That Was Fast: Russia Swallows Crimea and Discovers That Empire is Expensive

Crimea isn’t exactly a massive conquest,
nor did it take much in the way of resources to pull the peninsula
back into the Russian orbit. But already, Russia is reporting the
economic indigestion that tends to follow an imperialist meal. The
expenses and uncertainties involved in biting off a piece of
another country rattled investors and sent money elsewhere. That
might not have mattered if Russia was a wealthy country that could
afford the luxury of bullying its neigbors. But it’s not, and so
Putin and company are discovering very quickly that belligerence
tends to come with sanctions more effective than the ones
politicians prattle about.

According to
Darya Korsunskaya at Reuters:

In February Russia’s gross domestic product eked out growth of
just 0.3 percent year-on-year, down from 0.7 percent in January,
Russia’s Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said.

Last year the economy grew by just 1.3 percent, far below
initial forecasts, but there had been hopes that growth would
rebound this year. Instead Russia’s economic performance is
deteriorating further as the international tensions around Ukraine
lead capital to flee Russia. …

While Russia’s economic growth slows, inflation is shooting up.
The Economy Ministry expects inflation to reach 6.9-7.0 percent in
March, up from 6.2 percent in February.

The sharp rise illustrates how a slumping rouble is feeding into
higher import prices, as both Russians and foreigners scramble to
get out of rouble investments.

Note that this has little to do with formal sanctions, according
to reports. Bureaucratic penalties, to the extent they work at all,
don’t function with the speed of scared investors getting their
money the hell out.

Empire probably doesn’t have to be universally ruinous to the
conqueror. There may be a temporary upside if you’re Roman or
medieval Spanish about it and just suck the conquests dry while
worrying little about economic ties with people who see peaceful,
predictable environments as the best hosts for their business
efforts. That might work, for a bit.

But that’s not the modern world. In a
piece for The Atlantic advocating for an American
Empire, Robert D, Kaplan concedes, “the real problem with
imperialism is not that it is evil, but rather that it is too
expensive and therefore a problematic grand strategy for a country
like the United States. Many an empire has collapsed because of the
burden of conquest.”

Russia won’t collapse over Crimea. But it will gag over the tab
for a while.