Forget the Polls. Listen to the Gamblers: New at Reason

When it comes to predicting the outcome of an election, writes John Stossel, bettors are better. Why trust a bunch of gamblers? Because they have the best track record!

Polls have flaws. Some people lie to pollsters or just give them what they think is the “proper” answer. Others won’t even talk to them. Pundits are worse. They often let their personal preferences skew their predictions.

Bettors are more accurate because of something called the “wisdom of crowds.” It turns out that an average of many people’s estimates is usually more accurate than any one person’s views.

View this article.