Exit Polls for Haugh, Sarvis: Who Did They “Spoil” Their Races For?

So, two Libertarian Party Senate candidates in prominent races
beat the spread between their major-party opponents. In North
Carolina, Libertarian Sean Haugh got 3.74 percent, with Republican
Thom Tillis winning with 49 percent and Democrat Kay Hagen at
47.21.

It isn’t common for Democrats to accuse Libertarians of
“spoiling” elections for them, but a look
at NBC News exit polls show that Haugh voters indeed came more
from people who consider themselves “moderate” (5 percent of
self-identified moderates went Huagh) and even “liberal” (4 percent
of liberals voted for Haugh) than from conservatives (only 2
percent of whom voted for Haugh). Those were the only three choices
for self-identification.

Only 1 percent each of self-identified Democrats or Republicans
voted Haugh, while 9 percent of Independents did. (Those again were
the only choices.)

In other exit poll results, Haugh’s portion of the vote fell
pretty steadily as age groups got older—he got 9 percent of the
18-24 vote, and only 2 percent of the 50-and-over crowd.

Haugh did strongest among white women in race/gender breakdowns,
with 5 percent of that crowd, and only 1 percent of black men or
black woman–and no polled number of Latino men or women.

Other interesting Haugh exit poll results: His overall man/woman
breakdown was the same, 4 percent of each in the exit poll. Haugh’s
numbers got progressively smaller as voter income got bigger–he
earned 6 percent ofthe under-$30K vote but only 1 percent of the
over-$200K vote. Libertarians aren’t just for plutocrats.

Interestingly, Haugh got more votes from people who want to
raise the minimum wage than from those who don’t, giving credence
to the notion that he represents a libertarianism
not that interested in economic liberty issues. He got more
votes from those against the wars in Syria and Iraq than those for
it, and only slightly more votes from pro-gay marriage types than
anti-gay marriage types–5 percent of the pros, 4 percent of the
antis.

Now for Robert Sarvis, who you can bet will be accused by some
of “costing” Republican Ed Gillespie the Senate election. Sarvis
got 2.45 percent of the vote; winning Democrat Mark Warner got 49
and Gillespie 48.48.

What can
NBC’s exit poll tell us about where Sarvis voters came
from?

Sarvis drew equally from liberals, moderates, and conservatives
according to this poll–3 percent of each.

But when it gets to party identification, he drew statistically
nothing from Democrats, 3 percent from Republicans, and 7 percent
from Independents. Independents were otherwise split evenly 47-47
between Warner and Gillespie. So, there is indeed some cause for
GOPers to think that Sarvis’ presence in the race was bad for
them.

In other Sarvis exit poll results from NBC, Sarvis did best
among Independent men, with 7 percent, and best among college
graduates, with 6 percent. In term of family income, he did best
among the under-$50K crowd, with 4 percent of those, vs. just 2
percent of the $100K or more folk. 

Sarvis did only slightly better with the antiwar crowd, getting
3 percent of them vs. 2 percent of the pro-war crowd. Sarvis got
statistically zero among members of the military, and did better
with the pro-gay-marriage crowd, getting 5 percent of the pro and
only 2 percent of the anti. He also did better with small city and
rural than suburbs or big city folk, getting 4 percent with the
former and only 2 percent with the latter.