After last week’s relatively quiet, on macro data if not central bank news, week the newsflow picks up with the usual global PMI survey to start, and end the week with the US January payrolls report.
Here is a closer look at what to expect via DB:
- We’ve got a busy day of data kicking off on Monday in Europe with the final revisions to the manufacturing PMI’s (January) for the Euro area, Germany and France. UK money supply and credit aggregates data is also due this morning. Over in the US we’ll get the December core and deflator PCE data along with personal income and spending, manufacturing PMI, construction spending and the important ISM manufacturing and prices paid.
- It’s a quieter session on Tuesday with just Euro area PPI and German unemployment data in the morning, before we get vehicle sales data and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism print in the US.
- Wednesday starts in China where we’ll get the Caixin services and composite PMI prints. We’ll also get the non-official readings for Japan before we get the final revisions for the services and composite prints for the Euro area, Germany and France along with readings for UK, Italy and Spain. Euro area retail sales is also due. Over in the US on Wednesday the ADP employment change print for last month will be closely followed for clues ahead of Friday. The ISM non-manufacturing print is the other big release along with the final services and composite PMI’s.
- The main focus during the morning session on Thursday will be on the UK where the BoE rate decision is due. Over in the US we’ll get final revisions to those soft December durable and capital goods orders data, along with initial jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, unit labour costs and December factory orders.
- The only data of note on Friday in Europe will be German factory orders. Over in the US the main event will of course be the January employment report where we’ll get payrolls, unemployment, participation rate and weekly earnings data. If that wasn’t enough we’ll also get the December trade balance and consumer credit data.
And some more detail from Goldman on what to expect:
Monday, February 1
08:30 AM Personal income, December (GS +0.3% consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%)
- Personal spending, December (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%)
- PCE price index, December (GS flat, consensus flat, last flat)
- Core PCE price index, December (GS +0.11%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%)
- PCE price index (yoy), December (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%)
- Core PCE price index (yoy), December (GS +1.42%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.33%)
We forecast personal income grew by a modest 0.3% in December. Payroll growth was strong in December, although wage growth was modest. Personal spending was probably flat in December, in line with the weak December retail sales report and some modest deceleration in services expenditures reported in last week’s Q4 GDP report. We expect core PCE prices to increase by 0.11% in December but the gain in the quarterly core PCE price series from Friday’s GDP suggests some upside risk to this forecast. The core PCE price index likely rose 1.4% over the past year with the possibility that the year over year rate rounds to 1.5%.
10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, January (GS 48.4, consensus 48.5, last 48.2)
Manufacturing surveys were mixed, with all but the Richmond Fed and Chicago PMI pointing to contracting activity. The Philly index rose by 6.7pt to -3.5 and the Chicago PMI was up 12.7pt to 55.6. The Empire State index declined (-13.2pt to -19.4), as did the Richmond Fed (-4pt to 2) and the Dallas index (-13.0pt to -34.6) while Kansas City was flat at -9. On net, our manufacturing survey tracker – which is scaled to the ISM index – rose 0.8pt to 49.2. We find that that weak net exports – probably caused by continued dollar appreciation and weak foreign demand- play the most important role in the manufacturing’s sector recent difficulties (in addition to reduced orders from the energy sector), and are likely to contribute to a contractionary read on ISM manufacturing for January.
10:00 AM Construction spending, December (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.4%)
We expect construction spending rose in December, reflecting continued strength in private residential investment. Construction spending unexpectedly declined 0.4% in November, but remains 10.5% higher over the last year.
01:00 PM Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks
Vice Chairman Fischer will discuss recent developments in the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York. We will be looking for indications about the weight Vice Chairman Fischer puts on the recent tightening in financial conditions in the outlook for monetary policy.
Tuesday, February 2
01:00 PM Kansas Fed President Esther George (FOMC voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will speak about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy in Kansas City at the Central Exchange, a group that promotes leadership development for women. President George is a voting FOMC member this year.
04:00 PM Total vehicle sales, January (GS 17.3mn, consensus 17.4mn, last 17.2mn)
Domestic vehicle sales, January (GS 14.0mn, consensus 13.7mn, last 13.5mn)
Our auto analysts expect total vehicle sales to accelerate slightly from December to 17.3mn.
Wednesday, February 3
08:15 AM ADP, January (GS +185k, consensus +190k, last +257k)
Based on our understanding of how ADP filters its own proprietary data with other publicly-available information, we expect a 185k gain in ADP payroll employment in December.
10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, January (GS 55.0, consensus 55.2, last 55.8)
Among service sector surveys, the Dallas Fed index (-12.7pt to -10.4) and the Philly Fed (-21.6pt to 5.1) declined. The NY Fed increased by 2.0pt +4.0. (The New York survey is a relatively new and seasonally-not adjusted series). The Richmond Fed also rose (revenues +10pt to 10, employment flat at +18), while the Markit PMI was flat. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell by 0.8pt last month.
Thursday, February 4
08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 preliminary (GS -1.2%, consensus -2.0%, last +2.2%)
Unit labor costs, Q4 preliminary (GS +4.4%, consensus +4.0%, last +1.8%)
Nonfarm business output growth was close to flat in Q4, while hours worked likely rose at a roughly 1.2 % rate, implying a roughly 1.2% decline in productivity. Unit labor costs—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—likely rose at about 4.4%.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 30 (last 278k)
Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 23 (last 2,268k)
08:30 AM Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will speak on global economic conditions in Dallas.
10:00 AM Factory orders, December (GS -3.1%, consensus -2.8%, last -0.2%)
Factory orders likely declined markedly in December, reflecting the already-reported weak December durable goods orders.
Friday, February 5
08:30 AM Trade balance, December (GS -$43.0bn, consensus -$43.2bn, last -$42.4bn)
The new advance report on trade showed a slightly wider goods deficit in December (-$61.5bn from -$60.5bn), reflecting a widening trade balance across most sub-categories. We expect the services balance to be little changed in December. Overall, we expect the total trade deficit to be at -$43.0bn, and for the deficit to continue acting as a drag on GDP growth in the coming quarters.
8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, January (GS +190k, consensus +190k, last +292k)
- Private payroll employment, January (GS +180k, consensus +180k, last +275k)
- Average hourly earnings (mom), January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.0%)
- Average hourly earnings (yoy), January (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.5%)
- Unemployment rate, January (GS 5.0%, consensus 5.0%, last 5.0%)
Data have been broadly softer this month, including the higher claims data. In addition, we expect to see some payback from the warm weather-induced boost to payroll growth at the end of last year. We expect a December payroll gain of 190k after the strong December 292k print and an upwardly revised 252k read for November, which resulted in the firm Q4 2015 average of 284k. We also expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%, and average hourly earnings to increase 0.3%.
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Finally, in table format courtesy of SocGen:
Source: DB, GS
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1m87649 Tyler Durden