Pearson’s approach — which bypassed the huge research and development investments typically made by drugmakers — seemed to offer a cheaper, more reliable business model and made him a favorite of Wall Street investors. He also pioneered the tax-dodging “inversion” technique later employed by other U.S. companies, merging with firms overseas to take advantage of their reduced tax rates.

The company caught the attention of Congress last year after buying two life-saving heart drugs, Nitropress and Isuprel, and hiking their prices, tripling one and raising the other six-fold.

Pearson says that Valeant decided to raise the prices after learning that cheaper generic versions of the drugs would soon hit the market. “In retrospect, we relied too heavily on the industry practice of increasing the price of brand name drugs in the months before generic entry,” he states in his testimony.

In recent months, Valeant has been swamped by a host of problems including three ongoing federal probes of its accounting and pricing practices, massive debt and the threat of default on agreements with creditors and bondholders.

Pearson also got in trouble recently for refusing to be deposed only to ultimately succumb to Congressional demands.

We expect sparks will fly, tempers will rise and fingers will be pointed during today’s testimony starting at 3:30 PM eastern.

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The $2 Trillion Gamble That Saudi Arabia Cannot Win

Submitted by Juan Cole via OilPrice.com,

Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, 30, the deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia laid out his vision for Saudi Arabia on Monday in a plan called “Vision 2030.” He wants to get Saudi Arabia off its oil dependence in only 4 years, by 2020, and wants to diversify the economy into manufacturing and mining.

In an interview with Al Arabiya, the prince said the future of the kingdom would be based on:

1. Its possession of the Muslim shrine cities of Mecca and Medina and the “Arab and Muslim depth” that position gave the kingdom

 

2. The kingdom’s geographical centrality to world commerce, with 30 percent of global trade passing through the 3 major sea routes that Saudi Arabia bestrides (not sure what the third is, after the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf).

 

3. The creation of a $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund through a sale of 5 percent of shares in Aramco, the world’s largest oil company.

Prince Muhammad said Monday that he thought these assets would allow the kingdom to cease its dependence on petroleum in the very near future.

CNBC summarized other planks of his platform this way:

“The planned economic diversification also involved localizing renewable energy and industrial equipment sectors and creating high-quality tourism attractions. It also plans to make it easier to apply for visas and hoped to create 90,000 job opportunities in its mining sector.”

Saudi Arabia’s citizen population is probably only about 20 million, so it is a small country without a big domestic market. It is surrounded in the general region by huge countries like Egypt (pop. 85 million), Iran (pop. 75 million) and Turkey (75 million), not to mention Ethiopia (pop. 90 million) Without petroleum, it is difficult to see what would be distinctive about Saudi Arabia economically.

The excruciatingly young prince, who was born in 1985, has a BA in Law from a local Saudi university and his way of speaking about the elements of the economy is not reassuring. Take his emphasis on the maritime trade routes that flow around the Arabian Peninsula. How exactly does Saudi Arabia derive a dime from them? The only tolls I can think of are collected by Egypt for passage through the Suez Canal. By far the most important container port in the region is Jebel Ali in the UAE, which dwarfs Jedda. His estimate of 30 percent of world trade going through these bodies of water strikes me as exaggerated. Only about 10 percent of world trade goes through the Suez Canal.

As for tourism, in a country where alcohol is forbidden and religious police report to the police unmarried couples on dates, that seems to me a non-starter outside the religious tourism of pilgrimage to Mecca. The annual pilgrimage brought in $16.5 billion or 3 percent of the Saudi GDP four years ago, but that number appears to be way down the last couple of years. Unless the prince plans to highly increase the 2-3 million pilgrims annually, religious tourism will remain a relatively small part of the economy.

He also spoke about the new bridge planned from Saudi Arabia to Egypt as likely to drive trade to the kingdom and to make it a crossroads. But the road would go through the Sinai Peninsula, which is highly insecure and in the midst of an insurrection. And where do you drive to on the other side? You could maybe take fruits and vegetables by truck from Egypt to countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Would Saudi Arabia collect tariffs on these transit goods? I can’t see how that generates all that much money. The big opportunity for overland transport would be to link Egypt to a major market like Iran (pop. 77 million), and via Iran, Pakistan and India. But Prince Muhammad and his circle are hardliners against Iran and unlikely to foster trade with it.

Saudi Arabia suffers from the Dutch disease, i.e. its currency is artificially hardened by its valuable petroleum assets. They may eventually not be worth anything if hydrocarbons are replaced by green energy or even outlawed. But in 2016, they are still valuable, and they make the riyal expensive versus other currencies. The result is that anything made in Saudi Arabia would be unaffordably expensive in India (the rupee is still a soft currency). As long as Saudi Arabia produces so much petroleum, it is unclear how it can industrialize in the sense of making secondary goods.

As for the sovereign wealth fund, let’s say the ARAMCO partial IPO actually realizes $2 trillion. Let’s say it gets 5 percent on its investments after overhead and that all $2 trillion are invested around the world. That would be $100 billion a year, or 1/6 of Saudi Arabia’s GDP last year. It doesn’t replace the oil.

Saudi Arabia’s Gross Domestic Product in 2014 was $746 bn., of which probably 70 percent was petroleum sales. In 2015 it was only $653 bn., causing it to fall behind Turkey, the Netherlands and Switzerland. It will be smaller yet in 2016 because of the continued low oil prices.

All this is not to reckon with the profligate spending in which the kingdom is engaged, with a direct war in Yemen and a proxy war in Syria, neither cheap. (Both wars are pet projects of Prince Muhammad bin Salman). It also has a lot of big weapons purchases in the pipeline, one of the reasons for President Obama’s humiliating visit last week. It ran a $100 bn. budget deficit in 2015. Saudi Arabia has big currency reserves, but I doubt it can go on like this more than five or six years.

Yemen in particular has proved to be a quagmire, and the Houthi rebels still hold the capital of Sanaa. The only new initiative is that Saudi and local forces have kicked al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula out of the port of Mukalla. This campaign shows a sudden interest in defeating al-Qaeda, which had been allowed to grow in Yemen while the main target was the Shiite Houthis, which Riyadh says are allied with Iran (the links seem minor).

So it seems to me that the Vision for 2030 is mostly smoke and mirrors. As the electric car and better public transport replace gasoline-driven automobiles and trucks, the demand for petroleum will collapse over the next 20 years. A really big extreme global warming event, like a glacier plopping into the ocean and suddenly raising sea level by a foot, e.g., would spread panic and accelerate the abandonment of oil. Saudi Arabia probably cannot replace the money it will lose if oil goes out of style and so is doomed to downward mobility and very possibly significant instability. It has been a great party since the 1940s; it is going to be a hell of a hangover.

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