2 Simple Charts Show Which State Pensions Are Most Likely To Enforce Benefit Cuts

A new research note from Moody’s found that State pension funds were underfunded by $1.3 trillion at the end of FY15 but was expected to grow to $1.8 trillion at the end of FY17 as pensions continue to struggle with low returns.  We’ve discussed the unintended consequences of the Central Bank’s low-rate polices on pension funds multiples times (see “Pension Duration Dilemma – Why Pension Funds Are Driving The Biggest Bond Bubble In History“)…with the two most likely outcomes being benefits cuts for pensioners and/or crippling tax hikes for citizens.

Total US state aggregate adjusted net pension liabilities (ANPL) totaled $1.25 trillion, or 119% of revenue in fiscal 2015, Moody’s Investors Service says in a new report. The results, based on compliance with new GASB 68 accounting rules, set a new ANPL baseline and are poised to rise for the next two fiscal years as market returns fall below annual targets.

 

The median return for public pension plans in FY 2016 was 0.52% compared to an average assumed investment return of 7.5%,” Moody’s Vice President — Senior Credit Officer Marcia Van Wagner says. “We project that aggregate state ANPL will grow to $1.75 trillion in FY 2017 audits.

 

The states with the highest pension burdens — measured as the largest three-year average ANPL as a percent of state governmental revenue — were consistent with previous years. Illinois topped the list with pension liabilities at 280% of total governmental revenue, followed by Connecticut (Aa3 negative) at 209%, Alaska (Aa2 negative) at 179%, Kentucky at 162%, and New Jersey at 157%.

Given that pretty much every state pension is now underfunded, Moody’s introduced a new metric which they referred to as the “Tread Water” benchmark.  The largest underfunded plans in Kentucky, Illinois and New Jersey would require an incremental 7 – 7.5% of annual state revenue for contributions in order to simply stop unfunded liabilities from growing further.

Moody’s new report also introduces a new “Tread Water” benchmark, which measures whether states’ annual contributions to their pensions are enough to keep the unfunded net liability from growing. For FY 2015, states were evenly divided between falling short and exceeding the benchmark.

 

The report “States — US: Medians – Low Returns, Weak Contributions Drive Continued Growth of State Pension Liabilities,” says there were several states whose pension contributions were notably below the Tread Water mark, including Kentucky (Aa2 stable), New Jersey (A2 negative), Illinois (Baa2 negative), and Texas (Aaa stable).

 

To tread water, Kentucky would have had to contribute an additional 7.5% of revenue to its pension plans; the figure for Illinois is 6.8% of revenue and 6.9% for New Jersey. A tread water contribution plus debt service and retiree health care costs would result in total fixed costs of 33.5% for fiscally stressed Illinois and almost 31% of revenues for Connecticut.

Meanwhile, the CATO Institute points out that wages and benefits for state employees totaled $1.4 trillion in 2015 or 53% of total state and local spending.  Moreover, the report highlights that retirement benefits for state and local workers are substantially higher than the private sector at roughly $4.80 per hour compared to $1.23 per hour for private-sector workers. 

The largest component of state and local government spending is compensation for 16 million employees.  Total wages and benefits for state and local workers was $1.4 trillion in 2015, which accounted for 53 percent of all state and local spending.

 

State and local workers typically receive more generous benefit packages than do private-sector workers.  On average, retirement benefits for state and local workers cost $4.80 per hour, compared to $1.23 per hour for  private-sector workers. Insurance benefits (mainly  health  insurance)  for state  and  local  workers cost $5.43 per hour, compared to $2.59 per hour for the private sector.  Most state and local workers receive retirement health benefits, whereas most private-sector workers do not.

 

The costs of government pension and retirement health benefits are expected to rise rapidly in coming years.  Governments have promised their  workers generous retirement benefits, but most states have not put enough money aside to pay for them.  As a consequence, state and local governments will either have to cut benefits in coming years or impose higher taxes. 

Per the following chart, many states have racked up over $20,000 of liabilities per capita, a level from which it will be very difficult to recover absent benefit cuts, massive tax hikes and/or a federal bailout.

Debt, Pension, OPEB

 

Looking at pensions on a standalone basis, New Jersey, Illinois and Alaska remain the most at risk with underfunded liabilities equal to over $10,000 per person living in those states.  Meanwhile, only Wisconsin and South Dakota have fully funded plans.

Pension

 

But, as the CATO Institute points out, the pension crisis is likely much worse than what most auditor reports would suggest because discount rates of 7.4% are unreasonably high.  CATO estimates that reducing the discount rate from 7.4% to 2.7% would increase state pension underfunded liabilities from $1.2 trillion to $3.4 trillion. 

Pension shortfalls are actually larger than these figures indicate.  Those are the officially reported figures, but financial experts think that the discount rates used to report pension liabilities are too high.  Higher discount rates reduce reported liabilities and create an overly optimistic picture of pension plan health.

 

In his study, Rauh recalculated pension plan funding using a 2.7 percent discount rate, rather than the official average rate of 7.4 percent.  His    recalculated  unfunded  liability jumps from $1.2 trillion to $3.4 trillion.  Similarly, Munnell and Aubry found that their unfunded pension liabilities  jumped to $4.1 trillion if plans are estimated using a 4 percent discount rate.  Under that assumption, the funding level of state and local pension plans averages just 45 percent.

Unfortunately, the pension ponzi becomes more and more unsustainable each year with funds simply borrowing from future benefit payments, which are almost certainly impaired in many states, while paying current benefit recipients in full.  While these types of “kick the can down the road” games can be played for a long time, eventually the massive underfundings will have to be addressed…and that will not be a pretty day.

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Carl Icahn Defends Trump, Slams Hypocrisy Of High-Level People “Outraged By Locker Room Talk”

Following an exodus of high-ranking republican Trump supporters over the past 48 hours who have either rescinded their support of the candidate or called for him to step down, Carl Icahn remains a steadfast supporter of Donald Trump, saying that he is amazed by the fake “outrage” by what “everyone knows is going on in every locker room in the country.”

In an interview with CNBC, Icahn – who earlier today shut down the iconic casino bearing Trump’s name in Atlantic City – said that “over my years I’ve listened to a lot of salacious talk in locker rooms, bachelor parties etc. by a lot of high-level people, some of whom are now supposedly so outraged,” Trump told CNBC.com in a phone interview. “All I can do is refer to that great quote, ‘Let he who has not sinned cast the first stone.'”

To be sure, Trump has already apologized for his comments, also using the “locker room” analogy to explain the scenario that led to the remarks.

Icahn continued, slamming the hypocrisy of all those who have express outrage over the past two days: “It’s amazing that everyone is outraged by something that everyone knows is going on in every locker room in the country.”

Most importantly, Icahn said Trump is the clear candidate for business. “I thought Donald made a number of great points in the debate last night,” he said. “Today it is perceived that government is at war with business. This perception must be changed, and it is certainly not being changed by Hillary Clinton.

“It is imperative that many changes in Washington must be made,” he said. “I am therefore still obviously still behind Donald Trump.”

Which, of course, is the core issue: the last thing Washington, Wall Street, corporate America and the affiliated media, want and would allow is change, which is why Trump’s road to the White House looks more and more unlikely with every passing day.

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Trump Won the Debate – What Does it Mean?

Trump and Clinton mainly treated the audience and their questions as an annoying interlude to their dispute, flashing fake smiles before launching into their next tirade. Both candidates came off like divorcing parents interrupted by their concerned kids, thus angering them further. The final questioner even asked Clinton and Trump to say something nice about each other.

It was sad and it was a bit scary.

Did Trump win? It’s hard to say if such a debate, where two ultra-rich New Yorkers yell at each other about tax avoidance can be won — but if it can then Trump did win, in my view. He won by hammering home every point repeatedly, commandeering the town hall’s narrative and forcing Clinton constantly on the defensive at every opportunity. Trump won by sucking up all the oxygen in the debate hall. He won by taking the debate to the absolute maximum of serious, alarming accusations and showing how Clinton would only respond to it by saying mean things he had said.

Trump may be a king of flip flopping, but he still made Clinton look worse. This debate will be seen as a particularly big win for Trump among voters unimpressed by the media’s perceived crusade against their beloved real estate tycoon.

– From The Hill article: Trump Plays the Berserk Card for the Win

With his back completely up against the wall and everything on the line, Trump did exactly what he had to do last night to stay in the game and shift enough people’s attention away from the damaging audio released on Friday. Trump’s primary purpose in this debate couldn’t have been to shift the entire election back in his favor, that would’ve been virtually impossible outside of Hillary literally collapsing on stage. His primary objective was to stem the bleeding, and provide justification to those still open to the idea of “voting against Hillary Clinton” in this election. I think he did that.

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Carl Icahn Shuts Trump Taj Mahal After 26 Years Of Operation; 3,000 Union Workers Lose Their Jobs

In what may not have been the most opportune time for the presidential candidate, the Atlantic City casino bearing his name – if little else – the Trump Taj Mahal, which Donald Trump opened 26 years ago calling it “the eighth wonder of the world”, officially closed today. To be sure, the now defunct structure had no trace of ownership to Trump, and instead was until yesterday owned by Trump’s friend and fellow billionaire Carl Icahn, who closed the casino on Monday morning, making it the fifth casualty of Atlantic City’s casino crisis. Nearly 3,000 workers lost their jobs, bringing the total jobs lost by Atlantic City casino closings to 11,000 since 2014.

The sprawling Boardwalk casino, with its soaring domes, minarets and towers built to mimic the famed Indian palace, shut down at 5:59 a.m., having failed to reach a deal with its union workers to restore health care and pension benefits that were taken away from them in bankruptcy court. 

Picketers affixed an anti-Icahn poster that they had signed to the casino’s main Boardwalk entrance door. It proclaimed “We held the line.” “We held the line against a billionaire taking from us!” said Marc Scittina, a food service worker at the Taj Mahal’s player’s club since shortly after it opened in 1990. “This battle has been going on for two years.”

Indeed they did, however as a result, they are now unemployed in one of the worst job markets in the US.

The union went on strike July 1, and Icahn decided to shut the place down a little over a month later, determining there was “no path to profitability.”

* * *

The Taj Mahal becomes the fifth Atlantic City casino to go out of business since 2014, when four others shut their doors. Unlike previous closures, however, this shutdown was different: it involves a casino built by the Republican candidate for president, who took time out from the campaign trail to lament its demise. “I felt they should have been able to make a deal,” Trump told The Associated Press in a recent interview. “It’s hard to believe they weren’t able to make a deal.”

As ABC notes, Chuck Baker, a cook at the Taj Mahal since the day it opened in April 1990, was on the picket line at the moment it shut down. He was there when the doors opened and wanted to be there when they closed. He led a moment of silence among the otherwise rowdy 200 or so picketers on the Boardwalk outside the casino.

“This didn’t have to happen,” he said. “To (Icahn), it’s all just business. But to us, it’s destroying our livelihoods and our families. You take away our health care, our pensions and overload the workers, we just can’t take it.”

Of course, it would not have happened if the business had some hope of returning to profitability, however as a result of the union’s inability to move on key expense items, the outcome was the worst possible one for all parties.

Still, the Union was seemingly happier with that conclusion than continuing to work under previous conditions. Bob McDevitt, president of Local 54 of the Unite-HERE union, said virtually all of the striking workers feel the same way. “Everybody has their Popeye moment: ‘That’s all I can stands; I can’t stands no more,’ ” he said. “The workers made a choice that they weren’t going to accept benefits and terms of employment worse than everyone else’s. I applaud them: For the first time in 30 years, workers stood up to Carl Icahn and made him throw in the towel.

That said we doubt Carl Icahn will shed any tears: the billionaire investor reached his limit on Aug. 3, when he determined the $350 million he had lost investing in, and then owning, the Taj Mahal was enough. It was then that he decided to close the casino, fearing he would lose an additional $100 million next year.

“Today is a sad day for Atlantic City,” he said Monday. “Like many of the employees at the Taj Mahal, I wish things had turned out differently.”

* * *

Meanwhile, with yelling, chanting workers just outside the glass doors, Taj Mahal workers had trouble locking them, trying to jam wooden wedges into door frames to keep them from opening. Finally they succeeded in affixing barriers to the doors. The Taj had actually been shutting down slowly for nearly two weeks. Many table games were left unstaffed, and workers cordoned off entire banks of slot machines with yellow caution tape last week as others ripped the electronic guts from them. Liquor had been removed from some service bars, and even soap dispensers disconnected from bathroom walls.

As for Donald Trump, he said that he will demand that his name come off the building now that it is closed, as he similarly did with Trump Plaza after it, too, closed in 2014. As of last week, a sign over the main entrance that had proclaimed “Donald J. Trump presents Taj Mahal” was already gone.

The Taj Mahal joins the Atlantic Club, Showboat, Trump Plaza and Revel as Atlantic City casinos that, since 2014, have succumbed to economic pressure brought about in large measure by competition from casinos in neighboring states. The city now has seven casinos, on their way to zero.

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Gold Realizes the Sad Truth… the Fed Screwed Up

The Fed is Officially Screwed.

The Fed has maintained rates too low for too long. Historically any time this has happened we’ve had an inflationary disaster soon after.

The Fed claims to be data dependent, but if you’re talking about inflation data this is a lie.

Core inflation hit the Fed’s “target” of 2% back in October 2015. The Fed has hiked rates only once since then. And inflation is rising, NOT falling.

Sticky inflation has been above the Fed’s target rate of 2% since mid-2014.

And yet, rates remain at 0.5% with only one rate hike in the last decade. Meanwhile commodities have bottomed from their 2014-2016 shellacking and are now moving sharply higher.

The CRB index is up 21%.

Oil just broke above $50 per barrel.

What happens to the inflation data once it starts picking up on these moves? What happens when the 2014 and 2015 prices are no longer the year over year comparisons and energy prices are up 10% year over year?

Gold is already picking up on it. Once this current correction ends, the precious metal will be clearing $1500 per ounce.

We believe the next leg up is about to begin for Gold. Those who remember form the last Gold bull market in the ‘70s, it was the second leg of Gold’s bull market that saw the most gains.

From 1970 to 1974, Gold rose 550%. It then took two-year breather before beginning its second, much larger leg up. During that second leg, it rose over 900% in value.

If Gold were to stage a similar move now, it would rise to over $10,000 per ounce.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning a secret back-door play on Gold that gives you access to 25 million ounces of Gold that the market is currently valuing at just $273 per ounce.

The report is titled The Gold Mountain: How to Buy Gold at $273 Per Ounce

We are giving away just 100 copies for FREE to the public.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

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Article 50 “Perfectly Timed” For Turmoil

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Labour spin doctor, Alastair Campbell Slammed the Prime Minister for Revealing the Article 50 Timing. Others have done the same.

Timing of the article 50 announcement, by March 2017, is ahead of French and German elections. Politicians will have elections, not Brexit on their minds.

Many blame Theresa May because it will take time off the negotiations.

Politically speaking, May knows precisely what she is doing.

Those who think otherwise, need to consider how well she has rounded up support in many quarters by offering something to everyone: UK Prime Minister Attacks QE, Irresponsible Capitalism, Tax-Dodging Companies.

The date was carefully timed, precisely to put pressure on Angela Merkel by German car manufacturers (European car manufacturers and businesses in general), telling Merkel to go easy.

Late last week the Financial Times reported Merkel Warns European Business Not to Press for ‘Comfortable’ UK Trade Deals.

Mrs May’s insistence on new immigration controls and an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice makes it highly unlikely that Britain would seek to stay in the EU’s single market.

 

British ministers instead now speculate on the possibility of seeking sectoral deals to keep trade flowing, including a special regime for key traded goods such as cars. They also argue that the importance of the UK as a market for EU goods will oblige European governments to offer favourable trade terms.

 

Ms Merkel urged companies in sectoral talks to resist “pressure from European industry associations” and avoid the temptation to set aside EU principles — especially the freedom of movement — because it was “comfortable” to do so.

 

The chancellor dropped her usual references to the importance of maintaining close ties with the UK and instead highlighted her main priority — keeping together the EU 27.

 

She told the annual conference of the BDI, the German industry association: “If we don’t insist that full access to the single market is tied to complete acceptance of the four basic freedoms, then a process will spread across Europe whereby everyone does and is allowed what they want.”

That Merkel felt the need to make such statements shows precisely whet she is up against.

Businesses are going to press for free trade, and they should. Is the loss of jobs worth the alleged “integrity” of the “single market”?

If you have to act like gang leaders to maintain integrity, how much integrity do you really have?

 

 

 

Merkel will not listen of course, but will she be around? Another mess could just do her in. Well done, Theresa May!

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Paul Ryan Tells House GOP He Will Not Defend Or Campaign With Donald Trump

Heading into Monday, there was speculation that Speaker Paul Ryan would rescing his endorsement of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump after the emergence of the Trump Tapes, following an exodus of his lawmaker peers doing the same over the weekend. The Speaker had a conference call scheduled for 11 a.m. on Monday with House Republican, to assess Donald Trump’s debate performance and advise rank-and-file Republicans on how to deal with fallout from leaked audio.

As of last night, no decision had been made, but as Politico adds, “that the speaker of the House has even mulled abandoning his own party’s presidential nominee is illustrative of the extraordinarily bizarre political climate in the Republican Party. “I think they all face the same dilemma to varying degrees,” a senior House Republican leadership aide said, echoing the sentiment of multiple high-level aides and lawmakers interviewed by POLITICO. “How to express displeasure in a meaningful way… How best to help members in tough races… How to try to rebuild the party post the anticipated apocalypse. I think they are all having individual and group discussions wrestling with this.”

And while it remains unclear what has been decided, moments ago, Politico’s Jake Sherman tweeted that while there was no formal decision, Paul Ryan announced that he won’t defend Trump and “will focus the next 28 days on keeping the House majority”

 

 

Which is as close to Ryan abandoning Trump as the House speaker could have gone without officially withdrawing his support, and leading to even greater chaos for the republican party.

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UBS Chairman Warns Central Bank Intervention Is Forcing Investors “To Make Bad Choices With Their Money”

With the endless jawboning from officialdom that 'everything is awesome' (or about to be) in a desperate attempt to keep the status quo fumbling along, it is once again refreshing when an ex-insider 'fesses up that, in fact, nothing is awesome and it's a total shitshow below the surface.

UBS Chairman Axel Weber is a former policymaker at The ECB and was the president of Germany's Bundesbank.

Speaking on the sidelines of ther annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank this weekend, CNBC reports Weber warning…that monetary intervention is causing international spillovers and major disturbances in global markets.

"They (central banks) have taken on massive interventions in the market, you could almost say that central banks are now the central counterparties in many markets. They are the ultimate buyer,"

 

"Investors have been driven into investments where they have very little capability for dealing with what is on their plate and I think that is a sure reminder of where we were in a different asset class in 2007," he said.

 

"So I think the central bankers need to be very careful that they do not continue to produce disturbances in the markets, which they acknowledge – it's a known side effect – but the perception that the underlying impact of monetary policy outweighs the potential side effect in my view is starting to be wrong," he added.

 

Since the global financial crash of 2008, central bank policy has focused on buying up bonds in large quantities and cutting interest rates to record lows. The Federal Reserve has since looked to unwind its own policy which focused on the Treasury market and the yield curve, but the Bank of Japan and the ECB's large-scale bond-buying programs continue.

 

"I don't think a single trader can tell you what the appropriate price of an asset he buys is, if you take out all this central bank intervention," Weber warned, adding that it often meant investors were making bad choices with where to put their money.

Still we are sure this is probably nothing to worry about…

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Bill Clinton is not responsible for the economic boom of the 90s

After listening to ridiculous comments as expected from a Clinton, that are offensive on multiple levels, we need to set the record straight about one of the best economic periods in American History; the late 80’s and 90s.  During the career of Bill Clinton, something happened in American politics which was a transformation of a ‘political’ system, where intellectuals would debate issues of the day, and suggest policy changes – to one of a ‘pay for play’ business regime, culminating in the shadow government we have today.  Talking about special interests in modern politics is a joke – ‘special interests’ control the entire system.  The idea of a Trump is that this isn’t an issue, because he’s self-funding his campaign, and well – he’s not a politician.  But that doesn’t mean he can as a single individual stand up to the special interests – he may be very well overrun by this virus that’s eaten away the core of our political system.  As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – the world isn’t as it seems, the world works in simple ways – those in power just like to make it look complicated.

The thing that business people have to understand about politics as a business – it’s not a normal business.  Making a business out of politics is very corrupt.  Accepting money for the formation of laws, is an uber – conflict of interest.  

Business people must fulfill a need, perform excellent customer service, or create something unique that the market wants.  Businessmen are ALWAYS tested by the market – and they’re always one trade away from ruining their entire business.  One recall from Toyota- risks their entire business.  One bad property deal from Trump – one deal with the ‘wrong’ person – risks the entire operation.  POLITICIANS DO NOT HAVE THAT PROBLEM.  They are never ‘tested’ for performance and if they are ever ‘questioned’ about it, they can simply use their power to make these risks minimal.  Unfortunately, they are all on board with this system.

Politicians, have no value per se, they do not need to have a skill, be literate, do their jobs properly, or perform excellent customer service.  In fact, quite the opposite.  Once elected, a politican needs to be proven to commit huge crimes in order to be ousted from office.  And that, as we’ve seen with HRC, is nearly impossible (because, they control the police, FBI, etc.).  Politicans have no value or skill – they have POWER.  Because once they are in office, they can enact ordinances, executive orders, create taxes, declare emergencies, zone property, create business licenses, enforce or not enforce regulations, and many other powers.  So during the course of the last 60 years, they realized they can sell on the open market their one asset – power.  It goes to the highest bidder.  Make no mistake – they are not complete puppets for their customers, they are subject to market forces that change things, make mistakes, and do not always acheive the outcomes they desire.  However, this power broker system persists in Washington to this day, and is the dominating cog in the political system.  

Bill Clinton in some way was a genius in capitalizing on this system first locally in Arkansas and then riding this gravy train all the way to the White House.  Bill Clinton was not a businessman, not an economist, not an intellectual.  He was a musician by vocation and lawyer by occupation:

Sometime in my sixteenth year, I decided I wanted to be in public life as an elected official. I loved music and thought I could be very good, but I knew I would never be John Coltrane or Stan Getz. I was interested in medicine and thought I could be a fine doctor, but I knew I would never be Michael DeBakey. But I knew I could be great in public service.[3]

The 90’s was a culmination of the 80s, and several key factors, were macro circumstances that produced the boom of the 90s:

  • The collapse of the Soviet Union – leaving many vassal states for the US to claim, expand business, provide loans – it was a gold rush!
  • A continual lowering of the interest rate – not quite QE, but at the time, it was extreme
  • Strong European financial economy, being supported by the US – culminating in the Euro in 1999
  • Due to collapse of USSR, Military budget was slashed, billions flowed into technology instead of bombs, which allowed the massive tech sector to be built (Internet, Google, Microsoft)
  • Immigrants, capital, and ideas all flowed into the USA during this time, supporting the economy
  • China in early expansion, during a period where China ‘needed’ USA, Wal Mart expanding, US-China trade exploding (both ways – not only imports)
  • Iraq war, although a huge economic waste, had less economic devastation than other wars (like Vietnam) and enabled 10 years of cheap oil and strong US Dollar

These are just some of the economic markers.  Each should be allowed its own elaboration, as many of these points fall through the cracks of modern macroeconomics, i.e. FOREX.  That’s because 99% of economists don’t consider money supply in their analysis.  Let’s be practical, there’s hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the United States during the 90s from other countries – is this significant?  Does this support the US Dollar?  Of course it does.  And more importantly, the money stayed here, it grew the economy, built businesses, created jobs – it was the ideal climate.  There wasn’t a conspiracy, unlike what some may tell you – macro economics & politics is an animal of its own.  We can describe the 90s as ‘good weather’ after the storm.  

As anyone can see in the Southeast after a Hurricane passes, the weather is simply breathtaking.  That’s what happened in the 90s.  Not because of Bill Clinton.  If anything, you can blame Bill Clinton for taking this economic opportunity and creating many of the problems we have today, such as the Welfare state (entitlement programs), regulation of markets, government inefficiency, and an extension of Washington’s ‘pay for play’ game, which has turned a system of politics into something else all together.  It’s an unregulated power market.  Too bad there’s not an exchange, we can go short Clinton and hedge our risks.

To learn more about the way the world REALLY works, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – or checkout Fortress Capital Trading Academy, who offers a great Introductory course.  Forex = The reality of how the world works.

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Summarizing The Second Presidential Debate, For Dummies

Submitted by Tim Urban via WaitButWhy.com,

In case you missed it, I took the time to transcribe the entire second presidential debate. Here’s what happened:

Martha Raddatz: Hi I’m Martha.

Anderson Cooper: And I’m Anderson. And we’ll be your moderators tonight.

Martha: We’d like to remind all audience members that they’re props more than anything and should stay silent through the debate. The format of the debate will be a series of questions from members of the audience. We’ll start with a woman named Patrice Brock.

Audience Question: Thank you and good evening. The last presidential debate could have been rated as MA—mature audiences—per TV parental guidelines. Knowing that educators assign viewing the presidential debates as students’ homework, do you feel that you are modeling appropriate and positive behavior for today’s youth?

Clinton: I want to do all kinds of things. I want to do good things. There’s nothing we can’t do together, you and me Patrice. I want to work with people of all ethnicities. I want to heal the country. Make it a better place. For you and for me and the entire human race. And our children. And grandchildren.

Trump: This country’s going to shit. Healthcare costs are going up. We made Iran great again. We get killed on trade—an $800 billion deficit last year. We’re gonna make great trade deals. We’re gonna bring back law and order. Did you hear about those policemen that were shot today? We need justice. I want to fix the blacks in the cities. I want to fix the Latinos, Hispanics, etc. I want to make them great again. Make America great again.

Anderson Cooper: Neither of you remotely answered the question, whatsoever. You literally both ignored Patrice. Anyway, I also don’t care about Patrice. Let’s talk about the tapes. Donald, you talked about kissing women without consent. Grabbing them by the pussy. That’s really very much definitely sexual assault. You bragged about sexually assaulting women. This is a real thing that happened. It is a thing that’s real.

Trump: Wrong. I don’t think you understand what sexual assault is. Grabbing women by the pussy is locker room talk. Assaulting women is grabbing them by the pussy. I’m sorry I grabbed women by the pussy. I never did that. And how can you say that’s worse than ISIS? ISIS is beheading thousands of people. How can you compare me to ISIS? They drown people in steel cages. I’ve never done that once. How dare you Anderson. We’ll see tomorrow what the American people have to say about you saying that ISIS isn’t a big deal. What do you think our enemies are saying when they see what’s going on here. Yes, it was locker room talk. Yes, I hate it. I have advanced strategies for ISIS. I will defeat ISIS.

Anderson: Okay, but do you assault women?

Trump: Nobody has more respect for women than I do. Nobody. Not Mister Rogers. Not Susan B. Anthony. No one. Moving on a married woman is a sign of respect, something Mister Rogers and Susan B. Anthony never did. I’m what every parent hopes their daughter marries. All women respect me.

Anderson: But like literally—do you assault women?

Trump: Only with my respect. We’re gonna build a wall. We’re gonna have borders. People are pouring into our country from the Middle East to grab American women by the pussy. We’re gonna make America safe again. We’re gonna make America great again. We’re gonna make America safe again. We’re gonna make America wealthy again. China.

Anderson: Secretary Clinton, would you like to respond?

Clinton: Reagan. Bush. Eisenhower. Did they grab women by the arm? Yes. By the hand? Probably. Around the shoulder? Sure. But by the pussy? I don’t think so. Donald Trump is a bad man. He’s an everything-ist. He’s Matt Damon in School Ties. He’s the uncle in The Long Walk Home. He’s the mean slave owner in 12 Years a Slave. He’s the main German guy in Die Hard. He’s the woman in The Grudge. He’s Bluto. He’s Jafar. He’s the Joker. He’s a white walker. He’s a death eater. He’s a zombie. He’s a ghost. I, on the other hand, want to form one of those huge circles of different colored people that stretches all the way around the Earth where everyone’s holding hands. Can you paint with all the colors of the wind?

Trump: 30 years. 30 years this lady’s running the country and never once have I, nor has anyone else, been part of a circle of different colored people that stretches all the way around the Earth where everyone’s holding hands. 30 years of this fucking lady and never once did she paint anything with paint, let alone the colors of the wind.

Martha: Okay but back to your locker room assault. You’ve said that this campaign has changed you—that though being a clear predator in that video at the age of 59, you’ve now become good. Is that really true?

Trump: Martha—I don’t know how much clearer I can make this. I told detailed assault stories that included specific dates, names, and body parts. That’s just classic locker room talk. Every guy talks to other guys about detailed stories of his previous assaults that include specific dates, names, and body parts. You don’t know this because you’re not there—but whenever guys are alone, they talk about their previous assaults. That doesn’t mean they assaulted anyone, obviously. Unless they’re Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton is a bad fucking dude. Bill Clinton told me about when he held a Taco Bell employee down by the neck in the restaurant’s utilities closet and had intercourse with her. Bill Clinton told me about having a foursome with Chelsea’s three best friends while Chelsea was sleeping upstairs. Hillary missed it because she was busy laughing at a 12-year-old rape victim who by coincidence is sitting right over there.

Martha: Nicely done. Hillary?

Clinton: I’ll let Michelle Obama do the talking here. She said, “When someone talks about that time when your husband held a Taco Bell employee down by the neck in the restaurant’s utilities closet and had intercourse with her, you go high.” It works for Michelle, and it works for me. Also, you insulted a Muslim war hero’s parents and said a Latino judge was inherently biased and mocked a disabled reporter and said Obama was foreign.

Trump: The first three, sure. But you’re the one who said Obama was foreign. Also, Michelle Obama has openly said you’re the worst ever. Also, you cheated to beat Bernie Sanders. Also, you deleted 33,000 emails you sneaky fuck. And when I’m Führer, I’m hiring a special prosecutor to come after you.

Clinton: He’s lying about everything, it’s all on my website, and let’s just be happy that this loose cannon isn’t in charge of the law in this country.

Trump: Because you’d be in jail.

Audience: Oh dayome!

Anderson: We’d like to remind the audience to stop being a piece of shit.

Martha: But really, Hillary—what’s up with the emails you sneaky fuck.

Clinton: It was a mistake. I wrote 33,000 emails about Chelsea’s wedding and a yoga class, and I shouldn’t have deleted them. Now let’s get to the questions from the audience.

Trump: Of course—anything to divert from this question, you crooked shrew.

Clinton: Anything to divert from your campaign, you incompressible jizztrumpet.

Anderson: That’s enough. Now let’s resume this town hall farce with our second audience question.

Trump: Typical.

Anderson: Huh?

Trump: You never ask Hillary about her emails. You never spend time with me. You don’t care about me. This is one on three.

Anderson: No it’s not. Just a little. Next question.

Audience Question: Obamacare made things more expensive, not less. How will you bring healthcare costs down?

Trump: Well—

Anderson: No Hillary’s supposed to go first here.

Clinton: No it’s fine I’d rather go second.

Trump: No it’s fine you go first.

Clinton: No you.

Trump: No you.

Clinton: No you.

Trump: No you.

Clinton: No you.

Trump: No you.

Clinton: Obamacare is good.

Trump: Obamacare is a disaster.

Anderson: Hillary, your husband Bill also said Obamacare is a disaster.

Clinton: No he didn’t.

Trump: Bernie Sanders says Hillary has bad judgment.

Anderson: Let’s move on. Audience question.

Audience Question: I’m a Muslim. How can you help me not be hatecrimed?

Trump: Being hatecrimed is a shame. But we have a problem. Which is that you’re not telling us when the other Muslims are gonna kill us. In San Bernardino, there were Muslims that killed us and you didn’t tell us about them. If you had told us about them, we could have stopped it. I don’t think you ever told us about Orlando either, or 9/11 for that matter. I know that because if you had told us about 9/11, I’m pretty sure you’d be famous, and famous people don’t go to town hall meetings.

Clinton: You are Muslim. I am Muslim. Captain Khan, who died serving this country and who Donald hates, was Muslim.

Martha: Hey Donald, remember your Muslim ban? Let’s discuss.

Trump: I love Captain Khan. I have his name tattooed on my lower back. An American hero. Who Hillary killed by starting the Iraq War, another thing I hate.

Martha: Fuckin—dude—no. Answer the question.

Trump: Who made you so mean? Was it your parents? And who made you so simultaneously nice to Hillary? Also your parents?

Martha: Does the Muslim ban still hold?

Trump: Hillary wants to merge the US with Syria into one nation. She wants to increase the number of refugees from 10,000 to 65,000.

Martha: What the fuck Hillary?

Clinton: That picture of the dead four-year-old boy on the beach with the little sneakers.

Martha: Totes.

Clinton: Also, Donald literally wants to ban an entire major religion from entering the US. Can we just all reflect on that for a second? And also, he started the Iraq War, not me.

Trump: I was against the war in Iraq.

Clinton: No you weren’t.

Trump: Yes I was.

Clinton: No you weren’t.

Trump: Yes I was.

Clinton: No you weren’t.

Trump: Yes I was. Bernie Sanders says Hillary Clinton has bad judgment.

Martha: Okay new question. Hillary, you said in a secret speech that politicians need both a public and private position on certain issues. Is it okay for politicians to be two-faced?

Clinton: That was Abraham Lincoln, not me. More importantly, Trump is obsessed with Putin.

Trump: I’m not obsessed with Putin. I paid taxes. I took deductions. Hillary’s friends took deductions. Hillary is friends with rich people.

Anderson: The fuck? Okay well now that we’re here:

Audience Question: How will you ensure that wealthy Americans pay their fair share of taxes?

Trump: Well the first thing I’d do is (by the way one of the first provisions is (by the way you know I give up a lot when I run cause I change the tax code (by the way you know she could have done this years ago but she didn’t because her rich friends don’t want her to (30 fucking years, folks—30 years with this lady and nothing changes—nothing ever will change)))) get rid of carried interest. I’m also lowering taxes on the wealthy, and by the way Hillary is raising your taxes, which is a disaster. There’s no growth in this country. This country’s going to shit. China’s killing us.

Clinton: Literally all lies from this douche again. He will cut taxes for the super rich and raise them for the middle class.

Trump: Yeah she’ll close corporate loopholes—as long as they’re ones her rich friends don’t use. Also, Bernie Sanders says she has bad judgment. 30 fucking years, folks, with this lady. 30—

Clinton: 30 years my dick, Donald. I’ve done 400 legislation things in 30 years.

Trump: Nah.

Martha: New question. Aleppo’s in the shit. Thoughts?

Clinton: We need to stand up to Russia and Assad and save Aleppo.

Trump: And save who in Aleppo, the rebels? They’re worse than Assad. We need to fight ISIS.

Martha: But Mr. Trump, your running mate agrees with Hillary. He even wants to use military force to stand up to Russia and Assad.

Trump: Well he’s dumb. We need to be fighting ISIS. I know more about ISIS than the generals.

Clinton: Fucking no you don’t.

Anderson: Audience question.

Audience Question: Do you believe you can be a devoted president to all the people in the US? 

Trump: I want to help all Americans. The black Americans. The Latino Americanos personas. The Indian chiefs. Our cities are a disaster. Our education is a disaster. Poverty is a disaster. Natural disasters are a disaster. She said basket of deplorables.

Clinton: I want to help all Americans—the deplorables and the non-deplorables. I talked to an Ethopian kid who was scared of Trump.

Anderson: But what’s up with the deplorables thing?

Clinton: I only meant that truthfully, not publicly.

Trump: She has tremendous hate in her heart. The hate in her heart is a disaster.

Anderson: So Donald, remember when you kind of woke up in the middle of the night the other night and went on a 3am tirade attacking that random woman and telling people to watch her sex tape? What was…what was the deal with that?

Trump: That slut.

Anderson: Let’s move on to the next question, from a man named Kenneth Bone.

Audience Question: I’m Kenneth Bone. I’m Kenneth Bone and I’m wearing this sweater. And this is my mustache.

Anderson: Is that…is that it?

Ken Bone: What’s your plan with energy policy?

Trump: Coal. Coal is the way of the future. China is KILLING us. China is dumping steel on us.

Clinton: China is dumping steel on your shitty face. You buy a ton of Chinese steel. Climate change is a thing. Coal is a thing. Things are things.

Martha: Okay last question, thank fucking god.

Audience Question: It sounds kind of fun and hilarious to make you two say something nice about each other. Go.

Clinton: His kids aren’t terrible people. Somehow.

Trump: The bitch can fight.

Anderson: I’d like to extend my thanks and apologies to the 790 million people who watched this. Goodnight.

via http://ift.tt/2dOAQkN Tyler Durden