Fed Increasingly Cornered As ADP Reports Surprising Beat In Jobs

After surprisingly jumping in December, ADP’s employment report fell back to a more normal 200k ish level in January and now in Feb it rises once again to 214k (from 193k in Jan – revised down from 205k – and better than expectations of 190k). Manufacturing jobs, according to ADP remain relatively flat for the last year (down 9k in Feb – the second largest drop in 5 years), despite a collapse in ISM Manufacturing’s Employmet index. Job gains surged across all company sizes and Mark Zandi is cock-a-hoop: “America’s job machine is in high gear.”

Dear Mark Zandi, please explain this:

The numeric breakdown:

As ADP reports, Goods-producing employment rose by 5,000 jobs in February, just over a quarter of January’s upwardly revised 19,000. The construction industry added 27,000 jobs, which was slightly above January’s upwardly revised 26,000. Meanwhile, manufacturing lost 9,000 jobs, the second largest drop in five years.

Service-providing employment rose by 208,000 jobs in February, up from a downwardly revised 174,000 in January. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 59,000 jobs, up sharply from January’s downwardly revised 38,000. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 20,000, down from a downwardly revised 26,000 the previous month. The 8,000 new jobs added in financial activities were the least in that sector since August 2015.

“Large businesses showed surprisingly strong job gains in February, despite the continuation of economic trends that negatively impact big companies like turmoil in international markets and a strengthening dollar,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “The gains were mostly driven by the service sector which accounted for almost all the jobs added by large businesses.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,

“Despite the turmoil in the global financial markets, the American job machine remains in high gear. Energy and manufacturing remain blemishes on the job market, but other sectors continue to add strongly to payrolls. Full-employment is fast approaching.”

Some further detail:

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment