Follow The Yellow Brick Road

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

For over a hundred years, it’s been theorised that author L. Frank Baum wrote his 1900 book, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, as a fanciful way to explain the economic situation at the time and that the Yellow Brick Road was a reference to the path created by gold ownership. Whether or not the theory is correct, for many people today, “Follow the Yellow Brick Road” might serve as a mantra for alleviating economic woes.

What will happen is that one day, gold will suddenly be up $100 per ounce, then the next day, $200 per ounce. At first the pundits will be claiming that it’s an anomaly, but as it continues rising, a point will be reached when the average person says to himself, “This seems to be a trend. I’d better buy some gold.” Unfortunately, once the trend is underway, the price that day will have no bearing on whether gold is available. Your local coin shop may be sold out. If you go online, the mints may say that demand is exceeding supply. Large entities will be buying all they can get and the smaller buyers will be way down on the order list, unlikely to take delivery of even a single ounce.

These Are the Good Old Days

Gold has experienced a four year bear market and only recently has begun to rise again. But is it in reality a barbarous relic? Not by a long shot. For over 5,000 years, whenever people have experienced erratic economic periods, they’ve bought gold in order to stabilise their economic position. This has particularly been true whenever fiat currencies have been on the rise and were in danger of hyper-inflating, as in recent years. Most currencies are in decline against the U.S. dollar—a currency which, itself, is very much in danger of collapse in the not-too-distant future.

In the ’70s, I was buying gold in London, as it rose from $35. It reached a high of $850 in January, 1980, then crashed. When gold dropped below $400, I began buying Krugerrands. Sounds like a bargain, and yet, word on the street was that gold was headed further south.

But I was buying long. I was not playing the market; I was building my economic insurance policy. I wasn’t too fussed over price fluctuations, as my gold holdings were meant to cover me if my other investments proved to be a mistake.

At present, gold is well above the high of 1989, but, if we adjust for inflation, we see that gold is actually a bargain at present. This excellent Casey Research chart from 2014 explains it better than mere words:

This tells us that $8,800 would not be an unreasonable level for gold today, if conditions were as dire as they were in 1980. However, conditions are far more dire—debt levels are far beyond any historical levels and markets are in a bubble, just waiting for the arrival of a pin.

A decade ago, when gold topped $700, I predicted $1,500 at some point and even my closest colleagues wondered what I’d been smoking. But it turned out that my prediction was, if anything, conservative. Over the last four years, some of the world’s most informed prognosticators—Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, and Jim Sinclair—have all predicted gold to rise to between $5,000 and $7,000, and some have suggested numbers as high as $50,000. But this hasn’t happened. Are they wrong? No, it just hasn’t happened as of yet.

Conversely, Harry Dent has predicted a drop to $750. So, who’s right? Well, actually, they may all be right. After a crash in the markets, deflation is a certainty, as brokers and investors dump investments of every type in order to cover margin losses. This panic sell-off will most assuredly include gold, even though the holders will not wish to sell their gold. This panic promises to create an immediate and possibly very dramatic downward spike in gold.

However, large numbers of long-term investors already have their orders in for any price below $1,000. If the spike drops below that number, it will therefore be brief, as every ounce that hits the market at $999 is scooped up.

In addition, the Federal Reserve will make good on its decades-long promise to roll the printing presses to counter any sudden deflation. That very act will light the fuse on the gold rocket and send it skyward.

Will the Sun Rise in the Morning or Set in the Evening?

The argument over whether gold will drop to $750 or rise to $5,000 is a pointless one. Any understanding of basic economics assures us that we shall see both sudden deflation and dramatic inflation. It’s as natural and inevitable as sunrise and sunset. (By the way, several of the above individuals have standing bets with each other as to the $750 number. The prize? An ounce of gold.)

But it matters little who will win the bets. What matters is the overview. Rickety economic times are now upon us and they will soon morph into crisis times. In such times, precious metals always return to centre stage, as paper currencies and electronic currencies return to their intrinsic worth of zero. Gold does not so much rise against fiat currencies, as fiat currencies collapse against gold.

Most assuredly, we shall see a dramatic rise in gold, but, just as in the ‘70s, the average person will fail to understand why and will simply chase the upward trend. When gold hits $2,000, but no one is willing to sell for under, say, $2,500, those who are chasing the trend will pay the $2,500 and that will become the new price across the board. Then it will leap higher—again and again, as monetary panic grips the investment world. The inflation-adjusted 1980 price of $8,800 should not be a surprise at all—in fact it would be low, as, in the coming years, conditions will be far more dire than in 1980. Gold may well blow through $10,000. Even the $50,000 figure is not impossible, as we shall be seeing a runaway bull market where those chasing the trend carry gold beyond any rational value.

But gold has an intrinsic value. 2,000 years ago, an ounce of gold could buy you a good suit of clothes. That’s still true today. A gold mania will fuel the gold price beyond anything logical, but a correction will be equally inevitable, dropping it to its intrinsic value.

We shall see a gold rise for the record books. The wise investor should already have stocked up his supply of physical gold and gotten rid of gold ETFs. He should already have his seat belt fastened and ready for take-off. We’re off to see the wizard.

via http://ift.tt/2365EQj Tyler Durden

Dramatic Footage Emerges From Inside Orlando Nightclub During Deadly Shooting

As the world continues to learn more about the tragic events that occurred over the weekend at a gay nightclub in Orlando, in what ultimately was the deadliest mass shooting in US history, a dramatic video has emerged that captures the very moment the shooting began that fateful evening.

Amanda Alvear, a 25 year old nursing student, was streaming footage on snapchat showing club goers enjoying themselves just as a hail of gunfire rang out in the club. The brief clip was posted on Facebook by Amanda's brother Brian according to the Daily Mail.

The Mail reports that Brian indicated on his Facebook account that Amanda received and answered one call after the video. Sadly, the last thing he had heard about his sister was that she was hiding in the bathroom before learning of her death.

Here is the snapchat video – Warning: May be disturbing for some viewers.

Show teaser normally

via http://ift.tt/1Xl8Fw6 Tyler Durden

Another Real Estate Market Ripe For A Bust

By Chris at http://ift.tt/12YmHT5

Do you remember the movie American Psycho where nobody was afraid of Patrick Bateman? At least not until they were all relaxed and then… Whoah! He reared up with that shiny axe and chopped them into bits.

As a viewer you knew the guy clearly had issues. And after the first murder even the slowest amongst us had more than just an inkling that the perception of risk and the reality of risk were at odds.

Today we’re looking at the same sort of situation. But it takes stepping aside from the herd to view it for what it really is.

Just as the victims in American Psycho didn’t see risk until they had a spiky knife plunging into them, the markets today seem to think the unprecedented central bank “we’ll do whatever it takes” intervention we’ve become so accustomed to presents no risk. None.

We can see this in the pricing of risk. They seem to think that 700 year lows in interest rates mark an extraordinary accomplishment which, I’ll grant they do, just not in the way most think about it.

This is a topic often discussed with friends and colleagues and one of those friends, Kim Iskyan, showed me this chart.

Global Debt

Kim recently wrote a great piece on debt, which I would encourage you to read. It goes some way into detailing just how extraordinary the situation is.

I’ve been involved in finance for over 15 years now and have always been an avid fan of history. This brings with it two things:

  1. The first is that I’m completely incapable of discussing the weather, what Oprah just did, or Justin Bieber’s latest tweets.
  2. The other is that, aside from grudgingly acknowledging I’m not as young as I used to be, I can tell you when a certain market setup is NOT normal.

There are a number of ways I as well as some of the sharpest guys I know in finance are playing these anomalies. I will be discussing these in greater detail soon with a dedicated subscriber service. But for now let me show you one of the knock-on effects of this unique mis-pricing of risk.

Last week I discussed Australian real estate as a giant puss-filled financial pimple ripe to burst.

Now as nutty as Australian real estate is, I thought it worth discussing the small, empty island next door: New Zealand.

There is a saying that New Zealand is a country where men are men and sheep are scared. Well, sheep are the least of New Zealanders’ problems.

New Zealanders, like their Australian friends, love rugby and real estate. I’m not sure which they love more but both topics are debated heatedly everywhere and all the time.

Kiwis’ love affair with rugby has seen them win the last rugby world cup – no small feat for a country with a population rivalling that of an average Bangladeshi apartment building.

On the other hand, their love affair with housing has resulted in Kiwi households now carrying debt 

Household Debt

 In the last 5 years alone household debt has risen 23% while incomes have risen by just 11.5%. How is this possible, you may ask?

Like Bateman’s victims and their Australian cousins, Kiwis have ignored the warning signs and instead have been seduced by lower and lower interest costs on their debt.

Aggregate debt becomes meaningless as the cost to carry that debt.

Interest Rates

Think about it: the average Joe Sixpack has lost touch with the aggregate debt he’s taking on. Instead, he wanders into the local bank where – together with a banker who understands neither economics nor history – they crunch some numbers. Numbers which are based on Joe’s ability to pay the monthly tab on an amortised mortgage over 20 to 30 years and where interest rates are extrapolated into perpetuity. Interest rates which are at 50+ year lows!

Little does Joe realise he’s sitting down with Bateman organising a dinner date in a quiet secluded spot.

Even More Vulnerable

What makes New Zealand particularly vulnerable is the fact that it has no domestic capital markets and as such borrows offshore. But offshore lenders don’t like currency risk which they’re taking as all lending takes place against NZD denominated assets.

Banks have to match the fixed rate mortgages against what is mostly floating rate borrowing. And since the NZ housing market is the largest single form of borrowing it is the biggest influencer on New Zealand swap rates.

Because most of the debt that NZ banks take on is floating, they pass this risk onto borrowers. And so it’s no surprise that the vast majority of NZ mortgage debt is either floating or fixed for no longer than 2 years at initiation. Offering anything longer means NZ banks would be taking on risk they simply can’t hedge economically.

Any sudden rise in the cost of offshore borrowing can have a disproportionate effect on mortgage rates and the debt payments Joe Sixpack is making. Joe remains completely unhedged against interest rate risk. And there is precious little he can do about it unless he’s sophisticated enough to hedge his mortgage risk in the futures market – something I assure you is as likely as my following Justin Bieber on Twitter.

Simple volatility in the currency can cause risk premiums to rise as offshore lenders hedge this volatility risk but most Kiwis don’t seem to understand this risk. And that is at a time when the Kiwi dollar is under pressure due to the USD bull market, coupled with falling commodity prices, dairy in particular.

But What About Supply, Chris?

Good question and worthy of considering. There exists a supply shortage which is especially acute in Auckland. This has fuelled price appreciation and may continue to do so.

But ultimately I’m reminded of walking the streets of cities like Harare or Yangon where you have scores of people living on the streets. People who need homes but also people who ultimately cannot afford one.

Whether we like it or not, affordability matters. And a guy on a $80,000 gross income buying a $800,000 home won’t last forever.

New Zealand, over the last year, has entered parabolic territory with house price growth accelerating – text book FOMO market behaviour.

The below chart shows that NZ is second only to Qatar in real house price growth.

RE Growth

While Qatar had greater house price growth in percentage terms, it is New Zealand who takes out top spot for the country with the fastest house price growth relative to incomes.

The links between higher real estate values, higher household debt, and lower interest rates are unavoidably obvious.

So What Now?

While I realise only a fractionally tiny amount of readers will be living in either Sydney or Auckland; and of those who are, an even smaller percentage will have mortgages.

But for those who have mortgages in any of those place, it is certainly worth considering the data and realising that the perception of risk by the broad market and that of your neighbours may be akin to Batemans victims in American Psycho. Maybe, just maybe, it’s time to hit the bid!

For the rest of us the way I think this plays out is through a weaker currency. Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely continue to ease or hold rates low in the face of such high debt levels. Letting the domestic debt bomb detonate is neither politically viable nor economically viable.

Normally Aussie and Kiwi interest rates are higher than US, Euro or Japanese rates, making the currencies more attractive to traders who will play the carry trade. This advantage is eroded as those rates converge and traders will sell Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Something else to consider is buying certain companies which would benefit from a weaker local currency. Margin expansion happens where revenues are in US dollars and operating expenses are in local currency.

The Bigger Story

There is of course a bigger story here…

We’re at the end of the debt super cycle, and the market dislocations that play out as this unfolds promise to be of the life changing flavour. Real estate in Auckland, Sydney, Vancouver, Hong Kong – these are symptoms of a much bigger problem. A problem that will be sorted out painfully.

– Chris

“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.” – George Soros

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Theft Of Opportunity – The Impact Of Reg NMS On The Retail Investor

Submitted by John Marchisi (former US Stock Exchange Official), via Nanex.net,

There has been a certain buzz on the street revolving around possible new regulation shortly coming into effect, regarding the need for improved transparency within the capital markets. Unfortunately, I fear the perception as to there is such a need for change has missed the mark once again.

Transparency has been the keyword and focus within the scope of recent efforts, and as I aim to reveal, not the true root of the problem. The call for greater Transparency has been the safe and preferred battle cry within the capital market regulatory ranks for years. Unfortunately, greater transparency is completely meaningless to the plight of the equity market’s retail customers, without the proper infrastructure and policy to compliment. What use would a largely windowed store front and wonderful product display on main street be, if that window is not accompanied by a door for would be shoppers to enter and execute their wishes of buying those goods?

Whenever the pendulum of change makes it way into an industry, it often begins with a Robin Hood-esque cry for reform, attempted honorable cries for an effort to defend those with neither the voice, nor the power, to stand up for themselves and their rights. Usually the ground swell of reform centers itself around the ways with which to quell unjust practices, designing policy and governance to mitigate additional harm from occurring in the future. Unfortunately, in the case of the U.S. secondary Capital Markets, and specifically the policies of Regulation NMS, the root of current unjust practices lie in what seems to be unknowingly within the policies themselves.

This is the first in a series of articles I am authoring to help illustrate the dire need for policy reform concerning the current capital market structure under the rules of Regulation NMS. The explanations will be overly simplified as not to lose the exact audience in need of being informed, as is the case with so many inequities in business, the power to deceive lies within the jargon.

Beginning with the design and adoption of the Regulation National Market Structure rules in 2005 (Reg. NMS), the capital markets have since undergone a complete overhaul as to how, where, and how quickly trading is being executed. Within the broader scope of the Reg. NMS reform, there were certain policies I will later note, both specifically and even more alarmingly, are the exemptions [a] to these policies, which have led to the concerns I am speaking of today.

Regulation NMS made its first major impact with the introduction of “Payment For Order Flow”, which when paired with sub-penny pricing, is now directly responsible for birthing a new gold rush within the capital markets.

The dawn of the High Frequency Trading (HFT) community we witness today.

The result of this policy is an insurmountable, unequal, and unjust advantage for self-dealing BD’s and HFT’s, at the expense of the market’s retail level investors.

PAYMENT FOR ORDER FLOW

Payment for order flow as defined on the surface, can seem like a self-contained policy and practice, casually explained in short form by those wishing to keep the power of public opinion from identifying the practice as inequitable.

I would argue however, that payment for order flow as a legalized policy and practice, results in the complete and total destruction of opportunity for the retail investor to succeed in the marketplace. The practice is both inequitable and predatory. Moreover, when combined with certain rules and exemptions known on the street as the “Madoff Exemptions”, irreversible damage is being done on a daily basis to the industry’s reputation as a whole.

When we identify these contributing factors and their respective adverse effects, we can then begin to identify a proper regulatory solution.

To begin, it takes nothing more than a Google search and a few minutes of ones time to locate both the town hall, and comment and answer period transcripts surrounding the 2005 proposal of Regulation NMS.[b] While reading the transcripts regarding the architecture, design and proposed implementation of this newly proposed market structure and policy, you cannot help to notice the names of two primary advisors.

The now infamous Andrew and Bernie Madoff.

This simple fact should serve as concern number one, as many of the rules and now so-called “Madoff” exemptions, were designed to allow for and even incentivize, the same inequitable practices REG NMS set out to initially regulate.

Payment for order flow, as designed and created by Bernie Madoff, comes in two flavors. There are the maker/taker models that are now in effect in venues like the NYSE, which serve as the oxygen HFT firms need to breathe. The other variation comes in the form of payment for retail order flow by broker dealers, for the right to trade against such seemingly unsophisticated investors. This is where order flow internalization begins to show its true colors as prohibitive in upholding the best execution practices, which Regulation NMS originally aimed to uphold.

I would say it can be argued that this policy is responsible for spawning a new form of insider trading, as the purchasers of these orders then possess both an advanced, and privileged knowledge of the competition’s intent, which is then exploited for profit. Insider trading has previously been defined as using non-public information to gain advantage in anticipation of what the public might do once the information is released. How is it that now removing the need for any anticipation, and gaining that same advantage through the knowledge of instead the actual intent of the public in real-time, any less malicious and damaging?

As an industry tasked with conducting a fair and orderly market, originally designed to provide equal opportunity for all participants, herein currently lie massive failures, which need to be reassessed immediately.

With the SEC commenting recently that “The competition for order flow among these venues is intense, and it benefits investors by encouraging services that meet particular trading needs and by keeping trading fees low”[c], you can ask yourself, why is order flow the target of such fierce competition? Well the simple answer is that given the current rules, retail order flow is an all but a sure thing in regards to using it to turn a profit, a new gold rush of sorts.

This policy is solely responsible for allowing the purchasing broker dealer to commoditize a competitor’s investment intentions for their own benefit through the payment for retail order flow. When I speak of a retail investors sheer investment intent being commoditized, I mean to present the fact that the retail customer’s order is being left in the intention stage, as it is stepped ahead of before it is ever actually executed. This is why the potential damage being done is ultimately unquantifiable.

Payment for order flow, allows the professional trader (broker dealer), to purchase retail level order flow, for both the protection of their interests in the market and proprietary financial gain. The retail order is purchased both ahead of, and with prior knowledge to, the publicly displayed and protected customer order commitments, with which the investor originally intended to transact with. These intercepted orders are then executed simply to suit the proprietary interests of the purchasing broker dealer for their proprietary gain.

It is the ultimate display of middleman self-dealing, and it occurs without competition, in the sub-penny pricing universe, which needlessly exists within the fractions of a penny.

The beneficiaries of this practice will make their sole argument and have you believe they offer the intercepted order, “price betterment”. Are we to believe this argument that within the most unforgiving and highly competitive financial arenas, there are bands of good Samaritan broker dealers leaving money on the table for their competition out of the kindness of their hearts? Well to that argument I ask, what of the order on the opposite side of the execution? The customer was unable to obtain the execution he was entitled to prior to being stepped ahead of? The customer who’s opportunity to transact in the market and earn a potential profit was stripped away, what happens to that customer?

The answer simply is, nothing. This “price betterment” comes at exactly that customer’s expense, as his/her opportunity has now been stripped away.

In making that argument as a defense, broker dealers and HFT’s only prove to the world their sole motivation to purchase the stock at that moment was to step ahead of an existing order which was legally due a match against the order that has been “improved”. Even worse yet, this proves that the BD’s have the ability to unfairly control order flow in advance of it arriving at the matching engine and executed against competing investors. Did the investor who set the original intent to purchase the stock at a price receive the opportunity for a “second look” and alter his order to now pay within fractions of a penny to guarantee and receive his due execution? The answer is no. The negative ramifications of this practice are many, as we will soon uncover as we get further down the rabbit hole.

ORDER FLOW INTERNALIZATION

In his final year as SEC Chairman, Arthur Levitt vocalized an almost precognition and now validated warning as to the dangers of order flow internalization. Under current Regulation NMS rules, the adverse effects Chairman Levitt feared, have not only been realized, but have manifested entirely new profit centers for a very small niche of opportunists, at the expense of many.

Payment for order flow is not a victimless crime, and the theft does not consist of a certain product or a price itself, but of the sheer opportunity. It is a heist of opportunity, of a fair chance to be in the competition, and of a level playing field with which the mere opportunity to buy and sell stock is available.

As it currently sits as a legalized practice, payment for order flow, results in the theft of the retail investor’s right to the simple opportunity to invest and participate in the market. This is a theft of opportunity. Which is exactly why the effects are impossible to quantify. The retail investor is left with two choices in the current market, pay the spread, or remain unexecuted. Passively bidding for or offering stock for sale is a dead end, the opportunity no longer exists.

When a company is experiencing margin compression… you first look to reduce costs of operating expenses, build out loss controls, etc… when costs can no longer be improved the only strategy you have to offset the effect of this loss of margin, is to drive higher volume. With execution costs already being as low as we have ever seen, the only way to drive revenue becomes through either an increase in volume traded for the BD’s, or for the sale of order flow on the brokerage side. This is why this lobby is so powerful, and the interest in keeping internalization here to stay is a battle at the highest levels.

Traditionally, volatility is what attracts traders to an issue, it is the air with which good traders need to breathe… add to that an increase in volume, and you have a recipe for success.

Volatility + Volume = Opportunity

What payment for order flow does on an unequal playing field, is remove the need for volatility. The benefactors of the policy no longer need volatility and price movement in order to profit. For all intents and purposes, it creates a risk-less arbitrage.

Now the equation becomes:

Payment For Order Flow = Volume ( Volume unavailable to the open market )

This NEW model now becomes

Volume – Volatility = Arbitrage ( Against retail order flow )

The players in the space would conveniently like the public to believe the assertion that this “internalization” within the spread is what they like to define again as “price betterment.”

To illustrate, imagine you have a one stop light town we will call Main Street USA, and on this street, the town has proprietary businesses looking to buy and sell their respective products to earn their living. Knowing this, and knowing beforehand the exact prices the Main Street USA businesses are willing to pay for their products, a company we will call “Intertraders” sets up shop and opens its doors, right smack dab in the middle of the off ramp to Main Street, around the bend before the town comes into view. Armed with the Main Street USA product pricing and inventory in hand, “Intertraders” begins to offer the same number of products, for one hundredth of a penny less than Main Street, only right around that bend in the road. “Intertraders” also sets up a roadblock preventing any would be shoppers from ever reaching beyond them into the inventory of Main Street. In actuality when compared to what is allowed by Reg NMS payment for orderflow practices, "Intertraders" would be within the law to pull over any customers wishing to make their way to Main Street and sell them their goods, before and even against their will to transact on Main Street. It is a complete and total hijacking and retail investors are powerless to stop it.

Now before we start screaming definitions of Capitalism and a free market, what if we said that the local laws not only forbid the Main Street businesses to move their locations closer to the off ramp, but on top of that, passed a law restricting Main Street businesses pricing any products in penny increments? Even worse, the governing laws have not only allowed for a special set of exemptions, which allowed “Interbrokers” from conducting business this exact way, but furthermore placed barricades to keep Main Street from ever having the sheer opportunity to compete in the first place.

Again, the impact which internalization has upon our markets is unquantifiable, because it is the sheer restriction of opportunity, occurring under our very noses. Equal opportunity for all is not at work in the capital markets as it stands today, plain and simple.

So although these practices are theoretically allowable under current policy, I believe the people of Main Street would consider that an Unfair and Inequitable Business Practice. It would be even better if the Main Street business owners understood what was actually happening to them so they can attempt to advocate for themselves.

Payment for order flow is nothing more than the interception of retail customer orders through the exploitation of Reg. NMS exemptions, for the sole purpose of proprietary gains for a very select few, under the guise of “price betterment.”

Now given that scenario, being that all purchasing traffic is being diverted just before it ever arrives on Main Street, how long do you believe it will take before Main Street is out of business and boarded up…? How long does this need to go on before the powers that be start to realize the cause of the decline of participation and volume the markets have been witnessing the last 5-7 years? Retail customers are being turned upside down, shaken, disenfranchised and kicked to the curb, only wise to never return again.

SUB-PENNY PRICING

Of all the current policies of Reg. NMS surrounding “Payment for order flow” which is disenfranchising retail investors on a massive scale, it is the allowance of sub-penny pricing which is the most inexcusable, injurious and discriminatory of policies.

The ability for broker dealers purchasing retail order flow to trade that flow completely unfettered within fractions of a penny, has resulted in the complete destruction of opportunity in the marketplace for the retail investor. It is impossible to make a single argument as to why this would be allowed to exist, other than the blatant exploitation of retail by the circumvention of the rules of parity, priority, and precedence. The simple practice itself is both rooted in and defined by, ceasing an opportunity to trade ahead and in front of, protected and displayed quotes.

During my time as an Exchange Official on the floor of the American Stock Exchange, 99% of all the disputes I made rulings in, concerned the issues of Priority, Parity, and Precedence. The market is designed to operate the same way a line works in a retail store, first come first served. Although it is a little more complicated, the PPP rules govern how stock is split between participants bidding or offering at the same price points during a sale.

Parity rules prior to Reg NMS governed how customers bidding/offering stock at the same price point would receive their due split of the sale. For example, in 2011 when SIRI (Sirius Sat. Radio) would literally trade hundreds of millions of shares within 2-3 cent range for months on end. A customer could wait all day to have his turn in the just to split among the thousands of customers trying to participate in the stock.

Now that you understand this, you should be able to understand that the entire purpose and design of sub-penny pricing, is to unfairly allow privileged broker dealers to essentially skip the line, avoid having to split the stock with the retail customers while essentially paying the same price… with the added benefit of being able to turn around and sell that exact stock to the retail customer as a built in insurance policy against losses.

This is fantastic if you are one of the lucky broker dealer firms to have such a great opportunity with which to quantify your risk against… but for retail, you are left unexecuted, again.

To illustrate:

Per the current rules, the tightest allowable published market in issues trading greater than 1.00, is one penny. The spread will then reflect this:

XYZ – 1.05 x 1.06

Sub-penny pricing allows the Broker Dealers who are paying for the right to trade retail order flow, this opaque environment, with which to rob the market of equal opportunity. So even though the public is not privileged by the rules to see it, sub-penny pricing allows the market for Broker Dealers to be inside of the public:

XYZ – 1.0501 x 1.0599

Just looking at the simple explanation above shines light upon the practice as predatory. Meaning that the only meaningful explanation for a Broker Dealer to transact order flow within the space of a penny, is to use this unfair ability afforded by the rules, to essentially front run publicly displayed orders. The result is the theft of the execution opportunity from the very customers putting capital at risk to publicly establish a liquid market in the first place. It also illustrates the reason behind the market’s volatile swings and dispels the misnomer that HFT adds liquidity to the market place. These operations do not operate and deploy capital unless there is existing liquidity to protect themselves and reverse out of positions with.

Although I would say without a shadow of a doubt that the retail investor is being damaged most by their execution opportunities being stolen, it is not the only concern. Sub-penny pricing also brings with it a distinct tactical disadvantage, and as I will later explain, a risk management equation so unfair, there is no other way to describe it other than being a rigged game.

In terms of the trading of equity, derivative, ETF, or listed option issues, the numerous factors influencing price movement and the resulting areas of resistance and support remain the same. When a resistance or support level has been established, be it by technical or psychological influences, or perhaps the simple presence of a displayed market inventory, opportunity for a trade will be abound.

Sub-penny pricing gives the Broker Dealer both a tactical and operational advantage with which to extract profit by exploiting the intentions of the competition. That advantage comes in many forms, but the most important and the easiest to explain would be regarding risk management.

Even the very best money managers, funds, traders, etc… have their days, or years for that matter, where the market just seems to have your number. It’s called being at the risk of the market, and very simply, no one is good enough to win all the time. Well at least that was the case prior to Reg NMS, and High Frequency Trading. In the last few years, the financial community is chock full with stories of HFT’s who have gone not only months, but years, without a single daily loss. How may you ask is such a monumental feat not only newly possible, but probable?

Well there are many ways this is now possible, including manipulation, order sniffing, co-location, payment for order flow, sub-penny pricing etc… but for the most part, this new market architecture was designed by the Madoff’s, so should we really be surprised? Hardly.

SUB-PENNY PRICING AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL

Good risk management begins with first identifying the factors contributing to your exposure that are within your control to positively influence, in turn decreasing the possibilities or severity of a loss. As they say in insurance, frequency breeds severity.

For example, you may not be able to control your genetics and predispositions to certain illnesses, but you do have complete control over decisions regarding your diet and exercise regimens in order to improve your chances of living a long and enjoyable life.

Point being, there has not been some watershed moment regarding risk management in the time since REG NMS implementation, seemingly allowing these BD and HFT operations to profit almost exclusively without risk. When reportedly going years and years without a single loss, you have to begin to wonder how this is all possible. It surely is not being contributed to some magical advance in actuarial science, it is being accomplished by controlling retail order flow, using it as both an insurance policy, and a revenue source

In a world of highly advanced and complex financial vehicles, sub-penny pricing and payment for order flow is allowing only those exempted few privy to its use, the most simple and risk free opportunity to scalp a profit.

For these simple few, there is no longer a need for extensive research and analyst departments, no need to synthetically hedge through expensive option contracts, or hardly even a true need to actually quantify risk… it is now as simple as locating someone who wants to buy or sell a stock, jump in front of them, use them for protection if things go awry, rinse and repeat. And the rules allow for this to happen, completely legally, all at the ultimate expense of the retail investor.

The way in which these records of previously unseen performance have been realized, is through working the orders being controlled, against the publicly displayed order flow, essentially making them an insurance policy with the use of sub-penny pricing. The status quo is to locate large displayed inventory, be it a heavily contested spread, a level of psychological or technical support or resistance, so on and so forth…

Such as:

3911 – 1.00 x 1.01 – 4580

When a BD can intercept retail sell orders, and purchase the order by paying 1.001 ahead of the displayed 1.00 bids, the 1.00 bids become an insurance policy. The BD is protected, at very least by the close to 400K shares bid for, being that if the bid looks as if it is in danger of breaking down and the pressure builds, they can reverse the trade and flatten out their long position, hitting the 1.00 bid and realizing a .001 loss. This equates to $1000 dollar loss for every one million shares traded. On the flip side, for every one million shares that they are successfully able to execute within the one penny spread using sub-penny pricing, they will profit $10,000. Not a bad ROI when you conduct this operation day in and day out. The best part for the BD is that being able to profit in the stock doesn’t actually require a move in the stock price, or for them to ever actually take a risk and be correct in the upward movement. They can just continually operate within the spread, without competition, and with insurance against losses.

Also remember that the minimum profit that can be realized in the smallest spread allowable is .098, or just shy of .01 cent. That may not seem like a lot, but the opportunity itself is being bought for UP TO .0035. So the cost for the opportunity is roughly only 30% of the potential profit. There is no doubt that most, if not all, American businesses would only dream of a 70% profit margin.

Now to contrast that against the reality of what a retail investor faces. Let us illustrate against that same example.

3911 – 1.00 x 1.01 – 4580

A retail investor who attempts to purchase the stock by bidding 1.00, will be intercepted and left unexecuted for as long as that trade seems stable, unless of course the BD needs to use them as protection, which will then result in an immediate loss as most likely the market will move downward. So in the event the retail investor wants to purchase the stock, he or she will need to pay the offering price of 1.01. Now as mentioned previously, this is an instant risk as the best bid available as insurance would be 1.00, a loss of .01 cent or 1%.

Being that sub-penny pricing and payment for order flow is for all intents and purposes, stealing the opportunity for the retail investor to obtain a passive execution on the bid or offer price, the retail investor will now need a displayed bid to hit to realize a profit. This means, that the market will need to move .03 cents or 3% in order for that retail investor to realize that same .01 penny profit the BD realized without a price move in the equity at all.

The stock will need to rise in this case 3% with the market moving from:

1.00 x 1.01

To

1.01 x 1.02

And finally

1.02 x 1.03

Now that a 1.02 bid has been published on the NBBO, the retail investor who purchased stock at 1.01, can sell that stock at 1.02 and make their .01 cent profit. This is just a simple explanation of the headwinds and lack of opportunity retail investors have had legislated against them.

FRAGMENTATION – The Current Landscape Of The Capital Markets

Simply put, market fragmentation = The Order Protection Rule killer.

In an attempt to guarantee the best price for investors, the order protection rule of REG. NMS mandated that exchanges aim to assure that all market participants receive the best possible displayed execution price available. Shortly after the rules were enacted, the decentralization of the capital markets and its now plethora of exchange venues effectively rendered the order protection rule 611 ineffective.

In theory the rule serves well, as many theories do, until they are put to the test of the real world. The simple fact is that the fragmentation of the capital markets with the addition of dozens new market venues, has not been met with the infrastructure and connectivity needed to enforce the new rules and adequately protect investors. Some of the connectivity roadblocks are indeed purposeful, obviously influenced by factors both political and financial, but nonetheless the cause is not the concern. It is the effect is has on execution quality, which is the most damaging to retail investors. In many cases this lack of connectivity between venues, is consistently causing a breach of fiduciary responsibility by brokerage houses to their clients.

For example, when you view a market montage in a listed issue, ETF, or derivative product, the top line consists of the best displayed market prices, and consolidated total inventory, which is known as the national best bid and best offer (NBBO). Under that best price, you will then see a montage with national exchanges and venues separately listed and their respective displayed inventory, which makes up the NBBO. This can all get quite complicated, with separate rules for access for Dark Pools, Retail, Direct Access etc… so for the sake of illustration, I will use a simple example and elaborate on the problem.

When a retail level investor wishes to enter the market and purchase stock through any number of the retail or online brokerage houses available today, the order you submit is executed in a number of ways. If for example you are an XYZ Brokerage customer, your order is firstly paired with any retail order flow on the opposite side of the trade, in-house, in order to maximize the commission billing to the brokerage.

If in the order is unable to be matched and executed in-house, it is then routed to the broker dealer who is currently paying XYZ Brokerage for the order flow. XYZ then routes the order to the second best venue pricing on the montage, which then again takes the same steps. In the event that there is still a lack of inventory to execute against within that second marketplace, the venue and house may publish the bid on the NBBO. Now while this has been going on, there may be offers with which your order can be executed to supply you with the price you desire, but those offers may reside in yet another one of the dozens of venues out there…

I will save the subject of what follows in the form of locked markets and the commission turf wars surrounding that for another time.

Even though your brokerage house has a fiduciary responsibility to make any and all attempts to secure the best price for orders entrusted to them, the waters become very muddy here, in that once they make that first attempt at shipping to the next best venue, the fiduciary responsibility to you is complete. The second venue is no longer burdened with best execution duties to you, as you are not a direct account holder with the second brokerage. I have seen this happen and I have seen this be quite catastrophic, with absolutely zero recourse as to a financial remedy to the victim.

The reason you may not be entitled to and receive the bid or offer price you are entitled to, which is by law, a firm quote once published, may be as simple an explanation as a lack of connectivity. Many firms, dark pools, exchanges and liquidity, simply do not allow anyone and everyone access to that liquidity. So if you are a retail client of XYZ, and there is a $2.00 dollar bid in ABC Exchange, and you would love to sell that buyer every share you own, you do not and will not ever have the ability to. The current unfortunate reality is, that the best price you are entitled to is limited to the best inventory your respective broker has on hand at that moment. No more, no less. Market fragmentation and the resulting order flow wars are systemically disenfranchising customers, which is exactly opposite of the original intent with which the order protection rules were designed.

I pose a simple question to end the discussion. There is a common belief on the street regarding retail order flow. It is believed by many that the value which is placed up retail order flow given the intense competition to purchase it by BD’s, is due to the simple fact that the poor, little, inexperienced retail customer is usually always wrong. Trading against an unsophisticated retail client with a professional’s superior skill, news dissemination, hardware and software, research, access to information, etc.. is regarded by many as a sure thing. So if the trading community is seemingly so confident in their inherent advantages, why then is there a need to foster an even greater disadvantage for the retail investor with the roadblocks and exemptions in our current policies?

There is a lasting and immeasurable ramification of these policies in that they are leaving the very people who finance the capital markets, the public, with a disdain and resentment for the industry. For every time the retail investor looks for an opportunity to participate in the market, he is turned upside down with pockets shaken out by an unfair and unjust set of regulations. Where the market should be thriving and growing clientele organically, and sustaining on repeat and lifelong clientele, we are witnessing the exact opposite… ever declining volumes and retail participation rates… the proof is there.

The retail investor is the most precious natural resource the financial markets has, we can no longer afford to let bad policy allow for the few to benefit at the cost of the many. Every time we attract a new investor who wishes to take part in the seemingly boundless opportunity the markets provide, but is in turn swallowed up and spit out by an unfair and rigged playing field, that resource is squandered. You cannot fail to make the association that the resulting immeasurable number of disenchanted investors are having on the market today. Participation rates are down, volume across the board has been in steady decline, and we are losing the very people who fuel the engine of this economy. I only hope to see equal opportunity for all once again in the greatest wealth creation vehicle the world has ever known.

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Why SocGen Thinks That “For Long-Term Investors The Outlook Is Dire”

As SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne reminds us, the big moves last week were in the bond markets, with numerous bond yields hitting historical lows and many moving further into negative territory. This, he adds, “is no longer yield chasing but a combination of price momentum, economic fear and structural issues.”

This is a big problem for savers and anyone else reliant on fixed income for the simple reason that there no longer is such a thing as fixed income.

But there are worse news for long-term investors according to Lapthorne. Much worse.

In fact, according to the SocGen strategist, “for long-term investors the outlook is dire.” Here’s why:

The following chart plots the excess return from investing 100,000 US dollars for 20 years in a balanced portfolio consisting of 50% MSCI World, 40% global sovereign bonds, 5% cash and 5% corporate bonds. We show the gross amount and a net amount assuming investment charges and costs of 100bps. The figures are simply based on investing for 20 years at the prevailing yield.

 

If you invested today for 20 years the after cost excess return might be $21,800 (today’s yield on a balanced portfolio is just 199bps minus 100bps) versus $60,000 if you invested 10 years ago – and a $150,000 30 years ago. Of course inflation rates are much lower today than they were 30 years ago and trading and management costs are coming down. But you can’t escape the obvious conclusion: those with large nominal liabilities are going to have to find more money.

Is there any wonder, then,  why capital markets are not only manipulated by central banks (as the ECB was so proud to demonstrate earlier), but investors no longer have an interest in playing, knowing that at these prices, the most likely outcome is not winning?

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Putting America’s Economy In Context – Illinois ‘Bigger’ Than Saudi Arabia

The US economy remains staggeringly large. In order to help put America’s GDP of $18 trillion in 2015 into perspective, the following chart compares the GDP of US states to other country’s entire national GDP…

 

As Mark Perry explains (via Austrian Economics blogs), the map above (click to enlarge) was created (with assistance from AEI’s graphic design director Olivier Ballou) by matching the economic output (GDP) in each US state (and the District in Columbia) in 2015 to foreign countries with comparable nominal GDP last year, using data from the BEA for GDP by US state and data for GDP by country from the International Monetary Fund. For each US state (and the District of Columbia), I identified the country closest in economic size in 2015 (measured by nominal GDP), and for each state there was a country with a pretty close match – those countries are displayed in the map above and in the table below. Obviously, in some cases the closest match was a country that produced slightly more, or slightly less, economic output in 2015 than a given US state.

For example:

1. America’s largest state economy is California, which produced $2.44 trillion of economic output in 2015, just slightly above the GDP of France during the same period of $2.42 trillion. Consider this: California has a workforce of about 19 million compared to an employment level in France of slightly more than 25 million workers. Amazingly, it required 56% (and 9 million) more workers in France to produce the same economic output last year as California! That’s a testament to the superior, world-class productivity of the American worker. Further, California as a separate country would have been the 6th largest economy in the world last year, ahead of France ($2.42 trillion) and India ($2.09 trillion) and not too far behind No. 5 UK at $2.85 trillion.

 

2. America’s second largest state economy – Texas – produced $1.64 trillion of economic output in 2015, which would have ranked the Lone Star State as the world’s 10th largest economic last year, behind No. 9 Brazil with $1.77 trillion of economic output. Although Brazil out-produced Texas last year by almost 8%, the workforce of Brazil is around 91 million employees compared to payroll employment in Texas of only about 12 million. So to produce just slightly more economic output last year, Brazil’s workforce is larger by almost 80 million workers compared to the US!

 

3. Even with all of its oil wealth, Saudi Arabia’s GDP in 2015 at $653 billion was below the GDP of US states like Pennsylvania ($680 billion) and Illinois ($768 billion).

 

4. America’s third largest state economy – New York with a GDP in 2015 of $1.45 trillion – produced nearly the same amount of economic output last year as Canada ($1.55 trillion) and would have ranked as the world’s 11th largest economy last year as a separate country, ahead of both South Korea ($1.38 trillion) and Russia ($1.32 trillion). Amazingly, even though Canada produced about 7% more economic output last year than the state of New York, there are almost twice as many Canadian workers (about 18 million) as the number of workers employed in New York (9.2 million). Another example of the world-class productivity of the American workforce.

 

5. Other comparisons: Florida ($888 billion) produced about the same amount of GDP in 2015 as Indonesia ($858 billion), even though Florida’s workforce of 9.3 million is about 8% of Indonesia’s workforce of 115 million employees. GDP in Illinois last year of $768 billion was just slightly higher than economic output in the Netherlands ($738 billion), even though employment in Illinois (6.2 million workers) is about 25% below the employment level in the Netherlands (8.34 million workers).

MP: Overall, the US produced 24.5% of world GDP in 2015, with only about 4.5% of the world’s population. Three of America’s states (California, Texas and New York) – as separate countries – would have ranked in the world’s top 11 largest economies last year. And one of those states – California – produced more than $2 trillion in economic output in 2015 – and the other two (Texas and New York) produced more than $1.6 trillion and $1.4 trillion of GDP in 2015 respectively.

Putting America’s ridiculously large $18T economy into perspective by comparing US state GDPs to entire countries

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Goldman Won Over Libyan Investors With ‘Hookers & Five-Star Hotels’ (Then Promptly Lost All Of Its Money)

Goldman Sachs, the pillar of honesty and integrity is fighting in court to keep the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) from clawing back $1.2 billion the LIA says was lost through nine disputed trades conducted in 2008.

The LIA, Libya's $67 billion national investment fund, is saying that Goldman gained its trust and then abused it by encouraging it to participate in complex trades that it did not understand.

"The disputed trades were inherently unsuitable for a nascent sovereign wealth fund such as the LIA and Goldman Sachs knew (or at the very least suspected) that the LIA did not properly understand the trades, which were highly structured, complex, and risky" a document submitted to the court said according to the BBC.

You don't say, Goldman earned someone's trust and then dumped a bunch of bad trades on the client right as the financial crisis was beginning? Unpossible.

Roger Masefield, a AQC for the LIA says the trades were executed between January and April 2008, and when the losses emerged, Masefield said one Libyan official described Goldman as the "bank of mafioso." The trades were on banking companies Citigroup, Santander and UniCredit, French electricity company EDF, utility ENI and German Insurer Allianz according to The Guardian.

And as The Guardian reports, while the LIA lost nearly all of its investment, Goldman generated more than $200 million from the trades according to Mansfield.

How exactly did Goldman gain the LIA's trust? Why by resorting to the vampire squid handbook of course, prostitutes and five star accommodations, courtesy of your friendly Goldman banker. Masefield told the court that one former Goldman executive named Youseff Kabbaj had been told to "stay a lot in Tripoli. It is important you stay super close to clients on a daily basis. Teach them, train them, dine them." – oh they were "dined" that's for sure.

As The Guardian explains

According to the skeleton argument presented to the court by the LIA: “Mr Kabbaj took Haitem Zarti on holidays to Morocco on various occasions. Mr Kabbaj also took him to Dubai for a conference, with the business class flights and five-star accommodation being paid by Goldman Sachs. Documents disclosed by Goldman Sachs show that during that drip Mr Kabbaj went so far as to arrange for a pair of prostitutes to entertain them both one evening.”

Oh, and don't forget the paid internship for Haitem Zerti, the brother of the LIA's former deputy chief – but that was based on merit we're sure.

Masefield says that Goldman had given Kabbaj a $4.5 million bonus for not airing concerns about the trades.

The LIA argued that the case was one of "abuse of trust, undue influence and unconscionable bargain", adding “It most emphatically is not, therefore, as Goldman Sachs would have it, one of little more than ‘buyer’s remorse’; of a counterparty who like many others lost money as a result of the market crash in 2008 and now wants to rewind the clock.”

* * *

Learning of Goldman's epic tales of unethical behavior and shady dealings never gets old. Someday, however, we suspect that clients will eventually get tired of being abused by the firm – but we aren't holding our breath.

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Gold Miner To Withhold Sales: “Storing It For The Long-term… Makes More Sense At These Prices”

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

Last year, following an attempt to motivate the Commodities Futures Trading Commission into investigating rampant manipulation of gold and silver prices, the Chief Executive of one of the world’s leading primary silver companies called on other producers to withhold precious metals from the market in an effort to stem the fraud. He recently reported that not a single producer contacted him to do so. But as precious metals prices fail to reflect the growing demand around the world, one company in particular is actively preparing to do exactly that.

MX Gold Corp CEO Akash Patel and CFO Kenneth Phillippe say that they are positioning their company to stockpile between 20% to 30% of their physical gold production in coming months, noting that prices are nowhere near where they should be at current supply and demand levels. In an interview with SGT Report, Phillipe appears to be taking the stance of many precious metals investors, which is to stockpile the physical asset in anticipation of any number of potentially cataclysmic economic and monetary events like the hyperinflation we are witnessing in Venezuela.

We want to pull out the physical gold… We want to take this gold and we want to store it. We believe that having the physical gold in the vault makes a lot more sense than selling it at these prices. Gold is ready to move. We believe it’s going to continue to rise… we’re going to be storing our gold and holding it for the long-term. 


(Full Interview at Youtube)

This whole entire industry – the gold market – is fueled by the economies.

 

With the economies… the state that they are in right now… where they are continuously printing more money… This is why I understand most people would like to put gold into their portfolio… Because it’s clear to me that people have to take precautions against the unknowable future.

 

We don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow. We don’t know if China is going to blow up. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the U.S. at any given time. They continuously keep printing.

 

 

We truly believe that people in the United States are not investing into T-bills… government paper is just not what people want at this point in time… gold is liquid… under all these market conditions we truly believe investors are going to acquire gold. Owning the physical gold is the only way to see a major increase [in wealth]…

 

The United States has gone on for eight years consecutively… and they haven’t gone anywhere. Everything that’s going on in the world… they’re not moving forward… they continue to print paper and the paper is worthless.

 

Gold is the only physical value we see out there. We also have a lot of silver. We also have a lot of copper… which are the byproducts that will pay for our gold production.

 

…You use what you need to sell to pay off all the bills, to pay off all the employees and keep the company moving forward…

 

But we would really like to look at banking some of this gold… keeping it physical and holding it for the long-term future.

 

We’re going to be pouring bars on site… hopefully 20% to 30% of all production physically into gold bars on the project. 

MX Gold is the first mining company to announce such a revolutionary strategy and it completely makes sense considering that some of the world’s largest investors are gobbling up everything they can get their hands on.

And while gold and silver are still shunned by the majority of the population and mainstream financial pundits, as Phillipe notes, this is not the case in China where lines out the door are a daily occurrence :

I have a close associate who just came back from China. He went to Beijing, Hong Kong and Singapore and he said that there are still people lined out the doors to get into these gold shops.

 

Everything in China is physical gold.

 

They’re selling gold bars… they’re selling gold ornaments… everything in China is being sold and it’s so busy… There is a lot of gold buying still going on.

And for good reason.

Whereas in the United States the former head of The Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke argues that gold is not money and is only held by some central banks as a matter of tradition, the Chinese government has been touting gold investing and stockpiling for several years.

They, of course, know what’s coming.

In the United States, however, the government and media have actively conspired to convince Americans that there is nothing to worry about because, in President Obama’s words, we’ve been saved from another Great Depression.

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French Anti-Terror Police Surround Location Of Man Who Killed Policeman, Took Hostages

It may well be nothing, but at a time when focus on any potential terrorist activity is at an unprecedented high, it is worth noting that moments ago the AFP reported that French anti-terror police has surrounded a house used by a man who allegedly killed a policemen and then took hostages in the Paris suburb of Magnanville.

As BNO News adds, the French police have surrounded a residence in Magnanville, just outside of Paris, where a family is being held hostage after the killing of a police officer. Only few details were immediately available.

The incident began at around 8:30 p.m. local time on Monday when a man approached a police officer outside his house in Magnanville and killed him.  The 45-year-old officer was attacked while returning home from work at about 9:00 p.m. local time, AFP reported, citing a source. According to RFI, the attacker then took the officer’s wife and son hostage in the home.

The ‘Elite Raid’ police officers were on the scene and a security perimeter was established, the report said.

A motive was not known but Reuters France reported: “Some neighbors believe hearing Islamist slogans proffered by the abuser.”

By 11:30 p.m., hostage negotiators had been able to make contact with the suspect, according to an interior ministry spokesman. He provided no details about a possible motive for the killing and hostage-taking, but the elite police unit RAID is at the scene.

The police officer who was killed was identified by local media as 40-year-old commander Jean-Baptiste Salvaing. It is believed the suspect may have been a neighbor of the victim.

Magnanville is located in Yvelines, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) northwest of Paris.

This is a developing story.

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Trump Revokes Press Credentials Of “Phony And Dishonest” Washington Post

Following his fiery, anti-immigration speech, Donald Trump continued to make waves when moments ago, the presumptive candidate announced he is rescinding the Washington Post’s credentials to cover his campaign events.  “Based on the incredibly inaccurate coverage and reporting of the record setting Trump campaign, we are hereby revoking the press credentials of the phony and dishonest Washington Post,” Trump posted on Facebook.

According to Politico, Trump had posted to Facebook nearly 20 minutes earlier “to show you how dishonest the phony Washington Post is.” “I am no fan of President Obama, but to show you how dishonest the phony Washington Post is, they wrote, ‘Donald Trump suggests President Obama was involved with Orlando shooting’ as their headline,” Trump said. “Sad!”

To be sure the animosity between the Jeff Bezos-owned WaPo and Trump is nothing new, but it has clearly escalated in this part of the news cycle, when after having been plagued by media coverage of his Judge Curiel comments (which has promptly disappeared from the newsflow), Trump felt a new bust of empowerment to reset the playing field according to his rules. That meant finally giving WaPo the boot on a day in which Trump felt confident enough his policies gave him enough cover for what others would promptly jump on as an attack on free speech, something Politico did when it defined Trump’s action as “his latest attack on the press.”

The article Trump appeared to be balking at came from a series of comments the candidate made on the morning news shows about Sunday’s mass shooting in Orlando that left 49 dead and at least 53 injured. “Trump seemed to repeatedly accuse President Obama on Monday of identifying with radicalized Muslims who have carried out terrorist attacks in the United States and being complicit in the mass shooting at a gay nightclub in Orlando over the weekend, the worst the country has ever seen,” the report begins.

“Look, we’re led by a man that either is not tough, not smart, or he’s got something else in mind. And the something else in mind — you know, people can’t believe it,” the Post quoted Trump as saying on Fox News Monday morning. “People cannot, they cannot believe that President Obama is acting the way he acts and can’t even mention the words ‘radical Islamic terrorism.’ There’s something going on. It’s inconceivable. There’s something going on.”

The WaPo in turn responded quickly: in a statement to Poynter, Washington Post Executive Editor Marty Baron had this to say:

Donald Trump’s decision to revoke The Washington Post’s press credentials is nothing less than a repudiation of the role of a free and independent press. When coverage doesn’t correspond to what the candidate wants it to be, then a news organization is banished. The Post will continue to cover Donald Trump as it has all along – honorably, honestly, accurately, energetically, and unflinchingly. We’re proud of our coverage, and we’re going to keep at it.

It was unclear if WaPo would also pull a Huffington Post relegate Trump to the comedy section.

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