Tag: news

Don’t you just hate the smuggish guys that sit behind desks and that say ‘I told you so’? There’s probably only one thing you hate more and that’s the racers that are running to predict the end of the world. Doom and gloom. The financial world that is! But, it’s going to happen sooner or later this year, probably towards the end of the year and the start of 2015. The Federal Reserve and other world central banks have seen to that. Isn’t it surprising how the financial markets got themselves into a mess, and then the stuff hit the fan when the loose monetary policies started being bandied about as if it were the next thing since sliced bread? Pump up the volume and spray the money all over the place and then wonder why things go wrong. They sit at the Federal Reserve and wonder WCPGW. Unbridled optimism when Murphy’s Law predominates as it all goes pear-shaped.

Anything that can go wrong usually does. This is where it starts to go wrong today.

The Federal Reserve tried to put the fire out by spraying the cinders that had just been kindled with more banknotes. That Quantitative Easing didn’t ease a lot else than taking the weight off the governments that thought it would be a good idea around the world, momentarily making their lives easier. But, the game of falling dominos was bound to have endless repercussions around the planet.

The first in the long line to go were the commodities that erupted in a big bang in 2011, posting the biggest drops in gold and crude oil as the European leaders failed to stop the crisis when they should have done, with the ensuing erosion of energy, metal and crops. We all paid the price of that one. In December 2011 the Standard & Poor’s GSCI index (24 raw materials) fell by over 4% in one day and gold fell to its lowest price for 5 months. Oil also fell by 5%. 
The escalator went up and the lift just plummeted to the bottom of the shaft as investors wanted to get out of risk.

Then emerging markets dropped into the abyss and we now have a situation where the currencies of those economies (Turkey, Argentina, India and South Africa, amongst others) are to be off-loaded as quick as look at them, because the Dollar is going home as tapering starts. The Argentinian Peso has plummeted 84% against the Dollar in just a year.

Some are now predicting (just as they predicted the previous reactions) that it will be the housing bubble that blasts and goes pop (it will be a pop, because the rise was nothing like spectacular, but, it will blow all the same). The housing market has been propped up and credit has become easier to get even when there was no money in the pocket of the borrower. Dirty insolvency is still a problem. Bank on the increase of the economy and things will be ok was the order of the day and blindly turn your gaze away from the smacks of the housing crisis of the big financial crisis.

After the housing bubble bursts this year yet again, the stock market will crumble. Remember the lift will fall faster than the escalator that tried painfully to get us back to the top but that must have conked out half way up.

The ‘fall of man’ will be bigger than in the past. The original sin has been committed yet again and we shall fall from grace. Inflation has been handed to us as we enter a period of deflation; there’s no growth of any substance and there are no real gains in the economy in terms of employment try as they might to tell us ‘it’s just around the corner’. WCPGW?

Some specialists are predicting that there will be a fall in the S&P 500 to below 1,770 within the next couple of weeks, going as low in March as 1,600. The F**ederal Reserve** in the hands of Janet Yellen will have no other opportunity than to go all dovish and the market will act upon that immediately.

Predictions are bad because they are just that: only predictions. But, we all know deep down that the fall is on the books after the fools played with fire.

Originally posted: 

You might also enjoy: Kristallnacht on Wall Street? Bull! | China’s Credit Crunch | Working for the Few | USA:The Land of the Not-So-Free  

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fxCv7G Pivotfarm

Asset-gatherers and talking-heads are in full panic mode. Stocks tumbled ince again today and there was very little "off the lows" talk. The "turmoil" panic in the hearts and minds of every Wall Street strategist palpable as the Fed failed to save us from another down day. Trannies, Russell, and the Dow are down around 5.5% from their highs; the S&P down around 4%; and the Nasdaq around 4.5% from its multi-year highs last week. Today's plunge of over 35 points the S&P futures from the "where are all the sellers, EM is fixed" post-Turkey highs at 1801 is a very sizable outside range day. Of course it was all about the ongong unwind of levered JPY carry trades as 102 becomes crucial to any bounce in stocks. VIX rose 1.7 vols to 17.5%; credit spreads popped notably wider post FOMC; EM FX turmoiled considerably lower and while the USD was stable (there was plenty of puking in AUD and JPY). Treasury yields tumbled to fresh 10 week lows (10Y -8bps at 2.66% at the lows). Gold and silver rallied post-FOMC and recovered yesterday's monkey-hammering losses.

 

Spot the Diffference – JPY crosses vs S&P 500

 

Most major indices have now lost post-December taper gains…

 

As yesterday morning's short squeeze meant we needed to auction back down…

 

Only Healthcare and Utilities remain in the green among the S&P 500 sectors from the Dec Taper… (with Consumer sectors crushed)

 

Gold and silver recovered yesterday's slam down…

 

EM FX was crushed off Turkey highs…

 

Treasury yields jumped 6bps higher on the Turkey news at their open and then just collapsed all night and accelerated lower post FOMC…

 

Since the December taper, it appears (once again) that stocks were the last ones to get the joke…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Wondering how Fed asset "flows" and investor sentiment (and thus buying/leverage pressure) is related? @Not_Jim_Cramer shows this wonderful chart of investor exuberance getting ahead of itself as Fed asset growth rates slow…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fxCvEH Tyler Durden

Some perspective on the two “alternative currencies” – bullion and bitcoin -from the man who has run a hedge fund for 37 years and currently manages $23.3 billion, Elliott’s Paul Singer.

Bitcoin

 

After 37 years in the investment-management business, we are not easily shocked. However, two things about bitcoin have shocked us recently. One is that bitcoin and some of its fellow alternative currencies are finding such favor among investors while gold (the only real alternative currency) is languishing. The second is that the most heated investment-related conversation we have had in many years was with a young person who, when told of our mild dubiousness toward bitcoin, basically lost it and started yelling in its defense. Bitcoin comes with passion and belief – at least at the moment.

 

There is no more reason to believe that bitcoin, a computer-generated, algorithm-driven currency of supposed limited supply, will stand the test of time than that governments will protect the value of government-created fiat money. One difference: Bitcoin is newer and we always look at babies with hope.

 

If you are looking for an alternative currency, look into gold. It has stood the test of thousands of years as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Better yet, it is not just a computer entry out in the ether somewhere, and it was last seen available at a good price.

 

Bitcoin and its relatives speak to understandable impulses (against big government, in favor of freedom and modernity), but we do not see this particular experiment lasting. At least you have to work really hard to dig gold out of the ground.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fxCrVz Tyler Durden

Some perspective on the two “alternative currencies” – bullion and bitcoin -from the man who has run a hedge fund for 37 years and currently manages $23.3 billion, Elliott’s Paul Singer.

Bitcoin

 

After 37 years in the investment-management business, we are not easily shocked. However, two things about bitcoin have shocked us recently. One is that bitcoin and some of its fellow alternative currencies are finding such favor among investors while gold (the only real alternative currency) is languishing. The second is that the most heated investment-related conversation we have had in many years was with a young person who, when told of our mild dubiousness toward bitcoin, basically lost it and started yelling in its defense. Bitcoin comes with passion and belief – at least at the moment.

 

There is no more reason to believe that bitcoin, a computer-generated, algorithm-driven currency of supposed limited supply, will stand the test of time than that governments will protect the value of government-created fiat money. One difference: Bitcoin is newer and we always look at babies with hope.

 

If you are looking for an alternative currency, look into gold. It has stood the test of thousands of years as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Better yet, it is not just a computer entry out in the ether somewhere, and it was last seen available at a good price.

 

Bitcoin and its relatives speak to understandable impulses (against big government, in favor of freedom and modernity), but we do not see this particular experiment lasting. At least you have to work really hard to dig gold out of the ground.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fxCrVz Tyler Durden

When Jon Favreau (no, not the actor) left the White House last year, 33-year-old (high-school football-playing, pirate-costume-wearing, Harvard grad and Ted Kennedy intern) Cody Keenan took over the reins of chief spechwriter for President Obama. As Reuters reports, Keenan's speechwriting career took off after he crafted the impassioned speech that Obama delivered at a memorial service for victims of a 2011 shooting spree in Tucson, Arizona, where former Representative Gabrielle Giffords was seriously injured. A former professor noted "he doesn't take himself too serious," and we suspect, given last night's SOTU, the rest of the world now knows that.

 

The wordsmithing wizard of terrific teleprompterism dressed for work…

 

and his special speechwriting outfit…

 

As Reuters reports,

Six days before the State of the Union address, Cody Keenan posted on the photo-sharing site Instagram a blurred image of a speech draft with President Barack Obama's notes in the margins. He ended the post with "#SpoilerAlert #InsideSOTU-Cody."

 

 

No amount of eye-squinting could decipher the details, but if anyone knew exactly what Obama intended to say in his annual address to the nation, it was chief speech writer Keenan.

 

The 33-year-old Keenan wrote what will be his State of the Union address numero deux after taking over duties last year from Jon Favreau, who left after five years in the job.

 

… read more here

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1fxCror Tyler Durden

Just out from Citi’s Steven Englander

Fed leaves EM to twist in wind

 

From the viewpoint of domestic US economic conditions the Statement is completely anodyne. From the point of view of EM, the Fed has just said “hasta la vista, baby”. 

 

The comment on US growth was a not surprising upgrade in the growth assessment – economic activity ‘picked up’ rather than ‘is expanding at a moderate pace’, but very little else changed other than the expected USD10bn additional tapering. There were no dissents and no changes in the forward guidance language. Since the announcement MXN and AUD are down about 0.4%, so there is modest disappointment  in high-beta currencies. The S&P is down about 10points, taking down  US Treasury yields which initially spiked but have since dropped.

 

On these asset market conditions look to JPY , CHF and EUR to do well, commodity currencies and EM to do poorly.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e8rdK3 Tyler Durden

Just out from Citi’s Steven Englander

Fed leaves EM to twist in wind

 

From the viewpoint of domestic US economic conditions the Statement is completely anodyne. From the point of view of EM, the Fed has just said “hasta la vista, baby”. 

 

The comment on US growth was a not surprising upgrade in the growth assessment – economic activity ‘picked up’ rather than ‘is expanding at a moderate pace’, but very little else changed other than the expected USD10bn additional tapering. There were no dissents and no changes in the forward guidance language. Since the announcement MXN and AUD are down about 0.4%, so there is modest disappointment  in high-beta currencies. The S&P is down about 10points, taking down  US Treasury yields which initially spiked but have since dropped.

 

On these asset market conditions look to JPY , CHF and EUR to do well, commodity currencies and EM to do poorly.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e8rdK3 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

I have an old acquaintance named Sam who has a hell of a deal for you.

Sam is actually a pretty famous guy with a big reputation. Unfortunately he has been a bit down and out on his luck lately… but he’s trying to make a comeback. And Sam is prepared to float you a really great investment opportunity.

Here’s the deal he’s offering: you give Sam your hard-earned retirement savings. Sam will invest your funds, and pay you a rate of return.

Granted, the rate of return he’s promising doesn’t quite keep up with inflation. So you will be losing some money. But don’t dwell on that too much.

And, rather than invest your funds in productive assets, Sam is going to blow it all on new cars and flat screen TVs. So when it comes time to make interest payments, Sam won’t have any money left.

But don’t worry, he still has that good ole’ credibility. So even though his financial situation gets worse by the year, Sam will just go back out there and borrow more money from other people to pay you back.

Of course, he will be able to keep doing this forever without any consequences whatsoever.

I know what you’re thinking– “where do I sign??” I know, right? It’s the deal of the lifetime.

This is basically the offer that the President of the United States floated last night.

And like an unctuously overgeled used car salesman, he actually pitched Americans on loaning their retirement savings to the US government with a straight face, guaranteeing “a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in. . .”

This is his new “MyRA” program. And the aim is simple– dupe unwitting Americans to plow their retirement savings into the US government’s shrinking coffers.

We’ve been talking about this for years. I have personally written since 2009 that the US government would one day push US citizens into the ‘safety and security’ of US Treasuries.

Back in 2009, almost everyone else thought I was nuts for even suggesting something so sacrilegious about the US government and financial system.

But the day has arrived. And POTUS stated almost VERBATIM what I have been writing for years.

The government is flat broke. Even by their own assessment, the US government’s “net worth” is NEGATIVE 16 trillion. That’s as of the end of 2012 (the 2013 numbers aren’t out yet). But the trend is actually worsening.

In 2009, the government’s net worth was negative $11.45 trillion. By 2010, it had dropped to minus $13.47 trillion. By 2011, minus $14.78 trillion. And by 2012, minus $16.1 trillion.

Here’s the thing: according to the IRS, there is well over $5 trillion in US individual retirement accounts. For a government as bankrupt as Uncle Sam is, $5 trillion is irresistible.

They need that money. They need YOUR money. And this MyRA program is the critical first step to corralling your hard earned retirement funds.

At our event here in Chile last year, Jim Rogers nailed this right on the head when he and Ron Paul told our audience that the government would try to take your retirement funds:

 

I don’t know how much more clear I can be: this is happening. This is exactly what bankrupt governments do. And it’s time to give serious, serious consideration to shipping your retirement funds overseas before they take yours.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e8rb50 Tyler Durden

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

I have an old acquaintance named Sam who has a hell of a deal for you.

Sam is actually a pretty famous guy with a big reputation. Unfortunately he has been a bit down and out on his luck lately… but he’s trying to make a comeback. And Sam is prepared to float you a really great investment opportunity.

Here’s the deal he’s offering: you give Sam your hard-earned retirement savings. Sam will invest your funds, and pay you a rate of return.

Granted, the rate of return he’s promising doesn’t quite keep up with inflation. So you will be losing some money. But don’t dwell on that too much.

And, rather than invest your funds in productive assets, Sam is going to blow it all on new cars and flat screen TVs. So when it comes time to make interest payments, Sam won’t have any money left.

But don’t worry, he still has that good ole’ credibility. So even though his financial situation gets worse by the year, Sam will just go back out there and borrow more money from other people to pay you back.

Of course, he will be able to keep doing this forever without any consequences whatsoever.

I know what you’re thinking– “where do I sign??” I know, right? It’s the deal of the lifetime.

This is basically the offer that the President of the United States floated last night.

And like an unctuously overgeled used car salesman, he actually pitched Americans on loaning their retirement savings to the US government with a straight face, guaranteeing “a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in. . .”

This is his new “MyRA” program. And the aim is simple– dupe unwitting Americans to plow their retirement savings into the US government’s shrinking coffers.

We’ve been talking about this for years. I have personally written since 2009 that the US government would one day push US citizens into the ‘safety and security’ of US Treasuries.

Back in 2009, almost everyone else thought I was nuts for even suggesting something so sacrilegious about the US government and financial system.

But the day has arrived. And POTUS stated almost VERBATIM what I have been writing for years.

The government is flat broke. Even by their own assessment, the US government’s “net worth” is NEGATIVE 16 trillion. That’s as of the end of 2012 (the 2013 numbers aren’t out yet). But the trend is actually worsening.

In 2009, the government’s net worth was negative $11.45 trillion. By 2010, it had dropped to minus $13.47 trillion. By 2011, minus $14.78 trillion. And by 2012, minus $16.1 trillion.

Here’s the thing: according to the IRS, there is well over $5 trillion in US individual retirement accounts. For a government as bankrupt as Uncle Sam is, $5 trillion is irresistible.

They need that money. They need YOUR money. And this MyRA program is the critical first step to corralling your hard earned retirement funds.

At our event here in Chile last year, Jim Rogers nailed this right on the head when he and Ron Paul told our audience that the government would try to take your retirement funds:

 

I don’t know how much more clear I can be: this is happening. This is exactly what bankrupt governments do. And it’s time to give serious, serious consideration to shipping your retirement funds overseas before they take yours.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e8rb50 Tyler Durden

Natural Gas futures prics are exploding higher… By now everyone is quite aware of the US climatic conditions so whatever squeeze just took place has nothing to do with fundamentals, and everything to do with someone being Amaranth’d. The only question is who, and who is their counterparty (especially if it is a public company).

March Futures

 

and Feb Futures

 

The last 3 days in NG is +9.6%, -6.5%, and today +10.4% – these are 5 sigma swings!!

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1e8ra0P Tyler Durden