another site
The ratio of bulls to bears has never (that is ever) been higher according to (the perhaps ironically names) Investor’s Intelligence. There are now more than 4x more bulls than bears and even more concerning, the only time “bears” have been lower than the current 14.3% was in the spring of 1987…
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/hYOhrfvWFAY/story01.htm Tyler Durden
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,
The MSM is trying to spin the 110,000 sign ups in November as a fantastic result. When a “free” new entitlement is announced and rolled out in this country, they would normally be knocking down the doors to sign up. Anyone who really wants Obamacare has already signed up. The first two months should generate the biggest numbers. When you have only achieved 5% of your goal after two months, you’ve failed miserably. Obamacare is a disaster before it even gets off the ground and bankrupts the country. Young healthy people will never sign up for Obamacare. They know it’s a scam. They also know that Obama and his IRS minions are so incompetent, they’ll never figure out how to collect the fines from people who don’t sign up. Have you ever met an IRS employee?
But, the MSM will do their darndest to mislead the public about Obamacare success.
Behind Obamacare figures
The latest figures on Obamacare enrollment are out, and they have better but not great news for the White House. The stats show that Obamacare enrollees who have selected insurance plans through the federal HealthCare.gov website quadrupled from October to November, but other figures don’t show growth that rosy.
HHS figures show that HealthCare.gov enrolled 110,410 new consumers in health plans last month, more than four times that of the 26,794 signed up during October, as the troubled website started to work out the troubles it experienced from its inception Oct. 1.
Growth in the number of people processed through the system wasn’t as sharp. HHS figures indicate that 822,789 consumers were deemed eligible for health plans last month, up 17% from the 702,619 reported for October. The pace of those who completed applications for health coverage was slightly better, with November postings of 1.23 million, up 19% from the 993,635 reported for October.
Further, activity slowed significantly on both the federal and state marketplaces, though some of that wane can be attributed to initial heavy interest. After nearly 27 million unique users clamored to HealthCare.gov and the state websites in October, that slowed down to roughly 12.2 million in November, a drop of 54%. Calls to the various service centers dropped to 2.1 million from 3.2 million, falling by a third.
HHS officials said nearly 365,000 people have selected health plans from state and federal marketplaces since Oct. 1, with nearly two-thirds of that coming from the states. The number of federal marketplace enrollees deemed eligible for coverage is twice that of the state-run exchanges — at 1.5 million vs. the states’ 780,000.
In addition to the 365,000 nationwide sign-ups, more than 800,000 were deemed eligible for Medicaid or the federal Children’s Health Insurance Program. HealthCare.gov serves 36 states, while the 14 other states and the District of Columbia run their own exchanges.
HHS hopes to enroll 7 million people in health plans by March 31. It has been hampered severely by troubles with HealthCare.gov, which it says is operating smoothly for the bulk of consumers visiting the site.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8v_h99lqECs/story01.htm Tyler Durden
The following Third Point letter may or may not have been actually sent, although if indeed shareholder activists – more aggressive now than ever thanks to the brilliant idea of forcing management teams to lever themselves up to the gills with what for now appears to be cheap credit – do get some original ideas thanks to this particular Vanity Fair lampoon, then children around the world will have a fabricated Dan Loeb to thank for having their Christmas presents delivered by an army of highly efficient and profit-maximizing Amazon drones.
Source: a rather humorous Vanity Fair
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/xhu4iEozHuI/story01.htm Tyler Durden
December 11, 2013
Santiago, Chile
Earlier this week, Start-Up Chile announced the next round of new businesses who have been accepted to the program.
If you’re not familiar with it, Start-Up Chile is a government program that provides $40,000 in equity-free seed capital (plus a residency visa) to entrepreneurs and their startup companies who make the cut.
Now… in my worldview, this program shouldn’t even exist. This is a government program funded by Chilean taxpayers, and I don’t agree with the idea of government stealing people’s income for any reason.
Unfortunately we don’t get to live in a world where politicians cannot plunder the wealth of citizens.
But the compromise is that we get to vote with our feet and live where we want; we can choose to thrive in a place where taxation is relatively low… and where the politicians fund startups with taxpayer money rather than drones that drop bombs on children by remote control.
Chile is one of those places. It’s far from perfect, but the fundamentals are solid. The government balance sheet is strong– Chile has ZERO net debt. Yet the level of taxation here is among the lowest in the developed world.
So far Start-Up Chile has been a great success for the country.
I know many of the alumni who have come through the program, both foreign and local; several still operate their businesses here and have become successful, creating additional wealth and jobs in the local economy.
This latest round will bring in startups from 28 countries in industries as diverse as agriculture, travel, medical care, advertising, and cryptocurrencies. (Some of my students from our summer entrepreneurship camps have been accepted as well…)
I follow this closely, mostly because I’m an avid investor in startup companies.
With global markets trading at nose-bleed valuations, and almost every possible objective metric suggesting that a crash is coming, a conventional approach to investing seems crazy.
Besides, it’s clear that fundamentals no longer matter. Central bankers are spraying so much money into the system that the only thing driving stocks and bonds is the expectation of further printing. Central bankers have completely hijacked the markets.
I’m simply not willing to take Ben Bernanke on as my silent partner. This is why I invest in real assets– primarily, high quality agricultural properties and private operating businesses.
(Note- I didn’t say precious metals because gold and silver are a form of money to me, not an investment or speculation).
Given the long-term supply, demand, and policy fundamentals of agriculture, I think this sector is exactly the right place to be for the next decade. And owning physical, productive land is as close to the source as it gets.
Private businesses also make a lot of sense, allowing you to invest on the cutting edge of emerging trends and technologies, as opposed to big behemoth corporate bureaucracies. And while the risk potential is greater, so are the potential rewards.
I think any of us would have rather invested in Apple when it was just a startup in the Jobs family garage rather than the slow-moving bureaucracy it is today.
But just like great agriculture properties, such deals and talent are hard to find; this is one of the reasons I hold my entrepreneurship camps each summer, why my team and I travel the world looking at global opportunities, and why we follow programs like Startup Chile so closely.
We’re launching a new service after the holidays for investors who agree with this premise, but need help sourcing and navigating quality deals. More to follow on that in a future letter.
from SOVErEIGN MAN http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/why-i-dont-invest-in-stocks-and-where-i-do-park-my-investment-capital-13278/
via IFTTT
But…we have a deal in DC?! As the safety bid for bonds and bullion continues, stocks are greatly rotating lower, retracing all the post-payrolls (taper is a good thing) gains. Perhaps more notably, attempts to juice stocks with EURJPY are failing (for now)…
Retraced…
EURJPY not working…. But AUDJPY is…
Charts: Bloomberg
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/szz7OL9auCQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden
A modest cut in the slowdown of the growth of debt in the most indebted nation on earth is being heralded as a ‘win’ by many (even if the ‘market’ is entirely ignoring it). We leave it to Speaker Boehner to explain the “compromise” but remind readers that the extension of emergency claims is off the table (for now) and thusly, the unemployment rate is about to drop notably – providing the Fed the cover (along with this fiscal ‘tailwind’) to spin a tale of taper sooner rather than later.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NZzYjCLog_s/story01.htm Tyler Durden
A modest cut in the slowdown of the growth of debt in the most indebted nation on earth is being heralded as a ‘win’ by many (even if the ‘market’ is entirely ignoring it). We leave it to Speaker Boehner to explain the “compromise” but remind readers that the extension of emergency claims is off the table (for now) and thusly, the unemployment rate is about to drop notably – providing the Fed the cover (along with this fiscal ‘tailwind’) to spin a tale of taper sooner rather than later.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/NZzYjCLog_s/story01.htm Tyler Durden
With private sector loan creation in the US and Japan virtually unchanged since Lehman levels (and the US in danger of posting a negative comp in a very months) and Europe loan creation contracting at a record pace, it falls upon the Fed and Bank of Japan (and possibly the ECB soon) to inject the much needed credit-money liquidity into the system. And, as everyone knows, month after month the Fed and the BOJ diligently create $85 billion and $75 billion in new outside money out of thin air (that this “credit” ends up in the stock market is a different topic).
So to help readers get a sense of perspective how the US and Japan compare when matched to China, below we present a chart showing the fixed monthly “money” creation by the Fed and the BOJ compared to the most comprehensive money supply aggregate available in China – the Total Social Financing – for the month of November. The chart speaks for itself.
Basically, while everyone focuses on the breakneck money creation by the Fed and the BOJ, what happened in the past month is that China quietly created some 20% more money. Perhaps most impotantly, between these three entities, nearly $400 billion in liquidity was created de novo in one month! Because when the entire world is a credit-fueled ponzi scheme, these are the kind of numbers that matter.
For those curious, here is a more detailed breakdown of the Chinese numbers from Bank of America.
New bank loans and TSF rebounded notably in November
Despite higher and volatile interbank rates and rising bond yields, credit growth remained quite robust towards year-end. Two most watched data points, new bank loans and Total Social Financing (TSF), rebounded notably to RMB625bn and RMB1230bn respectively in November from RMB506bn and RMB856bn in October. YoY bank loan growth remained unchanged at 14.2%, while yoy outstanding TSF growth moderated to 19.5% from 19.7%. Today’s money & credit data should be positive for markets which have been worried that the PBoC could tighten credit supply to reduce leverage by citing rising bond yields and interbank rates.
Details of TSF: All financing activities accelerated
Loan details: demand for working capital remained decent
* * *
So how long before the developed and developing world “have” to create $1 trillion or more in money supply each month to keep the house of cards from toppling?
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/3lToNGkt1XQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden
If you don’t like the frequency of your air-quality alerts, you don’t have to keep them. That is the message that the Chinese government has made loud and clear as Bloomberg reports, Shanghai’s environmental authority took decisive action to address the pollution – it cynically adjusted the threshold for “alerts” to ensure there won’t be so many. In a move remininscent of Japan’s raising of the “safe” radioactive threshold level, China has apparently decided – rather than accept responsibility for the disaster – to avoid it by making the “safe” pollution level over 50% more polluted (up from 75 to 115 micrograms per cubic meter) – almost 5 times the WHO’s “safe” level of 25 micrograms.
As the smog that has choked Shanghai for much of the last week reached hazardous levels, the city’s environmental authority took decisive action to address the frequent air-quality alerts: It adjusted standards downward to ensure that there won’t be so many.
It was a cynical move, surely made to protect the bureau’s image in the face of unrelenting pollution that only seems to grow worse, despite government promises to address it. At this advanced stage in China’s development, nobody in the country (or elsewhere) — not even the loyal state news media — seems to believe that the problem is solvable, at least not any time soon. Even worse, nobody — not the state and certainly not the growing number of middle-class consumers (and car buyers) — seems ready to take responsibility for the mess.
…
If you can’t fix it, you might as well try to avoid responsibility for it, the thinking seems to go. It therefore comes as no surprise that Shanghai’s Environmental Protection Bureau decided to lower the benchmark for alerting the public about pollution risks. It will now issue alerts only when the concentration of the most dangerous particulates in the city’s air, known as PM2.5 (particulates smaller than 2.5 micometers in diameter) reach 115 micrograms per cubic meter. The previous standard was 75 micrograms per cubic meter. (The World Health Organization recommends not exceeding 25 micrograms per cubic meter in a 24-hour period.)
…
The state-owned English-language China Daily explained the decision in tone that almost obscured the absurdity of the maneuver: “The bureau said it believes the original standard is too strict, given that haze is common in the Yangtze River Delta region in winter.”
…
“On social networks like Weibo and Wechat, Beijingers now show photos of blue skies and white clouds as if they’re on vacation.” This show-off behavior left a bad taste, he concedes, before concluding with a final sentence that ought to serve as a rallying cry in China: “I really hope that someday people will resume reacting to blue skies and white clouds in a ‘normal’ manner.”
That’s a hope that probably won’t be fulfilled in this decade or even the next.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/N_3CCAogWeo/story01.htm Tyler Durden
If you don’t like the frequency of your air-quality alerts, you don’t have to keep them. That is the message that the Chinese government has made loud and clear as Bloomberg reports, Shanghai’s environmental authority took decisive action to address the pollution – it cynically adjusted the threshold for “alerts” to ensure there won’t be so many. In a move remininscent of Japan’s raising of the “safe” radioactive threshold level, China has apparently decided – rather than accept responsibility for the disaster – to avoid it by making the “safe” pollution level over 50% more polluted (up from 75 to 115 micrograms per cubic meter) – almost 5 times the WHO’s “safe” level of 25 micrograms.
As the smog that has choked Shanghai for much of the last week reached hazardous levels, the city’s environmental authority took decisive action to address the frequent air-quality alerts: It adjusted standards downward to ensure that there won’t be so many.
It was a cynical move, surely made to protect the bureau’s image in the face of unrelenting pollution that only seems to grow worse, despite government promises to address it. At this advanced stage in China’s development, nobody in the country (or elsewhere) — not even the loyal state news media — seems to believe that the problem is solvable, at least not any time soon. Even worse, nobody — not the state and certainly not the growing number of middle-class consumers (and car buyers) — seems ready to take responsibility for the mess.
…
If you can’t fix it, you might as well try to avoid responsibility for it, the thinking seems to go. It therefore comes as no surprise that Shanghai’s Environmental Protection Bureau decided to lower the benchmark for alerting the public about pollution risks. It will now issue alerts only when the concentration of the most dangerous particulates in the city’s air, known as PM2.5 (particulates smaller than 2.5 micometers in diameter) reach 115 micrograms per cubic meter. The previous standard was 75 micrograms per cubic meter. (The World Health Organization recommends not exceeding 25 micrograms per cubic meter in a 24-hour period.)
…
The state-owned English-language China Daily explained the decision in tone that almost obscured the absurdity of the maneuver: “The bureau said it believes the original standard is too strict, given that haze is common in the Yangtze River Delta region in winter.”
…
“On social networks like Weibo and Wechat, Beijingers now show photos of blue skies and white clouds as if they’re on vacation.” This show-off behavior left a bad taste, he concedes, before concluding with a final sentence that ought to serve as a rallying cry in China: “I really hope that someday people will resume reacting to blue skies and white clouds in a ‘normal’ manner.”
That’s a hope that probably won’t be fulfilled in this decade or even the next.
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via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/N_3CCAogWeo/story01.htm Tyler Durden
