Bloomberg’s ex-FX trader Richard Breslow is out with his daily dose of wisdom, and in his latest overnight note he urges fellow traders to “Try to Avoid Trading for All the Wrong Reasons”, such as what happened overnight in Syria, which he believes is a non-event, and that today’s other risk event, payrolls (as well as Trump-Xi) are far more relevant to asset prices:
“Will today’s non-farm payroll report move markets one way or another? Probably. Does the Fed’s plans for its balance sheet, whatever they might end up being, have enormous implications for assets of all stripes? You bet. Tax reform, health care and European politics are among loads of reasons for investor anxiety. Last night’s events shouldn’t be among them.”
Judging by the early rush to BTFD, he is right.
Full note below:
Try to Avoid Trading for All the Wrong Reasons
Obviously traders are nervous. We’ve been talking about it all week. But it’s unlikely that the U.S. crippling an air base from which chemical weapon atrocities were launched will be a defining moment in whether markets crack or not. In fact, I thought the initial reaction was ridiculously overdone.
There have been expressions of horror at the attacks the Syrian government carried out on helpless civilians, including children. No shortage of calls for something to be done. By people across the spectrum of political opinion. So something was done.
Be careful in extrapolating a proportional response into a therefore inevitable replay of previous Middle-East misadventures just because you’re hoping this will help your bond position go your way.
The most laughable explanation I heard for why the market reacted as it did was, “It was so sudden. Did he really think this through? Or have other motives? Is he stable?” Get a grip. You shouldn’t program your algorithms based on not liking the guy.
The same people telling me to sell S&P futures on this were arguing a few weeks ago that adverse market reactions to terrorist incidents are always a good buying opportunity.
If anything, there have been more bipartisan expressions of support than for anything the U.S. administration has done to date. So it is possible. How often do you get Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Paul Ryan and John McCain agreeing on something?
And if it leads to an actual comprehensive plan on what should be done in the region, alongside a commitment to consult Congress before any true escalation, all the better.
Will today’s non-farm payroll report move markets one way or another? Probably. Does the Fed’s plans for its balance sheet, whatever they might end up being, have enormous implications for assets of all stripes? You bet. Tax reform, health care and European politics are among loads of reasons for investor anxiety. Last night’s events shouldn’t be among them.
via http://ift.tt/2oHZqvL Tyler Durden