Tag: finance

While today’s big event is the October Non-farm payrolls print, which with consensus having at 120K and unemployment rising from 7.2% to 7.3%, will be more of a drizzle than a typhoon, there was a spate of events overnight worth noting, starting with Chinese exports and imports both rising more than expected (5.6% and 7.6% vs expectations of 1.9% and 7.4% respectively), leading to an October trade surplus of $31.1 billion double the $15.2 billion reported in August. This led to a brief jump in Asian regional market which however was promptly faded. Germany also reported a greater trade surplus than expected at €20.4bn vs €15.4 bn expected, which begs the question just where are all these excess exports going to? Perhaps France, whose trade deficit rose from €5.1 billion to €5.8 billion, more than the €4.8 billion expected. Of note also was the French downgrade from AA+ to AA by S&P, citing weak economic prospects, with fiscal constraints throughout 2014. The agency added that the country has limited room to maneuver and sees an inability to significantly cut government spending. The downgrade, however, was largely a buy the EURUSD dip event as rating agencies’ opinions fade into irrelevance.

Looking at today’s payrolls data, the expectation is for a rather modest headline gain of 120k in today’s report and for the unemployment rate to tick up 0.1ppt to 7.3%. As DB observes, the most recent estimates from economic forecasters have virtually all come below the 130k level with a number of estimates under 100k – so it’s fair to say that expectations for the shutdown-affected month of October are biased to the low end. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how markets react to today’s report, and whether any weakness in October will be interpreted as being transitory. For the record DB is expecting a +130k headline print today, +130k for private payrolls and an unemployment rate of 7.3%. As such, risk for risk is to the downside, as even a modestly stronger than expected number will result in bringing tapering expectations closer if only for the day.

As usual, any hints and rumors of what the Fed may or may not do, especially in the aftermath of the ECB’s surprising rate cut, will be driving force for any market moves.

Finally, southeast Asia is literally being rocked right now by Super Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms ever. The Keynesian inside all of us will immediately proclaim: bullish for GDP.

In addition to payrolls, we also get the monthly personal income and spending reports as well as the UofMichigan confidence survey which is expected to show that sentiment has picked up in November after reaching a year-to-date low in October. Bernanke will be making some remarks at the IMF Annual Research Conference late in the US trading session.

US Data Docket

• US: Change in nonfarm payrolls, cons 120k (14:30), Unemployment rate, cons, 7.3% (14:30)
• Univ. Of Michigan confidence, cons 74.5 (15:55)
• US: Fed speakers – Lockhart (18:00) Bernanke, Fischer and Summers (21:30), Williams (22:00)

Market Re-Cap from RanSquawk

Stocks traded lower in Europe, with the French CAC index under performing its peers after S&P cut French sovereign debt rating. The cautious sentiment supported the more defensive equity sectors, with health care among the best performing for much of the session this morning. Utilities also benefited from an encouraging earnings report by ENEL, with shares advancing around 2%. Despite the risk averse sentiment, combination of profit taking related flows following yesterday’s surge post ECB rate decision, together with the fact that the latest sovereign downgrade adds more pressure on Germany meant that Bunds also traded lower, albeit marginally. Going forward, apart from awaiting the release of the latest jobs report by the BLS, attention will also be on the jobs report from Canada, as well as Prelim. U. Michigan report.

Overnight Bulleting from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

• France cut to AA from AA+ at Standard & Poor’s; Outlook revised to stable from negative.
• According to ECB sources, ECB’s Draghi is said to have pushed for ECB rate cut at decision yesterday.
• Treasuries steady before report forecast to show U.S. economy added 120k jobs in October with the unemployment rate rising to 7.3% from 7.2%.
• Draghi pushed for yesterday’s rate cut over opposition from Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and at least two other Governing Council members, according to four euro-area central bank officials
• Pimco is wagering at least $10b in the credit-default swaps market that U.S. corporate bonds will gain as the Fed extends stimulus into 2014, according to traders and investors
• U.K. house prices rose to a record last month as easing credit availability drove buyers back to the market in all regions of England and Wales for the first time in almost three years, Acadametrics said
• Germany’s trade surplus widened to EU20.4b in September, more than forecast; exports gained 1.7%, also more than estimated, while imports fell 1.9%
• The Reserve Bank of Australia forecast below-trend growth and rising unemployment in 2014 as resource investment drops and renewed currency strength drags on the economy, leaving open the chance of lower interest rates
• China’s exports rose 5.6% in October, more than 1.7% median forecast; trade surplus widened to $31.1b, most this year; Communist Party plenum starts tomorrow
• Obama said he’s sorry that thousands of Americans are losing their medical insurance as a result of his health-care law, as his administration works to contain the political damage from the troubled rollout of his signature domestic achievement
• Sovereign yields mostly higher, EU peripheral spreads widen. Nikkei -1.0%, leading Asian stocks lower; Shanghai falls 1.1%. European stocks decline, U.S. equity-index futures gain. WTI crude lower; copper and gold little changed

Asian Headlines

Chinese Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) M/M 31.10bln vs. Exp. 24.80bln (Prev. 15.21bln) – 10-month high.
– Exports (Oct) Y/Y 5.6% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. -0.3%)
– Imports (Oct) Y/Y 7.6% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.4%)
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said China’s economy has to expand 7.2% per year in order to create 10mln jobs annually.

EU & UK Headlines

France cut to AA from AA+ at Standard & Poor’s; Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The ratings agency cited weak economic prospects, with fiscal constraints throughout 2014. The agency added that the country has limited room to maneuver and sees an inability to significantly cut government spending.

According to ECB sources, ECB’s Draghi is said to have pushed for ECB rate cut at decision yesterday. Sources said ECB’s Weidmann and at least two  others said to want to wait for new data adding that Draghi said should not expect too much from monetary policy.

German Trade Balance (Sep) M/M 20.4bln vs. Exp. 15.4bln (Prev. 13.1bln, Rev. 13.3bln)

German Current Account Balance (Sep) M/M 19.7bln vs Exp. 15.0bln (Prev. 9.4bln, Rev. 10.1bln)

French Budget Balance (Sep) YTD -80.8bln vs. Prev. -93.6bln

French Manufacturing Production (Sep) M/M -0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.9%)

French Industrial Production (Sep) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.7%)

UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mln (Sep) M/M -9816 vs. Exp. -9200 (Prev. -9625, Rev. -9957) – Widest since October 2012

US Headlines

The Hill writes that October’s jobs report could be dismal, with the effects of the 16-day government shutdown clearly weighing on the figures. Last month’s numbers, delayed a week by the fiscal impasse, could run about 110,000, which would be the weakest since July.

Stocks traded lower in Europe this morning as market participants not only reacted to the downgrade of French sovereign debt rating by S&P but also positioned for the upcoming release of the jobs report by the BLS. The cautious sentiment supported the more defensive equity sectors, with health care among the best performing for much of the session this morning.

S&P says no change on systemically important French banks. Of note, S&P cut France to AA from AA+, outlook revised to stable from negative. Separately, S&P’s Director Gill says Euro-bank capital shortfall at over 1%.

FX

After a knee jerk move lower by EUR/USD following the downgrade, EUR/USD gradually recovered and edged into positive territory, largely driven by EUR/JPY related flows which staged a decent bounce following yesterday’s heavy selling. As a result, EUR/GBP traded higher, even though shorter-dated implied vols traded flat. Looking elsewhere, RBA cut its 2014 GDP forecast 2%-3% and also cut 2015 GDP forecast to 2.25%-3.25% citing lower mining investment, fiscal restraint and high AUD.

SNB President Jordan said that interest rates will remain low in Switzerland and that there is need to wait to assess impact of ECB rate cut, also noting that low rates may lead to Swiss property bubble risk.

Commodities

Saudi Arabia cuts oil production in October to 9.75mbpd vs. 10.1mbpd in September.

Iran deputy foreign minister Araqchi said it is too soon to say if on verge of P5+1 nuclear deal, but added he is a bit optimistic. In related news, US Secretary of State Kerry is said to be ready to go to Geneva on Friday if an Iranian nuclear deal reached. Also, Russia said that there are positive changes in the positions of world powers and Iran at Geneva talks, hopes for ‘concrete result’ China’s net crude imports slide to 14-month low on fuel margins, falling 21% against the September high to 20.3mmt, roughly 4.8mln bpd – the slowest rate since August 2012.

China’s copper arrivals fell 11.2% in October, coming off an 18-month high in the previous month due to poor price differentials between domestic and international copper markets and as a week-long holiday cut shipments. China October iron ore imports at 67.83mln tons, which is a 9.1% decline from September but up 20.2% on year, according to customs.

The complete overnight recap from Jim Reid of DB

Fascinating day in markets yesterday as 1999 met June 2013 after what was a surprise aperitif from the ECB. The IPO market had the feel of 1999 while the June 2013 reference points to the fact that stronger US data had US equities (S&P 500 -1.3%) facing their worst day since August 27th on renewed fears that tapering may be back on the agenda before March. Though US Q3 GDP brought back tapering fears to equities, treasury markets actually had their firmest day in 3 weeks (10yr yield -4bp) perhaps helped by the surprise move from Draghi. The price action across LATAM reflected that of the DM world as EM equities had another weak day while EM fixed income managed to outperform. Indeed, the MSCI EM equity index recorded its sixth straight loss yesterday in its longest losing streak since August, while a number of sovereign and CDS markets managed to close tighter on the day (though tracking the wides at the close) helped by the firmness in the UST markets. The Brazilian real (-0.7%) and IBOVESPA (-1.2%) were among the underperformers in EM yesterday.

Q3 US real GDP was 2.8% against 2% expectations and with the price index at 1.9% (1.4% consensus), nominal GDP grew at a surprising annualised 4.8% in the quarter. There was mixed views on the real GDP beat though. Many suggested the large inventory accumulation (worth around 0.8%) could mean payback this quarter while on the other side DB’s Joe LaVorgna thinks that it’s an appropriate increase given his expectation of an increase in demand. Whatever your thoughts on this, it does complicate matters for the Fed and markets before year-end. Our base case remains slow global nominal growth and a very, very slow taper but perhaps you need sell-offs to cement why it’s going to be tough to taper aggressively. Markets are still very dependent on liquidity in our opinion and days like yesterday perhaps support this. Today’s payrolls (more later) is the next big event that could re-shape or add to this crucial debate.

Back to the US GDP report, the contradiction was the 0.5% increase over expectations in the price index which goes against what we’ve seen elsewhere in the world of late. Indeed the ECB cut yesterday due to the lower inflation risks. Draghi was careful to say he saw no deflation risks but then again he couldn’t really say anything else in his position. Given that very few saw inflation going this low in Europe in 2013 it’s impossible to rule out further flirtation with deflation in 2014. A 25bp rate cut is unlikely to make too much difference unless the currency continues to fall aggressively so Draghi  must be hoping global activity pulls European inflation up in 2014 or he’ll have some very awkward unconventional policy discussions coming up. He wasn’t that convincing yesterday when asked about what policies he had left if indeed they did need to act further.

The tone in Asia this morning is also weaker as markets digest a poor day for stocks yesterday. China’s trade data for October has provided regional markets with a brief excuse to rally overnight but the initial excitement has been faded. China’s October trade surplus reached $31bn (vs $15bn previous month) thanks largely due to a consensus beating export number (5.6% YoY vs 1.7% expected). Exports also managed to bounce back from last month’s -0.3% print. October imports also beat consensus, coming at 7.6% against median estimates of 7.4%. Losses in equities are being led by the Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) and Nikkei (-0.9%). There has also been some focus on the effects of a Category 5 hurricane which made landfall in the Philippines earlier today. Elsewhere as we go to print, S&P 500 futures are up 0.16% and UST yields are unchanged at 2.60%. France was downgraded to AA from AA+ by S&P overnight as we type.

Onto today’s payrolls, the expectation is for a rather modest headline gain of 120k in today’s report and for the unemployment rate to tick up 0.1ppt to 7.3%. Interestingly the most recent estimates from economic forecasters have virtually all come below the 130k level with a number of estimates under 100k – so it’s fair to say that expectations for the shutdown-affected month of October are biased to the low end. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how markets react to today’s report, and whether any weakness in October will be interpreted as being transitory. For the record DB is expecting a +130k headline print today, +130k for private payrolls and an unemployment rate of 7.3%.

Turning to the day ahead, French and German September trade numbers are scheduled early this morning as well as French industrial production. US payrolls will be setting the tone for the latter half of the day, which will be released at the same time as personal income/spending numbers for September. The UofMichigan confidence survey is expected to show that sentiment has picked up in November after reaching a year-to-date low in October. Bernanke will be making some remarks at the IMF Annual Research Conference late in the US trading session. Over the weekend, China’s inflation, industrial production and retail sales numbers for the month of October will be released. China’s much awaited Third Plenum meeting gets underway tomorrow where DB’s Jun Ma expects a wide ranging package of reforms will follow, in terms of industry deregulation, financial liberalisation, reforms to land titles, state-owned enterprises and social security.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/MbJgHwNQn9M/story01.htm Tyler Durden

In a mirror image of the NSA’s wanton invasion of privacy – whether ‘enabled’ by privacy policy ‘small print’ or not – NYTimes Charlie Savage claims that the CIA pays the US’ 2nd largest telecom company, AT&T, $10 million a year in exchange for voluntarily handing over troves of phone logs. This has been going on since at least 2010 and while the CIA is forbidden from “acquiring information concerning the domestic activities of US persons,” AT&T has indeed been handing over information pertaining to American citizens.

 

Via Russia Today,

Citing federal officials with knowledge of the program, The Times’ Charlie Savage wrote that telecommunication giant AT&T has been routinely collaborating in CIA investigations by surrendering phone records to the agency and even scouring vast archives of dated logs on their behalf since at least 2010, adding yet another scandalous chapter in the sordid story of the telecom’s long-lasting and often elusive relationship with the government.

 

…

 

done through a voluntary contract in which AT&T is awarded millions of dollars annually in exchange for searching its databases for the CIA in instances where the agency provides the phone number of an overseas terrorism suspect whose contacts are then called into question.

 

…

 

Representatives for both the CIA and AT&T declined to confirm the existence of the program to the Times, with the intelligence agency acknowledging that it is forbidden from “acquiring information concerning the domestic activities of US persons.”  According to Savage, however, AT&T has indeed handed over information pertaining to American citizens, the likes of which are supposedly subject to privacy safeguards — that could then be bypassed by other US agencies.

 

“Most of the call logs provided by AT&T involve foreign-to-foreign calls, but when the company produces records of international calls with one end in the United States, it does not disclose the identity of the Americans and ‘masks’ several digits of their phone numbers,” Savage said officials told him.

 

…

 

Speaking on behalf of the CIA, spokesman Dean Boyd told the Times that the agency “protects the nation and upholds privacy rights of Americans by ensuring that its intelligence collection activities are focused on acquiring foreign intelligence and counterintelligence in accordance with US laws.”

 

“We value our customers’ privacy and work hard to protect it by ensuring compliance with the law in all respects. We do not comment on questions concerning national security,” AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel added.

 

…

 

A caveat says that AT&T will indeed share personal information, however, to “Comply with court orders, subpoenas, lawful discovery requests and other legal or regulatory requirements, and to enforce our legal rights or defend against legal claims.” Another says information could be shared with “a responsible governmental entity in emergency or exigent circumstances or in situations involving immediate danger of death or serious physical injury.”

 

According to Savage’s sources, however, no court order is necessary for the sort of specific collaboration cited in the Times, and the exchange of millions of dollars annually suggests that the relationship is one that involves legitimate business transactions — with one party being the intelligence arm of the United States.

 

…

 

Elsewhere in their Privacy Policy, AT&T acknowledges, “We share your Personal Information with companies that perform services for us” and adds “we cannot guarantee that your Personal Information will never be disclosed in a manner inconsistent with this Policy.”

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/OzOElLhL1gA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

In a mirror image of the NSA’s wanton invasion of privacy – whether ‘enabled’ by privacy policy ‘small print’ or not – NYTimes Charlie Savage claims that the CIA pays the US’ 2nd largest telecom company, AT&T, $10 million a year in exchange for voluntarily handing over troves of phone logs. This has been going on since at least 2010 and while the CIA is forbidden from “acquiring information concerning the domestic activities of US persons,” AT&T has indeed been handing over information pertaining to American citizens.

 

Via Russia Today,

Citing federal officials with knowledge of the program, The Times’ Charlie Savage wrote that telecommunication giant AT&T has been routinely collaborating in CIA investigations by surrendering phone records to the agency and even scouring vast archives of dated logs on their behalf since at least 2010, adding yet another scandalous chapter in the sordid story of the telecom’s long-lasting and often elusive relationship with the government.

 

…

 

done through a voluntary contract in which AT&T is awarded millions of dollars annually in exchange for searching its databases for the CIA in instances where the agency provides the phone number of an overseas terrorism suspect whose contacts are then called into question.

 

…

 

Representatives for both the CIA and AT&T declined to confirm the existence of the program to the Times, with the intelligence agency acknowledging that it is forbidden from “acquiring information concerning the domestic activities of US persons.”  According to Savage, however, AT&T has indeed handed over information pertaining to American citizens, the likes of which are supposedly subject to privacy safeguards — that could then be bypassed by other US agencies.

 

“Most of the call logs provided by AT&T involve foreign-to-foreign calls, but when the company produces records of international calls with one end in the United States, it does not disclose the identity of the Americans and ‘masks’ several digits of their phone numbers,” Savage said officials told him.

 

…

 

Speaking on behalf of the CIA, spokesman Dean Boyd told the Times that the agency “protects the nation and upholds privacy rights of Americans by ensuring that its intelligence collection activities are focused on acquiring foreign intelligence and counterintelligence in accordance with US laws.”

 

“We value our customers’ privacy and work hard to protect it by ensuring compliance with the law in all respects. We do not comment on questions concerning national security,” AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel added.

 

…

 

A caveat says that AT&T will indeed share personal information, however, to “Comply with court orders, subpoenas, lawful discovery requests and other legal or regulatory requirements, and to enforce our legal rights or defend against legal claims.” Another says information could be shared with “a responsible governmental entity in emergency or exigent circumstances or in situations involving immediate danger of death or serious physical injury.”

 

According to Savage’s sources, however, no court order is necessary for the sort of specific collaboration cited in the Times, and the exchange of millions of dollars annually suggests that the relationship is one that involves legitimate business transactions — with one party being the intelligence arm of the United States.

 

…

 

Elsewhere in their Privacy Policy, AT&T acknowledges, “We share your Personal Information with companies that perform services for us” and adds “we cannot guarantee that your Personal Information will never be disclosed in a manner inconsistent with this Policy.”

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/OzOElLhL1gA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

A little over a week ago, the world’s first Bitcoin ATM was launched to much fanfare in a Vancouver coffee shop called Waves Coffee. This particular machine is made by a company called Robocoin and they sell for $20,000 per unit. While I applaud the company for installing the world’s first Bitcoin ATM, I have been quite vocal in my opposition to their requirement that you use biometrics in order to access the machine (a palm scanner). I find this to be an unnecessary feature that will only serve to condition people to use biometrics for financial transactions and I view this as unacceptable.

Another company called Lamassu, Inc. is also building Bitcoin ATMs and their machines do no require biometrics, so I will be watching their rollout closely.

My strongly supportive public position on Bitcoin has been made clear for well over a year now. In fact, my first lengthy article on it was in August 2012, when it was still trading around $10/btc versus $300/btc today. The article was titled: Bitcoin: A Way to Fight Back Against the Financial Terrorists?

The rollout of Bitcoin ATMs is a huge positive for the network going forward. The difficulty of buying bitcoins has been a huge obstacle that has prevented more people from getting involved. These ATMs will change that paradigm entirely for the communities in which they are installed.

More from the Washington Post:

A new Bitcoin ATM in Vancouver is off to a fast start, conducting $100,000 (Canadian) worth of transactions in its first eight days of operation. That’s according to Robocoin, the firm that created the machine and hopes to see the equipment deployed in major cities around the world.

 

“Robocoin has finally made Bitcoin accessible,” says Jordan Kelley, the company’s CEO. Kelley says that so far approximately 80 percent of the machine’s business has been people buying Bitcoins, while the other 20 percent has been people who wanted to sell their Bitcoins for cash. Robocoin says its machine is the first Bitcoin ATM in the world.

Full article here.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/gFIdgfG3t8w/story01.htm Tyler Durden

If you’re 24, buried in college loans and looking for a job in a city that’s affordable but not completely depressing, you’re probably wondering where to start (while spoon-feeding yourself ice cream in your high-school bedroom). On the other hand, if you’re in your early 30s and New York or Los Angeles is grinding you down into a quivering husk of financial and emotional instability, it might be time to get out. Either way, with new data showing that 36 percent of adults between the ages of 18 and 31 are currently living at home with mom and dad (the highest number in 40 years, according to Pew Research Center), vocativ thought it was high time to crunch the numbers and figure out where the hell you can actually live these days and still retain some self-respect.

 

Via Vocativ,

The Livability Index: The 35 Best US Cities For People 35 and Under

Our semi-exhaustive, mostly scientific guide to America’s most livable cities

We started with the 50 most populous cities in the country, according to the 2010 census, and pared down results from there using Open Internet sources. Our Livability Index takes into account 20 essential indicators for those between 18 and 35, like average salary, employment rates, and the cost of rent and utilities measured against everyday factors like bike lanes for commuting, low-cost broadband and the availability of good, cheap takeout. We also considered all-important lifestyle metrics like the price of a pint of beer and an ounce of high-quality weed, and the level of access to live music and coffee shops.

 

The following 35 cities represent your best chance of not dying jobless and alone in your parent’s basement. You can slice and dice the data by city or across categories, depending what you care about most. In the end, some bigger cities like Los Angeles and Chicago didn’t make the top 35 (though they may have ranked in individual categories).  

Click map for interactive exhibit:

The Top 35 Cities:

And Some individual breakdowns:

Youngest Population:

Cheapest Beer:

Cheapest Weed:

Highest Average Salary:

Grab your patchouli; it’s time to move to Portland!

 

Source: Vocativ

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/xBuH9jnIWW0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Did you know that 40 percent of all American workers make less than $20,000 a year before taxes?  And 65 percent of all American workers make less than $40,000 a year before taxes.  If you work on Wall Street, or have a cushy job with the federal government, or work for a big tech firm out on the west coast, life is probably pretty good for you right now.  But the truth is that most Americans are not living the high life.  In fact, most Americans are just trying to figure out how to survive from month to month. 

For many Americans, making a choice between buying food for your family and paying the light bill is a common occurrence.  But if you don't live in that America, hearing that people actually live like that may sound very strange to you.  After all, if everyone around you has expensive cars, the latest electronic gadgets and million dollar homes, the notion that America is in the midst of a very serious "economic decline" may seem very bizarre to you.

On Wednesday, the Dow hit a brand new record high, and Wall Street celebrated.  Since the financial crisis of 2008, stocks have been on an unprecedented run.  The top performers in the market have not just made millions of dollars – they have made billions of dollars.  Luxury apartments in Manhattan and beachfront homes in the Hamptons are selling for absolutely astronomical prices, and it seems like life in the good parts of New York City is one gigantic endless party these days.

Meanwhile, life is quite good down in Washington D.C. as well.  The wealth is spread more evenly, but on average the D.C. region actually has the highest standard of living of any major U.S. city.  The reason for this is the obscene growth of the federal government.  Over the past couple of decades, the U.S. government has ballooned in size and so have government salaries.  During one recent year, the average federal employee living in the Washington D.C. area received total compensation worth more than $126,000.

Out in the San Francisco area, Internet money is flowing like wine right now.  As I wrote about yesterday, top employees of companies such as Facebook and Twitter can make millions of dollars a year.  And if you were lucky to get a piece of the ownership of one of those companies at a very early stage, you are essentially set for life.

And with the Twitter IPO coming up, Internet euphoria is once again reaching a fever pitch.  For example, just check out what a 56-year-old administrative assistant said this week about why she is going to buy Twitter stock…

“I’m just buying because everybody’s talking about Twitter,” she said. “I’m just gonna take a chance.”

Is that how we should make our investment decisions from now on?

Just buy a stock because everybody's talking about it?

That is the kind of insanity that is going on in "wealthy America" right now.

Unfortunately, the gap between "wealthy America" and "poor America" is greater than ever before.

If you live in "wealthy America", what you are about to hear next will probably sound very strange.

CNN recently profiled a 44-year-old overnight prison guard named Delores Gilmore.  She works really hard, but a lot of times she simply does not have enough money to pay all of her bills…

"The first of the month, I pay the rent," she said. "The next check, I pay my light bills. Sometimes I won't pay my rent and I pay the light bill from last month — if they cut if it off. Then I pay the rent the end of the month."

Her life consists of going to work, taking care of her children, going to sleep, and then getting back up and repeating that same cycle once again…

"I'm not fooling anybody," she told me. "I don't have any friends. And that's sad. … I go to work, come home, take them where they gotta go, if they gotta go somewhere, come back home, lay down, go to work.

 

"That's what I do. All day, that's what I do."

Sadly, the truth is that tens of millions of Americans can identify with what she is going through on a daily basis.  In millions of families, both the husband and the wife work multiple jobs and it is still not enough.

If we truly did have a free market capitalist system, the entire country would be a land of opportunity and things would be getting better for everybody.  Unfortunately, that is not the case at all.  The following are 21 facts about "wealthy America" and "poor America" that are hard to believe…

#1 The lowest earning 23,303,064 Americans combined make 36 percent less than the highest earning 2,915 Americans do.

#2 40 percent of all American workers (39.6 percent to be precise) make less than $20,000 a year.

#3 According to the Pew Research Center, the top 7 percent of all U.S. households own 63 percent of all the wealth in the country.

#4 On average, households in the top 7 percent have 24 times as much wealth as households in the bottom 93 percent.

#5 According to numbers that were just released this week, 49.7 million Americans are living in poverty.  Tha
t is a brand new all-time record high.

#6 In the United States today, the wealthiest one percent of all Americans have a greater net worth than the bottom 90 percent combined.

#7 Household incomes have actually been declining for five years in a row and total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#8 According to Forbes, the 400 wealthiest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 150 million Americans combined.

#9 The homeownership rate in the United States is at an 18 year low.

#10 The six heirs of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton have as much wealth as the bottom one-third of all Americans combined.

#11 18 percent of all food stamp dollars are spent at Wal-Mart.

#12 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the middle class is taking home a smaller share of the overall income pie than has ever been recorded before.

#13 It is hard to believe, but right now 1.2 million students that attend public schools in America are homeless.  That number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession.

#14 One recent study discovered that nearly half of all public students in the United States come from low income homes.

#15 In 1980, CEOs at S&P 500 companies made 42 times as much as their employees did on average.  Today, CEOs at S&P 500 companies make 354 times as much as their employees do on average.  In fact, there are many CEOs that make more than 1000 times what the average employees in their companies make.

#16 U.S. families that have a head of household that is under the age of 30 have a poverty rate of 37 percent.

#17 At this point, one out of every four American workers has a job that pays $10 an hour or less.

#18 Today, the United States actually has a higher percentage of workers doing low wage work than any other major industrialized nation does.

#19 Approximately one out of every five households in the United States is now on food stamps.

#20 The number of Americans on food stamps has grown from 17 million in the year 2000 to more than 47 million today.

#21 At this point, the poorest 50 percent of all Americans collectively own just 2.5 percent of all the wealth in the United States.

So which America do you live in?

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Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Did you know that 40 percent of all American workers make less than $20,000 a year before taxes?  And 65 percent of all American workers make less than $40,000 a year before taxes.  If you work on Wall Street, or have a cushy job with the federal government, or work for a big tech firm out on the west coast, life is probably pretty good for you right now.  But the truth is that most Americans are not living the high life.  In fact, most Americans are just trying to figure out how to survive from month to month. 

For many Americans, making a choice between buying food for your family and paying the light bill is a common occurrence.  But if you don't live in that America, hearing that people actually live like that may sound very strange to you.  After all, if everyone around you has expensive cars, the latest electronic gadgets and million dollar homes, the notion that America is in the midst of a very serious "economic decline" may seem very bizarre to you.

On Wednesday, the Dow hit a brand new record high, and Wall Street celebrated.  Since the financial crisis of 2008, stocks have been on an unprecedented run.  The top performers in the market have not just made millions of dollars – they have made billions of dollars.  Luxury apartments in Manhattan and beachfront homes in the Hamptons are selling for absolutely astronomical prices, and it seems like life in the good parts of New York City is one gigantic endless party these days.

Meanwhile, life is quite good down in Washington D.C. as well.  The wealth is spread more evenly, but on average the D.C. region actually has the highest standard of living of any major U.S. city.  The reason for this is the obscene growth of the federal government.  Over the past couple of decades, the U.S. government has ballooned in size and so have government salaries.  During one recent year, the average federal employee living in the Washington D.C. area received total compensation worth more than $126,000.

Out in the San Francisco area, Internet money is flowing like wine right now.  As I wrote about yesterday, top employees of companies such as Facebook and Twitter can make millions of dollars a year.  And if you were lucky to get a piece of the ownership of one of those companies at a very early stage, you are essentially set for life.

And with the Twitter IPO coming up, Internet euphoria is once again reaching a fever pitch.  For example, just check out what a 56-year-old administrative assistant said this week about why she is going to buy Twitter stock…

“I’m just buying because everybody’s talking about Twitter,” she said. “I’m just gonna take a chance.”

Is that how we should make our investment decisions from now on?

Just buy a stock because everybody's talking about it?

That is the kind of insanity that is going on in "wealthy America" right now.

Unfortunately, the gap between "wealthy America" and "poor America" is greater than ever before.

If you live in "wealthy America", what you are about to hear next will probably sound very strange.

CNN recently profiled a 44-year-old overnight prison guard named Delores Gilmore.  She works really hard, but a lot of times she simply does not have enough money to pay all of her bills…

"The first of the month, I pay the rent," she said. "The next check, I pay my light bills. Sometimes I won't pay my rent and I pay the light bill from last month — if they cut if it off. Then I pay the rent the end of the month."

Her life consists of going to work, taking care of her children, going to sleep, and then getting back up and repeating that same cycle once again…

"I'm not fooling anybody," she told me. "I don't have any friends. And that's sad. … I go to work, come home, take them where they gotta go, if they gotta go somewhere, come back home, lay down, go to work.

 

"That's what I do. All day, that's what I do."

Sadly, the truth is that tens of millions of Americans can identify with what she is going through on a daily basis.  In millions of families, both the husband and the wife work multiple jobs and it is still not enough.

If we truly did have a free market capitalist system, the entire country would be a land of opportunity and things would be getting better for everybody.  Unfortunately, that is not the case at all.  The following are 21 facts about "wealthy America" and "poor America" that are hard to believe…

#1 The lowest earning 23,303,064 Americans combined make 36 percent less than the highest earning 2,915 Americans do.

#2 40 percent of all American workers (39.6 percent to be precise) make less than $20,000 a year.

#3 According to the Pew Research Center, the top 7 percent of all U.S. households own 63 percent of all the wealth in the country.

#4 On average, households in the top 7 percent have 24 times as much wealth as households in the bottom 93 percent.

#5 According to numbers that were just released this week, 49.7 million Americans are living in poverty.  That is a brand new all-time record high.

#6 In the United States today, the wealthiest one percent of all Americans have a greater net worth than the bottom 90 percent combined.

#7 Household incomes have actually been declining for five years in a row and total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#8 According to Forbes, the 400 wealthiest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 150 million Americans combined.

#9 The homeownership rate in the United States is at an 18 year low.

#10 The six heirs of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton have as much wealth as the bottom one-third of all Americans combined.

#11 18 percent of all food stamp dollars are spent at Wal-Mart.

#12 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the middle class is taking home a smaller share of the overall income pie than has ever been recorded before.

#13 It is hard to believe, but right now 1.2 million students that attend public schools in America are homeless.  That number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession.

#14 One recent study discovered that nearly half of all public students in the United States come from low income homes.

#15 In 1980, CEOs at S&P 500 companies made 42 times as much as their employees did on average.  Today, CEOs at S&P 500 companies make 354 times as much as their employees do on average.  In fact, there are many CEOs that make more than 1000 times what the average employees in their companies make.

#16 U.S. families that have a head of household that is under the age of 30 have a poverty rate of 37 percent.

#17 At this point, one out of every four American workers has a job that pays $10 an hour or less.

#18 Today, the United States actually has a higher percentage of workers doing low wage work than any other major industrialized nation does.

#19 Approximately one out of every five households in the United States is now on food stamps.

#20 The number of Americans on food stamps has grown from 17 million in the year 2000 to more than 47 million today.

#21 At this point, the poorest 50 percent of all Americans collectively own just 2.5 percent of all the wealth in the United States.

So which America do you live in?

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David Stockman has never been shy of expressing his true feelings (about Bernanke’s “Born Again Jobs Scam”, Calamity Janet Yellen, Obamacare’s resentment-encouraging rollout, and the entire Keynesian state wreck ahead). But this time, he aims his acerbic ire at the “markets.”

During a brief interview on FOX Business, the author of The Age of Deformation exclaimed “There’s no one in the stock market today except drugged up day-traders and robots… This is utterly irrational,” adding that “we’re in the fourth bubble inflated by the Fed in this century… but now we have the greatest, mother of all bubbles.”

The blame (and benefactors) are clear, he blasts, “how could someone in their right mind believe that you can have interest rates… at zero for nine years?… That is the greatest gift to the speculators, to the 1%, to the leveraged traders, to the carry trade ever imagined!” He concludes, “we’re almost on the edge of another explosion at the present time.”

 

In just over 3 minutes Stockman takes it all on…

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YCQSi_ehJVA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

David Stockman has never been shy of expressing his true feelings (about Bernanke’s “Born Again Jobs Scam”, Calamity Janet Yellen, Obamacare’s resentment-encouraging rollout, and the entire Keynesian state wreck ahead). But this time, he aims his acerbic ire at the “markets.”

During a brief interview on FOX Business, the author of The Age of Deformation exclaimed “There’s no one in the stock market today except drugged up day-traders and robots… This is utterly irrational,” adding that “we’re in the fourth bubble inflated by the Fed in this century… but now we have the greatest, mother of all bubbles.”

The blame (and benefactors) are clear, he blasts, “how could someone in their right mind believe that you can have interest rates… at zero for nine years?… That is the greatest gift to the speculators, to the 1%, to the leveraged traders, to the carry trade ever imagined!” He concludes, “we’re almost on the edge of another explosion at the present time.”

 

In just over 3 minutes Stockman takes it all on…

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YCQSi_ehJVA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

In 2009, Jim Rickards, a lawyer, investment banker and adviser on capital markets to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, participated in a secret war game sponsored by the Pentagon at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL). The game’s objective was to simulate and explore the potential outcomes and effects of a global financial war. At the end of the war game, the Pentagon concluded that the U.S. dollar was at extreme risk of devaluation and collapse in the near term, triggered either by a default of the U.S. Treasury and the dumping of bonds by foreign investors or by hyperinflation by the private Federal Reserve.

These revelations, later exposed by Rickards, were interesting not because they were “new” or “shocking.” Rather, they were interesting because many of us in the field of alternative economics had ALREADY predicted the same outcome for the American financial system years before the APL decided to entertain the notion. At least, that is what the public record indicates.

The idea that our government has indeed run economic collapse scenarios, found the United States in mortal danger, and done absolutely nothing to fix the problem is bad enough. I have my doubts, however, that the Pentagon or partnered private think tanks like the RAND Corporation did not run scenarios on dollar collapse long before 2009. In fact, I believe there is much evidence to suggest that the military industrial complex has not only been aware of the fiscal weaknesses of the U.S. system for decades, but they have also been actively engaged in exploiting those weaknesses in order to manipulate the American public with fears of cultural catastrophe.

History teaches us that most economic crisis events are followed or preceded immediately by international or domestic conflict. War is the looming shadow behind nearly all fiscal disasters. I suspect that numerous corporate think tanks and the Department Of Defense are perfectly aware of this relationship and have war gamed such events as well. Internal strife and civil war are often natural side effects of economic despair within any population.

Has a second civil war been “gamed” by our government? And are Americans being swindled into fighting and killing each other while the banksters who created the mess observe at their leisure, waiting until the dust settles to return to the scene and collect their prize? Here are some examples of how both sides of the false left/right paradigm are being goaded into turning on each other.

Conservatives: Taunting The Resting Lion

Conservatives, especially Constitutional conservatives, are the warrior class of American society. The average conservative is far more likely to own a firearm, have extensive tactical training with that firearm, have military experience and have less psychological fear of conflict; and he is more apt to take independent physical action in the face of an immediate threat. Constitutional conservatives are also more likely to fight based on principal and heritage, rather than personal gain, and less likely to get wrapped up in the madness of mob activity.

What’s the greatest weakness of conservatives? It’s their tendency to entertain leadership by men who claim exceptional warrior status, even if those men are not necessarily honorable.

Constitutional conservatives are the most substantial existing threat to the establishment hierarchy because, unlike dissenting groups of the past, we know exactly who the guiding hand is behind economic and social calamity. In response, the overall conservative culture has come under relentless attack by the establishment using the Administration of Barack Obama as a middleman. The goal, I believe, is to misdirect conservative rage toward the Democratic left and away from the elites. The actions of the White House have become so absurd and so openly hostile as of late that I can only surmise that this is a deliberate strategy to lure conservatives into ill-conceived retaliation against a puppet government, rather than the men behind the curtain.

Department of Defense propaganda briefings with military personnel have been exposed. These briefings train current serving soldiers to view Tea Party conservatives and even Christian organizations as “dangerous extremists.” Reports from sources within Fort Hood and Fort Shelby confirm this trend.

The DOD has denied some of the allegations or claimed that it has “corrected” the problem; however, Judicial Watch has obtained official training documents through a Freedom of Information Act request that affirm that extremist profiling is an integral part of these military briefings. The documents also cite none other than the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) as a primary resource for the training classes. The SPLC is nothing more than an outsourced propaganda wing for the DHS that attacks Constitutional organizations and associates them with terrorist and racist groups on a regular basis. (Check pages 32-33.)

This indoctrination program has accelerated since January 2013, after Professor Arie Perliger, a member of a West Point think tank called Combating Terrorism Center (and according to the sparse biographical information available, a man with NO previous U.S. military experience), published and circulated a report called “Challengers From The Sidelines: Understanding America’s Violent Far Right” at West Point. The report classified “far right extremists” as “domestic enemies” who commonly “espouse strong convictions regarding the federal government , believing it to be corrupt and tyrannical, with a natural tendency to intrude on individuals’ civil and constitutional right."  The profile goes on to list supporting belief in "civil activism, individual freedoms, and self government” as the dastardly traits of evil extremists.

Soldiers have been told that associating with “far right extremist groups” could be used as grounds for court-martial. A general purge of associated symbolism has ensued, including new orders handed down to Navy SEALs that demand that operators remove the “Don’t Tread On Me” Navy Jack patch from their uniforms.

The indoctrination of the military also follows on the heels of a massive media campaign to demonize Constitutional conservatives who fought against Obamacare in the latest debt ceiling debate as “domestic enemies” and “terrorists.” I documented this in my recent article “Are Constitutional Conservatives Really the Boogeyman?”

Obama and his ilk have been caught red-handed in numerous conspiracies, including Fast and Furious, which shipped American arms thr
ough the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives into the hands of Mexican drug cartels. And how about the exposure of the IRS using its bureaucracy as a weapon to harass Tea Party organizations and activists? And what about Benghazi, Libya, the terrorist attack that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton allowed to happen, if they didn’t directly order it to happen? And let’s not forget about the Edward Snowden revelations, which finally made Americans understand that mass surveillance of our population is a constant reality.

To add icing to the cake, a new book called Double Down, which chronicles the Obama campaign of 2012, quotes personal aides to the President who relate that Obama, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, when discussing his use of drone strikes, bragged that he was “really good at killing people.”

Now, my question is, why would the Obama Administration make so many “mistakes,” attack conservatives with such a lack of subtlety, and attempt to openly propagandize rank-and-file soldiers, many of whom identify with conservative values? Is it all just insane hubris, or is he serving his handlers by trying to purposely create a volatile response?

Liberals: Taking Away The Cookie Jar

Many on the so-called “left” are socially oriented and find solace in the functions of the group, rather than individualism. They seek safety in administration, centralization and government welfare. Wealth is frowned upon, while “redistribution” of wealth is cheered. They see government as necessary to the daily survival of the nation, and they work to expand Federal influence into all facets of life. Some liberals do this out of a desire to elevate the poverty-stricken and ensure certain educational standards. However, they tend to ignore the homogenizing effect this strategy has on society, making everyone equally destitute and equally stupid. Their faith in government subsidies also makes them vulnerable to funding cuts and reductions in entitlements. The left normally fights only when their standard of living and comfort to which they have grown accustomed plummets below a certain threshold, and mob methods are usually their fallback form of retaliation.

Austerity cuts, which the mainstream media calls the “sequester,” are beginning to take effect. But, they are being applied in areas that are clearly meant to create the most public anger. Reductions in welfare programs are also being implemented in a way that will certainly agitate average left-leaning citizens. The debt debate itself revolved around those who want the government to spend within its means versus those who want the government to spend even more on welfare programs no matter the consequence. The loss of subsidies is at bottom the greatest fear of the left.

A sudden and inexplicable shutdown of electronic benefit transfer cards (EBT cards or food stamps) occurred in more than 17 States while the debt debate just happened to be climaxing. This month, cuts to existing food stamp funds have taken effect, and food pantries across the country are scrambling against a sharp spike in demand.

Remember, about 50 million Americans are currently dependent on EBT welfare in order to feed themselves and their families. The response to the relatively short EBT shutdown last month was outright fury. Imagine the response in the event of a long-term shutdown, or if extraneous cuts were to occur? And where would that anger be directed? Since the entire debt debacle has been blamed on the Tea Party, I suspect conservatives will be the main target of welfare mobs.

The left, once just as opposed to government stimulus and banker bailouts as the right, is now unwittingly throwing its support behind infinite stimulus in order to cement the continued existence of precious Federal handouts. The issue of Obamacare has utterly blinded liberals to fiscal responsibility. Universal healthcare, perhaps the ultimate Federal handout, is a prize too titillating for them to ignore. Democrats will now go to incredible lengths to defend the Obama White House regardless of past crimes.

They are willing to ignore his offenses against the 4^th Amendment and personal privacy. They are willing to look past his offenses against the 1^st Amendment, including the Constitutional right to trial by jury for all Americans, and Obama’s secret war against the free speech of whistle-blowers. They are willing to shrug off his endless warmongering in the Mideast, his attempts to foment new war in Syria and Iran, and his support for predator drone strikes in sovereign nations causing severe civilian collateral damage. They are willing to forget Snowden, mass surveillance and executive assassination lists — all for Obamacare.

And the saddest thing of all? It is likely that Obamacare was never meant to be successful in the first place.

Does anyone really believe that the White House, with billions of dollars at its disposal, could not get a website off the ground if it really wanted to? Does anyone really believe that Obama would launch the crowning jewel of his Presidency without making certain that it was fully operational, unless this was part of a greater scheme?  And how about his promise that pre-existing health care plans would not be destroyed by Obamacare mandates?  Over 900,000 people in the state of California alone are about to lose their health care insurance due to the Affordable Healthcare Act.  Why would Obama go back on such a vital pledge unless he WANTED to piss off constituents?

Already, liberal websites and forums across the blogosphere are abuzz with talk of sabotage of the Obamacare website by “the radical right” and the diabolical Koch Brothers (liberals had no idea who they were a year ago, but now, they the go to scapegoat for everything). Once again, conservatives are presented as the culprits behind all the left’s troubles.

As I have stated in the past, Obamacare is designed to fail. The government has no capacity to fund it, and never will. Its only conceivable purpose is to further divide the country and excite both sides of the false paradigm into attacking each other as the reason the system is failing, when both sides should be questioning whether the current system should exist at all.

As the situation stands today, at least 50 million welfare recipients and who knows how many others exist as a resource pool for the establishment to be used to wreak havoc on the rest of us. All they have to do is take away the cookie jar.

Who Would Win?

Who would prevail in a second American civil war? Tactically speaking, conservatives have the upper hand and are far better prepared. Food rioters wouldn’t last beyond three to six weeks as starvation takes its toll, and mindless mobs would not last long against seasoned riflemen. The military, though suffering purges by the White House, still contains numerous conservatives within its ranks. Outside influences, including NATO or the United Nations, are a possibility. There are numerous factors to consider. But I would point out that the most dangerous adversary Constitutional conservatives face is not the left, Obama, or a Federal government gone rogue. Rather, our greatest adversary is ourselves.

If lured into a left/right civil war, would most conservatives be able to see beyond
the veil and recognize that the fight is not about Obama, or the Left, or tyrannical government alone? Could we be co-opted by devious influences disguised as friends and compatriots? Will we end up following neocon salesmen and military elites who materialize out of the woodwork at the last minute to "lead us to victory" while actually leading us towards globalization with a slightly different face?

If a civil conflict has been war gamed by the establishment, you can bet they have contingency plans regardless of which side attains the upper hand. In the end, if we do not make the fight about the bankers and globalists, the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, the Council On Foreign Relations, etc., then everyone loses. Who wins in a new American civil war? If we become blinded by the trespasses of a certain White House jester, only the globalists will win.

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