The Future of Money

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The cartels and state organs are frantically trying to co-op, outlaw, corral or control this disruptive technology.

To say that the future of money is blockchain-based crypto-currencies and payment platforms is to state the obvious nowadays. If this wasn’t the case, then why are Goldman Sachs et al. (i.e. the global too big to fail banks) rushing to patent their own proprietary versions of blockchain technologies? Why are banks investing heavily in companies that are trying to establish a global blockchain platform for banks?

The reason is that banks understand their core reason to exist is threatened by peer-to-peer, decentralized payment platforms and currencies. If payments no longer need to be routed through a centralized trusted institution, then one core function of banks disappears.

If peer-to-peer lending and securitization becomes easier and cheaper due to the blockchain, then banks’ function of allocating capital also vanishes.

Gordon White and I discuss The Future of Money (and its connection to meaningful work) (1:11 hrs; be forewarned we cover a wealth of topics, from philosophy to higher education to gardening to creating value in an economy that is being disrupted.)

Since money–currency that serves as a medium of exchange–no longer needs to be issued by central banks/states, central banks/states are also in danger of being mooted/bypassed as enterprises and people realize they can escape the relentless destruction of their purchasing power by inflation-seeking central banks/states.

If you aren’t familiar with blockchain technologies and crypto-currencies, and how these innovations are disrupting centralized banking and state-issued currencies, here are a few articles to start with:

Why Wall Street Is Embracing the Blockchain—Its Biggest Threat

“The premise of the Bitcoin platform—a decentralized, trustless, replicated ledger of transactions—is the virtual opposite of the centralized, trusted, guarded, model of modern securities processing, which has long relied upon DTCC, among others, as a central authority,” reads a treatise the organization released alongside that canned quote from its CEO. In other words, the DTCC realizes that it’s embracing an existential threat.

Forget How Blockchain Works, Talk About What It Does

Block chain (database)

Blockchain: The next big thing (or is it?) (5/9/15)

All that is needed, blockchain boosters argue, is a “killer app” to find a use for the breakthrough, in the same way that web browsers made the internet useful. Some still think that a currency is the most promising application, but plenty of engineers are throwing other ideas against the wall to see what sticks.

Bitcoin Blockchain Technology In Financial Services: How The Disruption Will Play Out

“For an entire industry to be focused on a new technology within three years [of it being known beyond the initial core of enthusiasts] without it actually even disrupting them even 1% yet is an interesting reality,” says Chain.com CEO Adam Ludwin. For instance, he notes that in 2000 the recording companies’ reaction to Napster was not to invest in digital models but instead to sink money into lawsuits.

Nobody can predict precisely how blockchain technologies will disrupt centralized banking and currencies, but we can predict the blockchain will disrupt the current cartel-state arrangement that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

The cartels and state organs are frantically trying to co-op, outlaw, corral or control this disruptive technology. Here’s an analogy: North Korea has managed to co-op, outlaw, corral or control the Internet, and how prosperous and productive is North Korea?

We cannot let the banks and central banks/states co-op, outlaw, corral or control blockchain technologies. If they “win,” our economy will stagnate and the slide to complete implosion will be unstoppable.

The Future of Money (podcast, 1:11 hrs, with host Gordon White)


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1RIpGcG Tyler Durden

Vietnam Seizes Chinese Ship In Gulf Of Tonkin

The territorial scramble for various resource rich areas in the East/South China Sea and specifically the Spratly islands has been a major point of contention involving China and most of its regional neighbors, recently expanding to the US which is determined not to let China have the upper hand, for nearly two years now, with occasional episodes of escalation that threaten the regional peace. One such episode took place on Thursday of last week when the Vietnamese coast guard seized a Chinese vessel for intruding into its territorial waters, according to a local report Saturday.

As the Nikkei reports, in a rare move for Vietnamese authorities against a Chinese vessel, the coast guard in the northern port city of Haiphong seized the ship carrying diesel fuel in the infamous Gulf of Tonkin on Thursday.

The WSJ adds that Border Defense Force of Haiphong City found the vessel carrying 100,000 liters of diesel oil Thursday near Vietnam’s Bach Long Vi Island in the Gulf of Tonkin, reported the An Ninh Thu Do newspaper, which is run by Hanoi Police Department. After seizing it, the force towed the ship to the city.

The paper said Vietnamese authorities are investigating the case.

The captain of the Chinese ship admitted to the intrusion, telling Vietnamese officials the ship was carrying fuel for Chinese fishing boats operating in Vietnamese waters, according to the report.

This is the biggest territorial escalation between the two countries since 2014 when China towed an oil rig to disputed waters in the South China Sea in 2014, triggering dangerous boat ramming and anti-China riots in Vietnam.

Officials from Vietnam and China haven’t yet commented on the seizure.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1pZCiVx Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: April 4

  • Ties between Germany and Russia enter new chill (Reuters)
  • Tax authorities begin probes into some people named in Panama Papers leak (Reuters)
  • SEC investigates ex-JPMorgan debt traders (FT)
  • Who Will Win Wisconsin? Here Are Six Credible Predictions (BBG)
  • Victim in Wall St. Scheme Was a Classmate of Its Accused Architect (NYT)
  • Makers took big price increases on widely used U.S. drugs (Reuters)
  • Fed’s New Bank Critic Keeps Heat On (WSJ)
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of Revenue (BBG)
  • Behind Anbang’s Curious Starwood Courtship (WSJ)
  • Migrants sent back from Greece arrive in Turkey under EU deal (Reuters)
  • Tesla Model 3 orders point to potential $10bn sales (FT)
  • Euro-Area Unemployment Declines to Lowest Since 2011 (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Enters Homebuilding Business to Tackle Shortage (BBG)
  • Bernie Sanders’ ghost tweeter keeps his Brooklyn accent (Reuters)
  • Alaska Air to buy Virgin America for $2.6 billion (Reuters)
  • ECB to Keep Up Forceful Action on Price Risks, Praet Says (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– Alaska Air Group Inc is expected to announce on Monday that it won the auction for Virgin America Inc, beating rival JetBlue Airways Corp in a frenzied bidding process that culminated in a cash price of about $2.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/239acWy)

– Reservations for Tesla Motors Inc’s Model 3 electric car have now topped 276,000 since the company began taking deposits on March 31. Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave an update on reservations through Twitter late Saturday evening, after updating the figure several times since Thursday evening’s unveiling of the prototype Model 3, due to be out in late 2017. (http://on.wsj.com/224gRin)

– Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday that the Federal Bureau of Investigation hasn’t yet contacted her about her use of a private email server and some of her most sensitive emails. (http://on.wsj.com/239Qf1J)

– Hain Celestial Group, maker of natural shampoos and soaps, said it was reformulating dozens of products and dropping claims that they don’t contain sodium lauryl sulfate, a cleaning agent often used in mainstream products. (http://on.wsj.com/1SLTTdq)

 

FT

Five former traders from Barclays are set to stand trial this week on charges of fraud related to Libor. (http://on.ft.com/1N4pK4u)

The U.S. Securities Exchange Commission has launched an investigation into government debt trades made by two former JPMorgan Chase and Co employees. (http://on.ft.com/1N4pRgC)

A catalogue of failings led to the collapse of an NHS contract seven months after it began, an official report concluded. (http://on.ft.com/1N4q0Rf)

Pre-orders for Tesla Model 3 continued over the weekend, raising questions about the carmaker’s ability to meet demand. (http://on.ft.com/1N4q1Vk)

 

NYT

– One of Wall Street’s top deal makers Scott Barshay is moving to Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison after a 25-year career at the white-shoe law firm Cravath, Swaine and Moore. (nyti.ms/239Q3Qd)

– In an article, the International Consortium of investigative Journalists said leaked documents from a Panama law firm Mossack Fonseca revealed the offshore accounts of 140 politicians and public officials, including a dozen current and former world leaders and several individuals with close ties to President Vladimir Putin of Russia.(nyti.ms/1RyTU5p)

– When Andrew Caspersen sought money for an investment that federal authorities said duped investors out of tens of millions of dollars, one of the people he turned to was a college classmate at Princeton University, James McIntyre. McIntyre managing director at the hedge fund Moore Capital Management, is the previously unidentified individual who federal prosecutors said last week invested – and lost – $400,000 in Caspersen’s scheme. (nyti.ms/1ZY7p0A)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wants to transform the Liberal Party from a members-only club into a more inclusive – and free – political movement. A proposal, adopted at a meeting of the party’s national board over the weekend, would do away with the long-standing policy that only dues-paying, card-carrying Liberals can get involved in party activities. (http://bit.ly/1W4XxSo)

** A massive leak of millions of confidential documents from a Panamanian law firm has drawn back the curtain on the world of offshore tax evasion and money laundering, and allegedly includes a $2-billion money trail linked to associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin. (http://bit.ly/1RIdHfm)

NATIONAL POST

** Starbucks Canada to start selling wine, craft beer and cider in Toronto as it hones in on customer base (http://bit.ly/1V3GOPW)

 

Britain

The Times

Tens of thousands of steelworkers in the UK could have their pensions cut under plans by Tata Steel to wash its hands of the 15 billion pounds British Steel retirement scheme.(http://bit.ly/1RW1SYv)

In order to give its staff in the UK “a balanced view”, JP Morgan has drafted in former EU commissioner Peter Mandelson and two pro-Brussels business leaders to warn staff against Brexit.(http://bit.ly/1Y98NMk)

The Guardian

Police have warned people in Lancashire and Wilmslow, Cheshire, not to use Santander cash machines, following reports of suspicious devices being found on the bank’s machines across Lancashire last week. (http://bit.ly/1RGv00f)

Though Beijing is optimistic about its plans to help build new reactors at Hinkley in Somerset and Bradwell in Essex, an agreement between Chinese nuclear firm CGN and its partner EDF of France to develop the first new reactors in Britain for 20 years has still not been signed.(http://bit.ly/25EjhJ0)

The Telegraph

Britain’s exit from the European Union would lead to the “implosion” of the continental bloc and force the United States to intervene to put “Humpty Dumpty back together again”, Xavier Rolet, head of the London Stock Exchange said. (http://bit.ly/1RW39P6)

Britain’s steel industry is set to be saved from collapse by two little-known financiers who hope to revive the “British Steel” name. (http://bit.ly/1qhju51)

Sky News

Millions of documents leaked to a number of media organisations across Europe apparently show the ways the rich and famous leaders, politicians including three former Tory MPs and six peers, can exploit secretive offshore tax regimes. (http://bit.ly/1RVOvYe)

Billionaire Investor Wilbur Ross is among a pack of possible buyers who are likely to be contacted in the coming days, to rescue Tata Steel’s UK operations.(http://bit.ly/1W3x0Vy)

The Independent

A multibillion pound move to save Britain’s steel industry from collapse by underwriting some of its pension liabilities, cutting its energy bills and modernising its largest plant is being prepared by the British Government.(http://ind.pn/1RZKV98)


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/25GcGhs Tyler Durden

Germany To Greece: No Debt Relief For You

Whether or not the IMF intended to use a Greek credit event to destabilize Europe as the Greek government first alleged, or whether this was “nonsense” as Lagarde responded to Tsipras letter, is irrelevant – ultimately the underlying premise was whether or not Greece gets debt relief, something the IMF has been insisting on since the third bailout package. And as is well-known, it was Germany – not Greece – that stood in the IMF’s way.

So after a terse weekend in which relations between Greece and the IMF devolved once again to frigidly sub-zero levels, moments ago Germany chimed in with its position, which can be summed up in another familiar word: “nein“.

As Bloomberg reports, citing finmin Martin Jaeger, “Greek debt relief isn’t on the agenda right now”, adding that the “priority is to put Greek budget on sustainable footing.” He also said that Greece already has historically low repayment costs on bailout loans, and that “we remain confident that we can achieve progress, though there’s still quite a bit of work to do.”

Finally, he said that we “don’t see why we can’t complete review before Orthodox Easter.”

Additionally, the German chief govt spokesman Steffen Seibert said in response to reporter’s question whether they discussed IMF-Greece relations Merkel, that Tsipras spoke by phone on Sunday to discuss “a variety of issues.” He made it clear that Merkel government position on IMF participation in Greek aid program and debt relief hasn’t changed.

Elsewhere, as we first noted in our summary of the Greek reaction to the leaked IMF letter, Bloomberg writes that “Greece could again face the threat of being pushed into default and out of the euro area if its current bailout review drags on into June and July, according to European officials monitoring the slow progress of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s negotiations with creditors.”

Greece still hasn’t cut a deal on pensions, tax administration or its fiscal gap, and other issues like non-performing loans and a proposed privatization fund continue to slow the talks, said the European officials, who asked not to be named because discussions are ongoing. The International Monetary Fund presents another obstacle, they said.

 

The IMF, for its part, disagrees with the euro area on how Greece needs to cut its budget. With Germany insisting that the fund will eventually have to get on board for the bailout to proceed, officials from the IMF are trying to find ways to pressure Chancellor Angela Merkel to give Greece debt relief, according to a transcript of a purported conversation published by WikiLeaks April 2.

At the end of the day, it will be up to the Greek people, and how they react to this latest scandal although with their assets held under the protective “capital controls” buffer which needs the ECB’s continued blessing, we doubt the fireworks of last summer will repeat.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qjmvBH Tyler Durden

Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline

In a quiet start to the week following last week’s surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

Crude fell in early trading after Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince said last week the kingdom will only arrest production if Iran does, although it has since posted a modest rebound, while copper dropped to a one-month low. European stocks advanced after trading at their lowest valuations in more than a year relative to U.S. equities, even as France’s phone companies tumbled after a deal to consolidate the nation’s telecommunications industry fell apart.

“Three of the major commodities oil, gold and copper have all retraced in recent days,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S told Bloomberg. “Saudi Arabia caused a major upset on Friday by saying that a freeze deal was conditional of Iran joining which will not happen at this stage.” Copper and industrial metals have been hurt on concern China’s investment-led economic boom won’t be enough to avoid more cutbacks, he said.

In key macro news, Euro-area unemployment dropped to 10.3% in February down from an upwardly revised 10.4%, and the lowest level since 2011, in line with estimates. “I see this number as a movement sideways,” said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “This is a reflection of what is happening in the economy. Growth has clearly weakened in the second half of last year and the first quarter of this year will also probably be a bit weaker.”

Youth unemployment remained disturbingly high, with 21.6% of Europeans under 25 unemployed, just modestly lower than the 22.7% a year ago.

In other news, Eurozone producer price inflation also dropped, this time by -0.7%, and down -4.2%, to the most negative annual increase since the financial crisis.

 

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.8%, after being in the red earlier, while futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2% despite the GAAP PE multiple on the S&P hitting approaching 24, the highest level since the dot com era. While U.S. stocks erased annual losses and closed at their highest level of the year on Friday, the rebound in European shares has stalled for more than two weeks. With a valuation of about 14.7 times estimated earnings, the Stoxx 600 traded at its lowest level since January 2015 relative to the S&P 500 on Friday.

This is where markets stood as of this moment:

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2068
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.8% to 336
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6165
  • DAX up 0.3% to 9829
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.13%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.23%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.45%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 315.5
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.3% to 16123
  • S&P/ASX 200 down less than 0.1% to 4995
  • US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 1.76%
  • Dollar Index up 0.13% to 94.74
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $36.53
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $38.55
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,217
  • Silver spot down 0.6% to $14.96

Top News:

  • Orange-Bouygues Deal Collapse Ends Months of Tense Diplomacy: Deal to consolidate French telecom industry proved too complex; government demands on price, governance were late obstacle
  • Alaska Air Said Near Accord to Buy Branson’s Virgin America: Negotiations are advanced, deal could face regulatory scrutiny after wave of combinations; JetBlue Airways was said to be other competitor in bidding; Alaska Air Seen Winning Virgin America for ~$2.5b Cash: WSJ
  • World Leaders Hid Wealth Via Shell Companies, Report Alleges: Leaked files from Panama law firm show web of hidden wealth, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists says
  • Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Mulls U.S. Regional Banks in Growth Bid: U.S. banking market remains aa focus because of size and steady growth as lender wants to be among top 10 U.S. banks by deposits
  • Biggest Ever Saudi Overhaul Targets $100 Billion of New Revenue: Levies on expats, energy, luxury goods, sugary drinks seen; plan is to boost non-oil revenue to balance budget by 2020
  • Amtrak Resumes Service After Fatal Crash Slows Northeast Trains: To restore regular train service today in Northeast after crash that killed 2 railroad workers near Philadelphia
  • Blackstone to Buy HPE’s Stake in Mphasis for $825m: To buy at least 84% of HPE’s stake for 430 rupees/share, remaining 16% will be bought through mandatory tender offer
  • SoftBank’s Arora Said in ‘Active’ Talks With Yahoo: N.Y. Post: SoftBank President Arora said to be in talks with Yahoo’s board, including CEO Marissa Mayer
  • Trump Back on Attack Demanding Kasich Exit, Predicting Recession: Trump demanded competitor John Kasich drop out of the Republican presidential race and asserted U.S. is headed for a “very massive recession”
  • Top JPMorgan Treasuries Trader’s Exit Said to Draw SEC Inquiry: Regulators examining alleged policy breaches that prompted JPMorgan’s U.S. head of government-bond trading and another employee to leave firm this year, according to person briefed on the matter
  • ‘Batman v Superman’ Rules Box Office for Second Weekend: movie registered hefty sales amid light competition from new releases

Looking at regional markets, we find that Asian stocks trade mostly positive following last Friday’s gains on Wall St. where stronger than expected NFP and Average Hourly Earnings data lifted sentiment, despite weakness across the commodities complex. This saw the ASX 200 (+0.05%) underpinned from the open with participants also short-covering following last week’s declines. Nikkei 225 (-0.25%) saw indecisive price action as a firmer JPY weighed on sentiment, while trade in the region was also thin with China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets closed for Ching Ming festival. 10 year JGBs traded higher amid indecisiveness in riskier assets while the BoJ also entered the market to purchase about JPY 1.2trl of government debt.

Top Asian News

  • Goldman Says Sell Asia Currencies After Best Rally Since ’08: Predicts yen plunge to 130/dollar, yuan at 7 in 12 mos.
  • BOJ Negative Rates Risk Destroying Loan Market as Freeze Deepens: Call market activity at record low 2 mos. after shift
  • Japan Inc. Inflation Expectations Decline as Confidence Wanes: Cos. cut forecasts for inflation for next 5 yrs from now
  • Honda Fit Fires, Collisions Prompt at Least Sixth Major Recall: Co. recalls more than 283,000 Fits, Vezels in Japan
  • SunEdison Said to Seek Buyers for 1GW of India Solar Projects: Developer has 1,060MW of unbuilt solar projects in India, BNEF says

European equities have seen a downbeat start to the week in terms of newsflow, despite modest upside in Euro Stoxx (+0.2%), with significant underperformance seen in French telecom names after collapse of the potential deal between Orange (-5.5%) and Bouygues (-14.6%), with the likes of Iliad (-14.3%) and Numericable (-14.1%) also suffering as a consequence.

The German curve has reversed some of the initial flattening bias, with Bunds consequently moving off the best levels to trade near unchanged levels even as peripheral bond yield spreads remained broadly wider. GR/GE lOy spread widened by over 10bps even as the head of the IMF dismissed reports that the body is trying to push Greece towards default as “simply nonsense”. At the same time, market participants had to contend with a large slate of EUR denominated corporate supply, with the likes of Fedex and Credit Suisse due to price.

Dovish rhetoric from ECB’s Praet who said that the central bank will act forcefully to low inflation if conditions warrant did little to drive Bunds, with GE/UK spread widening amid the release of better than expected UK construction PMI data

Top European News

  • Praet Says ECB Will React ‘Forcefully’ to Low Inflation If Needed: Says “prolonged period of low inflation we are in today has increased the risks that inflation misses might become persistent”
  • SocGen Plans to Cut About 125 Jobs in France, Mostly in Trading: Plans cuts in France, mostly at trading operations as harsher capital rules put profitability under pressure
  • Melrose Said to Drop Out of Race for Philips Lighting Unit: Likelihood of IPO increases even as sale process continues
  • Greece’s Euro Future May Be Back in Play If Rescue Talks Drag On: Creditors resume talks in Athens on bailout program; pensions, tax policy remain obstacles, EU officials say
  • Lagarde Says IMF Greek Deal Far Off as Talks Roiled by Leaks: Rebuffed Greek calls to replace top officials overseeing country’s bailout, said IMF is “a good distance away” from agreement that would allow for additional loans
  • Banks, Investors Push EU to Fix Flaws in ABS Market Revival Plan: 32 Banks, asset managers and groups issue joint note on plan; signatories to letter include HSBC, BlackRock, UniCredit, BBVA

In currencies, the USD has seen modest gains today, notably against the commodity currencies and the JPY.  The Aussie weakened 0.8 percent to 76.17 U.S. cents, after climbing 2.3 percent last week. Retail sales were little changed in February from a month earlier, a report showed, missing economists’ forecast for a 0.4 percent gain. The nation’s central bank reviews monetary policy on Tuesday, when it’s expected to hold borrowing costs at a record low.

The yen added 0.1 percent to 111.54 per dollar after jumping 0.8 percent on Friday amid the greenback’s retreat. The won strengthened  0.7 percent. The ruble sank 1.5 percent, falling for a second day and South Africa’s rand slid 0.5 percent, leading declines in developing-nation currencies. India’s rupee climbed to the highest this year before foreign investors bid for quotas on the country’s bonds.

In commodities, WTI and Brent have both seen positive trade in mid European trade with WTI finding support at USD 38.20/bbl with the next level in focus on the upside being USD 37.00/bbl. Gold has also seen an uptick in prices after falling earlier in the session and gapping down at the open. Silver also has recovered slightly after falling in the Asian and Early Eu session but there is a key resistance level higher a USD 15.2020/oz. Meanwhile Copper prices were subdued and remained near a monthly low with a lack buyers due to holidays in the Asia including largest consumer China on a technical note there is a key support level for Copper at around the 214.90 level which also coincides with an upward trendline on the daily chart where prices first made its lower highs. In base metals Zinc, Tin and Lead are all following in the same direction with prices edging lower.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • French telecom names lead the way lower for European equities, while Bunds fail to gain from risk off sentiment.
  • Commodity linked currencies experiencing modest weakness amid downside in the energy and metals complexes, with AUD continuing to underperform after the downbeat data from overnight.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and Durables Goods with speakers including Fed’s Rosengren (Voter, Dove) and Kashkari (Non-Voter, N/A)
  • Treasuries little changed, European equity markets rise and Asian markets fall (China closed), oil higher in overnight trading. Today’s economic data includes factory orders, Labor Market Conditions Index.
  • Societe Generale SA said it plans to cut about 125 jobs in France, mostly at its trading operations, as stricter market regulations squeeze profitability
  • Euro-area unemployment retreated in February to 10.3%, the lowest since 2011, continuing its slow decline as the economy grows at a modest pace
  • EU efforts to revive the asset-backed securities market and boost financing for small businesses could falter if repairs aren’t made to its plan for a new class of “simple, transparent and standardized” products, some of the biggest financial firms in the 28-nation bloc said
  • Copper is heading for its longest losing streak in two years amid concern a glut will persist as miners press on with cost cuts and banks such as Barclays Plc see more losses
  • Gold’s biggest quarterly surge since 1986 has all but erased losses the Bank of Russia suffered by mounting a rescue of the ruble more than a year ago.
  • The freeze in Tokyo’s market for overnight loans looks set to extend into a third month as the Bank of Japan’s negative rate policy makes it harder for brokers to price and process transactions
  • Leaked files from a Panama law firm that creates shell companies show that politicians, criminals and celebrities worldwide have used banks and shadow companies to hide their finances
  • Iceland PM Gunnlaugsson faces a no confidence vote in parliament amid revelations he had an investment account in the British Virgin Islands created with the aid of the Panama-based law firm at the center of a global tax evasion leak.
  • Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly steady; European and Asian equity markets mixed (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan closed); U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude oil rises; gold and copper move lower

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: ISM New York, March, est. 54.1(prior 53.6)
  • 10:00am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, March (prior -2.4)
  • 10:00am: Factory Orders, Feb., est. -1.8% (prior 1.6%)
    • Factory Orders Ex Trans, Feb., est. -0.5% (prior -0.2%)
    • Durable Goods Orders, Feb. F, est. -2.8% (prior -2.8%)
    • Durables Ex Transportation, Feb. F, est. -1.0% (prior -1%)
    • Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air, Feb F (prior -1.8%)
    • Cap Goods Ship Non-def Ex Air, Feb F (prior -1.1%)

Central Banks

  • 9:30am: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Boston
  • 7:00pm: Fed’s Kashkari speaks

DB’s Jim Reid completes the overnight wrap

This week we’ve got the usual post-payrolls lull in the data but there are still a couple of events which will have some bearing on the near-term direction for markets. The first is on Wednesday evening where we’ll get the March FOMC minutes to comb through. Given the range of dovish (mainly Yellen) and hawkish (Bullard, Lacker, Lockhart, Williams) Fedspeak of late it’ll be interesting to see what clues the minutes throw up. Also potentially interesting this week is a panel interview on Thursday evening which will see current Fed Chair Yellen participate along with former Chairs Bernanke, Volcker and Greenspan.

With that to look forward to, this morning in Asia, with China and Hong Kong closed for holidays it’s been a bit of slow start with most of the price action relatively benign. In Japan we’ve seen the Nikkei (-0.18%) and Topix (+0.10%) trade between gains and losses for the most part, while elsewhere the Kospi is +0.14% and the ASX +0.19%. Credit markets are a touch tighter generally. In the FX space the Aussie Dollar is slightly weaker post some softer than expected retail sales numbers in Australia.

Moving on. News flow over the weekend and this morning has been fairly light but one story which has attracted some attention is coming out of the talks between Greece and its Creditors. Greek PM Tsipras is said to have questioned the credibility of the negotiations following the release of a leaked transcript in which negotiations were said to be ‘difficult’. In an FT article this morning IMF Chief Lagarde is said to have responded to claims that the Fund was looking to push Greece towards default as a negotiating tactic as being false. Lagarde did however say that in her view a coherent program for Greece was ‘still a good distance away’ and the weekend’s incident ‘has made me concerned as to whether we can indeed achieve progress in a climate of extreme sensitivity to statements of either side’.

Reversing gear now and quickly recapping that data from Friday. In terms of the March employment report in the US, headline non-farm payrolls printed at a slightly higher than expected 215k (vs. 205k expected). That follows a 245k reading in February which was revised marginally higher on Friday. That takes the Q1 average to 209k which compares to the average monthly reading of 229k in 2015. There was good news also in the average hourly earnings numbers which rose a greater than expected +0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) last month, which has had the effect of lifting the YoY rate one-tenth to +2.3%. Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate edged up one-tenth to 63.0% (highest in two years) which was seen as causing the U-3 unemployment rate to nudge up one-tenth to 5.0%. There was also no change in average weekly hours worked at 34.4hrs after expectations had been for a slight increase.

Away from the employment numbers, the March ISM manufacturing print rose a better than expected 2.3pts last month to 51.8 (vs. 51.0 expected) which is the first reading greater than 50 since August last year. New orders (+6.8pts to 58.3) were a big standout in the data with that index alone at the highest level since November 2014. That said there was a slightly softer employment component in the data which was also evident in the payrolls data for the sector. It’s worth noting that tomorrow will see the confirmation of the March non-manufacturing index reading which is expected to rise to 54.1. Should that be the case, then the spread between the two last month of 2.3pts would be the least since December 2014 (when the spread was 2pts). Meanwhile, also of note on Friday was an upward revision to the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment print last month by 1pt to 91.0. The manufacturing PMI was also nudged up 0.1pts in the final read to 51.5, however there was less good news in the construction spending numbers in February when spending was said to have decreased -0.5% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). Finally, towards to the end of Friday we also saw some disappointment in the latest US vehicle sales numbers where sales were said to have fallen back to 16.5m saar in March from 17.4m in the prior month (expectations had been for little change). While the early Easter holiday period played a part, vehicle sales have now been in a downward trend since the recent high in October last year.

In terms of the price action, risk markets had initially weakened post the flow of economic data on Friday but that was quickly reversed and markets traded firmer right up until the closing the bell. The S&P 500 eventually finished with a +0.63% gain to kick off the new month which means the index gained +1.81% over the past week. Credit markets also had a strong session on Friday with CDX IG closing 3bps tighter. The Dollar was volatile but ultimately ended up flat on Friday which means the Dollar index was down a steep 1.72% last week, the second worst week this year. US Treasuries also chopped around but the end result being little change with the benchmark 10y currently sitting at 1.765% this morning. Comments from the Fed’s Mester added little to the recent debate with the Cleveland Fed President suggesting that she sees the US economy as evolving in a way that would mean rate hikes are appropriate this year, but refusing to comment on her thoughts on potential timing.

Interestingly, the moves for risk assets in the US on Friday came despite the backdrop of a steep leg lower for Oil markets. WTI ended the week with a -4.04% loss on Friday to close at $36.79/bbl (and is down further this morning) which is the lowest closing price since March 3rd. In fact prices are now down close to 15% from their highs of last month and ahead of the upcoming meeting between producers in Doha on the 17th of April, for which expectations of a positive outcome appear to diminishing quickly. Friday’s move seemingly came about on the back of comments from Saudi Arabia’s deputy Crown Prince who said that the nation will only freeze output should Iran follow suit. This of course comes following the remarks from Iran’s oil minister who downplayed the possibility of the nation freezing current production levels.

Those declines for Oil on Friday weighed most heavily on European equity markets where we saw the Stoxx 600 tumble -1.30%, despite a late effort to bounceback into the close. That concluded a third consecutive weekly decline for the index. Prior to that we had seen some supportive manufacturing PMI numbers in the region with the Euro area print in particular revised up 0.2pts at the final read to 51.6.

As usual we’ll also be keeping a close eye on the latest chatter out of Fed officials. Kashkari and Evans are due to speak on Tuesday with Mester on Wednesday. We then hear from Kaplan early on Thursday before Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak in a discussion with Bernanke, Greenspan and Volcker on Thursday evening. The Fed’s George will speak on Friday. Over at the ECB we’ll hear from Praet and Constancio during the week, as well as ECB President Draghi on Thursday at a presentation in Lisbon.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1N4PVIt Tyler Durden

Hiding from Opportunity

 

 

 

 

Hiding from Opportunity

Posted with permission and written by Jeff Thomas (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

Hiding from Opportunity - Jeff Thomas

 

 

 

“Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness.” – Alejandro Jodorowsky 

 

As a consultant on internationalisation, I regularly have occasion to advise people on the finer points of safeguarding their wealth and themselves from becoming casualties of declining governments.

It’s no secret that such governments have a decided inclination to legislate rapacious controls over their citizens, in the form of taxation, capital controls, confiscation and limitation over expatriation to less Orwellian jurisdictions.

In most cases, those seeking consultation have either already begun expatriating their wealth and/or themselves, or have made the decision to do so and are in the process of identifying those jurisdictions that may benefit them most. As such, they’re taking positive action to avail themselves of opportunitiesoutside their home jurisdictions.

However far along in the process one of them might be when they come to me, they’ve already gotten over the greatest obstacle – their own reluctance to decide to take action. Having done so, they’re already on the road to an improved life. Some will make better choices than others; some will succeed better than others; however, all will fare better than they would have, had they simply ignored the need to internationalise.

But, then we have the fellow in the photo above. He represents those who (often vehemently) claim that internationalisation is a useless pursuit, for one reason or another. I regret to comment that he and others like him far outnumber those who choose to take internationalisation action.


Introducing Homo Struthio

The Latin name for humans is Homo sapiens, which means, “man intelligent.” Since this may not be an appropriate appellation for the fellow above, we might instead call him, “Homo struthio”, the Latin for “man ostrich”.

And, in fact, I encounter Homo struthio often, but not as people who are already internationalising themselves. Usually their contact is in the form of emails, after having read my writings. Almost invariably, they take strong exception to any possibility that internationalisation effort might be beneficial. In reading their comments, I’ve gleaned some common attributes in them.

Homo struthio rarely ventures far from home. If he goes abroad at all, it’s likely that he does so as a tourist. You may have seen him at one time or another – staying at the American Marriott in Hong Kong, or ordering a viertel pfunder mit Käse (quarter pounder with cheese) in a McDonalds in Munich.

Homo struthio does his best to remain within the confines of the familiar. This may be out of habit, or fear that he’ll have a negative experience, but, in many cases, he’ll actually believe that his home country is the best one and that deviation from his home-country standard is almost certain to be a mistake.

 

We may see him as an English cruise-shipper in Majorca, complaining that there’s no Fullers London Pride on tap at the local cantina. Or he might be an American in Jamaica, receiving a bill for JMD $600 for a rum punch and asking, “How much is that in real money?” (This choice of phrasing not only occurs, but is common.)

 

But the point here is not to pick on either the UK or the US, or their people. The point is that, there are those countries where people have commonly become more insulated than in others – more likely to assume that anything outside of their home country is likely to be suspect, if not downright undesirable.

 

Returning to those responses mentioned above, here are a few of the most common reasons given by those who have either not travelled, or whose travels have been limited and they’ve concluded that internationalisation is folly:

 

“Yes, our economy is teetering on the edge of collapse, but what can you do? It’s the same all over.”

 

This is definitively incorrect. Many countries operate almost entirely independently from the EU, US, etc. and will be unaffected if crashes occur in those jurisdictions, just as they’re unaffected by present developments.

 

Further, there are other countries that do better each time the EU or US worsens. The reason is that, every time more money, industry or brainpower leaves those jurisdictions, it goes elsewhere, enriching the target country. (Historically, whenever some countries decline, others invariably rise.)

 

“My country is the most powerful one on earth. There’s no point in escaping to another country, since our military could squash that country like a bug.”

 

This is a common comment from people in the US, and Americans are indeed taught by their government and media that the US is all-powerful. But, the US has shown that it cannot seem to win in any of the countries it has invaded in recent decades, let alone take on more warfare successfully. (In Afghanistan, America’s longest war ever, the US has achieved virtually no progress against rag-tag groups of poorly-armed, poorly-trained sheepherders after some fifteen years and nearly one trillion dollars spent.)

 

Further, many of the countries that are doing well are allies of the US and the US is unlikely to invade them for the crime of being freer and more prosperous than the US.

 

“We’re very worried about the loss of rights we’re experiencing, but what if we try to leave and we’re not allowed to go?”

 

This question is becoming increasingly common. It’s also quite disturbing, as it suggests that the home country is increasingly threatening the freedom of movement of its people in an effort to trap them in. Whenever a country does this, it’s a sure sign that it would be better to exit sooner, rather than to attempt it later and possibly fail to escape.

 

“I’d never leave here. This is still the best country in the world.”

 

This observation, of course, is subjective. If someone perceives his home county to be the best one in the world, he most certainly should remain there. However, this comment is most often received from those who have not travelled much and therefore have no real understanding of the many opportunities that exist outside their home countries. In most cases, it’s a blind assumption, rather than an informed appraisal.

 

All the above arguments (and many more), which ensure a greater risk of loss of wealth and freedom at the hands of your home country, are flimsy at best, yet countless people throughout the EU, US, Canada and other declining countries stand firmly behind them, when the alternative of internationalisation is offered.

 

Not long ago, a friend of mind died of cancer. For years, whenever mutual friends would mention that they’d had a recent check-up, he would say, “I never go to doctors. Whatever they say is going to be bad news and I don’t want to hear it.” That position cost him his life. It could be said that this is another example of Homo Struthio logic, since he, too, avoided the pursuit of a solution to a problem until it became insurmountable.

 

Whenever we find ourselves taking a stubborn stand against the pursuit of opportunity, it’s likely to be because we simply don’t want to face the fact that we may well be facing a significant problem in the future. We don’t wish to say to ourselves, “I know I’m wrong, but I’m just going to shove my head in the sand.” We don’t want to have to admit that we may be being extremely foolish and short-sighted, so we justify our decision to ourselves by off-handedly discrediting the solution, and then, try not to think of it any further.

 

Whether it’s a question of saving our lives from a dreaded disease, or saving our wealth and freedom, the outcome will likely be better if we behave as Homo sapiens, rather than Homo Struthio.

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

Hiding from Opportunity

Posted with permission and written by Jeff Thomas (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

Jeff Thomas is British and resides in the Caribbean. The son of an economist and historian, he learned early to be distrustful of governments as a general principle. Although he spent his career creating and developing businesses, for eight years, he penned a weekly newspaper column on the theme of limiting government. He began his study of economics around 1990, learning initially from Sir John Templeton, then Harry Schulz and Doug Casey and later others of an Austrian persuasion. He is now a regular feature writer for Casey Research’s International Man and Strategic Wealth Preservation in the Cayman Islands.

 

 


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UPl7U9 Sprott Money

8 Reasons 9/11 Could NOT Have Been An Inside Job

Below, we'll show that 9/11 could NOT have been an inside job …

I. The 9/11 Commission and Congressional Investigation Into 9/11 All Disproved Any Conspiracy

9/11 was thoroughly and exhaustively investigated by the 9/11 Commission, Congress and U.S. scientific agencies.

This horse has already been beat to death, and anyone who raises questions is a nutjob.

True, the 9/11 Commission didn't believe that the government told the truth about 9/11,  and said the government obstructed their investigation.

For example:

  • The Commission’s co-chairs said that the CIA (and likely the White House) “obstructed our investigation”
  • The Senior Counsel to the 9/11 Commission (John Farmer) – who led the 9/11 staff’s inquiry – said “At some level of the government, at some point in time…there was an agreement not to tell the truth about what happened“. He also said “I was shocked at how different the truth was from the way it was described …. The tapes told a radically different story from what had been told to us and the public for two years…. This is not spin. This is not true.”

Some examples of obstruction of justice into the 9/11 investigation include:

  • An FBI informant hosted and rented a room to two hijackers in 2000. Specifically, investigators for the Congressional Joint Inquiry discovered that an FBI informant had hosted and even rented a room to two hijackers in 2000 and that, when the Inquiry sought to interview the informant, the FBI refused outright, and then hid him in an unknown location, and that a high-level FBI official stated these blocking maneuvers were undertaken under orders from the White House. As the New York Times notes:

Senator Bob Graham, the Florida Democrat who is a former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, accused the White House on Tuesday of covering up evidence ….The accusation stems from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s refusal to allow investigators for a Congressional inquiry and the independent Sept. 11 commission to interview an informant, Abdussattar Shaikh, who had been the landlord in San Diego of two Sept. 11 hijackers.

  • The chairs of both the 9/11 Commission and the Official Congressional Inquiry into 9/11 said that Soviet-style government “minders” obstructed the investigation into 9/11 by intimidating witnesses (and see this)
  • The 9/11 Commissioners concluded that officials from the Pentagon lied to the Commission, and considered recommending criminal charges for such false statements
  • As reported by ACLU, FireDogLake, RawStory and many others, declassified documents shows that Senior Bush administration officials sternly cautioned the 9/11 Commission against probing too deeply into the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001

The CIA also videotaped the interrogation of 9/11 suspects, falsely told the 9/11 Commission that there were no videotapes or other records of the interrogations, and then illegally destroyed all of the tapes and transcripts of the interrogations.

9/11 Commission co-chairs Thomas Keane and Lee Hamilton wrote:

Those who knew about those videotapes — and did not tell us about them — obstructed our investigation.

The chief lawyer for Guantanamo litigation – Vijay Padmanabhan – said that torture of 9/11 suspects was widespread.

And Susan J. Crawford – the senior Pentagon official overseeing the military commissions at Guantánamo told Bob Woodward:

We tortured Qahtani. His treatment met the legal definition of torture.

Indeed, some of the main sources of information were tortured right up to the point of death.

Moreover, the type of torture used by the U.S. on the Guantanamo suspects is of a special type. Senator Levin revealed that the the U.S. used Communist torture techniques specifically aimed at creating false confessions. (and see this, this, this and this).

And according to NBC News:

  • Much of the 9/11 Commission Report was based upon the testimony of people who were tortured
  • At least four of the people whose interrogation figured in the 9/11 Commission Report have claimed that they told interrogators information as a way to stop being “tortured”
  • One of the Commission’s main sources of information was tortured until he agreed to sign a confession that he was NOT EVEN ALLOWED TO READ
  • The 9/11 Commission itself doubted the accuracy of the torture confessions, and yet kept their doubts to themselves

Indeed, the Co-Chair of the congressional investigation into 9/11 (Bob Graham)  and 9/11 Commissioner and former Senator Bob Kerrey are calling for either a “PERMANENT 9/11 commission” or a NEW 9/11 investigation to get to the bottom of it.

But hey … nothing's perfect.  We should just let bygones be bygones.

II. No One Could Have Foreseen 9/11

No one could have foreseen the diabolical 9/11 plan.    After all, America has not been directly attacked for centuries.

And crashing planes into buildings?  No one could have imagined such an out-of-the-blue attack.

True, overwhelming evidence shows that 9/11 was foreseeable.  And Al Qaeda crashing planes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon was itself foreseeable. (even the chair of the 9/11 Commission said that the attack was preventable).

And a top NSA whistleblower says that the NSA had all of the information it needed prior to 9/11 to stop the attacks. The only reason NSA didn’t share that information with other agencies is because of corruption … in an effort to consolidate power. And widespread spying by the U.S. government on Americans began before 9/11 (confirmed here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here). And the government tapped the 9/11 hijackers’ phones, and heard the 9/11 hijackers’ plans from their own mouths.

But our government officials were busy at the time … and maybe they just took their eyes of the ball.

Anyway, knowing it could happen doesn't mean that they let it happen on purpose.

III. They Didn't Have Time to Stop It

Even when government officials realized what was happening, they didn't have time to react and stop it.

After all, the hijacked planes were being flown hundreds of miles an hour.  And by the time our government and military men knew what was happening, it was all over.

True, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) – responsible for intercepting errant aircraft over the U.S. – has a standard operating procedure for scrambling planes for interception which takes only a few minutes.

NORAD regularly and successfully scrambled fighter jets in response to suspicious or unidentified aircraft flying in US airspace in the years preceding 9/11.  See this report from the General Accounting Office and this article from AP.  To do this, NORAD keeps a pair of fighters on “alert” at sites around the U.S. These fighters are fueled, armed, and ready to take off within minutes of receiving a scramble order. See these reports from American Defender, Air Force Magazine, Bergen Record, 12/5/2003 and The First 600 Days of Combat (page 14).

For example, NORAD scrambled:

  • Between 1990 and 1994, NORAD scrambled 1,518 fighter jets (page 4)
  • Between 1996 and 1998, NORAD’s Western Air Defense Sector scrambled fighters 129 times to identify unknown aircraft that might be a threat, and 42 times against potential and actual drug smugglers
  • In 1997, NORAD's Southeast Air Defense Sector tracked 427 unidentified aircraft, and fighters intercepted these “unknowns” 36 times. The same year, NORAD’s Northeast Air Defense Sector handled 65 unidentified tracks and the Western Air Defense Sector handles 104 unidentified tracks
  • In 1998, the Southeast Air Defense Sector logged more than 400 fighter scrambles
  • In 1999, NORAD’s fighters at a single base – Homestead Air Reserve Base in Florida – scrambled 75 times per year, on average
  • In 2000, NORAD’s fighters fly 147 intercept missions
  • And between September 2000 and June 2001, NORAD flew 67 intercepts

Yet, on September 11th, they failed to do their job 4 times in a single day:

You might think that the military couldn't find the hijacked planes because the hijackers turned off the transponders. However, a former air traffic controller, who knows the flight corridor which the two planes which hit the Twin Towers flew "like the back of my hand" and who handled two actual hijackings says that planes can be tracked on radar even when their transponders are turned off (also, listen to this interview).

The Director of the American U.S. "Star Wars" space defense program in both Republican and Democratic administrations, who was a senior air force colonel who flew 101 combat missions (Col. Robert Bowman) said:

If our government had merely [done] nothing, and I say that as an old interceptor pilot—I know the drill, I know what it takes, I know how long it takes, I know what the procedures are, I know what they were, and I know what they’ve changed them to—if our government had merely done nothing, and allowed normal procedures to happen on that morning of 9/11, the Twin Towers would still be standing and thousands of dead Americans would still be alive. [T]hat is treason!

U.S. Army Air Defense Officer and NORAD Tac Director, decorated with the Purple Heart, the Bronze Star and the Soldiers Medal (Capt. Daniel Davis) stated:

There is no way that an aircraft . . . would not be intercepted when they deviate from their flight plan, turn off their transponders, or stop communication with Air Traffic Control … Attempts to obscure facts by calling them a 'conspiracy Theory' does not change the truth. It seems, 'Something is rotten in the State.'

NORAD's actions on 9/11 were so odd that it was forced to give 3 entirely different versions of what happened that day, as each previous version has been exposed as false. When someone repeatedly changes his testimony after being caught in lies, how believable is he?  The falsity of NORAD's explanations were so severe that even the 9/11 Commission considered recommending criminal charges for the making of false statements.

But hey, they probably just had an off day.

IV. No One Could Keep Such a Big Conspiracy Secret … Someone Would Have Spilled the Beans

If Americans were somehow involved in letting 9/11 occur, someone would have talked.

Some jerk would have had too much to drink, and bragged about his dastardly deed at a bar.

True, military analyst and Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg said: “Secrets … can be kept reliably … for decades … even though they are known to THOUSANDS of insiders.”

And many other huge projects involving many thousands of people were kept secret for many years.

But that can't be true for 9/11  (even though government officials say that 9/11 was state -sponsored terrorism).

V. Our Government Wouldn't DO Something Like That

Third, there's no way government officials, military or intelligence personnel – who are sworn to protect and defend America – would do something like that!

True, the U.S. government officials have admitted that they've repeatedly carried out false flag attacks.

But 9/11 was obviously different.

VI. But the Whole Controlled Demolition Thing Is Bullshit

Whatever you else you may think, the whole "bombs took down the Twin Towers" thing is bullshit.

True, the collapse of the third World Trade Center skyscraper on 9/11 – one that was never hit with a plane – makes no sense. But that building, World Trade Center 7, is not one of the Twin Towers.

And admittedly, thousands of  engineers and architects and scientists (and see this) think that the Twin Towers themselves may well have been brought down with high-tech explosives.

But they're obviously all high on drugs.

VIII. You Don't Want to Be Labeled As Crazy (Or Worse) … Do You?

If – after reading the 6 facts above – you still question 9/11, then you might need a friendly warning …

If you don't knock it off, you might be labeled crazy … or a terrorist.

After all, we've got to censor those darn conspiracy theories.

We hope that the above-described essay disproves – once and for all – all of the crazy theories going around the Intertubes, and that everyone will shut up once and for all about 9/11.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UP0CqU George Washington

How Bad Would A Nuclear Terror Attack Be: Find Out With This Interactive Nukemap

By Keturah Hetrick of Defense One

How Bad Would A Radiological Terror Attack Be?

When it comes to human health, all nuclear scenarios are not created equal. The Chernobyl disaster caused an estimated 16,000 cases of thyroid cancer, while the Fukushima power plant accident barely produced any. A dizzying number of variables go into understanding the damage that a particular nuclear or radiological device might have. But modeling the effects of such devices has become also become easier, and more public, thanks to the Internet.

It’s “no secret” that organizations like Al-Qaeda and ISIS “are interested in securing nuclear materials so they can use them for terrorist attacks,” Dr. Timothy Jorgensen, a professor of radiation medicine at Georgetown University and the author of Strange Glow: The Story of Radiation, told an audience at the Center for Strategic International Studies on Monday.

How might we be able to predict the effect of a particular attack? The type and size of bomb, materials used, detonation from the air versus ground, population density, and even wind can help us to predict increases in cancer risk, deaths from a bomb’s blast, and the timing of deaths from radiation sickness.

“The distribution of doses within the population determine the survivors,” says Jorgensen. “You can predict the type and severity of health consequences by just knowing the doses among individuals.”

Our bodies absorb radiation through the course of normal life experiences. For example, we absorb 3.0 millisieverts (a common measurement of the body’s radiation absorption, abbreviated as mSv) from a single mammogram. Eating 1,000 bananas adds another 0.1 mSv to our bodies. (Bananas, like all potassium-rich foods, contain very small amounts of radioactive material.)

Of course, our bodies absorb far more radiation if we’re near a more-potent source, like an atomic bomb explosion or power plant accident.

At 1,000 mSv, radiation sickness sets in as cells begin to die. Symptoms include spontaneous bleeding, ulcerated organs, and skin that sloughs off. But, you will likely recover, with only a somewhat higher chance of developing cancer later in life.

About half of a population that receives a 5,000-mSv dose will die. This point is known as the Lethal Dose 50 (LD50).

Doses above 10,000 mSv cause gastrointestinal (GI) syndrome, leaving the afflicted with less than two weeks to live. Above 50,000 mSv, brain swelling causes Central Nervous System (CNS) syndrome. Death will come in hours.

Currently, there’s no treatment for CNS syndromes. According to Jorgensen, treatment for CNS “wouldn’t make much sense” because of GI syndrome’s imminence.

In a normal distribution of radiation doses, that leaves a small number of treatable victims.

Unfortunately, our abilities to treat victims within that range haven’t improved much. Most deaths from the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima were caused by fires or the detonation’s blast, and less than 10 percent of total deaths fell within the treatable range. If the Hiroshima bombing occurred today, we would be able to reduce the number of deaths by only 5 percent, Jorgensen says.

Dirty Bombs

Reports show that last week’s Brussels attackers are among many ISIS affiliates pursuing dirty bombs, renewing fears about the group’s nuclear ambitions.

Dirty bombs, also known as radiological dispersal devices (RDDs), aren’t actually nuclear weapons. Though they distribute a small amount of radioactive material upon detonation, their blast is far deadlier, and most people exposed to the radioactive blast wouldn’t receive a lethal dose.

According to a recent report from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a dirty bomb “would not cause catastrophic levels of death and injury” but “could leave billions of dollars of damage due to the costs of evacuation, relocation, and cleanup,” contributing to the weapons’ reputation as “weapons of mass disruption.”

“Recent reports out of Iraq warn that Islamic State extremists may have already stolen enough material to build a [dirty] bomb that could contaminate major portions of a city and cost billions of dollars in damage,” the report states.

Experts agree that terrorists are more likely to use a dirty bomb than other radioactive devices because dirty bombs are less technically complicated to build and require materials that are relatively easy to obtain.

INDs

While experts believe that terrorist groups are more likely to use dirty bombs, uranium-based improvised nuclear devices (INDs) aren’t out of the question. But all INDs, which Jorgensen describes as “homemade atomic bomb[s],” are not alike.

Ground detonations and air blasts result in different casualties. Terrorists are more likely to detonate an IND from the ground, rather than dropping it from a plane. This kind of blast would cause a greater amount of fallout, which increases radiation exposure and thus, health risk.

If a terrorist group were to detonate a 15-kiloton nuclear bomb (the size of the Hiroshima bomb, considered a plausible size for a terrorist group to build or obtain), the radius for radiation sickness deaths and the radius for deaths from the blast would be about the same size.

Interestingly, the more energy that an explosion releases, the percentage of people who die from percussive blasts increases, while the percentage who die from radiation sickness decreases. That information helps us to predict deaths from the percussive blast versus deaths from radiation—and to better predict the proportion of the population who might be treatable.

If a 50-kiloton bomb were detonated over a civilian population, radiation sickness wouldn’t kill anyone – because anyone close enough for a lethal dose would already have been killed by the blast.

But energy output and altitude are far from the only variables that help us to forecast a nuclear bomb’s health impact.

Enter the Nuke Map, a project from nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein. The interactive map lets you plug in variables to see the outcome of various nuclear bomb scenarios.

For example, a 15-kiloton nuclear bomb (the size of the Hiroshima bomb, considered a plausible size for a terrorist group to obtain) dropped from a plane on downtown Washington, D.C. would leave hundreds of thousands of casualties within city limits. That same bomb set off at ground level would result in fewer immediate casualties—but fallout that extended for miles, due to the region’s northeast winds, Jorgensen explained.

And, even at non-lethal doses, radiation exposure introduces myriad concerns: How far away from the detonation site does cancer risk increase? Is it worth the risk to evacuate hospital and nursing home residents? When is it safe for displaced residents to return home?

According to Jorgensen, the best way to answer these questions later is public education now. “People… can’t even discuss the topic because they don’t know the difference between radiation and radioactivity dose. They need to have at least that much information to be engaged in the process,” he says. “We, as public health officials, should do a much better job at bringing this message to the public.”

The interactive Nukemap can be accessed below:


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1S0jrAo Tyler Durden

Key U.S. Events In The Coming Week

Key economic releases for the coming week include the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. Fed Chair Yellen will take part in a discussion with former Fed Chairs on Thursday.

Monday, April 4

10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS -2.1%, consensus -1.8%, last +1.6%)

  • Factory orders likely declined in February following a 1.6% gain in January. Falling factory orders would reflect the weaker-than-expected durable goods report for February.

09:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will speak about economic and cybersecurity risks at the Boston Fed’s cybersecurity conference. In February, Rosengren noted that “if inflation is slower to return to target, monetary policy normalization should be unhurried. A more gradual approach is an appropriate response to headwinds from abroad that slow exports, and financial volatility that raises the cost of funds to many firms.”

07:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will hold a town hall meeting on ‘too big to fail’. There will be Q&A beforehand at 5:15 PM. The newly appointed President Kashkari has said little in public regarding his views on monetary policy.

Tuesday, April 5

01:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Last week, President Evans discussed the “asymmetric” risks facing the US economy, noting that “we should buy some insurance against unexpected weakness by accepting a somewhat higher likelihood of stronger outcomes. Translated into monetary policy, this means being more accommodative than usual to provide an extra boost to aggregate demand as a buffer against possible future downside shocks that might otherwise drive us back to the effective lower bound.”

08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$46.0bn, consensus -$46.2bn, last -$45.7bn)

  • The new advanced goods trade report showed a slightly wider goods deficit in February (-$62.9bn from -$62.4bn), reflecting a widening trade balance across foods & beverages, capital goods, and consumer goods. We expect the services balance to be little changed in February. Overall, we expect the total trade deficit to be -$46.0bn.

10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, March (GS 54.6, consensus 54.1, last 53.4)

  • Service sector surveys improved in March. The Philly Fed (+10.3pt to +13.9), Richmond Fed (+11pt to +9), and New York Fed (+23.7pt to +12.6) indices all rose (the New York survey is a relatively new and not seasonally adjusted series). The Markit Services PMI also rose (+1.3pt to 51.0), escaping contractionary levels. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell by 0.1pt last month.

Wednesday, April 6

12:20 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Cleveland Association for Business Economics, CFA Society Cleveland, and Risk Management Association of Northern Ohio. Last week, President Mester stated, “Given actual and expected economic performance, the risks around the outlook, and the progress toward our policy goals, my assessment at this time is that it will be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the degree of accommodation this year. Gradual normalization means that monetary policy will remain accommodative for some time to come, providing support to the economy and insurance against downside risks.”

02:00 PM Minutes from the March 15-16 FOMC meeting

  • Fed officials indicated a more cautious approach to the near-term policy outlook at the March FOMC meeting, a message that was reinforced during last week’s speech by Chair Yellen. In the minutes, we will be watching for (1) any additional signs that the committee is embracing a “risk management” approach for monetary policy, (2) further details around the committee’s view on growth headwinds stemming from abroad, (3) the committee’s assessment of the balance of risks to the economic outlook, and (4) any views regarding the recent acceleration in core inflation.

08:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Kaplan speaks on a moderated panel at the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth. Last month, President Kaplan said that “the Fed needs to show patience in decisions to remove accommodation”.

Thursday, April 7

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 2 (consensus 270k, last 276k)

Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 26 (consensus 2,170k, last 2,173k)

  • Consensus expects initial jobless claims to edge down to 270k. Initial claims moved up last week, although we suspect some of the rise may be due to seasonal effects stemming from the Good Friday holiday.

05:30 PM Fed Chair Yellen speaks

  • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will take part in a discussion with former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Paul Volcker at an event hosted by International House. Last week, Chair Yellen acknowledged that core inflation had risen “somewhat more than my expectation in December,” but said “it is too early to tell if this recent faster pace will prove durable”.

08:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will speak about the U.S. economy. Q&A is expected. At the March FOMC, President George dissented, citing her preference to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.

Friday, April 8

10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, February (consensus -0.2%, last +0.2%)

  • Consensus expects wholesale inventories to decrease slightly in January.

Source: GS


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1UOqN0L Tyler Durden

Presenting The Mossack Fonseca Interactive Web Of Secret Companies (And All Available Source Files)

Even though, as we said in our previous post, the starting role in today’s record document leak should be that of Mossack Fonseca (and its heir apparent, Rothschild, operating out of Reno, NV) the general population is far more curious to learn which names will emerge as a result of this historic crackdown involving 11 million documents and 2,600 gigabytes of data.

And while the full disclosure effort will take months, if not years, here courtesy of Fusion, is a data map of the intersection between clients, shareholders, companies and agents who have used Mossack Fonseca’s services.

From Fusion: “the map represents just over a third of all the data we have access to through the leak. We’ve chosen to show you 115,373 of the most connected entities so you can see how, in many case, individuals are actually related in some way.

What does that say? It tells us that the people who create shell companies through Mossack Fonseca move in similar circles.

 

You will notice the option to select, “Leticia Montoya”, who is a Mossack Fonseca employee. Through the documents we have connected her with at least 10,000 companies as a stand-in director or shareholder. Ms Montoya earns around $900 a month in the HR department of the company.

 

The other option is to see companies that are in some way connected with the United States.

The Mossack Fonseca Universe:

 

Meanwhile, for those who enjoy primary data, the full universe of currently available source documents is available at the following link. Based on a recent Wikileaks tweet, more may be becoming available soon.


via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1pYbrt9 Tyler Durden