Data Center Wars: North Carolina Resists Innovation While Texas Considers Market-Based Rules


Servers inside a data center | Illustration: Anattawut/Dreamstime

According to a recent Gallup poll, 71 percent of Americans would oppose the construction of a data center in their community, largely due to concerns over potential environmental impacts, quality of life, and energy affordability. This strong public opposition has left state lawmakers scrambling to regulate new and existing data centers, even in states with low energy prices. 

In North Carolina—where the residential cost of electricity is about 13.8 percent lower than the national average—the state Senate is currently considering the Ratepayer Protection Act. This bill would likely increase the cost of data center development in the Tar Heel State by requiring every data center proposal with a peak monthly demand of “100 megawatts or greater” to include noise assessments for schools and homes “within 500 feet” of the project, and force developers to implement more expensive cooling systems within their facilities.  

While the bill takes positive steps to end government paternalism by prohibiting local tax credits for data centers, it also mandates that data centers contractually cover all service-related costs to ensure retail customers aren’t “subsidizing” their operations. Some AI companies have already voluntarily committed to financing grid upgrades elsewhere in the country, and President Donald Trump has called for this to be the industry norm moving forward.   

The legislation also introduces new ways for the state to pick energy winners and losers by also barring utilities from retiring facilities that generate more than 100 megawatts (MW) of electricity—enough to potentially power as many as 100,000 homes—until an electric utility in the state receives regulatory approval to build a new 1,000 MW nuclear facility. 

There are currently five electric utilities operating in the state, but only one, Duke Energy, has plans to build a new nuclear power plant. However, Duke Energy’s proposed plant won’t be online until 2036 and falls short of the bill’s stipulated generation capacity of 1,000 MW.

Still, this provision, if passed, could come back to haunt North Carolina ratepayers by forcing aging, expensive power plants to stay open, even when cheaper alternatives exist. This is exactly what’s happening in Michigan, where a federal emergency order has forced a coal plant to stay open more than a year past its retirement date. This order could leave ratepayers to foot $180 million in additional costs, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.  

And even with noticeable gains in deregulating the nuclear industry, North Carolina’s bill doesn’t appear to account for the startup capital required for a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant. In Georgia, home to two recently built 1,000 MW plants, the state’s ratepayers were on the hook for $7.56 billion of the $10.2 billion needed to complete the plants, borne through higher utility bills.

North Carolina isn’t the only state considering new regulations for data centers. In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages 90 percent of the state’s electric grid, has proposed two new rule changes that will determine which data center projects are built.

Data centers and other large loads have requested “roughly 450 gigawatts of power—more than five times the all-time peak power demand recorded within the ERCOT region,” according to E&E News. To help weed out the serious applicants from the unserious ones, the grid regulator is proposing a new process for connecting power-hungry projects to the grid, the Batch Zero Interconnection Study.

Rather than considering large-load applicants individually, as ERCOT currently does, the new plan will consider them in batches. To qualify for consideration, serious applicants must submit a deposit to cover the cost of grid upgrades, “prove they have a contracted customer, a signed lease agreement or deed for the land they’re building on,” and meet other provisions, reports the Houston Chronicle. Once approved, an applicant must connect to the grid within 30 days. 

ERCOT has also proposed a rule requiring crypto facilities and data centers “to stay online during brief grid disruptions,” according to E&E News. The operator claims the rule would prevent cascading power outages, as occurred during Winter Storm Uri in 2021. 

However, in comments submitted to ERCOT, officials from Google, Tesla, and the Texas Blockchain Council all objected to the policy, which they say imposes a one-size-fits-all standard rather than establishing a threshold based on the specific needs of its large-load customers.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas, which regulates the state’s electric utilities, still has to approve ERCOT’s proposed rules.

With data centers likely to remain a focal point in public discourse, states are beginning to reveal how they will address the issue. While Texas’ plan has received some industry backlash, it seems more flexible to market needs than North Carolina’s, which appears to be motivated more by fear of the bad publicity surrounding data centers than by market signals. 

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“The TQ+ Threat To LGB Rights”

From Andrew Sullivan (The Weekly Dish):

Governor Kathy Hochul has a decision to make by June 12.

The New York State legislature recently tackled the vital, pressing issue of whether the terms “mother” and “father” are cruel and oppressive. They concluded that these terms are indeed transphobic and need to be replaced in law by “gestating parent” and “non-gestating parent.” “Paternity” is also bigoted and axed. Among the Democrats, the vote was, natch, a few shy of unanimous. And let’s not kid ourselves: Hochul’s signature is inevitable. On all questions gay and trans, the Dems are now entirely controlled by trans and “queer” extremists.

Now take a look at this week’s Senate hearings on sex changes for children. Again, the Dems were unanimous, and their position utterly unchanged: the “safety” and “effectiveness” of transing children is beyond any dispute; no one but Republican bigots oppose it; and any problems can be dealt with retroactively by malpractice suits. (The only slight concession to reality was an end to the lie that transing children was the only way to stop them killing themselves. But no apology for the lie, of course. Or for the human wreckage the lie caused.) The Cass Review never happened. Affirmation-only guidelines never existed.

Gays and lesbians and feminists and liberals who oppose transing children and defend the fact of the sex binary? Senators Sanders, Markey, and Baldwin don’t seem to know we even exist. Unsurprising. MS NOW, to take one example, has never had a single guest who’s been critical of child sex changes. The Cass Review, when it has even been mentioned, has been instantly dismissed. The gay and lesbian press, such as it is, reports on all this as a trans genocide in full swing….

You can read the whole thing here. I haven’t followed all these issues closely, especially as to their political effects; but Sullivan certainly has. If readers can recommend sensible contrary views, I’d be glad to add links to them as well.

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Graham Platner Has Made #MeToo Democrats and Their Enemies Switch Sides


Chris Hayes, on the left, and Graham Platner, on the right | MS NOW/Youtube

Expecting any level of ideological consistency from partisan political actors is a fool’s errand; even so, the amount of sheer hypocrisy generated by the Graham Platner scandal is striking.

In response to fresh allegations that Platner, the presumptive Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine, was abusive in his past relationships, conservatives who in the past have been correctly discerning of the motivations behind certain sexual misconduct claims are now heralding these accusations as all but confirmed. In fact, they have assailed The New York Times, which published a detailed story about Platner’s dating history and alleged violent episodes, for not going further in its indictment. Meanwhile, many Democrats who gleefully and uncritically embraced the “believe all women” mantra of the #MeToo era are broadly dismissive of the Times story, even though the evidence of wrongdoing is arguably more compelling in this case.

What do I mean by that? The central accusation unfurled by the Times comes from Lyndsey Fifield, who dated Platner from 2013 to 2015. Fifield is a Republican activist, which is probably enough reason for some people to be dismissive of the claims: Her partisan reasons for raising issues about Platner’s behavior and character are obvious. Nevertheless, Fifield claims that Platner often grabbed her, dragged her, and shoved her during arguments and when he was drinking; he once “twisted her arm behind her back, shoved her into a bedroom and held the door closed from the other side so she couldn’t get out,” she told the Times. Fifield denied that he ever seriously hurt her, instead characterizing his behavior as “rough.”

In an appearance on MSNBC last night, Platner strongly denied that any of these altercations took place, though he has conceded to being a bad boyfriend in the past and has chalked this up to psychological trauma from his service as a U.S. Marine. The Times could not corroborate this part of Fifield’s narrative, though she claims she provided them with ample sources who could do so. In a post on X, Fifield slammed the Times for failing to include accusations of sexual assault allegedly made by other women.

“The journalists I trusted who convinced me to share a story I never wanted to tell methodically delayed and twisted this into a gift to the Platner campaign,” she wrote.

Supporters of Platner do not see it this way. Progressive commentator Cenk Uygur castigated the Times on X, calling the paper a “gossip rag” engaged in hyping up a “bullshit story.”

So conservatives are mad that the story doesn’t go harder against Platner, and Democrats are mad that it exists at all. That might lead an independent-minded person to conclude the story is right on the money, but I actually see some merit in both sets of criticisms. Fifield says that she provided corroboration that isn’t sourced in the story, and that she was told there were sexual assault victims who would go on the record. Instead, the Times focused on other past relationships they describe as “unsettling and at times emotionally wrenching.” But that’s unfair: No person accused of “emotionally wrenching” behavior can possibly disprove it, since it’s entirely subjective. Focusing on those elements of Platner’s behavior seems unfair.

The Times is on firmer ground when it effectively catches Platner in a lie with respect to his tattoo. Platner has claimed he had no idea the skull tattoo that marked his chest for 20 years was associated with Nazism, but Fifield provided the Times with fairly compelling proof that he did in fact know. Platner lying about that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s lying when he unequivocally states that the physical abuse did not take place, but it arguably speaks to his credibility.

Of course, all of that is beside the point if one applies the standards of the #MeToo era, which were simply that all women should be believed when they make an accusation of assault or sexual misconduct. This was, of course, the standard applied by progressive activists, Democrats, and many in the mainstream media when they considered Christine Blasey Ford’s accusation against then Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. For example, Rep. Ro Khanna (D–Calif.), a progressive Democrat and major supporter of Platner, cited the believe-all-women ethos when he called on Kavanaugh to withdraw in 2018.

Note that Khanna has not called on Platner to drop out of the Senate race—even though there is still time for Maine Democrats to select a different candidate—and even intends to continue campaigning with him.

That’s one prominent example of Kavanaugh/Platner hypocrisy, but there are countless others, including Sen. Ed Markey (D–Mass) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D–R.I.) and leftist commentators Krystal Ball, Kyle Kulinski, and Emma Vigeland. These people all believed Blasey Ford was telling the truth about Kavanaugh, even though there was no corroborating evidence whatsoever that he groped her; indeed, there was no actual evidence that the two had ever met. With Platner and Fifield, the fact that they dated for two years—and the relationship was at times very toxic—is not even in dispute.

While it would be a good idea for everyone to move away from the excesses of the #MeToo era, don’t expect partisans to do so consistently. The frustrating truth is that both sides are perfectly willing to overlook huge red flags when evaluating their own people; when it’s somebody from the other team, though, the rules will be applied mercilessly and with blinding moral fervor.

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The Trump Administration Is Still Fighting To Keep Billions in Illegal Tariff Revenue


President Donald Trump with a court house in the background | Illustration: W.scott Mcgill/Dreamstime/EPA/MEGA/Newscom/RSSIL/Newscom

The Trump administration is still fighting to keep billions of dollars in tariff revenue that it unlawfully collected from American businesses.

Despite begrudgingly starting to refund some of those tariff payments in April, the Trump administration told a federal court this week that it should not have to refund all those payments. If the administration prevails, it would only have to issue refunds to the businesses that filed lawsuits challenging the legality of those tariffs—which the U.S. Supreme Court struck down in February—while many other businesses would be out of luck.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also trying to shield a top customs official from appearing before the Court of International Trade (CIT) next week in defiance of a judge’s order.

To understand how we got to this point, let’s go back to the Supreme Court’s ruling in February. The high court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” but it left unanswered the question of what to do about the roughly $166 billion that importers had paid since Trump imposed those tariffs last year.

The task of sorting out the refund issue fell to the CIT, which in March issued a universal injunction telling the Trump administration to refund all of the IEEPA tariffs. At the time, Judge Richard Eaton wrote that “all importers of record whose entries were subject to IEEPA duties are entitled to the benefit of” the Supreme Court’s ruling.

The Trump administration is now appealing that injunction to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

On Wednesday, Eaton responded to the Trump administration’s appeal with a letter sent to the Justice Department and the appeals court. In the letter, Eaton took issue with the administration’s claim that it had “voluntarily” engaged in the refund process. In several attachments pulled from the Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) own announcements of the refund process, Eaton highlighted how the Trump administration was acting in response to the CIT’s orders.

“A stay would discourage continuing progress,” he wrote.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of another, related fight between the administration and Eaton, who has ordered Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott to appear before the CIT next week to answer questions about the refund process.

Having apparently run out of patience with the administration’s foot-dragging on the tariff refund issue, Eaton ordered Scott to appear before the court on June 9.

“Commissioner Scott’s testimony is necessary to ascertain if it is the Government’s policy to return all of the unlawfully collected duties either by complying with the court’s order, or by some other means—that is, if it is the Government’s policy to refund the duties to importers both large and small,” Eaton wrote on May 29, in response to the Trump administration’s initial attempt to get Scott off the hook. “There is $166 billion involved.”

In the appeal filed this week, the Trump administration argued that the CIT could not compel Scott to show up for that hearing. As of Friday morning, the federal appeals court had not ruled on the matter.

Caught in the middle of all this are the many, many businesses that paid the illegal tariffs and are awaiting refunds—though some business owners have told Reason that they don’t have much hope of ever seeing that money again.

Judge Eaton’s latest filing makes an important point: the progress made so far toward refunding unlawful IEEPA tariffs ONLY happened because the court ordered the government to act,” the Liberty Justice Center, which represented many of the plaintiffs in the IEEPA tariff case, wrote on Twitter in response to Eaton’s letter this week. “American businesses deserve their money back, and we will continue fighting to ensure those refunds are delivered quickly and fairly.”

So far, more than $20 billion in refunds have been issued, the Trump administration told the federal appeals court this week. In its latest progress report filed to the CIT on May 26, CPB said $85 billion in refunds were “processing.”

That still leaves tens of billions of dollars in unlawfully collected tariffs that must be refunded. Eaton is right to keep up the pressure on the Trump administration, which seems determined to weasel out of paying as many refunds as possible and keeping some of the ill-gotten gains from its unlawful tariff scheme.

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The Debate Over Israel Aid Is Coming. Congress Wants To Future-Proof the Relationship First.


Senator Tom Cotton (on the left) and Representative Mike Rogers (on the right) with missiles in the background | Illustration: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/ANNABELLE GORDON/UPI/Newscom/Dmitry Kalinovsky/Dreamstime

U.S. aid to Israel is one of the most contentious foreign policy issues in America. The last three years of wars in the Middle East—culminating in the latest war with Iran—have soured a majority of Americans on the U.S.-Israeli relationship, polling shows. And the aid is up for debate soon, as President Barack Obama’s “memorandum of understanding” guaranteeing $3.8 billion per year for Israel expires in fiscal year 2028.

Earlier this year, Axios reported that Israel was looking for a new memorandum of understanding that would last twice as long as the previous one but shift the money from direct aid to joint weapons production. Official talks between the two countries began this week, according to the Israeli Defense Ministry. And while officials were meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a letter to Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R–Ind.) praising “our plan” to replace financial subsidies with military-industrial integration within a decade.

The U.S.-Israel Framework for Upgraded Technologies, Unified Research, and Enhanced Security (FUTURES) Act is a step in that direction, creating a new office at the Pentagon for “industrial cooperation” and “data fusion” between the two militaries, with a focus on technologies such as artificial intelligence. In order to avoid a full congressional vote, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R–Ala.) inserted the law into Section 224 of the National Defense Authorization Act, the must-pass U.S. military budget bill. Separately, Sen. Tom Cotton (R–Ark.) created an amendment to the Intelligence Authorization Act making it illegal not to share information with the Israeli government, in perpetuity.

Critics say that Section 244 would impose even more onerous requirements on the U.S. government than the financial aid. “We are a sovereign country,” the libertarian-leaning, outgoing Rep. Thomas Massie (R–Ky.) wrote in a statement promising to oppose Section 224. “America calls the shots, not the prime minister of any other country,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D–Calif.) said during a House Armed Services Committee debate on Thursday, citing Netanyahu’s letter to Stutzman.

Khanna was nearly alone in his opposition. Section 224 passed the committee by a voice vote. Massie now has a chance to force a full floor vote of the House of Representatives on whether to keep the section, which he has promised to do. Rogers himself downplayed the importance of his own amendment. Section 224 “doesn’t create any new programs within the Department of Defense. It simply adds transparency and improves efficiency by designating a single official to coordinate existing initiatives,” he wrote in a statement.

“If this [bill] doesn’t do anything, why is it needed, and why are they only doing it for Israel?” says Josh Paul, the former U.S. State Department official in charge of weapons sales from 2012 to 2023. By forcing the Pentagon to prioritize Israeli integration, the bill shifts “the financial outflow from the (relatively transparent) foreign assistance budget to the (famously opaque) defense budget” and “introduces financial opportunities that could eventually eclipse the billions provided in traditional military aid.”

J Street, a liberal pro-Israel lobbying organization that opposes Netanyahu’s policies, also says that Section 224 is a rushed attempt to avoid “substantial debate between agencies, policymakers, Congress and the U.S. public” about the future of the relationship.

Cotton’s amendment, meanwhile, directs the president to “expand and enhance intelligence sharing with the Government of Israel,” which “shall not be suspended, reduced, or otherwise materially limited except on the basis of a specific and identifiable national security concern.” It also extends a similar mandate to any Middle Eastern country allied with Israel under the Abraham Accords. The president would have to report to Congress on the progress of this integration every five years, and to disclose any reduction in intelligence sharing within 15 days.

No other country in the world has this kind of mandated intelligence sharing under U.S. law. The closest equivalent is the Five Eyes, a coalition of spy agencies in English-speaking countries that agree to share electronic data by default. But the Five Eyes is governed by executive agreements, not a legally-binding treaty or act of Congress, and the U.S. government has plenty of discretion to withhold information from the other four “eyes.” For example, the Trump administration declared intelligence on Russian-Ukrainian peace talks for American eyes only

“The goal here is to tie the hands of a future president who tries to de-exceptionalize the U.S.-Israel security relationship, in this case by requiring them to publicly justify any downgrade to U.S.-Israel intel sharing, in the hope that they’d be pressured or embarrassed into reconsidering,” says former U.S. Army Maj. Harrison Mann, who served in the Defense Intelligence Agency’s Middle Eastern office. But, he says, there is “no shortage” of legitimate “national security concerns” within the U.S. intelligence community if a future administration was determined to stop giving Israel information.

Cotton did not respond to a request for comment. The text of his amendment says that “timely and actionable intelligence sharing between the United States and Israel has saved United States personnel and property in the region and should remain a central pillar of the bilateral security relationship.”

Mann disputes Cotton’s description, arguing that “Israel’s priorities and the limits of its capabilities” means that U.S. intelligence sharing is “largely a one-way street.”

Intelligence sharing has also involved the U.S. more deeply in Middle Eastern conflicts than the public realizes. When the U.S. military sent intelligence teams to Israel and began flying drones over Gaza in November 2023, the Biden administration initially denied that they were involved in the Israeli targeting process. After Israeli forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar a year later, President Joe Biden took credit for helping track and target him—an admission that his administration had been lying before.

Unlike Section 224, the Cotton amendment has not run into public opposition in Congress yet. But it may be trying to preempt changing political winds. Last month, 12 senators sent U.S. Central Command a letter asking about the extent of U.S. intelligence involvement in Israel’s war with Lebanon. (A staffer for one of those senators tells Reason that they have not received a response.) On Thursday, 91 members of Congress voted for an (ultimately-failed) war powers resolution that would cut off any such U.S. support in Lebanon.

Paul and Mann are both symbols of this shift in opinion. After resigning from the State Department in protest against the Gaza war, Paul founded a political action committee called A New Policy, dedicated to changing U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Mann resigned from the U.S. military in protest of that same conflict, and joined the nonprofit Win Without War. 

“There has been a transformation in U.S. public opinion, and no one believes the current level of unconditional support for Israel is politically sustainable,” says Paul. “What we’re looking at for the remainder of this year therefore is perhaps their last window to lock America into a relationship with Israel that is insulated from the political process—and that is insulated from American democracy.”

Khanna echoed the same sentiment in his committee speech against Section 224. Americans “want less cooperation and blank checks to Israel, not more,” he said. “Only the United States Congress would dream up at this moment, let’s actually do more for Israel, not less. And that’s what Section 224 does. It’s a very simple thing.”

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The Trump Administration Is Still Fighting To Keep Billions in Illegal Tariff Revenue


President Donald Trump with a court house in the background | Illustration: W.scott Mcgill/Dreamstime/EPA/MEGA/Newscom/RSSIL/Newscom

The Trump administration is still fighting to keep billions of dollars in tariff revenue that it unlawfully collected from American businesses.

Despite begrudgingly starting to refund some of those tariff payments in April, the Trump administration told a federal court this week that it should not have to refund all those payments. If the administration prevails, it would only have to issue refunds to the businesses that filed lawsuits challenging the legality of those tariffs—which the U.S. Supreme Court struck down in February—while many other businesses would be out of luck.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also trying to shield a top customs official from appearing before the Court of International Trade (CIT) next week in defiance of a judge’s order.

To understand how we got to this point, let’s go back to the Supreme Court’s ruling in February. The high court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” but it left unanswered the question of what to do about the roughly $166 billion that importers had paid since Trump imposed those tariffs last year.

The task of sorting out the refund issue fell to the CIT, which in March issued a universal injunction telling the Trump administration to refund all of the IEEPA tariffs. At the time, Judge Richard Eaton wrote that “all importers of record whose entries were subject to IEEPA duties are entitled to the benefit of” the Supreme Court’s ruling.

The Trump administration is now appealing that injunction to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

On Wednesday, Eaton responded to the Trump administration’s appeal with a letter sent to the Justice Department and the appeals court. In the letter, Eaton took issue with the administration’s claim that it had “voluntarily” engaged in the refund process. In several attachments pulled from the Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) own announcements of the refund process, Eaton highlighted how the Trump administration was acting in response to the CIT’s orders.

“A stay would discourage continuing progress,” he wrote.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of another, related fight between the administration and Eaton, who has ordered Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott to appear before the CIT next week to answer questions about the refund process.

Having apparently run out of patience with the administration’s foot-dragging on the tariff refund issue, Eaton ordered Scott to appear before the court on June 9.

“Commissioner Scott’s testimony is necessary to ascertain if it is the Government’s policy to return all of the unlawfully collected duties either by complying with the court’s order, or by some other means—that is, if it is the Government’s policy to refund the duties to importers both large and small,” Eaton wrote on May 29, in response to the Trump administration’s initial attempt to get Scott off the hook. “There is $166 billion involved.”

In the appeal filed this week, the Trump administration argued that the CIT could not compel Scott to show up for that hearing. As of Friday morning, the federal appeals court had not ruled on the matter.

Caught in the middle of all this are the many, many businesses that paid the illegal tariffs and are awaiting refunds—though some business owners have told Reason that they don’t have much hope of ever seeing that money again.

Judge Eaton’s latest filing makes an important point: the progress made so far toward refunding unlawful IEEPA tariffs ONLY happened because the court ordered the government to act,” the Liberty Justice Center, which represented many of the plaintiffs in the IEEPA tariff case, wrote on Twitter in response to Eaton’s letter this week. “American businesses deserve their money back, and we will continue fighting to ensure those refunds are delivered quickly and fairly.”

So far, more than $20 billion in refunds have been issued, the Trump administration told the federal appeals court this week. In its latest progress report filed to the CIT on May 26, CPB said $85 billion in refunds were “processing.”

That still leaves tens of billions of dollars in unlawfully collected tariffs that must be refunded. Eaton is right to keep up the pressure on the Trump administration, which seems determined to weasel out of paying as many refunds as possible and keeping some of the ill-gotten gains from its unlawful tariff scheme.

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New Footage Reveals Ford Carrier Damage Far More Severe Than Pentagon Acknowledged

New Footage Reveals Ford Carrier Damage Far More Severe Than Pentagon Acknowledged

Newly surfaced footage obtained by CNN indicates that a severe fire aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford – the world’s largest aircraft carrier – inflicted far more extensive damage than the Trump administration initially admitted to the public.

Early in the conflict it was forced to depart Mideast regional waters and retreat West in the Mediterranean, before undergoing extensive repairs at port in Croatia. Pundits were skeptical of official explanations, which suggested an accidental fire was sparked in the laundry room aboard the giant vessel.

US Navy file: Ford carrier

The major blaze erupted in March at a moment Iran claimed to have directly hit US naval vessels, but crisis was consistently downplayed by Pentagon officials at the time.

The obtained video reveals severely destroyed sleeping quarters, showing sailors’ bunks entirely reduced to charred, twisted metal. The ceiling directly above the berthing areas appears completely gutted by the intense flames, while exposed wiring hangs from overhead and thick ash blankets the floor.

One sailor and eyewitness stationed on board the aircraft carrier told CNN: “I seriously thought we were going to lose the ship. It’s either fight or die.”

This doesn’t sound like some localized fire in a small compartment, but a massive emergency – which as we now now derailed the Ford’s ongoing Iran mission in CENTCOM regional waters.

According to prior revealed details, it took the carrier’s crew approximately 30 hours of continuous damage control to fully extinguish the fire, clear out the wreckage, and importantly prevent the fire from reigniting. Some

600 sailors were displaced and left without access to their standard bunks, it had been revealed soon after the event took place.

While the definitive cause of the fire remains unclear, Tehran has claimed responsibility, asserting it successfully targeted the premier American aircraft carrier.

Again, this has fueled widespread speculation that the Iranian account could be accurate, given the Pentagon is known to have downplayed other instances where significant military hardware came under fire.

Prior reporting has also underscored that the blaze actually hindered combat operations against Iran. The incident has been confirmed to have resulted in a complete halt to two days of combat operations. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, had described two months ago, “They fought that, put it out, and started flying sorties two days after that, so I’m very proud of that crew.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 12:40

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Morgan Stanley Projects SpaceX Revenue Hitting Stratospheric $3.4 Trillion In 2040, $2.7 Trillion In EBITDA

Morgan Stanley Projects SpaceX Revenue Hitting Stratospheric $3.4 Trillion In 2040, $2.7 Trillion In EBITDA

Yesterday we shared a forensic analysis of the mechanics of the $75 billion SpaceX IPO and how to trade it, while specifically saying we are leaving the fundamentals aside. The reason for that is that the historicals of the company are, to put it mildly, problematic when it comes to projecting how the company grows into a multi-trillion behemoth. 

As a reminder, SpaceX posted revenue of just under $20 billion for the LTM period, with approximately $6 billion EBITDA and loss of $4 billion, virtually all driven by the conglomerate’s Connectivity (Starlink) division and to a lesser extend, the Launch Services division. Solid numbers on their own, but do they justify a $1.75 trillion in valuation?

So how exactly does SpaceX get from here to there? 

We got the answer this morning courtesy of the WSJ which got its hands on an analysis shared by Morgan Stanley with top investors. 

Needless to say, to support the $1.77 trillion valuation Elon Musk’s SpaceX is targeting in its IPO, bankers are telling investors to look to the future…. far into the future. 

Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040. The bank told investors the rocket maker’s adjusted EBITDA in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion, or a largely unheard of 80% EBITDA margin.

Some more details: the WSJ also notes that sellside analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both projected SpaceX’s revenue would be near $160 billion in 2028, up from $20 billion currently. Goldman estimated that the rocket company’s revenue would exceed $470 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected it would reach nearly $330 billion. Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect SpaceX to have adjusted EBITDA of around $110 billion in 2028 and $352 billion and $230 billion, respectively, in 2030. 

Using these data, we have charted how SpaceX revenue and EBITDA would have to grow (assuming a 2028 baseline of $160BN in revenue and $110 billion in EBITDA). The projection is… aggressive.

To get to those stratospheric – no pun intended – levels, both banks anticipate revenue from SpaceX’s AI business to provide the bulk of the revenue after this year and grow dramatically. Goldman projected that unit would contribute around $322 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected around $190 billion that year. SpaceX reported revenue from its nascent AI division of $3.2 billion in 2025.

How realistic are these assumptions? Some thoughts from Brandon Carl, who writes that the MS forecast would require 14% US GDP growth over 14 years . The long-term average is 6.5%.:

“Most Successful Company Ever” Assumptions

  • SpaceX commands 5% of US corporate profits
  • Corporate profits become 15% of GDP, by far a record

Implications

  • Total US corporate profits = $54 trillion
  • US GDP = $205 trillion
  • 14 year US GDP growth rate = 14%

“Still Aggressive” Assumptions

  • SpaceX commands 2% of corporate profits
  • Corporate profits are 10% of GDP, historically high
  • Then US GDP = $770 trillion growing at 26%

Assume that EBITDA is about 1.75x profits, so profits = $1.54 trillion.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley are certainly redefining the hockeystick when it comes to the SpaceX IPO: the two banks snagged the top two roles out of the 21 banks on SpaceX’s IPO, putting their banks in line to get the biggest shares of the hundreds of millions of dollars of fees. Which is why if for whatever reason the IPO bombs or fails to launch they stand to lose the most.

So will people “buy” these ludicrous projections? Well, according to Bloomberg, with one week left to go until the actual IPO, the offering is already oversubscribed.

  • *SPACEX IPO IS SAID TO DRAW MORE ORDERS THAN SHARES AVAILABLE

This means that the deal will almost certainly price at Musk’s desired offering price of $135. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 12:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/TvKuBlj Tyler Durden

Micro-Cap ‘War Unicorn’ Merlin Soars After Advancing AI Pilot For C-130 Military Plane

Micro-Cap ‘War Unicorn’ Merlin Soars After Advancing AI Pilot For C-130 Military Plane

Aerospace and defense technology firm Merlin jumped in premarket trading after announcing that its AI-powered autonomous flight software for the C-130J Super Hercules cargo plane, developed with U.S. Special Operations Command, is moving toward formal testing.

Merlin wrote in a press release earlier that its AI-powered autonomous flight software has “successfully completed” the critical design review for the C-130J, adding the “milestone positions the program to enter a structured formal test campaign, including aircraft-level testing, reflecting a disciplined systems engineering progression from design through verification.”

The Merlin AI Pilot will automate flight operations for the C-130J from takeoff to touchdown and is framed as an “operating system” for autonomous aviation.

The C-130 is the workhorse cargo plane of the U.S. military. The upgraded version, by slapping a “J” on the end, includes:

  • Newer turboprop engines

  • Six-blade composite propellers

  • Digital cockpit and avionics

  • Reduced crew requirements

  • Better range, climb, speed, and fuel efficiency than older C-130s

Shares of the micro-cap defense company jumped 28% in premarket trading.

Merlin also pointed out that it is “rapidly advancing its AI-powered autonomy stack onboard the C-130J, with potential pathways for expansion across other Department of War or commercial aviation platforms.”

The rise of “war unicorns” has been an important theme this year as the Department of War resets its procurement program toward startups and away from big legacy primes.

Goldman analysts also recognize the rise of defense startups and sat down with Palmer Luckey’s Anduril earlier this week. Read the note here.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 11:50

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ISS Astronauts Told To Prepare For Possible Evacuation As Air Leak Worsens

ISS Astronauts Told To Prepare For Possible Evacuation As Air Leak Worsens

NASA senior adviser and press secretary Bethany Stevens wrote on X that astronauts aboard the International Space Station have quickly shifted into SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and are prepared to evacuate if needed, after cracks and leaks in the Zvezda service module transfer tunnel appeared to worsen.

“The Zvezda service module transfer tunnel, known as PrK, has suffered from cracks and leaks for some time, and has been mitigated by Roscosmos as much as possible to date. The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely,” Stevens said.

According to NASA, the Zvezda service module is 43 feet long and contains living quarters, life support systems, communications systems, electrical power distribution systems, data processing systems, flight control systems, and propulsion systems.

Stevens continued, “The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely. NASA and Roscosmos have been working to determine the root cause of the cracks, and Roscosmos manages the issue through operational mitigation measures and periodic partial-repair efforts.”

Out of caution, NASA ordered all four SpaceX Crew-12 members, along with NASA astronaut Chris Williams, to be on high alert inside Dragon during the repair.

NASA said it continues to work with Roscosmos and other station partners toward a more permanent fix for the long-running issue.

Reuters cited a senior NASA official who said the air leak has been monitored over the last few months but significantly worsened earlier this week, increasing from a loss of one pound of air per day to two pounds per day.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 11:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/stkDwuS Tyler Durden