Soaring Russian Oil Imports Drag OPEC’s Market Share In India To Record Low

Soaring Russian Oil Imports Drag OPEC’s Market Share In India To Record Low

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Russia was India’s single largest oil supplier for a second consecutive fiscal year, as surging imports of Russian crude dragged down the share of OPEC and Middle East supply to India to a record low, Reuters reported on Friday, citing data from tanker-tracking data obtained from industry sources.

In the 2023/2024 fiscal year ended March 31, the share of Middle East oil supply of India’s oil imports slumped to as low as 46% — the lowest on record dating back to 2001-2002, according to the Reuters analysis. This compares with a 55% share of the Middle Eastern crude supply of Indian imports in the previous fiscal year 2022/2023.      

The key driver of historically low Indian imports from the Middle East was the surge in Russian crude supply to the world’s third-largest oil importer.

Russia alone accounted for around 35% of all Indian crude oil imports in 2023/2024, per the data compiled by Reuters.  

For the first time ever, India – which depends on imports for around 87% of its oil consumption – imported roughly equal volumes of OPEC and non-OPEC crude, thanks to the 57% annual surge in imports from non-OPEC producer Russia. 

Higher prices of Saudi crude and lower Kuwaiti supply as Kuwait limited exports of some grades to direct them to a new refinery also contributed to the low share of the OPEC and Middle Eastern crude of India’s imports. 

India’s crude imports remained flat in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, but the import bill of the world’s third-largest oil importer fell by almost 16% due to lower oil prices and record-high imports of cheaper Russian crude.   

While volumes were essentially unchanged, India’s spending on crude oil imports dropped by 16%, to $132.4 billion in 2023/2024, down from the $157.5 billion import bill for the 2022/2023 fiscal year, provisional data from the Indian Oil Ministry showed earlier this week.  

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/19/2024 – 19:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/UY6auSL Tyler Durden

“Defund NPR Act” Introduced In House Over Bias, “Radical, Left-Wing Activist” CEO

“Defund NPR Act” Introduced In House Over Bias, “Radical, Left-Wing Activist” CEO

Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) has introduced the “Defund NPR Act” to pull federal funds from National Public Radio, after veteran journalist Uri Berliner – who resigned this week following a suspension for penning a scathing article which exposed the network’s far-left bias, including the fact that the outlet’s DC bureau employs 87 registered Democrats and no Republicans, the Daily Caller reports.

What’s more, NPR CEO Katherine Maher – who once bragged about taking censorship orders from the feds as the head of Wikipedia, and said during a Ted Talk that “truth” is a “distraction” which is “getting in the way of getting things done,” was called out for years worth of woke diatribes on X (formerly Twitter), including calling herself “someone with cis white mobility privilege,” anger towards white men for flying business class, and defending looting.

NPR’s new CEO is a radical, left-wing activist who doesn’t believe in free speech or objective journalism. Hoosiers shouldn’t be writing her paychecks. Katherine Maher isn’t qualified to teach an introductory journalism class, much less capable of responsibly spending millions of American tax dollars,” Banks told the Daily Caller shortly before introducing the bill.

“NPR was a liberal looney bin under the last CEO John Lansing, and it’s about to get even nuttier. It’s time to pull the plug on this national embarrassment. Congress must stop spending other people’s hard-earned money on low grade propaganda,” Banks added.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/19/2024 – 19:00

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Huge Blast Rocks Iraq Base Used By Iran-Linked Militias

Huge Blast Rocks Iraq Base Used By Iran-Linked Militias

Reuters is reporting a “massive” blast at an Iraqi base used by Iran-linked militias south of Baghdad in the overnight hours (local). 

“A huge blast rocked a military base used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the south of Baghdad late on Friday,” army sources said to Reuters.

Few other details have been given, but images are widely circulating online showing what indeed appears to be a very large-scale strike.

A number of regional correspondents have been quick to identify it as an American military airstrike; however, given the events of the night prior (the ‘limited’ attack on Iran), others are speculating it was the Israelis behind it.

Both the Israelis and Americans have struck Iran-linked PMF bases before, mostly in Eastern Syria – but a strike on such a scale inside Iraq by Israel remains very rare or even unprecedented.

Of course, since this again takes place when he market is closed the only way to trade it is via bitcoin, where the algos have decided to price in the end of the world for the third time in 5 days.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/19/2024 – 18:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/kJE0pWN Tyler Durden

Is There More To This Current Bird Flu Panic Than Meets The Eye?

Is There More To This Current Bird Flu Panic Than Meets The Eye?

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Why are global health officials issuing such ominous warnings about the bird flu?  Do they know something that the rest of us do not? 

H5N1 has been circulating all over the planet for several years now, and it has been the worst outbreak that the world has ever seen.  Hundreds of millions of birds are already dead, and now H5N1 has been infecting mammals with alarming regularity.  The good news is that so far it has not been a serious threat to humans, but could that soon change? 

According to the World Health Organization, the possibility that H5N1 could start spreading among humans is an “enormous concern”

The increasing spread of bird flu to humans is an ‘enormous concern’, the World Health Organization has warned.

The virus, an extremely deadly H5N1 subtype, has caused devastating declines in bird populations following its emergence in Europe in 2020.

It has since jumped to mammals such as cows, cats, seals and now people, raising the risk of the virus mutating to become more transmissible.

The fact that so many different types of mammals are now being infected is definitely alarming.

But perhaps cows would not be getting infected if we were not literally feeding them chicken crap

As epidemiologists scramble to figure out how dairy cows throughout the Midwest became infected with a strain of highly pathogenic avian flu — a disease that has decimated hundreds of millions of wild and farmed birds, as well as tens of thousands of mammals across the planet — they’re looking at a standard “recycling” practice employed by thousands of farmers across the country: The feeding of animal waste and parts to livestock raised for human consumption.

“It seems ghoulish, but it is a perfectly legal and common practice for chicken litter — the material that accumulates on the floor of chicken growing facilities — to be fed to cattle,” said Michael Hansen, a senior scientist with Consumers Union.

It is not known if eating chicken crap is why so many cows in so many different states are being infected with H5N1.

But at a time when the bird flu is running rampant among chickens and turkeys, it seems very foolish to take chicken crap and feed it to our cows.

In any event, now there is a lot of panic about the potential for an H5N1 outbreak among humans.

Authorities at the WHO are warning that the death rate would be “extraordinarily high” if such an outbreak were to occur…

Experts at the WHO said humans face an ‘extraordinarily high’ mortality rate if the strain were to take hold, currently killing more than half of those infected.

I agree.

The bird flu is very dangerous, and if it starts spreading among humans on a widespread basis a lot of people will die.

So why are U.S. taxpayer dollars being used to fund experiments in China that are specifically designed to make bird flu viruses even more deadly?  The following comes from an extremely shocking Daily Mail article

Lawmakers are demanding answers after it was revealed the US is sending taxpayer dollars to a Chinese army lab to make bird flu viruses more dangerous to people.

Eighteen members of Congress are demanding answers from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) about the project, which was first revealed by DailyMail.com.

It is part of a $1million collaboration between the USDA and the CCP-run Chinese Academy of Sciences – the institution that oversees the Wuhan lab at the center of the Covid lab-leak theory.

In a scathing letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack last week, the bipartisan group said: ‘This research, funded by American taxpayers, could potentially generate dangerous new lab-created virus strains that threaten our national security and public health.’

As I warn in my latest book, mad scientists all over the globe are taking some of the most deadly bugs even known to humanity and are purposely trying to make them even more deadly.

And way too often, your tax dollars are paying for it.

Of course experiments on H5N1 are not new.

Over a decade ago, gain of function experiments that were funded by Dr. Francis S. Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci actually created a mutant version of H5N1 that “had gained the ability to spread through the air between ferrets”

And yet in late 2011 the world learned that two scientific teams – one in Wisconsin, led by virologist Yoshihiro Kawaoka, and another in the Netherlands, led by virologist Ron Fouchier – had potentially pushed the virus in that direction. Each of these labs had created H5N1 viruses that had gained the ability to spread through the air between ferrets, the animal model used to study how flu viruses might behave in humans.

The ultimate goal of this work was to help protect the world from future pandemics, and the research was supported with words and funding by two of the most prominent scientists in the United States: Dr. Francis S. Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Why would they purposely create such a thing?

Ferrets were specifically chosen for that research because they have respiratory systems that are very similar to humans.

Our ability to create deadly diseases far exceeds our ability to control them, and once something gets out it can spread around the globe in the blink of an eye.

Right now, there is a lot of concern about a “mystery respiratory illness” that has suddenly appeared in Argentina…

A mystery respiratory illness has hospitalised dozens of people in Argentina in an outbreak that shares eerie similarities with Covid’s arrival.

Sixty patients have been sickened with ‘severe atypical pneumonia’ in the capital, Buenos Aires.

An alert about the cluster of cases was last night circulated via an international public health surveillance system.

Covid was brought to the attention of the world in late 2019 as a result of the same database, called ProMed.

Hopefully this will turn out to be nothing.

But it is just a matter of time before more great pestilences ravage our planet.

Will H5N1 be one of them?

I don’t know, but this is a story that I will definitely be watching closely.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/19/2024 – 18:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/6cTIXae Tyler Durden

The World’s Economic Myths Are Hitting Their Limits

The World’s Economic Myths Are Hitting Their Limits

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

There are many myths about energy and the economy. In this post I explore the situation surrounding some of these myths.

My analysis strongly suggests that the transition to a new Green Economy is not progressing as well as hoped.

Green energy planners have missed the point that our physics-based economy favors low-cost producers.

In fact, the US and EU may not be far from an economic downturn because subsidized green approaches are not truly low-cost.

[1] The Chinese people have long believed that the safest place to store savings is in empty condominium apartments, but this approach is no longer working.

The focus on ownership of condominium homes is beginning to unwind, with huge repercussions for the Chinese economy. In March, new home prices in China declined by 2.2%, compared to a year earlier. Property sales fell by 20.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period a year ago, and new construction starts measured by floor area fell by 27.8%. Overall property investment in China fell by 9.5% in the first quarter of 2024. No one is expecting a fast rebound. The Chinese seem to be shifting their workforce from construction to manufacturing, but this creates different issues for the world economy, which I describe in Section [6].

[2] We have been told that Electric Vehicles (EVs) are the way of the future, but the rate of growth is slowing.

In the US, the rate of growth was only 3.3% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 47% one year ago. Tesla has made headlines, saying that it is laying off 10% of its staff. It also recently reported that it is delaying deliveries of its cybertruck. A big issue is the high prices of EVs; another is the lack of charging infrastructure. If EV sales are to truly expand, they will need both lower prices and much better charging infrastructure.

[3] Many people have assumed that home solar panel sales would rise forever, but now US home solar panel sales are shrinking.

A forecast made by the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie indicates that US solar panel installations by homeowners are expected to fall by 13% in 2024. There are many issues involved: higher interest rates, less generous subsidies to homeowners, not enough grid capacity for new generation, and too much overproduction of electricity by solar panels in the spring and fall, when heating and air conditioning demand is low. The overproduction issue is particularly acute in California.

For each individual 24-hour day, the timing of solar energy production does not match up well with when it is needed. With sufficient batteries, solar electricity produced in the morning can help run air conditioners in the evening. But storage from summer to winter is still not feasible, and batteries for short-term storage are expensive.

[4] It is a myth that wind and solar truly add to electricity supplies for the US and the countries in the EU. Instead, their pricing seems to lead to tighter electricity supplies.

Strangely enough, in the US and the EU, when wind and solar are added to the electric grid, electricity supplies seem to get tighter. For example, one article saysMost of US electric grid faces risk of resource shortfall through 2027, NERC [regulatory group] says.

Charts of electricity supply per capita show an unusual trend when wind and solar are added. Figure 1 shows that, in the US, once wind and solar are added, total electricity generation per capita falls, rather than rises!

Figure 1. US per capita electricity generation based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. (Data is through 2023, even though this is not easy to see from the labels.)

The EU, using a somewhat shorter history period, shows a similar pattern of declining total electricity generation per capita, even when wind and solar are added (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Electricity generation per capita for the European Union based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.

I believe that the strange pricing systems used for wind and solar in the US and EU are driving out other electricity suppliers, especially nuclear. With this system, intermittent electricity enjoys the subsidy of going first at the regular wholesale market rate. Other providers find themselves with very low or negative wholesale rates in the spring and fall of the year and on weekends and holidays. As a result, their overall return falls too low. Nuclear is particularly affected because it requires a huge, fixed investment, and it cannot be ramped up and down easily.

Besides the foregoing issues affecting the supply of electricity generated, there are also factors affecting the demand for electricity. Electricity generation using wind and solar tends to be high priced when all costs are included. The US and EU are already high-cost areas for businesses to operate. High electricity rates further add to the impetus to move manufacturing and other industry to lower-cost countries if businesses desire to be competitive in the world market.

    On a world basis, in 2022, wind and solar added about 13% to total world electricity generation (Figure 3).

    Figure 3. Electricity generation per capita for the World based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.

    Based on Figure 3, with the addition of wind and solar, the upward slope of the world per capita electricity generation has been able to remain pretty much constant from 1985 to 2022, at about 1.6% per year. But the US and the EU, as high-cost producers of goods and services, haven’t been able to participate in this per capita growth of electricity.

    Instead, China has been a major beneficiary of the shift of manufacturing overseas from the US and EU. It has been able to rapidly increase its electricity supply per capita, even with wind and solar. It has also been adding both nuclear and coal-fired electricity generation capacity.

    Figure 4. Electricity generation per capita for China based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.

    Thus, this analysis produces the result a person would expect if the physics of the world economy favors efficient (low-cost) producers.

    [5] It is a myth that the US and EU can greatly ramp up the use of EVs or greatly increase the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) without relying on fossil fuels.

    Both EV production and AI are heavy users of electricity supply. We have seen that the US and the EU no longer have growing per-capita electricity supplies. Ramping up electricity generation would require a long lead time (10 years or more), a major increase in fossil fuel consumption, and an increase in electricity transmission lines.

    The State of Georgia, in the United States, is already running into this issue, with planned data centers (related to AI) and EV manufacturing plants. The state plans to add new gas-fired electricity generation. It will also import more electricity from Mississippi Power, where the retirement of a coal-fired plant is being delayed to provide the necessary additional electricity. Eventually, more solar panels are planned, as well.

    [6] It is a myth that the world economy can continue as usual, whatever happens to energy supply and growing debt. China’s homebuilding problems could, in theory, lead to debt bubbles crashing around the world.

    The world economy depends upon a growing bubble of debt. It also depends on an ever-increasing supply of goods and services. In fact, the two are closely interrelated. As long as a growing supply of low-priced energy of the types used by built infrastructure is available, the economy tends to sail along.

    China, with problems in its property business, is an example of what can go wrong when energy supplies (coal in China) become expensive, as supply becomes increasingly constrained. Figure 5 shows that China’s per-capita coal supply became constrained in about 2013. China’s per capita coal extraction had been rising, but then it dipped. This made it more difficult for builders to construct the homes planned for would-be homeowners. This is part of what got home builders in China into financial difficulty.

    Figure 5. Per capita coal supply in China based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.

    Finally, in 2022, China was able to get coal production up. But the way this was done was through very high coal prices (Figure 6). (The prices shown are for Australian coal, but Chinese coal prices seem to be similar.)

    Figure 6. Newcastle Coal (Australia) prices in chart prepared by Trading Economics.

    Building concrete homes at such high coal prices would have resulted in new homes that were far too expensive for most Chinese citizens to afford. If builders were not already in difficulty from low supply, adding high coal prices, as well, would be a second blow. Furthermore, all the workers formerly engaged in home building needed new places to earn a living; the current approach seems to be to move many of these workers to manufacturing, so that the popping of the home building bubble will have less of an impact on the overall economy of China.

    There is now concern that China is ramping up its manufacturing, particularly for exports, at a time when China’s jobs in the property sector are disappearing. The problem, however, is that ramping up exports of manufactured goods creates a new bubble. This huge added supply of manufactured goods can only be sold at low prices. This new low-priced competition seems likely to lead to manufacturers, around the world, obtaining too-low prices for their manufactured products.

    If other economies around the world are forced to compete with even lower-cost goods from China, it could have an adverse impact on manufacturing around the world. With low prices, manufacturers are likely to lay off workers, or give them excessively low wages. If wages and prices are inadequate, debt bubbles in other parts of the world are likely to collapse. This will happen because many borrowers will become unable to repay their debt. This is the reason that we have been hearing a great deal recently about raising tariffs on Chinese exports.

    [7] The world’s biggest myth is that the world economy can continue to grow forever.

    I have pointed out previously that based on physics considerations, economies cannot be expected to be permanent structures. Economies and humans are both self-organizing systems that grow. Humans get their energy from food. Economies are powered by the types of energy products that our built infrastructure uses. Neither can grow forever. Neither can get along without energy products of the right types, in the right quantities.

    We become so accustomed to the narratives we hear that we tend to assume that what we are told must be right. These narratives could be based on wishful thinking, or on inadequate models, or on a sour grapes view that says, “We don’t want fossil fuels anyhow.” We know that humans need food, and that economies will continue to require fossil fuels. We can’t make wind turbines or solar panels without fossil fuels. What do we plan to do for energy without fossil fuels?

    In a finite world, economies cannot continue forever. We don’t know precisely what will go wrong or when it will go wrong, but we can get a hint from the recent failures of myths that our economy may change dramatically in the not-too-distant future.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/19/2024 – 18:00

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/w2RFQge Tyler Durden

    Rep. Greene: Congress Members Who Back Ukraine Aid Should Join Kiev’s Military

    Rep. Greene: Congress Members Who Back Ukraine Aid Should Join Kiev’s Military

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

    Republican Rep. Majorie Taylor-Greene has proposed an amendment requiring lawmakers who vote in favor of the $60 billion Ukrainian aid bill to join Ukraine’s military. Taylor-Greene and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) have pledged to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from his post if he allows a floor vote on the aid package. 

    In a social media post, Axios Capitol Hill reporter Juliegrace Brufke shared the text of the new amendment to the $61 billion Ukraine aid bill that has been stalled for months in Washington. The measure states, “Any Member of Congress who votes in favor of this Act shall be required to conscript in the Ukrainian military.”

    Rep Taylor Greene with her staff.

    “If you want to fund the endless foreign wars, you should have to go fight them,” Taylor-Greene posted on X. “That’s why I’m introducing an amendment that would require any Member of Congress who votes for the multibillion [dollar] Ukraine supplemental to enlist in Ukraine’s military.”

    The Georgia Republican also introduced amendments that would direct funding from Ukraine to space lasers to defend the southwest border, or aid to Americans impacted by a major train derailment in Ohio and wildfires in Hawaii. 

    Taylor-Greene introduced the amendments in retaliation after House Speaker Johnson broke an earlier pledge to block additional funding for the Ukraine proxy war unless Congress authorized significant funding for US immigration enforcement and various border reforms. 

    Johnson plans to have the House vote on a series of four bills that will provide $61 billion to Ukraine, $26 billion to Israel, and $8 billion to Taiwan. The fourth bill is expected to be called a “national security” law that includes a TikTok ban and gives the president the power to sell off frozen Russian assets and transfer the money to Ukraine. 

    In addition to the amendment, Taylor-Greene has called to oust Johnson from the speakership over his broken promise. The congresswoman has been joined by Massie, which means Johnson would not survive a removal vote without support from Democrats. 

    Taylor-Greene’s effort to stymie the Ukraine aid package has drawn the ire of some of her colleagues. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) introduced two amendments smearing the lawmaker as an agent of Russia.

    The amendment says Taylor-Greene has “repeatedly attempted to block aid to Ukraine, empowering Vladimir Putin’s unlawful violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The congresswoman has vocally embraced an ‘America First’ philosophy and has explained that continued funding for the war in Ukraine does nothing to benefit Americans. 

    Taylor-Greene has also pointed to Kiev’s undemocratic policies and the sizable neo-Nazi presence within its military as other reasons for opposing the $61 billion aid bill. Moskowitz later attacked Taylor-Greene for highlighting the hardline elements in Ukraine’s armed forces. 

    “Stop bringing up Nazis and Hitler. The only people who know about Nazis and Hitler are the 10 million people and their families who lost their loved ones – generations of people who were wiped out,” Moskowitz said. “It is enough of this disgusting behavior, using Nazis as propaganda … You want to talk about Nazis? Get yourself over to the Holocaust Museum. You go see what Nazis did.”

    However, Moskowitz has repeatedly invoked the Nazi label to further his own political agenda, once declaring that X was “crawling with Nazi termites” and later claiming Hamas has similar goals to the Third Reich.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/19/2024 – 17:40

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/E14ChT8 Tyler Durden

    Living On Uneasy Street

    Living On Uneasy Street

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    It’s nice to anticipate sunny weather, but it’s a good idea to carry an umbrella just in case the forecasts prove overly optimistic.

    Yes, the market will rally if World War III didn’t start last night. The market will also rally if World War III does start, because the Federal Reserve will surely lower interest rates.

    We chuckle uneasily at gallows humor here on Uneasy Street because we’re still required to maintain an upbeat veneer of endlessly cheerful optimism even as we sense that the forces currently in play are beyond the control of individuals or groups, no matter how powerful they may be, and that these forces will follow a course to an end no one can predict with any degree of upbeat confidence.

    Back when we lived on Easy Street, things were getting better for everyone in varying degrees and the ladder of social mobility was available to all: anyone could improve their prospects by putting in the effort.

    Fortunes were being minted, lists of reasons to be optimistic proliferated like overfed rabbits and spots of bother ran off the road on their own, requiring nothing of us.

    Life on Uneasy Street is, well, different. The lists of reasons to be optimistic are still everywhere, but they now ring hollow, as those conjuring the lists sound increasingly frantic: come on, people, get with the program, it’s all gonna be wunnerful, AI, AI, AI, Roaring 20s, blah blah blah.

    The only true believers are those paid to shill the optimism by those seeking to maximize their profits via selling the sizzle rather than the actual steak. The entire exercise of trying to convince us that we still live on Easy Street is simply more evidence that Easy Street is a figment of imagination.

    Now that various forces have been unleashed, gravity and the lay of the land will dictate the course of history. Yes, yes, our technological powers are god-like, we’re going to Mars, there’s a new (and immensely profitable, of course) technological solution to every problem, so just buy, buy, buy the latest gadget or med: imagine that, you can talk to your refrigerator! Wow. That solves a ton of pressing problems.

    Too bad the fridge fails in a few years and has to be replaced, the med must be taken forever or your ill health returns, the side effects require a couple more meds, each of which has their own side effects, and going to Mars has no causal connection to actually solving problems here on Earth with some new technology.

    Cycles play out despite our cheerleading inspirational rah-rah. Humans respond the same old way to the tightening of various screws: they start hoarding what’s scarce, start seeing conquest and war as the go-to solutions to scarcities and rivalries, reasons to cooperate wither under the relentless sun of crisis while reasons to disagree proliferate most disagreeably like noxious weeds.

    Just like all the other creatures on the planet, humans expand their consumption and numbers in times of plenty and are unprepared for the inevitable asymmetries of supply (stagnant or declining) and demand–forever rising, as growth is the one essential for the status quo, regardless of ideological type or label.

    As supplies no longer exceed demand, inflation (loss of purchasing power of wages) eats the bottom 90% alive, while the rise of debt that so wondrously expanded the asset wealth of the top 10% starts eating its own tail, as interest rises faster than wages or actual production.

    Various grandiose solutions are promoted that claim to fix the pressing problems. Some are absurd techno-fantasies (huge mirrors to deflect solar radiation–never mind the increasingly untenable cloud of space junk orbiting Earth), and some sound appealing but are not as painless as advertised, for example, the clearing away of all debt with a jubilee in which all debts are instantly forgiven.

    A debt jubilee is certainly appealing to debtors and those who see the cliff ahead, but recall that all debt is an asset that is holding up an asset class far larger than the debt itself: mortgage debt is what props up the entire global real estate market, and what happens to valuations when debt ceases to exist?

    Those who see jubilee as a solution also tend to ignore that all this debt is an asset of which 90% is owned by the wealthy class who run the status quo. Every bond, every mortgage-backed security and every bundled student loan / auto loan is an asset owned by someone or some entity who depends on that asset and its income stream for their wealth and thus their political power.

    To hazard a guess based on human history, the wealthy / powerful will probably not be too keen to surrender the vast majority of their wealth and thus their power in the laudable pursuit of eliminating all debt and starting over.

    Again based on the usual human responses to decay, decline, scarcities and threats to “what’s mine,” we can anticipate the elite’s preference for a messy, chaotic form of jubilee in which various borrowers default and the underlying assets that provided collateral for the loan will be liquidated.

    The elite hope that this messy, chaotic form of jubilee will reduce the debt so gradually that the system that benefits them will continue on its merry way. This hope is misplaced, however, for when collateral gets auctioned off at bargain prices, the value of all other similar assets drops accordingly.

    And since nobody wants to catch the falling knife of crashing valuations, buyers are scarce, so the selling begets more selling and prices are pressured lower. Those who reckoned they were “buying the bottom” are wiped out, increasing the reluctance of survivors to take the risk of buying assets which could get much cheaper.

    Soaring defaults tend to self-reinforce via feedback as the herd gets skittish and the appetite for risk vanishes like early morning mist in Death Valley. As buyers of crashing assets are carried out on stretchers, those who still own the sinking assets are watching their treasured wealth disappear, so they sell–at first with high expectations, and eventually in pure panic.

    The future looks cloudy here on Uneasy Street, and everyone’s still hoping for sunny days rather than a deluge. It’s nice to anticipate sunny weather, but it’s a good idea to carry an umbrella just in case the forecasts prove overly optimistic.

    Here are three snapshots of what we’re told is Easy Street: global debt skyrocketing:

    Federal debt skyrocketing:

    Financial wealth of the bottom 50% plummeting:

    But think of the opportunities pre-cliff-dive:

    As assets are liquidated, look for “likes” and upbeat Yelp reviews:

    *  *  *

    Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    Subscribe to my Substack for free

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/19/2024 – 17:20

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/hl1RpMB Tyler Durden

    Watch Live: Countdown To The Most Important ‘Halving’ In Bitcoin History

    Watch Live: Countdown To The Most Important ‘Halving’ In Bitcoin History

    We’ve previewed the shit out of this ‘halving’ (here, here, here, and here most recently) and now it’s here.

    As Bitcoin Magazine notes, this halving event – projected to occur within the next few hourswill occur as Bitcoin reaches block 840,000, marking the point at which its relative supply issuance will drop below that of gold for the first time.

    Previous halvings have historically acted as a turning point in the market as the reduction in newly issued coins has been met with surging demand for the currency throughout each prior halving cycle.

    As a reminder, this is part of Bitcoin’s design, which is hard-coded into the protocol, limiting the total Bitcoin supply to 21,000,000 BTC. New Bitcoin is issued through mining rewards that have been reducing roughly every four years. In the latest, 4th halving episode, the mining reward will be cut from the 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.

    This time around, the halving has been preceded by a new all-time high, an occurrence that has never happened since Bitcoin’s inception in January 2009.

    Between the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States (arguably the most successful ETF debut in history) by major financial institutions, and a potential resurgence in inflation, the Bitcoin bulls are on parade driving the market higher into uncharted territory.

    Net flows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs have become more balanced. Overall, the magnitude of fresh inflows/outflows and the net flows have fallen over the course of last month.

    But, as Goldman Sachs points out, the impact of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs on BTC supply is notable.

    At present, the US Bitcoin ETFs are holding about $53b in assets (Bloomberg), which is about 835k Bitcoin.

    This corresponds to the US Spot BTC ETFs holding :

    • 4.25% of total Bitcoin supply

    • 6.20% of Bitcoin supply that was active in the last 5 years

    • 12.40% of Bitcoin supply that was active in the last year

    In celebration of the historic fourth Bitcoin halving and to ring in a new epoch in sound money, Bitcoin Magazine and Kraken are Livestreaming the event.

    This event will bring together prominent voices in the Bitcoin space including Barstool CEO Dave Portnoy, Strike CEO Jack Mallers, Bitcoin Magazine Institutional Lead Dylan LeClair, and Ten31 Managing Partner Matt Odell.

    Other guests slated to appear on the livestream are Bitcoin Magazine Chief Content Officer Pete Rizzo, Human Rights Foundation Director of Financial Freedom Christian Keroles, Simply Bitcoin Founder Nico Moran, Bitcoin Magazine Correspondent Isabella Santos, and Pomp Investments Founder Anthony Pompliano.

    In the countdown to Bitcoin’s fourth epoch, Livestream guests will review the Top 21 Moments of the past four years, as voted on by Bitcoin Magazine readers.

    Top moments include the rise of the Laser Eyes meme, MicroStrategy unveiling of its bitcoin-based treasury strategy, and the notorious rise and fall of disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. In partnership with Nitrobetting, Bitcoin Magazine will be awarding a 1 BTC prize pool for the Bitcoin Halving Challenge to contestants who most closely predict the price of the currency at Block 840,000.

    Viewers will be able to count down to the halving with some of the biggest names in the space and commemorate the growth of Bitcoin with a New Year’s Eve-style celebration with Bitcoiners from around the world.

    The full roster of Livestream participants can be seen on www.BitcoinHalving.com and viewers can tune in on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channelTwitter (X)LinkedInRumble and Facebook.

    Watch the Livestream here (due to begin when the block height reaches 839,974):

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/19/2024 – 17:00

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/mMsZy1w Tyler Durden

    US Domestic Bank Deposits Drop For Second Straight Week

    US Domestic Bank Deposits Drop For Second Straight Week

    On the heels of a major deposit outflow the week before, and a huge (record) money-market fund outflow last week, all eyes are back on the banks again on Friday evening to see if this ‘flight’ continues as Tax-Day drags cash away from its comfy-5%-earnings-spots.

    On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US bank deposits declined for the second straight week (though only $2.4BN) after reaching back to pre-SVB levels…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And once again – like last week, and rather oddly giving the tax-day’ timing – non-seasonally-adjusted bank deposits rose $16BN, now well above pre-SVB levels…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is some of the money-market cash being moved (temporarily) into bank deposits before heading out to tax man?

    Source: Bloomberg

    Historically, it appears NEXT week is when we see the Tax-Day decline in the NSA data…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Excluding foreign deposits, domestic bank deposits did fall on both an SA (-$2.9BN – large banks -$14.8BN, small banks +11.9BN) and NSA (-$12bn – large banks -$24BN, small banks +12BN) basis.

    Source: Bloomberg

    But, unlike last week when deposits dropped, we saw bank loan volumes rise (not fall) in the week ending 4/10 with large bank voilumes rising 0.65BN and small bank volumes rising $7.3BN…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, as we detailed earlier, it appears the reality of bank reserves at The Fed is slowly (but surely) catching up with US equity market cap…

    Source: Bloomberg

    That’s going to get awkward in an election year…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/19/2024 – 16:44

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lutWcbm Tyler Durden

    Down With Big Brother: Warrantless Surveillance Makes A Mockery Of The Constitution

    Down With Big Brother: Warrantless Surveillance Makes A Mockery Of The Constitution

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Whether he wrote DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER, or whether he refrained from writing it, made no difference … The Thought Police would get him just the same … the arrests invariably happened at night … In the vast majority of cases there was no trial, no report of the arrest. People simply disappeared, always during the night. Your name was removed from the registers, every record of everything you had ever done was wiped out, your one-time existence was denied and then forgotten. You were abolished, annihilated: vaporized was the usual word.”

    – George Orwell, 1984

    The government long ago sold us out to the highest bidder.

    The highest bidder, by the way, has always been the Deep State.

    What’s playing out now with the highly politicized tug-of-war over whether Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act gets reauthorized by Congress doesn’t just sell us out, it makes us slaves of the Deep State.

    Read the fine print: it’s a doozy.

    Just as the USA Patriot was perverted from its stated intent to fight terrorism abroad and was instead used to covertly crack down on the American people (allowing government agencies to secretly track Americans’ financial activities, monitor their communications, and carry out wide-ranging surveillance on them), Section 702 has been used as an end-run around the Constitution to allow the government to collect the actual content of your conversations (phone calls, text messages, video chats, emails and other electronic communication) without a warrant.

    Now intelligence officials are pushing to dramatically expand the government’s spying powers, effectively giving the government unbridled authority to force millions of Americans to spy on its behalf.

    Basically, the Deep State wants to turn the American people into extensions of Big Brother.

    As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) explains:

    If you have access to any communications, the government can force you to help it spy. That means anyone with access to a server, a wire, a cable box, a Wi-Fi router, a phone, or a computer. So think for a moment about the millions of Americans who work in buildings and offices in which communications are stored or pass through.

    After all, every office building in America has data cables running through it. The people are not just the engineers who install, maintain, and repair our communications infrastructure; there are countless others who could be forced to help the government spy, including those who clean offices and guard buildings. If this provision is enacted, the government can deputize any of these people against their will, and force them in effect to become what amounts to an agent for Big Brother—for example, by forcing an employee to insert a USB thumb drive into a server at an office they clean or guard at night.

    This could all happen without any oversight whatsoever: The FISA Court won’t know about it, Congress won’t know about it. Americans who are handed these directives will be forbidden from talking about it. Unless they can afford high-priced lawyers with security clearances who know their way around the FISA Court, they will have no recourse at all.”

    This is how an effort to reform Section 702 has quickly steamrollered into an expansion of the government’s surveillance powers.

    We should have seen this coming.

    After all, the Police State doesn’t relinquish power easily, the Surveillance State doesn’t look favorably on anything that might weaken its control, and Big Brother doesn’t like to be restricted.

    What most Americans don’t get is that even without Section 702 in play, the government will still target the populace for warrantless, suspicionless mass surveillance, because that’s how the police state maintains its stranglehold on power.

    These maneuvers are just the tip of the iceberg.

    For all intents and purposes, we now have a fourth branch of government.

    This fourth branch came into being without any electoral mandate or constitutional referendum, and yet it possesses superpowers, above and beyond those of any other government agency save the military.

    It is all-knowing, all-seeing and all-powerful.

    It operates beyond the reach of the president, Congress and the courts, and it marches in lockstep with the corporate elite who really call the shots in Washington, DC.

    The government’s “technotyranny” surveillance apparatus has become so entrenched and entangled with its police state apparatus that it’s hard to know anymore where law enforcement ends and surveillance begins. They have become one and the same entity.

    The police state has passed the baton to the surveillance state.

    On any given day, the average American is now monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

    Every second of every day, the American people are being spied on by the U.S. government’s vast network of digital Peeping Toms, electronic eavesdroppers and robotic snoops.

    Beware of what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, and with whom you communicate, because it will all be recorded, stored and used against you eventually, at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

    Privacy, as we have known it, is dead.

    Whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking you. This doesn’t even begin to touch on the complicity of the corporate sector, which buys and sells us from cradle to grave, until we have no more data left to mine. These corporate trackers monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere and share the data with the government.

    Just about every branch of the government—from the Postal Service to the Treasury Department and every agency in between—now has its own surveillance sector, authorized to collect data and spy on the American people. Then there are the fusion and counterterrorism centers that gather all of the data from the smaller government spies—the police, public health officials, transportation, etc.—and make it accessible for all those in power.

    These government snoops are constantly combing through and harvesting vast quantities of our communications, then storing it in massive databases for years. Once this information—collected illegally and without any probable cause—is ingested into NSA servers, other government agencies can often search through the databases to make criminal cases against Americans that have nothing to do with terrorism or anything national security-related.

    Empowered by advances in surveillance technology and emboldened by rapidly expanding public-private partnerships between law enforcement, the Intelligence Community, and the private sector, police have become particularly adept at sidestepping the Fourth Amendment.

    Talk about a system rife for abuse.

    Now, the government wants us to believe that we have nothing to fear from its mass spying program because they’re only looking to get the “bad” guys who are overseas.

    Don’t believe it.

    The government’s definition of a “bad” guy is extraordinarily broad, and it results in the warrantless surveillance of innocent, law-abiding Americans on a staggering scale.

    Indeed, the government has become the biggest lawbreaker of all.

    It’s telling that even after it was revealed that the FBI, one of the most power-hungry and corrupt agencies within the police state’s vast complex of power-hungry and corrupt agencies, misused a massive government surveillance database more than 300,000 times in order to target American citizens, we’re still debating whether they should be allowed to continue to sidestep the Fourth Amendment.

    This is how the government operates, after all: our objections are routinely overruled and our rights trampled underfoot.

    It works the same every time.

    First, the government seeks out extraordinary powers acquired in the wake of some national crisis—in this case, warrantless surveillance powers intended to help the government spy on foreign targets suspected of engaging in terrorism—and then they use those powers against the American people.

    According to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI repeatedly misused Section 702 in order to spy on the communications of two vastly disparate groups of Americans: those involved in the George Floyd protests and those who may have taken part in the Jan. 6, 2021, protests at the Capitol.

    This abuse of its so-called national security powers is par for the course for the government.

    According to the Brennan Center for Justice, intelligence agencies conduct roughly 200,000 of these warrantless “backdoor” searches for Americans’ private communications each year.

    No one is spared.

    Many of the targets of these searches have done nothing wrong.

    Government agents have spied on the communications of protesters, members of Congress, crime victims, journalists, and political donors, among many others.

    The government has claimed that its spying on Americans is simply “incidental,” as though it were an accident, but it fully intends to collect this information.

    As journalist Jake Johnson warns, under an expanded Section 702, U.S. intelligence agencies “could, without a warrant, compel gyms, grocery stores, barber shops, and other businesses to hand over communications data.”

    According to the Wall Street Journal, “The Securities and Exchange Commission is deploying a massive government database—the Consolidated Audit Trail, or CAT—that monitors in real time the identity, transactions and investment portfolio of everyone who invests in the stock market.”

    Journalist Leo Hohmann reports that the government is also handing out $20 million in grants to police, mental health networks, universities, churches and school districts to enlist their help in identifying Americans who might be political dissidents or potential “extremists.”

    Ask the government why it’s carrying out this far-reaching surveillance on American citizens, and you’ll get the same Orwellian answer the government has been trotting in response to every so-called crisis to justify its assaults on our civil liberties: to keep America safe.

    What this is really all about, however, is control.

    What we are dealing with is a government so power-hungry, paranoid and afraid of losing its stranglehold on power that it is conspiring to wage war on anyone who dares to challenge its authority.

    When the FBI is asking banks and other financial institutions to carry out dragnet searches of customer transactions—warrantlessly and without probable cause—for “extremism” indicators broadly based on where you shop, what you read, and how you travel, we’re all in trouble.

    You don’t have to do anything illegal.

    For that matter, you don’t even have to challenge the government’s authority.

    Frankly, you don’t even have to care about politics or know anything about your rights.

    All you really need to do in order to be tagged as a suspicious character, flagged for surveillance, and eventually placed on a government watch list is live in the United States.

    As long as the government is allowed to weaponize its 360 degree surveillance technologies to flag you as a threat to national security, whether or not you’ve done anything wrong, it’s just a matter of time before you find yourself wrongly accused, investigated and confronted by police based on a data-driven algorithm or risk assessment culled together by a computer program run by artificial intelligence.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it won’t be long before Big Brother’s Thought Police are locking us up to “protect us” from ourselves.

    At that point, we will disappear.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/19/2024 – 16:20

    via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/8COZcwL Tyler Durden