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With mortgage rates re-accelerating, the housing market faces another (worsening) affordability crisis – all since The Fed cut rates – and just to add some more pain to that, S&P CoreLogic’s Case Shiller data for August (released today) shows home prices in the top 20 cities in America rising 0.35% MoM (hotter than the 0.20% expected). However, despite the beat, home prices rose just 5.2% YoY (down from 5.93% in July) and the fifth straight monthly slowdown in the YoY growth…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest YoY growth since September 2023… but we note that home prices remain near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The pace of home price appreciation continues to track bank reserves at The Fed (lower on a lag)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, the funniest thing is that as price appreciation actually begins to slow (a good thing for affordability at the margin), The Fed has slashed interest-rates (which one would expect will juice home prices once again?).

But despitye the initial drop in mortgage rates, they have soared recently back above 7.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Will The Fed ignite another houosing bubble and re-heat CPI in an Arthur-Burns-esque 1970s redux?

As inflation remains painfully high for American consumers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is woefully inadequate in terms of reflecting reality.

For starters, CPI excludes several significant costs faced by households today – ranging from property taxes to soaring interest payments.

While price levels remain notably higher than before the pandemic, according to the CPI, inflation has slowed – reaching a 2.4% increase for the year ending in September. That’s only part of the picture, Bloomberg reports.

“The CPI is capturing the goods and services that you purchased for consumption, but there are things that affect your cost of living that are outside of that,” explains Steve Reed, a BLS economist. For instance, interest charges on rising consumer debt are largely absent from the CPI. Roughly $628 billion in revolving credit card debt now bears an average interest rate of about 22%, yet these costs aren’t reflected in consumer inflation data.

“It’s one thing that’s definitely impacting the way people spend money,” said Pete Earle, economist at the American Institute for Economic Research and creator of the everyday price index that aims to track daily purchases that can’t be easily avoided. “It’s not really inflation, but it’s definitely something that should be taken into account.”

Another gap in the CPI is its exclusion of property-related expenses. While it measures the cost of personal property insurance, it overlooks the cost of insuring the physical home – a critical oversight as climate-related risks drive premiums higher. According to Bloomberg analyst Andrew John Stevenson, omitting this from the CPI means that rising insurance premiums are only partially reflected in the overall inflation data.

The CPI’s “basket” also leaves out several items that have become significant in Americans’ budgets, including restaurant tips. Similarly, legal but selectively regulated goods, such as marijuana in some states, and gambling expenses remain unaccounted for. This reality adds to the perception that official inflation metrics don’t fully capture the true cost of living for many Americans.

The BLS admits that CPI falls short, writing on its website: “The CPI does not necessarily measure your own experience with price change,” adding “A national average reflects millions of individual price experiences; it seldom mirrors a particular consumer’s experience.”

The pricing challenges aren’t unique to the CPI. For example, the personal consumption expenditures price index, produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, also has some quirks when it comes to measuring certain expenses like health care. While the Fed prefers the PCE gauge, White House economists say that the CPI tends to more closely track consumers’ actual out-of-pocket spending. -Bloomberg

While inflation may appear to be abating on paper, Americans’ financial reality is more complex – influenced by costs that extend beyond the basket of goods traditionally tracked by federal data.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.

Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial.

Seasonality and Breakout Patterns

As discussed recently, Seasonality is a crucial key market trend in November. Historically, the stock market transitions from the weaker summer months into a stronger end-of-year rally, often dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally,” beginning mid-December. On a rolling 6-month basis, November to April has both the highest percentage returns and the highest hit rate at 77%.

The seasonal trend is reinforced by the weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) signal crossing into bullish territory, hinting at upward momentum through the year-end. The previous two seasonal “buy signals” have worked well for investors. However, that signal does not preclude a short-term correction to moving average support levels.

As noted in that previous article, the return of corporate share buybacks will be an important support to the market, adding nearly $6 billion daily to large-cap purchases.

Sectors to Watch: Tech and Industrials Lead

With interest rates declining, cyclical sectors—like industrials and technology—are gaining strength. Large-cap tech companies, particularly the “Magnificent 7,” are all holding above critical moving averages. Despite more bearish investors suggesting the “AI” trade is done, the price action continues to suggest strong institutional participation, which could drive the Nasdaq higher into year-end. Such is particularly the case given that hedge funds remain significantly underweight U.S. equities versus the benchmark. On a risk-adjusted return basis, we are already seeing them increase exposure to “catch up” on performance into year-end.

Notably, these stocks generate all estimated earnings growth for the S&P 500 index.

Meanwhile, the industrial and materials sectors, which were consolidating from March to August, are beginning to trend higher. Such is due to expectations of a Presidential election outcome that would lead to stronger economic growth, oil and gas investments, tax cuts, and reshoring of U.S. manufacturing.

Those policies would also generate stronger domestic employment, higher wage growth, larger investments in technology, and increased loan demand from the financial sector. This is likely why we have also seen improvement in those sectors lately.

Back to seasonality, it is also notable that many of the stocks that drive the Technology and Financial sectors are also some of the largest purchasers of their shares. As that window opens into year-end, additional price support should be provided.

Volatility Rising

Of course, while the market may be betting on a certain election outcome, over the last month, the rise in the Volatility Index (VIX) signals potential unease beneath the surface. Typically, VIX declines as equities rise, reflecting lower risk sentiment. However, the current divergence suggests investors continue to hedge against an unanticipated or contested election outcome. The chart shows the $VIX index inverted against the S&P 500 index. Normally, there is a high correlation between the inverted volatility index and the market. However, the non-correlation is currently extremely elevated, suggesting professionals are hedging their portfolios against downside risk.

While not an immediate red flag, this disconnect warrants caution. Investors should monitor for potential market reversals or volatility spikes, as rising VIX amid bullish markets can indicate heightened sensitivity to external shocks. However, if the election passes as anticipated, the reversal of volatility hedges could also provide an additional tailwind for equities into year-end.

The key point for investors is to be aware of short-term risks in the market despite a stronger bullish view into year-end. Therefore, continue to adjust strategies to incorporate volatility-based stops or other hedges to manage risks effectively.

Momentum Indicators: Negative Divergences

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator offer mixed signals on the broad market. While the broad market remains bullish, holding above key moving averages, relative strength and momentum show a negative divergence.

These negative divergences have often preceded short to intermediate-term corrective market actions. At this point, investors tend to make two mistakes. The first is overreacting to these technical signals, thinking a more severe correction is coming. The second is taking action too soon.

Yes, these signals often precede corrections, but there are also periods of consolidation when the market trades sideways. Secondly, reversals of overbought conditions tend to be shallow in a momentum-driven bullish market. These corrections often find support at the 20 and 50-day moving averages (DMA), but the 100 and 200-DMAs are not outside regular corrective periods.

Navigating Market Uncertainty and Upcoming Catalysts

The November outlook marks a critical period with macroeconomic and election uncertainties still in play. The Fed’s dovish tone remains encouraging for equity markets, but geopolitical risks and U.S. election developments could inject volatility. As we approach the year-end, investors must remain agile and ready to respond to sudden market shifts. Therefore, investors may want to consider several strategies:

1. Increase Equity Exposure: Large-cap stocks historically perform well during this period. You could consider increasing exposure to diversified index funds or sector ETFs that align with historical trends. If you are a stock picker, focus on large-cap, highly liquid names that generate the strongest earnings growth.
2. Review Portfolio Risk: While the MACD buy signal is a positive indicator, you should assess your portfolio’s risk tolerance and ensure it aligns with your long-term goals.
3. Rebalance Allocations: Now may be a good time to rebalance by reducing positions in riskier assets or diversifying across asset classes.
4. Use Stop-Loss Orders: To manage downside risk, consider using stop-loss orders.

While the markets remain very bullish currently, rebalancing risk may lead to short-term underperformance while the “sun is shining.” However, a steady practice of risk controls ensures you won’t be caught without an umbrella which it “begins to rain.”

“The trick to navigating markets is not trying to “time” the market to sell exactly at the top. That is impossible. Successful long-term management is understanding when “enough is enough” and being willing to take profits and protect your gains. For many stocks currently, that is the situation we are in.” – TheBullBearReport

As we head into the Mega-cap earnings reports, that advice remains relevant this week. The trick will be to navigate the outcome without making emotionally driven decisions.

Continue to follow the rules and stick to your discipline. (Read our article on “What Is RIsk” for a complete list of rules)

Futures are down small, reversing a modest overnight gain with small-caps underperforming. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1%, near session lows, while Nasdaq futures are fractionally higher on the session with Mag7 names mixed while GOOG is higher ahead of earnings and semis are seeing a slight bid despite NVDA -60bps. The yield curve is bear steepening with the 10Y yield at 4.30%; the USD is flat. In commodities, oil prices climb along with industrial and precious metals after Reuters reported China is weighing approving over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in additional borrowing in the coming years to shore up the economy and address local governments’ debt risks. WTI is up 1% near $68 a barrel while copper rises 0.9%. Today’s macro data focus will be on JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, and Housing prices. GOOG is the first of 5 of the Mag7 that report this week which may present an inflection point for the group given the reduction in exposure since the summer which has not yet been offset by recent purchases.

In premarket trading, shares of Vans and North Face owner VF Corp. surged 22% after the company reported fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ estimates. CVR Energy shares were down nearly 25% pre-bell Tuesday after the company overnight swung to a fiscal Q3 adjusted loss and posted lower net sales in addition to suspending its quarterly dividend. Here are some other notable movers:

• Lixte Biotechnology Holdings (LIXT) shares were up 62% pre-bell Tuesday, rebounding from Monday’s fall.
• Shuttle Pharmaceuticals (SHPH) stock was 55% higher after the company said that it has completed the clinical trial site enrollment for a phase 2 study of a treatment candidate for glioblastoma.
• Profire Energy (PFIE) shares were up 46% on a pending $125 million takeover by CECO Environmental (CECO).
• American Rebel Holdings (AREB) stock was 32% higher following a 1.1% gain in the previous session.
• TransMedics Group (TMDX) stock was 23% lower after the company overnight reported Q3 earnings and revenue that trailed analysts’ estimates.
• American Well (AMWL) shares were down 10% after a 5.5% gain in the previous session.

US stocks are on a bullish streak this year with the S&P 500 set to gain for a sixth straight month. With the tech behemoths driving the bulk of the rally, investors have been laser focused on earnings growth from the group (full preview here). Of note, analysts expect average profit growth for the industry to slow sharply from the second quarter.

Attention is also on the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement next week. Traders are almost fully pricing in one rate cut from the central bank, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We could be braced for some volatility over the coming days,” said Mohit Kumar, macro strategist at Jefferies, who said he’s ready to snap up assets cheapened by choppy markets.

European equities rose as positive company updates from the likes of HSBC and Adidas provided some respite in the face of growing market risks. Miners and banks outperform while travel and leisure and real estate are the biggest laggards. Basic resources lead the Stoxx 600 index higher 0.2% to 522.16 with 327 members up, 250 down and 23 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• HSBC shares gain as much as 4.9% in London after the lender reported better-than-expected earnings and announced a new $3 billion stock buyback, with Morgan Stanley describing the report as solid.
• Adidas shares gain as much as 3% after the sportswear company reported a third-quarter operating margin that came in ahead of estimates.
• Shoprite shares advance as much as 6.1%, the most since June, after the food retailer said it expects groups sales for the first-quarter to grow above 10%, exceeding Citi’s expectations.
• BP shares decline as much as 1.3% after analysts flag company’s planned revision of share buybacks next year will result in a cut in payouts.
• Santander shares dropped as much as 3.9% after the Spanish lender reported net interest income that missed estimates.
• Lufthansa shares fall as much as 3.9% after the airline company reported Ebit for the third quarter that slightly exceeded analyst estimates, though analysts note the results indicate a low-quality beat.
• Wartsila falls as much as 13% after the Finnish marine and energy industry equipment manufacturer’s third-quarter orders fell short of expectations, with fourth-quarter margin commentary also seen as negative.
• Novartis shares drop as much as 4.3%, the most in more than three months, as investors weigh the outlook for the pharmaceutical company in 2025, when generic versions of multiple drugs are expected to enter the market.
• VusionGroup slumps as much as 11%, the most in five months, with Oddo BHF highlighting weaker-than-expected third quarter results which will see the full-year more back-end loaded for the French maker of smart digital labels.
• AT&S shares fall as much as 11% after the Austrian electronics manufacturer cut its revenue forecast for the year in a move Oddo says raises questions around liquidity and the investment case.
• Clariant shares drop 7.5% after the specialty chemicals company’s 3Q sales missed due to weakness in its cyclical catalyst business.
• Straumann shares slump as much as 10%, most since April, after the Swiss maker of dental equipment delivers in line 3Q sales but analysts note weakness in the US as a worry.
• Schibsted shares fall as much as 2.8% after Polaris Media offered 3.15 million Class-B shares in the Norwegian media firm via SEB at a 5% discount to Monday’s close.

Earlier in the session, Asia-Pac stocks were mixed despite the initial tailwinds following the mostly positive handover from Wall St, with gains in the region capped and some markets were choppy owing to a lack of fresh catalysts heading into this week’s key data releases. ASX 200 was led by strength in gold stocks after the precious metal extended on advances, while sentiment was also supported by M&A activity with Myer to acquire apparel brands from Premier Investments. Nikkei 225 recouped opening losses and extended higher amid recent currency weakness and lower unemployment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the former underpinned by tech strength and as participants reflected on earnings releases, while the mainland index swung between gains and losses as EV and child-related policy initiatives were counterbalanced by frictions after the US issued final rules to curb US investments in AI, semis and other tech sectors in China.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is treading water, up 0.1%, while the yen bounced off a three-month low triggered by the failure of the ruling coalition to win a majority in parliament for the first time since 2009. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said the government will watch developments in the currency market with a heightened sense of urgency

In rates, treasuries are lower, with US 10-year yields 2bps cheaper on the day at about 4.30%, outperforming bunds in the sector by 1.5bp, gilts by around 1bp. German bonds underperform as 10-year borrowing costs add 4 bps. Losses were pared after a 10-year note futures block trade, apparently initiated by buyer. US session includes $44b 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time; Monday’s 2- and 5-year sales tailed. The compressed Treasury auction cycle concludes with $44b 7-year note at 1pm; WI yield at ~4.20% is about 53bp cheaper than September auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp with a below-average dealer allotment. Economic data slate features consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings.

In commodities, oil prices climb along with industrial metals after Reuters reported China is weighing approving over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in additional borrowing in the coming years to shore up the economy and address local governments’ debt risks. WTI is up 1% near $68 a barrel while copper rises 0.9%. Spot gold rises $6 to $2,749/oz. Bitcoin rises 2% to above $71,000.

Looking at today’s US data calendar includes, we get the September goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am), August FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home prices (9am), September JOLTS job openings and October consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of Nov. 7 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,863.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 521.69
• MXAP up 0.1% to 187.29
• MXAPJ down 0.2% to 598.59
• Nikkei up 0.8% to 38,903.68
• Topix up 0.9% to 2,682.02
• Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 20,701.14
• Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,286.41
• Sensex little changed at 80,015.24
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,249.24
• Kospi up 0.2% to 2,617.80
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.32%
• Euro little changed at $1.0817
• Brent Futures up 0.5% to $71.80/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,749.90
• US Dollar Index little changed at 104.28

Top Overnight News

• US economic data will be a mess in the coming weeks due to the Boeing strike and recent hurricanes, creating complications for the Fed as it proceeds with its easing agenda. WSJ  
• China could approve at its upcoming NPC meeting the issuance of an extra $1.4T in debt over the next few years to bolster the economy (and the number might rise if Trump wins the US election). RTRS
• The number of China’s dollar billionaires has fallen by more than a third in the past three years, according to a “rich list” compiled by research group Hurun, as government crackdowns, weakness in parts of the economy and depressed equity markets take their toll. FT
• China’s power demand will grow faster than anticipated this year due to heat waves and the government’s stimulus initiatives. RTRS
• Apple iPhone exports from India jump as the company shifts its supply chain away from China. BBG   
• Japan opposition politician, who could play a critical role in forming the next gov’t, says the BOJ should proceed with tightening at a more cautious pace. RTRS
• HSBC’s bonus pool is on course to match last year’s decade high of about $3.8 billion. Shares gained after earnings beat and the bank announced a new $3 billion buyback plan. CEO Georges Elhedery said there’s no plan to break up the group. BBG
• Buyers of top-rated CMBS are suffering losses for the first time since the financial crisis. The pain is most acute in a new breed called SASBs, with creditors in office deals from New York to LA set to get only a portion of their investment back. BBG
• Citadel’s Ken Griffin said markets expect Donald Trump to win the US election, though the race is “almost a coin toss.” BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the initial tailwinds following the mostly positive handover from Wall St, with gains in the region capped and some markets were choppy owing to a lack of fresh catalysts heading into this week’s key data releases. ASX 200 was led by strength in gold stocks after the precious metal extended on advances, while sentiment was also supported by M&A activity with Myer to acquire apparel brands from Premier Investments. Nikkei 225 recouped opening losses and extended higher amid recent currency weakness and lower unemployment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the former underpinned by tech strength and as participants reflected on earnings releases, while the mainland index swung between gains and losses as EV and child-related policy initiatives were counterbalanced by frictions after the US issued final rules to curb US investments in AI, semis and other tech sectors in China.

Top Asian News

• China’s legislative body is considering approving a fresh fiscal package which could be worth over CNY 10tln , via Reuters citing sources. Would include proceeds worth CNY 6tln to address local governments debt risk and up to CNY 4tln to acquire idle land. CNY 10tln to be raised through local government bonds and special treasuries. May announce stronger fiscal package if Trump wins November 5th election.
• China’s MOFCOM says it will continue imposing anti-importing duties on imported ethanolamine from the US, Saudi Arabia & others for an additional five years
• Japanese PM Ishiba is said to seek a partial coalition with the DPP. In relevant news, Japanese DPP head Tamaki said they will push the government towards policies that increase take-home pay and want to enact at least one or two of their policies, while he favours an extra budget to respond to the aftermath of the Noto earthquake. Tamaki said they have not heard from the LDP about a partial coalition and are exchanging information with the LDP, CDP and Ishin, while he waits for the LDP response on a possible coalition but declined to join the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition and does not understand what a partial coalition would mean. Furthermore, Tamaki said the BoJ should avoid big policy change for now with real wages at a standstill and can review monetary policy if there is certainty that wage growth will exceed 4% at next year’s wage negotiations, according to Reuters and Nikkei.
• UK is reportedly open to restarting China trade talks, according to POLITICO.
• Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa says he is closely monitoring currency moves; notes that a weak yen can have various impacts on the economy. Says “Weak yen could push down income and private consumption if wages have not grown enough”

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) initially opened entirely in the green, but sentiment gradually withered as the morning progressed; however, following reports that China’s legislative body is considering approving a fresh fiscal package which could be worth over CNY 10tln, indices managed to pull back off lows and back towards best levels. European sectors are slightly positive; Basic Resources is the clear outperformer with base metals prices lifting from lows, following the aforementioned China stimulus reports. Banks takes second spot, propped up by post-earning strength in HSBC. Travel &
Leisure is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by losses in Lufthansa, whilst Healthcare is weighed on by post-earning weakness in Novartis. European earnings included: Novartis (mixed, raised FY24 guidance), BP

Top European News

• ECB’s De Guindos says “we will keep all options open at the forthcoming meeting”; is confident that the ECB will be able to reach the 2% target in the course of 2025.
• Germany’s DHK says the economy is expected to contract 0.2% in 2024 (prev. view 0.00%), economy seen stagnating in 2025

FX

• USD is broadly steady vs. peers but ultimately still supported into the upcoming US election; today’s docket includes, JOLTS, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories & Consumer Confidence. DXY is currently within yesterday’s 104.11-57 range.
• EUR is slightly edging out the USD and gaining a firmer footing on a 1.08 handle in quiet newsflow, but ahead of GDP Wednesday and
• CPI on Thursday. EUR/USD is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.0782-1.0827 parameters.
• GBP is trivially higher vs. the USD ahead of tomorrow’s widely-anticipated UK budget which is expected to be net expansionary,
• however, lead to increased taxation at an individual level. For now, Cable is tucked within Monday’s 1.2940-1.3001 range.
• JPY is steady vs. the USD with USD/JPY tucked within Mondays’s 152.21-153.88 range. The direction of travel for the pair appears to
• remain to the upside.
• Antipodeans are both steady vs. the USD after initially lagging peers early doors. AUD/USD has been granted some reprieve by
• stimulus headlines out of China with the pair picking up from a 0.6559 session low. NZD/USD was also boosted by the Chinese news

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are in the green ; upside could be attributed to a paring of recent losses, geopolitical developments which have focused on reports that Israel is considering reshuffling its hostage negotiation team and reports of a fresh Chinese fiscal package. As it stands, Brent Jan’25 sits just under USD 71.50/bbl.
• Spot gold began the European morning on a firmer footing and saw some modest upside following the aforementioned stimulus reports. XAU at a USD 2757/oz peak and is yet to nudge higher to a test of the USD 2758.49/oz record high.
• Base metals are bolstered by the stimulus reports around China. Reporting which has seen HG Copper climb from USD 4.34 to over 4.42 while 3M LME is above USD 9.65k, surpassing Monday’s 9.6k peak.
• US DoE announced a new solicitation for up to 3mln bbls of oil for delivery to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from April 2025 through to May 2025.
• Saudi Energy Minister says he is committed to maintaining 12.3mln bpd of crude capacity.
• BP (BP/ LN) CEO says global oil demand growth is a little below avg in 2024 and 2025 because of China; will return to normal levels when China introduces stimulus.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran plans to raise its military budget by 200%, according to Iranian state TV.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu is currently focussed on finding any possible solution which could result in a deal, via AJ Breaking; looking into possible changes to the hostage negotiating team.
• “Lebanese source to Sky News Arabia: There is no truth to all the information reported by Yedioth Ahronoth regarding the proposal for a settlement in Lebanon”, via Sky News Arabia.
• Hezbollah names deputy head Naim Qassem as successor to slain chief Nasrallah, according to AFP.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said they have not received an offer to release 4 hostages in exchange for a 48-hour ceasefire in Gaza,
• according to Asharq News.
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said the Israeli forces’ targeting of Iranian radars and air defence systems will help Israel if it decides to launch a new attack on Iran. Furthermore, he stated the recent Israeli attack led to a change in the balance of power
• with Iran and that Iran is no longer able to produce weapons and defend itself as in the past.
• Iranian representative to the UN Security Council said Israel and its US backer bear responsibility for the dangerous escalation in the region and most of the bombs that Israel drops on civilians are made by the United States. Iran’s envoy added the US government is complicit in the Israeli aggression and will be punished for its action, while they reserve the right to respond to Israeli aggression at a time of their choosing.
• Yedioth Ahronoth reported ongoing talks for a settlement in Lebanon are at an advanced stage with US envoy Hochstein leading these efforts and plans to visit Israel and Lebanon. Western sources said Hezbollah agreed to separate the Lebanon file from Gaza and Hezbollah got the green light from Iran to retreat to northern Litani, while the new proposal includes the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south and begins with a 60-day cessation of hostilities by Israel and Hezbollah, according to Sky News Arabia.
• CIA Director floated a 28-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in Doha, according to Axios. It was also reported that the CIA Director and Qatari PM are starting to develop the idea of a partial agreement in the Gaza Strip, while Israel agreed to a temporary ceasefire, but Hamas wants a halt that leads to irreversible Israeli steps, according to Axios and Al Jazeera.
• Israel’s parliament passed a bill to ban the UNRWA from operating inside of Israel.
• UN Secretary-General Guterres said if Israel’s laws on UNRWA are implemented, it could have devastating consequences for Palestine refugees in occupied Palestinian territory which is unacceptable, while he added there is no alternative to the UNRWA and it is indispensable.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea is ready for another military satellite launch thanks to Russia’s technological support, according to Yonhap citing South Korea’s spy agency. Furthermore, the report noted that North Korea sent 4,000 workers to Russia this year, while certain high-ranking military officials and troops deployed to Russia might move to the frontline.
• Pentagon reportedly suffers from a shortage of air defense missiles due to growing demand and fears running out of interceptor missile stockpile, while the shortage jeopardises US interests in the Pacific, according to WSJ

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Sept. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • Sept. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 08:30: Sept. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$96b, prior -$94.3b
• 09:00: Aug. S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 4.96%
  • S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.20%, prior 0.27%
  • S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 5.10%, prior 5.92%
• 10:00: Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 8m, prior 8.04m
• 10:00: Oct. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 99.5, prior 98.7
  • Oct. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 124.3
  • Oct. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 81.7
• 10:30: Oct. Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -2.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back from treetop climbing, zipwires over lakes, daredevil water slides, kayaking and a bolt-on trip to Woburn Safari Park. All good high wire training for the appraisal season that’s has now kicked off here at DB.

Talking of appraisals, it’s now only one week to go to the US election, with prediction, betting and financial markets increasingly leaning towards a Trump victory. Yesterday saw 10yr US yields rise +4.2bps, not helped by a pair of softer Treasury auctions, and despite an outsized -6% drop in oil prices. Elsewhere, the Trump Media and Technology Group rose +21.59% to its highest level since June and Bitcoin has traded at $71k overnight, also the highest level since June after being as low as 53k in the first week of September.

The momentum has shifted a reasonable amount over the last couple of weeks as FiveThirtyEight’s model still had Harris having a 54% probability of victory on October 15, but that’s since reversed and now Trump is a 54% probability to win. The recent Treasury sell-off also likely incorporates the increased probability of a Republican clean sweep, and potentially unconstrained fiscal power. The Republican sweep probability on Polymarket.com was at 28% as recently as October 4 but is now 48% as we type. Over 45 million people have already voted so one side probably already has some momentum, but we won’t of course know who until at least after the polls close next Tuesday night.

It’s very rare to see such a big rise in US yields on a day that oil fell as much as it did (-6.09% for Brent) after Israel’s strikes on Iran on Saturday were focused on military targets rather than any oil facilities. The fall in oil, which was the largest since August 2022, did help drive broad gains for the S&P 500 (+0.27%) with 70% of its constituents higher on the day. The index is now less than 1% away from its last all-time high on October 18. The notable exceptions from the positive mood were energy (-0.65%) and information technology (-0.07%) stocks. The latter came as the Mag-7 (-0.13%) saw a slight decline, mostly due to Tesla (-2.48%) losing some ground after its impressive gain last week. By contrast, the Russell 2000 (+1.63%) posted a solid advance, while the KBW Bank index (+2.15%) rose to its highest level since March 2022. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.41%), the CAC 40 (+0.79%) and the DAX (+0.35%) were also comfortably higher. Attention will swiftly turn to earnings now, including Alphabet due after the US close today.

The moves in Treasuries were fairly uniform across the curve with 2yr yields +3.4bps higher, leaving 2 and 10yr yields at their highest levels since August 1 and July 24, respectively. 10yr real yields (+4.2bps) also moved up to a three-month high of 1.99%. The bond move wasn’t helped by a pair of slightly soft Treasury auctions. A 2yr auction saw the highest primary dealer take-up since December, while 5yr notes were issued +1.6bps above the when issued yield with the primary dealer take up the highest since May. So some signs of investors being more price sensitive in their exposure to Treasuries. Showing how this was perhaps more of a fiscal story or supply story yesterday, rather than an inflation one, at least as a first order effect, the US 2yr inflation swap was down -3.1bps to 2.40%, and of course helped by the slump in oil.

Moreover, with expectations of looser fiscal policy, that’s led investors to keep dialling back how many rate cuts they expect from the Fed next year, and markets are now pricing in their most hawkish path since the market turmoil kicked off back in the summer. For instance, the rate priced in for the December 2025 meeting moved up to 3.54%, having been as low as 2.78% back in mid-September.

Staying with fiscal policy, the Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates were issued late in the US session. This saw borrowing estimates of $546bn for Q4 (down from the previous $565bn estimate) and $823bn for Q1 2025, both of which were somewhat smaller than our rates strategists’ expectations. So a bit better news for bonds but one that awaits a new President.

With a Trump victory increasingly being priced in by markets, this is leaving the current market dynamic in a pretty different place to 2016. Back then, Trump was widely considered the underdog across prediction models and betting markets. So given his victory came as a big shock, it was hardly surprising there was a significant market reaction, with Treasury yields surging over the days afterwards, as the 10yr yield rose by over 40bps over the next three sessions. But this time around, the impact is being increasingly priced in already, so using that 2016 playbook carries risks given the different context, as it’s difficult to believe a Trump victory would be a major surprise in the same way. On that topic, Henry put out a note yesterday thinking about how the market reaction might play out based on previous elections.

Talking of fiscal yet again, back in Europe, attention is increasingly turning towards tomorrow’s UK budget, and gilts continued to underperform their counterparts in Europe ahead of that. For instance, the 10yr gilt yield was up +2.1bps to 4.25%, and the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds bounced back to 197bps, less than 1bp from last week’s peak that was the widest spread in the last 12 months. By contrast, yields across the rest of Europe moved lower, including those on 10yr bunds (-0.5bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-1.8bps).

Overnight Asian equity markets are relatively quiet and mixed. The Nikkei (+0.64%) is rising for the second consecutive session, and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.34%) is also up. Chinese stocks are generally underperforming with the CSI (-0.60%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.65%) both in negative territory, but with the Hang Seng (+0.38%) breaking higher as we type after being as high at +1% at the open but in negative territory by lunchtime. The KOSPI and US equity futures are flat. US Treasury yields have fallen back around -1.5bps across most of the curve this morning.

Early morning data from Japan showed a fall in the unemployment rate from 2.5% to 2.4% in September, along with a slight increase in the job availability ratio to 1.24, indicating strong labour demand.

In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.20%) is recovering from a multi-month low against the dollar, trading at 152.95. Meanwhile, Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Japan Democratic Party for the People (DPP), has opposed further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following strong election results over the weekend.

To the day ahead now, and data releases in the US include the JOLTS job openings for September and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for October. Meanwhile in the UK, there’s mortgage approvals for September. Otherwise, earnings releases include Alphabet, Visa, McDonald’s and Pfizer.

Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times,

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has denied allegations that he worked illegally in the United States in the early days of his career.

An Oct. 27 report from The Washington Post alleges that Musk began his career working illegally in the U.S. for a period in 1995 while he was building a Silicon Valley startup, Zip2, which sold for about $300 million four years later.

The outlet cited company documents, former business associates, and a past CEO of the company who said investors were worried that Musk could be deported if discovered.

In a series of posts on social media, Musk denied the allegations.

Responding to a video of President Joe Biden referencing the Post’s claims, Musk said he had authorization to work in the United States.

“I was in fact allowed to work in the U.S.,” Musk said in the Oct. 27 post.

In another post, he provided more details about his immigration status. Musk says he was initially on a J-1 visa for international students to pursue academic training or research, then transitioned to an H1-B visa allowing temporary employment for specialty occupations.

“I was on a J-1 visa that transitioned to an H1-B. They know this, as they have all my records,” Musk said.

Musk was born in South Africa. At age 18, he immigrated to Canada after gaining Canadian citizenship through his Canadian-born mother. He attended Queen’s University at Kingston in Canada before transferring to the University of Pennsylvania.

Musk moved to California in 1995 to attend Stanford University but dropped out after two days and co-founded Zip2 with his brother Kimbal. He became a U.S. citizen in 2002.

The Epoch Times has contacted Elon Musk, Stanford University and the University of Pennsylvania for comment.

Authored by Mark Green via RealClearPolitics,

Upon being inaugurated, one of the responsibilities Joe Biden and Kamala Harris assumed was to keep the American homeland secure and safeguard our sovereign borders. Nearly four years later, looking at the catastrophic, unprecedented border crisis that has unfolded on their watch, can anyone say with a straight face they have fulfilled that obligation?

The answer, unequivocally, is no – and Americans are the ones paying the price.

From the beginning, Biden, Harris, and other key officials in their administration were determined to end President Donald Trump’s effective border security policies – regardless of the consequences. They also refused to enforce long-standing immigration laws that administrations of both parties have enforced.

According to a new report by my committee, the incoming Biden-Harris team was warned by current and former Department of Homeland Security law enforcement during the presidential transition of what would happen if they embarked on this path – and yet, they chose to do so anyway.

This dereliction of duty has led to disastrous outcomes in the realm of public safety. Under Biden and Harris’ leadership, our borders are wide open and ripe for exploitation, and interior enforcement has fallen off a cliff. The numbers bear this out.

Since Fiscal Year 2021, the Border Patrol has recorded more than 55,000 arrests of illegal aliens with criminal histories, compared to just around 22,000 from FY2017-2020. Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens has said that “[h]ardened criminals often hide in smuggled migrant groups.” According to one Border Patrol deputy chief patrol agent, “any crime that can be committed, we do encounter people who have committed them.”

The problem of criminal aliens is not just limited to the border. Between FY2017-2020, Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested more than 480,000 aliens with criminal convictions or pending charges on their record. By contrast, in the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, such arrests dropped to just around 165,000, despite the historic numbers of illegal aliens crossing the border. Likewise,  the Trump administration removed more than 604,000 criminal aliens from FY2017-2020, while the Biden-Harris administration only removed around 158,000 from FY2021-2023 (ICE data for FY2024 has not yet been publicly released). Additionally, removals of gang members last year were down 40% from their peak during the Trump administration.

These numbers have dropped because the Biden-Harris administration tied the hands of law enforcement. According to guidance issued by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in September 2021, ICE personnel cannot “rely on the fact of conviction … alone” in deciding whether to detain a suspected criminal alien, a statement that one federal judge ruled in 2022 “flips the presumption of detention on its head.”

It should come as no surprise, then, that ICE’s Non-Detained Docket has exploded to well over 7.4 million individuals – up from just around 3.2 million at the end of FY2020. Among these millions are nearly 650,000 aliens with criminal backgrounds, including more than 13,000 convicted murderers, 15,000 with sexual assault convictions, and more than 62,000 convicted of assault.

The consequences of this policy of non-enforcement have been deadly. One need only ask the families of Laken Riley, Rachel Morin, Jocelyn Nungaray, and many others whose lives have been taken or otherwise irrevocably shattered at the hands of those here illegally.

It is not just criminal aliens now in their communities that should keep Americans awake at night. A historic number of individuals on the terrorist watchlist (392) have been caught illegally crossing our borders since FY2021, compared to just 14 between FY2017 and 2020.

Worse still, the Biden-Harris administration has actually released at least 99 of these individuals into the interior. Last year, Mayorkas refused to answer direct questions from a member of my committee when asked if DHS has a policy to detain an illegal alien found to be on the terrorist watchlist until they are removed.

Last year, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Christopher Wray told my committee, “I think greater fidelity about who is coming into this country and how they are getting in is essential.” Unfortunately, that’s not happening under Biden and Harris. In the haunting words of one Border Patrol agent, “I wanted to get into Border Patrol and protect from terrorists. And it’s like, well, I probably let terrorists in the country.”

These numbers only reflect those the Border Patrol has managed to catch. We have no idea how many criminals or potential terrorists have been among the roughly 2 million known gotaways on Biden and Harris’ watch.

And as we learned earlier this month following the arrest of an Afghan national charged with plotting an Election Day terrorist attack in Oklahoma, insufficiently vetted noncitizens are actively plotting harm against Americans – from inside our own borders.

America simply cannot afford any more of this.

Rep. Mark E. Green, chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, represents Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.

Former President Trump sat down with Joe Rogan for a three-hour interview on Friday. Several days later, the viral interview appears to have been censored on the video-sharing platform. 

On early Tuesday morning, Rogan addressed censorship concerns by uploading the full video on X. He said, “Since there’s an issue with searching for this episode on YouTube here is the full podcast with Trump.” 

Since there’s an issue with searching for this episode on YouTube here is the full podcast with Trump pic.twitter.com/sl2GTUaWdE

— Joe Rogan (@joerogan) October 29, 2024

A quick YouTube search for Rogan’s interview with Trump does not yield results for the original video, suggesting that the platform may be suppressing it. The only way to watch the video is to go directly to Rogan’s channel.

On X, David Heinemeier Hansson, CTO of software company Basecamp, wrote, “Tried to find the Rogan/Trump interview on YouTube but no matter what I search, it’s not coming up. Would be beyond bonkers if they’re actively trying to suppress it. Must be a glitch, right?”

Tried to find the Rogan/Trump interview on YouTube but no matter what I search, it’s not coming up. Would be beyond bonkers if they’re actively trying to suppress it. Must be a glitch, right? pic.twitter.com/BvpYzZTXWY

— DHH (@dhh) October 28, 2024

Others had the same conclusion…

ELECTION INTERFERENCE: YouTube is actively suppressing the full Joe Rogan podcast with Donald Trump. It’s being COMPLETELY buried when searched.

Please share this all over and test it for yourself. Hopefully @joerogan will see this and take action as he follows me here on X. pic.twitter.com/4S6UV0egDX

— Gain of Fauci (@DschlopesIsBack) October 28, 2024

Google is 100% suppressing Rogan/Trump interview. They were doing 1M views/hour no way @WatchMojo clips with merely 400k views is first search result and the actual interview is nowhere to be found. Fucking shame @YouTube @joerogan @YouTubeCreators https://t.co/WKOtnothr4

— Alan (@bitforth) October 28, 2024

In days, the viral interview has garnered 37 million views and allowed the American people to hear the former president speak naturally without a teleprompter for three hours – and without any MSM edits. 

Rogan noted on X, “Also, for the record the Harris campaign has not passed on doing the podcast.  They offered a date for Tuesday, but I would have had to travel to her and they only wanted to do an hour.  I strongly feel the best way to do it is in the studio in Austin.  My sincere wish is to just have a nice conversation and get to know her as a human being.  I really hope we can make it happen.” 

Also, for the record the Harris campaign has not passed on doing the podcast. They offered a date for Tuesday, but I would have had to travel to her and they only wanted to do an hour. I strongly feel the best way to do it is in the studio in Austin. My sincere wish is to just…

— Joe Rogan (@joerogan) October 29, 2024

Meanwhile, if the suppression of the Rogan-Trump interview sounds wild, in MSM, there’s a complete, full-blown panic meltdown underway. 

Several major newspapers have rejected endorsing any political candidate, which has only sparked a shitstorm at The Washington Post, which for decades endorsed leftist candidates.

Jeff Bezos, the owner of WaPo, published an Op-Ed overnight explaining his decision not to endorse Harris because the paper faces “credibility concerns.” 

“Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation. Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions,” Bezos said. 

As a result, the censorship-industrial complex unleashed MSM, Media Matters, and others to go on the offensive this week as alternative news dominates.

It’s not just NYT/Media Matters: Newsguard has also been mobilized.

The entire censorship-industrial complex is in full blown meltdown https://t.co/khxyaiR9Vy pic.twitter.com/kaXROnBh7z

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 29, 2024

And Washington elites are livid as this has happened.

Overton Window Shifts Towards Liberty https://t.co/C2o0gRvVz4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 29, 2024

So, there’s still a chance Harris will join Rogan on an interview.

Is this why?

Seems like it. 

Members of both American political parties and other concerned observers have been asking for a while now, “Who’s actually running the country?”

John Richardson, via The Gatestone Institute, says some answers include:

Former President Barack Obama, who, in November 2020, said on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert:

“People would ask me, knowing what you know now, do you wish you had a third term? And I used to say, “You know what? If I could make an arrangement where I had a stand-in, a front man or front woman, and they had an earpiece in, and I was just in my basement in my sweats looking through the stuff, and then I could sort of deliver the lines, but somebody else was doing all the talking and ceremony, I’d be fine with that.”

George Soros, of whom the journalist Wayne Allen Root wrote:

“Obama take his marching orders from George Soros.”

The Chinese Communist Party, about whom Root wrote:

“[T]he real power behind the throne. The boss of bosses. The capo di tutti. China and the Chinese Communist Party. Everyone is taking orders from China and the CCP. China bribes all the politicians in America and around the world with billions in offshore bank accounts. China owns Biden and his family. China owns virtually the entire leadership of the Democratic Party — and quite a few establishment RINO Republicans, too…. It’s easy to see China is the top dog. You’d have to be blind, deaf or really dumb to not see that. Everything happening … just happens to weaken and divide America while benefiting China.”

And of course Jill Biden, who was recently asked by the president to chair a Cabinet meeting.

More often, it seems, it is a cadre of unelected bureaucrats – a faceless politburo – who uphold the law or not, according to political expediency or whim.

American author and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has called this group “a machine.”

Are “open borders” legal or not? Are immigration laws being violated or not? Are illegal aliens, then, legal or not? Are prosecutions of presidential candidates within a month of a presidential election “election interference” or not? Were the deliberate lies of former US intelligence officials to the US public about the authenticity of Hunter Biden’s laptop actionable “election interference” or not?

What we should probably be asking, as we head to November, is: “Do we really want to go on living like that?”

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Germany has reached its limit on immigration with migrant-related violent crime on the rise and resources strained, a leading law enforcement chief has claimed.

In an interview with RBB, Berlin Police Chief Barbara Slowik voiced concerns over the impact of immigration on the city and the broader nation, suggesting that the current levels of immigration are unsustainable, both financially and socially.

“I believe that a limit has been reached as to what is affordable,” she told the broadcaster.

She emphasized the need for a comprehensive societal response to address the growing number of violent incidents involving immigrants and underscored the importance of integrating immigrants into Germany’s democratic values from a young age, with programs beginning in kindergarten.

“This is important for our constitutional state and therefore for our democracy,” she added, insisting it was vital to restore law and order to help make German residents feel safer and instill public confidence back into law enforcement.

As reported by Tagesspiegel, Germany’s crime rate has risen 5.5 percent over the past year, with 5.94 million cases recorded. Notably, the increase in non-German suspects — up 17.8 percent compared to a 1 percent rise among German nationals — has prompted heightened attention to crime prevention.

These figures don’t tell the whole story, as they do not differentiate the number of perpetrators with German citizenship who have a migration background from those who are German-born. Naturalizations in Berlin have surged dramatically in 2024, more than tripling compared to last year, driven by the liberalization of German naturalization laws.

In the first eight months of this year, 28,716 foreign nationals in the city applied for German citizenship — up from 18,018 for the whole of 2023. This sharp rise is linked to a nationwide reform of the citizenship law, which now allows naturalization after just five years of residence in Germany, instead of the previous eight. In some cases, foreigners can apply after just three years.

Public schools in the German capital can no longer reimburse teachers for school trips due to budget constraints, but the local government increased its expenditure on migrant housing to €1.3 billion in the summer. https://t.co/zgKa4tZnEt

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 14, 2024

Berlin’s Interior Senator Iris Spranger recently announced intentions to expand police powers to enhance public safety. According to a spokesperson from the state interior ministry, upcoming amendments to the General Security and Order Act (ASOG) will broaden police authority, including granting officers access to biometric data, encrypted communications, and traffic data. These tools aim to improve crime prevention and address potential terrorism threats.

Additional measures under consideration include introducing electronic monitoring in high-risk cases, such as domestic violence. The proposed changes reflect a push toward using advanced technology to prevent crime more effectively.

Private security firms in Berlin are cashing in on the refugee crisis — earning millions from public contracts to secure migrant shelters. https://t.co/VQHQ6sO0Ax

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 8, 2024

Slowik also proposed the creation of a closed facility to house young migrant offenders temporarily — a proposal aimed at removing repeat juvenile offenders from environments that may foster crime and provide them with focused intervention.

However, a representative from the state interior ministry confirmed that no plans currently exist for such a facility.

Rea more here…

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

A Kamala Harris supporter provided a survival guide for leftists if Donald Trump wins the presidency, suggesting that Democrats would be rounded up and put in camps by a fascist government if they don’t keep quiet about politics.

The leftist suggested that if Trump wins, “MAGAheads” will proceed to engage in violent attacks against Americans who voted for Harris, despite the fact that this didn’t happen in 2016 and it was in fact leftists who reacted by engaging in violent riots.

“Keep your mouths shut,” asserted the leftist, advising that Democrats should hide the fact that they know anyone who is transgender, an immigrant or “left-leaning” in general.

“Anyone you don’t know that tries to talk about politics around you, you shut that shit down immediately because that is fishing for information and people they can report,” he added.

They’re already losing their minds. If you thought the reaction to 2016 was crazy, this is going to be a whole new level… pic.twitter.com/QuRuDoL8LL

— RAW EGG NATIONALIST (@Babygravy9) October 27, 2024

The Harris supporter went on to suggest that countless people, including immigrants, will need to “flee for their own safety” and that Democrats can help by not identifying them to MAGA fascists.

“Do not brag about the people you have helped, do not tell others about the people you have helped, keep your mouth shut,” he emphasized.

The leftist went on to urge that literally any subject that gets raised which is remotely related to politics should be answered with the words, “I don’t talk about politics.”

“It’s gonna hurt but that’s what’s gonna help you and others survive,” he absurdly claims, adding, “These are the ground rules for surviving a fascist government, which is 100 per cent what Donald Trump has said on camera he wants to put in place if he gets re-elected.

Donald Trump has never said such a thing on camera or anywhere else.

The leftist’s final piece of advice is for Harris supporters to buy guys and take part in firearms safety training to defend themselves and also for them to all delete their social media profiles permanently.

He concluded by saying following his advice could be the difference between “walking free and being in a camp.”

Of course, there is absolutely no evidence that a Trump administration would launch a fascist takeover of government if he is elected, outside of Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers and legacy media talking heads ludicrously fanning the flames of hysteria.

As we previously highlighted, pollster Mark Halperin warned that America would undergo its worst mental health crisis ever if Donald Trump wins the presidency.

Halperin said that the fallout would be unprecedented and sustained, suggesting that the backlash to Trump’s 2016 victory will be dwarfed by the utter deluge of cope and seethe that will unfold after November 5th.

*  *  *

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