Mel Watt on Fannie and Freddie – "I want to go back to 2008"

 

When Harry Reid (D-NV) changed the rules on how the Senate votes for a Presidential appointment, he opened the door for a critical change in the leadership at the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA). In short order, the Administrations' pick for the job, Mel Watt, got the appointment that had been stalled for a year, and Mike DeMarco is out. Liberals hated DeMarco. And with good reason.

FHFA was formed when Fannie and Freddie went into receivership back in 2009. FHFA was tasked, by law, with one and only one mission:

 

Minimize losses to taxpayers from F/F

 

DeMarco succeeded in this mission. As of today, F/F have paid back virtually all of the bailout money they received in 2009 and 2010. By the end of 2014 the taxpayers will be in the black from the bailouts. How was this miracle achieved? Simple – F/F stopped making bad loans.

When I say 'bad loans' I mean mortgages that are not structured or priced right. A good mortgage loan is made to someone who has down-payment money and a job that pays enough to service the mortgage. The borrower must have a credit background that demonstrates that they are able and willing to make monthly payments. Not so complicated.

Mel Watt will take over the FHFA in January. But even before he finds where the bathroom is at his new job he is changing the rules. He stated on Friday that he wants to reduce fees to borrowers who do not have the 20% down-payment and for borrowers with lower credit scores.

 

wsj

 

Watt's statement is payback for the liberals/progressives who want to take F/F back to the status quo of 2008 and who supported Watt to that end. In 2008 the mortgage giants were agents of federal policy on housing. The 'mission' was to increase home ownership at any cost. As it turned out, the cost of achieving those goals damn near destroyed the global economy. And now Mel Watt wants to turn the clock back five years and make the same mistakes all over.

What is the intent of the fees that were scheduled to go into effect in March of 2014? The goal was to increase the costs of borrowing from F/F in the hope that private lenders would come into the mortgage market and take business away from F/F. The DeMarco plan was to shrink F/F over time, and get D.C. out of the mortgage business. His actions were consistent with his mandate – minimize taxpayer risks. Demarco's words:

 

"those fees should rise in order to allow private investors, which target a higher rate of return, to compete."

 

So this frames the political debate. The liberal side of the equation wants to subsidize the mortgage market and exclude private capital. They want to do this to achieve social objectives of home ownership and to make a small step toward wealth redistribution. Lofty and admirable goals. But the tradeoff is that F/F will get bigger and more dominant in the mortgage business. Their role in the economy will expand, not contract – and the USA is once again opening the door for another crisis. A crisis that will work completely contrary to the stated goals of leveling the economic playing field (as it did in 2008).

With Watt taking over, the die is cast. FHFA, Fannie and Freddie are turning a corner and headed in a new (old) direction. When Watt takes over on January 6 we will see a bunch of new measures that will confirm the change in strategy. Many will cheer those efforts. It will mean a bigger role for F/F. It means the USA is doing a u-turn back to 2008. And it means that someday we will have a problem again.

 

Note:

It's not only liberals who hated DeMarco. Those who speculated in Fannie and Freddie common and preferred shares did too. DeMarco passed a rule (no votes anywhere) that 100% of F/F's income would go to the government and not be used to pay off the borrowings that occurred in the bailout. DeMarco's policy is now subject to suits from various hedge funds. DeMarco's action put the holders of F/F stock behind a huge wall. In theory, those shares are worthless, as F/F were on a glide path to be wound-down to nothing.

Watt can't deliver on his promises to those who got him his new job and at the same time continue with a plan to shutter F/F. If the companies do have a different future with Watt running the show, does that mean that the pref stock has a future too?

These are the actors on this stage:

 

The Speculators:

carlyle

JP

The Carlyle Group prepares to launch its IPO

 

How do the specs feel about Watt?

 

images

 

 

The Good Guys??

 

WATT

 

&

 

CUMMINGS

 

Talk about strange bedfellows – this one takes the cake. I wonder who will prevail in the end??

 

gregory-maiofis-1

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Mz_1Y7f4bxc/story01.htm Bruce Krasting

Mel Watt on Fannie and Freddie – “I want to go back to 2008”

 

When Harry Reid (D-NV) changed the rules on how the Senate votes for a Presidential appointment, he opened the door for a critical change in the leadership at the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA). In short order, the Administrations' pick for the job, Mel Watt, got the appointment that had been stalled for a year, and Mike DeMarco is out. Liberals hated DeMarco. And with good reason.

FHFA was formed when Fannie and Freddie went into receivership back in 2009. FHFA was tasked, by law, with one and only one mission:

 

Minimize losses to taxpayers from F/F

 

DeMarco succeeded in this mission. As of today, F/F have paid back virtually all of the bailout money they received in 2009 and 2010. By the end of 2014 the taxpayers will be in the black from the bailouts. How was this miracle achieved? Simple – F/F stopped making bad loans.

When I say 'bad loans' I mean mortgages that are not structured or priced right. A good mortgage loan is made to someone who has down-payment money and a job that pays enough to service the mortgage. The borrower must have a credit background that demonstrates that they are able and willing to make monthly payments. Not so complicated.

Mel Watt will take over the FHFA in January. But even before he finds where the bathroom is at his new job he is changing the rules. He stated on Friday that he wants to reduce fees to borrowers who do not have the 20% down-payment and for borrowers with lower credit scores.

 

wsj

 

Watt's statement is payback for the liberals/progressives who want to take F/F back to the status quo of 2008 and who supported Watt to that end. In 2008 the mortgage giants were agents of federal policy on housing. The 'mission' was to increase home ownership at any cost. As it turned out, the cost of achieving those goals damn near destroyed the global economy. And now Mel Watt wants to turn the clock back five years and make the same mistakes all over.

What is the intent of the fees that were scheduled to go into effect in March of 2014? The goal was to increase the costs of borrowing from F/F in the hope that private lenders would come into the mortgage market and take business away from F/F. The DeMarco plan was to shrink F/F over time, and get D.C. out of the mortgage business. His actions were consistent with his mandate – minimize taxpayer risks. Demarco's words:

 

"those fees should rise in order to allow private investors, which target a higher rate of return, to compete."

 

So this frames the political debate. The liberal side of the equation wants to subsidize the mortgage market and exclude private capital. They want to do this to achieve social objectives of home ownership and to make a small step toward wealth redistribution. Lofty and admirable goals. But the tradeoff is that F/F will get bigger and more dominant in the mortgage business. Their role in the economy will expand, not contract – and the USA is once again opening the door for another crisis. A crisis that will work completely contrary to the stated goals of leveling the economic playing field (as it did in 2008).

With Watt taking over, the die is cast. FHFA, Fannie and Freddie are turning a corner and headed in a new (old) direction. When Watt takes over on January 6 we will see a bunch of new measures that will confirm the change in strategy. Many will cheer those efforts. It will mean a bigger role for F/F. It means the USA is doing a u-turn back to 2008. And it means that someday we will have a problem again.

 

Note:

It's not only liberals who hated DeMarco. Those who speculated in Fannie and Freddie common and preferred shares did too. DeMarco passed a rule (no votes anywhere) that 100% of F/F's income would go to the government and not be used to pay off the borrowings that occurred in the bailout. DeMarco's policy is now subject to suits from various hedge funds. DeMarco's action put the holders of F/F stock behind a huge wall. In theory, those shares are worthless, as F/F were on a glide path to be wound-down to nothing.

Watt can't deliver on his promises to those who got him his new job and at the same time continue with a plan to shutter F/F. If the companies do have a different future with Watt running the show, does that mean that the pref stock has a future too?

These are the actors on this stage:

 

The Speculators:

carlyle

JP

The Carlyle Group prepares to launch its IPO

 

How do the specs feel about Watt?

 

images

 

 

The Good Guys??

 

WATT

 

&

 

CUMMINGS

 

Talk about strange bedfellows – this one takes the cake. I wonder who will prevail in the end??

 

gregory-maiofis-1

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Mz_1Y7f4bxc/story01.htm Bruce Krasting

The Hidden Motives Behind The Federal Reserve Taper

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt Market

The Hidden Motives Behind The Federal Reserve Taper

“The powers of financial capitalism had (a) far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland; a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank… sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world.” – Carroll Quigley, member of the Council on Foreign Relations

If one wishes to truly understand the actions behind private Federal Reserve policy, one must come to terms with a fundamental reality – everything the Fed does it does for a reason, and the most apparent reasons are not always the primary reasons. If you think that the Fed simply acts on impulsive stupidity or hubris, then you haven’t a clue what is going on. If you think the Fed only does what it does in order to hide the numerous negative aspects of our current economy, then you only know half the story. If you think the Fed does not have a plan, then you are sorely mistaken…

Central Bankers and their political proponents espouse a globalist ideology, meaning, they are internationalists in their orientation and motivations. They do not have loyalties to any particular country. They do not take an oath to any particular constitution. They do not have empathy for any particular culture or social experiment. They have their own subculture, with their own “values”, and their own social hierarchy. They are a kind of “tribe” or “sect”; a cult,if you will, that views itself as superior to all others. This means that when the central bankers that run the Fed act, they only act with the intention to support and promote globalization, not the best interests of America and Americans.

The process of globalization REQUIRES the dissolution of the U.S. economy as it exists today. Period. There is no way around it. America can no longer remain a superpower in the face of what globalists call “harmonization”. The dollar can no longer maintain its petro-currency status or its world reserve status if total centralization under a new global currency is to be achieved. Globalists believe that America must be sacrificed on the altar of “progress”, and diminished into a mere enclave, a feudal colony of a greater global system. The globalists at the Fed are no different.

Once this driving philosophy is understood, the final conclusion is obvious – the Fed exists to destroy the U.S. financial system and the U.S. currency mechanism. That is what they are here for.

This is why the dollar has lost 98% of its value since the Fed was established in 1913. This is why the Fed deliberately engineered the derivatives bubble crisis through the implementation of artificially low interest rates. This is why their response to the crisis was to create yet another massive bubble in stocks and bonds through QE stimulus. This is why the Fed is cutting stimulus today.

How does the taper play into the long running program of dollar destruction and globalization? Let’s take a look…

The Multifaceted Taper Strategy

In my article ‘Is The Fed Ready To Cut America’s Fiat Life Support’, and my article ‘Expect Devastating Global Economic Changes In 2014’, I predicted that a Fed taper was highly likely. Central banks almost always implant policy shift rumors into the mainstream media a few months before they implement them. They did this for TARP, for QE1, QE2, QE3, and the Taper. In fact, the Fed spent the better part of the past quarter conditioning investors to the idea of stimulus cuts, so I was not at all surprised when they followed through.

The Fed has, of course, now announced a $10 billion QE reduction just in time for Christmas and the 100th anniversary of the privately run institution. In the past, I have pointed out the tendency of central banks to enforce detrimental policy changes while the government, the economy and/or the bank itself is in the midst of a major transition. The Fed’s taper announcement comes just in time for the end of Ben Bernanke’s term as chairman, and the expected nomination of Janet Yellen.

This is done, I believe, because it provides an opportunity to divert blame for a crisis event they know is on the horizon. If attention is ever focused on the Fed specifically for a market downturn or bond disaster triggered by the ever present dollar bubble, Yellen can simply blame the QE policies of Bernanke (who will be long gone), while promising that her “new” policies will surely repair the damage. This placates the public and buys the central bankers time to do even MORE damage.

The taper itself is not just a “head fake”, however. It is a far more complex action. Tapering provides a method of psychologically distancing the Federal Reserve from the consequences of market movements. The banksters are essentially proclaiming to the public that their work is done, they have saved the economy, and now they are moving on, be it only $10 billion at a time. Whatever happens from here on is “not their fault”.

Most alternative analysts expected no taper of QE, and for good reason. While the mainstream touts the propaganda of economic recovery, independent financial experts understand that little to nothing was actually accomplished by the bailouts. Virtually no stimulus was absorbed in a localized way by mainstreet business. Real unemployment counting U-6 measurements still stands at around 20%. Real estate markets and home prices have a received a small boost, which at first glance appears positive until one examines who is actually buying; namely big banks and international investment firms snapping up properties only to reissue them on the market as rentals:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/behind-the-rise-in-house-prices-wall-street-buyers/?_r=0

U.S. holiday retail sales and annual retail sales have been the weakest since 2009:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-30/black-friday-traffic-seen-thinning-as-stores-open-early.html

The only thing that QE ultimately accomplished was a spectacular rise in stocks through direct manipulation, which Fed agents like Alan Greenspan and Richard Fisher now openly admit to. The problem is, while gamblers in equities proudly boast about the Fed induced bull run in the Dow and how much money they have made, they remain oblivious to the underlying cost of the charade. Market investors have been enriched, yes, but little do they know that stock legitimacy is about to be sacrificed.

The price to earnings ratio of stocks (the market value of stocks versus what they SHOULD be valued according to the actual earnings of the companies listed) in the S&P 500 today stands at around 15, which is the highest it has been since before the 2008 market crash. Mainstream economists attempt to dismiss the issue by using a 15 year average while claiming that the P/E ratio in 2013 is mild compared to the tech bubble of the late 90’s. What they don’t seem to grasp is that the market of the past four to five years is an entirely different animal compared to 15 years ago.

Stocks in general have received considerable support through purchases by Fed bolstered banks and the Fed itself, creating an atmosphere of artificial demand for equities using QE fiat injections. Though no full audit of the bailouts exists (TARP is the only measure audited so far), it is projected that the banking sector alone has garnered tens of trillions in Fed fiat, which they have used to bolster their otherwise debt ridden holdings. It is only logical to expect that this capital tsunami has been used by numerous companies as a way to present false earnings. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley all reported substantial profits for 2009 while at the same time reporting massive liabilities caused by the derivatives crash so that they could collect on the bailout bonanza.

So which one is it? Are companies making profits, or are they wallowing in insurmountable debt while presenting government stimulus as a form of profit?

What the Fed and corporate banks have done is create a market in which neither earnings, nor stock values can be trusted. The fact that the P/E ratio is higher than it has been since 2008 despite this manipulation should concern anyone with any sense.

Worst of all, the Fed’s monetization of U.S. Treasury debt has only expanded while foreign investment in long term debt has contracted. With our official national debt growing by at least $1 trillion per year, our country cannot continue to function without an ever increasing amount of foreign investment, or, Federal Reserve printing. The Fed cannot make cuts to QE if our system is to survive (if you want to call it survival), the Fed must expand QE forever, or at least until the dollar implodes due to hyperinflation.

So then, why has the taper been introduced at all? No one wants it. The government shouldn’t want it. Investors certainly don’t want it. Our economy is utterly dependent on the opposite. What purpose does it serve?

The assumption has always been that the Fed wants to keep the system afloat. I submit that things have changed. I submit that the Fed no longer wishes to prop up our fiscal structure, or at least, no longer wishes to be seen as propping it up. I submit that the Fed is not pursuing dollar destruction through standard hyperinflation, but rather, they are preparing the U.S. for default, which also will result in currency implosion.

The Taper Parallels

“It must not be felt that the heads of the world’s chief central banks were themselves substantive powers in world finance. They were not. Rather they were the technicians and agents of the dominant investment bankers of their own countries, who had raised them up, and who were perfectly capable of throwing them down. The substantive financial powers of the world were in the hands of these investment bankers who remained largely behind the scenes in their own unincorporated private banks. These formed a system of international cooperation and national dominance which was more private, more powerful, and more secret than that of their agents in the central banks. “ – Carroll Quigley, Tragedy And Hope

Initial shock over the taper scenario has not sunk into the markets yet (as Zero Hedge points out, the last time a major central bank cut stimulus measures to a dependent country, stocks rallied, then crashed within months). Few people see much difference between $75 billion per month and $85 billion per month, but the size of the cuts is not really the issue. Rather, it is the Fed’s act of fading into the background that should concern us.

The taper announcement parallels perfectly with the accelerating debate over the U.S. debt ceiling, and I do not think this is at all a coincidence. Tapering seems inconceivable to many, but for the Fed it makes perfect sense if the goal of the globalists is to generate a default scenario while diverting blame. I believe that Americans are being prepared psychologically for just such an event. Already, the White House is warning that government funding will essentially disappear by the end of February:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/us-usa-fiscal-idUSBRE9BF1FW20131219

The expectation fostered by the mainstream media is that a debt fight similar to the October theater will not happen again. I agree. I believe the next debate will be much worse. The vast majority will assume that the “can” will be kicked down the road again, and they may be right, but given the Fed’s behavior, and given that they have begun to taper despite what appears logical, many people may be in for a shock when our government also suddenly decides one day soon to buck assumptions and default rather than prolong the pain.

The full spectrum failure of Obamacare only adds excuse and incentive. There is no longer a legislative centerpiece rationale for further spending. Obama’s approval rating is at historic lows for any president. The stage has been set for the most epic of fake political battles.

The Left and Right leadership, at the top of the pyramid, are nothing more than flunkies for the global elite. If globalists have decided that it is time to apply the final death blows to the dollar, default would be the quickest and most efficient way, and political puppetry can easily make it happen. The calamity would be blamed on “partisan bickering” and “government gridlock”, or even the inefficiency of “democracy”. The Fed, with its taper in place and its fake recovery established, would be presented as the only “sane” institution at America’s disposal.

Perhaps at this point even more pervasive QE programs would recommence, perhaps not. At bottom, though, the taper is not a peripheral issue. It is an action at the center of a much more elaborate process, an action that seems to have been undertaken in preparation for a larger event. The next year is shaping up to be the most chaotic since the debt crisis began in 2008, and as the situation progresses, the subtleties of the Federal Reserve and the international banks that back it must not go unnoticed, or in the end, unpunished.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Hi00kjSXY9Y/story01.htm Tyler Durden

FX Outlook: Thin Conditions Dominate

The lack of participation in the global capital markets, in general, and the foreign exchange market, in particular, can make for erratic price action punctuating an eerie calm.  Order flow and position adjustment (passive, as in triggering of stops, or more active ahead of year end) may exert greater influence than is often the case. 

 

Here is an overview on how we see the technical condition of the dollar against a selected group of foreign currencies into the year end. 

 

Euro:  After posting a big reversal day on December 18 in response to the Fed’s tapering, the euro moved lower.  In the following two sessions, (December 19-20), the euro slipped another half cent to test the initial retracement objective of the advance from early November (~$1.2755) that is found near $1.3615.  The euro failed to make a new session low despite the sharp upward revision in Q3 US GDP (4.1% vs 3.6% and 2.6% initially).  A break would initially signal potential into the $1.3525-50 area.  On the top side, a move back above $1.3720 spur a move toward the recent highs, just above $1.3800.   The MACDs have turned lower, but the RSI appears to be curling higher. 

 

Dollar Index:    Although this basket is heavily weighted toward the euro and Europe more generally, it has outperformed the euro due to the weakness of the yen and Canadian dollar.  The US dollar’s upside momentum since the FOMC meeting faded as the Dollar Index hit the 61.8% retracement (~82.82) of the losses since Nov 8 high of almost 81.50 and corresponds with the tend line down off the Nov highs.  The RSI and MACDs are move constructive than in the euro and the 5-day moving average is set to cross above the 20-day average in the coming days.   That said, the price action before the weekend and the weak close cautions against chasing the market higher.

 

Yen:    The yen lost a little less than 1% against the dollar last week, falling to new five year lows in the aftermath of the Fed’s tapering decision.  The RSI and MACDs, though did not confirm the price action by making new highs.  The price action ahead of the weekend was not very encouraging.  Key support is see near the 20-day moving average, which the dollar has not traded below since Nov 8.  It comes in near JPY102.80 (rising around 15 pips a day).  

 

Sterling:     The technical signals are not strong for sterling.  It has moved above the $1.6400 level several times this month, but has managed to close above there only once (Dec 10).  Support is seen in the $1.6220-40 area.  Inclined to favor the upside, but risk-reward considerations are not very attractive at current levels.  

 

Swiss franc:   The dollar bounced off the lows that had been carved out over the last 10 days or so just below CHF0.8850.  However, it ran out of seem near CHF0.9000.    The RSI is turning down, but the MACDs are have crossed to the upside.   We inclined to see a test on CHF0.8900 in the days ahead; yet there are better risk-reward opportunities.  Moreover, even in the best of times, the Swiss franc is not always very liquid and over the holiday period this will be especially true.  

 

Canadian dollar:   The US dollar has tried to established a foothold above CAD1.07 a handful of times this month, but has failed to do so.  Although the greenback made new three-year highs against the Canadian dollar, the RSI and MACDs have failed to confirm the price action, warning of the of the risk of a near-term pullback.  Initial support for the US dollar will likely be encountered in the CAD1.0625-50 area.  A break of CAD1.0560 is needed to signal a deeper correction.  

 

Australian dollar:  Before the weekend and helped by position squaring the Australian dollar posted its biggest advance in nearly 2-months.  While the RSI has turned higher, the MACDs have yet to turn.  A move above $0.8970-$0.9000 would help lift the technical tone.  Yet, watch the 20-day moving average, which comes in near $0.9040, and has kept counter-trend up moves in check since early November.  

 

Mexican peso:   The near-term technical outlook for the peso is not clear.  Neither the RSI or MACDs are generating any strong signals and the price action remains range-bound.  The dollar has not been above MXN13.10 or below MXN12.80 for nearly three weeks.  

 

For 2013, our “big trade” was buying the peso for Australian dollars.  It worked out solely because of the Aussie leg (-14%) as the peso was little changed (-0.6%).  This year, we are going to stick with the long peso leg, but switch from the Aussie short to a short Canadian dollar position.   Currently the cross is trading above MXN12.12.  The MXN12.00 is initial support and then MXN11.85.  However, if our fundamental and technical analysis is correct, we think there is potential toward MXN11.20 in 2014.

 

Observations on speculative positioning in selected CME currency futures:  

 

1.  Net and gross position adjustments among speculative participants was minimal in the reporting period covering the days leading up to the FOMC meeting.

 

2. The clearest tendency was to add to gross short positions, except for the euro and sterling, where they were trimmed.

 

3.  Gross short Canadian dollar positions continue to grow, though the increase in the net short positions was more a function of longs being cut than new shorts building. The 65.5k net short position is the largest in seven years and just behind the record in late 2006.   In any event, the gross short position of 90.6k contracts is second only to the yen, where the gross  shorts stand at 152.4k contracts. 


    

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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/yA8zsBO26eU/story01.htm Marc To Market

What's Next For The US Prison System?

It’s no secret the US is facing a dilemma when it comes to its prison system. With the largest prison population and incarceration rate in the World, the US is facing severe overcrowding and more spending on prisons than education. What does the future hold for the US prison system?

 

Boston University Online Masters in Criminal Justice

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/3-L1wW1fR-w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

What’s Next For The US Prison System?

It’s no secret the US is facing a dilemma when it comes to its prison system. With the largest prison population and incarceration rate in the World, the US is facing severe overcrowding and more spending on prisons than education. What does the future hold for the US prison system?

 

Boston University Online Masters in Criminal Justice

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/3-L1wW1fR-w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

1% Spike In Yields = $200 Billion In Losses For US Firms

Back in May, just after the BOJ unleashed its epic QE program, which on a relative basis was about twice the size of the Fed’s own QE, and when bond yields for JGBs suddenly soared higher before a flurry of bond market halts forced the BOJ to completely take over the entire JGB market, the key question among the financial community was how big the losses for Japan’s banks would be as a result of a big jump in yields. We provided the answer: “A 100bp interest rate shock in the JGB yield curve, would cause a loss of ¥10tr for Japan’s banks.” Or, roughly $100 billion for 100 bps. Which is why the BOJ promptly decided to take away from the market the ability to set yields on the margin: after all the paradox of pushing for inflation and keeping bond rates low did not compute so might as well do away with the bond market entirely.

Fast forward to today when it is not Japan but the US that suddenly the topic of discussion over the possibility of spiking rates (thanks to the Fed’s recently announced creeping taper), and specifically how big the losses at US bond funds and various other financial institutions would be as a result of a 1%, 2% or bigger jump in rates. Now, courtesy of the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, we know precisely how badly US investors, funds, and financial firms would be impaired should rates spike.

To wit:

Losses from a given change in interest rates would be larger than in the past. These positions increase the vulnerability for some market participants to outsized losses that could be difficult to absorb in the event of an unanticipated increase in long-term rates. To assess the degree of vulnerability, we simulated an adverse interest rate shock to estimate losses by bond funds from an instantaneous parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points from current levels. We then compared the impact of such losses in today’s context to loss rates from a similar hypothetical scenario during the three previous periods of U.S. monetary policy tightening. Losses during each tightening cycle are calculated by averaging monthly estimated losses, where the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is used as a proxy for duration and mutual fund bond holdings are based on data from the Investment Company Institute. Figure 15 shows that losses could rise to nearly $200 billion, underscoring that current bond portfolios are vulnerable to a sudden, unanticipated rise in long-term rates.

Which brings us to this simple rule of thumb:

A sharp 1% spike in yields would lead to

  • $100 billion loss for Japanese banks
  • $200 billion loss for US banks
  • As for European banks whose balance sheets are loaded up with sovereign bonds, the are literally off the charts.

So bring on the bond sales. Let’s hope that everyone sells in a calm, cool and collected manner or else the bond funds (oh wait, the same entities who are selling, and are thus motivated to sell first and avoid future losses) get it…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/At6ouf2JI1w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Ultimate Chartbook Of The Most Important FOMC Meeting Ever

Wondering what a 'market' looks like up, close, and personal in the seconds before, during, and after this week's "most important FOMC meeting ever." From SPY's 50-second lead on the news release to VIX's gap, and from crossed markets to e-mini futures leading the premature charge, Nanex's charts are a smorgasbord of SEC-inspiration…

 

Via Nanex,

Close-up charts in SPY (mostly) around the 2pm Federal Reserve FOMC news release on December 19, 2013.

SPY – jumps 50 seconds early. Each dot is a trade. There was more activity in this time period, than during the actual news release.



The bid/ask spread got a bit tipsy..

This one-second zoom shows a confused bid/ask spread. What is the bid/ask spread here? What does it matter? Who cares!



2pm is near, prepare the VIIX!

Not only does the NBBO in VIIX widen from pennies to dollars, but it flutters hundreds – sometimes thousands – of times in a second! No trading though, so that's good. More is always better, right? Wait, did you say no trading? That's bad.



What took you so long? Market reacts hundreds of millions of nanoseconds later than last time.

SPY drops sharply about 488 Million nanoseconds later than last time.



Do you really want to look at this close, under bright lights?

Zooming in on 1 second of trading (shade is NBBO spread). Multiple buying and selling waves – buyers and sellers must keep missing each other.



How about that Quote spread?

What exactly is the bid/ask spread in SPY during this one second? How do you measure it? Was there any trading going on? Who cares!



How about that trading!

The same second of time, but showing trades in SPY executing all over the bid/ask spread. Lots of trades. Trading is good! 



About 91 seconds later, give or take a few million microseconds, this happened:

SPY tumbles in heavy trading. This is just 200 milliseconds of time, literally the blink of an eye. The red shading indicates where the NBBO is crossed (the bid from one exchange higher than the offer from another). Regulations prohibit crossed NBBO's, so this didn't really happen: you didn't see any red shading here.



It was the eMini's fault!

Here's the same time period as chart above, but showing trading in the eMini futures which takes place in Chicago – a city that is a few million nanoseconds away.



More to and fro trading in SPY…

Down one second, back up 2 seconds later. The people can't decide what the news means. But there is trading, and trading is good!



One Exchange starts dragging behind, it must be getting late..

The blue diamonds are late trade reports from Direct Edge. Naughty, naughty.



When the dark pools start dragging, it's time to close.

Green dots are trades reported by dark pools – clearly running many seconds behind.



 


    



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Canada Supports Life, Liberty And The Pursuit Of… Prostitution

34 years after Canada’s Supreme Court upheld the country’s anti-prositution laws, the highest court has struck down the nation’s three prosititution-related laws in their entirety in a unanimous 9-0 ruling. Following the US’ demand for minimum wage for strippers, AP reports Canada’s ruling is a victory for sex workers seeking safer working conditions because it found the laws violated the charter guarantee to life, liberty, and security of the prison.

 

Via AP,

Canada’s highest court has struck down the country’s prostitution laws in their entirety in a unanimous 9-0 ruling.

 

The high court on Friday struck down all three prostitution-related laws: against keeping a brothel, living on the avails of prostitution, and street soliciting.

 

The ruling is a victory for sex workers seeking safer working conditions because it found that the laws violated the charter guarantee to life, liberty and security of the person.

 

But the Supreme Court of Canada decision also gives Parliament a one-year reprieve to respond with new legislation.

 

Ontario’s Appeal Court previously struck down the ban on brothels on the grounds it exposed women to more danger.

 

Friday’s landmark ruling comes 34 years after the Supreme Court last upheld the country’s anti-prostitution laws.


    



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Guest Post: 8 Ways The Taper Is Going To Affect You And Your Family

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

The unelected central planners at the Federal Reserve have decided that the time has come to slightly taper the amount of quantitative easing that it has been doing.  On Wednesday, the Fed announced that monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds will be reduced from $45 billion to $40 billion, and monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities will be reduced from $35 billion to $30 billion.  When this news came out, it sent shockwaves through financial markets all over the planet.  But the truth is that not that much has really changed.  The Federal Reserve will still be recklessly creating gigantic mountains of new money out of thin air and massively intervening in the financial marketplace.  It will just be slightly less than before.  However, this very well could represent a very important psychological turning point for investors.  It is a signal that "the party is starting to end" and that the great bull market of the past four years is drawing to a close.  So what is all of this going to mean for average Americans?  The following are 8 ways that "the taper" is going to affect you and your family…

1. Interest Rates Are Going To Go Up

Following the announcement on Wednesday, the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries went up to 2.89% and even CNBC admitted that the taper is a "bad omen for bonds".  Thousands of other interest rates in our economy are directly affected by the 10 year rate, and so if that number climbs above 3 percent and stays there, that is going to be a sign that a significant slowdown of economic activity is ahead.

2. Home Sales Are Likely Going To Go Down

Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries.  Because the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries is now substantially higher than it was earlier this year, mortgage rates have also gone up.  That is one of the reasons why the number of mortgage applications just hit a new 13 year low.  And now if rates go even higher that is going to tighten things up even more.  If your job is related to the housing industry in any way, you should be extremely concerned about what is coming in 2014.

3. Your Stocks Are Going To Go Down

Yes, I know that stocks skyrocketed today.  The Dow closed at a new all-time record high, and I can't really provide any rational explanation for why that happened.  When the announcement was originally made, stocks initially sold off.  But then they rebounded in a huge way and the Dow ended up close to 300 points.

A few months ago, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just hinted that a taper might be coming soon, stocks fell like a rock.  I have a feeling that the Fed orchestrated things this time around to make sure that the stock market would have a positive reaction to their news.  But of course I absolutely cannot prove this at all.  I hope someday we learn the truth about what actually happened on Wednesday afternoon.  I have a feeling that there was some direct intervention in the markets shortly after the announcement was made and then the momentum algorithms took over from there.

In any event, what we do know is that when QE1 ended stocks fell dramatically and the same thing happened when QE2 ended.  If you doubt this, just check out this chart.

Of course QE3 is not being ended, but this tapering sends a signal to investors that the days of "easy money" are over and that we have reached the peak of the market.

And if you are at the peak of the market, what is the logical thing to do?

Sell, sell, sell.

But in order to sell, you are going to need to have buyers.

And who is going to want to buy stocks when there is no upside left?

4. The Money In Your Bank Account Is Constantly Being Devalued

When a new dollar is created, the value of each existing dollar that you hold goes down.  And thanks to the Federal Reserve, the pace of money creation in this country has gone exponential in recent years.  Just check out what has been happening to M1.  It has nearly doubled since the financial crisis of 2008…

M1 Money Supply 2013

The Federal Reserve has been behaving like the Weimar Republic, and this tapering does not change that very much.  Even with this tapering, the Fed is still going to be creating money out of thin air at an absolutely insane rate.

And for those that insist that what the Federal Reserve is doing is "working", it is important to remember that the crazy money printing that the Weimar Republic did worked for them for a little while too before ending in complete and utter disaster.

5. Quantitative Easing Has Been Causing The Cost Of Living To Rise

The Federal Reserve insists that we are in a time of "low inflation", but anyone that goes to the grocery store or that pays bills on a regular basis knows what a lie that is.  The truth is that if the inflation rate was still calculated the same way that it was back when Jimmy Carter was president, the official rate of inflation would be somewhere between 8 and 10 percent today.

Most of the new money created by quantitative easing has ended up in the hands of the very wealthy, and it is in the things that the very wealthy buy that we are seeing the most inflation.  As one CNBC article recently stated, we are seeing absolutely rampant inflation in "stocks and bonds and art and Ferraris and farmland".

6. Quantitative Easing Did Not Reduce Unemployment And Tapering Won't Either

The Federal Reserve actually first began engaging in quantitative easing back in late 2008.  As you can see from the chart below, the percentage of Americans that are actually working is lower today than it was back then…

Employment-Population Ratio 2013

The mainstream media continues to insist that quantitative easing was all about "stimulating the economy" and that it is now okay to cut back on quantitative easing because "unemployment has gone down".  Hopefully you can see that what the mainstream media has been telling you has been a massive lie.  According to the government's own numbers, the percentage of Americans with a job has stayed at a remarkably depressed level since the end of 2010.  Anyone that tries to tell you that we have had an "employment recovery" is either very ignorant or is flat out lying to you.

7. The Rest Of The World Is Going To Continue To Lose Faith In Our Financial System

Everyone else around the world has been watching the Federal Reserve recklessly create hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air and use it to monetize staggering amounts of government debt.  They have been warning us to stop doing this, but the Fed has been slow to listen.

The greatest damage that quantitative easing has been causing to our economy does not involve the short-term effects that most people focus on.  Rather, the greatest damage that quantitative easing has been causing to our economy is the fact that it is destroying worldwide faith in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. debt.

Right now, far more U.S. dollars are used outside the country than inside the country.  The rest of the world uses U.S. dollars to trade with one another, and major exporting nations stockpile massive amounts of our dollars and our debt.

We desperately need the rest of the world to keep playing our game, because we have become very dependent on getting super cheap exports from them and we have become very dependent on them lending us trillions of our own dollars back to us.

If the rest of the world decides to move away from the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt because of the incredibly reckless behavior of the Federal Reserve, we are going to be in a massive amount of trouble.  Our current economic prosperity greatly depends upon everyone else using our dollars as the reserve currency of the world and lending trillions of dollars back to us at ultra-low interest rates.

And there are signs that this is already starting to happen.  In fact, China recently announced that they are going to quit stockpiling more U.S. dollars.  This is one of the reasons why the Fed felt forced to do something on Wednesday.

But what the Fed did was not nearly enough.  It is still going to be creating $75 billion out of thin air every single month, and the rest of the world is going to continue to lose more faith in our system the longer this continues.

8. The Economy As A Whole Is Going To Continue To Get Even Worse

Despite more than four years of unprecedented money printing by the Federal Reserve, the overall U.S. economy has continued to decline.  If you doubt this, please see my previous article entitled "37 Reasons Why 'The Economic Recovery Of 2013' Is A Giant Lie".

And no matter what the Fed does now, our decline will continue.  The tragic downfall of small cities such as Salisbury, North Carolina are perfect examples of what is happening to our country as a whole…

During the three-year period ending in 2009, Salisbury’s poverty rate of 16% was about 3% higher than the national rate. In the following three-year period between 2010 and 2012, the city’s poverty rate was approaching 30%. Salisbury has traditionally relied heavily on the manufacturing sector, particularly textiles and fabrics. In recent decades, however, manufacturing activity has declined significantly and continues to do so. Between 2010 and 2012, manufacturing jobs in Salisbury — as a percent of the workforce — shrank from 15.5% to 8.3%.

But the truth is that you don't have to travel far to see evidence of our economic demise for yourself.  All you have to do is to go down to the local shopping mall.  Sears has experienced sales declines for 27 quarters in a row, and at this point Sears is a dead man walking.  The following is from a recent article by Wolf Richter

The market share of Sears – including K-Mart – has dropped to 2% in 2013 from 2.9% in 2005. Sales have declined for years. The company lost money in fiscal 2012 and 2013. Unless a miracle happens, and they don’t happen very often in retail, it will lose a ton in fiscal 2014, ending in January: for the first three quarters, it’s $1 billion in the hole.

 

Despite that glorious track record, and no discernible turnaround, the junk-rated company has had no trouble hoodwinking lenders into handing it a $1 billion loan that matures in 2018, to pay off an older loan that would have matured two years earlier.

And J.C. Penney is suffering a similar fate.  According to Richter, the company has lost a staggering 1.6 billion dollars over the course of the last year…

Then there’s J.C. Penney. Sales plunged 27% over the last three years. It lost over $1.6 billion over the last four quarters. It installed a revolving door for CEOs. It desperately needed to raise capital; it was bleeding cash, and its suppliers and landlords had already bitten their fingernails to the quick. So the latest new CEO, namely its former old CEO Myron Ullman, set out to extract more money from the system, borrowing $1.75 billion and raising $785 million in a stock sale at the end of September that became infamous the day he pulled it off.

So don't believe the hype.

The economy is getting worse, not better.

Quantitative easing did not "rescue the economy", but it sure has made our long-term problems a whole lot worse.

And this "tapering" is not a sign of better things to come.  Rather, it is a sign that the bubble of false prosperity that we have been enjoying for the past few years is beginning to end.


    



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