It has been a crazy year so far.
After what was the worst January for the stock market in recent memory, and a volatile but still difficult month for risk in February, the month of March saw a the biggest rebound from its lows in Dow Jones history, and a substantial bounce for the vast majority of risk assets with positive momentum a feature right up until month end.
So what were the best, and worst, performers in the month of March, and the first quarter? Here is the summary from Deutsche Bank:
A notable standout during March was the big surge for Oil which saw WTI rally nearly +14% during the month from the low $30s to closer to $38/bbl, helped by those rising supply cut expectations. That’s helped both EM equities (+13%) and EM bonds (+8%) deliver strong gains during the month, however in local currency terms it’s the Brazilian Bovespa (+17%) which comes out on top with the domestic political situation there clearly playing a large part also. DM equity markets have also seen a marked rebound as a dovish Fed and also the easing measures announced by the ECB having proved supportive. The S&P 500 returned +7% on a total return basis last month while there was a recovery for the Stoxx 600 (+2%) and DAX (+5%).
At the other end of the scale it’s European Banks (-1%) which prop up the bottom of the league in local currency terms, not helped by a poor last day of the month. Gold (-1%) was also down modestly but as you’ll see below the performance YTD is still impressive. Away from that the only other negative total return performers last month came in the rates space with Bunds and Gilts down between 0% and 1% in local currency terms, the relative performance for Gilts seemingly showing that Brexit concerns aren’t having too much of an impact on that asset class. Treasuries, meanwhile, were little changed on the month. Returns for credit markets were generally in the low single digit range with the lower end of the quality spectrum relatively outperforming. It’s worth highlighting the relative weakness in the Dollar last month has resulted in USD-based gains generally being greater for most assets. The Bovespa still tops the list but with a notable +31% gain, while Greek (+17%), Portuguese (+12%) and Russian (+13%) equities all edge higher up the leader board. Gains for European credit markets also look greatly improved with EUR HY (+9%), EUR IG Non-Fin’s (+6%) and EUR Fin Sub (+7%) all rebounding strongly.
With regards to the quarter, despite being flat through the first two months of the year, the massive rally in March for the Bovespa sees it rank second on a local currency (+16%) basis, and top on a USD hedged (+27%) basis. Gold (+16%) tops the former the list still with Silver (+11%) not far behind. In USD terms its Bunds (+9%) and EU sovereign bonds (+8%) which also move steadily higher up the table and into the top seven on our list. US and EUR credit markets rank close to the middle with mid-single digit returns for the quarter. At the bottom end its DM equity markets which generally dominate. European Banks (-20% local and -16% in USD terms) have failed to recover from that huge selloff in January, while the Shanghai Comp (-15% and -15%), FTSE MIB (-15% and -11%), Nikkei (-11% and -5%) and DAX (-7% and -3%) also get honourable mentions. Last month’s gain has seen the S&P 500 (+1%) nudge back into positive territory YTD.
via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1Y4hqYi Tyler Durden