Tag: finance

Perhaps in indirect response to the Kahn family attacks on Donald Trump, Pat Smith and Charles Woods, parents of Sean Smith and Tyrone Woods who were killed in the Benghazi terrorist attacks on September 11, 2012, have filed a lawsuit against Hillary Clinton alleging, among other things, that her “negligent and reckless” actions with regard to her private email server resulted in the “wrongful death” of their sons.  The lawsuit, filed in the District of Columbia, also accuses Clinton of “defamation” and “intentional infliction of emotional distress” as they claim she has launched a “smear campaign” against the Plaintiffs in an effort to cover up the facts and save her Presidential campaign.

The suit alleges that Clinton’s use of a private email server is what allowed terrorist groups in Libya to obtain the whereabouts of Ambassador Christopher Stevens which ultimately led to the “wrongful death” of their sons:

This information was compromised from the second that it left Defendant Clinton’s private e-mail server and easily found its way to foreign powers including, but not limited to Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea. As a direct result of Defendant Clinton’s reckless handling of this classified, sensitive information, Islamic terrorists were able to obtain the whereabouts of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and thus the U.S. State Department and covert and other government operations in Benghazi, Libya and subsequently orchestrate, plan, and execute the now infamous September 11, 2012 attack.

The suit also alleges that Clinton has gone a “defamatory smear campaign” to paint the Plaintiffs as liars and discredit their claims that Clinton blamed the attacks on a YouTube video in the aftermath of the Benghazi attacks.  The suit goes on to highlight specific instances where Clinton denied that she originally attributed the deaths of the Americans in Benghazi on the YouTube Video.

Defendant Clinton made false and defamatory statements negligently, recklessly, purposefully, and/or intentionally with actual malice as set forth in paragraphs 23(a), (b), (c), and (d) concerning Plaintiffs by stating that Plaintiffs were lying about Clinton having told them that the Benghazi Attack was caused by an anti-Muslim YouTube video.

 

Now, Defendant Clinton, in an attempt to save her reputation and intimidate Plaintiffs and their surviving family members into silence as she attempts to be elected President in the November, 2016 election, has gone on a defamatory smear campaign to paint Plaintiffs as liars in the public eye in order to discredit Plaintiffs, who have been vocal about Defendant Clinton’s pattern and practice of dishonesty regarding what caused the Benghazi attack, its aftermath, and the death of their sons.

 

March 9, 2016 – Democratic Presidential Debate – When asked about Plaintiff Smith’s allegation that Defendant Clinton lied to her by blaming the Benghazi Attack on the YouTube video, Defendant Clinton responded by saying, “I feel a great deal of sympathy for the families of the four brave Americans that we lost at Benghazi, and I certainly can’t even imagine the grief that she has for losing her son, but she’s wrong. She’s absolutely wrong.”

The suit points out the various instances where Clinton did in fact reference the YouTube video as the potential cause of the attack:

After the Benghazi Attack, Defendant Clinton attempted to blame an anti-Muslim YouTube video for inciting the Benghazi Attack. On September 11, 2012, Defendant Clinton stated in a Press Statement, “Some have sought to justify this vicious behavior as a response to inflammatory material posted on the Internet.” Again, on September 12, 2012, in a public speech, Defendant Clinton states, “Some have sought to justify this vicious behavior, along with the protest that took place at our Embassy in Cairo yesterday, as a response to inflammatory material posted on the internet.”

 

On September 14, 2012, Defendant Clinton met privately with the family members of the four Americans who were killed during the Benghazi Attack, including Plaintiffs Pat Smith and Charles Woods (“Woods”) at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. During the private meeting, Defendant Clinton lied to Plaintiffs and told Plaintiffs that the Benghazi Attack was the result of the anti-Muslim YouTube video that had been posted online and that the creator of the video would be arrested.

 

Woods contemporaneously recorded this September 14, 2012 interaction with Defendant Clinton by writing in his diary, stating that “I gave Hillary a hug and shook her hand, and she said we are going to have the film maker arrested who was responsible for the death of my son.”

Paradoxically, she simultaneously admitted the attack “had nothing to do with the film” to the Egyptian Prime Minister:

In another email the day after the Benghazi Attack, Defendant Clinton directly told the Egyptian Prime Minister “we know the attack in Libya had nothing to do with the film. It was a planned attack, not a protest.”

Unfortunately, video of remarks made by Mrs. Clinton seem to support the claims made by Pat Smith.  Below is a video of comments made by Secretary of State Clinton on September 14, 2012, as the bodies of Tyrone Woods and Sean Smith were arriving home, in which she clearly blames the attacks on a YouTube video (fast forward to about the 1:00 mark for the specific comments).

And then we have the video of Clinton from a recent Democratic Presidential Debate saying the Mrs. Smith is “wrong.” We guess we should just ignore the video above then?  That never happened…nothing to see here.

But we’re sure this was just another couple of “short-circuits” that will conveniently fade away.

Full complaint below

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Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It is not surprising that after one of the longest cyclical bull markets in history that individuals are ebullient about the long-term prospects of investing. The ongoing interventions by global Cental Banks have led to T.I.N.A. (There Is No Alternative) which has become a pervasive, and “Pavlovian,” investor mindset. But therein lies the real story.

The chart below shows every economic expansion going back to 1871 and the subsequent market decline.

This chart should make one point very clear – this cycle will end.

However, for now, the bullish bias exists as individuals continue to hold historically high levels of equity and leverage, chasing yield in the riskiest of areas, and maintaining relatively low levels of cash as shown in the charts below.

There are only a few people, besides me, that discuss the probabilities of lower returns over the next decade. But let’s do some basic math.

First, the general consensus is that stocks will return:

• 6%-8%/year in real (inflation-adjusted) terms,
• plus or minus whatever changes we see in valuation ratios.

Plug in the math and we get the following scenarios:

1. If P/E10 declines from 25X to 19X  over the next decade, equity returns should be roughly 3%/year real or 5%/year nominal.
2. If P/E10 declines to 15X, returns fall to 1%/year real or 3%/year nominal.
3. If P/E10 remains at current levels, returns should be 6%/year real or 8%/year nominal.

Here is the problem with the math.

First, this assumes that stocks will compound at some rate, every year, going forward. This is a common mistake that is made in return analysis. Equities do not compound at a stagnant rate of growth but rather experience a rather high degree of volatility over time. As I discussed in more detail recently:

“The ‘power of compounding’ ONLY WORKS when you do not lose money. As shown, after three straight years of 10% returns, a drawdown of just 10% cuts the average annual compound growth rate by 50%. Furthermore, it then requires a 30% return to regain the average rate of return required. In reality, chasing returns is much less important to your long-term investment success than most believe.

 

Here is another way to view the difference between what was “promised,” versus what “actually” happened. The chart below takes the average rate of return, and price volatility, of the markets from the 1960’s to present and extrapolates those returns into the future.”

“When imputing volatility into returns, the differential between what investors were promised (and this is a huge flaw in financial planning) and what actually happened to their money is substantial over the long-term.

The second point, and probably most important, is that YOU DIED long before you realized the long-term average rate of return.”

The chart below shows the S&P 500 as compared to annualized returns and the average of market returns since 1900.  Over the last 113 years, the market has NEVER produced a 6% every single year even though the average has been 6.87%. 

However, assuming that markets have a set return each year, as you could expect from a bond, is grossly flawed. While there are many years that far exceeded the average of 6%, there are also many that haven’t. But then again, this is why 6% is the “average” and NOT the “rule.”

Secondly, and more importantly, the math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up.  The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. History suggests, as shown in the next chart, that valuations do not fall without investment returns being negatively impacted to a large degree.

So, back to the “math” to prove this is true.

If we assume that despite the weak economic growth at present, the Federal Reserve is successful at getting nominal GDP back up to a historical growth rate of 6.3% annually. While this is not realistic if you look at the data, when markets are near historical peaks, assumptions tend to run a bit wild. Unfortunately, such assumptions have tended to have rather nasty outcomes. But I digress.

If we use a market cap / GDP ratio of 1.25 and an S&P 500 dividend yield of just 2%, what might we estimate for total returns over the coming decade using John Hussman’s formula?

(1.063)(0.63/1.25)^(1/10) – 1.0 + .02 = 1.3% annually.

We can confirm that math by simply measuring the forward TOTAL return of stocks over the next 10-years from each annual valuation level.

Forward 20-year returns get worse. 

John Hussman once penned:

As the Buddha taught, ‘This is like this, because that is like that.’ 

Extraordinary long-term market returns come from somewhere. They originate in conditions of undervaluation, as in 1950 and 1982. Dismal long-term returns also come from somewhere – they originate in conditions of severe overvaluation. Today, as in 2000, and as in 2007, we are at a point where ‘this’ is like this. So ‘that’ can be expected to be like that.”

Nominal GDP growth is likely to be far weaker over the next decade. This will be due to the structural change in employment, rising productivity which suppresses real wage growth, still overly leveraged household balance sheets which reduce consumptive capabilities and the current demographic trends.

Therefore, if we assume a 4% nominal economic growth, the forward returns get much worse.

If nominal growth is 3%…well you get the idea. 

Most mainstream analysis makes sweeping assumptions that are unlikely to play out in the future. The market is extremely volatile which exacerbates the behavioral impact on forward returns to investors. (This is something that is always “forgotten.”) When large market declines occur within a given cycle, and they always do, investors panic sell at the bottom.  

The most recent Dalbar Study of investor behavior shows this to be the case.  Over the last 30-years, the S&P 500 has had an average return of 10.35% while equity fund investors had a return of just 3.66%.

So much for the 6% return assumptions in financial plans.

This has much to do with the simple fact that investors chase returns, buy high, sell low and chase ethereal benchmarks. (Read “Why You Shouldn’t Benchmark Your Portfolio”) The reason that individuals are plagued by these emotional behaviors, such as “buy high and sell low,” is due to well-meaning articles espousing stock ownership at cyclical valuation peaks.

The current cyclical bull market is not likely over as of yet. Momentum driven markets are hard to kill in the latter stages particularly as exuberance builds. However, they do eventually end. That is unless the Fed has truly figured out a way to repeal economic and business cycles altogether. As we enter into the eighth year of economic expansion we are likely closer to the next contraction than not. This is particularly the case as the Federal Reserve continues to build a bigger economic void in the future by pulling forward consumption through its monetary policies.

Will the market likely be higher a decade from now? A case can certainly be made in that regard.  However, if interest rates or inflation rises sharply, the economy moves through a normal recessionary cycle, or if Jack Bogle is right – then things could be much more disappointing. As Seth Klarman from Baupost Capital once stated:

“Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes. And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared.”

We saw much of the same mainstream analysis at the peak of the markets in 1999 and 2007. New valuation metrics, IPO’s of negligible companies, valuation dismissals as “this time was different,” and a building exuberance were all common themes. Unfortunately, the outcomes were always the same.

It is likely that this time is “not different” and while it may seem for a while the bullish analysis is correct, it is “only like this, until it is like that.”

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Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson has been one of the most bearish sellside analysts on oil, and overnight he confirmed he isn’t going to change his opinion any time soon, and instead warns that while “a profit taking and short covering bounce in oil late in the week has led some to declare that the troubles are behind us” he believes that “very little has been addressed fundamentally to correct these problems. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we would argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation.” Putting a number to his call: oil will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

The key point in Longson’s latest note is a simple, and recurring one: “Fundamental Oil Issues Have Not Been Addressed” and that “Physical market stress due to fundamental headwinds is still ahead.”

This is what he says:

A profit taking and short covering bounce in oil late in the week (partly on a US gasoline draw driven by lower imports) has led some to declare that the troubles in oil are behind us. However, while the market began to price in some of the headwinds prematurely via flat price, very little has been addressed fundamentally or through physical market indicators to correct the material problems in oil markets.

 

Greater headwinds ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we could argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation.

• The fall in oil prices has only lifted refinery margins, which should support product oversupply: Refinery margins (p.38-39) are not at a level to cause distress or the large run cuts that will be required, despite lower product cracks. The issue is that lower oil, fuel oil and natural gas prices globally reduce operating costs, while a strong USD has lowered general opex and G&A for Europe and Asia on a relative basis.
• A cut in Saudi OSPs reinforces Asian crude oil demand, which should delay necessary run cuts. Asia and the Middle East were the primary incremental contributors to the oversupply in global gasoline and diesel. Expectations had been for Asia to see economic run cuts, but efforts from oil suppliers to support crude demand and refinery margins reduce that probability. Hence, product markets may need to, and are likely, to deteriorate further before corrective actions are taken.
• Returning supply is a boon to refiners. The crude oil oversupply has shifted more refiners to spot purchases where new distressed cargoes can provide opportunities.
• Refiners are reluctant to capitulate. During earnings season, a number of refiners admitted that run cuts may be needed, but few were willing to make economic run cuts themselves. In fact, the global fall maintenance schedule looks surprisingly light at this point. We expect more maintenance or unplanned outages (e.g. Whiting) ahead.

 

 

 

Separately, US crude oil stats are likely to trend bearish over the coming months. US waterborne imports are likely to stay elevated for 1-2 months given sailing times and prior price signals. However, Canadian supply is returning and refinery demand should fall seasonally (we are past peak runs). With the market trading much more closely on weekly DOE developments, a larger build in US crude oil stocks in Aug or Sep could weigh on sentiment, and WTI time spreads at a minimum.

How does this analysis translate into what happens to the future price of oil, and where Morgan Stanley see oil going next?

The bottom of our trading range remains $35. Although our 4Q16 Brent average is $40, which is an important psychological level, we also provide a trading range for our base case around our forecasts. Despite the recent bounce, we see the prospect for lower prices in the next 1-3 months and a deeper contango. However, we see a soft floor around $35/bbl. There is no intrinsic value or physical market response that will prevent prices from breaking that level, but we see a setup for why the mid-30s could be a critical level.

 

A rising short position into the mid-30s could make the market more susceptible to OPEC discussion and other headlines. If prices fall to the mid-30s with a large build in short position, it should begin to limit downside risk and provide a soft floor. At such levels, the risk-reward to lower prices is not attractive without a major fundamental change. As a result, investors who have earned profits on their shorts may unwind them or be reluctant to press them in the face of any potential bullish headlines.

 

The primary catalyst for a short-covering floor would likely be OPEC talk of intervention. Press reports of renewed talks within OPEC are already starting, with Venezuela leading the charge. If prices continue to languish, other producers may be open to the idea, particularly after the market reaction to freeze discussions earlier this year. While some investors may be dismissive of OPEC, the market continues to respond to members’ commentary. Moreover, the probability of some intervention (although still low) rises heading into the Dec 2016 meeting given sustained stress and the full return of Iranian volumes.

 

 

 

Reaching our $30 Brent average bear case would likely require greater fundamental changes and macro stress. The risk to move below $35 would likely need to come from a large fundamental change (such as Libyan supply returning) and/or macro concerns on top of already poor fundamentals – as we witnessed in Jan 2016. These issues have the potential to change investors’ perception of the rebalancing point, or result in macro positioning liquidation. Within these risks, the probability is rising for a return of Libya, which alone could offset most of the increase in crude oil demand (not refined products) for 2016.

 

Option positioning and upcoming expiry could be important near term events. We see a notable open interest for Sep WTI puts in the $38-42 range expiring next week. Closing these positions could add some upside buying, while the negative gamma could reinforce any larger down moves by creating forced selling from dealers.

As a reminder, Adam was among the first to point out, back on April 26, that oil prices will retrace the pattern observed last year, with a substantial bounce into the summer, and a subsequent, and seasonal, fade heading into the fall and winter.

So far he has been correct.

But if he is also correct about what happens to oil next, there may be a problem, because as JPM pointed out over the weekend, oil sliding below $40 would be not only a breach of a key psychologcal support level, but also the level below which SWFs would be forced to resume selling equity assets all over again.

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Since 2015 I’ve stated the raw data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on gold export to China mainland do not accurately reflect what is imported by China from the land of down under. In my previous post I’ve written Australia’s gold “export to China” should be adjusted by Hong Kong’s gold “import from Australia” as a substantial amount of gold Australia declares to export to China is in fact travelling through Hong Kong. A written statement from ABS now supports this analysis.

Obviously, what we’re after is exactly how much (non-monetary) gold China is importing from all countries around the world. As China doesn’t disclose its cross-border trade statistics for gold, the only way to reach our objective is by establishing net gold export from all countries around the world to China, subsequently to aggregate these numbers and come to an estimate of total Chinese gold import.

One of the largest exporters of gold to China is Australia, but calculating Australia’s gold export to China is complicated, as we need to be cautious to avoid double counting in computing China’s total net gold import. The thing is, ABS bluntly alters any “export to Hong Kong” into “export to China” when they suspect the gold is shipped to Hong Kong but will reach the mainland as its final destination – this is what ABS confirmed to me. Therefor, from using Australia’s “export to China” double counting can arise when any gold flowing from Australia via Hong Kong to China would then be declared as “export to China” by Australia and “export to China” by Hong Kong.

Let us clarify this subject. Have a look at the chart below. If we focus on the period from January 2013 until December 2014 we can observe that Australia’s “export to China” (purple bars, data sourced via ABS/COMTRADE) roughly matches Hong Kong’s “import from Australia” (turquoise bars, data sourced from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department). We must conclude that over this period roughly all gold Australia exported to China was transferred via Hong Kong. If we then would sum up Australia’s gold “export to China” to Hong Kong’s gold “export to China” this would result in double counting.

Exhibit 1. Australia’s “exports to China” versus Hong Kong’s “import
from Australia”. All data by ABS I’ve sourced via COMTRADE simply
because it’s cheaper. Crosschecks between ABS and COMTRADE show
their data is nearly exactly the same.

Historically, Hong Kong has been the main entry point for gold into China. Not surprisingly Australia’s gold “export to China” was all directed through Hong Kong until December 2014, as we can see above. The situation changed early 2014 when China openly stated to stimulate direct gold imports from all over the world, bypassing Hong Kong. Soon after, we’ve witnessed the birth of direct gold export to China from for example the UK.

Exhibit 2. The UK’s cross-border gold trade with China mainland.

Halfway 2014 the UK commenced to export gold directly to China mainland bypassing Hong Kong. Side note: since the beginning of 2016 the UK’s export to China has died out on a rising price of gold, the UK turning into a net importer of gold.
The strategic move from Beijing to stimulate direct import was also mentioned on Chinese state television channel CCTV in 2014, see the clip below starting from 1:30.

youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TYSLZJqF4I

Exhibit 3. Courtesy CCTV.

Tellingly, what Australia declared as “export to China” started to exceed what Hong Kong declared as “import from Australia” (exhibit 1) in early 2015. The difference reflects Australia’s direct export to China, which took off in January 2015. To compute Australia’s direct export to China we should subtract Hong Kong’s “import from Australia” from what Australia declares as “export to China”.

When I wrote ABS about my general findings displayed in exhibit 1 they replied [emphasize en brackets by me]: 

… I can confirm that we are reporting basically as you described.

The ABS developed a policy some time ago in relation to reporting country of origin [final destination] for gold exports. The policy dictates that some trade with a reported country of destination as Hong Kong, should be corrected to China. This was based on our investigations at the time, which found that although Hong Kong is a central hub for gold trade, the goods are predominately sent elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region. We also confirmed that in some cases the destination beyond Hong Kong was not known by the exporter at the time of export. China was assessed as the most likely destination ….

We acknowledge that this blanket approach is not ideal, and can lead to the series differing from expectations.

We will continue to report in this fashion in the foreseeable future. However, as some time has passed since the initial investigation we will be conducting a review of the policy discussed above. We will be sure to inform you of any outcomes resulting from the review process.

Exhibit 4. Quote from email of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to Koos Jansen.

Case closed? No, I have a few more thoughts I would like to share.

To come to the most precise amount of bullion net exported from Australia to China mainland we should set up a formula. We have a few flows of bullion between Australia, Hong Kong and China to work with. Some are known and publicly disclosed, some are unknown but can be calculated:

• We have publicly disclosed by ABS/COMTRADE what Australia declares as net “export to China” (C).
• Effectively, what ABS declares as net “export to China” (C) either is a direct net export to China (Y) or exported to Hong Kong but disclosed by ABS as export to China (X) as they guess the final destination is the mainland (so C = X + Y). What we want to know is the partition of Y and X, but this is unknown.
• Then we have also publicly disclosed by ABS/COMTRADE what they consider Australia to net “export to Hong Kong” as a final destination (B). This amount is small but relevant for our formula. (Actually, for us it is not important what ABS thinks the final destination is, as long as we know this gold is arriving in Hong Kong.)
• Finally, we have publicly disclosed by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department (HKCSD) Hong Kong’s net “import from Australia” (Z).

What we want to calculate is Y (Australia’s direct net gold “export to China”), but the only figures published are C and B by ABS, and Z by HKCSD. Fortunately, we can calculate Y from C, B and Z.

We know Hong Kong’s “import from Australia” (Z) equals Australia’s “export to Hong Kong” (B) plus Australia’s export to Hong Kong data that is altered into “export to China” (X). ABS may alter the data but nevertheless the physical gold flows to Hong Kong.

Therefor:

Z = B + X

As Z and B are publicly disclosed, from here we can calculate the amount ABS alters from “export to Hong Kong” into “export to China”, which is X.

X = Z – B

By knowing X we can finally calculate how much gold is directly net exported from Australia to China (Y).

C = Y + X

Y = C – X

Y = C – Z – B

By using this formula Australia net exported 113.81 tonnes of gold to China mainland in 2015. In contrast, GFMS that wrote in their Gold Survey 2016 Australia exported 187 tonnes to China in 2015, which is the raw data disclosed by ABS (Australia’s gross gold “export to China”). The numbers by GFMS cannot de accurate.

Exhibit 5. Quote from the Gold Survey 2016 by GFMS.

One final point. How do we know the gold exports from Australia to Hong Kong are re-exported to China mainland and not for example to Thailand?

Re-exports are products which have previously been imported into Hong Kong and which are re-exported without having undergone in Hong Kong a manufacturing process which has changed permanently the shape, nature, form or utility of the product.

Exhibit 6. Definition of re-exports by HKCSD.

Well, next to the fact ABS isn’t always sure what the final destination is of gold exported to Hong Kong, neither do I. But, once the gold has arrived in Hong Kong we shouldn’t care about ABS data, we must rely on HKCSD’s data. The HKCSD states Hong Kong to re-export hundreds if not thousands of tonnes of gold per year – Hong Kong is one the largest gold trading hubs globally. Therefor, I assume they accurately declare how much imported gold is re-exported. If the HKCSD declares so many re-exports why wouldn’t they accurately declare re-exports from Australia to the mainland?

Eventually, by calculating Australia’s direct net gold “export to China” (Y) through the formula above, and adding Hong Kong’s “export and re-export to China” from HKCSD data we should have the best assessment of China’s net gold import from Australia and Hong Kong. 

Exhibit 7. Hong Kong’s cross border gold trade, which in my judgement is one of the most accurate data sets globally. Side note: bullion that was accumulated in Hong Kong during 2013 and 2014 is flowing out since 2015.

My assessment for China’s total net gold import for 2015 is 1,565 tonnes. If we add domestic mine output at 450 tonnes and a few hundred tonnes of scrap supply and disinvestment, total supply has been well over 2,000 tonnes for the year. Not surprisingly SGE withdrawals accounted for 2,596 tonnes in 2015.

I know, I owe you all a respons to the Gold Survey 2016 by GFMS in which they stated Chinese gold demand in 2015 was 867 tonnes – quite a gap with SGE withdrawals. As some of you know, or might have guessed by now, I’ve had some health issues in recent years hence my writing hasn’t been constant. Hopefully, things are turning for the better again and I can continue publishing on the Chinese gold market (my ongoing disagreement with WGC and GFMS), global gold flows and a whole bunch of other planned articles.

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Despite the worst slump in US productivity in 37 years, a VIX crushing “bad news is great news” surge in stocks has lifted the S&P 500 to yet another new record intraday high (on pro rate lowest volumes of the year)…

VIX 11.07… lowest since July 2014…

Enabling algos to run some more stops and record highs…

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While hope springs eternal for Q3 GDP, the revised jump in Q2 inventories data (+0.3% in June vs 0.0% exp and +0.2% in May revised up from initial) suggests perhaps Q3 will be a let-down. But all eyes will be focused on Wholesale Sales which surged 1.9% MoM – the most since Sept 2012, though we note sales remain lower (-0.45%) YoY and inventories higher (+0.24%) YoY. This move notched the wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio down to 1.33 – which remains deep in recession territory despite its improvement. Sadly – for the recovery-optimists – auto inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.82x.

Biggest Sales jump in:

• Hardware +7.7%  
• Petroleum Products: +5.1%
• Farm Products: +5.1%

Sales declines in:

• Paper: -1.7%
• Automotives -1.4%
• Prof Equipment: -0.5% 
• Lumber: -0.4%  
• Furniture: -0.3%

But sales gains reduced the ratio…

And perhaps most importantly, wholesale auto inventories rose relative to sales…

Still, it;s probably nothing some more free 10year term credit from the government can’t solve?!

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Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

Sexual violence in Germany has reached epidemic proportions since Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed into the country more than one million mostly male migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

Gatestone Institute first reported Germany's migrant rape crisis in September 2015, when Merkel opened up the German border to tens of thousands of migrants stranded in Hungary. A follow-up report was published in March 2016, in the aftermath of mass attacks against German women by mobs of migrants in Cologne, Hamburg and other German cities.

Germany's migrant rape crisis has now spread to cities and towns in all 16 of Germany's federal states. Germany is effectively under siege; public spaces are becoming increasingly perilous. Police have warned about a potential breakdown of public order this summer, when young male migrants are likely to see women lightly dressed.

During the month of July 2016, hundreds of German women and children were sexually assaulted by migrants (see Appendix below). The youngest victim was nine; the oldest, 79. Attacks occurred at beaches, bike trails, cemeteries, discotheques, grocery stores, music festivals, parking garages, playgrounds, schools, shopping malls, taxis, public transportation (buses, trams, intercity express trains and subways), public parks, public squares, public swimming pools and public restrooms. Predators are lurking everywhere; safety nowhere.

Dozens of women and children have been assaulted by migrants at summer festivals and public swimming pools — staples of ordinary German life.

Sexual violence in Germany has reached epidemic proportions since Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed into the country more than one million mostly male migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The government has been facing a rising voter backlash to the open-door migration policy, including public protests (left). In some areas, authorities have distributed cartoon guides, to "educate" migrants that sexual assault is not acceptable (right).

In July, at least 24 women were sexually assaulted at the Breminale music festival in Bremen. Women were also assaulted at outdoor festivals in Aschheim, Balve, Gerolzhofen, Grenzach-Wyhlen Heide, Loßburg, Lütjenburg, Meschede, Poing, Reutlingen, Sinsheim, Wolfhagen and Wolfratshausen.

In July, women and children were also sexually assaulted at public swimming pools in Babenhausen, Dachau, Delbrück, Hamm, Hilchenbach, Kirchheim, Lörrach, Marklohe, Mönchengladbach, Mörfelden-Walldorf, Oberursel, Remagen, Rinteln, Schwetzingen and Stuttgart-Vaihingen.

Most of the crimes were downplayed by German authorities, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiments. Almost invariably, the crimes are said to be isolated incidents (Einzelfälle), not part of a nationwide problem. Information about sexual assaults can usually be found only in local police reports. Rapes are sometimes treated as local interest stories and covered by local or regional newspapers. Only the most spectacular incidents of rape and sexual assault make it into the national press.

Three rape cases did make it into Germany's national media in July:

• On July 24, a 40-year-old migrant from Eritrea raped a 79-year-old woman in a cemetery in Ibbenbüren. The woman, who lives in a local nursing home, was visiting the grave of her late sister at 6AM when the attack occurred. The migrant, who has been living as a refugee in Germany since 2013, was arrested at the scene. He is unlikely to be deported, however, because Eritrea is considered a conflict zone.

• On July 14, it emerged that one of the women raped by Muslim sex mobs in Cologne on New Year's Eve became pregnant. She failed to report the attack to police because she felt ashamed.

• On July 3, a 24-year-old woman raped by three migrants in Mannheim in January admitted that she lied about the identity of the rapists. Selin Gören, a Turkish-German woman, initially said that her attackers were German nationals, when in fact they were Muslim migrants.

In an interview with Der Spiegel, Gören, the spokeswoman of Germany's left-wing youth movement, Solid, said she lied because she was afraid of fueling racism against migrants. She also posted a letter on Facebook to a fictional refugee:

"I am really sorry that your sexist and line-crossing treatment of me could help fuel aggressive racism. I am going to scream… I will not stand by and watch, and it can happen that racists and concerned citizens name you as the problem. You are not the problem. You are usually a wonderful human being who deserves as much as any other to be safe and free."

German police and media have faithfully mirrored Gören's efforts to protect migrant rapists. German police reports usually refer to migrant criminals with politically correct euphemisms such as "southerners" (Südländer), men with "dark skin" (dunkelhäutig, dunklere Gesichtsfarbe, dunklem Hauttyp) or a combination of the two: "southern skin color" (südländische Hautfarbe).

Germany now finds itself in a vicious circle: most of the perpetrators are never found, and the few who are frequently receive lenient sentences. Most will never be deported. Only one in 10 rapes in Germany is reported and just 8% of rape trials result in convictions, according to Minister of Justice Heiko Maas.

On July 7, the German parliament approved changes to the criminal code that expand the definition of rape and make it easier to deport migrants who commit sex crimes. Under the bill, also known as the "No Means No" ("Nein heißt Nein") law, any form of non-consensual sex will now be punishable as a crime. Previously, only cases in which victims could show that they physically resisted their attackers were punishable under German law.

The reforms, which are designed to make it easier for victims of sexual assault to file criminal complaints, are unlikely to end Germany's migrant rape epidemic. This is because Germany's politically correct justice system is notoriously lenient when it comes to prosecuting, sentencing and deporting foreign offenders.

At the same time, reliable statistics on sex crimes committed by migrants are notoriously elusive. German authorities have repeatedly been accused of underreporting the true scale of the crime problem in the country. For example, up to 90% of the sex crimes committed in Germany in 2014 do not appear in the official statistics, according to André Schulz, the head of the Association of Criminal Police (Bund Deutscher Kriminalbeamter, BDK).

On February 25, the newspaper, Die Welt, reported that authorities in the German state of Hesse were suppressing information about migrant-related crimes, ostensibly due to a "lack of public interest."

On January 24, Die Welt reported that the suppression of data about migrant criminality is a "Germany-wide phenomenon." According to Rainer Wendt, the head of the German police union (Deutschen Polizeigewerkschaft, DPolG), "Every police officer knows he has to meet a particular political expectation. It is better to keep quiet [about migrant crime] because you cannot go wrong."

On January 22, the newsmagazine, Focus, reported that the Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency (Antidiskriminierungsstelle des Bundes, ADS) put pressure on police in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) to remove a reference to "North African criminal groups" in a press release. According to Focus, the ADS wrote: "There is a danger that people from these countries are placed under a general suspicion. We encourage you to delete the reference to the North African origin from the press release." NRW Police later removed the offending words because "it could not be excluded that our formulation in the press release could be misunderstood as a discriminatory statement." The original article by Focus has since been removed from the magazine's webpage.

On January 8, the newspaper, Bild, published an article titled, "Are the Police Being Prohibited from Telling the Truth?" The paper quoted a high-ranking police official in Frankfurt, who said:

"There are strict instructions from the top not to report offenses committed by refugees. Only direct requests from media representatives regarding specific crimes should be answered. … It is extraordinary that certain offenders are deliberately NOT being reported about and the information is being classified as confidential (nicht pressefrei)."

Meanwhile, Boris Palmer, the "progressive" mayor of Tübingen, thinks he has found a solution to the problem of migrants who are raping German women and children in public swimming pools. He wants migrants to become swimming pool superintendents. In a Facebook post, Palmer wrote: "Our municipality has embraced a great prevention and integration measure. We have a Syrian lifeguard who can make known in Arabic and with authority what behavior is allowed and what is not."

Palmer's first hire is a 24-year-old Syrian named Aiham Shalghin. In an interview with Schwäbisches Tagblatt, Shalghin portrayed migrants as the victims of their circumstances: "Many male refugees have never before swum with women. In Syria, most public swimming pools are separated by gender. Men do not want to see women in swimming attire.

Appendix – Sexual Assaults and Rapes by Migrants in Germany, July 2016.

Gatestone Institute first reported Germany's migrant rape epidemic in September 2015, and again in March 2016. The problem has now spread to cities and towns in all 16 of Germany's federal states. Following are a few cases from July 2016:

July 1. A 25-year-old migrant from Pakistan sexually assaulted a 15-year-old girl in a public square in Perleberg. A "southern guy" (südländischer Typ) sexually assaulted a young woman in Nürnberg. A "dark-skinned" man (dunkelhäutig) groped a 15-year-old girl in Magdeburg. A 34-year-old migrant exposed himself to passersby in Oldenburg. A man speaking "broken German" sexually assaulted a 20-year-old woman in Ibbenbüren.

July 1. Police were searching for a "southern looking man" (südländisch aussehende Mann) who assaulted a 73-year-old man walking his dog in Sindelfingen. The migrant came up behind the elderly man, grabbed his crotch and demanded to have sex with him. The elderly man tried to get away by getting into his parked car, but the migrant jumped into the passenger seat and again demanded sex. The migrant ran away when a passerby walking her three dogs approached the parked car. Meanwhile, a 32-year-old migrant from Afghanistan photographed two girls, ages 12 and 14, who were swimming in the Iller River in Illertissen. As they got out of the water, the man offered to pay them for sex.

July 2. A 24-year-old migrant from Albania sexually assaulted several women on a suburban train in Hamburg. A 20-year-old "Black African" man (Mann aus Schwarzafrika) attempted to rape a 27-year-old woman in a women's restroom in Freiburg.

July 3. A "dark-skinned" (dunkler Teint) man sexually assaulted a 44-year-old woman in Kressbronn. A "southerner" (Südländer) attempted to rape a 21-year-old woman in Meppen. A man with a "southeastern European appearance" (südosteuropäischem Aussehen) sexually assaulted a 19-year-old woman in Kühlungsborn. A man with a "southeastern European appearance" exposed himself to a 40-year-old woman at a train station in Mannheim-Lindenhof.

July 4. A "southerner probably of Turkish origin" (Südländer, vermutlich türkischer Abstammung) sexually assaulted a woman in Nordhorn. Police believe the perpetrator sexually assaulted another woman in the same area in late June. A 16-year-old migrant from Afghanistan exposed himself to a mother and her child in a park in Chemnitz. The man was arrested and released. A "dark-skinned" (dunklen Teint) man groped a woman in Düsseldorf. A 28-year-old Iranian sexually harassed an 18-year-old woman in Sundern.

July 5. A 27-year-old migrant from Pakistan groped a 33-year-old woman in Chemnitz. The woman, an off-duty police officer, reportedly gave the man a "painful integration course" by kicking him in the groin. After questioning by police, he was released. A "Black African" (Schwarzafrikaner) attempted to rape a 37-year-old female jogger in Dortmund.

July 6. Two migrants from Afghanistan were formally charged with sexually assaulting a 14-year-old boy at a public swimming pool in Delbrück. A 22-year-old asylum seeker from Afghanistan sexually assaulted two girls, ages 14 and 15, in Ravensburg. An "Arab-looking man" (arabisch aussehenden Mann) sexually assaulted a 20-year-old woman in Heilbronn. Two migrants attempted to rape a 25-year-old woman in downtown Mainz.

July 7. Two "dark-skinned" (dunkle Hautfarbe) men attempted to rape a woman in Friedrichshafen. A 20-year-old migrant from Pakistan was arrested for assaulting several women in Kirchheim. After questioning, he was released.

July 8. Two teenage migrants from North Africa sexually assaulted a woman at the central train station in Krefeld. They were arrested, questioned and released.

July 9. A 29-year-old migrant from Iraq raped a woman at a discotheque in Kiel. A 16-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl at a music festival in Reutlingen. A 28-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a woman at a festival in Lütjenburg. A migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted several women at a festival in Wolfratshausen. Two migrants from North Africa sexually assaulted two women at the central train station in Duisburg. A "southern looking" (südländisches Aussehen) man sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl at the central bus station in Calw. A "dark-skinned" (dunklere Hautfarbe) man molested a 19-year-old woman at an outdoor festival in Poing. A "southern looking" (südländisches Aussehen) man exposed himself to a 16-year-old boy in Xanten. Three "dark-skinned" (dunklem Teint) men assaulted a 40-year-old woman in Böblingen.

July 10. A 19-year-old asylum seeker from Pakistan sexually assaulted a 16-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Mörfelden-Walldorf. He was arrested and released. A 17-year-old migrant sexually assaulted an 11-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Hamm. A "southerner" or "African" (südländisch, afrikanisch) man sexually assaulted a 24-year-old woman at a public swimming pool in Babenhausen. A 27-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted two 13-year-old girls at a public swimming pool in Rinteln. Two males aged 16 and 21 sexually assaulted a 13-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Stuttgart-Vaihingen. A "dark-skinned" (dunklen Teint) man sexually assaulted a 37-year-old woman at a public swimming pool in Dachau.

July 10. Two migrants from Iran sexually assaulted three women in downtown Munich. A 28-year-old Syrian asylum seeker exposed himself to a 48-year-old woman in Schweinfurt. A group of migrants from North Africa harassed several women in downtown Flensburg. When a passerby stepped in to help the women, the migrants used an electroshock weapon to incapacitate him. Two "foreigners" sexually assaulted to women in downtown Chemnitz. The attack led to a street fight between non-Germans and Germans, several of whom were injured. Police arrested a 19-year-old migrant from Libya for assaulting one of the women. After questioning, he was set free. A Turkish taxi driver attempted to rape an intoxicated 26-year-old female passenger in Heidelberg. A man "presumably of foreign origin" (vermutlich ausländischer Herkunft) groped a young girl in Hammelburg.

July 11. A "Black African" (Schwarzafrikaner) raped a 21-year-old woman who was jogging in a public park in Chemnitz. A "southern looking" (südländischen Teint) attempted to rape a woman in Falkensee. A "southern looking" (südländischen Teint) man exposed himself to a 52-year-old woman on a bike trail in Kleinmachnow. A "dark-skinned" (dunkelhäutig) man groped a 78-year-old woman in Kempten.

July 12. A 16-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted two women on a bicycle path in Kelheim. A "southern guy" (Südländischer Typ) exposed himself to a 56-year-old woman in Stolberg. A 23-year-old migrant from Tunisia and a 30-year-old migrant from Kazakhstan assaulted several women in Olsberg. A "southern looking" (südländisches Aussehen) man attempted to rape a woman in Göttingen.

July 13. A 35-year-old man with a "southern phenotype" (südländischen Phänotyps) attempted to rape a 43-year-old woman in Mücheln. The woman escaped her attacker after she pepper-sprayed him in the face. A "southern looking" (südländisches Aussehen) man groped a 15-year-old girl in Meschede. A "dark-skinned" man exposed himself to a nine-year-old girl in Stuttgart. The girl was trying to cross the street when the man drove up in a car and asked her for directions. When she approached the car, she noticed that the man was not wearing pants and was fondling himself. A "foreigner" (Ausländer) sexually assaulted a woman at a bus stop in Marburg.

July 14. A 36-year-old migrant from Tunisia was charged with raping a 61-year-old woman in Freiberg. Police believe the man is responsible for at least three other sexual assaults in the town. A 27-year-old migrant sexually assaulted a 37-year-old woman at an outdoor festival in Wolfhagen. At the same festival, a 25-year-old migrant from Algeria sexually assaulted a 34-year-old woman, and a 19-year-old migrant sexually harassed several women. A "dark-skinned" (dunkelhäutig) man assaulted two 18-year-old women in Friedrichsdorf. A 17-year-old unaccompanied minor migrant (unbegleitete minderjährige Flüchtlinge) assaulted several girls between the ages of 13 and 15 at a train station in Bensheim.

July 15. At least 24 women were sexually assaulted at a music festival in Bremen. The attacks were similar to the taharrush attacks in Cologne on New Year's Eve. Police have found only five perpetrators, all of whom are migrants from Afghanistan. Harald Lührs, the lead investigator for sex crimes in Bremen said: "We have never experienced such massive attacks in Bremen. That groups of men surround women in order to grope them, this has never happened here in this magnitude. This is a new problem that the police have to deal with."

July 15. A 22-year-old asylum seeker from Pakistan sexually assaulted a 19-year-old woman in Meppen. A migrant sexually harassed a 17-year-old girl on public transport in Ludwigsburg. A 36-year-old migrant from Syria groped two women at a supermarket in Rottenburg. A "dark-skinned" (dunkler Haut) man sexually assaulted a 28-year-old woman in Würzburg. A migrant sexually harassed four girls, ages 10 and 11, on a train in the Black Forest.

July 16. Five women were sexually assaulted at an outdoor festival in Sinsheim. A "Black African" raped a 21-year-old woman at a festival in Aschheim. Two North Africans attempted to rape two 18-year-old women at the central train station in Trier. A 25-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 30-year-old woman in Übersee. A 17-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 21-year-old woman in Meppen. Police say the migrant sexually assaulted four other women in Meppen in recent weeks. A "dark-skinned" (dunkle Hautfarbe) man exposed himself to a 37-year-old woman in Paderborn. A group of "foreigners" sexually assaulted a 27-year-old woman in Jena. A 36-year-old migrant from Afghanistan assaulted a young woman in Eichstätt.

July 17. Two "Arab-looking" man sexually assaulted a 20-year-old woman in front of the Basilica of Constantine in Trier. A 25-year-old migrant from Iraq repeatedly groped a 25-year-old woman at a discotheque in Landau. When a stranger intervened to protect the woman, the Iraqi went into a rage. The woman ended up with a broken nose. A "dark-skinned" (dunkle Haut) man attempted to rape a 45-year-old woman on a bicycle path in Rüsselsheim. A 38-year-old migrant exposed himself to two women in a parking lot in Würzburg. Three migrants groped a 15-year-old girl on a bus in Rostock. A 36-year-old migrant sexually assaulted a 34-year-old woman at an outdoor festival in Wolfhagen.

July 18. Three migrants sexually assaulted a 25-year-old woman as she was walking to work in downtown Saarlouis. A "dark-skinned" man (dunkelhäutigen Mann) sexually assaulted a 15-year-old girl in Grassau. Two "dark-skinned" men (dunkelhäutigen Männern) sexually assaulted two girls, ages 14 and 15, at the central train station in Gießen. A 25-year-old asylum seeker from Syria sexually assaulted a 16-year-old girl in Güsten. A 17-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 13-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Hamm. An 18-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted two girls, ages 13 and 16, at a public swimming pool in Oberursel. An 18-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted two children, ages 10 and 12, at a public swimming pool in Remagen. A "southern guy" (südländischer Typ) attempted to rape a 16-year-old girl in Delitzsch. A "southerner" (südländisch) sexually assaulted a 48-year-old woman who was walking her dog in Darmstadt.

July 19. Five migrants from Afghanistan and Eritrea sexually assaulted two women at a festival in Gerolzhofen. Two 17-year-old asylum seekers sexually assaulted two girls, ages 11 and 13, in Triptis. A "dark-skinned" (dunkler Hauttyp) man exposed himself to a 17-year-old girl in Weinheim. Police published a composite photograph of a "person from Syria or Lebanon" who sexually assaulted a woman in downtown Dortmund. Three migrants assaulted three women in downtown Oldenburg. When one of the women demanded that the migrants leave them alone, a 23-year-old Algerian punched her in the face. The three men were arrested and then released.

July 20. A group of men with "Arab roots" (arabischstämmig) sexually assaulted five girls, aged 10 to 14, at a public swimming pool in Kirchheim. The men, all between the ages of 20 and 30, groped the girls and tore off the tops and bottoms of their swimming suits. Mayor Angelika Matt-Heidecker, who said she was "horrified" by the assaults, revealed that she had given the migrants permanent pool passes, free of charge. Local citizens are required to pay €90 ($100) for the same pass.

July 20. A "dark skinned" man (dunkelhäutigen Mann) raped a 49-year-old woman in Oldenburg. A man "presumably originating from abroad" (mutmaßlich aus dem Ausland stammende Mann) attempted to assault a 17-year-old girl on a bus in Bietigheim-Bissingen. Police say a search for the perpetrator has been "unsuccessful." Three migrants from Afghanistan sexually assaulted at least eight women at a public swimming pool in Mönchengladbach. A 52-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 12-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Marklohe. A group of "Black Africans" (Schwarzafrikaner) sexually assaulted several women at a public swimming pool in Lörrach.

July 20. A 31-year-old asylum seeker from Syria was arrested for sexually assaulting a 17-year-old girl in Regensburg. Four "southern looking" (südländischem Aussehen) men assaulted a woman in Varel. A "Pakistani-looking" man sexually assaulted a 23-year-old woman at a grocery store in Lüneburg. A 34-year-old migrant from Iran sexually assaulted a 20-year-old woman on the subway in Munich. A 44-year-old migrant from Sudan sexually assaulted three children between the ages of 13 and 17 at a youth center in Aurich.

July 21. An Arab migrant (arabischen Raum stammende Mann) sexually assaulted an 11-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Hilchenbach. Two "foreigners with dark skin" (Ausländer mit dunkler Hautfarbe) assaulted a 14-year-old girl in Wolgast. A "dark-skinned" (dunkelhäutig) man exposed himself to two 18-year-old women in Kempten. A 26-year-old migrant from Iraq exposed himself to a 64-year-old woman at the central train station in Dresden. Two "southern looking" (südländischen Aussehen) men sexually assaulted an 18-year-old woman on a train in Bestwig. When her boyfriend intervened, the migrants attacked him. The altercation turned into fisticuffs in which windows on the train were shattered. After the train stopped, the migrants fled. They remain at large.

July 22. A 52-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 12-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Marklohe. A 40-year-old asylum seeker was arrested for sexually assaulting a girl at a public swimming pool in Grenzach-Wyhlen. A 23-year-old migrant from North Africa raped a 26-year-old woman in Mannheim. The woman was seriously injured in the attack. The man was charged with attempted murder.

July 23. An unidentified migrant raped a 15-year-old girl at the central train station in Krefeld. While on a train from Duisburg, the girl noticed that a group of six migrants were staring at her. After arriving at her stop, she entered a public restroom. Upon exiting, one of the migrants grabbed her and raped her while the others stood by and watched. A passerby intervened to rescue the girl. The perpetrators escaped.

July 23. An 18-year-old migrant from Nigeria raped a 28-year-old woman in Kassel. A man with a "dark complexion" (dunkler Teint) sexually assaulted a 19-year-old woman in Recklinghausen. A "dark-skinned man" (dunkelhäutigen Mann) sexually assaulted a woman in Braunschweig. A group of "southerners" sexually assaulted at least four women at a festival in Meschede.

July 23. A group of migrants accosted a 40-year-old woman in front of the city hall in Kerpen. As she tried to run away, the mob followed her shouting, "We will f**k you, Lady." After the woman wrote about her experience on Facebook, someone staked out the area in front of city hall and found that many female passersby were also being accosted. As it turns out, groups of migrant youth gather in front of the city hall because of a free wireless internet signal. City officials said they would install free internet access at a nearby refugee shelter in hopes that the migrants will no longer gather in front of the city hall.

July 24. A 40-year-old migrant from Eritrea raped a 79-year-old woman in a cemetery in Ibbenbüren. The woman, who lives in a local nursing home, was visiting the grave of her late sister at 6AM when the attack occurred. The migrant, who has been living as a refugee in Germany since 2013, was arrested at the scene.

July 24. A group of between five and seven migrants from Albania sexually assaulted two teenagers at a beach in Travemünde. The men encircled the girls, aged 15 and 16, in order to separate them from the rest of their friends. One of the men then dragged the 16-year-old into the water and tried to remove the bottom of her bikini. All of the men managed to evade police.

July 24. Five "Black Africans" (Schwarzafrika stammenden Männern) sexually assaulted an 18-year-old woman at a festival in Loßburg. A "Black African" (Schwarzafrikaner) assaulted a woman at the train station in Maulburg. Two "dark skinned" (dunkler Hautfarbe) sexually assaulted at least three women at a festival in Balve.

July 24. A 23-year-old migrant from Afghanistan sexually assaulted a 16-year-old girl at a public swimming pool in Schwetzingen. The man denied assaulting the girl and the police let him go. A 24-year-old migrant groped a woman at a bar in Mainz. He was arrested after he began throwing bottles at cars parked outside the premises. A "dark skinned" (dunkelhäutig) man exposed himself to a 22-year-old woman in Mönchengladbach-Wickrath. A "dark skinned man" (dunkelhäutigen Mann) exposed himself to two women on a street in downtown Erlenbach.

July 25. Police released a composite sketch of a "southerner" who attempted to rape a woman in Schwarzenbek. Five "southern-looking" (südländischem Erscheinungsbild) men exposed themselves to women and children at a lake in Potsdam.

July 26. A 13-year-old Syrian and a 15-year-old Iraqi groped a 19-year-old woman at a water park in Wismar. Two migrants from Eritrea sexually assaulted a 45-year-old woman in downtown Gera.

July 27. Four boys between the ages of 11 and 13 sexually assaulted a 12-year-old girl in Königsbach-Stein. The boys, all of whom are children of Syrian and Iraqi asylum seekers, pinned the girl against the wall of a building and forced her to perform sexual acts on them. According to police, the boys are too young to be held criminally responsible for their behavior. Therefore, social workers have been instructed to help the boys "understand the wrongfulness of their actions" by means of "intensive conversations" about "values and the local understanding of gender roles."

July 27. A man speaking "broken German" (gebrochenes Deutsch) sexually assaulted a 36-year-old woman on an intercity express train in Karlsruhe. He repeatedly groped the woman and demanded that she perform sexual acts on him. After the train arrived in Karlsruhe, the woman called police, but the perpetrator escaped before they arrived.

July 27. A 19-year-old migrant attempted to rape a 24-year-old volunteer at a refugee shelter in Röhrmoos. A "dark-skinned" (dunklen Teint) man sexually assaulted a 24-year-old woman in Erfurt. Police released a composite sketch of a "southern-looking man" (südländischen Aussehens) who exposed himself to women on public transportation in Cologne.

July 28. A group of four migrants from Morocco harassed female passersby at the central train station in Düsseldorf. Police intervened and the migrants attacked the officers. The migrants all have lengthy criminal records. One with an outstanding deportation order was detained. The three migrants demanded that the police to release their compatriot: "You come out! We will crush you! We will slash you!"

July 29. A 29-year-old migrant from North Africa was charged with attempting to rape and murder a 26-year-old woman in Mannheim. A 40-year-old migrant (ausländischer Mann) assaulted two women in Cloppenburg. A 27-year-old migrant from Iraq groped a 17-year-old girl at the Alexanderplatz in Berlin.

July 30. Six Syrian migrants spiked the drinks of two women at a music festival in Heide. The women fell ill with symptoms of dizziness and were taken to a local hospital. The migrants escaped before police arrived. An 18-year-old "asylum seeker" from Morocco sexually assaulted a 22-year-old woman in Hamburg. He was arrested and then released. Although the Moroccan's asylum request has been denied, he has not been deported. Instead, he has become a career criminal, with a long rap sheet, including assault and robbery charges.

July 30. A 40-year-old asylum seeker sexually assaulted an 11-year-old boy at a supermarket in the village of Ering. The perpetrator was arrested at the scene of the crime and released. Three migrants from Iraq were arrested for sexually assaulting several women at a train station in Berlin-Friedrichshain.

July 31. Four asylum seekers from Pakistan raped a 17-year-old girl in Wetzlar. The men plied the girl with alcohol until she became drunk and then took turns raping her. Five North Africans assaulted a 26-year-old woman in Rheine.

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