Global Warming Heat Not “Hiding” in the Deep Ocean After All

One of the leading explanations
for why the postulated rise in global average temperatures due to
man-made warming has “paused” for nearly 18 years now is that the
“missing heat” is hiding
in the deep ocean. Two new papers in Nature Climate
Change look at how much heat the oceans are supposed to have
absorbed since the 1970s. The press
release from the Jet Propulsion Lab whose researchers did much
of the
analysis notes:

The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably
since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the
mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent
years.

Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena,
California, analyzed satellite and direct ocean temperature data
from 2005 to 2013 and found the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995
meters) has not warmed measurably. Study coauthor Josh Willis of
JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change
itself.

Basically, satellite measurements between 2005 and 2013 find
that sea level has been increasing at rate of 2.78 millimeters per
year. Some 0.9 millimeters results from expansion due to warming
and 2.0 millimeters is due to additions of freshwater, e.g.,
melting glaciers. Since 2.9 millimeters is greater than the
measured increase of 2.78 millimeters, the researchers concluded
that the deep ocean is likely cooling down and thus
contracting. 

By the way, at this rate of increase sea level would rise by
about 11 inches over the next century – basically the amount of sea
level rise experienced in the 20th century. 

In any case, why do these findings not “throw suspicion” on
man-made climate change? In a
companion paper researchers cite recent data from the network
of autonomous Argo floats that measure temperatures in the upper
ocean. Combining those data with climate model simulations suggest
that upper 700 meters of the oceans have absorbed a great deal of
the extra heat resulting from anthropogenic increases in greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. The JPL press release continues: 

Landerer also is a coauthor of another paper in the same Nature
Climate Change journal issue on ocean warming in the Southern
Hemisphere from 1970 to 2005. Before Argo floats were deployed,
temperature measurements in the Southern Ocean were spotty, at
best. Using satellite measurements and climate simulations of sea
level changes around the world, the new study found the global
ocean absorbed far more heat in those 35 years than previously
thought — a whopping 24 to 58 percent more than early
estimates. 

It’s always interesting when models find discrepancies in
observational data. 

For more background, see my post, “Do
Researchers Really Know Why Global Warming Is On Pause and When It
Will End?“