In tonight’s State of the Union
Address, President Obama will make
his case for requiring businesses to increase how much
they pay minimum wage workers from $7.25 to $10.10 per hour while
indexing future increases to inflation. He will also announce plans
to use an executive order to mandate federal contractors for new
government contracts pay their minimum wage workers at least $10.10
per hour.
Public opinion polls indicate that such a proposal at first
glance will be popular among the general public. For instance, a
Reason-Rupe poll found72
percent of Americans favor raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to
$10.10, while 26 percent are opposed. Support also appears to
transcend partisanship, with majorities of Republicans (53 percent)
as well as independents (72 percent) and Democrats (87 percent) in
favor.
However, once Americans consider costs, support for a minimum
wage plummets. If raising the minimum wage were to cause some
employers to lay-off or hire fewer workers, 57 percent of Americans
would oppose a minimum wage hike and 38 percent would favor.
Additionally, if a minimum wage increase were to harm jobs,
Democrats would swing 38 points, such that half would then oppose a
wage hike. Additionally majorities of independents (53 percent) and
Republicans (68 percent) would oppose raising the wage floor.
In both scenarios, the fact that Republicans are more likely to
oppose raising the minimum wage is part driven by their belief that
doing so would harm employment. Indeed, a majority (54 percent) of
Republicans believe raising the minimum wage would reduce jobs;
however, this is a view only shared by 39 percent of Americans
overall. Instead 69 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of
independents believe Congress can raise the minimum wage with no
adverse effects on employment.
While most Americans support a higher minimum wage, a majority
also don’t believe workers should expect minimum wage jobs to be
long-term positions. Instead, 61 percent view minimum wage jobs as
stepping-stones to help lower skilled or younger workers gain
skills. (It’s relevant to note here that some economists
havefound minimum wage
increases actually disincentivize higher education and training).
In contrast, a quarter primarily view minimum wage jobs as
long-term positions for established workers to support their
families.
Partisans also split on this issue, with majorities of
Republicans (77 percent) and independents (56 percent) viewing
minimum wage jobs as stepping stones compared to 50 percent of
Democrats.
Public attitudes on raising the minimum wage correlates highly
with whether Americans accept the premise that government should
set a minimum wage in the first place: 73 percent say government
should set a minimum wage and 24 percent oppose, nearly identical
to the shares supporting a wage increase. Partisan breakdowns are
also statistically identical to preferences to raise the minimum
wage. This suggests that if Americans accept the initial argument
that government should play a role in setting wage floors, then
there will be little opposition to raising the floor higher.
Nevertheless, if Americans become convinced that raising the
minimum wage will harm employment, they will push back on the
initial premise and the proposal to raise the wage.
Read more about Reason-Rupe findings on the minimum
wage here.
Nationwide telephone poll conducted Dec 4-8 2013 interviewed
1011 adults on both mobile (506) and landline (505) phones, with a
margin of error +/- 3.7%. Princeton Survey Research Associates
International executed the nationwide Reason-Rupe survey. Columns
may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Full poll results,
detailed tables, and methodology found here. Sign
up for notifications of new releases of the Reason-Rupe
poll here.
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