It’s here, the moment of truth.
The caucusing has begun in Iowa, the site of the first test for the bevy of candidates vying for the Republican presidential nomination and for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton who are neck and neck for the Democratic nod. Here’s a live feed for those who don’t want to miss a second of the drama:
ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos
Going into Monday evening’s proceedings, Donald Trump had surged ahead of Ted Cruz in the state for the first time since August. The latest poll from the Des Moines Register showed Trump polling at 28%, five points ahead of Cruz and 13 points ahead of Marco Rubio. The rest of the GOP field barely registered.
“A victory for Trump would give him a huge head start toward the nomination, paving the way for him to achieve the unprecedented feat of winning both the first caucus voting in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire,” the Register said on Sunday. “A second-place finish for Cruz could make his path to the nomination difficult [as] he was expected to dominate in Iowa, where fellow religious conservatives make up a bigger bloc than in many other states.”
“Donald Trump could win Iowa,” Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP strategist who the Register notes has worked on five presidential campaigns says. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one’s second choice.”
On the Democratic side the race was a dead heat between Clinton and Sanders going into Monday. The Register showed Clinton has a slight lead, but for all intents and purposes, the avowed socialist was tied with the embattled former First Lady.
“We can’t afford to make a mistake,” Clinton told some 2,500 people gathered in the gym at Des Moines’ Lincoln High School on Sunday evening. “I want you to think for a minute about what the Republican candidates are talking about as they make their final appeals. They want to rip away the progress we’ve made. They want to rip back rights that have been extended. They want to go back to trickle-down economics that wrecked our economy.”
“You know what, we’ve been burned too many times [by weak politicians]. We can’t be burned again. The stakes are too high,” Ted Cruz said, at his final rally before the caucuses.
“We will stand up to the powers that be,” Sanders said in his final message to the electorate before Monday. “And we will create a nation that fulfills the dream and the vision that we know our country can be.”
Remember, turnout is key for Sanders and Trump and so far, reports indicate that participation is set to be unusually high.
Scenes from the Drake U Dem caucus. Huge lines to register to vote. “This is chaotic,” said one caucus goer. http://pic.twitter.com/ftGetizMea
— Tamara Keith (@tamarakeithNPR) February 2, 2016
Getting ready @ a caucus site. Already a line out the door 1/2 hr be4 start. Heard this site ran out of reg cards 2 http://pic.twitter.com/I53Qd8MNbv
— Sam Sanders (@samsanders) February 2, 2016
Earlier today we showed who was ahead in the money race going into primary season. Clinton, we noted, benefited from a number of wealthy donors while Bernie Sanders – who has eschewed the super PAC – managed to haul in $34 million in Q4 on donations that averaged just $27 each.
For his part, Donald Trump essentially wrote himself a check for $11 million to spend on the campaign. His biggest expenditure: $941,000 on “Make America Great Again” hats.
Here’s a complete breakdown of the spending by candidate:
And here’s a handy FAQ guide to the caucuses from The New York Times:
Q. Cut to the chase, how will I know the results?
The Democratic and Republican parties of Iowa are promising returns in almost-real time on their respective websites: http://ift.tt/1SmF3N8 andwww.idpcaucuses.com.
Q. When do results come in?
The state Republican Party says the first returns will be in around 7:30 p.m., and it promises to have results “fully reported back in just a few hours.” The Democratic results could take longer because Democrats caucus differently.
Q. Wait, what are the differences?
Republicans declare their candidate preferences by a show of hands or by writing out a secret ballot. The Democratic process is complicated: Groups of supporters for each candidate (or undecided attendees) sit or stand together in “preference groups.”
A head count of everyone in the room is conducted. If any candidate (or the undecideds) don’t have enough supporters — in most cases, 15 percent of the caucusgoers — the group is ruled “nonviable.” Its members realign with other groups, and a final count is made.
Q. What are the Democrats thinking?
It’s a disputatious party, what can I say. The fun comes when supporters of candidates try to persuade people in nonviable groups or undecideds to join their team. There are chants, debates about policy and electability, or maybe just the offer of a beer later on. As the state party puts it: “There is a lot of debating and moving around. It is democracy in action.”
Q. Do the Republicans get to argue for their candidates?
Yes. Before voting, a supporter for each candidate can make a two-minute speech to all the caucusgoers. Anyone can speak for a candidate. That includes 11-year-old Allisyn Shelley, who will speak for Donald J. Trump in one Davenport precinct. Some candidates will even visit caucuses to speak for themselves — because Iowans may not have fully memorized every stump speech.
Q. Do you have any videos of how it works?
The parties and some campaigns have made videos to demystify a process that can be intimidating and has kept turnout abysmally low considering the number of eligible voters. See this one by the Democratic Party of Iowa, this one by Ivanka Trump on behalf of her father, and this one by members of Bernie Sanders’s Iowa field staff.
Q. Can anyone caucus?
Only registered voters who enroll as Republicans or Democrats. Voters can register for the first time at the caucus site or switch their affiliation.
Q. Doesn’t that slow things down?
It’s possible, if a wave of unregistered or unaffiliated supporters show up, especially for the two candidates drawing a lot of support from caucus newcomers, Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders. Caucusgoers sign in on arrival and register at that time. Anyone not in line by 7 p.m. Central cannot participate.
Q. How many people are at each caucus?
From as few as a dozen in some rural precincts to several hundred. John Tone, the chairman of Republican precinct 62 in Des Moines, is expecting more than 300 at his middle school caucus site, and the Democrats from precinct 62, who are also meeting at the school, expect more than 600.
Q. Pure democracy, one-person, one-vote, right?
Only for the Republicans, who report the total vote counts for each candidate. The Democrats are electing delegates to county conventions, who in turn choose delegates to a state convention.
The statewide winner on caucus night will be the candidate earning the most “state delegate equivalents,” which is reported as a percentage. That’s what you’ll see on the returns page for the Democratic Party.
Q. With all the hullabaloo that began a full year ago, Iowa must be sending lots of delegates to the national nominating conventions in July?
Of course not. It’s a tiny state, in terms of population. Democrats are electing 44 out of 4,763 delegates to their convention in Philadelphia. The Republicans are choosing 30 out of 2,472 delegates to their national convention in Cleveland.
You have a choice of how to interpret that: The caucuses are much ado about very little. Or, because these are the first votes cast, there is a lot at stake in terms of popular momentum, news media attention and donor love.
Feel free to spend the evening with “Antiques Roadshow.”
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/23Fnkns Tyler Durden