The GOP’s 2016 Shadow Primary Has Already Begun

Technically, the 2016
Republican presidential primary hasn’t started yet. But for all
practical purposes, it’s already on.

One intriguing feature about the shadow primary this cycle is
that it features three potential contenders for the “moderate
establishment candidate” slot.

Today in Michigan, for example, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
offered
this hint-hint, nudge-nudge of a non-answer when asked about
his plans for 2016: “I have no idea whether I’m going to run for
office or not.” Translation: I’m totally thinking about running
for office.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is busy telling Republicans that
they need to find a candidate with, as The New York Times

describes it, “broad appeal, like himself or Jeb Bush.”
Christie reportedly warned a meeting of social conservatives this
summer that their alternative was to “pick somebody else and
lose.”

And then there’s Mitt Romney. Like Bush and Christie, he hasn’t
officially said he’s running. But people close to the former
Massachusetts governor are saying that it’s on his mind. And in a
Des Moines Register
survey last week, Romney was the only GOP candidate to beat
Hillary Clinton—who is also not technically running yet—when likely
voters in Iowa were asked who they would pick if the election were
held today.

Obviously, early polls like this have no predictive value when
it comes to the final outcome of the 2016 election. But they can
weigh on a candidate’s mind, and influence his or her decision to
get into the race.

There are plenty more potential candidates in the mix—Kentucky
Sen. Rand Paul, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz,
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sen. Marco Rubio. It’s going to be a
crowded field.

But right now, it’s especially worth paying attention to Romney,
Christie, and Bush, all of whom are vying for what is essentially
the same “slot” in the Republican line-up—the moderate
establishment favorite who wins the nod on the strength of
electability. Partly that’s because their candidacies will help
gauge the continuing strength and influence of the old-line party
establishment. And partly it’s because a fight over that slot could
unsettle the outcome of the primary in unusual ways.

The conventional wisdom, which is not perfectly accurate but
true enough, is that the Republican Party establishment usually
picks a favorite early on, puts a lot of resources into this
candidate, and that this person then typically wins the GOP nod
after the other candidates duke it out and split the remainder of
the vote. But it’s at least imaginable that if three or even just
two of this trio of establishment-friendly contenders enter the
race, then donor resources, and primary votes, could end up split,
making room for someone else—perhaps someone a little more
interesting—to end up with the nomination.