Earthquake Detected Near North Korea Nuclear Test Site, USGS Can’t Confirm If “Natural Or Man-Made”

The USGS reports that a magnitude 2.9 earthquake was reported in North korea, 23km NE of Sungjibaegam, close to where the country conducts nuclear tests.

The temblor was reported at 01:41:08 / 1:41 am (local time epicenter). The epicenter was at a depth of 5 km (3 miles).

While initial reports suggest that the quake was not caused by a nuclear test, the USGS has said it is unable to conifirm, yet, whether the quake was natural or man made.

  • USGS CAN’T CONFIRM WHETHER N. KOREA QUAKE NATURAL OR MAN-MADE

Until there is confirmation that this was a natural aftershock, the market is not taking any chances, and the USDJPY has sold off notably on the report. As discussed previously, officials have been expecting the North to do something provocative surrounding either its national holiday on October 10 or the start of the Chinese Party Plenum next week. .

Developing.

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What Spending On ‘Vice’ Really Says About Retail Sales

Authored by Andrew Zatlin via MoneyballEconomics.com,

Total Retail Spend Grows On Hurricane-Linked Demand

First, I want to point out that the two hurricanes that have devastated Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico have been horrible.

Hundreds of thousands, if not millions of peoples’ lives were affected. And their circumstances have changed dramatically over these past couple months.

BUT… these hurricanes were a positive for economists looking for a boost in spending.

These hurricanes disrupted routine spending… but boosted spending on autos (car/truck replacement), building materials (home repair) and gas prices (prices surged).

Vice Index Now Points To Lower Spending

Recent downward revisions to retail data confirms that the Vice Index correctly predicted a pullback in spending growth.  

  • Trend: The latest data points to a near-term bottom in the 4Q.
  • September: August Retail (ex-Autos/Gas) spending came in at 3.3% y/y.  Further erosion means September will dip to 3.1%

Wage Growth Levels Off On Improved Comps

The collapse in 2H 2016 compensation growth will boost growth rates through 2017.

A similar pattern is visible in the Vice Index chart above.

Accompanying the slide in compensation growth is a similar slowdown in the savings rate.

It’s getting harder to squeeze more spending from the consumer. Their savings are down. They don’t have as much money to spend leisurely as they used to.

National Retail Federation Predicts Holiday Spending Growth

Per the NRF, a trick of the calendar will pull in spending and prevent the spending rate from falling below last year’s.  

Weekend days are always a bigger shopping day, regardless of the season. And this year the holiday period gets to include an extra one. Otherwise the spending rate would fall below last year’s.

That’s part of the softness is being echoed in the Vice Index data. The other part is that the NRF notes the weakness in the lower income segment. No doubt the strong stock market and continued job market strength will underpin middle and upper income spending.  But will it be enough to offset the broader weakness?

Vice Index says no.

Gambling Outlook – Still On A Losing Streak

Middle America is under financial stress.

Over the past year, US casinos (ex-Vegas) have enjoyed only 1 month of positive growth.

Las Vegas is doing a bit better thanks to the return of Chinese gamblers: YTD gaming revenues are up 3.5%.

This reflects the bifurcated US economy: middle America is pulling back on frivolous activities while upper income consumers continue to spend.

(NOTE: Will higher spending by the 1% be enough to offset a spending pullback by the bottom 99%? We’ll have to find out…)

Is Cannabis Replacing Beer?

Beer consumption fell in 2016 for the first time since 2011 (per IWSR).

Several reasons are possible:

  • Changes in drinking habits:  Millenials are socializing differently: it’s popular to hang out at home with friends and “Netflix and chill.”  And that’s driving a shift: drinking at bars (on-premise) has dropped while drinking at home (off-premise) has grown.
  • Shifts in taste: Beer is down, but distilled alcohol is up.  That’s largely from new styles of tequila and bourbons being released, and the big marketing campaigns pushing them.

But maybe cannabis legalization is also playing a role.

Go back to the Netflix-and-chill socialization.  That’s very pot friendly too.

A survey in March 2017 by Cannabiz found that 27% of beer drinkers would switch to cannabis when/if it was legal.  

In 2016 Cowen & Company noted that beer consumption dropped the most in precisely the States where pot was legalized: Oregon, Washington, and Colorado. Denver saw a 6% drop in beer consumption.

KEY TAKEAWAY

Major bellwether industries for the retail consumer are showing signs of distress. The upcoming holiday season will help… but most consumers are already maxed out. They can’t NOT buy their friends and family holiday presents. After that… who knows when they’ll make those big purchases again.

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One More Trader Capitulates: “It’s A Bubble, Buy It”

"The world is full of bubbles," warns former fund manager Richard Breslow but that shouldn't stop you from buying 'em. In the latest capitulation of a former realist, Breslow's confessional clarifies what many, many market participants clearly believe (and what Goldman called "unusually bullish"), "The reality is, you don’t have to like equities to buy them. And that will remain true until it isn’t. For now, beauty is in the eyes of the holder."

"Almost there. S&P 500 price to sales ratio is just 4% from March 2000 peak."

Via Bloomberg,

Another day, another set of record prices in global equity markets. But trust me, they aren’t doing it with the sole purpose of vexing you. How they are trading is logical and explainable. And I’m not saying that to irritate you either. It’s just that you can’t look at the current valuations and then reread Graham and Dodd in hopes of a simple explanation.

To make matters worse for those who don’t trust this market, you needn’t be a hopeless optimist, oblivious to geopolitics, overly complacent nor stupid to keep piling on.

 

Even allowing that corrections are, of course, inevitable, you can’t accurately predict when they’re going to happen.

 

The most simple explanation will also be the least satisfying. The market keeps going up and quant models and passive index funds don’t care why, just that it is. And they choose to or are forced to keep participating. Breadth and volume and all other sorts of arbitrary measures come and go into focus over time. But as factors in a model they eventually get downgraded and become part of the error function. Putting continued emphasis on them is a subjective decision not based on current statistical proof–in today’s world. Models understand what a definition of a trend is, they aren’t at all bothered by measures claiming overly bought or sold levels.

 

And this is especially important because if there is one additional characteristic that separates this trend from many of those in the past, is it isn’t driven by get-rich quick schemes. Quite the opposite. If it were, many fewer people would suffer such pain every time we go higher. This is classic supply and demand.

 

Sovereign wealth funds have been gobbling up stocks at an increasing rate. They are classic long-term, buy-and-hold investors. So each quarter when you see their reported equity holdings bulge some more that represents shares not available for you to take off their hands. Add in stock buybacks and comfort with added leverage at these silly interest rate levels and you realize that the percentage of “hot money” to the overall size of the market continues to shrink.

 

Even if you do think the world is full of bubbles, fund managers have to pick what passes for relative value in this environment. You could talk yourself into believing the equity story whether you hate or love bonds. That’s the beauty of healthy debate. Or fishing for the answer you want. Same for credit.

 

And when charging fees, you have to try to be invested. A phenomenon that is being exacerbated by the shift to passive versus active funds. A rotation that is only accelerating and now, with added regulatory encouragement as MiFID II approaches.

Breslow concludes by succcinctly summing the status quo up perfectly:

"The reality is, you don’t have to like equities to buy them. And that will remain true until it isn’t. For now, beauty is in the eyes of the holder"

But it's not like some investors aren't worried…

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There Aren’t Enough Beds in This Virginia Jail for All the Women Caught in Heroin and Human Trafficking Dragnets

Even as the waning of the war on weed makes a small dent in mass incarceration, American cops and prosecutors are rushing to restore jail and prison populations with new nonviolent vice offenders. One chilling case study can be found in Henrico County, Virginia, where the number of female inmates at the county jail has more than doubled in the past year, a leap largely due to prostitution and opioid arrests. The place is so overcrowded that a common room has been converted to an area where 50 or more women sleep on cots or slim mattresses on the floor.

“Our female population skyrocketed,” Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade told the Ronoake Times. “We don’t have enough space for them.”

What’s behind this XX-chromosome crime wave? It’s not an onslaught of ornery lady crooks; it’s an intensifying police crackdown on sex workers and on people with drug dependence issues. Harsh mandatory sentencing policies may also play a role.

Patricia O’Bannon, chair of the county Board of Supervisors, says the problem stems from the Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney’s overreliance on jail for people who need mental-health or drug-abuse treatment. But Michael Feinmel, who prosecutes drug- and prostitution-related cases for the county, claims that treatment resources are too scant and jail is the only option—at least it gets people off the streets.

Feinmel’s justification implies that cops have no choice but to make all these prostitution and drug arrests—that these people are a nuisance to the public, or have no homes and anywhere else to go, or pose an immediate danger to themselves. But this isn’t true.

Henrico County vice cops go out of their way to arrest these women, or at least the ones booked for prostitution. They troll online ads, reach out to sex workers pretending to be customers, and rent rooms at local motels where they can lure these women in order to arrest them. Or they travel to hotel rooms that women have rented and then arrest them for “keeping a bawdy place.”

They do this under the guise of fighting “human trafficking,” but it’s just punishing women who sell sex. The “victims” are arrested and get to sleep on slim mattresses on the cement floor of an overcrowded jail where such basic necessities as toilet paper and menstrual pads are limited.

From 2014 through 2016, Henrico County Jail averaged just 118 to 124 female inmates per day. So far, 2017 has seen more than twice that. The jail’s average female population per day this year so far has been 268—in a facility that only has 239 beds dedicated for women. Nearly 70 of of the inmates have been pregnant.

“I think judges used to be more lenient on females than males,” the sheriff mused to NBC 12 Richmond, “but I think with more mandatory sentences and things, it’s created an increase in [the female] population.”

He said that more beds are being ordered (a step that has apparently taken 10 months of overcrowding to trigger). For now, apparently, converting the jail’s dayroom into a communal sleeping area must do.

Last year, former FBI director James Comeny visited Henrico County to talk about opioid addiction. “We cannot arrest our way out of this problem,” Comey said at the time. Evidently, Henrico County cops disagree.

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Cyrus Vance Is a Product of Dangerous One-Party Rule

It’s been a bad month for Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance. First there were reports that he declined to indict Ivanka Trump and her brother Donald Jr. for allegedly misleading prospective real estate buyers, but not til after Vance had received a large donation from Donald Sr.’s lawyer. Then Vance turned out to have had the same damning audio recording of Harvey Weinstein admitting to groping a woman’s breasts that The New Yorker published Tuesday, yet he declined to pursue the case.

The Manhattan DA’s office has more than 800 investigators on its payroll and took in more than $12 billion from asset forfeiture since 2009. It was more than capable of doing the work that Ronan Farrow did for The New Yorker, but it didn’t.

In a normal election, this kind of two-punch October Surprise would be more enough to sink a candidate. But New York City doesn’t have normal elections. Republicans offer largely token opposition in citywide races, and most of the borough-wide races (save for Staten Island) are the same way.

While New York City allows “fusion tickets,” where a candidate runs on the line of more than one party, no third party has taken advantage of this recently to mount a credible challenge to Democratic rule.

This is the result: A district attorney faces serious questions about his ethics and his prosecutorial decisions, in a case that’s getting massive attention in the news cycle, yet he has little fear of it costing him his job at the ballot box in a few weeks. (A write-in challenger is now trying to mount an effort against Vance, but the task seems close to impossible.)

Last year Vance’s office handled 80,000 cases, according to its annual report. That includes 67,246 arrests for misdemeanors and violations—touted as a victory because it represented a 27 percent drop from 2010, when there were 92,585 arrests for misdemeanors and violations.

The DA’s office also touted its work on “crimes against women.” Needless to say, that didn’t mean investigating powerful men who abuse their positions; it meant analyzing “online advertisements placed by prostitution services, which enables prosecutors to identify patterns which lead to the discovery of both victims and perpetrators of human trafficking.”

Cyrus Vance was first elected in 2009. He ran against a number of other candidates in that year’s Democratic primary, but he has not faced any real opponents since then. That kind of lack of opposition makes accountability exceedingly difficult. Vance’s 2016 annual report insisted he was committed to criminal justice reform, but without the pressures and checks of competitive politics, that’s hard to verify.

Vance’s strong job security also undermines his excuses for taking money from lawyers tied to subjects of his investigations. He has denied any quid pro quo, insisting the contributions were “unfortunately, a part of running for office.” But they’re not. Even in competitive races, it’s morally bankrupt to argue that you have to take money from everyone because your opponent is raising money too. When an incumbent faces no serious opposition, it’s beyond preposterous.

But why would Vance worry about saying something patently ridiculous? It’s not like New Yorkers have any other choice.

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Twitter Labels Ben Affleck “Buttman” After Women Accuse Him Of Groping Them

Nearly two dozen women have accused Harvey Weinstein of crimes ranging from sexual harassment to groping and even rape in a scandal that’s upended the entertainment industry’s power structure and threatening to tarnish the reputations of several other public figures, including politicians like Manhattan Attorney General Cyrus Vance Jr., who killed an investigation into Weinstein back in 2015.

But of all the Hollywood figures who’ve been criticized for tacitly condoning Weinstein’s behavior, none have sustained quite as much reputational damage as Ben Affleck, who’s been branded as a hypocrite by Weinstein accuser Rose McGowan for his half-hearted condemnation of Weinstein’s actions.

Soon after Weinstein accused Affleck of lying in a statement disavowing Weinstein, twitter users brought up a 2003 incident where Affleck appeared to grope actress Hilarie Burton live on camera, which in turn prompted several women to come forward to allege that Affleck groped them during a party years ago.

Twitter users gleefully responded by branding Affleck with a hilarious new epithet: The Buttman.

Affleck famously played Batman in a widely panned “Batman vs. Superman.”

Affleck has apologized to Burton…

Then the other women came forward.

 

 

 

 

Then Buttman was born…

 

Affeck has yet to respond to the groping accusations.

…But just in case you weren’t an avid watcher of TRL back in 2003


 

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Curve Flattens After Blistering 30Y Auction Stops Through, Highest Bid To Cover In Two Years

After yesterday’s stellar 10Y auction, today at 1pm the Treasury sold the last of three weekly auctions, by offering $12 billion in 30Y paper to eager buyers. And eager they were, with the high yield of 2.870% stopping through the When Issued 2.874% by 0.4 bps. This was the biggest strop through on a 30Y auction going back to October 2016.

It wasn’t just the stop out that was strong, but the Bid to Cover as well, which at 2.530 was the highest going all the way back to September 2015. The internals were similary impressive, with Indirects taking down 62.8%, up from 58.8% in September, and on top of the 6 month average of 62.4%. Directs ended up with 10.6%, the highest award since March, higher than the 6.1% average, while Dealers were left holding 26.6% of the auction, the lowest dealer takedown since March, suggesting once again that even a modest increase in yields and foreign duration seekers crawl out of the woorwork and buy any US paper they can find.

Overall, while not a strong as yesterday’s 10Y auction, there were blistering demand for today’s last weekly auction, which was observed earlier courtesy of the 5s30s which has been flattening all day, sending the yield curve to the flattest in years.

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Anti-Trump Republicans Need to Re-Examine Their Own Reckless Foreign Policy

Bob Corker ||| CSPANThere will come a day, hard as it is to visualize right now, when Donald Trump will no longer be president. When we make it to that finish line, hopefully without any intervening mushroom clouds or global cataclysms, will we have decisively avoided what Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tennessee) recently warned might be “World War III“?

Not so fast, I argue in today’s L.A. Times. Corker, while more of a self-styled “realist” in comparison to uberhawkish fellow Trump apostate Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona), nonetheless has wanted to arm the Ukranians, “get Assad,” and make the usual terrible Republican sports metaphors about life-and-death foreign policy decisions. “More often than not,” Corker complained about Barack Obama in 2014, “the president doesn’t hit singles and doubles; he just balks.”

There is a default interventionism in both Washington and the media, and it seems to be concentrated extra hard among Trump’s most strident GOP critics, such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich. And if you don’t think Republicans have been saying crazy things about using “the threat of extinction” against North Korea for a good quarter century, you haven’t been paying attention. From the column:

Conservative NeverTrumpers — or should we call them the Unfitters since the man’s in office?— may be broadly correct about the president’s erratic temperament, shoddy management and aggressive incoherence on the world stage. But too many lack any sense of self-awareness, let alone regret, about how their foreign policy preferences have contributed to the global instability Trump is exacerbating. […]

The anti-Trump interventionists may be right about the unique dangers this president poses, not just through his chaotic foreign policy but also his retrograde 19th century ideas about trade and immigration. But for decades there has been a default Washington posture of aggressive meddling into the whole world’s affairs, and downright belligerence toward many rogue states. Trump won’t be around forever, but until that foreign policy tradition is confronted and questioned anew, the dangers he poses will live on.

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Trump Signs Executive Order To Begin Unwinding Obamacare

Having failed to repeal (or replace) Obamacare in the Congress on three separate occasions, on Thursday morning Trump took matters into his own hands, when as previewed last night, the President signed an executive order to begin the process of unwinding Obamacare, paving the way for sweeping changes to health-insurance regulations that would allow an expansion of less-comprehensive health plans.

“We’ve been hearing about the disaster of Obamacare for so long,” Trump said in signing the order at a White House ceremony. “For a long time, I’ve been hearing repeal, replace, repeal, replace.”

He then said that the order is “starting that process” to repeal ObamaCare. It will be the “first steps to providing millions of Americans with ObamaCare relief.”

The order will direct federal agencies to take actions aimed at providing lower-cost options and fostering competition in the individual insurance markets, according to the Wall Street Journal. The specific steps included in the order will represent only the first moves in his White House’s effort to strike parts of the law, the officials said adding that the order is just the beginning of the administration’s actions related to the health law. Furthermore, it will be months, rather than weeks, for even the most simple changes in the executive order to take effect, and the order leaves key details to the Labor Department, in particular, to determine after a formal rule-making process, including the solicitation of public comment.

While Trump’s order seeks to expand the ability of small businesses and other groups to band together to buy health insurance through what are known as association health plans (AHPs), and also lifts limits on short-term health insurance plans, in some ways the order’s impact remains a mystery as the full extent of the effects will not be immediately clear. The executive order largely does not make changes itself; rather it directs agencies to issue new regulations or guidance. Those new rules will go through a notice and comment period that could take months, officials said.

“The policies outlined in the executive order are the beginning of the actions the administration will take to provide relief to people harmed by Obamacare,” said Andrew Bremberg, director of the administration’s domestic policy council, on a call with reporters earlier Thursday. “You should expect additional actions coming from the administration in months to come.”

Critics however warned that the order could undermine the stability of ObamaCare markets by opening up skimpier, cheaper plans that would divert healthy people away from ObamaCare plans. They also warn that the policies outlined in the order will end up pulling healthier people out of Obamacare’s existing markets, which have strict requirements on what services have to be covered, such as maternity or mental health coverage. The result would be fewer people in the Affordable Care Act’s markets, and the ones who remained could be sicker – driving up premiums, and forcing more people to look elsewhere for coverage.

Democrats warn that the order is part of Trump’s larger plan to “sabotage” the health law and accomplish on his own what Congress could not; democrats have already been crying foul about administration cutbacks to outreach about the coming ObamaCare enrollment period, which begins Nov. 1, including a 90 percent cut to the advertising budget.

“Having failed to repeal the law in Congress, the president is sabotaging the system, using a wrecking ball to singlehandedly rip apart our health care system,” Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) said in a statement. “If the system deteriorates, make no mistake about it, the blame will fall squarely on the president’s back,” he added.

Which, of course, is convenient for Obama’s signature legacy law, which was already sending premiums soaring over the past few years: now that Trump is doing what he can to undo Obamacare, he will become the scapegoat for everything that was wrong with the law in the first place. The bottom line is simple: if premiums continue rising – which they likely will – it will be Trump’s fault now.

By boosting alternative insurance arrangements that would be exempt from some key ACA rules, the change would provide more options for consumers. But health-insurance experts say it could raise costs for sicker people by drawing healthier, younger consumers to these alternative plans, which could be less expensive and offer fewer benefits.

“It would essentially create a parallel regulatory structure within the individual and small group markets that is freed from the various consumer protections established,” said Spencer Perlman, a policy analyst with Veda Partners, a Bethesda, Maryland-based advisory firm. “The end result could be a death spiral for ACA-compliant plans.”

Which, if the Democrats are right, is precisely what Trump hopes to accomplish.

No matter what the final outcome of Trump’s EO, one thing is clear: at least 12.7 million taxpayers will be happy with the outcome. As Bloomberg reports, according to the Internal Revenue Service, 12.7 million taxpayers claimed a health-care coverage exemption on their tax forms, some because they couldn’t find an affordable plan. Condeluci said people are sitting on the sidelines because the individual market is too costly.

“Now, there might be an option for them,” he said.

Of course, another 12 or so million will be less than excited: about 83% of the 12.2 million people in the Obamacare marketplace receive subsidies, i.e., premium tax credits, to help cover the cost of insurance premiums, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. For those who don’t get subsidies, the coverage can be expensive. The average monthly premium for a family of four with a $60,000 annual income was $1,090, or $13,080 a year for a mid-level “silver” plan, according to a 2016 report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

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Fed Officials Frantically Play Dumb to the Coming Inflationary Storm

The Fed is baffled as to why inflation remains so low.

It’s a clever move, given that the reason inflation is believed to be “low” is because the Fed has been purposefully understating inflation for years.

Perhaps the biggest fraud ever committed in financial history concerns the understating of inflation in the Unites States post-1971. 

By the Fed’s own admission, the US Dollar has lost some 84% of its purchasing power since 1971, and yet the Fed has routinely claimed that inflation has been “subdued” or “under control” throughout that time period (with the brief exception of the inflationary spikes of the ‘70s).

With this level of currency depreciation, incomes would have to rise exponentially to compensate for Americans’ higher cost of living. They haven’t. As a result of this, Americans have increasingly relied on two parents working instead of one, while supplementing their incomes with credit cards and other debt instruments.

The below chart is possibly the single best argument against any claim by the Fed or others than the official inflation numbers are accurate. If income growth was indeed greater than the rise in inflation post-1971 as the below chart suggests, most families would currently have only one parent working and STILL be saving money. Instead, today the norm is for both parents to work and the average US household to be sitting on over $137,000 in debt.

Put simply, the official inflation numbers are garbage.

The Fed purposely wants it this way because understating inflation allows the Fed to

1)   Overstate GDP growth

And…

2)   Paper over the fact that incomes have been on the decline relative to cost of living since the early ‘70s.

So don’t let the Fed fool you with its “gosh, where is the inflation?!? We don’t understand!” act. The Fed KNOWS inflation is rising rapidly. Heck, the $USD has already dropped 10% in the last 12 months that’s DESPITE the Fed hiking rates THREE TIMES.

Put simply, BIG INFLATION is the THE BIG MONEY trend today. And smart investors will use it to generate literal fortunes.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

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