After numerous media appearances, Macron and Le Pen are facing each other in a TV debate tonight, which Barclays’ analyst Francois Cabau dubs “Crucial.”
According to Barclays, this debate is key for two main reasons: 1) it will allow Le Pen to clarify her views on Europe (that she has tried to soften to a large extent recently in an apparent move to attract Fillon’s voters) which are arguably a weak point on her side; and 2) it may be seen to, informally, mark the start of the campaign for the legislative elections.
Some further thoughts from Barclays:
Since the first round, there has been unclear second-round voter guidance from some of the Republicans, including Laurent Wauquiez, Interim president of the Republicans, as well as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who declined to announce how he would vote next Sunday. This has reduced clarity, and has weakened the so-called ‘Republican front’ against Front National. Despite Le Pen striking an historical alliance with another party (of the sovereignist candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignant), polls have remained largely stable, only tightening very slightly recently, pointing to a c.20pp lead for Macron – with polls having shown very good reliability in the first round.
As we have analysed in previous research reports, the French political landscape is undergoing significant structural changes, with four (possibly five) main political forces. This has been accompanied by a lack of conviction (and ultimately of participation) towards the Presidential election. Given the second round takes place during a bank holiday weekend, it will be key for candidates to mobilise voters through the debate to ensure maximum turnout (especially for Macron), which so far has been estimated to be below the first round (77%), and probably even more importantly to minimise the number of nil votes. Indeed, according to the latest Kantar Sofres poll (2 May), 58% of voter decision is driven by rejection, while the latest ipsos poll (2 May) highlights the risk of having a high share of nil votes in the second round, thus suggesting a risk of a hung Parliament at the 11-18 June parliamentary election rounds. In other words, while polls suggest that Macron remains poised to win the Presidential election, a substantial winning margin, a strong turnout, and a low number of nil votes will be necessary but may not be sufficient for his party is to follow up with a good result at the Parliamentary elections, given the lack of local presence EM has.
Extrapolating the results from the first round of the presidential election to the legislative election based on outcomes in the 577 constituencies (Opinion Way, Harris Interactive, Atlantico) suggests that the probability of a hung parliament is high: 50 to 70 deputies for FN, 40 to 60 for the Socialists, 120 to 150 for LR, 200 to 230 for EM, 15 for UDI, 20 to 50 for the far left and the rest being uncertain.
According to these projections (which are notably not based on opinion polls, in particular the personality of each local politician could have a significant influence) would suggest that even EM, the movement of Emmanuel Macron, would be short of the absolute majority (289). Therefore, based on these calculations, it looks likely that the new president will have to rely either on a coalition, or on a minority government. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron looks more likely to be in a position to avoid a ‘cohabitation’ than Marine Le Pen. Our view is that the legislative elections will likely be followed by a comprehensive reshuffling of the political landscape, triggered by the formation of a new majority.
Watch the debate live below
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