Fuel Imports Send Japan's Deficit Careening To 3rd Worst On Record

USDJPY and Nikkei futures don’t know what to make of tonight’s data. Is it bad enough that we buy stocks (sell JPY) on the basis that Abe and Kuroda will have to do more or is it so bad that it ‘proves’ no matter what they do, the gig is up. It seems, by the reaction the latter as Japan’s trade balance collapses to the 3rd worst on record. Exports rose 18.6% (more than expected) but it is the imports that soared higher (26.1% vs 19.0% expectations) on the back of surging fuel costs. So, Abe got his inflation – on the cost push side (crushing margins) and not the animal-spirit-competitive exuberance demand-pull side. Perhaps it is time to rename it Abe-wrong-ics. Of course, we await Goldman’s blessing of the number as just wait one more quarter for the J-curve to turn up on this devaluation cycle… we wait patiently…

 

 

Seems like bad news is not good news in Japan…

 

as the slow painful detah of nation needing energy (of course) and having to pay for it in a currency that is increasingly worth-less (or worthless)…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ECGrbYFsj58/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Look Away

If you are still of the belief that the stock “market” is a market of stocks idiosyncratically valued based on the aggregate of investors weighted expectations of future earnings potential, we highly recommend you look away from the chart below. If, however, like Rick Santelli’s “something is wrong” comment or Carl Icahn’s “it’s all a mirage” perspective, you have some doubts, take a glimpse at the ‘fundamental’ reality you are betting your retirement on…

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

and as we noted earlier – this is with a falling USD… what happens (as with Europe) when the USD ramps next – on the back of another “Whatever it takes” moment from the ECB?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/dz7YExiOCxk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Berserk HFT Algo Du Jour

Just another day in the markets, just another HFT algo going completely insane and Nanex catching it in the act.

On November 19, 2013 starting at 16:00:37 and continuing for about 15 seconds, a High Frequency Trading (HFT) algorithm was let loose in the stock of  Fifth Third Bancorp (symbol: FITB, market capitalization: $17.3 Billion, plus or minus $1 Billion). The stock price swung wildly, rapidly trading up and down in a 3-5% range many times over. Just before this algo ran, the stock traded in a 25 cent range over the entire trading day. This HFT algo sent prices up and down in a $1 range, which is 4 times larger than the entire day’s trading range.

1. FITB – Trades color coded by reporting exchange and NBBO (gray/red shading).

One or more algos were fooled into buying high and selling low.

2. FITB – Showing NBBO: red is when it was crossed (bid price > ask price), yellow when locked (bid price = ask price) and gray for normal.

Here we can clearly see the oscillations. Remember, this is spread between the best bid and ask. While the spread itself remains narrow, the prices oscillate over a 3 to 5% range in less than a second.

3. FITB – Best bids and offers color coded by reporting exchange.

4. FITB – Zooming in on the trades (circles) and NBBO over a 5 second period of time.

5. FITB – Zoom of the best bids and asks.

6. FITB – Zoom of all bids and asks.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Ofd2gxTmAvU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Bernanke Speaks, Spiking EURJPY And Stock Futures

Curious why both ES and EURJPY (hitting a fresh 4 year high of 135.90) just jumped as if stung by a bee? The reason, as noted earlier, is due to Bernanke who just released his prepared remarks. Key highlights from Bloomberg:

  • BERNANKE SAYS MAIN RATE MAY BE LOW WHEN JOBLESS RATE BELOW 6.5%
  • BERNANKE SAYS MAIN RATE LIKELY LOW FOR LONG TIME AFTER QE TAPER
  • BERNANKE SAYS ECONOMY `FAR’ FROM WHERE FED WANTS IT TO BE
  • BERNANKE: ‘MAY BE SOME TIME’ BEFORE POLICY AT ‘NORMAL SETTINGS’
  • BERNANKE SAYS FOMC COMMITTED TO ‘HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICIES’
  • BERNANKE SAYS FOMC TO CONSIDER PROSPECT FOR LABOR MARKET GAINS

In short nothing new, just the usual “tapering is not tightening” mantra, the traditional attempt to misdirect from tapering, and to keep pushing the agenda that it is the stock that matters, as does forward guidance and short-term rates, and not the flow of monthly securities bluff which as the May-September period showed the market no longer buys. Good luck.

And now, back to Bernanke eating blackened chicken on a wavy craker.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ZUxNiOMEdAQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Guest Post: The Future Of Bitcoin Is In Asia…

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

Senator Tom Carper (Delaware) is confused about Bitcoin.

As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, this is how Carper framed his opening remarks yesterday at a hearing about digital currencies– with complete, incoherent confusion.

Carper’s hearing went on for several hours as one witness after another testified about the potential evils of digital currencies. They hailed from agencies and organizations like:

  • The Homeland Security committee
  • Criminal Division of the US Attorney General’s Office
  • US Secret Service Criminal Investigative Division
  • The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network
  • The International Centre for Missing & Exploited Children

Based on the way they stacked the witness list, the message they’re sending is clear: digital currencies like Bitoin equate to crime, terrorism, and child exploitation.

But the height of absurdity in yesterday’s hearing probably came during the testimony from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), in which the agency’s chief cited the BENEFITS of digital currencies, including:

  • anonymity
  • simple, easy to navigate
  • lower fees than the conventional financial system
  • globally accessible
  • can be used as both a store of value and medium of exchange
  • security

etc.

Yet in listing all of these benefits, FinCEN’s chief was actually trying to make a case AGAINST Bitcoin! In her mind, only criminal terrorists want low-fee, secure, globally accessible money.

All of these politicians and bureaucrats can’t wait to get their arms around digital currency to regulate the hell out of it. They don’t understand it… therefore they think it’s dangerous.

Even the World Bank president (a US government-appointed stooge) weighed in on digital currencies. It’s obvious they’re all afraid.

And their entire argument begins with the deeply flawed premise that financial privacy is somehow wrong, immoral, and nefarious.

There’s no sense trying to convince them otherwise. Government’s mission is to obstruct… particularly a government in decline.

So we can expect more hearings, more regulation, more disclosures. At least, in the Land of the Free.

Over here on the other side of the world, though, they’re not afraid of Bitcoin.

Places like Hong Kong and Singapore understand that they have a role to play as preeminent international financial centers in becoming financial hubs for digital currencies.

If the US wants to shoot itself in the foot (again) and shut itself out of the market, so be it. But Asia is embracing its potential role in the marketplace, complete with all the risks and rewards.

It wasn’t but a few weeks ago that a Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange ran off with a few million dollars of customer money. But that hasn’t cooled demand in the region… nor has it sparked a wave of debilitating regulations to clamp down on digital currencies.

What this ultimately means is that all the new businesses and intellectual capital associated with digital currencies will flock to Asia… just in the same way that all the cutting edge precious metals firms are now basing themselves in Singapore.

The US government is sharpening its steak knives in anticipation of a great digital currency roast. But they’ll find out very soon that Bitcoin has left the building… and moved on to greener, safer pastures in Asia.

This is good news, especially for second generation digital currencies and related firms like litecoin, ripple, and ven.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/wpwrBkrdwB4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Shopping With Bernanke: Where QE Cash Ends Up Tells Us Who Benefited

One can debate whether QE has benefitted Main Street or Wall Street until one is blue in the face, even though five years later, the answer is perfectly clear to all but the staunchest Keynesians and monetarists (and if it isn’t, just pay attention to the 3:30 pm S&P ramp every day). One thing, however, that is undisputed is what the market itself says about where the QE money ends up when it is being spent by its recipients. And that story is so simple even a Keynesian would get it.

Stated briefly, luxury retailers such as Tiffany, Coach and LVMH are now up 500% since the Lehman lows, and about 30% above the prior cycle highs. On the other hand, regular retailers such as Macy’s, Kohl’s and JC Penney are barely up 100% from the crisis lows, and still more than 30% below the last bubble highs.

And that, in a nutshell, is precisely how the money from QE has been distributed.

Source: JPM


    



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Stocks Slump (Again) As FX Carry Disconnects

Despite Yellen, Bullard, and Evans on the tape, markets limped lower on the day. Of course, we had the standard POMO-based ramp but once again credit markets and VIX indicated more than a few were seeking protection rather than loading the boat at these all-time high round-numbers. Stocks had reached their 'richest' in 3 months relative to the Fed's balance sheet and so were perhaps due a little more turmoiling but Treasuries sold off all day (and not on growth expectations) to end unchanged across the curve on the week. The USD oscillated but ended lower (JPY unch on the week) and commodities dribbled higher (though all remain red on the week). Perhaps the most worrisome thing today was the total disconnect between stocks and FX carry after Europe closed…

 

FX Carry tried its best but stocks entirely disconncted after Europe closed (and POMO ended)…

 

Treasury yields bled higher all day – retracing yesterday's gains…

 

Credit remains notably saturated still…

 

Precious metals went nowhere, oil rose modestly…

 

VIX appears modestly bid here relative to the exuberance…

 

Homebuilders have slipped notably in the last coupel of days…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: The Volatility term structure reached a complacency extreme – just as it has a few trimes this year – suggesting more than a 1-2% decline on this dip…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/lIy2xn_tLgM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Obamacare Is An Epic Disaster? Just Blame The Republicans

Whoever bet money on the prop bet that Obama would finally blame the epic debacle that is Obamacare on the republicans can now retire.

  • OBAMA SAYS ONE REASON FOR ROCKY HEALTH CARE ROLLOUT WAS THAT REPUBLICANS ON “ONE SIDE OF THE HILL” WERE INVESTED IN ITS FAILURE

Because it was obviously the Republicans who sabotaged the 3+ year rollout of Obamacare, and handpicked the “outside” contractors who made healthcare.gov such a smashing success. At least Bush walked away unscathed.

And now back to watching Obama as he channels the TOTUS.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/GM4T4xFJRXo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Census Bureau Suggests Job Manipulation Was Not Systematic

Following the White House’s ignorance of anything that could be going on at the Census Bureau (apart from knowing for sure that the report on jobs data manipulation was misleading), the Census Bureau itself has chimed in…

  • *CENSUS BUREAU SEES NO ‘SYSTEMIC MANIPULATION’ OF JOBS DATA

So that’s good then – just unsystematic? A single-manipulator, acting alone (from the book depository?)


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/5ldWYKP4-Ms/story01.htm Tyler Durden