In tomorrow’s midterms, third-party candidates are shaking up
key governors races in Alaska, Florida, and Maine.
Independent and libertarian candidates have managed to peel off
both conventional Democratic and Republican voters leaving major
party candidates scrambling to appeal to the
independent-minded.
Odd things happen when third party candidates enter a
competitive race. Examining Alaska, Florida, and Maine we find tea
party favorite and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsing a
Democrat and Independent, tea party-backed candidates courting the
support of so-called establishment Republicans, Democrats
supporting a social conservative and Republicans nearly criticizing
them for doing so.
Here are the key governor races with influential third party
candidates to watch tomorrow:
Alaska
The Alaska governor’s race has taken an
unconventional turn with Democratic candidate Bryon Mallott
dropping out to the race to form a “unity ticket” with socially
conservative Independent candidate Bill Walker, Democrats then
supporting a social conservative, and Republicans
criticizing them for it.
The incumbent Republican governor Sean Parnell was the expected
front-runner until the third-party candidate teamed up with the
Democrat. Parnell has also had difficulty with voters for several
reasons. First, as governor he has run up deficits, dipped into the
state reserves, refused to accept Medicaid expansion, and some
believe he has mishandled the Alaska National Guard sexual assault
case. In addition, voters perceive Parnell to have doled out
special favors to oil and gas special interests, leading former
Republican Gov. Sarah Palin to endorse the Walker-Mallott ticket
saying Republican Parnell was “suckered” by “crony capitalists.”
The political dynamics of the race are all over the board. Along
with Sarah Palin’s endorsement, Walker-Mallott also received the
AFL-CIO’s endorsement.
Independent Bill Walker used to
be a Republican, remains socially conservative, and is a deficit
hawk promising to cut spending and raise taxes on somebody to
balance the budget. So this put Democrats in a curious position of
supporting a social conservative in order to break into Alaska’s
Republican-dominated state house. Moreover, Republicans find
themselves walking the fine line of pointing out Walker’s stances
on abortion and gay marriage to Democrats without offending
socially conservative Parnell voters.
Florida
In Florida a former and current governor are in a tight race
tomorrow, with enough irritated voters that the libertarian
candidate pulls about 7 percent of the likely vote.
Polls show former governor Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie
Crist with an average of 42 percent of the vote, incumbent
Republican Rick Scott with 41.2 percent and libertarian candidate
Adrian Wyllie with 7 percent.
Voters are disillusioned with both candidates,
perhaps because neither can claim outsider status having both
filled the office before. Moreover, both Scott and Crist are
underwater on their favorables (Scott 48 to 41, Crist 47 to 40).
Consequently, the race has considerably more undecided voters than
usual. Political Science Professor Susan MacManus
argues that ultimately voters will decide the Florida
governor’s race based not on whom they like, but whom they dislike
less.
While undecided voters and independents tend
to tilt toward Crist in this race, libertarian candidate Wyllie
pulls voters from both Crist and Scott, although
slightly more from Scott. For instance, a St. Leo University
poll
finds Crist with 43 percent, Scott with 40 percent, and Adrian
Wyllie with 8 percent. However, if no libertarian candidate were in
the race, Scott would receive a 5-point bump and Crist a 2-point
bump, tying at 45 percent each. Interestingly, while Scott
struggles with a major gender gap (35% to Crist’s 50%) men and
women are equally likely to support the libertarian (about 7%).
White and Hispanic Americans are also equally likely to support the
libertarian (9 percent). Young people (14%) are twice as likely as
those over 40 (7%) to favor Wyllie. However, with Wyllie out of the
race, most of these younger voters choose Scott over Crist.
Rick Scott was initially swept into power riding the 2010 tea
party wave, and has managed to keep grassroots conservatives only
marginally pleased with his tenure. In contrast to the several toss
up senate races, Scott has not enlisted the help of tea party
favorites like Sen. Ted Cruz and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
Instead, he has sought the support of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal,
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, indicating he’s trying to reach more
moderate voters.
Charlie Crist has sought the help of Vice President Joe Biden on
the campaign trail, and Rev. Al Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson
signaling his attempt to turn out more left-of-center voters.
Maine
Unlike most other races with third-party
candidates, Maine’s independent candidate Eliot Cutler is siphoning
off votes primarily from Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud, who is in an
extremely tight race with Republican incumbent Paul LePage. Real
Clear Politics
shows LePage with an average of 41.2 percent, Michaud with 39.8
percent, and Cutler with 12.3 percent.
Rather than having distinct issue positions, Cutler’s views tend
to align with the Democratic candidate Michaud, however he’s proven
himself a formidable campaigner and debater. Cutler is socially
liberal, supports universal health care and college education,
campaign finance reform, and repealing “outdated” regulations.
Indeed, polls have
found that on average, 64 percent of Cutler voters would pick
Michaud as their second choice, and 36 percent would pick
LaPage.
In efforts to win back some of these potential Michaud voters,
Maine Democrats have sought to point out how Cutler is not liberal
enough on public sector unions, taxes, the minimum wage, and
criticized
him for calling free college tuition a “gift.” Michaud has
brought in Democratic heavy weights, such as President Bill Clinton
as well as President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama in order to
court Cutler voters.
Without gaining serious traction in the polls, Cutler
held a press conference last week telling his supporters to
vote for someone else if they don’t think he can win. This prompted
Independent Sen. Angus King to shift his support to Democratic
candidate Michaud.
Key Takeaway
Third party candidates in tight governors races reveal that such
candidates can peel off voters from both Democratic and Republican
mainstream candidates. In the last minute scramble to pick up swing
voters and re-capture third party voters, partisan activists resort
to crossing party lines and positions in efforts to win.
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