A World Drowning In Fatties: 1.5 Billion Of The World's Adults – One In Three – Are Obese Or Overweight

While it will hardly come as a surprise that in the age of pervasive, accessible and cheap pink slime fast food, more people than ever are obese, the actual numbers may be a shock to most. Conveniently, quantifying the world’s obesity epidemic is precisely what the London-based Overseas Development Institute has done with a just released report titled Future Diets (pdf link). Its findings are stunning: more than a third of all adults in the world – 1.46 billion to be exact – are obese or overweight.



The main culprit: the development world, where the number of obese has nearly quadrupled from 250 million to 904 million between 1980 and 2008. What this means for the world’s soaring healthcare costs needs little explanation: “On current trends, globally, we will see a huge increase in the number of people suffering certain types of cancer, diabetes, strokes and heart attacks, putting an enormous burden on public healthcare systems.” according to the co-author of the Future Diets report. That’s ok, the already insolvent world, drowning in record debt, obviously can afford to spend even more on a record population of fatties.

AFP summarizes the report’s main findings:

The study said the rise in obesity was down to diets changing in developing countries where incomes were rising, with people shifting away from cereals and tubers to eating more meat, fats and sugar. The overconsumption of food, coupled with increasingly sedentary lives, was also to blame. The report said there seemed to be little will among the public and leaders to take action on influencing diet in the future.

 

“Governments have focused on public awareness campaigns, but evidence shows this is not enough,” said Wiggins.

 

“The lack of action stands in stark contrast to the concerted public actions taken to limit smoking in developed countries.

 

“Politicians need to be less shy about trying to influence what food ends up on our plates. The challenge is to make healthy diets viable whilst reducing the appeal of foods which carry a less certain nutritional value.”

Below are the report’s key findings straight from the horse’s mouth:

  • Over one third of all adults across the world – 1.46 billion people – are obese or overweight. Between 1980 and 2008, the numbers of people affected in the developing world more than tripled, from 250 million to 904 million. In high-income countries the numbers increased by 1.7 times over the same period.
  • Diets are changing wherever incomes are rising in the developing world, with a marked shift from cereals and tubers to meat, fats and sugar, as well as fruit and vegetables.
  • While the forces of globalisation have led to a creeping homogenisation in diets, their continued variation suggests that there is still scope for policies that can influence the food choices that people make.
  • Future diets that are rich in animal products, especially meat, will push up prices for meat, but surprisingly, not for grains. This suggests that future diets may matter more for public health than for agriculture.
  • There seems to be little will among public and leaders to take the determined action that is needed to influence future diets, but that may change in the face of the serious health implications. Combinations of moderate measures in education, prices and regulation may achieve far more than drastic action of any one type.

Some other pretty charts from the report:

So, in other words, as long as the overweight world can eat its cake, and have others pay for the diabetes medication fees, all is well. However, once this too unsustainable ponzi scheme ends, run. Or at least jog casually away, because one doesn’t have to outrun everyone… just the fattest. And there are a lot of those around.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/rPJTaa7XtjU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Stocks Fade To Red As Oil Dumps And Gold Jumps

As Europe closes, the ‘recovery’ in US equities has faded to red for the majors (though Trannies and all the high-beta momos are still in the green thanks to JPY just not wanting the party to stop – for now) seeimngly led by AAPL’s plunge to its 50DMA. This morning’s jerk higher appears as much about BTFD catch up for Trannies than anything else. Bonds sold off modestly but the USD continues to surge (led by EUR weakness after ugly loan creation data). WTI crude (and Brent) is tumbling further – back at $94.50 – but gold is surging back to yesterday’s highs at around $1236. VIX is stable for now around 14% as stocks rotate back to play catch-down.

 

VIX is stable as stocks catch back down to it…

 

S&P 500 futures rallied to previous support and faded back quickly….

 

But gold keeps pushing higher as Oil tumbles…

 

It appears the high-beta BTFD-ers were in early but are fading now…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4d9_jEQFSc8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Future of Money: A Matter of Functions Four, a Medium, a Measure, a Standard, a Store!

So, what is money? According to Wikipedia

Money is any object or record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given socio-economic context or country. The main functions of money are distinguished as: a medium of exchange; a unit of account; a store of value; and, occasionally in the past, a standard of deferred payment. Any kind of object or secure verifiable record that fulfills these functions can be considered money.

When currency is stable, money can serve all four of the functions above. Things get trickier when currencies are not stable. If we were all to be honest with ourselves, we’d have to query, “What fiat currency is truly stable over time?”.

 

When unstable currencies or engineered forms of financial capital are brought into play the fourth aspect of defined money (and the least addressed) gains significantly in importance. Here we must differentiate and distinguish between true capital (economic capital) which comprises physical goods that explicitly and directly assist in the production of other goods and services, e.g. hammers for carpenters, paintbrushes for painters, wrenches for plumbers, tooling for factories, etc., and financial capital. Financial capital is funds provided by lenders and/or investors to businesses and entrepeneurs to purchase economic capital (ie.equipment) for producing real goods and services.

To explain why the 4th aspect of money’s definition is important, yet often and in my opinion purposely ignored, let’s examine the three concepts of capital maintenance in terms of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS): (1) Physical capital maintenance (2) Financial capital maintenance in nominal monetary units (3) Financial capital maintenance in units of constant purchasing power.

  1. Physical (economic) capital – We have covered already.
  2. Financial capital in monetary units is best described as basic accounting. It’s how most financial reporting is done in the states (and in Europe). It fails to take into consideration the constant destruction of value of the fiat currencies, an aspect of the definition of money that is a foundation of money itself!
  3. Financial capital measured in constant purchasing power – something that effectively never happens. It is the “Real” value of money, adjusted for destructive aspects, ex. inflation, particularly purposeful inflation brought upon by a banking system that attempts to adjust and control the prices of goods and services for its own end (as opposed to the end that will benefit the masses) through the artificial manipulation of the value of the means of exchange, the currency.

Financial capital is provided by lenders for a price, commonly known as interest. This  price to attain financial capital is not the only cost though, for the price of the financial capital provided by lenders through things such as debt does not take into account the cost of currency maintenance destruction, or the purposeful manipulation of the currency value by the lender or lending system to which the lender belongs to to further its own means. This is why the prudent may wish to identify a single standard of deferred payment to avoid purposeful manipulation (otherwise known as cheating) by transacting in a denominator of debt that the participant believes to be dropping in value, ie. fiat currency!

Relation to debt-based society

A debt in any form is essentially a deferred payment. The fourth definintion of money, standard of deferred payment,  is usually what the debts are denominated in. The value of any and all money – including the most liquid and deep, ex. dollars or euros, or the oldest and revered, ex. gold and silver, or the newest and least understood, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies – may fluctuate over time via inflation and deflation and often through direct manipulation and unforeseen results that stem from the same. The value of deferred payments (the real level of debt) likewise fluctuates.

Money, as Leading Economists Such As Paul Krugman Appear To Know It, Is Obsolete – There’s a New Sheriff In Town

The definitions of money mentioned above are predicated upon the assumption that money must be dumb! What I mean by this is that money was defined in a time when the store of value was an inanimante object designed to represent a simple binary concept of buy or sell, that had no abilities other than to look or appear as if it had the value believingly bestowed upon it by society – or at least two of the participants in a particular transaction. What if money in this digital day and age was smart? What if money was able to do things besides just sit there and be called money?

Here’s an example…

Historically, and up until now, deferred payment was/is based on enforceability of debts and rule of law. The rule of law, particularly engagement within the legal system is destructively expensive, time consuming and essentially the antithesis of friction free commerce, ex. capitalism. The rule of law is generally not relied upon when debts are unlikely to be collectable. For illegal transactions, or for low or zero trust transactions, gold or diamonds may be preferred as the medium of exchange and in those circumstaces there is no recourse in case of counterfeit currency (bogus, bank peddeled Mortgage Backed Securities, fake US dollars, etc.) is being used. — and there is rarely any deferral of payment: if there is, it will most likely be stated in dollars – which brings us back to where we started.

What if currency was smart enough to act upon a predetermined set of parameters, even after being released to the payee? What if trust never had to be a factor in negotiation fo payment, even in a negative trust environment? What if the highly ineffecient legal system could be wholly avoided in the risk/reward calculation of a monetary transaction? Would the existence of this possibility, in essence, demand a 5th definition for money – intelligence and/or malleability? You see, the cryptographic digital currencies are smart as compared to the dumb dollar or euro, or yen or yuan! It is this intelligent ability to control money during a transaction and even post transaction, the abilty to instruct money to disburse iteslf only open mutual agreement by all parties present, that appears to elude the prominent MSM economists of today. 

Furthermore, dumb money as purely fiat is truly without physical value or utility value as a physical or digital commodity. It derives its value by being declared by a government to be legal tender; that is, it must be accepted as a form of payment within the boundaries of the country, for all debts, public and private – including taxes, where in the US, it is the only currency accepted. Laws in place such as these essentially imbue fiat money with the value of any of the goods and services that it may be traded for within the nation that issues it. The fact remains though, the value of fiat money is held in belief and belief only, enforced by the whims of government. With this being the case, there is no true utility argument to be made for fiat currencies, including the USD.

Digital cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, however, have an implicit edge on the fiat currencies in that its utility (or use value) is dramatically leveraged as compared to fiat because it comes part and parcel with its own, virtually unassailable transmission system. In essence, this means that if Bitcoin, the USD and the EUR were cars, BTC would be the only one that comes with its own international roads open 24/7 that were able to bypass all of the toll roads and bridges, everywhere there was an Internet connection – not to mention power itself with a virtual fuel that was limitless and had no costs. Now, if one were to think of it, such an aspect is so valuable and useful (as in utilitarian) that not only does it qualify for significant use value, but in the very near future one could wonder how the world ever got along without it. Does this mean that a sixth aspect of the definition of money needs to be added – autonomous transferability!

This is why I say there’s a new sheriff in town and the old schoolers whose eyes are not yet open should recognize that the future of money is here!

According to famed economist and NY Times pundit Paul Krugman, “To be successful, money must be both a medium of exchange and a reasonably stable store of value. And it remains completely unclear why BitCoin should be a stable store of value.”

I counter these widely believed assumptions with the fact that the USD, the world’s reserve currency, has not been a stable store of value. As a matter of fact, from its underpinnings (as described in the BoomBustBlog link below) and throughout its history, the dollar has consistently lost its value over time to inflation. Thus, as per Krugman, the USD is not successful!

As per Wikipedia:

To be widely acceptable, a medium of exchange should have stable purchasing power (Value) and therefore it should possess the following characteristics:

  1. Value common assets
  2. Constant utility [I have explained the constant utility of Bitcoin above, a utility which trumps the relatively dumb dollar]
  3. Low cost of preservation [the cost of preservation is a fraction of that of the dollar, with constant reprinting of physical dollars and coins and the power, machinery and labor required to do so; as well as the recircutlation of those new bills, not to mention the destrcution of the old bills]
  4. Transportability [This is moderately difficult with large amounts of physical bills, but much easier with the digital manifestation of those physical bills that most institutions deal with. The mere existence of the banks as necessary intermediaries and middlemen add signficant, and in this day and age of P2P technology, unnecessary costs and frictions and rules. This hampers portability significantly – no transfers on weekends and bank holidays, no low margin business models due to artificially high transaction costs, big up Visa, Mastercard and Paypal!)
  5. Divisibility
  6. High market value in relation to volume and weight [Bitcoin can’t be beat in this regard]
  7. Recognisability
  8. Resistance to counterfeiting [A currency based on cryptography, need I say more?!]

As quoted from the Wikpedia link above:

“fiat money is the root cause of the continuum of economic crises, since it leads to the dominance of fraud, corruption, and manipulation precisely because it does not satisfy the criteria for a medium of exchange cited above. Specifically, prevailing fiat money is free float and depending upon its supply market finds or sets a value to it that continues to change as the supply of money is changed with respect to the economy’s demand. Increasing free floating money supply with respect to needs of the economy reduces the quantity of the basket of the goods and services to which it is linked by the market and that provides it purchasing power. Thus it is not a unit or standard measure of wealth and its manipulation impedes the market mechanism by that it sets/determine just prices. That leads us to a situation where no value-related economic data is just or reliable.[3][4] 

I will continue this missive in part 2 of the series wherein I will announce my efforts in bringing the beneftis of smart money to light. I’m sure these concepts and products will blow your socks off, even if you are an old school economist! For those who don’t follow me, this is who I am. – Who is Reggie Middleton? I believe track record speaks louder than Op-Ed columns, degrees or TV show appearances. Let me know if you agree…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/bfCDK6VLNkw/story01.htm Reggie Middleton

75% Of Spaniards Don’t Believe Rajoy’s “Economic Recovery” Meme

With unemployment stuck at record highs and loan delinquencies surging (as we discussed here, here and here), it is hardly surprising that El Economista reports that more than two-thirds of Spaniards do not believe the “recovery” promised by Prime Minister Rajoy has been created. While Cramer ignorantly confidently espoused this morning that Spain is recovering (and with Spanish stocks and bonds back near pre-crisis levels), a massive 75% of the Spanish people believe their personal situation will be the same or worse in 2014.

 

 

Via El Economista (Google Translate),

The Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, and closed over the 2013 promising that the new year would be the “economic recovery”…. More than two thirds of the Spanish population momentum promised by the leader of the executive is not created.

 

This emerges from a survey released Wednesday by the newspaper El Mundo… a mere 17% trust the recovery next year and 8% estimated that recovery has actually happened in the latter part of 2013.

 

Curious that, in this study by Sigma Dos, to the Popular Party voters distrust the information provided by the Government. 47% of respondents who said they voted in the party believe that the dominant trend for next year is pessimistic and start putting the recovery in 2015.

 

For other years, the hunch of Spanish has gotten worse. If a year ago 30% of Spaniards saw in 2014 the year of recovery, now that number is down to 17% already cited.

 

With regard to the personal situation of respondents, only 20% believe their life from the economic point of view better. 75% believe it will do the same or worse.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/I7edYieJNms/story01.htm Tyler Durden

75% Of Spaniards Don't Believe Rajoy's "Economic Recovery" Meme

With unemployment stuck at record highs and loan delinquencies surging (as we discussed here, here and here), it is hardly surprising that El Economista reports that more than two-thirds of Spaniards do not believe the “recovery” promised by Prime Minister Rajoy has been created. While Cramer ignorantly confidently espoused this morning that Spain is recovering (and with Spanish stocks and bonds back near pre-crisis levels), a massive 75% of the Spanish people believe their personal situation will be the same or worse in 2014.

 

 

Via El Economista (Google Translate),

The Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, and closed over the 2013 promising that the new year would be the “economic recovery”…. More than two thirds of the Spanish population momentum promised by the leader of the executive is not created.

 

This emerges from a survey released Wednesday by the newspaper El Mundo… a mere 17% trust the recovery next year and 8% estimated that recovery has actually happened in the latter part of 2013.

 

Curious that, in this study by Sigma Dos, to the Popular Party voters distrust the information provided by the Government. 47% of respondents who said they voted in the party believe that the dominant trend for next year is pessimistic and start putting the recovery in 2015.

 

For other years, the hunch of Spanish has gotten worse. If a year ago 30% of Spaniards saw in 2014 the year of recovery, now that number is down to 17% already cited.

 

With regard to the personal situation of respondents, only 20% believe their life from the economic point of view better. 75% believe it will do the same or worse.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/I7edYieJNms/story01.htm Tyler Durden

GM Misses Sales Expectations, Blames Weather; Ends Year With Most Ever December “Channels Stuffed”

Moments ago, GM, now fully non-government backstopped (and perhaps because of), reported adjusted US vehicle sales of 230,157, a decline of 6.3% from the 245,733 cars delivered a year earlier, on expectations of a 1.5% increase in sales. As Kurt McNeil, VP of US sales, announced ““December started a little slow but sales were stronger later in the month, especially in the week between Christmas and New Year’s. We didn’t make any big changes to our ‘go-to-market’ strategy during the month, which is to offer competitive incentives and market aggressively, and we are carrying good momentum heading into January.” GM also was quick to put blame on wintry weather in December – fear not though, they won’t be the last. It was unclear just how substantial GM’s incentives were in a month in which below margin inventory liquidation was the name of the game for all retailers: we expect to learn soon.

Still, despite the weak December, GM did report a 7.3% increase in total 2013 sales, which rose from 2.6 million to 2.786 million sales, although judging by the weak end of year performance, many prospective buyers may have tapped out their government-funded car loans, which as we reported a month ago, represented together with student loans some 99% of all loan issuance in the past year!

The full breakdown of GM’s December car sales can be seen below: of note – the surge in Corvette sales, which GM said had its best December sales since 2006. Perhaps less exciting was the 9.2% Y/Y drop in Volt sales. Are Americans losing their fascination with electric cars?

But perhaps the most interest datapoint in today’s release, and one which may explain why GM’s sales missed, was that the car’s near record channel stuffing, which as we reported last month had soared in the past three months at a record pace, and was just shy of its all time high, saw a modest decline from 780K to 748K. Still, the latter number was still the highest ever December GM dealer inventory for the month of December in the restructured company’s history. It would appears even dealers can’t take any more, which also means to expect significant weaknesses in the various January manufacturing diffusion indexes and hard data points.

Source: GM


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HksKF1MHO9w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

GM Misses Sales Expectations, Blames Weather; Ends Year With Most Ever December "Channels Stuffed"

Moments ago, GM, now fully non-government backstopped (and perhaps because of), reported adjusted US vehicle sales of 230,157, a decline of 6.3% from the 245,733 cars delivered a year earlier, on expectations of a 1.5% increase in sales. As Kurt McNeil, VP of US sales, announced ““December started a little slow but sales were stronger later in the month, especially in the week between Christmas and New Year’s. We didn’t make any big changes to our ‘go-to-market’ strategy during the month, which is to offer competitive incentives and market aggressively, and we are carrying good momentum heading into January.” GM also was quick to put blame on wintry weather in December – fear not though, they won’t be the last. It was unclear just how substantial GM’s incentives were in a month in which below margin inventory liquidation was the name of the game for all retailers: we expect to learn soon.

Still, despite the weak December, GM did report a 7.3% increase in total 2013 sales, which rose from 2.6 million to 2.786 million sales, although judging by the weak end of year performance, many prospective buyers may have tapped out their government-funded car loans, which as we reported a month ago, represented together with student loans some 99% of all loan issuance in the past year!

The full breakdown of GM’s December car sales can be seen below: of note – the surge in Corvette sales, which GM said had its best December sales since 2006. Perhaps less exciting was the 9.2% Y/Y drop in Volt sales. Are Americans losing their fascination with electric cars?

But perhaps the most interest datapoint in today’s release, and one which may explain why GM’s sales missed, was that the car’s near record channel stuffing, which as we reported last month had soared in the past three months at a record pace, and was just shy of its all time high, saw a modest decline from 780K to 748K. Still, the latter number was still the highest ever December GM dealer inventory for the month of December in the restructured company’s history. It would appears even dealers can’t take any more, which also means to expect significant weaknesses in the various January manufacturing diffusion indexes and hard data points.

Source: GM


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HksKF1MHO9w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

French President Hollande Needs A Friend

Having just completed his 75% millionaires tax and seen at the center of a what is likely to be a confiscatory “wealth tax” across Europe, Volkskrant shows that it is not just French President Hollande’s people that see him as the least popular ever, but the world’s leaders also…as no one will shake his hand…

 

h/t: WaPo


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/JcM60w8RLXM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

No Waking From Draghi’s Monetary Nightmare: Eurozone Credit Creation Tumbles To New All Time Low

One of our favorite themes in the past year has been watching Mario “Whatever it takes” Draghi reel powerless before the relentless contraction in Eurozone credit. Most recently, in November we reported that “when the ECB announced a “surprising” rate cut, 67 out of 70 economists who never saw it coming, were shocked. We were not. As we observed ten days prior, Europe had just seen the latest month of record low private sector loan growth in history. Or rather contraction. Back than we said that “one of our favorite series of posts describing the “Walking Dead” monetary zombie-infested continent that is Europe is the one showing the abysmal state Europe’s credit creation machinery, operated by none other than the Bank of Italy’s, Goldman’s ECB’s Mario Draghi, finds itself in.”

We concluded: “we now fully expect a very unclear Draghi, plagued by monetary zombie dreams, to do everything in his power, even though as SocGen notes, he really has no power in this case, to show he has not lost control and start with a rate cut in the November ECB meeting (eventually proceeding to a full-blown QE) in order to boost loan creation.” Less than two weeks later he did just that. The problem, as the ECB reported today, is that not only did M3 decline once more, to 1.4% or the slowest pace in over 2 years and well below the ECB’s 4.5% reference growth value, but more importantly lending to companies and households shrank 2.1% in October – the biggest drop on record! Draghi’s monetary zombies are winning.”

* * *

Fast forward to today, when the ECB just announced the latest set of undead monetary statistics for November. To nobody’s surprise, even though M3 posted the tiniest of possible annual increases, rising from 1.4% to 1.5% (3% below the ECB’s 4.5% reference value which it considers consistent with its price stability mandate), loan creation to the private sector declined once again, this time dumping to -2.3% from a revised -2.2%. As the WSJ reports what we have said for the past year, “The deepening decline increases pressure on the central bank to embark on further measures to stimulate lending, analysts said.”

By the numbers: in November lending to households declined by 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) reversing the €3 billion increase in October, while lending to firms fell by €13 billion, following a €15 billion drop in the previous month. Loans to firms were down by 3.9% on the year.

And visually:

What does it mean for the future of ECB actions? The ECB, citing the chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London said that “he expects the ECB to stand pat at its next meeting on Jan. 9, he thinks it will take more action early in 2014, “most likely” as another longer-term loan. It is “highly possible” that a future loan would be “tailored specifically toward bank lending.”

Or, looking at the way the EUR is dumping this morning, the ECB may once again shock everyone and do much more than this action, which is already conventionally accepted, and not only take rates even lower but potentially engage in the first case of full blown QE. After all, following three failed SMP sterilizations, it is not as if even the ECB is pretending to be “sterilizing” its previous episode of QE.

Goldman’s assessment:

While activity data in the Euro area have stabilised, we expect bank lending to the corporate sector to remain weak, reflecting a weak recovery, heightened credit risk aversion on the part of peripheral banks and continued balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. The ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR), based on banks’ balance sheet as of end-December, might have contributed to weak bank lending in recent months.

That…or the cold winter weather of course. Cause there is always something to explain away central planning failure.

Finally those looking for the culprits for Europe’s lending freeze, look no further than Italy…

… and, of course, a “recovering” Spain:

Source: ECB


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-_rtA-C7RxE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

No Waking From Draghi's Monetary Nightmare: Eurozone Credit Creation Tumbles To New All Time Low

One of our favorite themes in the past year has been watching Mario “Whatever it takes” Draghi reel powerless before the relentless contraction in Eurozone credit. Most recently, in November we reported that “when the ECB announced a “surprising” rate cut, 67 out of 70 economists who never saw it coming, were shocked. We were not. As we observed ten days prior, Europe had just seen the latest month of record low private sector loan growth in history. Or rather contraction. Back than we said that “one of our favorite series of posts describing the “Walking Dead” monetary zombie-infested continent that is Europe is the one showing the abysmal state Europe’s credit creation machinery, operated by none other than the Bank of Italy’s, Goldman’s ECB’s Mario Draghi, finds itself in.”

We concluded: “we now fully expect a very unclear Draghi, plagued by monetary zombie dreams, to do everything in his power, even though as SocGen notes, he really has no power in this case, to show he has not lost control and start with a rate cut in the November ECB meeting (eventually proceeding to a full-blown QE) in order to boost loan creation.” Less than two weeks later he did just that. The problem, as the ECB reported today, is that not only did M3 decline once more, to 1.4% or the slowest pace in over 2 years and well below the ECB’s 4.5% reference growth value, but more importantly lending to companies and households shrank 2.1% in October – the biggest drop on record! Draghi’s monetary zombies are winning.”

* * *

Fast forward to today, when the ECB just announced the latest set of undead monetary statistics for November. To nobody’s surprise, even though M3 posted the tiniest of possible annual increases, rising from 1.4% to 1.5% (3% below the ECB’s 4.5% reference value which it considers consistent with its price stability mandate), loan creation to the private sector declined once again, this time dumping to -2.3% from a revised -2.2%. As the WSJ reports what we have said for the past year, “The deepening decline increases pressure on the central bank to embark on further measures to stimulate lending, analysts said.”

By the numbers: in November lending to households declined by 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) reversing the €3 billion increase in October, while lending to firms fell by €13 billion, following a €15 billion drop in the previous month. Loans to firms were down by 3.9% on the year.

And visually:

What does it mean for the future of ECB actions? The ECB, citing the chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London said that “he expects the ECB to stand pat at its next meeting on Jan. 9, he thinks it will take more action early in 2014, “most likely” as another longer-term loan. It is “highly possible” that a future loan would be “tailored specifically toward bank lending.”

Or, looking at the way the EUR is dumping this morning, the ECB may once again shock everyone and do much more than this action, which is already conventionally accepted, and not only take rates even lower but potentially engage in the first case of full blown QE. After all, following three failed SMP sterilizations, it is not as if even the ECB is pretending to be “sterilizing” its previous episode of QE.

Goldman’s assessment:

While activity data in the Euro area have stabilised, we expect bank lending to the corporate sector to remain weak, reflecting a weak recovery, heightened credit risk aversion on the part of peripheral banks and continued balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. The ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR), based on banks’ balance sheet as of end-December, might have contributed to weak bank lending in recent months.

That…or the cold winter weather of course. Cause there is always something to explain away central planning failure.

Finally those looking for the culprits for Europe’s lending freeze, look no further than Italy…

… and, of course, a “recovering” Spain:

Source: ECB


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-_rtA-C7RxE/story01.htm Tyler Durden