Tag: finance

Mark Cuban Apologizes To World: “Americans Are Nothing Like Trump”

Outspoken billionaire businessman Mark Cuban apologized to the world last night for the GOP’s nomination of Donald Trump for president…

The Mavericks owner has not been shy about commenting during the 2016 election campaign…

 

Before going on to explain his 7(ish) point plan to ensure Hillary wins the election…

 

 

One can’t help but feel – given the general explosion of Anti-Trump sentiment on Twitter since his speech – that perhaps, just perhaps, he struck an awkwardly inconvenient truth that the left-er side of the country is finding hard to accept?

via http://ift.tt/2aBcwks Tyler Durden

Crude Drops After US Oil Rig Count Jumps Most Since 2009

Having risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks, the US oil rig count extended its run with a 14 rig surge this week – the biggest absolute rise since Dec 2015. Oil rigs have now risen 55 rigs in the last 8 weeks – the biggest percentage rise since Dec 2009. WTI is tumbling to fresh 3-month lows on the news…

  • *OIL RIGS IN D-J/NIOBRARA ROSE BY 2 TO 18: BAKER HUGHES
  • *OIL RIGS IN EAGLE FORD ROSE BY 2 TO 29: BAKER HUGHES
  • *OIL RIGS IN PERMIAN ROSE BY 8 TO 168: BAKER HUGHES

The 14 rig surge to 371 is the biggest weekly percentage rise since Nov 2009…

 

And crude hit fresh 3mo lows…

via http://ift.tt/29QCGCL Tyler Durden

Multiple Deaths Reported In Shooting At Munich Shopping Center, Major Police Operation Underway

For the second time in a week, Germany is facing another ‘incident’ as The BBC reports “shots fired” in a Munich, Germany shopping center. According to the local police there is now a “major operation” at the Olympia shopping center.

As BBC adds, reports say the area round the shopping centre in the district of Moosach has been sealed off, but details of the incident are sketchy. The security forces have been on alert after a migrant stabbed five people on a train in Bavaria on Monday.

The authorities had warned of the danger of further attacks.

Acciording to unconfirmed reports, up to 15 people are dead after 30 shots were fired.

 

Live periscope Feed:

 

A major police operation is underway according to german media…

 

via http://ift.tt/2ah5zsF Tyler Durden

Erdogan Formally Requests Gulen Extradition From US, As Power At Incirlik Airbase Restored

One week after the Turkish coup, U.S. officials reported that electric power has been finally restored to the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey.

The base had been operating on a backup generator since July 16, when power was shut off at all military bases in Turkey following a failed military coup. Turkish authorities have alleged that planes involved in the coup attempt were refueled by Turkish planes housed at the base.

The U.S. military’s European Command said Friday there is a steady flow of hot food, water, and fuel to support U.S. service members and civilians in Turkey. EUCOM said it is working with the Turkish military to make sure the base is prepared to carry out its missions. It is used by U.S.-led coalition jets fighting the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq.

That’s the quid, to what we expected last week would be a bargaining chip in Turkey’s negotiation with the US on extraditing the cleric Fethullah Gulen, who has been blamed for masterminding the coup, and who lives in the US. 

Some have speculated that the airbase may be held “hostage” by Ankara as a bargaining chip ahead of demands for the extradition of Erdogan’s arch enemy, Fethullah Gulen, currently a resident of the state of Pennsylvania.

The base is no longer hostage, if only for the time being.

What is the quo? We found out moments ago, when Turkey’s ablassador to the US, Kilic, formally requested the extradition of Gulen:

We have formally submitted the necessary documents” for extradition of Fethullah Gulen, Ambassador Serdar Kilic told reporters in Washington.

WaPo adds that Turkey’s top diplomat urged the United States on Friday to quickly hand over a self-exiled cleric whom Turkish leaders have linked to last week’s coup attempt — an issue that risks causing serious tension between the two allies. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told the state-run broadcaster TRT that Turkey was ready to take part in a commission proposed by Washington to discuss the extradition of Fethullah Gulen. But Cavusoglu insisted there was no need for it to take a long time. “If you want to draw out the Gulen extradition issue, it can take years, but if you are decisive, it can be completed in a short period,” he said, according to the Reuters news agency.

And now the ball is in Obama’s court: does he yield to a person who has clearly made a mockery of the democratic process and hand over a frail 77-year-old man who hardly was the evil mastermind that managed to somehow plan and coordinate with the 60,000+ people detained, arrested or charged in Turkey. Or does he deny, and risk Erdogan’s ira, which could potentially spillover by forcing Turkey to gravitate closer to Moscow’s sphere of influence and maybe even open the European gates for some 2 million Syrian refugees currently held inside Turkey’s borders.

We doubt Obama will rush to resolve this issue and will most likely punt it to Hillary Clinton, who takes over in just 4 months. As America knows, the Secretary of State has an admirable record of resolving foreign diplomatic crises.

via http://ift.tt/2aiGGcN Tyler Durden

“That’s A Scary Graph” Former Fed Economist Warns

The problem, warns 33-year St.Louis Fed veteran Daniel Thornton, is that "the financial cycle is way ahead of the economic cycle." As Bloomberg notes, that's a worry given that the past two downturns were driven by asset-price deflation.

Americans are about as wealthy as they've ever been – and that's a worry?

 

Yup, say veteran economists Daniel Thornton and Joe Carson. They're concerned that the swelling of wealth could prove unsustainable because it's far outstripped the growth of the economy since the recession's end in 2009.

 

Thornton, who spent 33 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis before retiring in 2014, says in effect that we've seen this picture before. Household net worth ballooned in the late 1990's and the early 2000's; in the first instance pumped up by rising stock prices, in the second by expanding home values.

Both cases ended badly, with the economy falling into recession after the bubbles burst.

Chart: Bloomberg

Just as occurred in the previous two episodes, the latest expansion of wealth  has been driven more by rising prices of assets -in this case both shares and homes – than by improved economic fundamentals…

Since 2009, households have seen their holdings of stock and mutual funds nearly double, to $20.6 trillion.

 

Only 6 percent of that gain can be ascribed to new flows of money into the funds or share purchases, according to calculations by Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. The rest is due to price appreciation.

As the veteran economists sum up…

The problem, he said, is that "the financial cycle is way ahead of the economic cycle.'' That's a worry given that the past two downturns were driven by asset-price deflation.

 

"Nobody knows what's going to happen," Thornton said. "But there's plenty of reason to think that’s a scary graph."

Still, why worry, with stock valuations at 12 year highs (amid decling earnings) and median home prices well above the prior peak, what could go wrong?

via http://ift.tt/2a64YIb Tyler Durden

“The Hillary Leaks” – Wikileaks Releases 19,252 Previously Unseen DNC Emails

The state department’s release of Hillary emails may be over, but that of Wikileaks is just starting.

Moments ago, Julian Assange’s whistleblower organization released over 19,000 emails and more than 8,000 attachments from the Democratic National Committee. This is part one of their new Hillary Leaks series, Wikileaks said in press release. To wit:

Today, Friday 22 July 2016 at 10:30am EDT, WikiLeaks releases 19,252 emails and 8,034 attachments from the top of the US Democratic National Committee — part one of our new Hillary Leaks series. The leaks come from the accounts of seven key figures in the DNC: Communications Director Luis Miranda (10770 emails), National Finance Director Jordon Kaplan (3797 emails), Finance Chief of Staff Scott Comer (3095 emails), Finanace Director of Data & Strategic Initiatives Daniel Parrish (1472 emails), Finance Director Allen Zachary (1611 emails), Senior Advisor Andrew Wright (938 emails) and Northern California Finance Director Robert (Erik) Stowe (751 emails). The emails cover the period from January last year until 25 May this year.

The emails released Friday cover a period from January 2015 to May 2016. They purportedly come from the accounts of seven key DNC staffers, listed above: Andrew Wright, Jordon Kaplan, Scott Comer, Luis Miranda, Robert Stowe, Daniel Parrish and Allen Zachary.

A quick scan of the emails focus on Bernie Sanders and dealing with the fallout of many Democrats opposing Hillary Clinton and calling the system “rigged.” Many of the emails exchanged between top DNC officials are simply the text of news articles concerning how establishment democrats can “deal” with the insurgent left-winger.

One email reveals the perks to the top fundraisers:

 

And then there is Trump, where a quick subject search reveals some 5,245 results.

 

The full database can be accessed below (link):

via http://ift.tt/2aB3CU0 Tyler Durden

The Market’s Biggest Permabull Is “Scared About The Month Of August”

JPM’s former permabull, Tom Lee, needs no introduction: any time he appears on CNBC, his advice was simple: buy it all. And while he may have parted ways with JPM after moving to his own firm, FundStat, his investing psychology has remained the same: put your faith in central banks and BTFD, or just BTF if there is no D.

Which is why we were surprised to read that while Lee remains generally bullish on central planning, and its most direct manifestation, new all time highs, he writes in his latest commentary that he is “scared about the month of August.”

One look at VIX which recently dropped to a multi-year low, and is now trading at levels where it was last August before it exploded to 40, may explain the reason why.

This is what he said:

For whatever reason (irrational and likely “recency bias”), we are scared about the month of August (4 of 6 most recent Augusts have been big down months) and have noted that in our recent commentary. The overall backdrop for equities, in our view, remains overwhelmingly positive, given the:

 

  1. easing of credit conditions (HY rally, especially);
  2. solid 2Q16 results season affirming our belief global growth is improving;
  3. skeptical/negative sentiment remains a positive contrarian factor and
  4. all-time highs represent a decisive breakout for stocks.

 

That said, a few recent developments suggest August is likely to be a down month. We are not changing our views and we remain buyers of weakness—however, for our tactically-minded clients, it may make sense to fade strength and be prepared to add to weakness in August:

He followed up on Twitter.

 

Does this mean the path to even recorder S&P 500 highs is now clear?  Well, if the recent forecasts of upcoming corrections are any indication, the answer is a resounding yes. Recall that just two weeks ago, Goldman’s David Kostin predicted that “we continue to expect the market will experience a pullback of 5%-10% during the next few months before ending the year at 2100. Strategically, we expect a continuation of the range-bound market that has challenged investors for nearly two years. “

 

As has traditionally been the case, anyone who followed Goldman’s advice has been promptly margined out.

The only possible confusion here, and the reason why it is premature to give the all clear on an S&P 2,500, is that 10 days ago Dennis Gartman capitulated on his short position saying “”We Have Had Quite Enough; We Want Out Now.” For best returns, it may be prudent to wait until Gartman goes short again before going “all in” stocks.

via http://ift.tt/2aivM6T Tyler Durden

Investors Plow Record Cash Into Emerging Markets, As Europe Suffers Record Outflows

Whether it is due to the recent speculation that Japan may usher in helicopter money, or ongoing concerns about what Brexit may do to the future of European asset returns, there has been a dramatic shift in fund allocation and as Bank of America reports, investors are rushing to vote with their wallets. They have done so in the latest week by continuing to plow money into EM stocks, allocating a record amount of cash to Emerging Markets, while yanking a similarly record amount of cash from Europe.

As BofA’s Michael Hartnett reports, there was a record inflow to EM debt funds ($4.9bn); representing the largest EM equity inflows in 12 months ($4.7bn).

The reason: “investors furiously chasing carry in EM debt markets, happily assuming every interest rate in the world will fall to zero, as well as capitulating into “weak $” winners (note how inflows to EM equities starting to play catch-up to monster inflows this year first to gold (Chart 3), & more recently, EM debt (Chart 4).”

 

However, this euphoria into EM is not widespread. On the contrary, when it comes to European stocks, BofA reports that YTD neither ECB nor BoJ QE has thus far moved needle on flows. The result has been a record redemptions from European equity funds this week ($6.1bn), as well as an exodus from Japan ETF’s (-42% AUM YTD).

As BofA reported previously, in July BofAML’s Fund Manager Survey showed a first Eurozone UW in 3 years & biggest Japan UW in more than 3 years.

Some other big picture observations on fund flows:

Asset Class Flows:

  • Equities: $6.2bn outflows (note divergence between $3.6bn ETF inflows & $9.8bn mutual fund outflows)
  • Bonds: $1.8bn inflows (inflows in 14 of past 16 weeks)
  • Precious metals: $0.4bn inflows (smallest in 8 weeks) (inflows in 26 of past 28 weeks)

Equity Flows

  • EM: largest inflows in 12 months ($4.7bn) (all via global EM funds)
  • Europe: record outflows ($6.2bn) ($24 straight weeks of outflows)
  • Japan: $1.1bn outflows (largest in 12 weeks)
  • US: modest $2.7bn outflows
  • By sector: largest financials inflows since Dec’15 ($0.8bn); inflows to REITs funds in 4 of past 5 weeks ($0.6bn); outflows from tech funds in 4 of past 5 weeks ($0.6bn)

Fixed Income Flows

  • $2.1bn inflows to HY bond funds (3 straight weeks)
  • $5.2bn outflows from IG bond funds (caveat: data skewed by big $8.1bn outflows from Prudential Core Ultra Short Bond Fund)
  • 44 straight weeks of inflows to Munis ($0.9bn)
  • $1.4bn outflows from Govt/Treasury funds (largest in 15 weeks)

By sector: largest financials inflows since Dec’15 ($0.8bn); inflows to REITs funds in 4 of past 5 weeks ($0.6bn); outflows from tech funds in 4 of past 5 weeks ($0.6bn)

* * *

Finally, some big picture ideas from BofA on how to make sense of all of this:

  • The Big Pain Trade: BofAML FMS, flows, performance say biggest “pain trade” = long Banks, short Bonds…note this week’s flow reversal into both asset classes…largest financials inflows since 2015 ($0.8bn)…largest outflows from Treasuries in 15 weeks ($1.4bn). Summer contrarian pain trade = long EU stocks, short EM debt.
  • Quantitative Flow Failure: YTD neither ECB nor BoJ QE has thus far moved needle on flows…record redemptions from European equity funds this week ($6.1bn)…BofAML GWIM data show exodus from Japan ETF’s (-42% AUM YTD)…July BofAML FMS shows first Eurozone UW in 3 years & biggest Japan UW in more than 3 years.
  • Big Pain Trade Catalysts: catalysts for mean reversion of epic 2016 outperformance of bonds (Treasuries & EM debt) over banks (in Europe & Japan): 1. strong US consumer/housing data allowing Fed to hint it is not “one & done”, 2. EU/ECB bank policy moves allow markets to anticipate Italy bank resolution, 3. a >¥15-20tn Japan fiscal stimulus announcement comes with implicit BoJ helicopter.
  • Big Japan fiscal stimulus = +ve Nikkei: Table 1 shows dates, size of 10 largest Japan fiscal stimulus packages since 1990; average size = 3.4% of GDP; fiscal stimulus often enacted after stocks down big prior 6 months; stocks rally 1 month ahead of fiscal announcement, pause in weeks after package announced, then rally in subsequent months; meanwhile Japanese yen tends to strengthen after the policy announcement; a >¥15-20tn Japan fiscal stimulus announcement in coming weeks financed with implicit BoJ helicopter money would help keep risk rally alive until Labor Day.

via http://ift.tt/29QqguF Tyler Durden