Maduro Puts Military In Charge Of Venezuela’s Food

Every time we believe Venezuela has hit rock bottom, president Nicolas Maduro finds a way to surprise us. In the latest installment of Venezuela’s social collapse, we find that the president of the socialist utopia has put the armed forces in charge of a new food supply system aimed at alleviating crippling shortages, in the process ceding even more power to a military apparatus that is already involved in everything from banking to imports. According to some interpretations, this is merely the latest step in the military’s takeover of a government that has now lost virtually all support as well as authority to govern.

As WSJ reports, the head of the armed forces, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino – who now becomes one of the most powerful people in the socialist government – will be in charge of transporting and distributing basic products, controlling prices and stimulating production, according to a decree published Tuesday in the official gazette.  “All the ministries, all the ministers, all the state institutions are at the service and in absolute subordination” to Padrino’s so-called Great Sovereign Supply Mission, Maduro said in a televised address Monday night.


Venezuelan Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino.

The appointment comes at a time of unprecedented crisis for Venezuela, where a full-blown food crisis has emerged over the past few months. Entire days are now spent outside stores waiting to buy a handful of basic items, with protests and looting rising sharply. Hoarding and flipping scarce goods have become a growth industry. Those who buy and resell, known as bachaqueros, are among the few succeeding in this economy.


Venezuelans carrying groceries cross the Simón Bolívar bridge from Colombia

As a result, the armed forces have swiftly repressed all opposition rallies as well as the food riots that flare up daily across the country. 

As Bloomberg adds, in an attempt to regain control, President Nicolas Maduro has tapped loyal neighborhood groups, called CLAPs, and put them in charge of distributing as much as 70 percent of the nation’s food. The committees, whose meetings start with socialist anthems, are told they must wrest control of the food market from those reselling it illegally.

“There is an economic war being waged,” said Janette Carillo, 45, a local CLAP member who helped oversee the Catia food delivery. “Our job is to break the arm of the bachaquero,” she said. After taking on global powerhouses like Exxon Mobil and PepsiCo., the government is now targeting bachaqueros — frantic, ordinary people who have abandoned jobs to wait in line all night in order to get by. The notion that they are part of a capitalist assault on Venezuela is hard to square with the facts. Meanwhile, opposition leaders contend that the food trucks exclude their followers.

“This is now a completely militarized government,” said Luis Manuel Esculpi, a security analyst in Caracas and former head of the armed forces commission in the congress. “The army is Maduro’s only source of authority.”

To be sure, since coming to power three years ago, Maduro has relied increasingly on the armed forces as a spiraling economic crisis pushed his approval ratings to record lows and food shortages led to lootings. Generals are already in charge of state companies importing the bulk of Venezuela’s food; they run the country’s largest bank, a television station and a state mining company.

Some see through the latest news as a de facto takeover by the local military, one which allows Maduro to quietly exit the scene of the crime and leave the local army to handle the upcoming revolution.

“Maduro is giving the keys to Miraflores [presidential palace] over to a military leader who is unable to confront the economic crisis,” said opposition deputy Julio Borges. “What this means is more roadblocks, more corruption and less production.”

The problem for the military is that by fully aligning themselves with the Maduro regime, they will also lose the people’s trust, making violent conflict virtually inevitable.

A former high-ranking general said the new measures would end up discrediting the armed forces, “because now they’ll be responsible for sustaining a model that has no viability.” He said the move would also open more doors for corruption in a country the watchdog group Transparency International considers among the world’s more corrupt.

Meanwhile, the Maduro regime continues to hand over increasingly bigger chunks of the local economy to the army, most recently confiscating the plant of Kimberly-Clark which announced over the weekend that it was abandoning its local operations.

“If all the factories now have to run everything by the military, this isn’t going to make raw materials appear all of the sudden,” said Juan Pablo Olalquiaga, president of Venezuela’s industrial chamber, Conindustria. “The president is showing he does not understand how to manage the economy.”

Ultimately, Venezuela’s real food shortage problem is less due to distribution, no matter if tasked to the military or private sector, it is the supply. The government plans to halve imports to make good on billions of dollars of bonds maturing later this year.

What is most surprising, however, is that Venezuela continues to sacrifice the well-being of its people to placate its creditors: for some inexplicable reason, the completely insolvent country, which recently may have seen much of its gold confiscated by Citigroup, refuses to default and instead allocate its dwindling reserves to providing the bare necessities for the population. But then we are reminded of an article we wrote in December 2014:

And suddenly everything becomes clear.

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Some Stocks Fall: Mainstream Media Proclaims “Flat Is Kind Of A Win!”

Some stocks did not rise today… but do not worry – one clever CNBC chap noted "flat is kind of a win!" – nevertheless, panic began to sweep the mainstream media as a new record high was not achieved in some indices…

 

Another day, another record high for stocks with a pre-open ramp…

 

but that was the best of it… although the panic bid resumed after Europe closed…

 

In cash, Trannies which went vertical as CSX earning sleaked before the bell)

 

But stocks remain the post-payrolls winner…

 

Notably The Dow stuck around its previous record high again 18,351 intraday…

 

Another new high in July, which FBN Securities technical analyst JC O’Hara notes could be a problem…

Since 1950, 27 years posted a new 52-week high in July; avg. 3-month pattern suggests “new high momentum fizzled” into sideways trading, with median pullback 7.5%, avg. decline nearly 12.5%..

 

After a July high, stocks bottom in late October.

 

"Chasing the market is not the best option" especially amid "plethora of severely overbought breadth indicators."

And today, bonds notably decoupled from stocks once again…

 

Having decoupled for a few days, VIX dipped today to a 12 handle – smells a lot like managers unwinding hedged positions (i.e. covering hedge and reducing underlying exposure)…

 

Treasury yields tumbled 2-5bps (long-end outperforming) as yesterday's CNBC call for the start of the Great Rotation is dashed…

 

The USD Index ended very modestly lower but basically flat on the week as the chaos in GBP and JPY swung the other way today (GBP weakness on May and cabinet apointments and JPY strength on Heli money denials) biggest drop in Cable in 7 days…

 

Silver and Gold gained on the day, as did Copper extending its post-payrolls gains to 6%!! but crude tumbled…

 

Biggest 3-day surge in Copper in over 4 months…

 

Dramtically bigger than expected Distillates build and production rise sent oil sliding today back to 9 week lows (below $45)

 

As the 2015 analog looks increasingly spooky…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Will The Bank Of England Become The 55th Central Bank To Cut Rates Since 2014?

Malayisa's surprise rate-cut overnight made it the 54th central bank to ease policy since the beginning of last year. Will Carney make The Bank of England the 55th tomorrow?

 

As Reuters reports, interest rates have never been lower, monetary policy has never been looser.

A total of 54 central banks around the world have eased policy since the beginning of 2015 to boost growth, ward off deflation, or both.

Below is a list of all 54 and the steps they have taken, starting with the most recent move.

click image for detailed interactive version…

 

Expectations are certainly biased towards The Bank of England cutting rates, but as Bloomberg reports, the views of his eight colleagues on the BOE’s rate-setting panel are less clear.

Chief Economist Andy Haldane and policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe may be minded to vote for a cut, having indicated a willingness in the past.

 

Others may prefer to wait for more data. The Office for National Statistics says the impact of Brexit won’t be visible in hard economic figures until mid-August. Even so, a gauge of consumer confidence dropping at the fastest pace in 21 years, the pound sinking to the weakest against the dollar since 1985 and the freezing of multiple property funds may provide sufficient evidence that action is necessary.

 

“That the governor has already signaled the BOE will ease soon tells us that the BOE’s strategy is to act in anticipation of the forthcoming weakness rather than being data dependent,” said Kallum Pickering, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “This suggests the BOE will probably move sooner rather than later.”

 

 

“I can’t think of a speech where we’ve had a clearer policy signal from him,” said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “He has created a clear expectation in the market that they will deliver something this week.”

"priced in" – Investors are pricing in an 80 percent chance of a rate cut this week, up from 11 percent just before vote counts showed the “Leave” campaign had won the referendum. A significant spike in those bets came after Carney’s speech on June 30, where he said it was “plausible that uncertainty could remain elevated for some time” and that “some monetary-policy easing will likely be needed over the summer.”

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Talk Of Oil “Death Spiral” Emerges

One week ago, we looked at an epic build up of gasoline inventories on the East Coast, also known as PADD1, which had slammed the crack spread to record lows for this time of the year, and asked if "This What Finally Drags Crude Oil Lower." We were referring to the collapsing Crack Spreads, which show that something disturbing is taking place for US refingers who are no longer able to "internalize" the massive crude glut. 

U.S. gasoline crack spread a proxy for refiner margins, has dropped 34 percent in two weeks. On Wednesday, it hit a five-year low for this time of year below $13 a barrel. That is less than half the crack spread of $28 a barrel at this time last year.

 

As of today, the WTI crack spread was $13.1, largely unchanged from a week ago.

We then quoted Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group in Darien, who summarized it best by saying that “PADD 1 is a holy mess. It is very unusual. If a market becomes extremely oversupplied, like PADD 1, they are going to have to cut runs.” That is another way of saying refiners will have to stay shut, which in turn will force crude to  build up in various on and offshore storage locations.

Our summary of the strange events taking place in the US refining industry:

with the inventory bottlenecking having reached all the way to the gasoline level, in lieu of refiner buying, crude producers will be forced to start selling oil and dumping prices just to get marginal demand as both onshore and offshore storage is near capacity. Most likely this will happen in the next few weeks, when coupled with the near full Chinese SPR, the slump in Chinese oil demand, the elimination in Nigerian supply overhangs, the resumption of Libyan exports, it will send the price of oil tumbling, and incidentally replaying the summer of 2015 when crude crashed…

 

 

One week later, and with gasoline and distillate inventory builds continuing to rise precariously, it appears that this sentiment is starting to permeate the analyst community.  This is how WSJ's Market Talk blog describes what is going on:

Inventories of gasoline and other refined products in the US rose strongly last week, weighing on prices today. It's the result of months of cheap crude prompting refiners to buy more crude and run at higher rates to turn it into products. Lipow Oil Associates sees the start of a "death spiral" as "product inventories are high, margins come under pressure, refiners reduce crude runs and therefore the crude-oil glut grows to the point where someone wants to discount" to unload it–inspiring refiners "to kick up their runs again." .

End result: today WTI closed the NYMEX session at its lowest level since May 10. It may be only the beginning.

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Humpday Humor: Earnings Expectations Edition

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me for the sixth year in a row – I must be a bloody idiot!!

 

h/t @Stalingrad_Poor

 

And it is that ‘idiocy’ that makes the following chart somehow acceptable to investors…


Bonus Humor… US GDP growth expectations seasonal tendency to be revised dramatically lower…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Boris Johnson Appointed British Foreign Secretary

While today’s resignation of David Cameron and immediate appointment of Teresa May as his replacement was fully expected, moments ago May’s cabinet served up her first major surprise when it was revealed that the man who led the Brexit campaign, Boris Johnson, and who many assumed would not hold a key role in the new UK cabinet, was just appointed to replace Philip Hammond in what may be the most prominent and important role as the UK prepares to negotiate its exit from the EU: that of foreign secretary.

 

While those voting Leave may be delighted, the pound isn’t and moments after the announcement, sterling set a new intraday low at 1.3155.

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Something “Unexpected” Emerges In The Blendon Township Police Activity Log

Yesterday when we reported that daily average usage “Pokemon Go” has hit a stunning 43 minutes, nearly as much as Americans dedicate every day to Facebook, we were stunned. We also wondered what it would do to already collapsing US productivity.

Today, we get a surprising response because while overall US productivity will clearly be in even greater freefall – if only until the Pokemon fad passes as it certainly will – one place where worker engagement is about to soar, are local police departments.

The following “unexpected”, because really quite expected, disclosures were been posted in the police activity log of Blendon Township, Ohio. It is safe to extrapolate that same is taking place in police departments across the nation, who now not only have to be concerned about the recent surge in minority violence, but have a new “nemesis” – an invasion of Pokemon’ed zombies.

h/t @oddvestor

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French Intel Chief’s Stunning Warning: Europe Is “On Brink Of Civil War” Due To Migrant Sex Attacks

In a shockingly non-politically-correct outburst, Patrick Calvar, chief of the Directorate General of Internal Security, told members of the French parliamentary commission that thanks to the increasing frequency of sexual assaults by islamic migrants, "Extremism is growing everywhere… We are on the brink of civil war." 

As The Express reports, Calver said he feared an inevitable confrontation between the far right and Muslims poses more of a threat than terrorism.

He said that the situation in France is on such a knife edge that it could just take one more major Islamist terror attack to lead to a huge right-wing backlash.

 

Speaking to the leading French newspaper, Le Figaro, Mr Calvar said: "This confrontation I think it will take place.

 

"Even another one or two attacks and it will happen. It therefore behooves us to anticipate and block all these groups."

 

"There will be a confrontation between the far right and the Muslim world."

 

At one point, Mr Calvar said: "Europe is in great danger, extremism is growing everywhere."

The fears are that the country could suffer an attack similar to the one that happened in Germany on New Year's Eve where a staggering 1,200 women were sexually abused in German cities, particularly in Cologne. Many of the suspect perpetrators were migrants of North African origin.

Finally, it is not just the French who are hitting the panic button:

Mr Calvar's comments have come as the former MI6 boss Richard Dearlove also said that Europe faced a "populist uprising" if Governments do not take control of the migrant crisis.

And security experts in Germany have also warned Chancellor Angela Merkel that the middle class was becoming increasingly radicalised because of her open borders migrant policy.

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Former DOJ Prosecutor Sues Obama, Black Lives Matter And Eric Holder For Inciting Race War

In a lawsuit filed in Texas, Larry Klayman – a former prosecutor for the U.S. Department of Justice and founder of the conservative watchdog organizations Judicial Watch and Freedom Watch – has accused President Obama, Black Lives Matter founders and former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder among others, of fueling a race war that led to the murder of police in Dallas last week. The lawsuit seeks “to redress the incitement, threats and killings provoked by the defendants.

In his lawsuit, Klayman also named Al Sharpton and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in the suit. The lawsuit, filed Saturday in Dallas, alleges that the defendants are guilty of civil rights violations, terrorist promotion of gang activity, and aiding and abetting murder.

The defendants are accused of  “inciting the imminent serious bodily injury and killing of police officers and other law enforcement persons of all races and ethnicities, Jews, and Caucasians by convincing their supporters and others that there is a civil war between blacks and law enforcement, thereby calling for immediate violence and severe bodily injury or death in response to that non-existent and fictitious threat.”

Klayman had this to say upon the filing of this class action complaint:

“It’s time that law enforcement, such as the plaintiffs in this case, including myself, come forward by peacefully attempting to use the legal system to redress the incitement, threats and killings provoked by the defendants in this class action case. I am hopeful that I will be joined by other law enforcement to join in the suit. For too long, law enforcement and others, including white and non-white Jews and Christians, have remained silent, scared to speak and act, for fear of being branded racists over the fear of being threatened and harmed by the defendants and their accomplices. This must stop and justice must be done to preserve the integrity of our great nation and to avoid an all out race war that will destroy the freedom that our Founding Fathers dedicated their sacred honor, their fortunes and risked their lives for.”

The case seeks damages of more than $2 billion.

For more information or an interview, contact leklayman@yahoo.com and see http://ift.tt/SVQkkE or call 561-558-5336.

The full lawsuit is below (link): 

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