People Are Devolving Into Degeneracy and Violence – Don’t Join the Club

The wayfarer,
Perceiving the pathway to truth,
Was struck with astonishment.
It was thickly grown with weeds.
“Ha,” he said,
“I see that none has passed here
In a long time.”
Later he saw that each weed
Was a singular knife.
“Well,” he mumbled at last,
“Doubtless there are other roads.”

– Stephen Crane, The Wayfarer

When times get tough people can unite and fight back against a common enemy, or they can be manipulated into fighting each other. Unfortunately, the latter has become increasingly popular amongst all sides in what has become an increasingly deranged, adolescent and counterproductive political environment.

Meanwhile, the people who are truly powerful, the oligarchs of industry and their bought and paid for political minions are the ones who really benefit. The primary purpose of this website from the very beginning has been to highlight how power actually functions in imperial America with the hope that people across the political spectrum could unite and push back against the unaccountable rent-seeking practices of a common enemy. It seems I was extraordinarily naive.

When a writer and thinker such as myself is forced to admit failure, it’s a very tough pill to swallow. Writing this blog is in many ways a thankless task. I’m essentially doing volunteer work day in and day out because I passionately believe in the ideas I put forth, and to see them have little to no effect on the public debate can be very depressing. Rather than seeing human beings unite to throw off the predatory shackles that bind them as I had hoped, I see people who should be coming together punching and yelling at each other in the streets — and that’s on a good day. On bad days, people are getting shot or run over, from Virginia to London. Watching all this madness unfold while the truly powerful sit back and grin, more secure in their positions as ever before thanks to rabble fighting each other, sometimes makes me want to just stop doing this writing thing. After all, what’s the point?

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Saudis Foil Iranian Terror Attack On Major Offshore Oilfield

The situation in the Middle East is furiously escalating with each passing day.

While today’s news of Israeli financial support for Syrian insurgents came out of left field, our earlier assessment following the report of “turmoiling” Syrian rebels in the aftermath of the Qatar crisis still stands, namely that “the next major regional conflict appears set to be between Saudi Arabia and Iran. All it needs is a catalyst.”

That catalyst nearly presented itself overnight, when the Saudi information ministry said the Saudi Royal Navy foiled an attempted terrorist attack on a major offshore oilfield in the Arabian Gulf on June 16, when it captured three members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps from a boat as it approached the kingdom’s offshore Marjan oilfield. The Saudi Center for International Communications added that the boat carried explosives, and the Iranians aboard “intended to carry out terrorist act in Saudi territorial waters.”

 

Quoting an “official source”, the Saudi SPA news agency said that just after midnight on June 16, 2017, three boats bearing flags in white and red flags rushed to the Marjan offshore oil field off the Eastern Province. The navy fired warning shots but were these were ignored by the assault boats. It said one of the boats was subsequently seized and found to be “carrying weapons for a sabotage target.” The other two boats escaped.

“This was one of three vessels which were intercepted by Saudi forces. It was captured with the three men on board, the other two escaped,” a statement from the ministry’s center for international communications said.

“The three captured members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are now being questioned by Saudi authorities,” it said, citing a Saudi official. The vessel was carrying explosives and intended to conduct a “terrorist act” in Saudi territorial waters, it said.

According to Reuters, on Saturday Iran’s Tasnim news agency said that Saudi border guards had opened fire on an Iranian fishing boat in the Gulf on Friday, killing a fisherman. It said the boat was one of two Iranian boats fishing in the Gulf that had been pushed off course by waves.

The alleged attempt to carry out a terrorist attack on Saudi oil facilities takes place as tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have steadily deteriorated, and follow a pari of suicide bombings and shootings in Tehran killed which killed 17 people in Tehran in the first week of June. Iran repeated accusations that Saudi Arabia funds Sunni Islamist militants, including Islamic State.

It the Saudi account of events is accurate, and if Iran is indeed preparing to take out Saudi oil infrastructure in retaliation or otherwise, the simmering cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is about to get very hot.

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Are Russia And The Saudis Planning A Natural Gas Cartel?

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,

The fledgling production cut strategy of OPEC (Saudi Arabia) and non-OPEC (Russia and the FSU) shows that a new strategy is needed to counter the ongoing doubts in the markets.

At the same time, Russia and Saudi continue to give indications of a possible OPEC 2.0 scenario, in which a possible Russian membership is on the table. This would confront the market with a renewed and stronger oil cartel, although the overall strategies need to be adjusted. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, via its oil giant Aramco has openly stated to be interested in global gas investment opportunities, starting in Russia’s Siberian region. While the media still looks at the current discussions as a pure crude oil cooperation strategy, some see another development on the horizon. The real power of OPEC, non-OPEC cooperation would increase if they would not only include a crude oil production cut, but also integrate the other (hidden) cartel, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). An OPEC 2.1, including gas exporters, would really block any negative developments in the market, even shale oil and gas.

At present, international analysts and media sources are hyping the story about Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion dollar investments in Russia’s oil and gas sectors. Statements made by Saudi minister of petroleum Khalid Al Falih are only making headlines at present if he indicates that oil giant Aramco will be targeting natural gas projects and even LNG in future.

Certain analysts think that Aramco is taking the same road as Shell, BP and other oil majors, have taken, diversifying away from oil and into gas. The ‘Golden Age of Gas’, as reported by the IEA has not yet become reality. Riyadh now seems interested in becoming a convert of the gas era, but reality is not as simple. There is more between the lines than currently is being discussed in the media.

First of all, Saudi Aramco has always been heavily involved in the gas sector, as it is already a very large gas producer. Recent figures show that Saudi Arabia’s total proved natural gas reserves are set to be around 8500 bcm, which means it holds the sixth most proved natural gas reserves globally and the third most in the Middle East. In 2014, Aramco produced around 102.4 bcm of natural gas, which made them the eighth largest natural gas producer in the world. Additionally, it marked the fifth consecutive year of increasing natural gas production in Saudi Arabia, illustrating that Saudi Arabia has emphasized growing their domestic production in order to continue to meet their energy demand. The Kingdom also is not only a huge producer of natural gas, its local consumption is also impressive. The kingdom consumed 108.2 bcm in 2014, making it the 5th largest consumer worldwide. In 2014, natural gas made up ~40.7 percent of Saudi Arabia’s primary energy consumption.

The country’s natural gas consumption has continued to grow as has natural gas’s role in Saudi Arabia’s current energy mix. In 2014, natural gas made up ~40.7 percent of Saudi Arabia’s primary energy consumption. For the next years this will increase substantially.

Currently, Saudi Arabia does not import or export natural gas and therefore they have not established themselves as a global natural gas supplier even though they produce significant amounts of it. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has been able to achieve important security of supply due to the fact that they only rely on themselves for their natural gas needs. However, this also means that Saudi Arabia will have to continue to produce at high levels going forward to meet their domestic demand. To counter growing demand for natural gas, Aramco is even pursuing shale gas in the future, with first production expected around 2020-2021.

A rapid development of reserves is necessary, as not only will the Kingdom need more gas to compensate for its current crude oil usage, which is a direct financial pressure on the budget, but current diversification plans also imply increased natural gas consumption in the petchem industry. Next to this, increased gas production is crucial for power generation and water desalination in the near future. Technically, gas production is also of importance to support crude oil production, partly via gas reinjection projects on ageing oil fields. The above painted situation was part of the E&P strategy of Aramco, when it took in several IOCs (Shell) and independents to search for new gas reserves, especially in the Rub Al Khali (Empty Quarter). The latter until now has been rather disappointing, and most international parties have left.

The present and future gas cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia should be assessed in this light. Aramco’s internationalization strategy includes investments and operations in Russia or FSU republics the coming years. These actions are part of a diversification drive in Aramco, but should not be looked at with only attention for the Russian opportunities. Taking into account the current Saudi situation, Aramco has been looking for access to technology, R&D and cooperation since decades with the usual suspects. Gazprom, Lukoil and Rosneft were not included at that time in the inner circle, as the geopolitical situation and the clash between communism and Wahhabism prevented an opening. This has changed, and both sides are now showing an increased willingness to cooperate in both their territories, Russia but also Saudi Arabia. The Saudi offer to invest in Russia will have very strong strings attached. Investing in Russian oil and gas operations, including LNG, will be linked to receiving an in depth insight and access to Russian gas technology and R&D. Aramco will without any doubt have direct research links and investments with Gazprom VNIIGAZ (Scientific-Research Institute of Natural Gases and Gas Technologies) — with its research operations in Saratov, next to the Volga River could substantially support “In Kingdom” gas operations and production projects in the future.

The bottom line at present for Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical and economic power drive is an increased economic diversification effort at home. All instruments, including the multibillion investments by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF, which will include Saudi Aramco IPO revenues in 2018, in the RIDF (Russian Direct Investment Fund) should be seen in that light. The meetings between Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman or Saudi minister of petroleum Khalid Al Falih with Russian president Putin and his cohorts are linked to the internal drive of the Kingdom.

This cooperation could also be driven by another issue. In addition to the historic cooperation between the two oil producers, as shown in the OPEC non-OPEC production cut agreements the last years, both have been discussing since years also a global gas cooperation. Even that the oil price plunge has pushed both former adversaries to cooperate, an expansion to gas could even be strategically very interesting. For Russia, a combined market approach of OPEC and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), labelled sometimes as the gas cartel, would increase its global power. The same is the case for Saudi Arabia, as the OPEC leader, holding vast reserves of natural and associated gas, understands that a combined OPEC-GECF strategy could have several main strategic advantages.

Not only would this create a power bloc that could have a much higher impact on the U.S. shale revolution, blocking part of the global market if necessary, but also it would increase pressure on Saudi’s main rival at present Qatar, the world’s leading LNG exporter. By cooperating with Russia, Saudi Arabia could kill two birds with one stone. Riyadh’s strategy with OPEC – Russia could be solidified, while at the same time it holds power over the world’s gas sector. Moscow’s support for Riyadh’s plans will not only benefit the Kingdom’s natural gas development, but also corner Qatar fully. A combined Russian-Saudi power play in global gas could change it dramatically. Putin and MBS could be looking for a kill.

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Why the Government Fails at Welfare

Via The Daily Bell

The leviathan created by the modern welfare state is one of the gravest threats facing the American republican system. Dangers levied by the continued use of the government’s dole come both fiscally and socially. Fixes being floated from Congress to community organizations still lack a cohesive focus on reform in the mainstream public discourse.

The federal welfare apparatus has bloomed into a disastrous menagerie of nearly one hundred programs. Representative Warren Davidson (OH8-R) has introduced legislation that will consolidate 92 of the programs in an attempt to minimize waste and redundancy.  Davidson isn’t alone in his calls for welfare reform.  Other members of the House Freedom Caucus are publicly demanding that welfare reform be tied into the promised Trump tax reform package.

Even if House conservatives get their way, it’s not clear if the welfare model is sustainable. Stacked up against other industrialized countries, the U.S. clearly gets the worst bang for its buck.  In part, the reason for the failings comes from flawed designs for the American social safety net.

Governments on both sides of the Atlantic seem to be settled on the model of government intervention supporting those in need, but several Pacific Rim countries offer a different model based on social responsibility.

Pacific Rim Models

The tiny nation of Singapore has dazzled economists and pundits since it gained its independence from Great Britain. By embracing free market principles Singapore has raised its per capita income from $500 to over $52,000 in the short time it has been free of colonial shackles.

Even more exciting is the attitude the government takes on social welfare programming.  Since its inception, the state has taken a hard stance on handouts.  The government’s longtime approach has been underpinned by the idea that universal benefits are “wasteful and inequitable” and has chosen to base their safety net on social pressures. Singapore’s philosophy on welfare follows

Singapore’s philosophy on welfare follows three basic principles: each generation should pay its own way, each family should pay its own way, and each individual should pay his or her own way.   These aren’t just guidelines.  The legislators codified the importance of family reliance by enabling seniors to file litigation against their children if they refuse to support them.

In addition to heavy social pressures, the state also requires compulsory savings for retirement, housing, and other items deemed social necessities.  By requiring employers and employees to designate money for individual “rainy day funds” the government ensures that citizens have money when in need while simultaneously avoiding onerous taxes and bureaucracy that accompany the American and European models.  

Other Pacific Rim countries have also dabbled in alternative forms of social welfare.  Chile once instituted a meritocratic point based system which enabled those in lower income brackets to advance through subsidies offered by the state and was able toproduce better results than those in Europe and America.

Japan also has a history of creating social pressures to ensure the elderly and those in need are taken care of without government intervention.  Hong Kong, another of the Pacific’s shining societies has its own take on welfare in which increased productivity from workers equals increased benefits.

While those in Congress struggle to find the solution to America’s welfare woes it is important that they look not across the Atlantic to the failing welfare states of Europe for policy, but rather to the east and take note of the alternatives offered by market-based models.

States Rights

Instead of waiting on the national government to create a solution to one of America’s most pressing problems several states have taken the initiative and attempted to create a sustainable welfare model. By embracing the federalist model and utilizing the states as laboratories of democracy lawmakers can see what works and what doesn’t in real time. Already some states have produced promising results.

Legislators in Maine took a bold step in implementing conservative style welfare reform. Initiated by a Republican governor, Paul LePage, the reforms sought to address the growing number of welfare recipients in the state and the massive budgetary mess that came along with it. In Maine, able-bodied adults are required to work, train, or volunteer at least on a part-time basis to receive any government benefits.

The plan drew steep criticism from both the Obama administration and liberal media outlets as both claimed that the measure unfairly targeted the poor in a budget reducing measure and would create more harm to those in need. The results of Maine’s experiment, however, have proven quite the opposite. 

Maine has lowered its unemployment rate and has 10 times fewer residents on welfare. Even more exciting for Mainers, those who came off of welfare saw their incomes rise by an average of 114 percent. Proving that Maine’s results are not just a fluke, Kansas has implemented a similar program and has likewise alleviated a great deal of the state’s poverty.

Policy think tanks across the country have analyzed the finding of Maine’s experiment and have called on their state governments to follow suit. Some even heralded the program as a model for the nation. The problem facing many action oriented states come from restrictions put in place by the federal system. While the Republican lead welfare reform of the 90s did a great deal to push welfare to the state level, it also left a great deal to be desired.

To function as independent bodies, as the federal system intends, and better serve their most vulnerable citizens’ states ought to have greater freedom to experiment with welfare reforms.  Congress could act to give states a greater say in how welfare is implemented within their borders if reform is to be both helpful to those in need and sustainable.

Market-Charity

The government has a long history of implementing duplicative, ineffective policies and leaving communities to pick up the pieces. From the feds creating the modern ObamaCare healthcare debacle to city government literally stealing donations meant for children, every time the state attempts to intervene to solve a societal ailment it just makes it worse. Welfare is no different. Luckily for Americans, the government doesn’t control their fate, they do.

When looking to alleviate the suffering of their fellow citizens, Americans need only look inwards. American citizens are already the most charitable citizenry in the world, and keep giving more money every year. Moreover, private charity organizations, by and large, run much more efficiently and with substantially lower overhead.

Private groups are providing money, resources, and life-changing services better than the government is. Tired of seeing their impoverished neighbors get tossed around by the welfare system one group started an organization to successfully transition people off government support and into self-sufficiency. The core idea of such missions is to have neighbors helping their community members rise to their full potential and become productive by their own means. Of course, neighbors helping neighbors only works if there are opportunities available to them.

No government intervention or individual generosity can finally end poverty. The only force powerful enough to lift people out of the clutches of poverty is free market capitalism. Many who advocate for expanding the welfare state in its traditional form fail to realize the positive power markets can play in reducing poverty.

The wealthiest societies are not those which provide their citizens with cradle to grave care; it’s actually the complete opposite! The freer the society the easier it is for individuals to act and create wealth which in turn raises the standard of living. If allowed to thrive, market forces will create the greatest outcome to workers, companies, and those in need.

If the government is serious about helping the disadvantaged it should stop with the various welfare schemes, which inevitably fail, and get out of the way of the real engines of wealth creation. Neither the federal government nor any local authorities have the means to truly address poverty. Government fails; freedom works.

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London Mosque Attacker Identified As 47-Year-Old Father Of Four, Charged With Terrorism

The man suspected of using a van to attack worshipers at a London mosque has been identified as 47-year-old Darren Osborne, a father-of-four from Cardiff, Wales. Police have confirmed that he will be charged with the commission, preparation or instigation of terrorism and attempted murder.

While a statement from the Metropolitan police says does not mention the attacker's name but confirms he is being charged as a terrorist…

“A 47-year-old man was arrested for attempted murder and taken to a south London police station where he remains in custody.

 

He has further been arrested for the commission, preparation or instigation of terrorism including murder and attempted murder."

 

At this stage in the investigation, it is believed that the suspect acted alone but we are of course investigating all the circumstances leading up to the attack.

 

There were no reports of any people having suffered knife injuries.

Osborne's neighbor, 52-year-old Dave Ashford, told the Guardian he was shocked to discover that Osborne was suspected of being behind the attack…

“Someone called me and said it was him and I said ‘It can’t be’. Then I saw the picture on the news and said, 'it’s him."

As RT reports, one person died and 10 others were injured in the incident, which British Prime Minister Theresa May has called "sickening," and London's mayor has described as a "horrific terrorist attack."

The attack took place after worshipers had finished prayers during the holy month of Ramadan. All of the victims were Muslim, according to police.

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Records Of 198 Million US Voters “Accidentally” Exposed By RNC Contractor

While the Republican National Committee was allegedly busy evading Russian hacking attempts during the campaign, one of the contractors tasked with running its big-data operation apparently stored some of its most-sensitive files on an unsecured Amazon server that could be accessed by anyone who stumbled across the URL. As the Hill reports, Deep Root Analytics left a database containing 24 terabytes of data, including information about 198 million potential voters, or virtually the entire eligible population. The data included sensitive, but publicly available, information like voters’ addresses and phone numbers.

But more interesting than any personal information involved in the leak was the insight into Deep Root’s "big data" modeling tactics. The data included probabilities for individual voters’ positions on dozens of political issues, as well as estimates of how they voted in past elections. It also provided some insight into how big-data firms collaborate, as identifiers in the data suggest some of it was provided to Deep Root from TargetPoint and the Data Trust, two other big-data firms used by the Republicans.

Here’s the Hill:

For example, a 50-gigabyte file of "Post Elect 2016" information, last updated in mid-January, contained modeled data about a voter's likely positions on 46 different issues ranging from "how likely it is the individual voted for Obama in 2012, whether they agree with the Trump foreign policy of 'America First' and how likely they are to be concerned with auto manufacturing as an issue, among others."

That file appears in a folder titled "targetpoint," an apparent reference to another firm contracted by the RNC to crunch data. UpGuard speculates that the folder may imply that the firm TargetPoint compiled and shared the data with Deep Root. Another folder appears to reference Data Trust, another contracted firm.”

One UpGuard analyst who spoke with the Hill said he looked himself up in the data and that the estimated preferences were right on the money.

Gizmodo went into more detail about the exact nature of some of Deep Root’s models, including one that was used to predict voters’ opinions about the oil and gas industry in the US.

“One exposed folder is labeled “Exxon-Mobile” [sic] and contains spreadsheets apparently used to predict which voters support the oil and gas industry. Divided by state, the files include the voters’ names and addresses, along with a unique RNC identification number assigned to every US citizen registered to vote. Each row indicates where voters likely fall on issues of interest to ExxonMobil, the country’s biggest natural gas producer.”

The data evaluates, for example, whether or not a specific voter believes drilling for fossil fuels is vital to US security. It also predicts if the voter thinks the US should be moving away from fossil-fuel use. The ExxonMobil ‘national score’ document alone contains data on 182,746,897 Americans spread across 19 fields.”

Some of the data were apparently scraped from various subreddits, including, bizarrely, the banned subreddit “r/fatpeoplehate.” As Gizmodo noted, this is likely an attempt by Republicans to match social-media profiles with individual voters, a technique at Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign pioneered.

Some of the data included in Deep Root’s dataset veers into downright bizarre territory. A folder titled simply ‘reddit’ houses 170 GBs of data apparently scraped from several subreddits, including the controversial r/fatpeoplehate that was home to a community of people who posted pictures of people and mocked them for their weight before it was banned from Reddit’s platform in 2015. Other subreddits that appear to have been scraped by Deep Root or a partner organization focused on more benign topics, like mountain biking and the Spanish language.”

The Reddit data could’ve been used as training data for an artificial intelligence algorithm focused on natural language processing, or it might have been harvested as part of an effort to match up Reddit users with their voter registration records. During the 2012 election cycle, Barack Obama’s campaign data team relied on information gleaned from Facebook profiles and matched profiles to voter records.”

Reddit was an important locus of activity for Trump supporters during the campaign: it was the medium where they would create memes and share news stories that countered the mainstream media narrative. The subreddit currently boasts more than 440,000 members. Deep Root was paid handsomely for its efforts. The Hill, citing FEC data, said the firm collected $983,000 from the RNC between January 2015 and November 2016, according to Ad Age.

Though Deep Root has characterized the leak as an oversight, it still amounts to the largest leak of voter information ever.

“It dwarfs the second-largest exposure of voter information — 93.4 million records of Mexican citizens — by more than 100 million voters and tops the largest data breach of voter information — 55 million records of Philippine voters — by more than 140 million."

For its part, Deep Root said it was merely using the data to help target TV ad-buys. “Deep Root Analytics builds voter models to help enhance advertiser understanding of TV viewership. The data accessed was not built for or used by any specific client. It is our proprietary analysis to help inform local television ad buying."

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“Awful Lot Of Progress” Made On First Day Of Brexit Talk As EU, UK Agree On Priorities, Timetable

The first day of official Brexit talks is over, and according to statements it appears to have been a useful session, even though the real work is only just starting. The highlights from Reuters:

  • UK SOURCE SAYS GENERAL MOOD IN FIRST DAY OF BREXIT TALKS WAS “INCREDIBLY POSITIVE”, MADE “AWFUL LOT OF PROGRESS” ON MANY AREAS
  • UK SOURCE SAYS BOTH SIDES AGREED THE CLOCK WAS TICKING ON BREXIT AND NEED TO PUSH ON WAS IN BOTH SIDES’ INTERESTS
  • UK SOURCE SAYS BRITAIN STOOD BY DEMAND THAT TALKS ON FUTURE RELATIONSHIP RUN IN PARALLEL WITH TALKS ON BRITAIN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM EU
  • BARNIER SAYS MEETING WITH DAVIS WAS IMPORTANT OPENING SESSION
  • BARNIER SAYS CLOCK IS TICKING FOR BREXIT DEAL
  • BARNIER SAYS WE MUST ENSURE BREXIT COMES IN ORDERLY MANNER
  • BARNIER SAYS PROTECTION OF IRISH GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT AND MAINTAINING COMMON TRAVEL AREA MOST IMPORTANT OF IRISH BREXIT ISSUES
  • BARNIER SAYS NEXT PHASE OF TALKS WILL BE ON FUTURE PARTNERSHIP

Among other things, the EU and UK have agreed on provisional dates for Brexit talks among the three negotiating groups, which are July 17, Sept 18 and Oct. 19, and will include talks on financial settlement and citizens’ rights.

Reuters also notes that Britain has demanded for talks on the future relationship should run parallel with Brexit talks.

As noted earlier, here is a “simplified” summary of the ongoing EU-UK negotiations:

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“Probably Nothing”

For the first time since September 2001, Robert Shiller’s CAPE Ratio measure of stock market valuation has topped 30x…

(…and yes, we know, we “don’t get it” and “this time is different” and “the world is a changed place” and so on…)

Time will tell…

Source: Multpl.com

In the history of the stock market, it has only traded at a richer valuation during one period – June 1997 to September 2001 – as the dotcom farce blew and burst.

And the market has only been this ‘euphoric’ once…

Trade accordingly.

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FANG Falters As Best-Performing Tech Fund Manager Warns “When Things Are This Elevated, It’s Best To Be Cautious”

Joshua K. Spencer has managed his T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund to become the best-performing mutual fund in the past five years with big bets on Amazon and Tesla is now selling some big winners… and it's sending FANTASY stocks lower

FANG stocks are rolling over…

 

And FANTASIA (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Alphabet, SalesForce, Intel, and Apple) stocks are falling back from their 50% retracement…

But as MarketWatch notes, the fund manager is careful to hedge, pointing out that the decision to sell a company’s shares doesn’t mean Spencer has soured on the business or strategy. In fact, he expressed great confidence in Tesla’s long-term success.

“When sentiment lifts, that is when we usually take money off the table. That is hard to do. It feels bad to sell when stocks do well,” Spencer said.

 

“I have learned from experience that it is difficult to predict what will drive a stock down, but when things are elevated, it is best to be cautious,” Spencer said.

 

Over the past two months, he has been holding more cash than before as he reduces or eliminates positions in “more extreme winners.”

Additionally, Morgan Stanley sees more downside, but is also careful to hedge that eventually you buy the dip…

The sharp sell-off in Technology stocks on June 9th saw some follow through last week with a rotation toward some of the most unfavored areas of the market, including Energy. 

 

We think this could continue for a few more days/weeks but will not lead to a serious decline in Technology stocks or the broader market given a strong earnings backdrop, low interest rates and loose financial conditions.

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Will Georgia’s 6th District Mark Ground Zero Of The “Resistance”?

Democrats have portrayed the runoff for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which will take place tomorrow, as a referendum on Trump’s first months in office.  The runoff pits Democrat Jon Ossoff against Republican Karen Handel in a race that has drawn national attention and historic levels of spending with Ossoff raising an astounding $23 million. 

According to the Real Clear Politics average, Ossoff holds 2.6 point advantage in recent polls. That said, just like last November, we would be shocked if there weren’t some “oversamples” in that polling data which means tomorrow night could be a very long evening for Ossoff and Handel. 

And, just like the the national election, the outcome of tomorrow’s contest will ultimately come down to voter turnout.  As The Hill points out, Ossoff will need black voters to turn out in much greater numbers than they did for Hillary.  As for Handel, strategists say that female turnout will be the key to her ultimate performance.

RCP

 

As The Hill points out, with less than 24 hours until polls open, the Democratic machine is in overdrive today with their “Get Out The Vote” efforts.

“The GOTV effort is huge and critical,” Ossoff told a small group of reporters Sunday at his Chamblee field office.

 

“We’re doing everything we can to make sure folks know when and where to vote and how. And making the case for fresh leadership given what’s going on in Washington. And that sending another career politician to D.C. ain’t going to change anything.”

 

“This is going to be an extraordinarily close election and it’s going to be a late night on Tuesday,” he said. “Every vote will count.”

Meanwhile, with Dems anxious to hand Trump his first ‘loss’, Ossoff has drawn a lot of support from national groups as well.

National groups such as the Progressive Turnout Project, a political action committee, and Planned Parenthood Action Fund (PPAF) have also been flexing their muscles when it comes to boosting turnout and reaching scores of voters in the sixth district.

 

PPAF said it has 40 canvassers who knock on doors each day, and will have knocked on 80,000 doors ahead of the voting. The group touts that it’s twice the size of any other independent canvasses backing Ossoff.

 

Alex Morgan, executive director of Progressive Turnout Project, said the group has four full-time field reps based in the district and is focused solely on encouraging Democratic voters who vote in every election to turnout again on Tuesday. The group has knocked on 20,000 doors since mid-April, getting 1,500 commitments from people who say they’ll vote for Ossoff.

 

While canvassing, the group said they’ve consistently heard that voters want a representative who will be a check on Trump, who has been the “biggest partisan force” in the special election.

Of course, Ossoff took some heat throughout the campaign for not being a resident of the Congressional district for which he’s looking to get elected…an issue which Handel hammered him on during a recent debate.

 

Meanwhile, the recent shooting of Majority Whip Steve Scalise could have a major impact on voter turnout with Brad Carver, the GOP chairman in Georgia’s 11th Congressional District, saying it could be what ultimately tips the scales in favor of Handel.  Per the Washington Post:

“I’ll tell you what: I think the shooting is going to win this election for us,” Carver told the Post Saturday. “Because moderates and independents in this district are tired of left-wing extremism. I get that there’s extremists on both sides, but we are not seeing them.”

 

“We’re seeing absolute resistance to everything this president does,” Carver continued. “Moderates and independents out there want to give him a chance. Democrats have never given this president a chance.”

And with the race being hailed as a key referendum vote on the Trump administration, it’s hardly surprising that Trump has pushed for Handel over twitter.

 

So how will it all turn out?  Will Democrats hand Trump his first big loss and a taste of what is to come in 2018 or, just like in November, did the Dems just spend an obscene amount of money for absolutely nothing?

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