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Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Those who seethe as their dollars lose value to inflation may be pleased to know that many states are now working to pass laws that would allow gold and silver to be used—not only for savings and investment but as everyday currency for purchases and payments as well.

The state of Utah took a major step last week toward the use of gold and silver as transactional currencies, allowing their use for state payments to vendors. A bill, sponsored by state Rep. Ken Ivory, passed the Utah state legislature on March 18 and is now awaiting the signature of Gov. Spencer Cox. 

If signed, this bill would make Utah the first state in America to pass a “transactional gold” bill.

“This is about making sure that people have choices,” Ivory told The Epoch Times. “It’s important that we give people a choice in how they store and transact their earnings and their savings.”

For Utah residents, the bill also addressed issues of local autonomy and preservation of savings, he said.

“We express our liberty and our work and our property in something called money, but where the dollar used to be money, now it’s just currency,” he said. “I think people want to see their earnings and property be reflected in real money again.”

Money functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. But the dollar has struggled to hold its value since it was delinked from gold.

“One of the key elements of precious metals is the ability to hopefully retain purchasing power of your money, and so if the dollar is being eroded by inflation, precious metals have typically been able to preserve purchasing power better than the fiat currency,” Utah state treasurer Marlo Oaks told The Epoch Times.

A Growing Movement to Use Gold as Money

State lawmakers believe they are on firm legal footing in establishing an alternative legal tender. While the U.S. Constitution gives the federal government the exclusive right to “coin money,” it also permits states to make “gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts.”

“That’s one of the key elements of why this is even possible … because it’s called out in the Constitution,” Oaks said. 

Utah is far from alone in this effort. Many other states are also working to accept gold as currency. 

According to Kevin Freeman, author of “Pirate Money” and a longstanding advocate for using gold as legal tender, the movement by states to legislate transactional gold has gained significant traction over the past several years.

“Now, 25 states have looked at this, and we’re getting even some traditionally blue states that are demonstrating interest,” Freeman told The Epoch Times. “We’ve picked up bipartisan support, and so my optimism is quite high.”

In February, legislators in Mississippi introduced a bill, HB 1064, to make gold and silver legal tender in the state. If the bill passes, it would allow citizens to use gold or silver coins to settle debts and for private transactions.

In December 2024, Missouri introduced the “Constitutional Money Act,” which among other things would recognize gold and silver as legal tender. 

Other states working to introduce or pass similar legislation include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming, according to an organization called Constitutional Currency, which is affiliated with Freeman’s work.

History on Their Side

Historically, gold functioned as money throughout the United States until the federal government intervened to force the transition to what ultimately became a “fiat” currency. The word “fiat” in Latin means “let it be done” in respect of decrees; regarding currencies it has come to mean that they are worth what the issuing government says they are worth, to the extent that people have confidence in the government that issues it.

According to a 2024 Federal Reserve report by Maria Hasenstab, until the 1930s, American banks had to keep gold reserves in their vaults equal to a designated percentage of the money they issued.

When the Great Depression hit in 1929, “people hoarded gold instead of depositing it in banks, which created an international gold shortage,” Hasenstab writes. “Countries around the world basically ran out of supply and were forced off the gold standard.”

A shortage of money caused prices to decline in the 1930s, causing the crisis to escalate. Farmers, for example, could no longer earn enough for their crops to repay bank loans, leading to defaults and the failure of many local banks. 

At the time, the Federal Reserve maintained a tight money supply, restricting credit and causing the U.S. economy to contract further. 

One of the first major efforts to transition Americans away from the use of gold as money occurred in 1933, when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt issued an executive order to seize privately-held gold, forcing Americans to hand over their gold coins, bullion, and gold certificates. Those who refused faced up to ten years in prison or a fine of $10,000, or both. 

This ended the use of gold for domestic transactions in the United States. 

Thereafter, the value of U.S. paper currency was linked to gold and could theoretically be exchanged into gold for international transactions until 1971, when President Richard Nixon ended this convertibility, leaving the dollar as a purely “fiat” currency.

Dollars Not Holding Value

However, Americans have experienced a dramatic erosion in the value of their money under the fiat currency system. Since Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard in 1971, the U.S. dollar suffered a cumulative inflation of 688 percent. An item you could have purchased for $1 in 1971 costs $7.88 today, according to the U.S. Inflation calculator.

By contrast, gold, which was worth about $40 an ounce in 1971, is trading in the range of $3,000 per ounce today. 

“In 1971, you could buy a house for $20,000 in Salt Lake, or 563 ounces of gold,” Ivory said. “Today, the average house is pushing $600,000, but with 563 ounces of gold you can buy more than three houses.

“Houses aren’t more expensive; they’re less expensive than ever on a fixed standard,” he said. “But our dollar has become this illusory standard where we’ve got unelected people deciding what the inflation rate is, which means how much of our money they’re going to take every year.”

During the past four years, Americans saw the value of their money fall by more than 20 percent, due to trillions of dollars in government spending that expanded the supply of money at a faster rate than the production of goods and services, driving up prices. And while inflation has come down from a high of more than 9 percent per year in 2022, it continues to hover around 3 percent today. 

A number of other issues regarding the dollar, including federal debt and spending, could also erode people’s confidence that it can maintain its value as a fiat currency.

“Certainly as part of our working group, there was a lot of discussion around the impact of inflation, the impact of the amount of debt we have, and the erosion, potentially, of the reserve status of the dollar,” Oaks said. “With BRICS and other foreign entities trying to move away from the dollar, you’ve seen central banks accumulate physical gold.”

The working group that produced Utah’s legislation included former Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles and former Citibank and American Express CFO Gary Crittenden.

Spending Gold with a Debit Card

According to Freeman, one thing that is necessary for gold to become a commonly used transactional currency is a proliferation of companies like Glint, which is based in the United Kingdom.

Glint holds gold deposits and issues debit cards that allow depositors to spend their gold deposits in any amount and in multiple currencies. The company states on its website that it “offers an alternative to fiat currencies enabling our clients to buy, save, and spend allocated gold with the flexibility of Mastercard.”

“It’s really the result of technological advancements that enable fractional gold transactions as easy as using a debit card,” Oaks said. “The value [of gold deposits] is tracked for you, and you can transact in the economy with the card technology that we have.”

While Freeman hopes that gold and silver will one day be widely available as a transactional currency, he expects this will be an alternative to, rather than a replacement for, the U.S. dollar.

“I don’t see it necessarily replacing the American dollar, unless the dollar were to fail,” he said. 

“But money has changed a lot,” he said. “Now, we have Tap to Pay and Venmo and Bitcoin and PayPal; this is just another way to pay.”

Private ownership. Individualism. Property rights. Wealth creation.

Equity. Welfare. Eliminating class disparities. To each according to his need…

Which way western man?

Visit the ZeroHedge homepage tonight at 7pm ET for our live Capitalism vs Socialism Debate, with socialist Rutgers Professor Ben Burgis facing off against capitalist Editor of the Libertarian Institute Keith Knight. The debate will be moderated by Erik Townsend, host of the MacroVoices podcast.

While it is clear where most ZH readers fall on the issue, best understand those who seek to control you.

As a primer for the debate, below are snapshots into each participants’ positions.

Socialist

No owning beaches, no owning property, and… well maybe there’s common ground on the last one.

Capitalist (ancap)

This sum it up the sentiment well…

Agreed.

Abolish democracy aka gang rape and decriminalize all economic activity between consenting adults.

— Voluntaryist Keith (@an_capitalist) January 10, 2025

We’ll see you tonight at 7pm ET.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said on March 25 that government officials likely will not be using the Signal messaging app after The Atlantic magazine’s editor-in-chief was inadvertently included in a group chat with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and national security adviser Mike Waltz.

When asked about the Signal chat during remarks at the White House on March 25, Trump said: “A lot of times you find out defects by exactly things like that, but I don’t think it’s something we’re looking forward to using again.

“We may be forced to use it. You may be in a situation where you need speed as opposed to gross safety, and you may be forced to use it, but generally speaking, I think we probably won’t be using it very much.”

The fallout came after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, alleged that he saw a discussion between Hegseth and other officials take place in a group chat he was added to in the Signal messaging app hours before strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen ordered by Trump earlier this month.

The National Security Council has since said the text chain Goldberg reported “appears to be authentic” and that it is looking into how a journalist’s number was added to the chain.

Hegseth spoke to reporters in Hawaii on March 24 and disputed Goldberg’s account, insisting that no war plans were texted in the chat. He also raised questions about Goldberg’s credibility. Goldberg, who published an article in The Atlantic about the group chat, later told MSNBC that his article was based on what he saw in the Signal chat. He accused Hegseth of trying to deflect from the allegations.

Signal uses end-to-end encryption for its messaging and calling services, which prevents any third party from viewing conversation content or listening in on calls. It is considered a popular app for direct messaging, group chats, phone calls, and video calls.

When asked about the use of the chat app, Trump said he “wasn’t involved” but only “heard about it.”

“I hear it’s used by a lot of groups,” he said. “It’s used by the media a lot. It’s used by a lot of the military and, I think, successfully, but sometimes somebody can get onto those things.

“That’s one of the prices you pay when you’re not sitting in the Situation Room with no phones on, which is always the best, frankly … the best is to be there.”

Earlier in the day, Trump told NBC News that Waltz or a member of his staff had added Goldberg to the chat but defended his national security adviser. He echoed those comments during his remarks in the White House on March 25 and said Waltz does not need to apologize. He suggested that news outlets’ response to the reports has been overblown.

“They’ve made a big deal out of this because we’ve had two perfect months,” Trump said, pivoting to the economy and policies he has initiated since taking office in January. “We’re bringing in business; we have another one announced tomorrow.”

After the recent reports, the president of Signal defended the app, although she did not directly address The Atlantic article.

“Signal is the gold standard in private comms,” Signal President Meredith Whittaker wrote in a post on social media platform X in response to a report that compared Signal to WhatsApp. She attempted to differentiate Signal from WhatsApp, which is owned by Meta Platforms.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting nations in Paris who make up a ‘coalition of the willing’ in their continued support to Ukraine, and on Thursday he has announced that sanctions on Russia will not be lifted, as unanimously agreed to among participants.

The twenty-seven heads of mostly European states and governments represented there further agreed there will be no easing of sanctions in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire.

A new Black Sea peace initiative was unveiled by Washington at the Riyadh talks, and agreed to by both warring parties as of Wednesday, and would see Russian food and agricultural sanctions lifted, as well as the reconnection of Russian agricultural banks to the international Swift payment system.

The Wall Street Journal’s Yaroslav Trofimov points out that “The lifting of sanctions on banking, as demanded by Russia, cannot be done without European say so. Now what?”

Russia has said the naval ceasefire would only come into force after Washington lifts sanctions against its food and fertilizer trade. The energy and Black Sea ceasefires were first announced Tuesday.

There was already severe disagreement with Ukraine concerning its scope and implementation, but Moscow said it was willing to play ball. “In accordance with the agreement between the presidents of Russia and the United States, both sides have committed to implementing the Black Sea initiative,” a Kremlin statement had announced, affirming the US-backed agreement.

“This initiative includes guaranteeing safe navigation in the Black Sea, refraining from the use of force, and prohibiting the use of commercial vessels for military purposes, while establishing appropriate control measures through inspections of such vessels.”

But Ukraine on the same day had already accused Moscow of “lying” about the terms of the agreement: The Ukrainian defense ministry said the movement of Russian warships outside the “eastern part of the Black Sea” would be treated as a violation of the agreement, according to regional media.

Thus it seems both Kiev and Europe are setting up the Trump-backed partial ceasefire to fail before it even gets off the ground.

As for Macron, he said Thursday that while he welcomes the role of Presdient Trump in overseeing the peace talks, the stance of the ‘coalition of the willing’ remains clear. “fundamentally, to win peace, and to do this, we must place Ukraine in the best possible position to negotiate and ensure that the peace that will be negotiated will be solid and lasting,” he said.

He charged that it remains Russia who is unwilling to abide by terms of the proposed ceasefires, and has been adding unacceptable conditions. The UK’s Starmer too said in Paris that “There was absolute clarity that Russia is trying to delay [peace], is playing games, and we have to be absolutely clear about that.”

Building a robust peace for Ukraine and Europe. pic.twitter.com/xW2yAkrshf

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) March 27, 2025

The British prime minister also hailed “complete clarity that now is not the time for lifting of sanctions.” He went so far to say “Quite the contrary, what we discussed is how we can increase sanctions to support the US initiative, to bring Russia to the table through further pressure from this group of countries.”

“What came out was strong from the meeting was so many countries standing, as they’ve stood for over three years now, with Ukraine in this crucial moment for as long as it takes for” he said. This certainly pushes peace back further on the horizon – but at this point Moscow is probably OK with that, as its forces gobble up more territory. The longer this drags on, the worse the ground reality gets for the Ukrainian side.

*  *  *

Buy any 2 bags of coffee and receive a free ZeroHedge Tumbler!

After two straight months of sizable declines, US pending home sales were expected to rise modestly (+1.0% MoM) in February and they were right as sales rose 2.0% MoM. However, that was not enough to spring sales off record lows as pending home sales dropped 7.2% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Contract signings on existing US homes rose 2% to 72 in February, after a storm-battered January that crippled house-hunting, dragging NAR’s Pending Home Sales index barely off record lows…

“Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

Source: Bloomberg

Pending sales climbed 6.2% in the South, the US’s biggest home-selling region, following a 9.2% decline a month earlier. 

The Midwest registered a more modest increase, while pending sales in the West and Northeast fell.

Heavy snowfall especially in the South likely delayed homebuying, pushing deals that would’ve been struck a month earlier into February.

However, sales won’t improve meaningfully until mortgage rates fall back to 5% or lower, according to a 2025 housing outlook from JPMorgan and the Mortgage Bankers Association sees rates staying above 6% at least through next year. 

The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 6.71% in the week ended March 21, according to MBA.

Finally, bear in mind that pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

While it is as stale as 3 month old milk, and therefor completely useless especially ahead of tomorrow’s personal income/core PCE report, moments ago the BLS reported its 2nd revision to Q4 GDP which was revised up to 2.4% compared to the second est. of 2.3%, and above the median consensus of 2.3% (+2.2% to +2.6%) from 55 economists. The final Q4 print was down from 3.1% in Q3. The increase, however, wasn’t due to stronger consumption (this declined from 4.2% to 4.0%, below the 4.2% estimate) but mostly due to trade and downward revised imports. Additionally, inflation prints were more muted, with 4Q GDP price index rising 2.3% vs second est. of +2.4%, and the 4Q core PCE q/q rising 2.6%, also below the second est. of +2.7%.

According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

As shown in the chart below, GDP was revised up 0.1% point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports.

Specifically, here is the breakdown of the 2.4% print by component:

• Personal Consumption: 2.70%
• Fixed Investment: -0.2%
• Change in private inventories: -0.84%
• Exports: -0.01%
• Imports: 0.27%
• Government consumption: 0.52%

For a grand total of 2.440%

Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports turned down.

From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP reflected an increase of 2.3 percent in real value added for private goods-producing industries, an increase of 2.4 percent for private services-producing industries, and an increase of 2.7 percent for government.

Real gross output increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, reflecting an increase of 0.3 percent for private goods-producing industries, an increase of 2.0 percent for private services-producing industries, and an increase of 3.1 percent for government.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.4 percent, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.

Bottom line: this was just another meaningless print, not just because it is beyond stale now – when the entire market looks ahead to the consequences of trade war – but also because a much more updated version of the core PCE data will come in exactly 24 hours.

Headline initial jobless claims rose by 224k last week – a very boring, very steady, very non-recessionary signal that the labor market is just fine despite all the partisan panic in ‘soft’ data surveys…

Michigan and Texas saw the biggest decline in jobless claims last week, while Oregon and Kentucky saw the biggest increase…

Nationwide continuing jobless claims continue to oscillate around 1.9 million Americans…

Of course, all eyes are on DC and the impact of DOGE. While initial jobless claims are slowing in the region (as a multitude of lawsuits stall the process of draining the swamp)…

…we note that continuing jobless claims in DC are now at their highest since 2021…

And across the Deep Tristate, jobless claims continue to rise…

So, is DOGE winning?

US stock futures faded earlier gains, but were also off session lows after a tariff-driven selloff in equities on Wednesday which hit the Mag7 names. Futures on the S&P 500 are flat after Trump announced 25% uniform tariffs on auto imports, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% amid a reversal of the Monday price action as investors seem to be back to the recession playbook ahead of April 2 announcement. Mag 7, Cyclicals and High Short Interest are among the worst performing baskets, while Defensives outperformed. AI and data center names faced a slew of negative catalysts so far this week, including NVDA’s China environmental curbs, sell-side report on MSFT lease cancellation, BABA’s comments earlier this week: NVDA-5.7%; JPM’s Data Center basket -3.0%. Commodities are higher led by oil and base metals. Outside the US, China ADRs outperformed US domestics with KWEB up 54bps today as China PBOC adviser promised (once again) that China will ramp up stimulus if growth falters.

In premarket trading, shares of US automakers and auto-parts suppliers dropped with peers in Europe also declining following Trump’s tariff announcement. Gamestop fell as the company said it plans to offer convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin. Nvidia slips, leading Mag7 declines and extending losses into a third straight session amid growing concerns over the outlook for spending on AI (Alphabet -0.3%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.1%, Meta -0.5%, Nvidia -1.7% and Tesla +0.5%). Automaker stocks fall after President Donald Trump hit auto imports with a 25% tariff starting next week. Analysts say Ford and General Motors are set to see the biggest impact, while Stellantis and Tesla are in a better position (General Motors -6%, Ford -0.7%, Stellantis’s US-listed shares -1.6%; Auto-parts firms: Autoliv -3%, Magna -1.8, BorgWarner -0.7%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• 3D Systems (DDD) falls 5% after the 3D-printing company issued annual forecasts for revenue and adjusted gross margin that trailed Wall Street expectations.
• AMD (AMD) slips 3% after Jefferies downgraded the chipmaker to hold, with analysts citing limited traction in artificial intelligence among other negatives.
• Cava Group (CAVA) climbs 2% as the company will replace Altair Engineering Inc. in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on March 31.
• Coursera (COUR) falls 2.2% after Bank of America resumed coverage of the online educational firm with an underperform rating, citing a “muted” 2025 revenue growth outlook.
• GameStop (GME) drops 6% as the company seeks to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases as it embraces a strategy that was developed by the cryptocurrency advocate Michael Saylor.
• Jefferies (JEF) slips 5% after fiscal first-quarter earnings declined amid a drop in investment-banking and capital-markets revenue, with activity hurt by uncertainty around US policy and geopolitics.
• MicroVision (MVIS) falls 5% after the electronics components company reported fourth-quarter revenue that trailed Wall Street projections and a wider-than-anticipated loss.
• Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) gains 6% after the retailer provided a 1Q forecast for adj. Ebitda that topped expectations and said the company expects double-digit improvement in the metric this year.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) climbs about 1% after the financial services platform introduced several new products at a Wednesday event, including Robinhood Strategies, Robinhood Banking and Robinhood Cortex.
• Soleno (SLNO) jumps 36% after the biotech won US FDA approval for its Vykat extended-release tablets for the treatment of a condition where sufferers have a sense of being hungry all the time.
• Verint (VRNT) drops 12% after the customer-service software firm reported adjusted revenue and profits for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

Worries over President Donald Trump’s tariffs hit markets again on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 halting a three-day win streak to close down 1.1%. Trump implemented a 25% levy on auto imports, while threatening further duties on the EU and Canada. The S&P 500 fell 10% between February and March over concern that harsher tariffs will lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation. The index then staged a mild recovery since hitting a low on March 13, but now all eyes are on the so-called reciprocal tariffs, with details due on April 2, the so-called “Liberation Day.”

“Tariffs are front and center on people’s minds,” said Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “We all know that tariffs are stagflationary and markets have been trying to price that to different extents. What we don’t know yet is what’s the ultimate lasting impact.”

The tariff drama is also casting doubt over European equities’ recent outperformance against US peers. Pictet’s Sai has downgraded his view on Europe, citing an inevitable hit to economic growth and earnings. Over at BlackRock Investment Institute, managers expect US stocks to soon regain their edge. 

“We have been overweight global equities over fixed income for many, many quarters – even as valuations looked increasingly stretched. But for the first time in years, we find ourselves genuinely worried about risk assets,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman for research at Barclays. “Cash allocations should be higher until policy clarity stages at least a mild comeback.”

Technology stocks have come under heavier pressure in recent sessions, as investors question how much longer will the artificial intelligence boom cycle last. Such anxiety resurfaced on Wednesday after a team of TD Cowen analysts said Microsoft Corp. has walked away from new data center projects in the US and Europe.

European stocks also fell as the US pushed ahead with harsh tariffs on automakers and threatened more sweeping trade levies, reinforcing investor concern about the hit to global economic growth. The Stoxx 600 slid 0.5%. Stellantis NV, which makes the Jeep Compass SUV in Mexico, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell about 3%. Traders also sold US auto shares, with General Motors Co. tumbling 6% in pre-market trading. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Next shares rise as much as 9% after the UK fashion retailer said it’s made a stronger-than-expected start to the new year and boosted its profit guidance.
• Umicore shares rise as much as 11% after the materials technology company outlined ambitious targets for 2028, with its earnings goal coming in above analyst expectations.
• Coor shares gain as much as 6.1% after the Swedish facility services firm’s price target was raised to SEK52 from SEK48 at DNB.
• Sofina advances as much as 3.3% after releasing its full-year results, with KBC Securities subsequently boosting its price target and saying this is the year in which the investment company “bounces back.”
• European auto stocks fall after President Donald Trump announced a “permanent” 25% tariff on any car not produced in the US.
• UBS shares fall as much as 5.6% as Bank of America downgrades the lender to underperform, saying the lack of clarity on regulation is likely to drag on for months.
• Air France-KLM, EasyJet shares fall as Deutsche Bank downgrades the stocks. The bank cuts earnings forecasts for firms across Europe’s transport sector, noting near-term downside risks to GDP for the US and Europe.
• MFE shares dropped as much as 7.2% in Milan, before paring declines, after the company owned by Italy’s Berlusconi family launched a tender offer on ProSiebenSat.1 Media in a bid to tighten its grip over the German entertainment company.
• Trigano shares drop as much as 15%, the most since 2021, after the maker of motorhomes and leisure vehicles reported a steeper fall in quarterly revenue than anticipated.
• eDreams falls as much as 18% after a shareholder offloaded shares in the firm at a discount to yesterday’s close.
• Kontron shares dive as much as 6.2%, the most in over two months, after the German IT firm experienced a more challenging fourth-quarter than anticipated, according to analysts.

Asian equities edged lower as President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs and threat of more levies on Europe and Canada weighed on sentiment. Chinese shares advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6% before paring the loss, with benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan underperforming. Toyota Motor slumped following Trump’s decision to slap 25% tariffs on all cars that aren’t manufactured in the US. TSMC was the biggest drag on the gauge after a report that China’s energy rules for advanced chips could dent Nvidia’s sales. Asian equities have been range-bound recently as traders brace for Trump’s renewed tariff offensive to land on April 2. For the month, the MSCI Asia benchmark has gained nearly 3% and is headed for its best monthly performance since September. Benchmarks on Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rallied before ending the day with modest gains of around 0.3%. Optimism over China’s AI breakthrough and supportive macro policy has helped the market beat peers this year. 

In FX, the dollar slipped as investors weighed the possibility that President Trump’s latest tariffs could limit the country’s growth potential, although the realty is that the tariffs will lead to a recession elsewhere much faster. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, reversing the previous day’s 0.3% gain. JPY and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, while GBP and NZD are outperforming. Trump “could be recognizing that his trade policies might be having a ricocheting effect on the US consumers and business owners,” said Fiona Lim, a senior strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore. “That makes US dollar gains susceptible to reversal.” USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 150.97, outperforming as the Trump’s latest announcement to slap a 25% tax on Japanese auto imports hit home the prospect that the Japanese economy will suffer from tariffs, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious on raising interest rates. Earlier, the Norwegian krone recovered losses versus the euro after Norges Bank delayed a cut in borrowing costs until later this year as inflation picked up. Elsewhere in Asia, Indian stocks rose ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts. The Nifty 50 Index is on pace for its biggest monthly advance since at least June 2024. 

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 4bps to 4.39% after St Louis Fed President Musalem stuck to the central bank’s position that it is in no hurry to keep cutting rates, while voicing concerns that trade levies will fan inflation. Musalem said it’s not clear the impact of tariffs will prove temporary, and cautioned that secondary effects could prompt officials to hold interest rates steady for longer. Euro-area bond yields slipped as expectations grew that the central bank will cut interest rates to cushion the fallout from trade-related shocks; German 10-year yields have nearly erased their drop and are at 2.78%. UK bonds slumped across the curve, underperforming US Treasuries and German bunds, amid lingering concerns over the government’s fiscal position. UK 10-year yields are up 7 basis points to 4.80%, and at the highest since January. Focal points of US session include $44 billion 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time and economic data slate including weekly jobless claims and final 4Q GDP revision. 

In commodities, WTI crude is trading within Wednesday’s range, falling 0.1% to around $69.56. Spot gold is up roughly $35 to near $3,055/oz.  Gold has been benefiting from haven demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ramped up its forecast to $3,300 an ounce by year-end, the latest in a series of banks to up their prediction. Bitcoin has risen to above $87,000. 

The US economic calendar includes 4Q GDP revision, February wholesale inventories, and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), February pending home sales (10am) and March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin and Collins (both 4:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,756.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 544.30
• MXAP down 0.1% to 188.48
• MXAPJ down 0.2% to 588.03
• Nikkei down 0.6% to 37,799.97
• Topix little changed at 2,815.47
• Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 23,578.80
• Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,373.75
• Sensex up 0.5% to 77,708.16
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,969.04
• Kospi down 1.4% to 2,607.15
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.75%
• Euro up 0.1% to $1.0765
• Brent Futures down 0.4% to $73.51/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $3,034.94
• US Dollar Index little changed at 104.49

Top Overnight News

• President Trump posted on Truth “If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!”
• President Trump announced the US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber. Trump stated auto tariffs are going into effect on April 2nd and will start being collected on April 3rd, as well as noted that he will have a news conference on April 2nd which is the real Liberation Day. Furthermore, reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd will be on all tariffs but they will be lenient and in many cases, the tariffs will be less than the tariff charged on the US.
• President Trump said there will be some form of a deal on TikTok and if the deal is not finished, it will be extended. Trump said there are numerous ways to buy TikTok and there is a lot of interest in TikTok, while he added that China has to play a role and he may give China a little reduction in tariffs to get it done
• China reject Trump’s offer of tariff waivers in exchange for TikTok deal, according to AFP
• OpenAI is said to be close to a SoftBank-led $40 billion funding deal that would double its valuation to $300 billion. The AI developer’s funding round would be the largest of all time. BBG
• US President Trump effectively cut 10% of funding for the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security which is the key agency in the US-China tech race: BBG
• The Trump administration’s deep cuts to the federal workforce and research funding threaten to erode the quality and credibility of “gold standard” US statistics, economists have warned. US data, from the jobs report to inflation indices, can swing the Street’s $105tn stock and bond markets in milliseconds, and underpin policies that influence the trajectory of the world’s biggest economy. FT
• Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on Thursday pledged stronger policy support for the world’s No.2 economy, which he said had started 2025 well and was on track to hit this year’s growth target, buoyed by advancements in AI and other technologies. RTRS
• Chinese financial authorities have told some companies and advisers that they can begin the process of launching mainland initial public offerings once more, in an early sign of a rebound in listings in the world’s second largest economy. Authorities have informed groups in the tech, advanced manufacturing, and consumer sectors in the past few weeks that they can file IPO paperwork. FT
• China may inject up to $260 billion of liquidity into developers this year, Bloomberg Economics said. Meanwhile the biggest banks are said to be accelerating write-offs of soured property loans to clean up their balance sheets. BBG
• Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba said he won’t rule out taking countermeasures against the 25% tariff on US car imports. The new levies greatly reduce the likelihood of the BOJ raising rates on May 1, central bank watchers said. BBG
• Ukraine is reviewing a economic partnership proposal from the US that may be signed as soon as next week, Scott Bessent told Fox. European leaders are meeting in Paris today to try to carve a role for themselves in the US-led ceasefire talks. BBG
• Donald Trump said he’d impose tariffs “far larger than currently planned” on Canada and the EU if they work together against the US. Earlier, he announced a 25% levy on all car imports, effective next week. Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on all nations, Trump added, though rates may be lower than expected. Trump also said he’d consider lowering levies on China to secure a TikTok deal. BBG
• Copper traders are racing against time to ship the metal to the US before tariffs hit in weeks — not months. They risk losses on shipping costs and that may wipe out profits for those that locked in the spread between Comex and LME prices. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

• White House official said Commerce Secretary Lutnick informed President Trump that national security concerns raised in the earlier autos probe remain and may have escalated. The official stated the 25% tariff applies to autos and auto parts, in addition to any other duties or fees, while the new 25% tariff will be added to the existing 25% tariff on light trucks and cars coming to the US under USMCA will be tariffed according to their foreign part content. Furthermore, the official stated that tariffs take effect after midnight on April 3rd and it was also reported that Trump’s autos proclamation provides a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports until May 3rd.
• Canadian PM Carney said Trump’s tariff announcement is a direct attack on Canadian workers and they will defend their country, while he will convene a high-level meeting on Thursday to discuss trade options and noted that tariffs will hurt Canada but the country will emerge stronger. Furthermore, he said if retaliatory tariffs are appropriate, Canada will take steps in its own interest and that Ottawa will react soon in which it can introduce retaliatory tariffs, while he is sure he will speak to Trump soon.
• Ontario’s Premier said he spoke to PM Carney and they agreed Canada needs to stand firm, strong and united, while he fully supports the government preparing retaliatory tariffs to show that Canada will never back down.
• Unifor said regarding US auto tariffs that President Trump fails to understand the chaos and damages tariffs will inflict on workers and consumers in both Canada and the US.
• Mexico’s Foreign Minister held a call with US Deputy Secretary of State Landau in which they talked about security, migration and commerce, while they agreed to exchange information regularly and to schedule a face-to-face meeting in the near future, according to Mexico’s Exterior Ministry
• European Commission President Von der Leyen said she deeply regrets the US decision to impose tariffs on European automotive exports, while the European Commission will assess the announcement along with other measures the US is expected to unveil in the coming days and the EU will continue to seek negotiated solutions while safeguarding its economic interests.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said various options are on the table for consideration regarding US auto tariffs and need to think about the appropriate response. Ishiba added that Japan is making the largest investment in the US and questions whether it makes sense to apply higher auto tariffs equally to all countries, which is a point it has made and will continue to make to the US.
• China’s ambassador to the US said using fentanyl as an excuse to raise taxes for no reason will only turn another point of cooperation into a point of friction, while the ambassador added that the development of China-US relations has reached a new and important juncture and hopes the US will work with China in the same direction.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with cautiousness seen after Trump’s latest tariff salvo in which he announced the US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2nd and reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenient, and in many cases, tariffs will be less than the tariffs charged on the US. ASX 200 declined with the index dragged lower by underperformance in tech, real estate and financials but with further downside stemmed by resilience in utilities and the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 slipped back beneath the 38,000 level with automakers among the worst hit following Trump’s 25% auto  tariff announcement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with outperformance in Hong Kong amid a slew of earnings releases and after US President Trump also suggested he may give China a little reduction in tariffs to get a TikTok deal done, while China’s Vice Premier vowed to push forward reforms to help high-quality economic growth in a speech at the Boao Forum.

Top Asian News

• China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said at the Boao Forum that there is a significant rise in uncertainties in the world and that China will resolutely oppose protectionism, as well as promote globalisation and safeguard free trade. Ding said China’s economy has had a good start this year and the improving trend in China’s economy has become more consolidated, while he is confident in China achieving its growth target and contributing to Asia and world growth. Furthermore, he said they will push forward key reforms to help high-quality economic growth, promote the development of private firms and make greater efforts to promote the healthy development of the property and stock market.
• Chinese FX Regulator Deputy Head says will resolutely prevent overshooting risks in CNY exchange rates; will keep CNY exchange rate basically stable.

European bourses were primed for a softer open with losses accelerating modestly thereafter given the latest US tariff rhetoric, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Auto names lag given the focus of Trump’s commentary with marked pressure in names across the board though they are off lows. H3C says NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 chip stocks are nearly depleted, new shipments are due Mid April, according to a client notice; H3C will distribute the chips based on profit margins. Microsoft (MSFT) mulls developing own high-end generative AI, according to Nikkei citing Microsoft CEO Nadella; CEO added that having its proprietary platform will make it easier to provide services optimised for its business software.

Top European News

 

• ECB’s Kazaks says we can probably keep cutting rates if the baseline holds, adds uncertainty is really high and geopolitics is the main cause.
• ECB’s Wunsch says the ECB is facing a difficult balancing act as tariffs would be bad for the economy and inflationary, via CNBC; a pause should be on the table in April. Unclear what the impact of the recent German fiscal announcement will be. Inflation risks might be on the upside.
• ECB’s Villeroy says France needs to bring the deficit back to the 3% mark Earlier: French 2024 budget deficit at 5.8% of GDP vs gov’t exp. 6.0% (5.4% in 2023), via INSEE.
• UK Chancellor says UK is in “intense negotiations” with the US on all tariffs and “working on” exempting the UK because “we don’t run a surplus”, via BBC.

FX

• DXY in the red after gaining on Wednesday, currently posting a slightly mixed performance against peers. DXY pivoting the 104.50 mark and awaiting tariff developments alongside a handful of other drivers.
• EUR is modestly firmer but off a 1.0787 high against the USD, yet to make its way back onto a 1.08 handle and approach yesterday’s peak @ 1.0803. To the downside, attention is on the 200DMA @ 1.0729.
• Cable is back above the 1.29 handle with the recovery from Wednesday’s pressure a tentative one and we are still shy of that session’s 1.2949 peak. Specifics light thus far, with commentary very much just digesting the statement and tariff implications.
• USD/JPY has extended on yesterday’s upside with JPY the worst performer across the majors. Fresh macro drivers for Japan are light as markets look ahead to Tokyo CPI overnight. Finds itself at a 150.96 peak.
• NOK picked up on the Norges Bank announcement (details below), with EUR/NOK knee jerking to a 11.3374 low before then paring modestly.
• Antipodeans attempting to recoup lost ground and take advantage of USD downside, of note is the suggestion that Trump could give China some tariff relief for a TikTok deal.
• Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025; Q4-2025 Repo Path 4.21% (prev. 3.80%).
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1763 vs exp. 7.2728 (Prev. 7.1754).

Fixed Income

• Modest divergence between EGBs and USTs with Bunds firmer and yields lower given the growth implications of the latest tariff commentary, though Bunds have faded from early 128.69 peaks and are at session lows some 40 ticks below but still just in the green.
• USTs meanwhile find themselves in the red, with yields picking up on the global and US inflationary implications of such action, as such yields are firmer with the curve steepening ahead of data and 7yr supply; a sale which follows a robust 2yr and more a tepid 5yr outing earlier in the week.
• Gilts in the red despite opening with very modest gains. Pressure which comes given the inflationary implications of the above and despite officials in the UK stressing that they do not plan to retaliate to US action and are seeking favourable deals. Thus far, at a 90.55 trough, below Wednesday’s 90.75 low which printed during the statement.
• Reuters calculations suggest China stepped up fiscal support and accelerated bond issuance to the highest on record in Q1 2025, issuing a total of CNY 3.28tln.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are both in the red with sentiment feeling heavy amid the US administration’s ongoing tariff rhetoric. Otherwise, rhetoric has been light but prices found somewhat of a floor around the time that Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister said that given the current circumstances, it is impossible that Russia will make any concessions on strategic stability, and there is no concrete agreement on the Black Sea deal.
• WTI May resides in a USD 69.22-69.96/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 73.35-73.97/bbl.
• Dutch TTF shifts between modest gains and losses in early European hours, with complex-specific newsflow light this morning but with traders cognizant of the heating season coming to an end, with stockpiling season ahead.
• Precious metals are mostly firmer with gold gaining on haven flows and most recently extending above the USD 3050/oz mark, a much which occurred without a fresh fundamental driver and may be more technically driven.
• Base metals hit on the risk tone and tariff commentary. 3M LME copper current resides in a USD 9,828.80-9,997.75/t range at the time of writing.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said US attacks on Houthis will continue for a long time.
• Hamas spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanoua was killed in an Israeli airstrike on northern Gaza, according to Hamas media cited by Reuters. In relevant news, Lebanese media reported an Israeli march targeted a car on a road in Tyre in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
• “US official to Al-Arabiya: The Pentagon is considering plans to deploy additional forces in the Middle East”, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry says recent Russia-US contacts are at the beginning of a long and difficult process of restoring relations, according to RIA.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says given the current circumstances, it is impossible that Russia will make any concessions on strategic stability, via Tass; no concrete agreement on Black Sea deal.
• European Council President Costa says EU must keep the pressure on Russia via sanctions and he will convey this message in today’s leaders’ meeting on Ukraine
• North Korean leader Kim supervised tests of kamikaze drones and the nation was presumed to send at least 3,000 more troops to Russia, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
  • 4Q Personal Consumption, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
  • 4Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
  • 4Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
• 08:30: Feb. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$138b, prior -$153.3b, revised -$155.6b
• 08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 223,000
  • March Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
• 08:30: Feb. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
  • Feb. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.8%
• 10:00: Feb. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 1.0%, prior -4.6%
  • Feb. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -5.2%
• 11:00: March Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Shortly after the US market close last night, President Trump announced additional 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, which will start to be collected from April 3. President Trump framed the tariffs as “permanent”, and the tariffs will apply not just to fully assembled cars, but also to key auto parts, including engines, transmissions and electrical components with the tariffs on auto parts set to take effect no later than May 3. President Trump separately said that reciprocal tariffs were still coming on April 2, although he later added that these will be “very lenient”, while also mentioning upcoming tariffs on pharmaceuticals and lumber. President Trump also said that Republicans in Congress would work on approving tax deductions on car interest rate payments.

The announcement on auto tariffs came after the US close, but the shares of automakers lost ground in after-hours trading as a result. For instance, General Motors was down -6.26%, whilst Ford fell -4.66%. That’s been echoed in Asian markets overnight, with Toyota down -2.72%, making it one of the weaker performers in the Nikkei, which itself has fallen -0.96%. Looking forward, DAX futures have also slumped another -0.75% overnight, reflecting the number of automakers in the index and Germany’s dependence on trade. However, US equities have showed signs of stabilising this morning, with S&P 500 futures up +0.11%.

Before the tariff announcement, equities had shown some signs of bottoming out, which followed a WSJ story that President Trump and his trade team were considering a narrower tariff regime than they once envisaged. But a negative tone still dominated overall, as reports had already come out that President Trump was preparing an announcement on auto tariffs (before any specifics came out) leading to a clear risk-off mood, which also wasn’t helped by an FT report claiming that EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič expected US tariffs “in the realm of 20%”. Unsurprisingly, the most-exposed sectors took a particular hit, and Europe’s STOXX Automobiles and Parts Index ended the session down -2.56%. The moves also meant the German DAX (-1.17%) underperformed, and US automakers also lost ground, with GM down -3.12% in the main session, before the subsequent -6.26% decline after-hours.

That tariff hit was evident more broadly among global equities. In the US, the Magnificent 7 (-3.00%) saw a particularly large slump, reversing course after its strongest 3-day performance since the US election. In turn, that dragged down the S&P 500 (-1.12%), which fell back even though a narrow majority of the index’s components actually moved higher on the day, which just goes to show how much influence the Mag 7 still have. Some of the more defensive sectors including consumer staples (+1.42%) and utilities (+0.70%) put in a solid performance, but Nvidia (-5.74%) and Tesla (-5.58%) led the declines, ending the session as the 5th and 7th worst performers in the S&P 500, respectively. There was also a team of equity analysts who said Microsoft (-1.31%) had walked away from more data centre projects. Their note last month, that first discussed this trend, was part of the reason the Mag-7 sell-off gathered some momentum in February. Earlier in the, week Alibaba chairman Joe Tsai warned of a potential bubble in data centres. So one to continue to watch. Back in Europe, there was also a slump across the board led by tech and auto stocks, with the STOXX 600 (-0.70%) posting its biggest daily decline in two weeks.

Elsewhere, the tariff news also saw copper futures (+0.64%) rise to a record high, which followed Bloomberg’s report that US copper tariffs could happen within several weeks, which would be much sooner than the 270-day deadline for the investigation launched last month. So that added to fears about inflationary pressures, pushing the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.9bps) up to a one-month closing high of 4.35%. Matters also weren’t helped by a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+1.05%) up to its highest level so far this month, at $73.79/bbl. So by the close, the US 1yr inflation swap was up +3.5bps to 3.02%, only just beneath its recent closing peak of 3.05% last month. Higher yields and the risk-off tone helped the dollar index (+0.33%) rise to its highest in three weeks.

Whilst tariffs were the main global news story yesterday, there were several economic headlines from the UK too, as the government announced fresh spending cuts at their Spring Statement. The context is that without the cuts, the government would have risked breaching their fiscal rules, thanks to a combination of growth downgrades and higher bond yields since their Budget in October. So if they hadn’t done anything, their margin against the rules would have been cut from £9.9bn in October to -£4.1bn today. However, the latest measures have now restored that headroom back to £9.9bn, which include benefit changes and reforms to public services. Nevertheless, it’s still quite a narrow margin by historical standards, and the OBR judged that the probability of meeting the fiscal mandate (for the current budget to balance in 2029-30) is only 54%. So the risk is that further fiscal tightening might be required later in the year if growth keeps surprising on the downside or bond yields creep higher.

Against that backdrop, UK gilts outperformed yesterday, with a big boost after the UK Debt Management Office said they’d sell £299.2bn of gilts in the 2025-26 fiscal year, a bit beneath the £302bn expected by the consensus. That gilt rally also got further support from the softer-than-expected CPI print for February, with headline CPI down to +2.8% (vs. +3.0% expected). So that led investors to dial up the likelihood of another rate cut at the Bank of England’s next meeting in May, with the probability up from 61% on Tuesday to 77% by yesterday’s close. In turn, that saw gilts rally across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) and the 10yr yield (-3.1bps) both falling.

Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields were fairly steady, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) not seeing much movement in either direction. There was a bit of ECB commentary, with Austria’s Holzmann (a hawk) saying that there was “a need to be cautious in reducing the interest rate too much.” But France’s Villeroy said they “still have room to cut pragmatically”, and investors moved to price in a growing likelihood that we’d still get another rate cut at the next meeting in April. In fact, overnight index swaps raised the probability of another cut to 76%.

Overnight in Asia, that negative market reaction has continued following the auto tariff announcement from President Trump. The Nikkei (-0.96%) and the KOSPI (-1.35%) are leading the losses, with Australia’s S&P/ASX/200 also down -0.37%. However, it hasn’t all been bad news, with the Hang Seng (+0.90%) posting a strong performance this morning, whilst the CSI 300 (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) are also in positive territory.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the third estimate of Q4 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and pending home sales for February. We’ll also get the Euro Area M3 money supply for February. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva and Schnabel, the Fed’s Barkin and Collins, and the BoE’s Dhingra.

Authored by Jesse Colombo via The Bubble Bubble Report,

Many precious metals investors have heard about silver manipulation or suspected it, but few fully understand how it works or can clearly explain it. Many also intuitively sense that silver’s price is artificially low and should be much higher but struggle to identify what—or who—is keeping it suppressed. I have committed myself to studying silver price manipulation, documenting the evidence, educating others, and exposing these practices to bring them to an end and ensure justice is served. In this article, I will explain in clear and accessible terms how silver’s price is systematically manipulated and suppressed.

Simply put, the goal of silver price manipulation is to keep silver’s price artificially low as well as prevent it from breaking above key technical levels that could trigger a full-blown bull market. According to consensus within the precious metals community, the primary culprits behind silver price manipulation are the bullion banks—the most influential players in the precious metals market. These include major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, UBS, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, several of which have been found guilty of manipulating precious metals markets—particularly gold and silver.

The LBMA’s office in the heart of the City of London. Source: lbma.org.uk.

Bullion banks are typically members of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the leading authority overseeing the global over-the-counter (OTC) precious metals market. As LBMA members, these banks play a central role in the market by acting as market makers, facilitating large trades, managing vaulting and storage, and participating in price-setting mechanisms such as the daily London Gold and Silver Fix. This dominant position allows them to exert significant influence over silver prices, making manipulation not just possible, but systemic.

The most common, obvious, and widespread form of silver manipulation is price slams—also known as “tamps”—which almost exclusively take place during the New York COMEX trading session between 8:30 and 11 AM EST. As I’ll explain in greater detail shortly, these slams occur on a high percentage of mornings, but they become even more frequent and aggressive when silver is attempting to break above a key technical or psychological level.

When silver approaches a breakout point that could trigger a snowball effect of additional buying, bullion banks step in to drop the hammer, forcefully slamming the price back down below that level. This calculated suppression is designed to demoralize existing silver investors, discourage new participants, and ensure that silver’s price languishes, preventing momentum from building in its favor.

Silver’s price action over the past year serves as a textbook example of how silver tamping works. As the chart below illustrates, silver has repeatedly attempted to break above the $32–$33 resistance zone, only to be slammed back down each time—except for the current breakout attempt (the outcome of which remains uncertain).

Notably, these persistent price slams have kept silver stagnant, even as gold has surged by approximately $1,000 per ounce to $3,000—a powerful 50% bull market rally that, under normal conditions, would have pulled silver higher due to their historically strong price relationship. However, bullion banks have gone to extraordinary lengths to prevent silver from following its sibling, gold.

To see what one of these slams or tamps looks like on an intraday chart, let’s examine a particularly egregious example from Friday morning, February 14th. While the daily chart above provides a broader view of the price action, the intraday chart below captures exactly how it unfolded that morning. Bullion banks rely on the assumption that most people won’t scrutinize their tactics too closely—but that’s exactly what we’re going to do here.

Some of the most aggressive slams tend to occur on Friday mornings during the U.S. trading session. With the Asian and European markets closed, trading volume and liquidity are significantly lower, creating the perfect conditions for bullion banks to manipulate silver’s price with minimal resistance. This lack of market depth allows them to maximize their impact, giving them more “bang for their buck” when executing price suppression tactics.

As you can see from the 5-minute intraday chart, silver staged a powerful breakout, surging $1 per ounce (3%) during the Asian and European trading sessions. This rally pushed silver above the key $33 resistance level, which had acted as a ceiling for much of the past year, sparking excitement within the precious metals community as many believed silver was finally taking off.

However, around 9 AM New York time, as the U.S. trading session got underway, a massive flood of “paper” silver—in the form of futures contracts—was suddenly dumped onto the market. This deliberate maneuver drove silver back below the critical $33 level, halting the breakout in its tracks and demoralizing silver investors once again.

Note that the silver dumped onto the market was “paper” silver—futures contracts largely unbacked by physical metal. This is the primary way bullion banks artificially suppress silver’s price, keeping it well below where it should be based on true supply and demand for physical silver. What’s both infuriating and disheartening is that this manipulative pattern has persisted almost daily for decades, consistently driving prices downward—never upward.

The chart below shows another egregious example of the manipulation slam pattern, captured on the intraday silver futures chart from late October to early November. During this period, silver made a strong breakout attempt, reaching as high as $35 per ounce, only to be aggressively slammed lower nearly every morning between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM EST. The heavy selling pressure during the U.S. trading session repeatedly drove silver’s price back down, putting the kibosh on the widely watched late October breakout attempt.

These manipulation slams almost exclusively occur in the morning and rarely at any other time of the trading day. To me, these are unmistakable fingerprints of bullion banks deliberately suppressing silver’s price. This is anything but an organic or natural market.

And sure enough, at the time of writing on March 19, 2025, silver has been slammed in all four of the last four trading sessions, proving that this manipulation pattern remains alive and well:

Interestingly, Gold Charts R Us—a leading provider of precious metals data—analyzed and averaged every silver futures trading session from 2007 to 2013. Their findings revealed a clear and consistent pattern: sharp price slams during the New York morning session, followed by recoveries in the afternoon and overnight as the Asian and European markets open. This exact pattern is clearly visible in the chart, and unfortunately, the same phenomenon continues in 2025.

Gold Charts R Us also provided statistical evidence through another model, demonstrating that for literally decades, silver has been consistently slammed during the New York morning trading sessions, only to recover later in the European and Asian sessions.

The black line on this chart represents the New York Intraday Silver Index, which tracks the theoretical price of silver if one were to buy at the New York open, hold throughout the trading day, and sell at the New York close. This index further illustrates how silver’s price is regularly pressured downward during U.S. market hours before rebounding in overseas sessions. Starting from a base of 100 in 1970, this index has been relentlessly eroded, plunging to just 8.19 by February 2025—a staggering decline of nearly 92%.

In stark contrast, the New York Overnight Silver Index, represented by the blue line on the chart, tracks the theoretical price of silver if one were to buy at the New York close in the afternoon and sell at the New York open the following morning. Starting from a base of 100 in 1970, this index has skyrocketed to over 20,000 by February 2025—an astonishing gain of 19,900%.

Gold Charts R Us also included the standard price of silver, represented by the red line on the chart, as a baseline for comparison. Since 1970, it has risen a little more than 16-fold, significantly outperforming the New York Intraday Silver Index but falling far short of the explosive gains seen in the New York Overnight Silver Index.

This is clear evidence that normal market forces are not at play. Instead, it points to blatant downward manipulation. Unfortunately, this suppression discourages both existing silver investors and potential newcomers, which is precisely the intended goal. By keeping silver artificially low, the manipulators aim to undermine assets that compete with the U.S. dollar, which itself is no longer backed by anything.

Silver slams, or tamps, have become so normalized and expected that the precious metals community even jokes about a mythical figure known as Mr. Slammy—a fictional character who appears each morning to manipulate the price of gold and silver by slamming them down.

Adding to the humor, there is even a parody account on X impersonating Mr. Slammy, playfully teasing and tormenting precious metals investors whenever gold and silver surge higher. When the metals inevitably get slammed back down, the account takes mock victory laps, celebrating the suppression.

The origin of the term “tamp” or “tamping down” in reference to intentionally slamming silver prices traces back to a statement made in 2021 by Rostin Behnam, who was then chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Behnam essentially admitted that silver was deliberately slammed by 10% on February 2, 2021, and, in an approving tone, stated that silver futures were able to “tamp down what could have been a much worse situation.”

That “situation” referred to growing fears of a silver shortage and a potential squeeze, which was on the verge of sending prices significantly higher. Instead of preventing market manipulation, as the CFTC is supposed to do, it essentially acknowledged it and gave it tacit approval—which is infuriating. This clearly shows that the agency is protecting the big banks rather than looking out for everyday investors and traders.

Another method bullion banks use to suppress silver prices, aside from flooding the market with massive quantities of paper silver almost daily, is spoofing. This tactic involves placing large sell orders on the futures limit order book to create an artificial price ceiling, reinforcing resistance at key levels.

This form of manipulation isn’t just theoretical. In 2023, two former JP Morgan precious metals traders, Michael Nowak and Gregg Smith, were convicted of price manipulation and spoofing as part of a broader market-rigging scheme, resulting in fines and prison sentences. Yet, despite these convictions, similar tactics continue to be used in one form or another.

As I’ve been explaining, one of the key factors keeping silver’s price suppressed over the past year has been the heavy short selling of COMEX silver futures by swap dealers—primarily the trading desks of bullion banks such as JP Morgan and UBS. In the process, these entities amassed a massive net short position of 42,116 futures contracts, equivalent to 211 million ounces of silver—or roughly a quarter of the world’s annual silver production. This staggering figure underscores the immense downward pressure being exerted on the silver market.

What’s even more astonishing is how much of this massive short position in silver futures is naked, meaning it isn’t backed by physical silver. Instead, it consists largely of “paper” silver being dumped onto the market to artificially suppress prices. However, once silver finally breaks out, it is likely trigger a wave of short covering, where the banks that bet against silver through naked short selling are forced to buy it back as prices rise to limit their losses.As the price climbs, these banks will become increasingly desperate to close their positions, further fueling the rally.

If the buying pressure is strong enough, it could even lead to a short squeeze, dramatically amplifying silver’s upward momentum. Given the sheer size of their short position, bullion banks stand to lose approximately $211 million for every $1 increase in silver’s price—a setup for a major price surge. Now, imagine what happens if silver climbs by $5, $10, $20, or more from this point.

The risk of an explosive silver short squeeze is further amplified by the astonishing ratio of 378 ounces of paper silver—including ETFs, futures, and other derivatives—for every single ounce of physical silver. This extreme imbalance highlights just how overleveraged the paper silver market has become.

In a violent short squeeze, holders of paper silver could be forced to scramble for the extremely scarce physical silver to fulfill their contractual obligations. This would likely cause the price of paper silver products to collapse, while physical silver prices could skyrocket to jaw-dropping levels, potentially reaching several hundred dollars per ounce.

What motivates bullion banks to suppress the price of silver? They do so on behalf of central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, which seek to maintain confidence in paper currencies like the U.S. dollar. A soaring silver price signals weakness in fiat money, raising doubts about its strength and stability. By keeping silver artificially low, bullion banks help preserve the illusion of a strong dollar.

This motivation becomes clear when considering that the U.S. money supply has surged by over 85,000% since 1920, drastically eroding the dollar’s purchasing power. As the dollar declines, the cost of living continues to rise, making a normal middle-class lifestyle increasingly out of reach for most Americans. In contrast, while paper currencies around the world have steadily lost value, silver has retained its purchasing power, serving as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

While the supply of dollars has surged and continues to expand, silver has consistently preserved its purchasing power. The compelling chart below illustrates how the purchasing power of $1,000 in silver ounces has changed over time. In 1960, $1,000 could buy 1,087 ounces of silver, but today, it purchases only 29.74 ounces—a staggering 97% decline in the dollar’s purchasing power relative to silver. This means that the same amount of silver in 1960 could buy roughly the same quantity of goods and services then as it does today, whereas the dollar has lost significant value. That’s a powerful reason to consider storing wealth in physical silver.

Though silver is heavily manipulated and suppressed—possibly the most manipulated asset on the planet—I have strong hope that it will soon break free and thrive. I explained this in detail in a recent report, which I highly recommend reading for further insights, as I don’t have space to cover it fully in this already lengthy piece.

The key reasons for my optimism include the fact that silver has been in a supply deficit for the past five years, with demand consistently outpacing supply. Additionally, silver is extremely undervalued by nearly every measure. I see it as a beach ball being held underwater—it can’t stay suppressed much longer and is bound to pop back up with force.

Also, take a look at the chart below and notice how gold struggled from 2020 to early 2024 to break above the $2,000–$2,100 resistance zone, which acted as a price ceiling for much of that period. Despite multiple attempts, gold was repeatedly pushed back down. However, in March 2024, it finally broke out, igniting the powerful bull market we see today. I see striking parallels with silver’s $32–$33 resistance zone over the past year and believe that once silver manages to close above this level, it will soar just as gold did.

To summarize, silver is heavily manipulated and suppressed by bullion banks like JP Morgan and UBS, acting on behalf of central banks. The price of silver should be significantly higher than its current level. While this is infuriating from a moral standpoint, it also presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for patient silver stackers to acquire the metal at artificially low prices before it breaks free from manipulation and soars—just as gold did one year ago.

At the same time, I am working tirelessly to understand, document, expose, and educate the broader public about silver price manipulation, with the goal of bringing it to an end and ensuring that justice is served. Please help me spread the word by sharing this report with anyone who may be interested.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

“It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008—at least for home builders,” Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, wrote on X earlier this week, referring to the buildup in new housing inventory. Gerli’s comment came just a day before housing data on Tuesday showed that new home supply had surged to an 18-year high.

It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008.

At least for home builders.

I took this picture outside a home building site 45 min north of Tampa.

They had over 20 vacant spec houses completed for sale. And are advertising 0% down mortgages to try to move the inventory. pic.twitter.com/eb8a5R1n4z

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 24, 2025

Meanwhile…

4) Meanwhile – large builders like Lennar are reporting their biggest use of incentives in over a decade.https://t.co/bGNSokaaAB

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 24, 2025

Shifting the focus to Mid-Atlantic housing markets with the highest exposure to federal workers, Gerli identified the top metro areas with a federal worker concentration three to five times higher than average. 

Topping the list is Lexington, Maryland, where 12.5% of all workers—roughly 13,200—are employed in federal government jobs. It’s followed by Washington, D.C., with 266,400 federal jobs, accounting for about 9.4% of all employment, and Baltimore, Maryland, with 77,500 federal jobs, or roughly 5.5% of the workforce.

Gerli asked, “Will government layoffs negatively impact home prices in these markets?” 

Housing markets with the most federal worker exposure.

These metros have a 3-5x higher federal worker concentration than normal.

Will government layoffs negatively impact home prices in these markets? pic.twitter.com/pesNEUA7EM

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 26, 2025

“The average metro area has about 1.4% of the workforce in Federal Jobs. So these markets are significantly higher. Lots of military towns. And of course D.C./Virginia/Maryland,” the founder and also analyst of Reventure said. 

Doge-fueled layoffs will have the most impact across the Mid-Atlantic region—particularly in Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Maryland. There are estimates that DOGE has terminated 200,000 federal workers over the last two months, with cuts being announced weekly. 

Trimming the bloated federal government of waste and fraud will come at a cost, and that’s likely an economic downturn for the D.C. swamp. 

The latest data from Bright MLS, a multiple listing service for the Atlantic area, reported weekly data through March 23, showing that active listings are piling up. 

Active listings in D.C. are surging, well above trends seen in the last several years for this time of year, as the spring selling season is underway. 

Cracks in the housing market—particularly in new housing supply—warrant close monitoring. Equally important is keeping an eye on housing markets with high exposure to federal workers being cut by DOGE. The pain train is coming for the swamp.