NSA Bulk Collection of Americans' Phone Data Had "No Discernible Impact" on Preventing Terrorism, Says New Study

The national security researchers at the
Washington, D.C.-based New America Foundation have combed through
data on 225 individuals identified as posing possible terrorist
threats to the United States. The analysts sought to uncover data
that suggests that the National Security Agency’s unconstitutional
bulk collection of the phone records of essentially all Americans
significantly helped in any of those investigations.

The NAF analysts begin by pointing out after the revelations of
NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden were first published the agency’s
abettors countered by claiming that their extensive spying on
Americans had averted several terrorist attacks. As the NAF reminds
us:

President Obama defended the NSA surveillance programs during a
visit to Berlin, saying: “We know of at least 50 threats that have
been averted because of this information not just in the United
States, but, in some cases, threats here in Germany. So lives have
been saved.”  Gen. Keith Alexander, the director of the NSA,
testified before Congress that: “the information gathered from
these programs provided the U.S. government with critical leads to
help prevent over 50 potential terrorist events in more than 20
countries around the world.”  Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.),
chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,
said on the House floor in July that “54 times [the NSA programs]
stopped and thwarted terrorist attacks both here and in Europe –
saving real lives.” 

The new NAF report finds that these claims are almost entirely
specious:

Surveillance of American phone metadata has had no discernible
impact on preventing acts of terrorism and only the most marginal
of impacts on preventing terrorist-related activity, such as
fundraising for a terrorist group. Furthermore, our examination of
the role of the database of U.S. citizens’ telephone metadata in
the single plot the government uses to justify the importance of
the program – that of Basaaly Moalin, a San Diego cabdriver who in
2007 and 2008 provided $8,500 to al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s affiliate
in Somalia – calls into question the necessity of the Section 215
bulk collection program.  According to the government, the
database of American phone metadata allows intelligence authorities
to quickly circumvent the traditional burden of proof associated
with criminal warrants, thus allowing them to “connect the dots”
faster and prevent future 9/11-scale attacks. Yet in
the Moalin case, after using the NSA’s phone database to link a
number in Somalia to Moalin, the FBI waited two months to begin an
investigation and wiretap his phone. Although it’s unclear why
there was a delay between the NSA tip and the FBI wiretapping,
court documents show there was a two-month period in which the FBI
was not monitoring Moalin’s calls, despite official statements that
the bureau had Moalin’s phone number and had identified him. ,
 This undercuts the government’s theory that the database of
Americans’ telephone metadata is necessary to expedite the
investigative process, since it clearly didn’t expedite the process
in the single case the government uses to extol its
virtues. 

Additionally, a careful review of three of the key terrorism
cases the government has cited to defend NSA bulk surveillance
programs reveals that government officials have exaggerated the
role of the NSA in the cases against David Coleman Headley and
Najibullah Zazi, and the significance of the threat posed by a
notional plot to bomb the New York Stock Exchange.

Go
here to read the full report.