The Fed, The Taper & What Happens “When The Kidnapper Wears Prada”

The rich continue to grow richer, and as David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) so eloquently explains in this brief clip, this has pushed the Fed into a corner. As the Federal Reserve gets a new chair and decides what to do next, whether to print $85 billion a month more or not, McWilliams examines the heist that is the new normal financialized economy – who gets all the loot and why today’s kidnappers wear Prada. “Wake up,” he blasts, explaining the uncomfortable reality of what happens when financial kidnappers dress up as loyal patriots and extort money in the name of the common good.

 

“Today’s ransom is the billions of dollars in the form of QE; today’s hostage is the US economy which the kidnappers threaten to kill by a collapse in asset prices if they don’t get more and more free money… and who is paying the ransom… it is the Federal Reserve…

 

The message from Wall Street – the kidnapper – is: if you don’t give us what we want, we will killl the economy.”

 


    



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The Fed, The Taper & What Happens "When The Kidnapper Wears Prada"

The rich continue to grow richer, and as David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) so eloquently explains in this brief clip, this has pushed the Fed into a corner. As the Federal Reserve gets a new chair and decides what to do next, whether to print $85 billion a month more or not, McWilliams examines the heist that is the new normal financialized economy – who gets all the loot and why today’s kidnappers wear Prada. “Wake up,” he blasts, explaining the uncomfortable reality of what happens when financial kidnappers dress up as loyal patriots and extort money in the name of the common good.

 

“Today’s ransom is the billions of dollars in the form of QE; today’s hostage is the US economy which the kidnappers threaten to kill by a collapse in asset prices if they don’t get more and more free money… and who is paying the ransom… it is the Federal Reserve…

 

The message from Wall Street – the kidnapper – is: if you don’t give us what we want, we will killl the economy.”

 


    



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T Minus 60 Minutes: This Is Where The Market Stands Right Now

The anxiety is palpable (despite the constant reassurance that it’s all priced in). Stocks are sliding back to unchanged (on the heels of AUDJPY weakness); VIX is flat at 2-month highs; bonds are notably weaker (not helped by the dismal 5Y auction); and gold and silver are oscillating (on the rise in the last few minutes).

 


    



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The US Budget "Deal" Summarized (In One Cartoon)

Context is key…

A greater-than $1 trillion (spending) budget heralded as a triumph on the basis that they raised $20 billion in additional revenue (oh and spent an additional $63 billion in anti-sequester outflows).

h/t Investors via The Burning Platform blog

And how the deal got done… Mother Jones explains… why military spending is the glue holding the budget deal together…

The House just passed the Ryan-Murray budget deal, signaling an unexpected end to the cycle of budget crises and fiscal hostage-taking. A few weeks ago, such an agreement seemed distant. Sequestration had few friends on the Hill, but the parties could not agree on how to ditch the automatic budget cuts to defense and domestic spending. Republicans had proposed increasing defense spending while taking more money from Obamacare and other social programs, while Democrats said they’d scale back the defense cuts in exchange for additional tax revenue. Those ideas were nonstarters: Following the government shutdown in October, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) called the idea of trading Social Security cuts for bigger defense budgets “stupid.”

 

Which explains why Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Patty Murray’s deal craftily dodged taxes and entitlements while focusing on the one thing most Republicans and Democrats could agree upon: saving the Pentagon budget. Ryan’s budget committee previously declared the sequester “devastating to America’s defense capabilities.” Murray had warned of layoffs for defense workers in her state of Washington as well as cuts to combat training if sequestration stayed in place.

The chart above shows why military spending is the glue holding the budget deal together. It also shows how any remaining opposition to the bill in the Senate may bring together even stranger bedfellows than Ryan and Murray: progressive dove Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and sequestration fan Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ZW1P8e4oTHc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The US Budget “Deal” Summarized (In One Cartoon)

Context is key…

A greater-than $1 trillion (spending) budget heralded as a triumph on the basis that they raised $20 billion in additional revenue (oh and spent an additional $63 billion in anti-sequester outflows).

h/t Investors via The Burning Platform blog

And how the deal got done… Mother Jones explains… why military spending is the glue holding the budget deal together…

The House just passed the Ryan-Murray budget deal, signaling an unexpected end to the cycle of budget crises and fiscal hostage-taking. A few weeks ago, such an agreement seemed distant. Sequestration had few friends on the Hill, but the parties could not agree on how to ditch the automatic budget cuts to defense and domestic spending. Republicans had proposed increasing defense spending while taking more money from Obamacare and other social programs, while Democrats said they’d scale back the defense cuts in exchange for additional tax revenue. Those ideas were nonstarters: Following the government shutdown in October, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) called the idea of trading Social Security cuts for bigger defense budgets “stupid.”

 

Which explains why Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Patty Murray’s deal craftily dodged taxes and entitlements while focusing on the one thing most Republicans and Democrats could agree upon: saving the Pentagon budget. Ryan’s budget committee previously declared the sequester “devastating to America’s defense capabilities.” Murray had warned of layoffs for defense workers in her state of Washington as well as cuts to combat training if sequestration stayed in place.

The chart above shows why military spending is the glue holding the budget deal together. It also shows how any remaining opposition to the bill in the Senate may bring together even stranger bedfellows than Ryan and Murray: progressive dove Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and sequestration fan Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).


    



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Boomer Reality: 61…And Still Living In The Basement

87-year-old Lew Manchester has just returned from a 3-week trip touring Buddhist temples in Laos and cruising the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. His 61-year-old daughter Lee lives year-round in the basement of her friend’s Cape Cod cottage, venturing into the winter cold to get to the bathroom. As Bloomberg reports, Lew is making the most of his old age. Lee is paring back and lightening her load as she looks ahead to her later years. Both worked all their lives, both saved what they could. “Timing is everything and my dad’s timing with jobs, real estate and retirement benefits was better,” said Lee. A rising tide of graying baby boomers is less secure financially and has a lower standard of living than their aged parents.

Via Bloomberg,

The median net worth for U.S. households headed by boomers aged 55 to 64 was almost 8 percent lower, at $143,964, than those 75 and older in 2011, according to Census Bureau data. Boomers lost more than other groups in the stock market and housing bust of 2008, and many also lost their jobs in the aftermath at a critical point in their productive years.

 

 

“Baby boomers are the first generation without the safety net of pensions and other benefits their parents have,” said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. “They’re facing a much more challenging old age.”

 

 

Lee said she harbors no resentment for her dad, who she credits with instilling her with a strong work ethic. “I was never allowed to dream,” she said. “My parents and then my husband expected me to work, and I couldn’t really think about what I most wanted to do.”

 

 

Lee is hardly the only baby boomer who didn’t save enough, worked for companies without 401(k) accounts or lost significant amounts in the financial crisis. Today, her retirement savings of $120,000 are right at the median 401(k) balance for households headed by baby boomers, according to 2011 data from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

 

That will provide just $4,800 a year to boomers when they turn 65, assuming they take out 4 percent annually, the limit financial planners say should be withdrawn to assure retirees don’t run out of money in their lifetimes.

 

 

Had boomers like Lee been thriftier, they would have still been hurt by a shift to 401(k) accounts from pensions in the 1980s. Thirty-seven percent of the elderly in the U.S. collect pensions, which provide some guaranteed income until they die. Fewer than 10 percent of boomers collect pensions, and that number is quickly shrinking.

 

 

“She has never complained to me about not having enough money,” he said. “But if she needs it, I’ll advance it.”

 

Lee, who has repaid the money she borrowed, avoids dwelling on her difficulties during her weekly calls to her dad.

 

“I know he’ll help me if I fall off the ledge, but he taught me to be self-sufficient,” she said.

 

 

It’s liberating finally getting to a point in my life where I don’t need a lot of stuff,” she said. “I felt like I was getting rid of the baggage of life that I’d kept dragging behind me and which was just weighing me down.”

 

 

Lee doesn’t regret downsizing her life. She has more time than ever to enjoy the outdoors, read and spend time with her friends.

 

“There’s so much pressure to keep up, to keep buying things, to stay on the treadmill always hoping to have more,” she said. “Well, less can be better.”


    



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Poor 5 Year Auction With Huge Tail Sticksaved By Primary Dealers

If Yesterday’s 2 Year auction was strong to quite strong, with a soaring Bid to Cover and a yield stopping through the When Issued, today’s 5 Year auction of $35 billion in 5 Year paper was ugly to very ugly. With a When Issued trading at 1.578% at 1 pm, there appears to have been an air pocket at the time of pricing, which concluded at a high yield of 1.600%, a rather massive 2.2 bps tail, and a surprising outcome for auctions on this side of the belly. Additionally, this yield was just shy of the 2013 auction highs which hit 1.624% at the peak of Taper Tantrum mania in August. Furthermore, while Bids to Cover in the short end of the spectrum have been steadily rising in recent months, today’s auction saw a pronounced drop in the BTC from 2.61 to 2.42, the lowest since August, and well below the TTM average of 2.67. But the real story was in the internals, where Directs took down 11.8%, just shy of the 14.6% TTM average, but it was the Plunge in Indirects from 50% to half that number, or 25.8% that was the true surprise, as it was the lowest Indirect take down since December of 2008!

This meant that the natural backstop, Primary Dealers, had no choice but to buy 62.4% of the final allocation, the highest allotment since April of 2009. In other words, while the near end of the curve is well bid, things are starting to go bump in the night at or around the belly of the curve. Look for much more pain if indeed the Fed were to announce the start of tapering today.


    

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Guess The Smogged City

Residents of this city woke on Wednesday to a third day of thick gray smog which has disrupted dozens of flights and train services and caused a rash of health complaints. As Reuters reports, the toxic levels of pollution, fuelled by industrial growth a surge in the numbers of vehicles crowding their roads, are more than 7x what the nation deems safe and what the US EPA calls “hazardous”. But it’s not in China…

 

 

 

The answer…


    



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Mortgage Applications Collapse To New 13-Year Low

Despite yesterday’s exuberant spike in optimism from the NAHB sentiment index to 8 year highs, the delusion from reality appears to growing ever wider. This morning’s “if we build them, they will buy’em” false headline spike in housing starts (seasonally-adjusted) is yet another delusional divergence as the mortgage applications index collapses (down 60% from 2013 highs) to a new 13-year low.

New 13-year lows in mortgage applications…

 

but, hey, seasonally-adjusted we’ll just keep building…

 

Charts: Bloomberg


    



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