Veteran Bucks the Former Mayor of Phoenix, City Makes Him Pay for More Than a Decade

Robert Stapleton was a United States Marine in Vietnam. The war left him injured, and with a desire to be alone, and far away from people.

When he came back to the States, he moved his then-wife and their young son out to a small house on a half-acre plot of land on the outskirts of Phoenix, Arizona.

“I was just spent when I got done with the whole thing,” Stapleton tells Reason of his experience. “I came to the desert to rest and regroup. And this was fine, this little house.”

For thirty years, Stapleton raised horses and plied his trade as a blacksmith while the city slowly grew up around him. During that time, says Stapleton, no one seemed to care much about his property or what he did with it.

Until the former mayor of Phoenix set eyes on it.

In 2006, Larry Herring, a representative for former mayor Phil Johnson offered Stapleton $225,000 for his property. Johnson intended to build condominiums next door. Stapleton told Herring his offer was much too low.

Herring, Stapleton says, told him if he didn’t sell, “bad things are going to happen to you” and that “a stone wall is going to fall on you.”

Since then Stapleton has been struggling to keep the stone wall from crushing him. His story first came to light during an an investigation into Arizona’s city courts by Mark Flatten with the Goldwater Institute.

Stapleton’s fight, Flatten tells Reason, illustrates how the power of government is arrayed against justice for its citizens. “Everyone you are up against works for the city council,” Flatten says. “The whole system leaves defendants with very little due process, and with very little independent review.”

Shortly after rebuffing Herring’s offer, city officials cited Stapleton with six violations of the zoning code, everything from a fence that was too high, to vehicles improperly parked. The fines were $2,500 and came with the threat of six months in jail for each violation.

Stapleton argued each of the violations were for long-standing features of his property, necessary for raising horses. “These things are farm things, and it’s a farm,” Stapleton says. “You didn’t bother me for thirty years. Now somebody wants the property, you want to bother me. And they were going to send me to jail to do it.”

Stapleton chose to fight. The city rejected his request for a jury trial and in May 2007, a city judge fined Stapleton $15,000 and sentenced him to three years probation on the condition that he address his code violations or go to jail.

At the same time the city was punishing Stapleton it was granting multiple variances to the ex-mayor’s development next door, one of them to allowed him to build a fence a foot higher than the one for which it fined Stapleton.

“They don’t use the law to help people. They use the law to hurt people, and they use the law to hurt specified people,” he says.

Stapleton agreed to pay off his fines in $500 monthly installments, but refused to make the changes demanded by the court. Rather than let the matter go, prosecutors sought jail time even though Stapleton had suffered a stroke. In April 2010, he was sentenced to 60 days in the Maricopa County Jail and 45 days of home detention. Jailers disqualified him from detention for health reasons and sent him home.

Stapleton’s public defender, Laurie Herman told the Flatten that the city was looking to make an example of Stapleton. “He was treated unusually harshly because he didn’t cave…and because he didn’t submit to the authority, that really irked them.”

The city of Phoenix denies it singled out Stapleton for especially harsh treatment, or that it doing so because of pressure from Johnson. In response to written questions submitted by the Flatten, the city said, “if the court finds the owner responsible but he still refuses to clean up the property, the city prosecutor may file criminal charges. The Stapleton case went through all steps of this process.”

Johnson also told Flatten that he never leaned on the city to pursue Stapleton’s case.

Stapleton paid off his fines in December 2015, but his troubles might not be over. The Goldwater Institute obtained emails from Justin Johnson, son of the ex-mayor and manager of the now completed housing development, to city officials pointing out more code violations on Stapleton’s property.

Stapleton says he’s prepared to fight for his rights all over again again, telling Reason it’s not just about his property, it’s about justice.

“It’s just engrained in my mind,” he says. “You stand for the right, because it’s right. When you think there is something wrong, do something. Don’t quibble, do something.”

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Mr. Smith Goes to Court

America’s oldest ongoing civil case began in 1951, when the military sued thousands of Southern California landowners to establish Camp Pendleton’s control of their water rights. The move sparked a lot of outrage at the time. The Los Angeles Times, which in those days tended toward a curmudgeonly conservatism, crusaded against it; Reader’s Digest joined in too; The Saturday Evening Post ran a story on the subject headlined “The Government’s Big Grab.” That piece opened with some of the most egregious elements of the tale, like the church that had used just $4.70 worth a water in a month and was nonetheless being told it could be cut off. Then the authors laid out what they saw as the stakes of the story: “if the Federal Government can, by sovereign authority, take California water, then it might, by the same reasoning and authority, take anything anywhere.”

By the end of the ’50s a lot of the smaller landholders had been dropped from the case, and in 1963 a judge ruled largely, though not entirely, against the feds. Since then the saga has seemed less like an apocalyptic fight for freedom and more like an endless stretch of legal trench warfare, as different litigants dispute the precise boundaries of their rights. “This western water rights case will likely outlive us all,” The San Diego Union-Tribune concluded last year.

But our interest here is in the early days of the conflict, and in one particular property owner who got drawn into the fray. One of the landholders sued by the feds was Frank Capra, the director behind such films as It’s a Wonderful Life, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and Meet John Doe. The Chamber of Commerce and The Los Angeles Times asked Capra to make a movie about the issue, and so he helmed a short documentary called The Fallbrook Story, released in 1952. He kept his name off it, and I can’t say I blame him—on an artistic level it may well be the worst thing he ever made. Capra’s biographer Joseph McBride wrote that it feels “like a crude parody of a Frank Capra film”; I think McBride is wrong about many things, but not about that.

But while The Fallbrook Story is too clumsy to be good art and too romanticized to be solid journalism, it still comes down on the right side of the dispute. And it is, at the very least, a fascinating footnote in the filmmaker’s career. Watch it here:

Since this battle pit citizens against the national security state in the feverish early years of the Cold War—and during the Korean hot war at that—you might wonder whether any of the people battling the feds were redbaited. In fact, the era’s most infamous redbaiter seems to have sided with the landholders. That San Diego Union-Tribune piece points out that the “Navy’s participation in the lawsuit was even investigated by a Senate subcommittee helmed by Sen. Joseph R. McCarthy, known for his reckless Cold War accusations, on grounds that there was a previous order prohibiting the use of Navy funds to prosecute the case.” McCarthy, of course, was not a guy who let his fear of communism keep him from picking fights with the military, a fact that eventually led to his doom.

(For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here. For other installments featuring Frank Capra, go here and here.)

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Trump Invites “Crushing” Response After Designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guard As Terrorist Organization

While Trump’s just announced decision to decertify the Iranian nuclear deal, giving Congress 60 days to decide whether to unwind Obama’s landmark dlea, was widely leaked previously even though few can point to just what aspects of the deal Iran violated, one aspect of Trump’s Iran statement was unclear: whether he would designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, or IRGC, the elite wing of Iran’s army, a terrorist organization –  a move which Iran vowed would prompt “decisive , crushing” retaliation.

Trump did just that, and the new, sweeping sanctions on the IRGC could affect conflicts in Iraq and Syria, where Tehran and Washington both support warring parties that oppose the Islamic State militant group. This is what the Treasury posted on its sanctions website moments ago:

Treasury Designates the IRGC under Terrorism Authority and Targets IRGC and Military Supporters under Counter-Proliferation Authority

 

WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pursuant to the global terrorism Executive Order (E.O.) 13224 and consistent with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.  OFAC designated the IRGC today for its activities in support of the IRGC-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), which was designated pursuant to E.O. 13224 on October 25, 2007, for providing support to a number of terrorist groups, including Hizballah and Hamas, as well as to the Taliban.  The IRGC has provided material support to the IRGC-QF, including by providing training, personnel, and military equipment.

 

“The IRGC has played a central role to Iran becoming the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror.  Iran’s pursuit of power comes at the cost of regional stability, and Treasury will continue using its authorities to disrupt the IRGC’s destructive activities,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin.  “We are designating the IRGC for providing support to the IRGC-QF, the key Iranian entity enabling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s relentless campaign of brutal violence against his own people, as well as the lethal activities of Hizballah, Hamas, and other terrorist groups. We urge the private sector to recognize that the IRGC permeates much of the Iranian economy, and those who transact with IRGC-controlled companies do so at great risk.”

 

IRGC

 

The IRGC was designated today for the activities it undertakes to assist in, sponsor, or provide financial, material, or technological support for, or financial or other services to or in support of, the IRGC-QF.  The IRGC, which is the parent organization of the IRGC-QF, was previously designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 on October 25, 2007, in connection with its support to Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs, and pursuant to E.O. 13553 on June 9, 2011 and E.O. 13606 on April 23, 2012, in connection with Iran’s human rights abuses.

 

The IRGC has provided material support to the IRGC-QF, including by providing training, personnel, and military equipment.  The IRGC has trained IRGC-QF personnel in Iran prior to their deployments to Syria, and has deployed at least hundreds of personnel from its conventional ground forces to Syria to support IRGC-QF operations.  IRGC personnel in Syria have provided military assistance to the IRGC-QF, and have been assigned to IRGC-QF units on the battlefield, where they provide critical combat support, including serving as snipers and machine gunners.

 

Additionally, the IRGC has recruited, trained, and facilitated the travel of Afghan and Pakistani nationals to Syria, where those personnel are assigned to, and fight alongside, the IRGC-QF.  The IRGC also has worked with the IRGC-QF to transfer military equipment to Syria.  The IRGC used both IRGC bases and civilian airports in Iran to transfer military equipment to Iraq and Syria for the IRGC-QF.

Now it’s a question of what Iran (and Russia) does: as a reminder, on Monday, Iran vowed to give a “firm and crushing” response if Washington adds the IRGC to the list of terrorist organizations, which the US just did. 

“We are hopeful that the United States does not make this strategic mistake,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi stated during a news conference according to Reuters. “If they do, Iran’s reaction would be firm, decisive and crushing and the United States should bear all its consequences.”

 

Commenting on the IRGC designation, University of Tehran analyst Seyed Mohammad Marandi said that Iran will give a similar designation to the US military. Asked by the local media if he expects Trump to decertify the nuclear deal on October, 15, and what impact this could have on stability in the world, Marandi responded:

It is quite possible. Of course, Mr. Trump is a very unpredictable person, but all indications seem to show that that is what he is going to do. If he does decertify the agreement, basically it will show the international community the US is an untrustworthy country, and it is not a country you can negotiate with. It will prevent Iran from being able to carry out any negotiations in the future with the US because the Iranians will conclude that even if there is some sort of agreement over any Issue, the US may tear up that agreement later on. And I think the same is true with any country that wants or is even contemplating negotiating with the US. The US hurts itself more than anyone else. If it wishes to increase sanctions on Iran, then I think the Iranians will find the means to retaliate.

 

* * *

 

If he decertifies the nuclear deal, a lot will depend on the reaction of the EU countries. If the EU countries simply verbally oppose Trump, that is one way of moving forward. I think that would lead to the deal unfolding completely. If on the other hand, the EU countries and England decide that they will retaliate against the US, that they will sue the US or punish the US if it tries to punish their companies, that may bring about a different situation. But without a doubt, if the US wants to push for greater confrontation with Iran, the Iranians know quite well that the only way to make sure the US backs off is if the Iranians push back just as hard, if not harder. Iran will not initiate any form of confrontation, conflict or tit-for-tat, but if the US begins something, then the Iranians will definitely push back very hard

As for whether the Iran deal ends following a Congressional review, a U.S. pullout from the Iran deal would unravel an accord seen by supporters as vital to preventing a Middle East arms race and tamping down regional tensions, since it limits Iran’s ability to enrich uranium for nuclear fuel in exchange for the lifting of sanctions that damaged its oil-based economy. As a reminder, prior to the deal Iran and Israel were constantly at each other’s throats, resulting in a constant fear of imminent war between the two nations.

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Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Move

We noted a month ago that the long-awaited Saudi Aramco IPO, scheduled for mid-2018, could be delayed to 2019, but now, according to The FT, Aramco is considering shelving plans for an IPO altogether in favor of a private share sale to the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds.

The FT notes that talks about a private sale to foreign governments – including China – and other investors have gathered pace in recent weeks, according to five people familiar with the IPO preparations, amid growing concerns about the feasibility of an international listing.

The Saudi state oil company has struggled to select a suitable international venue for its shares, as New York and London have vied for what has been billed as the largest ever flotation.

 

The company would still aim to list shares on the kingdom’s Tadawul exchange next year if they pursue the private sale, the people said.

 

The latest proposal by the company’s financial advisers was described by one of the people as a “face-saving” option for Saudi Aramco, which has worked on plans to list its shares internationally for more than a year.

Desk chatter included comments that the Saudis were anxious about the level of due diligence and transparency involved in a public offering.

A Saudi Aramco spokesperson said:

“A range of options, for the public listing of Saudi Aramco, continue to be held under active review. No decision has been made and the IPO process remains on track.”

The planned listing of a 5 per cent stake in Saudi Aramco is the centrepiece of an economic reform programme led by Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is keen for a 2018 IPO. He has said the company could be worth $2tn although a Financial Times analysis put the valuation figure at around $1tn.

An economic recession in the kingdom is piling pressure on the prince, the king’s son and next in line for the throne, amid calls for the government to increase investment and ease austerity. As we noted previously, there could be more at play here…

Some analysts view the possible IPO delay as a sign of the problems Aramco and the Saudi government currently face. A lack of transparency, issues with its oil and gas reserves, and the role of the Saudi government as the main stakeholder have all been suggested as the reason for this possible delay. Most of these suggestions, however, are based purely on issues surrounding the IPO itself. The true reason for this delay, however, likely hides among the intricate societal and economic problems in the Kingdom.

 

One obvious reason for a delay is the still-fledgling global oil price. A higher price setting—above $60 per barrel—would surely drive up the overall interest in the IPO. As long as OPEC and non-OPEC members, such as Russia, are still struggling to get a grip on the oil market, the potential for disaster looms. Needless to say, an oil price slump would have a detrimental effect on the expected revenues of the IPO.

The analysts, it seems, feel no need to look any further than this simple oil price explanation, but several other key factors should be addressed…

 

The impact of an influx of $1-2 trillion into the current Saudi economy is bound to have a significant impact. The implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 is broad and ambitiously planned. A full diversification of the economy is needed to guarantee work and salaries for future young Saudis, with the end of government subsidies or handouts.

 

A multitrillion investment scheme in a rather small local economy will likely result in total disorder, inflation and possibly ineffective investment schemes. The attractiveness of investing the total amount could lead to staggering inflation, higher costs and superfluous projects being realized.

 

A delay of such an influx of cash seems to be more and more attractive, giving the Saudi government and local industries more time to adjust and put in place the right steps for a sustainable and commercially attractive economic future.

We previously indicated that China could step in as a financial savior. With around 8.5 million bpd of crude oil imports, which is 2.5 million bdp more than in 2014, the attractiveness of having a stake in Saudi Aramco is huge. Even though an energy diversification program is in place, China’s imports from Saudi Arabia are going to increase. For Beijing, a stake in one of its main suppliers is a very attractive proposition. It will not only lock in Saudi crude oil and petroleum product exports to China but it will also provide some additional political and strategic clout in the heart of the Middle East.

There will, of course, be a few big bankers who will be upset as their billion dollar fee/commission just went up in smoke, but this may give MBS some breathing room – without the undue attention of an IPO –  as he deals with the nation's economic slowdown. However, coming just a few days after the Saudi king's trip to Moscow, the timing of this leaked information seems interesting at the least.

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Qualcomm Files Lawsuit Seeking To Ban Sale And Manufacture Of iPhones In China

Apple experienced a sudden air pocket dip (which was promptly bought) after a Bloomberg report that Qualcomm has filed lawsuits in China seeking to “ban the sale and manufacture of iPhones in the country,” a move which is the chipmaker’s biggest shot at Apple so far in a bitter legal fight between the two companies.

San Diego-based Qualcomm filed the suits in a Beijing intellectual property court claiming patent infringement and seeking injunctive relief, according to Christine Trimble, a company spokeswoman, and hopes to inflict pain on Apple in the world’s largest market for smartphones, cutting off production in a country where most iPhones are made.  Greater China accounted for 22.5% of Apple’s $215.6 billion sales in fiscal 2016.

“Apple employs technologies invented by Qualcomm without paying for them,” Trimble said.

The two companies have lobbed legal shots and lawsuits at each other for years, and are currently months into a legal dispute that centers on Qualcomm’s technology licensing business. While Qualcomm gets the majority of its sales from making phone chips, it pulls in most of its profit from charging fees for patents that cover the fundamentals of all modern phone systems. The suits come at a sensitive time for Apple, which just introduced iPhone 8 and X models which aim at “reasserting leadership in a market that’s steeped in competition from fast-growing Chinese makers.”

Suppliers and assemblers in China are rushing to churn out as many new iPhones as possible ahead of the key holiday season, so any disruptions would likely be costly. As reported yesterday, the iPhone X is already suffering major problems involving its facial recognition technology, which if unresolved could lead to product launch delays.

Some more details from Bloomberg on the latest litigation:

The legal battle started earlier this year when Apple filed an antitrust suit against Qualcomm arguing that the chipmaker’s licensing practices are unfair, and that it abused its position as the biggest supplier of chips in phones. Qualcomm charges a percentage of the price of each handset regardless of whether it includes a chip from the company, and Apple issick of paying those fees.

 

Qualcomm has countered with a patent suit and argued that Cupertino, California-based Apple encouraged regulators from South Korea to the U.S. to take action against it based on false testimony. Earlier this week, Qualcomm was fined a record NT$23.4 billion ($773 million) by Taiwan’s Fair Trade Commission, a ruling the company is appealing. Qualcomm is also asking U.S. authoriti

While on the surface the latest legal salvo may sound serious, the market’s reaction – to this as well as to everything else – has been largely negligible, as BTFD algos rushedin to quickly fill the gap created by triggerhappy sellers.

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Nathan for You Tackles Uber, Finds the Free Market Always Wins

Last night’s episode of Nathan for Youthe reality show where Nathan Fielder tries to help struggling businesses by coming up with zany ideas to reinvigorate them—tackled the effect of Uber on the taxi business.

“Love massive corporations,” Nathan tweeted before last night’s show, “but tonight I make an exception and help cabbies take on Uber.”

(Spoilers ahead.)

The episode revisited Andy, a taxi driver Nathan first tried to help back in 2014. Even then, Andy was struggling to compete with Uber. Nathan’s idea was to find a pregnant woman to give birth in Andy’s cab, reasoning that such publicity would be good for business. It didn’t work.

Three years and countless Uber expansions later, Andy was still chugging along, barely, as a cab driver. Nathan returned to Andy because, a few months after the first episode aired, Uber started a promotion where babies born in the back of Uber rides received Uber onesies. Nathan was convinced the idea was cribbed from his show. Last night’s episode sought revenge.

As in every episode of Nathan for You, Fielder’s plan is needlessly complicated and over-the-top. Nathan and Andy try to form a “sleeper cell” of cab drivers within the Uber network who could sabotage it at any minute. With that leverage, Nathan hoped to force Uber to stop its pregnant woman promotion.

Recruiting cab drivers was easy—most of them resented Uber and blamed it for steep revenue drops. At a group meeting, many of them called Uber “unfair competition,” while a few pushed the myth that Uber was less safe than a taxi. (Given that you know the identity of your Uber driver and they yours before the ride starts, that the ride is tracked on GPS, and that each ride ends with a rating for both driver and passenger, this common claim stretches credulity.)

Nathan ended up signing up more than 60 cabbies. They didn’t know his ultimate aim was to end an Uber pregnancy promotion, just that they were supposed to provide subpar service to lower Uber’s reputation. But at the end of the episode, after Nathan had produced a video of demands for Uber that almost certainly would’ve been flagged to federal authorities, he hit a big road block: Andy had realized that Uber was a viable alternative for him to make a livelihood.

Nathan signed Andy up for Uber for a day to test the system and see which strategies (farts in a bag, Mambo #5 on blast, getting lost) could yield the lowest ratings in the fastest times. Andy performed admirably, earning a series of one-star reviews. But at some point after that, unbeknownst to Nathan, Andy gave Uber a try for real. In his last days as a cabbie, Andy installed a karaoke machine in his taxi, claiming it was the first karaoke cab. He was so sold on Uber he moved it into his personal car, claiming he was now the first karaoke Uber.

Andy asked Nathan not to proceed with their plan, since he was worried it would affect his rating. Nathan reluctantly agreed, deciding that just as telephones replaced telegraphs and cars replaced horse and buggies, Uber was replacing taxis.

“The free market had again chosen a winner,” Nathan said in the wrap-up narration of the show. “The real enemy wasn’t Uber. It was progress.”

Andy’s experience reveals the futility of the taxi industry’s fight against ride-sharing services. There’s nothing inherently unfair about Uber’s competition—if anything, Uber is making the playing field fairer by breaking up the old cartel. And the idea that an Uber is less safe than a taxi is not held by anyone who isn’t already anti-Uber. And so Uber’s share of the marketplace grows.

Uber is not guaranteed to last forever, of course, but ridesharing apps are here to stay. As when the car displaced the horse and buggy, there’s no going back for taxis. Cabbies who hold on to their old business models because they’ve spent money on licenses, medallions, and so forth are falling for the sunken cost fallacy: Instead of making rational decisions based on future values, their decisions are being driven by emotional investments that are hard to abandon. They should take up the motto “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” instead.

It’s worked out well for Andy.

Nathan for You airs Thursdays at 10 p.m. on Comedy Central. You can watch last night’s episode online here.

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By Cutting Off Obamacare’s Insurer Subsides, Trump Might Help More People Get Health Coverage

President Trump announced today that he will stop making payments to health insurers under Obamacare.

The payments, which are called for by statute, began under President Obama. But a federal court ruled last year that because Congress never appropriated funding, making the payments violated the separation of powers and thus was illegal. Obama, however, kept paying them anyway. So, up until now, has Trump. With this move, Trump brings the administration of Obamacare into constitutional compliance.

Supporters of Obamacare have already started complaining that President Trump’s decision amounts to sabotage. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Ct.), for example charged on Twitter this morning that stopping the health care payments “is nuclear grade bananas – a temper tantrum that sets the entire health system on fire.” President Trump, who has threatened to cut off the payments all year in an attempt to create bargaining leverage, almost certainly sees the move as a way of kneecapping the exchanges.

But there’s something funny about the move: In the long run, it might actually increase the number of people with health insurance coverage. It would cost the government more, cause short-term turbulence, and increase the deficit, but after it all shakes out, Obamacare would end up covering even more people. Trump might have just made Obamacare more generous.

The payments in question are known as cost-sharing reduction (CSR) subsidies. They are paid directly to insurers, and they provide extra financial for individuals who make between 100 and 250 percent of the poverty line. Cut those subsidies off, and insurers will try to make up the difference by raising premiums. In a report on the likely effects of cutting off the subsidies earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that premiums would be about 20 percent higher for typical plans purchased under the law.

But the premium hikes won’t directly affect most low-income people, however, because Obamacare’s subsidies increase with premiums, insulating those individuals from higher costs. Instead, this move is likely to raise premiums for people who too much to qualify for subsidies under Obamacare—which is to say, the people who have already been hit hardest by the law’s price hikes. The expansion of the subsidies, meanwhile, gets paid for by taxpayers, increasing the deficit by about $194 billion over the next decade.

What CBO expects to happen, then, is that, as a result of premium increases, higher income people will find Obamacare plans less appealing, and fewer will buy coverage next year, resulting in about 1 million fewer people with health coverage in 2018. But over time, the increased subsidies would actually make coverage more attractive for those with qualifying incomes. By 2026, the CBO projects, about a million more people will have coverage than otherwise would have.

If CBO is right, in other words, Trump’s decision to cut off CSRs will make Obamacare more expensive for taxpayers, but will also result in more people with subsidized coverage over time. Regardless of what Trump intends, that doesn’t exactly sound like sabotage.

The CBO could be wrong, of course. The agency’s coverage estimates have certainly been off before. But the budget office’s analysis is, at minimum, a reminder that the long-term effects of this change could be more complex than many people seem to think. If nothing else, this decision will act as a stress test of CBO’s insurance coverage model.

There are other wrinkles too: As law professor Nicholas Bagley points out, insurers are likely to sue over lost payments, which this year come to about $7 million. The payments were not appropriated by Congress, but they are called for in the statute of the health care law, and insurers may well win. Health insurers have already won suits against the government in related cases involving other subsidies built into the law.

President Trump, meanwhile, still appears to have a worrying view of his own authority with regards to the subsidies. The entire point of the case against them was that the White House, under Obama, did not have the authority to decide whether or not to pay them, because under the Constitution, the power of the purse lies with Congress alone. Either Congress appropriated them, or it didn’t, and in either case the executive branch would have a duty to spend, or not spend, accordingly. Congress didn’t appropriate the money, and therefore neither Obama nor Trump had the authority to make the payments.

If Trump actually believes the payments are unconstitutional, he should have stopped making the payments immediately upon taking office. But he didn’t. He repeatedly dangled the possibility of cutting off the payments, and administration health officials reportedly also hinted that they might continue making them if insurers supported the GOP’s health care legislation this summer.

Trump, in other words, has acted as if the decision to pay or not is the president’s to make. The point of last year’s federal ruling is that it is not.

Yet he still seems to believe that it is. Early this morning, after news broke that he would cut off the payments, he tweeted that he was still willing to bargain. “The Democrats ObamaCare is imploding,” he wrote. “Massive subsidy payments to their pet insurance companies has stopped. Dems should call me to fix!”

This is not Trump’s to “fix.” It is a decision for Congress and Congress alone. Perpetuating the idea that the decision should or can come from the White House helps erode the rule of law.

Cutting off the payments has, for the moment, brought Trump’s into constitutional compliance, but it’s not clear that Trump himself actually understands what that means.

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Democracy Vs. Liberty: Trump Fails To Understand The Founders, As Have All Presidents Since Wilson

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

In the aftermath of World War I, President Woodrow Wilson set out to make the world safe for democracy. Since then, U.S. Presidents have marched to the drumbeat of Wilsonian idealism. Indeed, most U.S. foreign policy is carried out under the pretext — and in some cases perhaps the genuine belief — that America is delivering democracy to the rest of the world. President Trump’s recent pronouncements at the United Nations are neither new nor unusual. 
Most people, including most Americans, would be surprised to learn that the word “democracy” does not appear in the Declaration of Independence (1776) or the Constitution of the United States of America (1789). They would also be shocked to learn the reason for the absence of the word democracy in the founding documents of the U.S.A. Contrary to what propaganda has led the public to believe, America’s Founding Fathers were skeptical and anxious about democracy. They were aware of the evils that accompany a tyranny of the majority. The Framers of the Constitution went to great lengths to ensure that the federal government was not based on the will of the majority and was not, therefore, democratic.
The Constitution divided the federal government into legislative, executive and judicial branches. Each branch was designed to check the power of the other branches. The Founders did not want to rely only on the voters to check government power. As a result, citizens were given very little power to select federal officials.
Neither the President, nor members of the judiciary, nor the Senate were elected by direct popular vote. Only the members of the House of Representatives were directly elected by popular vote. Even in this case, the franchise was quite restricted.
If the Framers of the Constitution did not embrace democracy, what did they adhere to? To a man, the Framers agreed that the purpose of government was to secure citizens in John Locke’s trilogy of the rights to life, liberty and property. The Framers wrote extensively and eloquently. On property, for example, John Adams wrote that “the moment the idea is admitted into society, that property is not as sacred as the laws of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence.”
The Founders’ actions often spoke even louder than their words. Alexander Hamilton, a distinguished lawyer, took on many famous cases out of principle. After the Revolutionary War, the state of New York enacted harsh measures against Loyalists and British subjects. These included the Confiscation Act (1779), the Citation Act (1782) and the Trespass Act (1783). All involved the taking of property. In Hamilton’s view, these Acts illustrated the inherent difference between democracy and the law. Even though the Acts were widely popular, they flouted fundamental principles of property law. Hamilton carried his views into action and successfully defended — in the face of enormous public hostility — those who had property taken under these three New York state statutes.
The Constitution was designed to further the cause of liberty, not democracy. To do that, the Constitution protected individuals’ rights from the government, as well as from their fellow citizens. To that end, the Constitution laid down clear, unequivocal and enforceable rules to protect individuals’ rights. In consequence, the government’s scope and scale were strictly limited. Economic liberty, which is a precondition for growth and prosperity, was enshrined in the Constitution.
After European settlement, America consisted of thirteen English colonies. They benefited from a rather light administration from London and salutary neglect. This contrasted with the French colonies, which were controlled from Paris, and the Spanish colonies, which had entire institutional superstructures imposed from Spain.
Everything did not go well in the American colonies, however. One major colonial problem centered on money. Officially, British silver coins were the coin of the realm in America. But there were problems. The Navigation Acts prohibited the export of silver coins from England. There was also a prohibition against any of the colonies establishing mints. As a result, there was an endemic shortage of silver coins in the colonies. To fill this large gap, bills of credit were issued and circulated freely during the first half of the eighteenth century.
This resulted in high inflation, which forced most of the colonies to abandon fixed exchange rates and a specie standard. Things finally deteriorated to such an extent that the British Board of Trade imposed the Currency Acts of 1751 and 1764. These prohibited the issuance and use of bills of credit not fully backed by specie. The prohibitions against paper money created an enormous source of resentment in the colonies. Coupled with the better-known Stamp Act of 1765, the prohibitions on bills of credit set the stage for the Declaration of Independence and the ensuing Revolutionary War.
The Revolutionary War added to America’s money problems. The best estimates place the cost of the Revolutionary War at about 15 to 20 percent of the colonies’ GNP. Roughly 85 percent of it was financed with fiat money. During the 1775-80 period, annual inflation was about 65 percent. Subsequently — and prior to the Constitutional Convention (1787) — the economic situation was one in which individual states increased taxes and regulations dramatically and money remained unstable. In addition, there was a great deal of political corruption and scandal. And to top it off, the economy was in a general slump which was punctuated by the crisis of 1787.
As a reaction to the overall political-economic situation, the Constitutional Convention convened in 1787 in Philadelphia. In due course, the Constitution was crafted and ratified in 1789. It is a short, clear, intelligible document. The Constitution’s preamble contains only 52 words which are followed by seven short articles and ten amendments known as the Bill of Rights (1791).
The original Constitution established the rule of law and limited government. It is noteworthy that about 20 percent of the Constitution itemizes things that the federal and state governments may not do, while only 10 percent of the Constitution is concerned with positive grants of power. In total, the legitimate powers granted by the Constitution were less than those that had existed. The bulk of the Constitution — about 70 percent — addresses the Framers’ conception of their main task: to bring the United States and its government under the rule of law.
The Constitution is primarily a structural and procedural document that itemizes who is to exercise power and how they are to exercise it. A great deal of stress is placed on the separation of powers and the checks and balances in the system. These were not a Cartesian construct or formula aimed at social engineering, but a shield to protect the people from the government. In short, the Constitution was designed to govern the government, not the people.
The Bill of Rights establishes the rights of the people against infringements by the State. The only thing that the citizens can demand from the State, under the Bill of Rights, is for a trial by a jury. The rest of the citizens’ rights are protections from the State. For roughly a century after the Constitution was ratified, private property, contracts and free internal trade within the United States were sacred. The scope and scale of the government remained very constrained. All this was very consistent with what was understood to be liberty.
A remark about the Framers and the public is in order. There were 55 Framers and 35 had attended college. The college entry standards in those days were very high and strict. At the age of 14 or 15, the normal college entry age, students were required to be fluent in both Latin and Greek and proficient in the Classics. They were skilled at the art of rhetoric and were keenly aware of the necessity of garnering public support for their constitutional project. For the Framers, policies needed to be developed from the bottom up.
At the time, Americans were literate and well informed, via pamphlets and manuscripts, about the political debates of the day. There were four times as many newspapers in the United States as there were in France, which was the center of continental thinking and debate on many constitutional and philosophic matters. The Federalist Papers were published in 1787 and 1788 in New York City’s Independent Journal, an ordinary newspaper. These important essays — written under pseudonyms by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay — were of very high quality and set the stage for the Constitutional Convention and the resulting product. In passing, it is worth mentioning that Hamilton organized this project, wrote most of the essays, and of all the Founding Fathers, performed most of the intellectual work for the least historical credit. That said, two notable economists have given Hamilton his due. Lionel Robbins thought the Federalist Papers were “the best book on political science and its broad practical aspects written in the last thousand years.” And if that were not enough, Milton Friedman wrote in 1973 that Federalist Paper 15, written by Hamilton, “contains a more cogent analysis of the European Common Market than any I have seen from the pen of a modern writer.”
After the Constitution was ratified and George Washington was elected President, the new federal government lacked credibility. Public finances hung like a threatening cloud over the government. Recall that paper money and debt were innovations of the colonial era, and that once the Revolutionary War began, Americans used these innovations to the maximum. As a result, the United States was born in a sea of debt. A majority of the public favored a debt default. Alexander Hamilton, acting as Washington’s Secretary of the Treasury, was firmly against default. As a matter of principle, he argued that the sanctity of contracts was the foundation of all morality. And as a practical matter, Hamilton argued that good government depended on its ability to fulfill its promises.
Hamilton won the argument and set about digging the country out of its financial debacle. Among other things, Hamilton was — what would today be called — a first-class financial engineer. He established a federal sinking fund to finance the Revolutionary War debt. He also engineered a large debt swap in which the debts of individual states were assumed by the newly created federal government. By August 1791, federal bonds sold above par in Europe, and by 1795, all foreign debts had been paid off. Hamilton’s solution for America’s debt problem provided the country with a credibility and confidence shock.
The state of economic affairs in the United States, roughly until World War I, was in the spirit of the Constitution. The economy flourished, with large increases in labor and capital inputs as well as strong productivity growth. There was, of course, one near fatal interruption during this period: the Civil War. The war consumed 15 to 20 percent of GNP, about the same proportion as during the Revolutionary War. War finance was somewhat similar in the Confederacy (the South) as it was during the Revolutionary War. About 60 percent of the financing for the southern effort was paper money. The North also resorted to fiat money financing, but at only a 13 percent rate. Consequently, there was an inflationary surge.
In addition to the major disruption caused by the Civil War, it is worth mentioning one major anomaly in the U.S. economy: lands owned by the federal, as well as state and local, governments.
Alexander Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury, wanted to sell the public lands as fast as possible. This did not happen. In consequence, the government still owns a huge amount of real estate. Its surface area is about six times larger than the total area of France. This is a stateowned enterprise. As you might expect, it is also unproductive. Detailed studies of SOE lands indicate that they are only about 25-30 percent as productive as comparable private ones.
America’s SOE lands have been the center of repeated debates about the free market system in the United States. Indeed, the American Economic Association put itself at the center of one of these debates. One, possibly the major, motivation for establishing the American Economic Association was as a protest against laissez-faire attitudes in the United States. Not surprisingly, the May 1885 American Economic Review contains three papers justifying the retention of government-owned timberlands!
On the eve of World War I, government expenditures were less than 2 percent of GNP and 99 percent of the population paid no income tax. The income tax had just been introduced, but the top rate was only 7 percent and applied to incomes exceeding $500,000. The federal government had around 400,000 employees, less than 1 percent of the labor force. About 165,000 troops were on active duty. No federal regulations of capital or labor markets existed. Agricultural production and distribution were also unregulated.
There was no minimum wage rate and no social security. One area where there was a rather aggressive interference in the economy concerned the rates and tariffs that the railroads charged. Antitrust was also strong.
The conflagration of World War I marks a violent break with the letter and spirit of the Constitution. Property rights were suspended on a large scale. There were wide-scale nationalizations of rail, telephone, telegraph and to a lesser degree ocean shipping. Over 100 manufacturing plants were nationalized. The government got involved in labor-management relations under the Adams Act in 1916. Conscription was instituted. The Espionage Act was passed in 1917. The Sedition Act of 1918 imposed penalties for anti-government expression, subverting the Bill of Rights. The novelist, Upton Sinclair was actually arrested for reading the Bill of Rights and Roger Baldwin, one of the founders of the American Civil Liberties Union, was arrested for reading the Constitution. President Woodrow Wilson accomplished all this under emergency powers granted to him by Congress in 1916.
Much of this anti-Constitutional apparatus was scrapped after World War I. However, residues remained and eventually resurfaced. All it took were other national emergencies — the Great Depression, World War II, the Vietnam War, and so on. With each, laws were enacted, bureaus created and the budgets enlarged. In many cases, these changes turned out to be permanent. The result is that crises acted as a ratchet, shifting the trend line of government size and scope up to a higher level.
It comes as no surprise that governments spend more money and regulate more actively during crises — wars and economic bailouts are expensive and complicated. But a more active government also attracts opportunists, who perceive that a national emergency can serve as a useful pretext for achieving their own objectives.
The U.S. and other countries seem no more aware of this today than they were in the past. And yet history has provided many examples to illustrate how damaging it is. Take the Great Depression. At that time, the organized farm lobbies, having sought subsidies for decades, took advantage of the crisis to pass a sweeping rescue package, the Agricultural Adjustment Act, whose title declared it to be “an act to relieve the existing national economic emergency.”
Almost 80 years later, the farmers are still sucking money from the rest of society and agricultural policy has been enlarged to satisfy a variety of other interest groups, including conservationists, nutritionists and friends of the Third World. Then, during World War II, when government accounted for nearly half the U.S. GDP, virtually every interest group tried to tap into the vastly enlarged government budget. Even bureaus seemingly remote from the war effort, such as the Department of the Interior (which is in charge of government lands and natural resources), claimed to be performing “essential war work” and to be entitled to bigger budgets and more personnel.
Within the U.S. government, the war on terrorism has given cover to a multitude of parochial opportunists, whose proposals range from bailing out the airlines to nationalizing vaccine production. As a result, former President George W. Bush — a so-called conservative — ushered in a record-setting expansion of government. This trend continued with the left-of-center President Obama. And now, populist President Trump promises more of the same. 
What lessons can we learn? First, “democracy” and “freedom” are not interchangeable words. Second, only the first century of the American experience represents a standard for freedom. Expanding democracy is a slogan which requires great caution. It can easily result in elected tyranny. Freedom is the concept. Our challenge is to persuade every citizen that benefits flow from freedom’s practical applications. Freedom might then flourish in very diverse and unexpected forms in different parts of the world.

via http://ift.tt/2zjpQpH Steve H. Hanke

Bank of America: “This Is The Most Consensus Trade In The World”

One week ago, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett laid out his reasoning for why a market correction is imminent:

  • Global stock market cap up a massive $18.5tn (= US GDP) since Feb’16 lows
  • 3P’s (Positioning, Profits, Policy) thus closer to peak than trough: BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator was 0 in Feb’16, now 6.9; global EPS growth was -6% YoY in early- 2016, now 14% YoY; $2.0tn of asset purchases by central banks YTD but Fed & ECB will taper next 6 months
  • Q4 “top” in equities and credit driven by:
    • a. pricing-in of US tax reform (= peak Policy),
    • b. rise in MOVE index (= peak Positioning),
    • c. rally in oil + trough in Chinese RMB + upgrades to global GDP (= peak Profits)
  • Tax reform = “peak policy” = buy rumor, sell fact; passage of reform or cuts = quicker Fed balance sheet reduction + less share buybacks as capex accelerates; US equities lose 2 big tailwinds next year (since 2009 lows S&P equity market cap up $15.3tn, Fed’s balance sheet up $4.5tn, share buybacks up $3.5tn)
  • Big jump in the MOVE index of US Treasury market volatility (i.e. “bond shock”) catalyst for cross-asset volatility (QE has neutered impact of bond volatility on equity prices but the negative correlation will return as monetary policy normalizes)

Fast forward to today when… nothing at all has happened, again: stocks are at new all time highs, the VIX is back to a whisker above 8, junk bonds issued by “emerging” countries with unpronouncable names are 5x oversubscribed, and complacency abounds despite the world being one tweet away from nuclear war.

There are two discrete reasons for this:

The first is that the great rotation – of bagholders – is in its final stretch as institutions dump in near record volume to retail investors. According to EPFR data cited by BofA, last week saw a “big” $11.6 billion in inflows to equities (largest since Jun’17), as well as $5.5bn into bonds, $0.4bn into gold.  One caveat: it wasn’t just institutions selling to retail (ie. the active to passive rotation) as last week also saw the first inflow into active funds after 10 weeks of outflows, amounting to $2 billion (chart 2) although Passive still remains king, with $9.6 billion into ETFs.

The second reason is that contrary to popular opinions, fighting the Fed is not only accepted, but extremely profitable. In fact, as Hartnett notes, the “Most Consensus Trade in the Worldright now is “no fear of the Fed…Fed dots to 2019 = 2.7% vs 1.8% market-implied Fed Funds rate.” The saying may go “don’t fight the Fed” but fighting the Fed’s dots has been the most profitable trade for the past 5 years.

To Hartnett this “lack of fear in the Fed” means that the Bubble in Yield (and stocks) will continue until investors, via inflation, begin to fear the Fed (& ECB…). Judging by bond yields, this is not happening: $0.98tn inflows into IG+EM debt funds past 10 years (Chart 3); this week sees 42nd consecutive week of IG bond fund inflows; inflows to EM debt funds 37 of past 38 weeks.

As an example of this fear manifesting itself, the BofA strategist reminds us of 1994: “Most obvious catalyst for sell-off is wage/inflation data that brings back “fear of Fed” in 1994-redux (“payroll” shock…Fed hikes 50bps…yields & MOVE index soared…risk assets tanked…until Orange County/Mexico defaults caused Fed to stop tightening – Chart 4); Sept 0.5% MoM AHE = stronger wage growth

However, it’s not just a sudden burst of inflation that can upset the cart, and according to BofA there are two other 11th hour catalysts that can lead to the “Humpty Dumpty scenario.” Hartnett calls them “Tick Tocks” and they are both positioning related: in the first case, the BofA “Bull and Bear” indicator is just shy of hitting a “sell signal.” This would be notable as the indicator’s hit ratio is flawless, resulting in a selloff on 11 out of 11 previous cases, as follows:

  • Tick-tock I: BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator rises to 7.4 on more bullish positioning in each of the 5 components; drop in FMS cash next week to 4.4% + acceleration of current $5bn flows a week to HY +  equity funds to >$10bn would trigger B&B “sell” signal; note since 2001 there have been 11 BB “sell signals”; hit ratio = 11/11; median MSCI ACWI losses thereafter 5.9% (1-month), 8.5% (2-month), 12.0% (3-month)

The second “tick tock” reason is simpler: investors are about to run out of cash, which may come as a surprise to all those who still believe the “money on the sidelines” falacy.

  • Tick-tock II: Global Wealth Management private client equity allocation up to 60.6%, just shy of 63% all-time high; GWIM cash falls to new low of 10.3%

via http://ift.tt/2yfgwFv Tyler Durden

Buchanan Asks “Is Trump The Heir To Reagan?”

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

Three decades ago, as communications director in the White House, I set up an interview for Bill Rusher of National Review.

Among his first questions to President Reagan was to ask him to assess the political importance of Barry Goldwater. Said Reagan, “I guess you could call him the John the Baptist of our movement.”

I resisted the temptation to lean in and ask, “Sir, if Barry Goldwater is John the Baptist, who would that make you?”

What brings the moment back is Laura Ingraham’s new book: “Billionaire at the Barricades: The Populist Revolution from Reagan to Trump.Thesis: Donald Trump is a conservative populist and direct descendant and rightful heir to Ronald Reagan.

To never-Trumpers this is pure blasphemy. Yet the similarities are there.

Both men were outsiders, and neither a career politician. Raised Democratic, Reagan had been a Hollywood actor, union leader and voice of GE, before running for governor of California.

Trump is out of Queens, a builder-businessman in a Democratic city whose Republican credentials were suspect at best when he rode down that elevator at Trump Tower. Both took on the Republican establishment of their day, and humiliated it.

Among the signature issues of Trumpian populism is economic nationalism, a new trade policy designed to prosper Americans first.

Reagan preached free trade, but when Harley-Davidson was in danger of going under because of Japanese dumping of big bikes, he slammed a 50 percent tariff on Japanese motorcycles. Though a free trader by philosophy, Reagan was at heart an economic patriot.

He accepted an amnesty written by Congress for 3 million people in the country illegally, but Reagan also warned prophetically that a country that can’t control its borders isn’t really a country any more.

Reagan and Trump both embraced the Eisenhower doctrine of “peace through strength.” And, like Ike, both built up the military.

Both also believed in cutting tax rates to stimulate the economy and balance the federal budget through rising revenues rather than cutting programs like Medicare and Social Security.

Both believed in engaging with the superpower rival of the day – the Soviet Union in Reagan’s day, Russia and China in Trump’s time.

And both were regarded in this capital city with a cosmopolitan condescension bordering on contempt. “An amiable dunce” said a Great Society Democrat of Reagan.

The awesome victories Reagan rolled up, a 44-state landslide in 1980 and a 49-state landslide in 1984, induced some second thoughts among Beltway elites about whether they truly spoke for America. Trump’s sweep of the primaries and startling triumph in the Electoral College caused the same consternation.

However, as the Great Depression, New Deal and World War II represented a continental divide in history between what came before and what came after, so, too, did the end of the Cold War and the Reagan era.

As Ingraham writes, Trumpism is rooted as much in the populist-nationalist campaigns of the 1990s, and post-Cold War issues as economic patriotism, border security, immigration control and “America First,” as it is in the Reaganite issues of the 1980s.

Which bring us to the present, with our billionaire president, indeed, at the barricades.

The differences between Trump in his first year and Reagan in 1981 are stark. Reagan had won a landslide. The attempt on his life in April and the grace with which he conducted himself had earned him a place in the hearts of his countrymen. He not only showed spine in giving the air traffic controllers 48 hours to get back to work, and then discharging them when they defied him, he enacted the largest tax cut in U.S. history with the aid of boll weevil Democrats in the House.

Coming up on one year since his election, Trump is besieged by a hostile press and united Democratic Party. This city hates him. While his executive actions are impressive, his legislative accomplishments are not. His approval ratings have lingered in the mid-30s. He has lost half a dozen senior members of his original White House staff, clashed openly with his own Cabinet and is at war with GOP leaders on the Hill.

Moreover, we seem close to war with North Korea that would be no cakewalk. And the president appears determined to tear up the Obama nuclear deal with Iran that his own national security team believes is in the national interest.

Reagan was, as Trump claimed to be, an anti-interventionist. Reagan had no wish to be a war president. His dream was to rid the world of nuclear weapons. This does not sound like Trump in October 2017.

Steve Bannon may see the 25th Amendment, where a Cabinet majority may depose a president, as the great threat to Trump.

But it is far more likely that a major war would do for the Trump presidency and his place in history what it did for Presidents Wilson, Truman, LBJ and George W. Bush.

via http://ift.tt/2hFVWDN Tyler Durden