Do Libertarian Party Candidates Always Pull From Republicans?

Do
Libertarian Party candidates always pull votes from Republicans?
That’s the widespread perception among media elites. And it matters
in at least a handful of races in which the LP candidate is more
than covering the spread between the Dem and the Rep.

Here’s Chuck Todd talking about this on yesterday’s Meet The
Press:

[P]izza deliveryman turned libertarian candidate for the U.S.
Senate in North Carolina, Sean Haugh [has] got 7% of the vote in a
recent poll. Enough to possibly swing the election, siphoning votes
from Republican Thom Tillis and helping the incumbent here,
Democrat Kay Hagan. It’s actually the same story right now in
Florida, that gubernatorial race with the Libertarian Adrian
Wyllie, who’s suddenly getting double-digit support in recent polls
because people are so fed up with the negativity.

And if that happens, look at what it does to this race if this
guy stays in double digits. It really hurts the incumbent
Republican here, Rick Scott. Here’s the bottom line, folks. This is
what we’re learning. It’s an angry electorate out there, they’re
mad at both parties.

More here.

It’s easy to understand why observers presume the LP pulls from
the GOP: For a long time, both parties talked a lot about reducing
government spending and lowering taxes (not that Republicans did
that once in power). The rhetoric was similar.

But
that was then and this is now. In the 2013 race for governor of
Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe beat Republican Ken Cuccinelli
by 2 percentage points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Libertarian
Robert Sarvis pulled almost 7 percent. Exit polls showed that
Sarvis actually gave Cuccinelli
a fighting chance: “An exit poll of Sarvis voters showed that
they would have voted for McAuliffe by a two-to-one margin over
Cucinelli.”

In the special election held in Florida’s 13th congressional
district, Republican David Jolly squeaked by Democrat Alex Sink by
2 percentage points. Libertarian Lucas Overby pulled almost 5
percent and while there are no exit polls to turn to, there are
good reasons to think that Overby helped put the kibosh on
Sink:

When you look at Lucas Overby’s positions, it’s easy to see
him pulling as many or more votes from a Democrat. He is fully
supportive of cutting spending and for gun rights, but he is
equally outspoken in terms of non-interventionist foreign policy,
in favor of gay marriage, and, as mentioned, drug legalization.
There’s every reason to believe that he may well have “taken” more
votes from Sink than from Jolly.

In the 2012 presidential race, Republican muckety-mucks were
worried that Libertarian Gary Johnson could
be the spoiler. They needn’t to have worried for two reasons.
First, Mitt Romney was no damn good. And second, however you want
to apportion Johnson 1 million votes between Obama and Mittens,

they don’t change the outcome.

As Matt
Welch wrote about the
2012 election cycle, out of “482 electoral outcomes only one
[Republican loss] can be plausibly argued to have been affected by
an LP candidate.” That was “Democrat John Tierney’s 48.2%-47.2% win
over Republican Rich Tisei in a Massachusetts 6th district race
where Libertarian Daniel Fishman received 4.6% of the vote.”

So as we slide toward the midterms and pundits start yapping
about how Libertarian spoilers are always taking votes from
Republicans, it’s worth asking for some hard evidence.

Because it wasn’t true in 2012 or 2013. And it’s probably less
true now than ever. Republicans and Democrats have totally stacked
elections so they always win. They can at least take responsibility
for when they lose.