It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that last
night’s midterm election was a referendum on President Obama.
Republicans in nearly every close race made opposition to President
Obama issue number one. Exit poll and pre-election surveys make it
clear that voters were
dissatisfied with the economy and the president’s job
performance, and they cast their votes in
protest of the president.
President Obama wasn’t on the ballot, of course, but as he
himself insisted last month, his policies were. Many of the
incumbent Democrats up for a vote had voted heavily in support of
the president’s agenda. Democrats struggled mightily to distance
themselves from Obama, but they could not escape his gravity.
To put it another way: Voters didn’t like Obama—and they took it
out on his fellow Democrats.
That has to be worrying for Hillary Clinton. Because unless
there’s a dramatic change in voter sentiments about the president,
the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee is likely to face similar
headwinds.
Clinton has not yet announced that she is running for the
Democratic nomination, but she is widely expected to run, and if
and when she does, she will be the immediate frontrunner. But
unless the political ground shifts in a way that makes the
presidential race quite favorable to Democrats, Clinton, who served
as Obama’s secretary of state, will face the same Obama-related
challenges that many Democrats faced this round.
Her history with the president and the Democratic party means
she won’t be able to run far away from the president in a way that
is plausible. And yet she also won’t be able to run aggressively on
his achievements and legacy either.
Knowing Clinton, she’ll likely attempt a tailored version of the
strategy that Democrats in close races adopted this time
around—positioning herself as separate from the president but not
actively opposed to him. She’ll highlight the parts of policies
that are widely liked, but acknowledge that many need to be fixed,
tweaked, or updated—while providing as few specifics as possible
about what those specifics should be. Indeed, to some extent, this
is already the approach that Clinton has taken, vaguely moving away
from Obama in ways designed to cause as little real friction as
possible. She’ll be neither with Obama nor against him, emphasizing
distance but not disagreement.
That awkward, fence-straddling approach led to some
slightly ridiculous moments, and ultimately failed to work for
Democrats in this year’s midterm. It’s not likely to work for
Clinton (or any other Democratic nominee) in 2016 either.
Yes, President Obama’s approval could change, but that would
probably require the White House to change first. Don’t expect that
to happen. Despite the GOP tide, the administration has
already dropped hints that it won’t be making major adjustments
to its approach.
In two years, of course, President Obama’s second term will be
ending, and Democrats already seem to be consoling themselves that
he won’t be a drag on the next election. His time will be over, and
voters won’t punish Democrats for his presidency. Tell that to John
McCain. A two-term president can still hurt a party even on the way
out, as Bush did in 2008. And if last night’s anti-Obama Republican
wave is any indication, the current president could hurt Democrats
in the next election too.
from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/1vJI8X1
via IFTTT