Month: November 2024

Jaguar Managing Director Rawdon Glover is on damage control to end the week, appearing in an interview with the Financial Times after the iconic British sports car manufacturer decided to nuke its 90-year legacy with a cringe-worthy 30-second ad published on X. 

Glover said the ad’s “intended message” had been lost in “a blaze of intolerance” on social media platforms and rejected the notion that the video was a “woke” statement. 

“If we play in the same way that everybody else does, we’ll just get drowned out. So we shouldn’t turn up like an auto brand,” Glover said.

He continued, “We need to re-establish our brand and at a completely different price point so we need to act differently. We wanted to move away from traditional automotive stereotypes.” 

Glover railed against some social media users, saying he was disappointed by “the level of vile hatred and intolerance” in the comments that appeared on the video. 

Apparently, Glover didn’t get the memo from US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez about deleting pronouns off social media pages as the toxic wokeism tide goes out. 

As for the “intended message” of the ad,” it had little to do with selling cars and everything to do with pushing wokeism. 

Perhaps whoever at Jaguar that crafted this disastrous media campaign, similar vibes with Bud Light’s Dylan Mulvaney ad…

… would have been better suited for the now-defunct far-left Kamala Harris 2024 campaign. 

Copy nothing. #Jaguar pic.twitter.com/BfVhc3l09B

— Jaguar (@Jaguar) November 19, 2024

Is this Jag’s new target audience?

One advertising executive expressed utter shock at Jag nuking nearly a century of heritage in a 30-second ad: “You can destroy a brand in 30 seconds that took a lifetime to build.” 

Watching Jaguar commit brand suicide is like watching a slow train derailment. I can’t look away. I do product planning in the automotive industry. It’s my job to know drivers (not “users”) and define product strategies based on their wants and needs. I know for a fact whatever… pic.twitter.com/7RIPaWJRhU

— Storm (@stormrobinson) November 21, 2024

Meanwhile, over at Aston Martin (take my money!!)… 

* * * 

Authored by James D. Agresti via Grabien News,

Overview

As the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics explains, “The United States uses two national data collection systems to track detailed information on homicides.” These consist of:

1. death certificates collected by the states and compiled by the CDC.
2. reports by local law enforcement agencies compiled by the states and aggregated by the FBI, which also generates estimates for agencies that don’t report.

Death certificates have always provided broader and more accurate data than the FBI’s figures, but the gap between them has grown sharply under the Biden administration. This may indicate that local law enforcement agencies, states, and/or the FBI are undercounting murders.

Furthermore, the Biden administration FBI inexplicably revised its pre-Biden murder data all the way back to 2003, elevating the counts in certain years by up to 7%. The FBI made these unprecedented alterations without so much as a footnote to inform the public.

As a result of those factors and others, the gap between murders reported by the FBI and the number of homicides recorded on death certificates has grown from a low of 16 killings in 2003 to an average of 3,711 killings per year during Biden’s presidency:

Again, all of the figures above are homicides recorded on death certificates that are not reported as murders by Biden’s FBI.

The FBI is part of the DOJ, which is under the authority of the president. The leaders of the DOJ and FBI are both appointed by the president.

Measuring Murder

In addition to being the worst crime, murder is also the most measurable one. Per the World Bank, “The intentional killing of a human being by another is the ultimate crime. Its indisputable physical consequences manifested in the form of a dead body also make it the most categorical and calculable.”

Still, there are challenges in measuring murder and significant differences between the two primary measures of homicide in the United States. In the words of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, death certificates provide “more accurate homicide trends at the national level than” FBI data because:

• the reporting of death certificates is “mandatory,” while the FBI relies on “voluntary” reports “from individual law enforcement agencies” that are “compiled monthly by state-level agencies.”
• death certificates include homicides that “occur in federal jurisdictions,” while the FBI rarely counts “homicides occurring in federal prisons, on military bases, and on Indian reservations.”
• death certificates include homicides caused by the deliberate “crashing of a motor vehicle, but this category generally accounts for less than 100 deaths per year.”

On the other hand, death certificates tend to overcount murders because they include:

• justifiable homicides by civilians acting in self-defense, which are not murders. 
• some justifiable homicides by police, even though these are supposed to be coded as “legal intervention deaths,” not as homicides. 

Despite those differences, a 2014 report by the Bureau of Justice Statistics found that “the two sources show similar trends for the rate of homicides over time at the national level,” although the count of death certificates “consistently shows a higher number and rate of homicides” at the national level than FBI data. This chart from the report illustrates the point:

Biden-Era Revisions

Each year in the fall, the FBI typically publishes crime data from the prior year and revises its data from one year before that. In 2020, for example, the FBI published new murder data for 2019 and revised its murder estimate for 2018 from 16,214 to 16,374, an increase of 160 murders, or 1%. To alert people to the change, the FBI added a footnote next to the year 2018 that says, “The crime figures have been adjusted.”

In 2023, however, the FBI revised its murder data from every prior year back to 2003. While the changes in some years were minimal, others were substantial. For example, the FBI altered its murder estimate for 2003 from 16,528 to 17,716, an increase of 1,188, or 7%.

Illuminating the rarity of those changes, the highlighted figures in the table below show all of the FBI’s revisions of murder data from 2003 to 2022 in reports published from 2004 to 2023. Note that the FBI excluded most historical data from its 2022 publication of 2021 data, which is why there are only two figures in the 2021 column:

Furthermore, the scale of the changes that the FBI published in 2023 are far greater than any in the past. Yet, the FBI only included a footnote to alert people to the change for 2021 and none of the other 18 years.

In 2024, the FBI made other murder revisions. Most significantly, it reduced the murder estimate for 2021 from 22,536 to 21,462, a decrease of 1,074, or 5%.

Prior Administrations

After discovering the Biden-era data revisions, Just Facts dug deeper by calculating the gaps between FBI murders and death certificate homicides using FBI publications issued during other presidencies. 

Just Facts’ analysis revealed that the vast bulk of gap increases materialized during the Biden administration, but there were notable trends under other presidents as well.

During the presidency of George W. Bush, the gap remained roughly level at around 9% except for 2001 because the FBI didn’t include the 9/11 terrorist attack killings in the count of murders. However, Biden’s FBI substantially increased murder counts in the earlier years of Bush’s term, making it seem like the gap between FBI murders and death certificate homicides increased from about 0% to 9% during his presidency:

During the presidency of Barack Obama, the gap increased from 10% to 13%. Other than two years, Obama’s FBI left the Bush-era murder counts unchanged. Biden’s FBI raised the murder counts in assorted years of Obamas’ term, thus reducing the gap in certain years, but the general trend remained intact:

Read the rest here…

In the wake of Thursday’s International Criminal Court (ICC) decision to issue formal arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza, the White House says it “fundamentally rejects” the move and won’t recognize it (though the US has never been a member state of the ICC).

“Let me be clear once again: whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security” President Joe Biden said in reaction, agreeing with Israel that it is “outrageous.”

But the reaction in Europe has been mixed. While all 27 member states of the EU are part of the ICC, Hungary has been most vocal in rejecting the warrants and The Hague court’s ruling, while Germany has said it is “examining” how to respond while signaling it’s unlikely to enforce it if PM Netanyahu visits the country.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Friday, “We are now of course examining exactly what that means for implementation in Germany.” According to more:

Whether German authorities would move to arrest Netanyahu or former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant, who also had a warrant issued against him, is currently “theoretical”, Baerbock said.

Germany is “bound by” the court as a country which recognizes the body and respects international law, she said.

Clearly this has put Berlin, a staunch supporter of Israel, in an awkward position. This was acknowledged when government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit was pressed by reporters over whether Germany authorities would actually carry out an arrest on the Israeli prime minister.

He replied candidly, “It’s hard for me to imagine that we would carry out arrests in Germany on this basis.”

The UK has meanwhile said it would conform to the ICC ruling, theoretically at least, as well as the following EU countries:

Despite Hungary’s resistance, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands and France have signaled that they would respect the court’s decision and potentially arrest Netanyahu if he travelled to one of their countries.

Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said Thursday that although it was “wrong” to compare Netanyahu and Gallant to Hamas, if the pair were to enter Italy, “we would have to arrest them”.

This comparison to Hamas remark is in reference to the court having simultaneously issued an arrest warrant for Mohammed Deif, the already slain head of the military wing of Hamas.

The outrageous decision by the ICC prosecutor, Karim Khan, to seek arrest warrants against the democratically elected leaders of Israel is a moral outrage of historic proportions.

It will cast an everlasting mark of shame on the international court. pic.twitter.com/NJKYv06fyE

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) May 20, 2024

* * *

Below is the full list of all the state signatories to the ICC, who are technically obliged to act on The Hague-based court’s warrants:

A

• Afghanistan
• Albania
• Andorra
• Antigua and Barbuda
• Argentina
• Armenia
• Australia
• Austria

B

• Bangladesh
• Barbados
• Belgium
• Belize
• Benin
• Bolivia
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Botswana
• Brazil
• Bulgaria
• Burkina Faso

C

• Cabo Verde
• Cambodia
• Canada
• Central African Republic
• Chad
• Chile
• Colombia
• Comoros
• Congo
• Cook Islands
• Costa Rica
• Cote d’Ivoire
• Croatia
• Cyprus
• Czech Republic

D

• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Denmark
• Djibouti
• Dominica
• Dominican Republic

E

• Ecuador
• El Salvador
• Estonia

F

• Fiji
• Finland
• France

G

• Gabon
• Gambia
• Georgia
• Germany
• Ghana
• Greece
• Grenada
• Guatemala
• Guinea
• Guyana

H

• Honduras
• Hungary

I

• Iceland
• Ireland
• Italy

J

• Japan
• Jordan

K

• Kenya
• Kiribati

L

• Latvia
• Lesotho
• Liberia
• Liechtenstein
• Lithuania
• Luxembourg

M

• Madagascar
• Malawi
• Maldives
• Mali
• Malta
• Marshall Islands
• Mauritius
• Mexico
• Mongolia
• Montenegro

N

• Namibia
• Nauru
• Netherlands
• New Zealand
• Niger
• Nigeria
• North Macedonia
• Norway

P

• Panama
• Paraguay
• Peru
• Poland
• Portugal

R

• Republic of Korea
• Republic of Moldova
• Romania

S

• Saint Kitts and Nevis
• Saint Lucia
• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
• Samoa
• San Marino
• Senegal
• Serbia
• Seychelles
• Sierra Leone
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• South Africa
• Spain
• State of Palestine
• Suriname
• Sweden
• Switzerland

T

• Tanzania
• Tajikistan
• Timor-Leste
• Trinidad and Tobago
• Tunisia

U

• Uganda
• United Kingdom
• Uruguay

V

• Vanuatu
• Venezuela

Z

• Zambia

US futures are lower but well off session lows as investors turn to other regions for better value following this month’s torrid rally in US equities, while bitcoin inched closer toward the landmark $100,000 level, trading less than a thousand dollars away from the vaunted resistance level. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures drop 0.2%, as NVDA and META fell -1.0% and -0.7%, respectively, while the rest of Mag 7 are mostly unchanged. Bond yields are 2-4bp lower and the Bloomberg Dollar index rose 0.3% to stay on course for an eighth straight week of gains as it hit a 2 year high as the EUR tumbled after another set of dismal PMI prints. In commodities, oil and base metals are lower; precious metals are higher. Today, the key focus will be global PMI releases. Expectations are for the PMI Mfg and Srvcs to print at 48.9 and 55.0, respectively, largely in line with expectations.

In premarket trading, Alphabet slipoed less than 1% after the Information reported that OpenAI is considering developing a web browser and recently struck deals to power search features for retail, travel and other websites. Gap jumped 15% after raising its full-year outlook as the apparel retailer attracts wealthier shoppers seeking value. Here are some other notable movers:

• Elastic (ESTC) soars 27% after the software company raised its full-year forecast.
• Intuit (INTU) falls 4% after the maker of the TurboTax tax preparation software provided a sales and profit outlook for the current quarter that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
• NetApp (NTAP) climbs 6% as the tech-hardware firm boosted guidance following an earnings beat.
• Ross Stores (ROST) gains 7% after the discount retailer lifted annual projections for earnings per share.

The decline in US equity futures coincided with gains in Europe and Japan. Bank of America strategists warned that the Nasdaq 100 was approaching a level versus the S&P 500 that could trigger the unwinding of the trade favoring US equities. Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 0.4% on Friday. Investors piled into US stocks this month, spurred on by expectations that Donald Trump’s economic policies to cut tax rates and support American industry will drive corporate profits higher. Over the same period, equities in Europe have been largely flat due to fears over lackluster economies and rising geopolitical tensions.

“We had a knee jerk reaction after the election when the US market went up and all others struggled,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Co. “Markets like Europe are priced for the advantage US has, so some money will be gravitating to the major laggards.”

Meanwhile, euro area PMIs dipped back into contraction in November. The bad data was good enough to push stocks higher on expectations of more ECB rate cuts, although European stocks traded off session highs with Stoxx 600 up 0.3% with banks and autos the worst-performing sectors. Healthcare and real estate shares made the biggest gains, while tech outperformed the benchmark, after investors shrugged off concerns over Nvidia’s revenue outlook. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Games Workshop shares surge as much as 16%, hitting a record high, after a short trading update showed the Warhammer tabletop game specialist delivered impressive growth in the first half that analysts expect will push up consensus estimates.
• Brenntag rises as much as 4.9% after Berenberg upgrades the chemicals firm to buy, saying there’s a good opportunity to enter the stock following 2024’s share-price declines, while consensus numbers for next year are more realistic.
• Thales shares plunged as much as 7.3% on Friday after news that the French aerospace and defense supplier is under investigation by UK and French prosecutors for suspected bribery and corruption.
• Nexans shares slide as much as 5.6% after investors offloaded shares in the cable manufacturer at a discount to Thursday’s closing price.
• Komax shares fall as much as 6.4%, hitting the lowest level since August 2013, after the Swiss machinery manufacturer deferred its medium-term targets by two years to 2030.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities rose, rebounding from two days of declines, as the tech-heavy markets of Taiwan and Korea led a rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7% before paring the gains, with TSMC providing the biggest boost. Australian stocks hit a record high, while benchmarks in Japan and India also rose. Key gauges dropped in mainland China and Hong Kong, as Baidu’s sales decline triggered a selloff in major internet names. The regional benchmark has shown resilience this week after a selloff over geopolitical tensions and China’s slowing growth pushed it down toward its 200-day moving average. Investors continue to monitor US President-elect Donald Trump’s moves as he prepares to take office. Elsewhere in Asia, Adani Group companies advanced after a $27 billion rout on Thursday following a US indictment against Gautam Adani over allegations of bribery. The company denied the allegations.

In FX, the dollar remained on track for an eighth straight weekly advance, which would be the longest streak in about 14 months. The currency has risen 2.5% so far this month, adding to October’s gains of nearly 3%, and hit a 2 year high as the euro tumbled. The euro pares a drop after tumbling to the lowest level in about two years versus the dollar on growth concerns. Money markets assign higher odds of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the ECB in December after business activity in euro area unexpectedly shrank. Pound falls 0.7% to $1.25 as UK PMI data showed private sector stagnating.

“The US dollar made another march to the upside, with some safe-haven flows likely contributed from Ukraine-Russia geopolitical developments,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia. “We may expect tensions to persist as both sides vie to gain some political leverage ahead of any upcoming negotiations under a Trump administration,” he said.

In rates, treasuries advanced across the curve, following a bigger bull-steepening move in German bonds after euro-area PMIs missed analysts’ estimates. Swaps market subsequently priced in faster and deeper ECB interest-rate cuts, placing a greater-than-50% chance of a 50bp reduction next month. US yields lower by 3bp-4bp across maturities, leaving curve spreads within 1bp of Thursday’s close. The 10-year US yield around 4.39% trails Germany’s by Bunds and gilts jump, led by shorter-dated maturities. German two-year yields fall 10 bps while the UK equivalent drops 5 bps. The US session also includes PMI readings along with University of Michigan sentiment gauge.

In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI rising to around $70 a barrel. Spot gold climbs $38 to $2,708/oz.

Bitcoin, which hit another record high, trimmed gains after earlier flirting with the $100,000 level on bets President-elect Donald Trump’s support for crypto and a looser regulatory environment will help the industry. The latest developments included SEC corrupt head Gary Gensler’s decision to step down in January. His tenure was marked by a flurry of catastrophic crypto enforcement actions, which the industry expects will peter out under Trump.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data includes November preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), November final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and November Kansas City Fed services activity (11am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 5,944.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 502.36
• MXAP up 0.2% to 182.41
• MXAPJ up 0.1% to 577.74
• Nikkei up 0.7% to 38,283.85
• Topix up 0.5% to 2,696.53
• Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 19,229.97
• Shanghai Composite down 3.1% to 3,267.19
• Sensex up 2.5% to 79,086.51
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 8,393.85
• Kospi up 0.8% to 2,501.24
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.25%
• Euro down 0.6% to $1.0409
• Brent Futures up 0.2% to $74.37/bbl
• Gold spot up 1.2% to $2,701.48
• US Dollar Index up 0.55% to 107.56

Top Overnight News

• China will attempt to boost exports further, with Beijing promising to support its firms to increase shipments despite a rising global backlash over an influx of cheap Chinese goods. Beijing will provide financial and diplomatic help for exporting companies and direct Chinese shipping firms to boost cargo capacity and bolster e-commerce. BBG
• Japan’s core national CPI for October rose 20bp Q/Q to +2.3% Y/Y, coming in a bit ahead of the Street’s +2.2% forecast and further keeping pressure on the central bank to raise its still-low interest rates. Reuters
• Taiwan says it is working on details for its president to stop in the US during an upcoming trip, a move that may escalate tensions between Washington and Beijing. BBG
• The euro dropped to its weakest level since 2022 after data showed euro-area business activity unexpectedly shrank in November. Eurozone flash PMIs for Nov are weak, with manufacturing coming in at 45.2 (down from 46 in Oct and below the Street 46) and services at 49.2 (down from 51.6 in Oct and below the Street 51.6). BBG
• UK retail sales fell short of expectations, coming in -0.9% M/M ex-fuel (vs. the Street -0.4%) while Sept was revised lower. WSJ
• Traders raised bets on a 50-bp rate cut from the ECB next month to 50% from 15% at yesterday’s close. BBG
• Apple will face even more competition in China next week after Huawei launches its new Mate 70 phone. WSJ
• President-elect Donald Trump has floated selecting the financier Kevin Warsh as his Treasury secretary with the understanding that he could later be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in 2026, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
• Efforts by U.S. antitrust regulators to break up Alphabet by forcing a sale of its Google Chrome browser and other proposals to limit its search dominance are likely to run into legal challenges on grounds the remedies are extreme. Reuters

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly sustained the momentum from Wall St where stocks ultimately gained after whipsawing on geopolitical-related headlines and amid mixed data, although pressure was seen in China after weak earnings and an underwhelming briefing from Beijing. ASX 200 rallied with energy leading the advances seen in nearly all sectors aside from tech, while sentiment was also unfazed by the contractions across Australia flash PMI figures. Nikkei 225 gained following confirmation from Japanese PM Ishiba of a JPY 39tln stimulus package, while the latest inflation data from Japan printed mostly in line with expectations and is unlikely to have any ramifications for BoJ policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with Baidu the worst performer in the Hang Seng Index following a decline in its profit and revenue, while sentiment was also not helped by the PBoC’s net liquidity drain and after comments from China’s Vice Commerce Minister on foreign trade failed to inspire.

Top Asian News

• China’s Vice Commerce Minister Wang said China’s foreign trade maintained positive momentum and a stable and sound development trend but noted that China has seen slower foreign trade growth since August. Wang said regarding Trump tariffs and the yuan that China is able to resolve and resist impacts of external shock, while he added that China will safeguard its sovereignty, safety and development benefits, as well as announced that MOFCOM will roll out policies on expanding trade of green products sometime next year.
• China’s MIIT said it is to develop policies for digital transformation in manufacturing and AI-driven new industrialisation.
• China is willing to engage in “positive dialogue” on trade with US under President-elect Trump, according to the FT citing senior officials.
• China smartphone sales +8% Y/Y in Q3, via counterpoint research

European bourses began the session entirely in the green, but sank into negative territory following the release of the French, German and then the EZ-wide PMI figures which continue to fuel anxiety related to growth within the region. European sectors opened with a strong positive bias, but following the PMI figures sectors are now mixed and display a slight defensive bias. Healthcare takes the top spot alongside Utilities, benefiting from the risk-off sentiment whilst Real Estate benefits from the relatively low yield environment. US equity futures are lower across the board in tandem with the dip in sentiment seen in Europe following the region’s poor PMI figures.

Top European News

• US President-elect Trump considers Kevin Warsh to serve as Treasury Secretary and then Fed Chair, according to WSJ.
• US President-elect Trump nominated Pam Bondi as Attorney General after Matt Gaetz withdrew himself for consideration.

FX

• USD firmer vs. all peers (ex-JPY) alongside risk aversion triggered by a dreadful set of Eurozone PMI metrics. Ahead, S&P Global PMIs are due and whilst they normally play second-fiddle to the ISMs, a strong showing from the US could see a widening of US-EZ rate differentials. DXY has been as high as 108.09 which marks a fresh YTD peak.
• A dismal set of EZ PMI metrics has acted as a drag on EUR/USD with the pair printing a fresh YTD low and slipping onto a 1.03 handle for the first time since December 2022. ECB’s Schnabel is due later (slides already released). Price action has since stabilised around the 1.0420 mark.
• JPY is steady vs. the USD following a session of outperformance yesterday. The latest Japanese inflation data provided little to spur price action as the figures printed mostly in line with expectations aside from the core reading which was slightly firmer-than-expected.
• A busy day of data for the UK has seen retail sales and PMI reports. On the latter, all three metrics fell short of expectations with the all-important services slipping to neutral territory. GBP/USD briefly slipped onto a 1.24 handle for the first time since 9th May.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly firmer USD and in the wake of losses in Chinese equities overnight. AUD/USD has slipped back onto a 0.65 handle.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1942 vs exp. 7.2502 (prev. 7.1934).
• PBoC official said they will prevent the formation of one-sided expectations on the yuan and will keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

Fixed Income

• Bunds are firmly in the green and resides just off session highs following the release of the French, German and then the EZ-wide PMI figures, which boosted the odds of a 50bps cut at the ECB’s December confab. Overall, the data leaves Bunds and OATs near highs of 133.32 and 125.52 respectively.
• Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks and printed a 93.88 trough before then climbing as participants digested the morning’s retail sales data which was softer than expected across the board. Thereafter, Gilts picked up in tandem with peers and then took another leg higher following region’s own PMI figures which were softer across the board. Action which saw Gilts spike higher from 94.58 to a 94.90 peak before fading essentially all of the move.
• USTs are firmer moving in tandem with the above thus far. Rose to a 109-25 peak on the morning’s flash PMIs from the bloc and France/Germany beforehand. For the session ahead, USTs await their own PMIs with the Fed docket very light today until Bowman after hours.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are modestly firmer on the session, though the benchmarks came under pressure on the growth/demand implications of the EZ and UK Flash PMIs and as the USD picked up. Currently at USD 70.20/bbl and USD 74.45/bbl respectively, in the green but at the lower-end of circa. USD 0.80/bbl parameters.
• Gold is in the green, benefiting from the ongoing tense geopolitical backdrop and lifting with fixed income on the dismal PMIs out of the EZ and UK. As it stands, the yellow metal is just off a USD 2707/oz best, well above Thursday’s USD 2673/oz high and at a new peak for the week.
• Base metals began the session on the backfoot and then took another leg lower in tandem with the souring risk tone spurred on by the abysmal PMI metrics from France, Germany and the EZ.
• Goldman Sachs sees upside risks to Brent prices in the short term with Brent seen rising to mid-USD 80s/bbl in 2025 H1 if Iran supply drops 1mln bpd on tighter sanctions enforcement, but sees medium-term price risks skewed to the downside given high spare capacity and estimates Brent to drop to the low USD 60s in 2026 in a 10% across-the-board tariff scenario or if OPEC supply rises through 2025.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak tells the OPEC Secretary General that they plan to develop cooperation with OPEC. Energy market is under significant pressure, incl. price fluctuations.
• Worldsteel (Oct): Global steel output 151.2mln/T, +0.4% Y/Y; China 81.9mln/T, +2.9% Y/Y.
• Oil loadings from Russia’s western ports seen falling by 100k bpd to 1.8mln bpd in Dec-Nov, according to Reuters sources.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US Envoy Hochstein leaves Israel at dawn for Washington without announcing the outcome of the talks, according to Alhadath
• Israeli Home Front announced that sirens sounded in Haifa Bay and Krayot, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli army called on residents of three towns in southern Lebanon to evacuate their homes immediately, according to Asharq News.
• IAEA’s board of governors passed a resolution ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the IAEA, while the board asked the IAEA to produce a ‘comprehensive’ report on Iran by the spring of 2025.

Geopolitics: Other

• “Fearing a Russian missile attack on the government quarter in Kyiv, all sessions at Ukraine’s parliament (Verkhovna Rada) have been cancelled for today. Politicians warned to avoid the area”, via Michael Bociurkiw on X.
• North Korean leader Kim called for developing and upgrading weaponry, as well as vowed to continue developing defence capabilities, while he said the US has ratcheted up tension and provocations while expanding nuclear-sharing alliances. Furthermore, Kim said the Korean Peninsula has never faced such risks of nuclear war as of now and that previous experience of negotiations with the US only highlighted its hostile policy, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.0, prior 55.0
  • Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 48.9, prior 48.5
  • Nov. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 54.3, prior 54.1
• 10:00: Nov. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 73.9, prior 73.0
  • Nov. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 79.0, prior 78.5
  • Nov. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 64.4, prior 64.4
  • Nov. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.7%, prior 2.6%
  • Nov. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
• 11:00: Nov. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets continued to make steady gains yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.53%) up for a 4th consecutive session, whilst Bitcoin traded above $99,000 intraday for the first time. Moreover, perceived safe havens did very well because of growing geopolitical fears, with assets like the Japanese yen, gold and German bunds all outperforming. That came after Ukraine said yesterday morning that Russia had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, although US officials later described it as an “intermediate-range ballistic missile” that was based on an ICBM model. So that added to fears about a broader escalation in hostilities, and several commodities saw a direct reaction to those developments.

In terms of the specific moves, they broadly resembled what happened during the 2022 commodity shock, albeit to a much lesser extent. For instance, European natural gas futures (+3.22%) hit a one-year high of €48.30/MWh, and are now on track for their biggest monthly gain in over a year. Oil prices rose as well, with Brent crude up +1.95% to a two-week high of $74.23/bbl. Now it’s worth bearing in mind that natural gas prices are still below their levels for the entirety of 2022, so this is hardly a repeat of that energy shock just yet. But even so, those concerns still contributed to a fresh decline in the Euro, which fell a further -0.66% against the US Dollar to $1.0474, which is its lowest closing level since October 2023.

With commodity prices moving higher, that led to a fresh bout of concern about near-term inflation. In fact, the US 2yr inflation swap was up another +1.2bps yesterday to 2.71%. That’s its highest closing level since March 2023, just before SVB’s collapse occurred and the regional bank turmoil happened. So inflation is something increasingly on investors’ minds, particularly given the prospect of new tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. That said, sovereign bonds still rallied for the most part, particularly in Europe, as the geopolitical fears also led investors to price in more ECB rate cuts. Hence, yields on 10yr bunds fell -3.3bps to a three-week low, which was echoed to a lesser degree among 10yr OATs (-0.2bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) as well.
When it came to equities, the story was generally one of consistent gains yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+0.53%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.41%) both moving higher. The gains were pretty broad-based, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually put in a very strong gain of +1.29%. Instead, the main downward pressure came from the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 slumping by -1.17%. That followed a -4.74% decline for Alphabet after the US Justice Department asked a judge to get Google to sell its Chrome browser. Separately, Nvidia (+0.53%) bounced back from a negative initial reaction to its earnings announcement overnight, and earlier in the session it even hit an all-time intraday high of $152.89.

In the meantime, investors had to digest a mixed set of labour market data from the US yesterday. On the bright side, the weekly initial jobless claims were down to 213k in the week ending November 16 (vs. 220k expected). That’s their lowest level since April, and it comes on the back of a clear declining trend in recent weeks, as the 4-week moving average also fell to its lowest since early May, at 217.75k. However, that was countered by some weakness among the continuing claims number, which was up to a three-year high of 1.908m in the week ending November 9 (vs. 1.88m expected). Overall though, investors focused on the positives, dialling back their expectations for Fed rate cuts, and pushing yields on 2yr Treasuries up +3.4bps to 4.35%. The 10yr yield (+1.2bps) also saw a modest increase to 4.42%.

Elsewhere, the search for the new US Treasury Secretary continues, and overnight it was reported by the Wall Street Journal that President-elect Trump had floated choosing former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh for the position, with the understanding that Warsh would be nominated for Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends in May 2026. The report then said that Trump was thinking of appointing Scott Bessent as head of the National Economic Council, and that Bessent could become Treasury Secretary if Warsh then became Fed Chair. While markets wait to hear who’ll lead the Treasury Department, Trump named Pam Bondi as his new nominee for Attorney General, following Matt Gaetz’s withdrawal from consideration.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a fairly mixed performance for the major equity indices. In Japan, the Nikkei (+0.95%) has posted strong gains, along with South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.85%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.85%). But Chinese equities have underperformed, with the CSI 300 (-1.51%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.58%) both losing ground. US equity futures are also pointing lower as well, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%.

Those gains in Japan have come despite some stronger-than-expected inflation data overnight. Headline CPI was at +2.3% as expected in October, falling back from +2.5%, but the core-core inflation measure was up to a 6-month high of +2.3% (vs. +2.1% expected). So front-end Japanese bond yields have moved higher overnight, with the 2yr yield up +1.1bps to 0.58%, its highest level since 2008.

Looking forward, the main data highlight today will be the November flash PMIs from around the world, which will offer an initial indication of how the economy’s performed as we move deeper into Q4. Overnight, the readings so far have been fairly subdued, with Japan’s composite PMI coming in at 49.8, so just beneath the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Australia’s composite PMI also fell back into contractionary territory at 49.4, which is its weakest reading since January.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash PMIs for November from the US and Europe, UK retail sales for October, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for November. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, Villeroy and Schnabel, along with the Fed’s Bowman.

US investor Stephen P. Lynch, who has decades of business dealings in Moscow, has reportedly asked US officials for permission to bid on the sabotaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline if it is auctioned off in a Swiss bankruptcy court, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. 

Lynch has discussed with US senators, Treasury officials, and State officials the possibility of American ownership of the sabotaged NS2 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. 

“The bottom line is this: This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era,” Lynch told the Journal. 

Lynch, who lives in South Florida and supports President-elect Donald Trump, sounds like he understands that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is highly probable in Trump’s second term. This suggests that NatGas flows from Russia to Germany could restart once again. 

Beware of sailboats operated by rogue Ukrainian special forces—Lynch is likely well aware of this risk.

New ‘Official’ Nord Stream Sabotage Narrative Says Zelensky’s Top General Went Rogue https://t.co/UVg0tByhqA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 15, 2024

It is a good question why Lynch has decided to go public about the potential ownership transfer of the 765-mile-long pipeline. 

WSJ provided more color on the situation: 

Lynch sought a license from the US Treasury Department in February, according to a letter written by his lawyers at WilmerHale and viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The license would allow him to negotiate for the pipeline with entities currently subject to US sanctions. 

The letter said there is a hard deadline in January in the Swiss bankruptcy proceeding for Nord Stream 2 to either restructure its debt—which the letter says is unlikely—or face liquidation. Lynch argues that once the war is over it will be tempting for both Russia and its former customers in Germany and Europe to turn on the pipeline, regardless of who owns it.

Lynch believes he can purchase the slightly used pipeline – with some wear and tear – for pennies on the dollar (the pipeline was once valued at around $11 billion)… 

He has told people that he thinks he can buy Nord Stream 2, which has been valued at around $11 billion, for pennies on the dollar, according to people familiar with matter. He has said many investors won’t bid because of the complex geopolitics tied to the conduit, and the other bidders are likely to include Russian proxies, Chinese entities or others at odds with US interests.

“The Biden administration and incoming Trump administration should be able to agree on this,” Lee Wolosky, a former special counsel to President Biden and a friend of Lynch, said, adding, “His background as an American investor who has navigated Russia adeptly makes him well-suited to lead the effort.”

Lynch’s potential move to control NatGas transportation to Europe looks brilliant on paper, but what will stop Western adversaries from sabotaging it afterward?

Authored by Matt Crosby via BitcoinMagazine.com,

As Bitcoin once again finds itself in price discovery mode, market watchers and enthusiasts are curious: has retail FOMO set in yet, or is the retail surge we’ve seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon? Using data from active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators, we’ll examine where the Bitcoin market currently stands and what it might signal about the near future.

Rising Interest

One of the most direct signs of retail interest is the number of new Bitcoin addresses created. Historically, sharp increases in new addresses have often marked the beginning of a bull run as new retail investors flood into the market. In recent months, however, the growth in new addresses hasn’t been as sharp as one might expect. Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day—a sign of considerable retail interest. In comparison, we now hover significantly lower, although we have recently seen a modest uptick in new addresses.

Figure 1: The number of new addresses on the Bitcoin network has begun to rise.

Google Trends also reflects this tempered interest. Although searches for “Bitcoin” have been increasing in the past month, they remain far below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. It seems that retail investors are showing a renewed curiosity but not yet the fervent excitement typical of FOMO-driven markets.

Figure 2: Google searches for ‘Bitcoin’ are also rising but are still relatively low.

Supply Shift

We are witnessing a slight transition of Bitcoin from long-term holders to newer, shorter-term holders. This shift in supply can hint at the potential start of a new market phase, where experienced holders begin taking profits and selling to newer market participants. However, the overall number of coins transferred remains relatively low, indicating that long-term holders aren’t yet parting with their Bitcoin in significant volumes.

Figure 3: Only a slight increase in bitcoin shifting hands to new holders.

Historically, during the last bull run in 2020-2021, we saw large outflows from long-term holders to newer investors, which fueled a subsequent price rally. Currently, the shift is only minor, and long-term holders seem largely unfazed by current price levels, opting to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This reluctance to sell suggests that holders are confident in further upside potential.

A Spot-Driven Rally

A key aspect of Bitcoin’s latest rally is its spot-driven nature, in contrast to previous bull runs heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has seen only minor increases, which stands in sharp contrast to prior peaks. For instance, open interest was significant before the FTX crash in 2022. A spot-driven market, without excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors are at risk of forced liquidation.

Figure 4: Open interest has been declining on a macro scale, with only a slight recent increase.

Big Holders Accumulating

Interestingly, while retail addresses haven’t increased substantially, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have been rising. Over the past few weeks, wallets with large BTC holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, amounting to billions of dollars in value. This increase signals confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin reaches all-time highs.

Figure 5: Addresses holding at least 100+ BTC is at the highest value since 2019.

In past bull cycles, we saw whales exit or decrease their positions near market peaks, a behavior we’re not seeing this time. This trend of accumulation by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests faith in the market’s long-term potential.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs has brought renewed attention, we’re not yet seeing the telltale signs of widespread retail FOMO. The subdued retail interest suggests we may be only in the beginning phase of this rally. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage remains modest, all indicators of a healthy, sustainable rally.

As we continue into this bull cycle, the market’s structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven surge remains ahead. If this retail interest materializes, it could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Has Retail Bitcoin FOMO Begun?

One of the big bearish overhangs looming over the oil market is the now conventional wisdom that as a result of accelerating supply and slowing demand, 2025 will see an oil glut potentially as large as 1million bpd, a surplus which will depress prices and prevent OPEC+ from boosting output (of course, conventional wisdom is almost always wrong, especially when it is set by the notorious politicized and wrong International Energy Agency). Yet while many oil traders share the IEA’s view that stockpiles will grow next year, there are reasons to think the expansion could be far smaller than forecast if not disappear outright.

In the last quarter, preliminary data showed that global oil inventories declined by about 1.16 million barrels a day, the agency said. That’s an issue because it’s significantly bigger than the 380,000 barrels a day reduction projected by the IEA in its balances. The gap between the two is the equivalent of Poland’s daily oil demand, and would add up to about 70 million barrels over the three-month period.

As Bloomberg’s Alex Longley writes, what happened with those missing barrels over the quarter could shape how the market looks next year. Oil bulls argue that the IEA will likely end up revising its balances to catch up with the bigger stock draws, potentially reducing the size of the surplus next year.

To be sure, this wont be the first time “missing barrels” have impacted the oil market outlook in a bearish direction. Oil forecasting has long had to wrestle with the concept of missing barrels. The IEA as well as the US Energy Information Administration and OPEC constantly benchmark their analysis with changes seen in the real world to make sure their models are reliable, which they never, and furthermore, the imbalances always tend to be in a direction that encourages lower prices.

“There is an ongoing mismatch with the missing barrels,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. “My expectation is that the demand forecasts will be revised higher, and that the agency’s balances will look less bearish.”

In its defense, and ahead of the coming adjustments, the IEA has said said that the mismatch likely reflects inventory changes in countries where data may not be available or isn’t very good.

The IEA loosened its second-quarter balance, cutting demand and increasing supply estimates, by more than 500,000 barrels a day over the following three months, to capture an increase in stockpiles for which it hadn’t previously accounted. Over that time, inventory figures were also revised up, meaning that they now effectively match the agency balance.

That said, don’t expect the discrepancy to disappear completely any time soon. Historical data revisions are commonplace. Earlier this month, the IEA cut its oil demand estimate for 2022 by 70,000 barrels a day as a result of new data from non-OECD countries in Latin America and Asia. However, now that Trump is in the White House, expect the notoriously pro-“green” and pro-Biden IEA (it is widely expected that Trump will fire IEA head Fatih Birol shortly after the inauguration) to suddenly flip its “error” in the opposite direction.

Authored by Linnea Leuken & H. Sterlin Burnett via RealClearPolitics,

When electric power was a novel idea and just beginning to be adopted in urban centers, the industry had a Wild West feel to it as multiple companies strung wires, opened power plants, and sold electricity on an unregulated market. Competition was fierce, but state and local governments concluded that the inefficiencies and redundancies endangered the public and imposed higher costs.

So states set up service territories with monopolistic or oligopolistic service providers, who were entrusted with providing reliable power and sufficient reserve for peak periods in return for being guaranteed a profit on rates proposed by the utilities but approved or set by newly established state public utility commissions (PUCs). These commissions were charged with ensuring public utilities served the general public universally within their territory, providing reliable service at reasonable rates.

Much has changed since then. Politicians began to supplant engineers to decide, based on self-interested calculations, what types of power should be favored and disfavored, and what types of appliances and modes of transportation Americans could use. As the 21st century dawned, a new consideration entered the picture: Climate change.

Under the banner of combatting global warming, utilities were at first encouraged and then coerced into adopting plans and policies aimed at achieving net zero emissions of carbon dioxide. The aim of providing reliable, affordable power – the rationale for the electric utilities’ monopolies in the first place – was supplanted by a controversial and partisan political goal. Initially, as states began to push renewable energy mandates, utilities fought back, arguing that prematurely closing reliable power plants, primarily coal-fueled, would increase energy costs, compromise grid reliability, and leave them with millions of dollars in stranded assets.

Politicians addressed those concerns with subsidies and tax credits for renewable power. In addition, they passed on the costs of the expanded grid to ratepayers and taxpayers. Effectively, elected officials and the PUCs, with a wink and a nod, indemnified utilities for power supply failures, allowing utilities to claim that aging grid infrastructure and climate change were to blame for failures rather than the increased percentage of intermittent power added to the grid at their direction.

Today, utilities have enthusiastically embraced the push for renewable (but less reliable) resources, primarily wind and solar. PUCs guarantee a high rate of return for all new power source (wind, solar, and battery) installations, which has resulted in the construction of ever more and bigger wind, solar, and battery facilities. The costlier, the more profitable – regardless of their compromised ability to provide reliable power or the cost impact on residential, commercial, and industrial ratepayers.

A new report from The Heartland Institute demonstrates the significant financial incentives from government and financiers for utilities to turn away from affordable energy sources like natural gas and coal, and even nuclear, and instead aggressively pursue wind and solar in particular. All of this is done in the name of pursuing net zero emissions, which every single major utility company in the country boasts about on their corporate reports and websites. Reliability and affordability come secondary to the decarbonization agenda.

Dominion Energy is a good example, as they are one of the most aggressive movers on climate-focused policy. Dominion CEO Robert Blue speaks excitedly about government-forced transitions to a wind- and solar-dominated grid in interviews. During one interview with a renewable energy podcast, he said:

“[S]ometimes the government needs to focus on outcomes. We’re trying to address a climate crisis, and we are going to need to move quickly to do that.” In the same interview, he expressed enthusiasm about federal policy that would achieve a government-directed transition.

And why wouldn’t he? Dominion, like most utilities, is granted government tax credits and guarantees on returns for investing in large, expensive projects like offshore wind, the most expensive source of electric power. The bigger the project, the bigger the profit with guaranteed returns.

Also, onshore wind companies have received special “take limits” from the Fish and Wildlife Service to kill protected bald eagles and golden eagles, while prosecuting oil companies if birds are injured or killed on their sites.

Net zero policies are not the environmental panacea that climate change activists proclaim.  Industrial-scale wind and solar use substantially more land than conventional energy resources, disrupting ecosystems and destroying wildlife habitats in the process.

And despite recent technological advances, wind and solar are still not dispatchable resources, meaning they cannot provide consistent power at all times needed. Refuting claims made by environmentalists and utilities that wind and solar are the cheapest sources of electric power, costs have risen steeply as the use of wind and solar has increased. Customers of Duke Energy in Kentucky, for example, are paying 78% higher rates in the wake of coal-fired plant closings.

Politicians and utilities are pushing for even more electrification for appliances and vehicles despite the fact that Federal Energy Regulatory Commission officials have repeatedly warned in recent years that adding more demand for electric power while replacing reliable power sources with intermittent renewables is destabilizing the power system. 

It appears that the utilities prioritize short-term profits over grid reliability or keeping costs reasonable – and the government officials who are supposed to keep them in check are only encouraging them. It doesn’t need to be this way. The U.S. grid was not always this way. Only in recent years, with the obsessive pursuit of net zero, have rolling black and brownouts become so common.

Today, utility companies are sending lobbyists to conservative policymakers in order to convince them that the utilities have our best interests in mind. Their track record tells another story. Meanwhile, Americans have less reliable electricity at higher costs.

Linnea Lueken (llueken@heartland.org, X: @LinneaLueken) is a research fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute. 

NATO’s most recent survey of its member country populations showed that even among those nations that are Ukraine’s biggest supporters in terms of its war effort against Russia, many constituents disagree with continued support. This has also been increasing since NATO posed the same question in its annual survey in November 2022.

You will find more infographics at Statista

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the change is most severe for Ukraine’s biggest supporter in absolute terms, the United States. In mid-2024, 32 percent of Americans said that they somewhat or strongly disagreed with continued support for Ukraine, up from just 17 percent in late 2022. President-elect Donald Trump, who in the past has said that he rejects U.S. military commitments abroad, swept to victory in the country’s election in November.

In Germany, disagreement climbed by seven percentage points to a high 37 percent. Even Eastern European countries which have been among Ukraine’s fiercest supporters and biggest donors have been witnessing high levels of disagreement among their populations, for example the Czech Republic and Estonia. The latter nation has been among Ukraine’s biggest supporters by percent of GDP given.

In Poland, among Ukraine’s top 10 donors, rejection of support only stood at 22 percent. This number was even lower in donor countries Norway and the United Kingdom.

On Thursday Moscow issued a fresh warning to the US and West, following Washington and London giving the greenlight for Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles against Russian territory, which at this point has already happened in at least two instances (separate cross-border attacks using the US ATACMS and UK Storm Shadows).

Russia has said a newly opened US missile defense base in Poland is now on a list of potential priority strike targets in the event of a bigger escalation. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that the US-NATO anti-missile base in the Polish village of Redzikowo is a threat to Russia for its “obvious potential” to inflict harm on Moscow’s deterrent forces.

She said that the opening of the base marks “yet another provocative step in a series of deeply destabilizing actions by the Americans and their allies in NATO in the strategic sphere.”

She further described it as part of the “decades-long destructive policy of bringing NATO military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders” which can lead to the “undermining of strategic stability” – which can potentially bring to the forefront an increase in “the overall level of nuclear danger.”

Given “the nature and level of threats arising from this type of Western military facilities,” she continued, the base has been added to the Russian military’s list of “priority targets for potential destruction.”

As we previewed days ago upon the base’s formal inauguration, the US launchers hosted there that fire the Aegis interceptors can also fire offensive Tomahawk missiles. Previously, the US fielded a variant of the Tomahawk that was capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. 

With the NATO and US military build-up in Eastern Europe, Moscow has long vowed that it would respond by “adopting appropriate measures to ensure parity.”

While the Aegis system has created significant friction between Russia and NATO, Warsaw wants to further expand the missile base. Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Monday the scope of the shield needed to be expanded.

Some Polish top officials have recently argued that the country’s military should be actively intercepting Russian missiles threatening Ukrainian territory, especially ones that fly close to Poland’s border in the region of Western Ukraine. Warsaw has throughout the conflict played host to a build-up of Western weapons along NATO’s ‘eastern flank’.