Tag: finance

Authored by Andrew Batson and Tom Miller of Evergreen Gavekal,

As China’s leaders in recent weeks have laid out an ambitious agenda for market-driven economic reforms, one element has been strangely lacking: urbanization. Premier Li Keqiang made this his signature issue during his years as deputy to the former premier, and has frequently talked up the potential for urbanization to drive China’s future growth. Yet, a coherent urbanization policy has been nowhere to be found, as Li’s desire for a healthier, more “people-focused” mode of urban growth clashed with local governments’ desire to keep spending on infrastructure and real estate.

This logjam looks to have finally broken over the weekend, when top Chinese leaders held both the annual Central Economic Work Conference to set policy goals for 2014, and a Central Urbanization Work Conference to lay the groundwork for an urbanization plan to be published next year. On balance, the news from these events is good for current and future residents of Chinese cities—but bad for those investors who may still be bullish on commodity prices.

As the chart below shows, the acceleration in urbanization over the last decade was accompanied by a rise in global commodity prices, thanks to a surge in raw material demand from construction. However, the pace of physical urbanization is far more likely to slow than to accelerate—a trend already reflected in the flat performance of global commodity prices. Rather than dreaming up new ways of driving urban expansion, the leadership in Beijing has become increasingly concerned about the excesses committed by city governments who all want to be the next Shanghai. “Not every city can become a giant,” warned the statement released from the urbanization conference. It emphasized that urbanization is a natural economic process, and that the government should be removing artificial barriers rather than trying to force urban growth through administrative decrees.

At the Central Economic Work Conference held a year ago, the top six priorities included a call for “actively promoting” urbanization since it has “the most potential for expanding domestic demand.” At this year’s conference, promoting urbanization did not make it into the list of priorities at all; in its place was a call to control the risks of the debts accumulated by local governments in their heedless drive for expanding cities. The change in direction could not be clearer. Rather than try to launch a new round of urbanization-led growth, the new leadership is instead focused on cleaning up the social and financial consequences of the past decade’s urbanization boom. The issues that need tackling include: a marginalized population of rural migrant workers; high local government debt; an oversupply of housing in many cities.

As we have long argued, the issue that China faces is not that urbanization is too slow and needs to accelerate, but that the urbanization that is happening is incomplete. Ineligible for core urban services like education and healthcare, most rural migrants find it hard to settle down permanently in cities or advance into higher-paying white-collar jobs. The “new-style” and “people-focused” urbanization that Premier Li has been promoting is essentially about better integrating existing migrants into the urban economy and society. Ultimately this is a question of money: allowing rural migrants to access the same benefits as existing urban residents will require new sources of and structures for public spending. The details of how this change will work are still unclear, but will likely involve both the central government taking more fiscal responsibility for public services, and local authorities getting more fund-raising powers.

As these problems are sorted out, the pace of urbanization will decelerate—a natural consequence of the slowdown in overall economic growth, and therefore of the job creation that drives rural-urban migration. The urban population has grown by about 21mn people a year since the late 1990s. Some scholars at the Development Research Center, a government think tank, expect the rate of urbanization is unlikely to exceed 17mn a year over the next decade—though we are somewhat more optimistic. In any case, the “people-focused” urbanization strategy will show up more as gains in urban incomes and consumption than as another surge in urban population growth and construction.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8s5mN3oaMO8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Recently some of the more naive, not to mention top-ticking, financial commentators assumed that just because US regulators had not snapped shut a trap surrounding Bitcoin and other digital currencies yet, that this state of blissful cohabitation would continue indefinitely. Unfortunately, as we warned back in March during the initial leg higher in BTC following the Cyprus deposit confiscations, the well-known “honeypot” strategy was meant to draw out as many digital currency fans and participants as possible – who after all were warned by none other than the ECB that the current regime will never adopt a parallel, and quite threatening monetary unit – only to see the regulatory and enforcement fist of the nation that (still) hosts the reserve currency slowly but surely start to clench around the binary currency.

 Because, finally, after testing the ground long enough, the fist is starting to not only close but squeeze tight. And as Reuters reports, it is the U.S. Treasury Department’s anti money-laundering unit that is now warning businesses linked to Bitcoin that they “may have to comply with federal law and regulation as money transmitters, a Treasury spokesman said. ” Specifically, the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has sent “industry outreach” letters to about a dozen firms, regarding potential anti-money laundering compliance obligations related to Bitcoin businesses, FinCEN spokesman Steve Hudak told Thomson Reuters’ regulatory information service Compliance Complete.

What is interesting is that unlike in traditional cases of money laundering, where the law is cut and dry, in the case of digital currencies, nobody really knows what the Treasury’s jurisdiction – if any – or the law is. Which is why FinCEN is not only treading lightly but effectively giving so-called offenders a warning in advance of potential future action.

According to Reuters, a legal expert with years of experience representing digital currency firms said FinCEN seemed to be establishing a new regulatory enforcement precedent by warning individual businesses of compliance obligations before taking action. “Is this setting a new standard that in the future if there are any questionable business models there will be notice given before any action is taken?” said Carol Van Cleef, a partner with the Washington law firm Patton Boggs LLP. In response, Hudak said the letters are an attempt at gathering information. He likened them to the letters that banks sometimes send to customers seeking information about the customer’s transactions in an effort to determine whether suspect transactions are truly linked to illicit activity.

Actually no: this is not a standard, new or otherwise, but is merely meant to telegraph the authorities displeasure with ongoing digital monetary activities, with an intent of halting all major activity before an enforcement mandate is handed down.

In the meantime, FinCEN’s letters have had a “chilling effect” on Bitcoin businesses, which are intimidated by the threat of civil and criminal sanctions for non-compliance, said Jon Matonis, executive director of the Bitcoin Foundation, an advocacy group. The firms, he said, may effectively be “put out of business in an extrajudicial manner.”

Which, basically, means the US government wants you to shut down regardless of what the law says. Which is precisely what happened with Utah’s digital-to-coin converter Casascius as we reported previously.

And, as Reuters further adds, the fist grab is almost ready to pulverize:

While some Bitcoin businesses reject FinCEN’s assertion that they are money transmitters, a number have still registered with the agency, a search of the Treasury bureau’s website shows.

FinCEN sent letters to Bitcoin-related businesses on the Internet that appeared to fall under its definition of money transmitters but had not registered, Hudak said. He said FinCEN will keep sending letters to unregistered Bitcoin businesses.

“As we come across them, and as people tip us off, we’ll make inquiries. That is part of what we do,” Hudak said.

Perhaps this explains why at last check Bitcoin was now under $700 and gradually drifting lower. After all Uncle Sam is no longer shy about his true intentions regarding the digital currency.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IWLmo3bD4zQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Recently some of the more naive, not to mention top-ticking, financial commentators assumed that just because US regulators had not snapped shut a trap surrounding Bitcoin and other digital currencies yet, that this state of blissful cohabitation would continue indefinitely. Unfortunately, as we warned back in March during the initial leg higher in BTC following the Cyprus deposit confiscations, the well-known “honeypot” strategy was meant to draw out as many digital currency fans and participants as possible – who after all were warned by none other than the ECB that the current regime will never adopt a parallel, and quite threatening monetary unit – only to see the regulatory and enforcement fist of the nation that (still) hosts the reserve currency slowly but surely start to clench around the binary currency.

 Because, finally, after testing the ground long enough, the fist is starting to not only close but squeeze tight. And as Reuters reports, it is the U.S. Treasury Department’s anti money-laundering unit that is now warning businesses linked to Bitcoin that they “may have to comply with federal law and regulation as money transmitters, a Treasury spokesman said. ” Specifically, the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has sent “industry outreach” letters to about a dozen firms, regarding potential anti-money laundering compliance obligations related to Bitcoin businesses, FinCEN spokesman Steve Hudak told Thomson Reuters’ regulatory information service Compliance Complete.

What is interesting is that unlike in traditional cases of money laundering, where the law is cut and dry, in the case of digital currencies, nobody really knows what the Treasury’s jurisdiction – if any – or the law is. Which is why FinCEN is not only treading lightly but effectively giving so-called offenders a warning in advance of potential future action.

According to Reuters, a legal expert with years of experience representing digital currency firms said FinCEN seemed to be establishing a new regulatory enforcement precedent by warning individual businesses of compliance obligations before taking action. “Is this setting a new standard that in the future if there are any questionable business models there will be notice given before any action is taken?” said Carol Van Cleef, a partner with the Washington law firm Patton Boggs LLP. In response, Hudak said the letters are an attempt at gathering information. He likened them to the letters that banks sometimes send to customers seeking information about the customer’s transactions in an effort to determine whether suspect transactions are truly linked to illicit activity.

Actually no: this is not a standard, new or otherwise, but is merely meant to telegraph the authorities displeasure with ongoing digital monetary activities, with an intent of halting all major activity before an enforcement mandate is handed down.

In the meantime, FinCEN’s letters have had a “chilling effect” on Bitcoin businesses, which are intimidated by the threat of civil and criminal sanctions for non-compliance, said Jon Matonis, executive director of the Bitcoin Foundation, an advocacy group. The firms, he said, may effectively be “put out of business in an extrajudicial manner.”

Which, basically, means the US government wants you to shut down regardless of what the law says. Which is precisely what happened with Utah’s digital-to-coin converter Casascius as we reported previously.

And, as Reuters further adds, the fist grab is almost ready to pulverize:

While some Bitcoin businesses reject FinCEN’s assertion that they are money transmitters, a number have still registered with the agency, a search of the Treasury bureau’s website shows.

FinCEN sent letters to Bitcoin-related businesses on the Internet that appeared to fall under its definition of money transmitters but had not registered, Hudak said. He said FinCEN will keep sending letters to unregistered Bitcoin businesses.

“As we come across them, and as people tip us off, we’ll make inquiries. That is part of what we do,” Hudak said.

Perhaps this explains why at last check Bitcoin was now under $700 and gradually drifting lower. After all Uncle Sam is no longer shy about his true intentions regarding the digital currency.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IWLmo3bD4zQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Julian Adorney of the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Many Americans, from the Glenview State Bank of Chicago to author Ellen Brown assume that the Nazi economic regime was successful, but closer examination tells a tale of rationing, shortages, and starvation. Learning why their economy failed can teach us how to avoid the same fate.

 

Background

The myth endures that after Hitler inherited a country ravaged by the Great Depression in 1933, his aggressive policies turned the nation around and created an economic powerhouse. But the truth, as Professor Evans of the University of Cambridge argues in his seminal history The Third Reich Trilogy, is something far different.

Evans, a Marxist sympathetic to Keynes and state intervention, nonetheless tells a story of rationing, shortages, and misery in the Third Reich. The Reich Food Estate, the state-controlled corporation responsible for agricultural production, regularly failed to feed its people. Agricultural output rarely surpassed 1913 levels, in spite of 20 years of technological advancement. Demand outstripped supply by 30 percent in basic foodstuffs like pork, fruit, and fats. That meant that for every ten German workers who stood in line to buy meat from the state-owned supply depots, three went home hungry.

The same story was retold when it came to cars, clothing, and iron. New houses had to be built with wooden plumbing, because iron was so scarce. Nationalized iron depots couldn’t produce enough for the army, let alone civilians. Clothing was rationed. Fuel and rubber shortages led to what one US observer called, “drastic restrictions on the use of motor vehicles.” Of course, because the state dictated which car and truck models could be produced, there weren’t very many motor vehicles to begin with.

The overall tale is one of misery for the average German citizen. So how did the Nazis so hurt their people, and what lessons can we learn?

 

Lesson 1: Military Keynesianism Produces Austerity

Hitler’s rearmament program was military Keynesianism on a vast scale. Hermann Goering, Hitler’s economic administrator, poured every available resource into making planes, tanks, and guns. In 1933 German military spending was 750 million Reichsmarks. By 1938 it has risen to 17 billion with 21 percent of GDP was taken up by military spending. Government spending all told was 35 percent of Germany’s GDP.

Many liberals, especially Paul Krugman, routinely argue that our stimulus programs in America aren’t big enough, so when they fail it’s not an indictment of Keynesianism. Fair enough. But no-one could say that Hitler’s rearmament program was too small. Economists expected it to create a multiplier effect and jump-start a flagging economy. Instead, it produced military wealth while private citizens starved. Employed on the largest scale ever seen, military Keynesianism created only ruin.

 

Lesson 2: Production, Not Jobs

Economist Joan Robinson wrote that, “Hitler had found a cure against unemployment before Keynes finished explaining it.” And indeed, rearmament and nationalized industry put every available German to work. There were so many jobs that the Nazis complained of a labor shortage and brought women in to the workplace, even though they were ideologically opposed to it. Unemployment had been cured. And yet, the people routinely suffered shortages. Civilian wood and iron were rationed. Small businesses, from artisans to carpenters to cobblers, went under. Citizens could barely buy pork, and buying fat to make a luxury like a cake was impossible. Rationing and long lines at the central supply depots the Nazis installed became the norm.

Nazi Germany proves that curing unemployment should not be an end in itself. No doubt, jobs are important. But they are important for what they produce, not just by virtue of existing. Real growth means production of what people demand. It means making cars, growing food, building laptops, or commercial planes. Private production grows the economic pie and helps everyone to prosper. Without production, all that a job does is change a man from starving and unemployed to starving and employed.

 

Moving Forward

There are a thousand lessons to be learned from the Third Reich, from the evils of totalitarianism to the dangers of racial thinking. A key economic lesson is that, rather than curing the Great Depression, Hitler’s military Keynesianism on a massive scale left the German people starving and short of goods. It’s a lesson advocates of building tanks to make us rich, from John McCain to Paul Krugman (and now Shinzo Abe), would do well to learn.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/kmJ3oJQy0I8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

With climate change impacting the poles, the potential for trade routes and resource extraction are improving.. and with that the world’s powers are rattling sabres over who owns what. From Canada’s claims to Russia’s defense forces and China’s purposeful dependence-building aid to small Arctic states, everyone knows the stakes. So, with very few big new diamond mines having been developed in recent years, the FT reports that scientists have found a site containing the rocks that often produce diamonds – in Antarctica. The problem is that the frozen continent is protected from mining for decades under an international treaty.

 

Some color on the climate change impact on arctic resource extraction…

 

Via The FT,

In a frustrating discovery, scientists have found a site containing the rocks that often produce diamonds – in Antarctica. The problem is that the frozen continent is protected from mining for decades under an international treaty. Even if it were not, the prospect of drilling through layers of ice in a harsh climate is likely to deter many would-be miners.

 

Still, the discovery is scientifically significant…

 

“It’s the first kimberlite occurrence reported in Antarctica,” he said, referring to the carrot-shaped volcanic rock formations that have been found on other continents and have been a significant source of diamonds in places such as South Africa.

 

“It’s really not very surprising there are kimberlites there. We were lucky enough to be the first ones to find one.”

 

…

 

“You could see some mining companies might argue, ‘We can do this; we don’t have to waste this resource’,” said Dr Robert Larter of the British Antarctic Survey.

 

However, the physical obstacles are immense in a continent that is 99 per cent covered in ice, some of which is 3-4km thick, he said.

 

…

 

Very few big new diamond mines have been developed in recent years, leading to expectations of a squeeze in supply by the end of the decade. At present levels of output, existing reserves will sustain global diamond production for 18 years, according to research by Bain & Co this year. About 70 per cent of the world’s 2.3bn carats of diamond reserves are in Russia and Africa.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/xFJ1zqucaEw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

China’s crackdown on extravagance and its anti-corruption campaign appears to be having a significant impact as Bain & Co reports that spending on luxury goods is estimated to grow at only 2% in 2013 – its slowest pace since 2000 (and dramatically lower than the 7% growth last year). “The mindset among global brands [in China] is changing from ‘where do we find growth’ to ‘how do we create growth’,” Bloomberg reports as “gifting” to high-ranking officials – one of the major growth engines of the industry – has crushed luxury watch sales down 11% in 2013. Ironically, given yesterday’s mall-jumping news, female shoppers are picking up some of the slack with shoes growing 8-10%. New store openings fell by 33%.

 

 

Via Bloomberg,

China’s luxury spending grew this year at the slowest pace since at least 2000 as more shoppers traveled abroad and the government’s anti-corruption efforts curbed purchases, consultant Bain & Co. said.

 

Spending in luxury goods is estimated to have increased about 2 percent in 2013, compared with 7 percent last year, the Boston, Massachusetts-based company said in a report released yesterday. Growth in 2014 will be at a pace similar to this year, it said.

 

Demand for luxury items from Swiss watches and expensive liquor have slumped since President Xi Jinping ordered officials to cut down on lavish spending and stepped up investigations into graft.

 

…

 

China’s crackdown on extravagance and its anti-corruption campaign had a “large” impact on gifting, one of the major growth engines of the industry, and that hit sales of watches and menswear the most this year, Bain said. Sales of luxury timepieces declined by 11 percent in 2013, it said.

 

…

 

Chinese consumers, who last year overtook shoppers in the U.S. to become the world’s biggest buyers of personal luxury items, account for 29 percent of global purchases, Bain said.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/xlSW-BRztbE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

During 2013, America continued to steadily march down a self-destructive path toward oblivion.  As a society, our debt levels are completely and totally out of control.  Our financial system has been transformed into the largest casino on the entire planet and our big banks are behaving even more recklessly than they did just before the last financial crisis.  We continue to see thousands of businesses and millions of jobs get shipped out of the United States, and the middle class is being absolutely eviscerated.  Due to the lack of decent jobs, poverty is absolutely exploding.  Government dependence is at an all-time high and crime is rising.  Evidence of social and moral decay is seemingly everywhere, and our government appears to be going insane.  If we are going to have any hope of solving these problems, the American people need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and finally admit how bad things have actually become.

If we all just blindly have faith that "everything is going to be okay", the consequences of decades of incredibly foolish decisions are going to absolutely blindside us and we will be absolutely devastated by the great crisis that is rapidly approaching.  The United States is in a massive amount of trouble, and it is time that we all started facing the truth.  The following are 83 numbers from 2013 that are almost too crazy to believe…

#1 Most people that hear this statistic do not believe that it is actually true, but right now an all-time record 102 million working age Americans do not have a job.  That number has risen by about 27 million since the year 2000.

#2 Because of the lack of jobs, poverty is spreading like wildfire in the United States.  According to the most recent numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, an all-time record 49.2 percent of all Americans are receiving benefits from at least one government program each month.

#3 As society breaks down, the government feels a greater need than ever before to watch, monitor and track the population.  For example, every single day the NSA intercepts and permanently stores close to 2 billion emails and phone calls in addition to a whole host of other data.

#4 The Bank for International Settlements says that total public and private debt levels around the globe are now 30 percent higher than they were back during the financial crisis of 2008.

#5 According to a recent World Bank report, private domestic debt in China has grown from 9 trillion dollars in 2008 to 23 trillion dollars today.

#6 In 1985, there were more than 18,000 banks in the United States.  Today, there are only 6,891 left.

#7 The six largest banks in the United States (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) have collectively gotten 37 percent larger over the past five years.

#8 The U.S. banking system has 14.4 trillion dollars in total assets.  The six largest banks now account for 67 percent of those assets and all of the other banks account for only 33 percent of those assets.

#9 JPMorgan Chase is roughly the size of the entire British economy.

#10 The five largest banks now account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States.

#11 Right now, four of the "too big to fail" banks each have total exposure to derivatives that is well in excess of 40 trillion dollars.

#12 The total exposure that Goldman Sachs has to derivatives contracts is more than 381 times greater than their total assets.

#13 According to the Bank for International Settlements, the global financial system has a total of 441 trillion dollars worth of exposure to interest rate derivatives.

#14 Through the end of November, approximately 365,000 Americans had signed up for Obamacare but approximately 4 million Americans had already lost their current health insurance policies because of Obamacare.

#15 It is being projected that up to 100 million more Americans could have their health insurance policies canceled by the time Obamacare is fully rolled out.

#16 At this point, 82.4 million Americans live in a home where at least one person is enrolled in the Medicaid program.

#17 It is has been estimated that Obamacare will add 21 million more Americans to the Medicaid rolls.

#18 It is being projected that hea
lth insurance premiums for healthy 30-year-old men will rise by an average of 260 percent under Obamacare.

#19 One couple down in Texas received a letter from their health insurance company that informed them that they were being hit with a 539 percent rate increase because of Obamacare.

#20 Back in 1999, 64.1 percent of all Americans were covered by employment-based health insurance.  Today, only 54.9 percent of all Americans are covered by employment-based health insurance.

#21 The U.S. government has spent an astounding 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs over the past five years.

#22 Incredibly, 74 percent of all the wealth in the United States is owned by the wealthiest 10 percent of all Americans.

#23 According to Consumer Reports, the number of children in the United States taking antipsychotic drugs has nearly tripled over the past 15 years.

#24 The marriage rate in the United States has fallen to an all-time low.  Right now it is sitting at a yearly rate of just 6.8 marriages per 1000 people.

#25 According to a shocking new study, the average American that turned 65 this year will receive $327,500 more in federal benefits than they paid in taxes over the course of their lifetimes.

#26 In just one week in December, a combined total of more than 2000 new cold temperature and snowfall records were set in the United States.

#27 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row.

#28 The rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.

#29 Only 47 percent of all adults in America have a full-time job at this point.

#30 The unemployment rate in the eurozone recently hit a new all-time high of 12.2 percent.

#31 If you assume that the labor force participation rate in the U.S. is at the long-term average, the unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent.

#32 In November 2000, 64.3 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  When Barack Obama first entered the White House, 60.6 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  Today, only 58.6 percent of all working age Americans have a job.

#33 There are 1,148,000 fewer Americans working today than there was in November 2006.  Meanwhile, our population has grown by more than 16 million people during that time frame.

#34 Only 19 percent of all Americans believe that the job market is better than it was a year ago.

#35 Just 14 percent of all Americans believe that the stock market will rise next year.

#36 According to CNBC, Pinterest is currently valued at more than 3 billion dollars even though it has never earned a profit.

#37 Twitter is a seven-year-old company that has never made a profit.  It actually lost 64.6 million dollars last quarter.  But according to the financial markets it is currently worth about 22 billion dollars.

#38 Right now, Facebook is trading at a valuation that is equivalent to approximately 100 years of earnings, and it is currently supposedly worth about 115 billion dollars.

#39 Total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#40 Student loans are up by an astounding 61 percent over the past three years.

#41 At this moment, there are 6 million Americans in the 16 to 24-year-old age group that are neither in school or working.

#42 The "inactivity rate" for men in their prime working years (25 to 54) has just hit a brand new all-time record high.

#43 It is hard to believe, but in America today one out of every ten jobs is now filled by a temp agency.

#44 Middle-wage jobs accounted for 60 percent of the jobs lost during the last recession, but they have accounted for only 22 percent of the jobs created since then.

#45 According to the Social Security Administration, 40 percent of all U.S. workers make less than $20,000 a year.

#46 Approximately one out of every four part-time workers in America is living below the poverty line.

#47 After accounting for inflation, 40 percent of all U.S. workers are making less than what a full-time minimum wage worker made back in 1968.

#48 When Barack Obama took office, the average duration of unemployment in this country was 19.8 weeks.  Today, it is 37.2 weeks.

#49 Investors pulled an astounding 72 billion dollars out of bond mutual funds in 2013.  It was the worst year for bond funds ever.

#50 Small business is rapidly dying in America.  At this point, only about 7 percent of all non-farm workers in the United States are self-employed.  That is an all-time record low.

#51 The six heirs of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton have as much wealth as the bottom one-third of all Americans combined.

#52 Once January 1st hits, it will officially be illegal to manufacture or import traditional incandescent light bulbs in the United States.  It is being projected that millions of Americans will attempt to stock up on the old light bulbs before they are totally gone from store shelves.

#53 The Japanese government has estimated that approximately 300 tons of highly radioactive water is being released into the Pacific Ocean from the destroyed Fukushima nuclear facility every single day.

#54 Back in 1967, the U.S. military had more than 31,000 strategic nuclear warheads.  That number is already being cut down to 1,550, and now Barack Obama wants to reduce it to only about 1,000.

#55 As you read this, 60 percent of all children in Detroit are living in poverty and there are approximately 78,000 abandoned homes in the city.

#56 Wal-Mart recently opened up two new stores in Washington D.C., and more than 23,000 people applied for just 600 positions.  That means that only about 2.6 percent of the applicants were ultimately hired.  In comparison, Harvard offers admission to 6.1 percent of their applicants.

#57 At this point, almost half of all public school students in America come from low income homes.

#58 Tragically, there are 1.2 million students that attend public schools in the United States that are homeless.  That number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession.

#59 According to a Gallup poll that was recently released, 20.0 percent of all Americans did not have enough money to buy food that they or their families needed at some point over the past year.  That is just under the all-time record of 20.4 percent that was set back in November 2008.

#60 The number of Americans on food stamps has grown from 17 million in the year 2000 to more than 47 million today.

#61 Right now, one out of every five households in the United States is on food stamps.

#62 The U.S. economy loses approximately 9,000 jobs for every 1 billion dollars of goods that are imported from overseas.

#63 Back in 1950, more than 80 percent of all men in the United States had jobs.  Today, less than 65 percent of all men in the United States have jobs.

#64 According to one survey, approximately 75 percent of all American women do not have any interest in dating unemployed men.

#65 China exports 4 billion pounds of food to the United States every year.

#66 Overall, the United States has run a trade deficit of more than 8 trillion dollars with the rest of the world since 1975.

#67 The number of Americans on Social Security Disability now exceeds the entire population of Greece, and the number of Americans on food stamps now exceeds the entire population of Spain.

#68 It is being projected that the number of Americans on Social Security will rise from 57 million today to more than 100 million in 25 years.

#69 Back in 1970, the total amount of debt in the United States (government debt + business debt + consumer debt, etc.) was less than 2 trillion dollars.  Today it is over 56 trillion dollars.

#70 Back on September 30th, 2012 our national debt was sitting at a total of 16.1 trillion dollars.  Today, it is up to 17.2 trillion dollars.

#71 The U.S. government "rolled over" more than 7.5 trillion dollars of existing debt in fiscal 2013.

#72 If the U.S. national debt was reduced to a stack of one dollar bills it would circle the earth at the equator 45 times.

#73 When Barack Obama was first elected, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio was under 70 percent.  Today, it is up to 101 percent.

#74 The U.S. national debt is on pace to more than double during the eight years of the Obama administration.  In other words, under Barack Obama the U.S. government will accumulate more debt than it did under all of the other presidents in U.S. history combined.

#75 The federal government is borrowing (stealing) roughly 100 million dollars from our children and our grandchildren every single hour of every single day.

#76 At this point, the U.S. already has more government debt per capita than Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland or Spain.

#77 Japan now has a debt to GDP ratio of more than 211 percent.

#78 As of December 5th, 83 volcanic eruptions had been recorded around the planet so far this year.  That is a new all-time record high.

#79 53 percent of all Americans do not have a 3 day supply of nonperishable food and water in their homes.

#80 Violent crime in the United States was up 15 percent last year.

#81 According to a very surprising survey that was recently conducted, 68 percent of all Americans believe that the country is currently on the wrong track.

#82 Back in 1972, 46 percent of all Americans believed that "most people can be trusted".  Today, only 32 percent of all Americans believe that "most people can be trusted".

#83 According to a recent Pew Research survey, only 19 percent of all Americans trust the government.   Back in 1958, 73 percent of all Americans trusted the government.

So do you have any numbers from 2013 that you would add to this list?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/_uEa6hzNrs0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

On January 29, 1845, the New York Evening Mirror published a poem that would go on to be one of the most celebrated narrative poems ever penned. It depicted a tragic romantic’s desperate descent into madness over the loss of his love; and it made its author, Edgar Allan Poe, one of the most feted poets of his time.

The poem was entitled “The Raven,” and its star was an ominous black bird that visits an unnamed narrator who is lamenting the loss of his true love…

So, with the vision firmly planted in your mind’s eye of a man completely out of touch with reality, seeking wisdom from a mysterious talking bird — knowing that there is only one response, no matter the question — Dear Reader, allow me to present to you a chart. It is one I have used before, but its importance is enormous, and it will form the foundation of this week’s discussion (alongside a few others that break it down into its constituent parts).

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you (drumroll please) total outstanding credit versus GDP in the United States from 1929 to 2012:

This one chart shows exactly WHY we are where we are, folks.

From the moment Richard Nixon toppled the US dollar from its golden foundation and ushered in the era of pure fiat money (oxymoron though that may be) on August 15, 1971, there has been a ubiquitous and dangerous synonym for “growth”: credit.

The world embarked upon a multi-decade credit-fueled binge and claimed the results as growth.

Fanciful.

Floated ever higher on a cushion of credit that has expanded exponentially, as you can see. (The expansion of true growth would have been largely linear — though one can only speculate as to the trajectory of that GDP line had so much credit NOT been extended.) The world has congratulated itself on its “outperformance,” when the truth is that bills have been run up relentlessly, with only the occasional hiccup along the way (each of which has manifested itself as a violent reaction to the over-extension of cheap money).

…

 

Folks, rates WILL have to go up again. They cannot stay at zero forever. We all know that. When they DO, because of all the additional debt that has been ladled atop the existing pile, the whole thing will come tumbling down.

All of it.

There is simply no way out, I am afraid. But that is clearly a problem for another day. Right now, everything is fine, so we can all go on pretending it will continue that way.

Evermore.

So now, if you’ll indulge me in a little poetic license (not to mention there being not one but four mysterious strangers in my offering), I give you, “The Maven” (abridged version):

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of financial lore
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door.
“‘Tis some visiter,” I muttered, “tapping at my chamber door
Only this and nothing more.”

Ah, distinctly I remember it was in the bleak December;
And each separate dying ember wrought its ghost upon the floor.
Eagerly I wished the morrow; — for the world had sought to borrow
From both friend and foe and neighbour — borrow, borrow, borrow more
For the cheap and easy money which the bankers forth did pour
Shall be paid back nevermore.

Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there wondering, fearing,
Doubting, dreaming dreams no mortal ever dared to dream before;
But the silence was unbroken, and the stillness gave no token,
And the only word there spoken was the whispered words, “Some More?”
This I whispered, and an echo murmured back the words, “Some More”
Merely this and nothing more.

Open here I flung the shutter, when, with many a flirt and flutter,
In there stepped four stately Mavens from the Central Banks of yore;
Not the least obeisance made they; not a minute stopped or stayed they;
But, with air of lord or lady, stood inside my chamber door —
Standing by a mug from Dallas just inside my chamber door —
Stood, and stared, and nothing more.

Then these tired-looking men beguiling my sad fancy into smiling,
By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance they wore,
“Though thy faces look unshaven, thou,” I said, “art sure enslaven’d,
Ghastly grim and ancient Mavens wandering from the Nightly shore —
To free money ever after lest the markets pitch and yaw.”
Quoth the Mavens, “Evermore.”

While I marvelled this ungainly bearded man explained so plainly,
Though his answer little meaning — little relevancy bore;
For he cannot help a-printing, brand new currency a-minting
Ever yet was blessed with seeing nothing wrong in doing more
Mortgage bonds upon his balance sheet he’ll place, then markets jaw
With the promise “Evermore.”

“You there” said I, “standing muted — what is there to do aboot it?”
In a heavy accent quoth he — that by God he was quite sure
That more money being printed and, new measures being hinted
At would quell all fear of meltdown and the markets all would soar
Would this mean the printing presses would forever roar?
Quoth the Maven, “Evermore.”

Lastly to the fore there strode a small and bookish man, Kuroda,
Who with glint of eye did warn that he was happy to explore
Measures once thought so outrageous as to never mark the pages
In the history of finance — but those times were days of yore
Drastic printing was required, this was tantamount to war
Quoth the Maven, “Evermore.”

And the Mavens, never blinking, only sitting, only thinking
By the Cowboys mug from Dallas just inside my chamber door;
Really do believe their action has created decent traction,
And that freshly printed money can spew forth for evermore;
But the truth about the ending shall be seen when markets, bending
Shall be lifted — nevermore!

The full must-read Grant Williams letter is below:

Ttmygh Dec 09 2013

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7L3XWWDOLU0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Just because we thought it worthwhile to keep track of how out of control things are getting in Japan, a quick summary of this evening’s data. The Japanese trade balance (adjusted) shows a deficit for the 32nd month in a row and has surged to its largest (worst) level on record. It has missed expectations in 5 of the last 6 months. Imports rose more than expected again with a 10.2% MoM gain in imports from the US (and 35% YoY). This massive deficit is before the military spending unveiled last night has hit though one thing is certain, Goldman Sachs will be out with a report any second proclaiming the mythical J-curve about to arrive any moment… The reaction – JPY dumps and NKY explodes higher as bad news is good news in QQE land.

 

32nd and record monthly trade deficit…

 

as imports from the US explode…

 

The reaction

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4LNms-SvW2o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Just because we thought it worthwhile to keep track of how out of control things are getting in Japan, a quick summary of this evening’s data. The Japanese trade balance (adjusted) shows a deficit for the 32nd month in a row and has surged to its largest (worst) level on record. It has missed expectations in 5 of the last 6 months. Imports rose more than expected again with a 10.2% MoM gain in imports from the US (and 35% YoY). This massive deficit is before the military spending unveiled last night has hit though one thing is certain, Goldman Sachs will be out with a report any second proclaiming the mythical J-curve about to arrive any moment… The reaction – JPY dumps and NKY explodes higher as bad news is good news in QQE land.

 

32nd and record monthly trade deficit…

 

as imports from the US explode…

 

The reaction

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4LNms-SvW2o/story01.htm Tyler Durden