CFTC Cancels Volcker Rule Meeting Due To "Inclement Weather"

At least the dog didn’t eat the London Whale’s trade blotter, or Bart Chilton’s hair wasn’t caught in a snowblower. Perhaps, Mr. Chilton will blame the meeting cancelation on the day the regulators are expected to vote on banning of bank prop trading and pass a rule that was “tougher than the banks expected“, on the CFTC’s low budget which does not permit it to buy antifreeze?

Source: CFTC


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/U7hz9k3vf0A/story01.htm Tyler Durden

CFTC Cancels Volcker Rule Meeting Due To “Inclement Weather”

At least the dog didn’t eat the London Whale’s trade blotter, or Bart Chilton’s hair wasn’t caught in a snowblower. Perhaps, Mr. Chilton will blame the meeting cancelation on the day the regulators are expected to vote on banning of bank prop trading and pass a rule that was “tougher than the banks expected“, on the CFTC’s low budget which does not permit it to buy antifreeze?

Source: CFTC


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/U7hz9k3vf0A/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The 10 Worst Economic Predictions Ever

From Bernanke's infamous 2008 "not forecasting a recession" call to Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines 2004 "subprime assets are riskless" commentary, the following 10 "predictions" – as opposed to Wien "surprises" – will go down in infamy for their degree of errant-ness…

 

10) Ben Bernanke, 10th January 2008 – "The Federal Reserve is currently not forecasting a recession."

A few months later, United States entered one of the wort recessions ever.

9) Herbert Hoover 1928: "The United States are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land."

The Great Depression started a year after. Stocks lost almost 80% under his presidency.

8) James Glassman & Kevin Hassett (writers of the book : DOW 36000), 1999: "Stocks are now in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground–to the neighborhood of 36,000 on the Dow Jones industrial average."

According to their estimates, the Dow Jones was supposed to reach 36,000 points. The following years were marked by the Internet bubble, the Dow went down from 10,000 (book edition) to 7,200.

7) Georges W. Bush, 15th July 2008: "We can have confidence in the long-term foundation of our economy… I think the system basically is sound. I truly do."

This sentence was pronounced exactly two months before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

6) Donald Luskin (US investment guru), 14th September 2008: "Anyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of 'recession'."

According to Luskin, Obama deliberately worsened economic figures to discredit McCain for the presidential election that took place two months later. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy the next day.

5) Irving Fisher (economist), 15th October 1929: "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."

The crash of 1929 began the following week, the Dow Jones losing up to 85% of its value from the "permanent plateau"!

4) David Lereah (US economist), 12th August 2005: "I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year."

Real Estate prices fell sharper between 2006 and 2008 than during the Great Depression.

3) Joseph Cassano (Head of Financial Products at AIG), 2007: "It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these Credit Default Swap transactions."

The following year, AIG was rescued by the government after huge losses. Especially on CDS positions…

2) Franklin Raines (CEO of Fannie Mae), 10th June 2004: "These supbrime assets are so riskless that their capital for holding them should be under 2 percent."

The U.S. government intervened in 2008 to rescue Fannie Mae – in big trouble during the subprime crisis.

1) David Woo (Analyst, Bank of America), 5th December 2013 about bitcoin: "Our fair value analysis implies a price of $1300"

The future will tell whether it is reasonable to assign a "fair value" to this virtual currency. Meanwhile, the bitcoin still lost 46% of its value Friday…

Source: Victor Baetens via Investor.ch

 

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/lH280wCc7NY/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Abe Approval Rating Plunges (But Japan Is Not Venezuela, Yet)

Japan's PM Shinzo Abe has seen his approval ratings collapse for the first time since his 'devalue-to-glory' strategy was unveiled a year ago. Kyodo News reported, support for Mr. Abe fell 10.3ppt to 47.6%, while Japan News Network reported a 13.9-point fall to 54.6% as WSJ reports, public concern over the controversial secrecy bill (designed by Kafka, inspired by Hitler) and its nationalist overtones merely exacerbated Japanese people's concerns about their pocketbooks (as incomes stagnate and costs rise). As Abe plays lip service to economic issues (with a very Maduro-like speech recently on profit margins and wage increases), there is little but public outrage to hinder his plans as his ruling Liberal Democratic Party has big majorities in both houses of parliament, with no election scheduled until 2016. So much for Abenomics…

 

The secrecy bill has finally raised the Japanese peoples' ire it would seem

*JAPAN UPPER HOUSE PANEL ADOPTS SECRECY BILL AMID UPROAR

*ABE: SECRETS BILL NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY

 

The right to know has now been officially superseded by the right of the government to make sure you don’t know what they don’t want you to know. It might all seems like a bad joke, except for the Orwellian nature of the bill and a key Cabinet member expressing his admiration for the Nazis, "just as Germany needed a strong man like Hitler to revive defeated Germany, Japan needs people like Abe to dynamically induce change."

Via WSJ,

All three media surveys signaled public concern after the ruling coalition steamrolled the passage of a controversial bill to set stricter penalties for intelligence breaches amid objections from opposition parties.

 

Around 80% of those questioned in all three polls felt that the bill wasn't thoroughly debated in parliament.

 

In a news conference Monday, Mr. Abe said it was necessary to push through the secrecy bill quickly to protect public safety, but acknowledged the criticism.

 

"We must sincerely and humbly accept the people's harsh criticism," Mr. Abe said, adding that "I myself should have taken more time to carefully explain" the bill.

 

 

Mr. Abe's high poll numbers early in his rule created a virtuous circle that allowed him to push through policies that were seen as aiding the economy and lifting the stock market, which in turn further sustained his popularity, allowing him to win a key election, and extend his power.

 

His sustained high support rate over the past year has been unusual among recent Japanese prime ministers. Starting with Mr. Abe's own first one-year term, which ended abruptly in September 2007 after his party lost an election and his popularity plunged, Japan ran through six unpopular prime ministers in six years.

 

 

One big change for Mr. Abe between his first term and his second has been his focus in his most recent stint on pulling Japan's economy out of its long slump. Long seen as a conservative nationalist, devoted to building up Japan's military and global clout, he devoted much of his first term to those causes.

 

 

“The Cabinet must understand the risks involved in moving ahead with Mr. Abe’s agenda,” Mr. Nakano said. “It faces a tough decision, whether to push ahead with Mr. Abe’s conservative goals, or to focus on Abenomics in a bid to revive popularity.”

So, it's for your own good Japan…

It seems Abe is going to need to raise that stock market even more to keep his popularity…

Meanwhile, the nationalist talk continues…

  • *ABE:NO PROSPECT OF SUMMITS WITH CHINA, SOUTH KOREA NOW

And yet last night's speeches sounded awfully like an awakening of the Maduro-style -ism of Venezuela's control system "economy"

  • *ABE: REAL BATTLE FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY STARTS NOW
  • *ABE CALLS FOR COMPANIES TO BOOST WAGES MORE THAN PRICE GAINS
  • *ABE SAYS TOYOTA, HITACHI EXECUTIVES PLEDGED TO RAISE WAGES

Raise wages, cut margins, or else… we can only hope this stress does not bring on another bout of chronic diarrhea (as none of these Japanese leaders are getting any younger).

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/0E3xhaeMbbs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

David Stockman Rages Market "Valuation Has Lost Any Anchor To The Real World"

The current malaise of news, data, and spin is “meaningless,” David Stockman tells Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, adding that markets are exhibiting “the kind of speculative froth you get at the top of a cycle where valuation loses any anchor in the real world; from earnings or the prospects of the economy.” As he argued before, “owning stocks here is very dangerous,” and despite Keene’s best efforts to denigrate Stockman’s “of course it’s a bubble,” perspective; the former inside-man exposes the hard mathematical truths of valuations, performance, and reality in this brief clip. Who is to blame – The Fed or Wall Street? “It is a question of who has taken whom hostage,” Stockman concludes ominously, “it’s a co-dependency… it’s very dangerous.”

“Wall street demands that the Fed keeps dishing out the liquidity, keeps dishing out the monetary heroin…

 

They have a hissy fit if the chairman of the Fed even suggested they might begin to taper four years into a recovery.

 

So – it’s a codependency.

 

It’s a very dangerous thing. “

Interview below:

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/FMAqeuK1AG4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

David Stockman Rages Market “Valuation Has Lost Any Anchor To The Real World”

The current malaise of news, data, and spin is “meaningless,” David Stockman tells Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, adding that markets are exhibiting “the kind of speculative froth you get at the top of a cycle where valuation loses any anchor in the real world; from earnings or the prospects of the economy.” As he argued before, “owning stocks here is very dangerous,” and despite Keene’s best efforts to denigrate Stockman’s “of course it’s a bubble,” perspective; the former inside-man exposes the hard mathematical truths of valuations, performance, and reality in this brief clip. Who is to blame – The Fed or Wall Street? “It is a question of who has taken whom hostage,” Stockman concludes ominously, “it’s a co-dependency… it’s very dangerous.”

“Wall street demands that the Fed keeps dishing out the liquidity, keeps dishing out the monetary heroin…

 

They have a hissy fit if the chairman of the Fed even suggested they might begin to taper four years into a recovery.

 

So – it’s a codependency.

 

It’s a very dangerous thing. “

Interview below:

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/FMAqeuK1AG4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

37 Reasons Why "The Economic Recovery Of 2013" Is A Giant Lie

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

"If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it."  Sadly, that appears to be the approach that the Obama administration and the mainstream media are taking with the U.S. economy.  They seem to believe that if they just keep telling the American people over and over that things are getting better, eventually the American people will believe that it is actually true. 

On Friday, it was announced that the unemployment rate had fallen to "7 percent", and the mainstream media responded with a mix of euphoria and jubilation.  For example, one USA Today article declared that "with today's jobs report, one really can say that our long national post-financial crisis nightmare is over."  But is that actually the truth?  As you will see below, if you assume that the labor force participation rate in the U.S. is at the long-term average, the unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent. 

There has been absolutely no employment recovery.  The percentage of Americans that are actually working has stayed between 58 and 59 percent for 51 months in a row.  But most Americans don't understand these things and they just take whatever the mainstream media tells them as the truth.

And of course the reality of the matter is that we should have seen some sort of an economic recovery by now.  Those running our system have literally been mortgaging the future in a desperate attempt to try to pump up our economic numbers.  The federal government has been on the greatest debt binge in U.S. history and the Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazed lunatics.  All of that "stimulus" should have had some positive short-term effects on the economy.

Sadly, all of those "emergency measures" do not appear to have done much at all.  The percentage of Americans that have a job has stayed remarkably flat since the end of 2009, median household income has fallen for five years in a row, and the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.  Anyone that claims that the U.S. economy is experiencing a "recovery" is simply not telling the truth.  The following are 37 reasons why "the economic recovery of 2013" is a giant lie…

#1 The only reason that the official unemployment rate has been declining over the past couple of years is that the federal government has been pretending that millions upon millions of unemployed Americans no longer want a job and have "left the labor force".  As Zero Hedge recently demonstrated, if the labor force participation rate returned to the long-term average of 65.8 percent, the official unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent.

#2 The percentage of Americans that are actually working is much lower than it used to be.  In November 2000, 64.3 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  When Barack Obama first entered the White House, 60.6 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  Today, only 58.6 percent of all working age Americans have a job.  In fact, as you can see from the chart posted below, there has been absolutely no "employment recovery" since the depths of the last recession…

Employment-Population Ratio 2013

#3 The employment-population ratio has now been under 59 percent for 51 months in a row.

#4 There are 1,148,000 fewer Americans working today than there was in November 2006.  Meanwhile, our population has grown by more than 16 million people during that time frame.

#5 The "inactivity rate" for men in their prime working years (25 to 54) has just hit a brand new all-time record high.  Does this look like an "economic recovery" to you?…

Inactivity Rate Men

#6 The number of working age Americans without a job has increased by a total of 27 million since the year 2000.

#7 In November 2007, there were 121.9 million full-time workers in the United States.  Today, there are only 116.9 million full-time workers in the United States.

#8 Middle-wage jobs accounted for 60 percent of the jobs lost during the last recession, but they have accounted for only 22 percent of the jobs created since then.

#9 Only about 47 percent of all adults in America have a full-time job at this point.

#10 The ratio of wages to corporate profits in the United States just hit a brand new all-time low.

#11 It is
hard to believe, but in America today one out of every ten jobs is now filled by a temp agency.

#12 Approximately one out of every four part-time workers in America is living below the poverty line.

#13 In this economic environment, there is intense competition even for the lowest paying jobs.  Wal-Mart recently opened up two new stores in Washington D.C., and more than 23,000 people applied for just 600 positions.  That means that only about 2.6 percent of the applicants were ultimately hired.  In comparison, Harvard offers admission to 6.1 percent of their applicants.

#14 According to the Social Security Administration, 40 percent of all U.S. workers make less than $20,000 a year.

#15 When Barack Obama took office, the average duration of unemployment in this country was 19.8 weeks.  Today, it is 37.2 weeks.

#16 According to the New York Times, long-term unemployment in America is up by 213 percent since 2007.

#17 Thanks to Obama administration policies which are systematically killing off small businesses in the United States, the percentage of self-employed Americans is at an all-time low today.

#18 According to economist Tim Kane, the following is how the number of startup jobs per 1000 Americans breaks down by presidential administration

Bush Sr.: 11.3

Clinton: 11.2

Bush Jr.: 10.8

Obama: 7.8

#19 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row.

#20 The rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.

#21 Back in 1999, 64.1 percent of all Americans were covered by employment-based health insurance.  Today, only 54.9 percent of all Americans are covered by employment-based health insurance, and thanks to Obamacare millions more Americans are now losing their health insurance plans.

#22 As 2003 began, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was about $1.30.  When Barack Obama took office, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $1.85.  Today, it is $3.26.

#23 Total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#24 In 2008, the total amount of student loan debt in this country was sitting at about 440 billion dollars.  Today, it has shot up to approximately a trillion dollars.

#25 Under Barack Obama, the velocity of money (a very important indicator of economic health) has plunged to a post-World War II low.

#26 Back in the year 2000, our trade deficit with China was 83 billion dollars.  In 2008, our trade deficit with China was 268 billion dollars.  Last year, it was 315 billion dollars.  That was the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in world history.

#27 The gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is at an all-time record high.

#28 Right now, 1.2 million students that attend public schools in the United States are homeless.  That is a brand new all-time record high, and that number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession.

#29 When Barack Obama first entered the White House, there were about 32 million Americans on food stamps.  Today, there are more than 47 million Americans on food stamps.

#30 Right now, approximately one out of every five households in the United States is on food stamps.

#31 According to the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Census, well over 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government.

#32 In 2000, the U.S. government spent 199 billion dollars on Medicaid.  In 2008, the U.S. government spe
nt 338 billion dollars on Medicaid.  In 2012, the U.S. government spent 417 billion dollars on Medicaid, and now Obamacare is going to add tens of millions more Americans to the Medicaid rolls.

#33 In 2000, the U.S. government spent 219 billion dollars on Medicare.  In 2008, the U.S. government spent 462 billion dollars on Medicare.  In 2012, the U.S. government spent 560 billion dollars on Medicare, and that number is expected to absolutely skyrocket in the years ahead as the Baby Boomers retire.

#34 According to the most recent numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, an all-time record high 49.2 percent of all Americans are receiving benefits from at least one government program.

#35 The U.S. government has spent an astounding 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs over the past five years.

#36 When Barack Obama was first elected, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio was under 70 percent.  Today, it is up to 101 percent.

#37 The U.S. national debt is on pace to more than double during the eight years of the Obama administration.  In other words, under Barack Obama the U.S. government will accumulate more debt than it did under all of the other presidents in U.S. history combined.

Fortunately, it appears that most Americans are not buying into the propaganda.  According to a new CNN survey, the percentage of Americans that believe that the economy is getting worse far exceeds the percentage of Americans that believe that the economy is improving…

Americans views on the state of the nation are turning increasingly sour, according to a new national poll.

And a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday also indicates that less than a quarter of the public says that economic conditions are improving, while nearly four in ten say the nation's economy is getting worse.

Forty-one percent of those questioned in the poll say things are going well in the country today, down nine percentage points from April, and the lowest that number has been in CNN polling since February 2012. Fifty-nine percent say things are going badly, up nine points from April.

So what do you think?

Do you believe that the U.S. economy is getting better or getting worse?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/D6WfOwxw4Yc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

37 Reasons Why “The Economic Recovery Of 2013” Is A Giant Lie

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

"If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it."  Sadly, that appears to be the approach that the Obama administration and the mainstream media are taking with the U.S. economy.  They seem to believe that if they just keep telling the American people over and over that things are getting better, eventually the American people will believe that it is actually true. 

On Friday, it was announced that the unemployment rate had fallen to "7 percent", and the mainstream media responded with a mix of euphoria and jubilation.  For example, one USA Today article declared that "with today's jobs report, one really can say that our long national post-financial crisis nightmare is over."  But is that actually the truth?  As you will see below, if you assume that the labor force participation rate in the U.S. is at the long-term average, the unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent. 

There has been absolutely no employment recovery.  The percentage of Americans that are actually working has stayed between 58 and 59 percent for 51 months in a row.  But most Americans don't understand these things and they just take whatever the mainstream media tells them as the truth.

And of course the reality of the matter is that we should have seen some sort of an economic recovery by now.  Those running our system have literally been mortgaging the future in a desperate attempt to try to pump up our economic numbers.  The federal government has been on the greatest debt binge in U.S. history and the Federal Reserve has been printing money like crazed lunatics.  All of that "stimulus" should have had some positive short-term effects on the economy.

Sadly, all of those "emergency measures" do not appear to have done much at all.  The percentage of Americans that have a job has stayed remarkably flat since the end of 2009, median household income has fallen for five years in a row, and the rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.  Anyone that claims that the U.S. economy is experiencing a "recovery" is simply not telling the truth.  The following are 37 reasons why "the economic recovery of 2013" is a giant lie…

#1 The only reason that the official unemployment rate has been declining over the past couple of years is that the federal government has been pretending that millions upon millions of unemployed Americans no longer want a job and have "left the labor force".  As Zero Hedge recently demonstrated, if the labor force participation rate returned to the long-term average of 65.8 percent, the official unemployment rate in the United States would actually be 11.5 percent instead of 7 percent.

#2 The percentage of Americans that are actually working is much lower than it used to be.  In November 2000, 64.3 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  When Barack Obama first entered the White House, 60.6 percent of all working age Americans had a job.  Today, only 58.6 percent of all working age Americans have a job.  In fact, as you can see from the chart posted below, there has been absolutely no "employment recovery" since the depths of the last recession…

Employment-Population Ratio 2013

#3 The employment-population ratio has now been under 59 percent for 51 months in a row.

#4 There are 1,148,000 fewer Americans working today than there was in November 2006.  Meanwhile, our population has grown by more than 16 million people during that time frame.

#5 The "inactivity rate" for men in their prime working years (25 to 54) has just hit a brand new all-time record high.  Does this look like an "economic recovery" to you?…

Inactivity Rate Men

#6 The number of working age Americans without a job has increased by a total of 27 million since the year 2000.

#7 In November 2007, there were 121.9 million full-time workers in the United States.  Today, there are only 116.9 million full-time workers in the United States.

#8 Middle-wage jobs accounted for 60 percent of the jobs lost during the last recession, but they have accounted for only 22 percent of the jobs created since then.

#9 Only about 47 percent of all adults in America have a full-time job at this point.

#10 The ratio of wages to corporate profits in the United States just hit a brand new all-time low.

#11 It is hard to believe, but in America today one out of every ten jobs is now filled by a temp agency.

#12 Approximately one out of every four part-time workers in America is living below the poverty line.

#13 In this economic environment, there is intense competition even for the lowest paying jobs.  Wal-Mart recently opened up two new stores in Washington D.C., and more than 23,000 people applied for just 600 positions.  That means that only about 2.6 percent of the applicants were ultimately hired.  In comparison, Harvard offers admission to 6.1 percent of their applicants.

#14 According to the Social Security Administration, 40 percent of all U.S. workers make less than $20,000 a year.

#15 When Barack Obama took office, the average duration of unemployment in this country was 19.8 weeks.  Today, it is 37.2 weeks.

#16 According to the New York Times, long-term unemployment in America is up by 213 percent since 2007.

#17 Thanks to Obama administration policies which are systematically killing off small businesses in the United States, the percentage of self-employed Americans is at an all-time low today.

#18 According to economist Tim Kane, the following is how the number of startup jobs per 1000 Americans breaks down by presidential administration

Bush Sr.: 11.3

Clinton: 11.2

Bush Jr.: 10.8

Obama: 7.8

#19 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row.

#20 The rate of homeownership in the United States has fallen for eight years in a row.

#21 Back in 1999, 64.1 percent of all Americans were covered by employment-based health insurance.  Today, only 54.9 percent of all Americans are covered by employment-based health insurance, and thanks to Obamacare millions more Americans are now losing their health insurance plans.

#22 As 2003 began, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was about $1.30.  When Barack Obama took office, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $1.85.  Today, it is $3.26.

#23 Total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#24 In 2008, the total amount of student loan debt in this country was sitting at about 440 billion dollars.  Today, it has shot up to approximately a trillion dollars.

#25 Under Barack Obama, the velocity of money (a very important indicator of economic health) has plunged to a post-World War II low.

#26 Back in the year 2000, our trade deficit with China was 83 billion dollars.  In 2008, our trade deficit with China was 268 billion dollars.  Last year, it was 315 billion dollars.  That was the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in world history.

#27 The gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is at an all-time record high.

#28 Right now, 1.2 million students that attend public schools in the United States are homeless.  That is a brand new all-time record high, and that number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession.

#29 When Barack Obama first entered the White House, there were about 32 million Americans on food stamps.  Today, there are more than 47 million Americans on food stamps.

#30 Right now, approximately one out of every five households in the United States is on food stamps.

#31 According to the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Census, well over 100 million Americans are enrolled in at least one welfare program run by the federal government.

#32 In 2000, the U.S. government spent 199 billion dollars on Medicaid.  In 2008, the U.S. government spent 338 billion dollars on Medicaid.  In 2012, the U.S. government spent 417 billion dollars on Medicaid, and now Obamacare is going to add tens of millions more Americans to the Medicaid rolls.

#33 In 2000, the U.S. government spent 219 billion dollars on Medicare.  In 2008, the U.S. government spent 462 billion dollars on Medicare.  In 2012, the U.S. government spent 560 billion dollars on Medicare, and that number is expected to absolutely skyrocket in the years ahead as the Baby Boomers retire.

#34 According to the most recent numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, an all-time record high 49.2 percent of all Americans are receiving benefits from at least one government program.

#35 The U.S. government has spent an astounding 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs over the past five years.

#36 When Barack Obama was first elected, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio was under 70 percent.  Today, it is up to 101 percent.

#37 The U.S. national debt is on pace to more than double during the eight years of the Obama administration.  In other words, under Barack Obama the U.S. government will accumulate more debt than it did under all of the other presidents in U.S. history combined.

Fortunately, it appears that most Americans are not buying into the propaganda.  According to a new CNN survey, the percentage of Americans that believe that the economy is getting worse far exceeds the percentage of Americans that believe that the economy is improving…

Americans views on the state of the nation are turning increasingly sour, according to a new national poll.

And a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday also indicates that less than a quarter of the public says that economic conditions are improving, while nearly four in ten say the nation's economy is getting worse.

Forty-one percent of those questioned in the poll say things are going well in the country today, down nine percentage points from April, and the lowest that number has been in CNN polling since February 2012. Fifty-nine percent say things are going badly, up nine points from April.

So what do you think?

Do you believe that the U.S. economy is getting better or getting worse?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/D6WfOwxw4Yc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Of Keynesian Cul-De-Sacs And The Fed Creating More Financial Market Uncertainty

Submitted by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,

Although the U.S. stock market continues to hit new nominal highs on a nearly daily basis, the U.S. economy bumps along at a lackluster pace. This disconnect has been achieved by a massive Fed experiment in monetary stimulation. Through the combination of seemingly endless maintenance of zero interest rates and the injection of some $1trillion a year of synthetic money into fixed-income markets, the Fed is hoping that the boom it is creating on Wall Street will lead to a boom on Main Street. In reality, this a very dangerous economic gamble of enormously high stakes.  As we have seen in the recent past, financial bubbles can leave catastrophe in their wake.

In October 2013, Professor Robert Schiller, the renowned Yale economist, was awarded a Nobel Prize together with two others for research into asset bubbles and resulting values. In a recent interview in the German newspaper, Der Spiegel, he said, “I am not yet sounding the alarm. But in many countries stock exchanges are at a high level and prices have risen sharply in some property markets. That could end badly. I am most worried about the boom in the U.S. stock market. Also because our economy is still weak and vulnerable.”

However, there are many in the financial establishment who disagree with the professor, including, most interestingly, Professor Karl Case, the co-creator of the famous Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Most market participants either believe that current share prices are fully justified by corporate metrics or they believe the Fed has expertise, and the ability, to prevent an ugly sell-off if things turn out badly. This debate has become the defining conversation as we head into the end of the year.

However, those who believe that QE will produce positive results to compensate for the risks are finding their position to be increasingly difficult to defend. At the International Monetary Fund’s November annual conference in Washington, Mr. David Wilcox, reputed to be one of the Fed’s most important economic advisors, offered insight into some problems facing QE. In essence, he maintained that the Fed’s QE-3 program is producing only very limited results in terms of U.S. economic growth. At the same time, he seemed to hint that unlimited QE could create serious financial market distortions.

Many market observers, including myself, think that the Fed’s open-ended QE program has been a massively expensive failure. As a result, market watchers have become increasingly eager for the program to be wound down, and many do not understand the Fed’s reluctance to taper its monthly bond purchases.

Although many of the more open-minded members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee may have lost faith in the ability of QE to deliver tangible gains in the real economy, they have also shown some concern that a diminishing of QE could trigger stock and bond market turmoil. There can be little doubt that such an outcome could usher in a new round of recession. In other words the “good” that the Fed sees in QE may merely be the prevention of a potentially worse reality.

A majority of investors have seemed to convince themselves that QE has become an unneeded crutch that the Fed will be more than happy to abandon by the end of next year. Many believe that such an outcome will place limited downward pressure on stocks, bonds and real estate. These views are Pollyannish in the extreme. The recent sell-off in the bond market should attest to that. On the other hand, some investors, including some aggressive hedge funds, seem to be operating under the belief that QE will not be ended any time soon, if ever. They have even borrowed massively to invest on booming financial markets that stand already at record highs. Today, total New York Stock Exchange margin debt stands at $412 billion, an all-time record.

The disagreements of the investing public are of little weight in comparison to the opinions of the FOMC members themselves (such is the world we have created). The key point for 2014 is how many voting members of the new Yellen-led FOMC will follow her down the Keynesian cul-de-sac. Should a majority of the FOMC feel forced, in the national interest, to vote against an expansion of the Bernanke-era stimulus policies (which we believe Ms. Yellen is sure to propose), financial markets could be in for a severe shock.

Those who wish to continue equity investing in face of this risk might be well-advised to ensure they have adequate hedging policies in place. Investors in both equities and bonds must question how the Fed can coax a market into a continued boom in a manner disconnected from economic reality.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/yPYWUa9554c/story01.htm Tyler Durden