Tag: finance

US equity futures traded flat in muted pre-holiday trading, signaling another subdued open on Wall Street after Monday’s tech-led rally. As of 8:00am, contracts on the S&P 500 gained about 0.1% and those on the Nasdaq 100 were 0.2% higher. American Airlines shares fell as much as 5.5% in premarket trading after the company grounded all flights nationwide, however the stock then rebounded after the grounding was promptly lifted. European bourses, at least those that are open, and Asian markets both gained. 10Y yields rose 2 basis points to trade above 4.60% for the first time since May, while the US dollar also gained. Oil was flat and bitcoin reversed some of yesterday’s losses. It’s a quiet calendar with just the Richmond Fed mfg index and the Philadelphia Fed non-mfg activity update.

In premarket trading, American Airlines shares fall 3.1% after the company grounded all flights nationwide, according to an FAA advisory. Arcadium Lithium shares gain 4% after the chemicals company said it obtained all shareholder approvals for a proposed acquisition by Rio Tinto. Chip stocks also rose following a strong session for the sector on Monday, and as US President Joe Biden’s administration launched a probe into Chinese-made chips. NeueHealth shares surged 61% after news of the health clinic company’s acquisition by New Enterprise Associates and other investors.

With just a few sessions left in 2024, the S&P 500 is on its way to record a stellar annual return and back-to-back years of more than 20% gains. The index has risen about 25% since the end of 2023 with the top seven biggest technology stocks accounting for more than half of the advance.

European stocks, by contrast, have lagged amid lackluster economic growth and political upheaval in France and Germany. The Stoxx 600 has dropped more than 4% since a September high, heading for its biggest quarterly loss in two years.

“The year is ending with a renewed strength in the US market, thanks to an increase in breadth,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “The reality is that US growth has surprised everybody as it’s been very resilient, while unfortunately Europe is closing very downbeat as it still struggles to get some growth.”

European stocks follow Asian shares higher in subdued pre-holiday trading after a Wall Street rally fueled by megacap tech shares. All subindexes are up, with energy and travel and leisure leading the ascent. The Stoxx 600 added 0.3%, with many major markets closed including Germany, Switzerland and Italy; London, Amsterdam and Paris close early. France’s CAC40 is up 0.47%, and outperforming as investors seem to be taking well to the appointment of Eric Lombard as finance minister. Lombard is tasked with passing a 2025 budget and lowering the deficit. Prime Minister Bayrou said he aimed to reduce the country’s budget deficit to near 5%; he also provided a little relief in an interview following the appointment of the new cabinet saying the biggest companies shouldn’t take on all the burden of the deficit. China proxies in Europe are also finding a bit of support reports China plans more treasury issuances in 2025 with an emphasis on supporting the Chinese consumer. Among individual movers in Europe, Vistry Group plunged as much as 20% after the UK homebuilder lowered its earnings guidance for the third time in as many months. Renault shares rose as much as 1.9%. Oddo says the agreement between Nissan and Honda for a joint holding company is a positive for the French automaker, which is Nissan’s largest shareholder.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, with shares in Mainland China and Hong Kong among the best performers, while those in Japan were mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.4%, with Alibaba and Samsung among the biggest boosts while Taiwan Semiconductor touched a new record high. Chinese stocks bounced after Reuters reported that policymakers are planning to sell 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025, an increase from 1 trillion yuan this year. Honda Motor climbed as much as 14% after saying it will buy back as much as ¥1.1 trillion ($7 billion) of its stock. Nissan Motor shares slid as much as 7.3% in Tokyo after the company confirmed it’s in talks with Honda over a possible business integration. MSCI’s Asian equity benchmark is still headed for its first quarterly loss since September 2023, losing 6.8% over the period, even as the S&P 500 has risen 3.7%. Sentiment has soured in Asia in recent months due to concerns over higher global tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump, a stronger dollar and China’s lackluster economic recovery. Australian stocks edged higher after minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting showed it is more confident that inflation is moving toward its target, but will await additional data before making a decision on interest rates. Most Asian markets will be closed Wednesday except mainland China and Japan.

In Fx, Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar was steady. The yen fluctuated amid meager volumes as Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato warned about excessive foreign-exchange moves.

In rates, treasuries extended Monday’s bear steepening move with yields cheaper by up to 2bp across the long-end, steepening 2s10s spread by an additional 1bp on the day and adding to Monday’s 3.5bp widening move. 10-year yields traded around 4.60%, cheaper by 1.5bp on the day with gilts lagging by an additional 4bp in the sector. Treasury spreads wider on the day, with the 2s10s topping at 26bp and just inside last week’s multi-month highs at 27.6bp. The US session includes early 11:30am New York 5-year note auction, which follows a decent 2-year result seen Monday. SIFMA recommend early 2pm New York close for the cash Treasuries market.

In commodities, oil climbed in subdued trading ahead of the holidays after a three-day selloff, with focus on a strengthening dollar and President-elect Donald Trump’s roiling of international politics. Gold edged higher.

Bitcoin is on the backfoot and holds around the USD 94k mark, whilst Ethereum edges higher after a run of losses this week.

US economic data calendar includes December Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am) and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 6,043.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 504.17
• MXAP up 0.3% to 181.57
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 574.84
• Nikkei down 0.3% to 39,036.85
• Topix little changed at 2,727.26
• Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 20,098.29
• Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,393.53
• Sensex down 0.1% to 78,458.10
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 8,220.86
• Kospi little changed at 2,440.52
• Euro little changed at $1.0396
• Brent Futures up 0.6% to $73.09/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,615.21
• US Dollar Index up 0.11% to 108.16

Top Overnight News

• Fed announced it would soon seek comment on changes to bank stress tests to improve transparency and reduce volatility, a decision made due to the changing legal landscape, according to Reuters.
• Japan Rolls Out More Yen Warnings as Market Liquidity Thins
• Iran Oil Tycoon ‘Hector’ Plays Key Role in Arms Sales to Russia
• China Mulls Record $411 Billion Special Bonds, Reuters Says
• China Abruptly Changes Army General Overseeing Political Loyalty
• Biden to Decide on US Steel Acquisition After Panel Deadlocks
• Biden Team to Probe Chinese Chips, Setting Up Trump for Tariffs
• Bill Clinton Admitted to DC Hospital After Developing a Fever
• Fed Seeks to Smooth Capital Changes in Bank Stress Tests
• Tesla cuts the price of Model Y in China by CNY 10k

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly firmer in choppy trade following a similar session on Wall Street, where stocks experienced volatility with low volumes amid the Christmas period. ASX 200 swung between modest gains and losses with earlier downside led by gold miners. The ASX showed little reaction to RBA minutes, which offered no significant new information. Nikkei 225 was initially supported by recent JPY weakening, but gains were shortlived as USD/JPY slipped back to session lows and eventually under 157.00. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were firmer and outperformed regionally despite a lack of significant macro newsflow, although China convened a national fiscal work conference in Beijing, according to the Ministry of Finance, and said they will step up fiscal spending and accelerate spending speed in 2025.

Top Asian News

• China’s video game regulator approves 122 (prev. 112 M/M) domestic online games in December; approves 13 imported online games.
• Japanese PM Ishiba says will step up measures for increasing minimum wages. Adds that cabinet to approve fiscal 2025 budget on December 27.
• Japan’s PM Ishiba will work to eliminate the public’s uncertainty about the future in order to “boost private consumption”
• China is issuing a plan to encourage local gov’ts to introduce policies to bolster whole grain consumption, via State Media.
• China and Japan’s Foreign Ministers will meet on Dec 25th, according to China’s Foreign Ministry.
• South Korean Opposition Party is to propose the impeachment of acting President Han on Tuesday, via Yonhap.
• South Korean Opposition Party lawmaker says will wait until later this week to decide whether to submit bill to impeach acting President Han.
• China convened a national fiscal work conference in Beijing, according to the Ministry of Finance, and said they will step up fiscal spending and accelerate spending speed in 2025. Fiscal spending will focus more on people’s livelihood and boosting consumption. The government will arrange a larger scale of government bonds to provide more support for stabilising growth and will make efforts to fend off risks in key areas. Additionally, it will further increase transfer payments to local governments to strengthen their financial capacity and support the expansion of domestic demand. Plans include appropriately increasing the basic pensions for retirees and raising the basic pensions for urban and rural residents. Furthermore, China will improve tariff policies and deepen cooperation with ‘Belt and Road’ countries.
• Chinese authorities agreed to issue CNY 3tln in special bonds in 2025 (vs CNY 1tln in 2024), according to Reuters sources; part of proceeds will be use to recapitalise some large state-owned banks. Plans to use proceeds for consumer goods and industrial equipment trade-in schemes among others.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, noting that there have recently been one-sided, sharp FX moves and expressing concern about recent FX moves. He stated that Japan will continue to coordinate with overseas authorities on forex policies and will take appropriate action against excessive moves, according to Reuters.
• High-level government review board has told White House it is unable to reach consensus on national security risks involved in Nippon Steel’s (5401 JT) acquisition of US Steel (X), according to WaPo. White House spokesperson then said they received the CFIUS evaluation and the President will review it, according to Reuters.
• BoK said it would deploy market stabilising measures should FX volatility increase and noted that the pace of household debt might rise with the easing of policy rates, according to Reuters.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 +0.3% are slightly firmer today, in holiday-thinned conditions and with newsflow light. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the sentiment seen in Europe. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, paring some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Insurance is found at the bottom of the pile, joined closely by Consumer Products and Services. US equity futures are mixed and lack any firm direction, ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark.

Top European News

• Vistry Shares Plunge on Third Profit Warning From Homebuilder
• Turkish Officials To Examine Syria’s Energy Infrastructure: Govt
• UK, French Stocks Rise in Thin Christmas Eve Trade; Vistry Sinks
• Germany Set For Wind Lull This Week With Low Holiday Demand

Central banks

• RBA Minutes (December meeting): Policy needed to be “sufficiently restrictive” until confidence on inflation was achieved. The Board had gained confidence on inflation since the prior meeting, but risks remained. Members noted that the Board had minimal tolerance for inflation remaining above target for too long. They stated that future data in line with or weaker than forecasts would give more confidence on inflation, at which point it would be appropriate to begin relaxing the degree of policy tightness. However, if data proved stronger than expected, it could indicate a longer period before easing policy. The Board observed signs that policy was not as restrictive as the current cash rate level would suggest. The labour market was resilient, while service inflation remained more persistent. Wages had slowed more than expected, potentially indicating that the labour market was not as tight as previously thought. Monthly CPI data suggested a modest downside risk to Q4 inflation forecasts. Additionally, upside inflation risks had diminished, while downside risks to economic activity had grown. The Board noted that more data and updated forecasts would be available by the February meeting. Members also stated that it was not possible to judge the impact of Trump’s policies on Australia until more details were known.
• BoJ October meeting minutes (two meetings ago): A few members said they must scrutinise the impact of the past interest rate hike on the economy and prices when deciding policy. One member said they must take time and be cautious when deciding on the timing of the next rate hike. Members shared the view that the BoJ would keep raising rates if the economy and prices moved in line with its forecast. Additionally, one member noted that it was desirable to gradually raise rates if underlying inflation accelerated as projected. Another member pointed out that market rates could be lower than levels considered appropriate based on the BoJ’s economic and price projections, as well as its guidance on monetary policy. Meanwhile, one member stated that it was hard to indicate with confidence the BoJ’s medium- to long-term rate hike path due to uncertainty over Japan’s neutral rate level and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat and trading towards the upper end of a very tight 108.05-20 range, amid holiday-thinned conditions and ahead of Richmond Fed Index and US supply.
• EUR is incrementally on the backfoot and dipped just below the 1.04 mark in early European trade; confines for today at 1.0389-1.0410.
• GBP/USD has traded sideways in a very tight 1.2526-45 range, showing little momentum after reaching a broader 1.2526-1.2575 range earlier in the week.
• JPY is incrementally firmer thus far, but has traded sideways in the EU session. Overnight markets digested jawboning from Finance Minister Kato, which led the USD/JPY below 157.00; a level which has since been reclaimed. Japanese PM Ishiba said he will step up measures for increasing minimum wages; comments which sparked little move in the pair.
• Antipodeans are ever so slightly on the backfoot, with the Aussie unresponsive to RBA minutes. The minutes expressed confidence in inflation but cautioned that stronger-than-expected data could prolong the period before easing. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are tucked within yesterday’s respective 0.6218-46 and 0.5632-66 ranges.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1876 vs exp. 7.3031 (prev. 7.1870)
• RBI likely sold USD to limit INR fall, according to traders cited by Reuters.

Fixed Income

• Gilts opened lower by two ticks but has since slipped slightly to a 92.19 trough in thin conditions with newsflow essentially non-existent for the UK. In a 92.07-46 band, which takes Gilts below the 92.18 base from last Friday and below that the 91.87 contract trough from last Thursday as Gilts reacted to the FOMC from the night before.
• USTs are essentially flat in an extremely narrow 108-16 to 108-19+ band while the curve is, at the margin, steepening. As above, catalysts are light though the docket ahead includes a 2yr FRN and a 5yr Note auction. Ahead, it remains to be seen if any concession emerges into the US supply.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent began the European morning on a firmer footing and continued to inch a little higher; recent geopolitical updates suggest an Israel-Hamas deal may not be as imminent as previously anticipated. Additionally, Israeli press floated the possibility of troops remaining in Southern Lebanon longer than agreed under a separate deal. Brent’Feb 25 at the top end of the day’s range at around USD 73.20/bbl.
• Spot gold is on a slightly firmer footing and holds at the upper end of a tight USD 2612-2621/oz range; price action thus far has been very rangebound.
• 3M LME copper is on a firmer footing today, but still somewhat off the USD 9K mark (currently USD 8,972), in-fitting with the risk-tone and versus mostly subdued overnight price action.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Dec. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -5.9
• 10:00: Dec. Richmond Fed Index, est. -10, prior -14
• 10:00: Dec. Richmond Fed Business Condition, prior 10

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

A new study found that Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to reduce the amount of time spent with family members over the holidays due to political disagreements.

As reported by Breitbart, the survey from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), posted on December 13th, determined that “Democratic voters (23%) are nearly five times as likely as Republican voters (5%) to say they will be spending less time with certain family members because of their political views.”

In a statement following the results of the study, PRRI founder and President Robert Jones said that “it may be tense around the Hanukkah and Christmas table. It’s not just that we’re disagreeing about abortion or we’re disagreeing about taxes or even immigration… but we’re disagreeing about a fundamental worldview and about identity.”

Jones added that many respondents said their solution to such differences will be to simply avoid discussing politics during their family gatherings.

The survey was conducted between November 8th and December 2nd, 2024, with a sample size of 5,772 American adults. The margin of error is 1.72%.

Other studies have reported similar findings, with a CBS/YouGov survey in November finding that 72% of Democratic voters and 62% of Republican voters opted to avoid politics as a topic of discussion during family reunions.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

The fact that economic conditions are getting worse is certainly not good news, but it is better to know in advance what is coming.  After four years under Joe Biden, the U.S. economy is a giant mess.  We have been witnessing a slow-motion collapse right in front of our eyes, and those at the bottom levels of the economic food chain have been experiencing more pain than anyone else.  Of course this is one of the biggest reasons why Donald Trump won the election.  

Large numbers of poor and working class Americans are desperate for change.  Unfortunately, economic conditions have continued to deteriorate since early November.

The following are 11 signs that the slow-motion collapse of the U.S. economy is far more advanced than most people think…

#1 When the economy is in good shape, holiday spending increases each year.  In 2024, only 16 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend more than last year and 35 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend less…

Americans this holiday season say they are seeing a ghost of Christmas past: inflation.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds inflation is still haunting the buying public, leading to what’s shaping up to be just an average season for retailers. Just 16% of respondents say they will spend more, down two points compared to last year. Forty-eight percent said that they’ll lay out the same amount for holiday gifts, up five points. At the same time, 35% say they’ll spend less, down two points as well.

#2 The number of job openings in the U.S. is now the lowest it has been since January 2021, but unlike January 2021 we don’t have a pandemic to blame our poor performance on…

US job openings tumbled last month to their lowest level since January 2021, a sign that the labor market is losing some momentum. Still, posted vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the number of job openings dropped to 7.4 million in September from 7.9 million in August.

Economists had expected the level of openings to be virtually unchanged. Job openings fell in particular at healthcare companies and at government agencies at the federal, state and local levels.

#3 The manufacturing numbers that we are getting are extremely dismal.  For example, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index just experienced an extremely sharp decline…

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a critical gauge of the general business conditions in Philadelphia, has reported a significant drop. The actual figure stands at -16.4, a sharp decline that suggests worsening conditions for manufacturers in the region.

This figure starkly contrasts with the forecasted number of 2.9, highlighting a more severe downturn than initially predicted. Analysts had anticipated a positive shift, indicating improving conditions, but the actual data presents a different, more concerning situation.

Moreover, when compared to the previous index value of -5.5, the current reading of -16.4 further emphasizes the severity of the decline. This continuous drop indicates a concerning trend for manufacturers within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

#4 Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer just lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks…

Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023.

#5 Our cost of living crisis is officially out of control.  According to Bank of America, almost a third of all households “spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills”…

Many Americans are still in a tough spot: Nearly 30% of all US households this year said they spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills, according to a Bank of America Institute report, up from 2019 levels.

#6 A recent Lending Tree survey discovered that nearly a quarter of all households couldn’t pay their entire power bill at some point within the past year…

LendingTree’s findings about electricity bill costs comes as it reported 23.4% of Americans experienced an inability to cover their entire energy bill or portions of it in the last year, based on Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data.

#7 The same Lending Tree survey found that about a third of all households had to reduce spending “on necessary things” within the past year in order to pay utility costs…

Needing to cover utility bills prompted 34.3% of Americans to curb their spending on necessary things – or eliminate some altogether – in at least one instance in the prior year, LendingTree said.

#8 As I discussed last week, demand is at record levels at food banks all over the nation…

Why is demand at food banks all over the country higher than it has ever been before?  The media keeps insisting that economic conditions are just fine, but it has become quite obvious to everyone that this is not true.  In particular, the rising cost of living has been absolutely crushing households from coast to coast.  In the old days, most of the people that would show up at food banks were unemployed.  But now food banks are serving large numbers of people that actually do have jobs but that don’t make enough to pay for all of the basics.  The ranks of the “working poor” are growing very rapidly, and this is creating an unprecedented crisis all over America.

#9 During normal times, troubled retailers would at least wait until after the holiday season to throw in the towel.  But we haven’t even reached Christmas and Party City has already announced that it will be closing all stores…

Party City is closing down all of its stores, ending nearly 40 years in business, CNN has learned.

CEO Barry Litwin told corporate employees Friday in a meeting viewed by CNN that Party City is “winding down” operations immediately and that today will be their last day of employment. Staff were told they will not receive severance pay, and they were told their benefits would end as the company goes out of business.

#10 Not to be outdone, Big Lots has announced that all 936 of their remaining stores will be shutting down on a permanent basis…

Big Lots is beginning ‘going out of business’ sales at all its stores across the US, as it prepares to close its remaining locations.

The discount retail chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September, and has already shut hundreds of stores nationwide.

In a press release Thursday, the company said it would begin the sales at its 963 remaining locations, after a sale to a private equity firm fell through.

#11 As of the end of November, more than 7,000 store closings had been announced in the United States.  That is a 69 percent increase from last year…

According to a report from CoreSight Research, U.S. retailers had announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, which represents a 69% increase compared to the same time in 2023. These closures are spread across numerous different sectors of retail from auto parts to restaurants to pharmacies, leaving many consumers wondering which companies will survive. This brings us to GameStop, the beloved retail gaming store, which has not only been closing hundreds of retail store locations since 2020, but also appears to be on track to close hundreds more of its locations in the very near future.

This is what a failing economy looks like.

Last week, a prominent mall in downtown San Francisco was empty of shoppers in the middle of the afternoon…

Look at all of these beautiful Christmas decorations at the Crocker Galleria mall in San Francisco. It’s 4:47 PM and everybody should be shopping and buying Christmas presents for their family, but nobody is in this mall.

There are only three stores left that are open here. The escalators hum on inside this beautiful but empty decorated mall.

Outside on Market Street the fentanyl addicts lay folded over while a street performer sings Last Christmas to an empty Street.

Of course the lack of shoppers at that particular mall is just the tip of the iceberg.

Unfortunately, the truth is that downtown areas all over California “are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction”…

California’s biggest downtown areas are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction, causing a vital part of its economy to dry out.

Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have made countless headlines since the pandemic about their drug-infested streets where businesses are quickly pulling out due to high crime rates and low consumer passage.

The number of drug addicts in America is at the highest level ever.

The number of homeless people in America is at the highest level ever.

They are victims of our slow-motion economic collapse, and the holidays will not be very happy for them.

So if you still have food on the table and a warm home to sleep in, you should consider yourself to be incredibly blessed.

Sadly, more Americans are being forced out into the streets with each passing day as the slow-motion collapse of our economy accelerates.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

American Airlines experienced a “technical issue” early Tuesday morning, forcing the carrier to ground flights nationwide. The timing could not be worse, as Christmas Eve travel is just beginning.

“We’re currently experiencing a technical issue with all American Airlines flights. Your safety is our utmost priority, once this is rectified, we’ll have you safely on your way to your destination,” American Airlines wrote on X in response to angry customers. 

We’re currently experiencing a technical issue with all American Airlines flights. Your safety is our utmost priority, once this is rectified, we’ll have you safely on your way to your destination.

— americanair (@AmericanAir) December 24, 2024

The airline wrote in another X post, “Our team is currently working to get this done. An estimated timeframe has not been provided, but they’re trying to fix it in the shortest possible time.” 

Our team is currently working to get this done. An estimated timeframe has not been provided, but they’re trying to fix it in the shortest possible time.

— americanair (@AmericanAir) December 24, 2024

Nightmare Before Christmas:

The FAA just grounded all American Airlines flights nationwide… on Christmas Eve. pic.twitter.com/n2Pcdon1WJ

— John LeFevre (@JohnLeFevre) December 24, 2024

Something up with American Airlines systems? Appears no one can board their flights right now! pic.twitter.com/YTg3B2nTie

— Joshua (@Nextlevel1G) December 24, 2024

The source of the “technical issue” has yet to be revealed. Cyber attack? 

*Developing… 

Amid robust consumer demand and U.S. economic resilience, only a fraction of America’s largest companies have negative earnings this year.

In 2024, S&P 500 firms are forecast to see 9.5% annual earnings growth, exceeding their 10-year average of 8%. Overall, corporate profits have surged by nearly 70% since 2020, led by big tech companies investing in AI technologies. But looking beyond corporate giants, profitability is not as widespread given the riskier nature of small and mid-cap companies.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the share of companies with negative earnings in U.S. markets, based on data from Apollo.

U.S. Markets by Share of Unprofitable Companies

While the vast majority of S&P 500 companies are seeing positive earnings in 2024, earnings growth is being propelled by a handful of technology giants.

In 2024, the Magnificent Seven is projected to drive 62% of earnings growth across the index, with Nvidia making up 13% of the total. Over the next few years, this trend is projected to continue, although at a slower pace amid increasing competition from new players and higher infrastructure costs.

For mid-cap companies, seen in the Russell Midcap Index, the share of companies with negative earnings stands at 14%, given their higher debt loads.

Over the last decade, mid-cap stocks have lagged behind large-caps, largely due to the outperformance of big tech. However, earnings growth across mid-cap stocks has typically risen at a faster pace since many are developing breakthrough technologies.

Additionally, monetary easing and Trump’s proposed corporate tax cuts could have an outsized effect on small and mid-cap companies due to lower borrowing costs.

While small-cap stocks have been on an impressive run this year, the share of unprofitable companies is considerably high, at 42% of firms in the Russell 2000—up from 14% two decades ago. Like mid-cap stocks, they have underperformed large-caps since 2014, but increasing investor risk appetite may drive an upswing looking ahead.

To learn more about this topic from a performance perspective, check out this graphic on the growth of $10,000 across major U.S. indices.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is recommending taxpayers prepare for the 2025 tax filing season by taking certain key steps to make filing easier and help safeguard their tax information.

“There are a number of things taxpayers can do to get ready as the end of 2024 nears and the start of the 2025 tax season approaches,” said a Dec. 19 statement from the agency. The latest reminder is part of the “Get Ready” series in which the IRS publishes key updates as the start of the 2025 tax season approaches.

The IRS encouraged taxpayers to sign up for an IRS Online Account. The account helps individuals view key information from their recent returns, make and cancel payments, get electronic notices from the agency, set up payment plans, and sign forms like powers of attorney, among other things.

Besides the account, the IRS recommended getting an Identity Protection Personal Identification Number, or IP PIN. “An IP PIN is a six-digit number that prevents someone else from filing a federal tax return using an individual’s Social Security number or Individual Taxpayer Identification Number.”

“It’s a vital tool for ensuring the safety of taxpayers’ personal and financial information,” the agency said.

For the 2025 filing season, the IRS has made an update regarding dependents on tax forms.

Taxpayers claim dependents during filing returns to receive certain deductions and credits like the Child Tax Credit, Earned Income Tax Credit, medical expense deduction, and education credits.

Sometimes, multiple people claim the same individuals as dependents on tax forms, like for instance, former spouses.

The IRS processes tax returns in the order they receive. As such, if the agency had already processed a return with certain dependents, another return seeking to claim the same individuals gets rejected.

However, starting from the 2025 filing season, returns claiming same dependents shall be accepted by the agency, provided the taxpayer includes a valid IP PIN.

The IRS says the new update “will reduce the time for the agency to receive the tax return and accelerate the issuance of tax refunds for those with duplicate dependent returns.”

“The best way to sign up for an IP PIN is through the IRS Online Account,” the agency said. However, “if an individual is unable to create an Online Account, alternative methods are available, such as in-person authentication at a Taxpayer Assistance Center.”

The IRS also highlighted the upcoming estimated tax payment due date.

“Taxpayers with non-wage income—such as unemployment benefits, self-employment income, annuity payments or earnings from digital assets—may need to make estimated or additional tax payments,” said the agency.

The deadline to make these payments for the September–December quarter of 2024 is Jan. 15.

1099-K Reporting, Digital Assets

Taxpayers who sold goods or services and collected over $5,000 in receipts via payment apps or online marketplaces in 2024 “should expect to receive a Form 1099-K,” the IRS said.

The form details payments received by taxpayers engaged in such transactions. Taxpayers must now account for these incomes when filing returns.

When previously the form was issued if the total transaction value in a year exceeded $20,000, currently the threshold is set at $5,000. This reduction is part of a plan to eventually reduce the limit to $600.

The IRS clarified that “taxpayers must report all income on their tax return unless it’s excluded by law, whether they receive a Form 1099-K or not.”

“The law doesn’t allow taxpayers to avoid taxes on income earned just because they didn’t get a form reporting the payments received.”

Form 1099-K income threshold reduction has come under criticism from lawmakers.

Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) introduced the “Saving Gig Economy Taxpayers Act” which seeks to revert it back to $20,000. She called the reduction “a tax hike on Americans and gig workers who use online payment platforms.”

Meanwhile, the IRS also reminded taxpayers to report all income related to digital assets like cryptocurrencies when filing the 2024 returns.

“If a taxpayer had digital asset transactions last year, they should be sure to keep records that prove their purchase, receipt, sale, exchange or any other disposition of the digital assets,” the IRS said. This includes the fair market value of such assets measured in U.S. dollars.

The IRS received around $5.1 trillion in tax revenues in the latest fiscal year 2024, roughly $400 billion more than in the previous year.

While every family celebrates the holiday season a little differently, each with its own sets of customs and traditions, there are things that most celebrants can agree on, things that are considered essential for a merry Christmas.

According to Statista Consumer Insights, a Christmas tree in the house tops the list of holiday must-haves this year, with 50 percent of Americans considering it essential to a proper celebration.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Some proper holiday tunes (there’s more than “Last Christmas”) and Christmas movies, think “Home Alone”, “Love Actually” and (to some) “Die Hard”, are other key ingredients to the holiday season with 46 and 43 percent of Americans calling both essential traditions, respectively.

When asked about what they are looking forward to most thinking about the holiday season, Americans show that community and family still beat the commercial aspects of the holidays.

63 percent of the respondents look forward to spending time with friends and family, making it the top answer by far. Interestingly Americans also prefer giving presents (49 percent) over receiving them (28 percent), showing that not all is lost for Christmas romantics.

Authored by Adam Dick via The Ron Paul Institute,

Upon his inauguration as president, Donald Trump will become the leader of a United States executive branch mired in two major wars via its continuing pumping of money, weapons, and intelligence into support of the Ukraine and Israel governments. Trump has declared his opposition to the continuation of these wars. But, how can he end them?

The means by which Trump can end the wars is simpler than many Americans think. This means just does not come to mind for many Americans because it is far removed from the course US presidents have tended to pursue over the last few decades.

Righty tighty. That’s it. Taking the US out of these wars is as simple as turning off a standard outdoor water faucet. President Joe Biden has turned the handle all the way lefty loosey. Trump should just turn it back all the way. Shut off the money flow. Shut off the weapons flow. Shut off the intelligence flow.

And there is no good reason for Trump to take his time about it. He should turn off the flow of aid in all forms promptly in his presidency.

Doing so would comport with Trump’s stated objectives regarding the Ukraine War and the Israel War during his campaign and since. Trump has repeated his promise to end the Ukraine War in a day. He has also commented on multiple occasions that he wants the Israel War over before he is even sworn in as president.

Without US support, Ukraine and Israel lack the means to continue their wars. Deprived of the means to continue fighting in anywhere near the strength they have, both governments will immediately find themselves in a new situation where their best option is to seek peace.

Without critical US support, the Ukraine government will negotiate what it will give up in its loss to Russia. Meanwhile, Israel, also deprived of critical US support, will have to pare its ambition in its multifront war. Their only other option is suicidal fighting on in a lost cause. Sober military members would probably put a stop to that. No matter, it was never the cause — lost or otherwise — of America anyway.

What about negative political repercussions for Trump from his ending US participation in the wars?  Such participation lacks popular support, so ending it would seem a plus for Trump’s popularity. Further, since Trump won the presidential election portraying himself as the “peace candidate,” even people who dislike his extraction of the US from the wars would not be very convincing complaining of Trump acting inconsistently or hypocritically. Indeed, Trump could proclaim that his action is a promise kept.

There is even a political urgency for Trump to turn the faucet handle righty tighty. If he continues supporting the wars for weeks or, worse, months or even years, the wars will become Trump wars as they have been Biden wars. Americans would feel relief when Trump after significant delay terminates US involvement, but any effort then to praise him as a man of peace will be met with justified skepticism. There would be blood on his hands.

If President Trump quickly turns off the faucet for the Ukraine War, the defeat of Ukraine will be accelerated. Trump can portray such as the much-needed termination of Biden’s deadly folly, reminding Americans as Trump has over the past couple years that the entire conflict would have been avoided had Trump been president. Trump can also claim victory in stopping the killing of people — Ukrainian and Russian — something he has pointed to as his primary objective.

TRUMP: “I refuse to accept another round of endless war in Ukraine.

I want peace, they want money and conflict! Even if it means pushing us to the brink of World War III, which, frankly, is already happening and very quickly.” pic.twitter.com/OKU2JVBvAB

— Ben Swann (@BenSwann_) November 18, 2024

In turning off the war support for the Israel government, Trump is in a different position as he has expressed his particularly strong support for this government. But, Trump, as with the Ukraine war, has also expressed his strong desire for the carnage in the Israel War to end. Trump, when shutting off the faucet, can declare victory for Israel. He can claim the defeat by Israel of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He can claim also Israel’s elimination of threat posed to it from Syria. The war is over and won can be his message.

Trump will surely face difficult challenges as president, but on the major issues of the Ukraine War and Israel War, the solution is simple: righty tighty.

In better times the West Bank city of Bethlehem, where Christ was born, is festive and bustling with locals and international tourists and religious pilgrims at this time of year.

But the Palestinian city will spend its second straight year of the Gaza War with much more low key celebrations only done inside churches and not the typical huge festive Christmas parades through the main square. Absent is also the main large lit-up Christmas tree which usually dominates the town during the holiday season.

The Bethlehem Municipality has announced that the public celebrations that people often flock there for are cancelled and that events will instead be limited to religious rituals.

“For the second straight year, Bethlehem’s Christmas celebrations will be somber and muted, in deference to ongoing war in Gaza,” Time Magazine reports.

“There will be no giant Christmas tree in Manger Square, no raucous scout marching bands, no public lights twinkling and very few public decorations or displays.”

“Last year before Christmas, we had more hope, but now again we are close to Christmas and we don’t have anything,” the owner of the Nativity Store, Rony Tabash, told Time.

The isolated Biblical town, which lies behind Israel’s large wall which separates the West Bank, has long relied on religious pilgrimage and tourism for its economic survival.

A Time correspondent further details:

The city hosts more than 100 stores and 450 workshops dealing with traditional Palestinian handicraft, Qumsiyeh said. But just a week before Christmas, when the city should be bursting with visitors, Manger Square was mostly empty save for a few locals selling coffee and tea. Only two of the eight stores in the main drag of the square were open for business.

In the early half 20th century it was an almost completely Palestinian Christian town, predominantly Eastern Orthodox, but now this population has dwindled to merely a sizeable minority.

The growth of the Muslim population and the fact that Bethlehem is almost entirely surrounded by Jewish Israeli settlements has contributed to a steady exodus of the Arabic-speaking Christian population in search of better economic opportunity.

West Bank | A silent Christmas march is taking place in Bethlehem mourning the 20,000+ lives lost in the Israeli aggression on Gaza pic.twitter.com/s4XToueL0C

— TIMES OF GAZA (@Timesofgaza) December 24, 2023

In Gaza, despite new recent headlines of revived talks, a ceasefire in reality seems nowhere in sight. The war had long ago spilled over into the West Bank too, marked by Palestinian street clashes with Israeli police and military.

The about 15-month war has resulted in hundreds killed throughout the West Bank territories. Bethlehem, however, has been largely quiet but faces continued economic strangulation.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

European countries need to work out ways to lower taxes on electricity to revive the competiveness of Europe’s energy-intensive industries, Leonhard Birnbaum, president of electricity lobby Eurelectric, told Reuters in an interview published on Monday. 

Power prices in the EU are up to three times higher than in the United States, for example, which further erodes the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries including aluminum, steel making, chemicals, and cement production. 

Europe is losing and will continue to lose competitiveness and jobs if it doesn’t tackle its high energy costs compared to other regions, Morten Wierod, chief executive of Switzerland-based engineering giant ABB, told Bloomberg last month. 

To restore competitiveness for European companies which have been suffering from high energy costs, the EU governments should look to lower the high energy taxes, according to Eurelectric’s Birnbaum. 

“We appreciate that states always need more money, but if you really want to electrify then you can’t have, for example, an over-proportional tax burden on electricity compared to the tax burden on gas,” said Birnbaum, who is also chief executive of German utility giant E.ON. 

The problem with these taxes lies in the fact that part of the levies and fees on electricity are individually set by the single EU countries, where the EU has no jurisdiction. 

Earlier this month, Eurelectric and energy intensive representatives CEFIC and European Aluminium discussed how to strengthen Europe’s competitiveness and electrify industry. 

The group proposed six actions to ease the pressure on energy-intensive industries, which include “level out electricity taxes and levies.”

“Fixing Europe’s perverse energy taxation” is a way to lower energy prices and support electrification, said Eurelectric and the lobbies of the energy-intensive industries.

Taxes on electricity in the EU as a share of the final bill are respectively three and three and a half times higher for household and industrial consumers compared to natural gas, the industry said. 

“A well-functioning market with long-term investment signals, incentives to reinforce infrastructure and lower taxes on electricity are no-regret solutions that can be implemented immediately,” said Eurelectric’s Secretary General Kristian Ruby.