AP Poll Finds Public Opinion Continues to Run “Deeply Negative” on Obamacare

First, Democrats believed that Obamacare would become popular
after the initial furor surrounding the law’s passage died down. It
didn’t die down, and Democrats probably lost the House in the 2010
midterm election as a result. Then the law’s supporters argued that
once the law’s early benefits—for young adults, seniors, and
preventive care—kicked in, public opinion would take a turn. The
benefits went into effect, but public opinion stayed the same.

Finally, the law’s backers argued that once the law’s biggest
benefit, its coverage expansion, took effect, the law would start
down the road to popularity. The coverage expansion kicked in, and
for almost six months now, people have been using the coverage they
have under the law. It’s still unpopular.

An AP-GfK poll released today finds that, while premium sticker
shock is not proving a big problem for those who got coverage under
the law, many more people still oppose the law than favor it. From
the AP’s
news report:

A new
Associated Press-GfK poll finds that public opinion
continues to run deeply negative on the Affordable Care Act,
Obama’s signature effort to cover the uninsured. Forty-three
percent oppose the law, compared with just 28 percent in
support.

The poll suggests both lower support and lower opposition than
other surveys, but in terms of the gap between support and
opposition, it’s not an outlier. Here’s RCP’s
poll average for public approval of the health care law over the
last year: 

As you can see, there was a spike in opposition when the
exchanges crashed on open last fall. That effect seems to have
mostly worn off, but broadly speaking, opposition remains high and
favorability remains low.

Meanwhile, the law’s supporters are basically out of excuses to
explain why it’s not popular now but it will be in the near future.
The public has been pretty clear from the beginning that, overall,
they don’t like Obamacare. Now they’ve spent six months living with
its coverage expansion, and they still don’t. It’s of course always
possible that opposition will moderate at some point, but in the
near term at least it doesn’t seem particularly likely that it
will. The law’s benefits have kicked in, people are experiencing
the effects, and there’s no obvious potential turning point
left.