It’s On: Gazprom Prepares “Symbolic” Bond Issue In Chinese Yuan

Curious what the fate of the petrodollar is? Look no farther than this Interfax update blasted moments ago by Bloomberg: “Gazprom Considers ‘Symbolic’ Yuan Bond Issue, Interfax Says.”

Bloomberg adds that the gas giant is considering proposals from potential organizers to market bonds in yuan, Interfax reports, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

  • Gazprom unlikely be able to gain more than $300m due to mkt volume, newswire reports
  • No mandates, deal timeline yet
  • Issue may add new investors, become a “topical” public relations act amid tensions with U.S., EU

Well, yes. It’s called “symbolic” for a reason. More importantly, it is a symbol of what happens when one can “create” money de novo without the presence of the world’s increasingly defunct reserve currency, either secured by gas or by future cash flows, i.e., unsecured.

Confused? Read:

… and the New New Normal flow of funds will suddenly become clear –

  1. Gazprom delivering gas to China.
  2. China Gazprom paying in Yuan (convertible into Rubles)
  3. Gazprom funding itself increasingly in Yuan.
  4. Russia buying Chinese goods and services in Yuan (convertible into Rubles)

And all of this with the US banker cartel completely disintermediated courtesy of the glaring absence of the USD in any of the above listed steps, or as some may call it: from the Petrodollar to the Gas-o-yuan (something 40 central banks have already figured out… just not the Fed).




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S&P Plunges Back To Negative Year-To-Date

It appears yesterday’s “Fed Cat Bounce” was exactly that. While the momos are making headlines, selling pressure is broad-based now and the S&P has just joined the Russell, Nasdaq, and Dow in the red year-to-date… “Growth” stocks are at the lows of the year relative to “Value”

click image for huge legible version…

 

With “Growth” at its lows for the year versus “Value”




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Is The Fed To Blame For The Bursting Of The Tech Bubble?

Correlation is not causation but…

 

 

As a reminder Fed Governor Dan Tarullo (in charge of supervision and regulation) also warned (on Feb 25th):

  • *TARULLO SEES RISK OF LARGE LOSSES IN LEVERAGED LOAN FUNDS
  • *TARULLO: FARMLAND, SMALL TECH FIRM VALUATIONS SEEM `STRETCHED’
  • *TARULLO SEES RISK OF LARGE LOSSES IN HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BONDS
  • *TARULLO FAVORS KEEPING OPTION OF USING RATES AGAINST BUBBLES

How soon we forget?

expectations fostered by forward guidance of continued low rates, may be incentivizing financial market actors to take on additional risks to boost margins, thereby contributing to unsustainable increases in asset prices and a consequent buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.”

Don’t fight the Fed!

And what he said last night…

  • *TARULLO SAYS POLICY HASN’T CREATED ‘PREFERRED’ RECOVERY




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The Revolving Door Spins Again – Former SEC Enforcer to Join Private Equity Giant KKR

Nothing is more important to a fully streamlined corrupt crony capitalist economy as the ever-present “revolving door” between regulatory agencies and the industries/companies they regulate. These moves have become so pervasive in American society that it is simply impossible to keep up with them all, but I try my best to cover the most egregious examples whenever possible. As a refresher, I suggest reading the following:

How Obama’s Chief Negotiators on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Treaty Received Huge Bonuses from Mega Banks

Revolving Door 2014: Former Head of the Federal Communications Commission Joins Carlyle

Journalism’s Revolving Door: Washington Post’s National Security Editor Joins the State Department

The Pentagon’s Revolving Door with Defense Contractors…Some Shocking Statistics

How Jack “Bailout Bonus” Lew Got to Treasury

It Never Ends: Top Obama Housing Advisor Jumps Ship to Wells Fargo

Meet Liz Fowler: Architect of ObamaCare Jumps Ship to Johnson & Johnson

Meet Mary Jo White: The Next SEC Chief and a Guaranteed Wall Street Patsy

I recognize that’s a lot of catching up to do, but you get my point. There were many other posts I didn’t even mention above in the interest of not overdoing it.

In any event, last evening we were informed of another example. Bruce Karpati, a former top Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer, is moving on to become global chief compliance officer at private equity giant KKR. He left the SEC last May when he was  chief of the Enforcement Division’s Asset Management Unit. Naturally, he went to work for an asset manager, Prudential’s mutual fund unit specifically. Now that he thinks enough time has passed, he is going for the real payday.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Bruce Karpati, a former top Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer, is heading to private-equity giant KKR & Co. to become global chief compliance officer, said people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Karpati, most recently the chief compliance officer for Prudential Financial Inc’s mutual fund business, is expected to start at KKR later this month, one of the people said.

continue reading

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10 Year Breakdown To 2.4% Possible BofA Warns

As one well-known trader noted – referring to the current move in the US Treasury complex – “rubber, meet road.”With the death cross (50DMA crossing below the 200DMA) for bond yields and a crucial trendline having been tested now numerous times (building up its importance), it seems we are about to find out just how much “growth” stocks really do reflect the reality of ‘ungrowth’ in bonds and vice versa. A break of 2.64% in 10Y yield could be a critical floodgate the Fed does not want opened. As BofAML’s Macneil Curry warns, 10Y Treasury bears beware, a break below this level opens up a drop to 2.399%.

 

A close-up on the trends (and death cross)…

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

As BofAML’s Macneil Curry warns US Treasury Bears Beware…

US 10yr yields are approaching PIVOTAL resistance at 2.629%/2.608%. Against here we remain bearish 10s.

HOWEVER, a break below would say we are wrong, exposing the Oct’13 low and multi-year pivot zone between 2.469%/2.399%

 

 

And he is fearful that USDJPY is about to break support also




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US Destroyer Enters Black Sea To “Reassure NATO Allies And Black Sea Partners”

The war of words between the west and Russia escalated some more on Wednesday after NATO’s top military commander in Europe, General Philip Breedlove, said the Russian military presence at the border with Ukraine continued and released satellite photos of tanks, attack helicopters and war planes to validate this. 

Russia promptly replied that it would have none of this, and not only denied once more that it has any plans to invade Ukraine, but foreign minister Lavrov said that Russia was merely retaliating to what it sees as a NATO build up along: “The constant accusations against us by the secretary general convince us that the alliance is trying to use the crisis in Ukraine to rally its ranks in the face of an imaginary external threat to Nato members and to strengthen demand for the alliance … in the 21st century.”  As opposed to the 19th century, one assumes, eh John Kerry?

Today it was NATO’s turn to retaliate once more. First with words, after NATO Secretary General Rasmussen said: “I have this message to Russia: you have a choice to stop blaming others for your own actions, to stop massing your troops, to stop escalating this crisis and start engaging in a genuine dialogue.” He added: “If Russia is serious about a dialogue, the first step should be to pull back its troops.”

And then with actions, by explicitly confirming that Lavrov was absolutely correct when he accused NATO of building up weapons around Russia and thus forcing Russia on the defensive, when US destroyer Donald Cook crossed the Bosphorus overnight and entered the Black Sea. Why? To “show America’s commitment to the region.

“The Donald Cook’s mission is to reassure NATO allies and Black Sea partners of America’s commitment to strengthen and improve interoperability while working towards mutual goals in the region,” Pentagon spokesman Army Col. Steven Warren said.

More importantly, it will also reassure Russia and its citizens that their country’s stance that the arms building up along Ukraine’s borders is indeed simply to defend against a boosted NATO presence is valid, and will likely prompt even more of a troop and weapons build up.

Until finally someone on either side of the border “accidentally” fires a shot across into the other side and then the war of words will progress into the real thing.

So keep an eye on further escalations by both NATO, and naturally Russia – which suddenly is once again on the defensive in its view – and perhaps on what Russia’s aircraft carrier currently in Cyprus’ port of Limassol is doing.




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Bail-In Regime Facing Increasing Opposition In EU

DAILY PRICE REPORT
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,321.50, EUR 953.19 & GBP 787.73 per ounce.               

Yesterday’s AM fix was 1,309.75, EUR 949.92 & GBP 782.74 per ounce.  


Gold rose $2.30 or 0.18% yesterday to $1,308.80/oz. Silver lost $0.13 or 0.65% to $19.88/oz.   



Market Futures Snapshot – (Financial Visualisations)

Gold extended gains to a third session today, scaling to fresh two week highs above $1,320/oz. Silver surged 2.5% to $20.26/oz.

Gains were due to geopolitical tensions, dovish sounds from the Fed and the very poor exports data from China which led to concerns about the Chinese and global economy. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting which showed that officials were not keen on increasing interest rates anytime soon are also supporting gold.

 

Low interest rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding non yielding bullion above other assets, have been an important factor driving prices higher in recent years. Real interest rates are set to remain negative for the foreseeable future which will be supportive of precious metals.


Silver in U.S. Dollars – 5 Years (Daily)

Gold has gained 1.2% in the previous two sessions due to rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and NATO and the West. These tensions are set to remain and will not be resolved anytime soon.


Silver continues to be favoured by contrarian investors who see it as oversold and very undervalued vis a vis other assets including gold.

Bail-In Regime Facing Increasing Opposition In EU
The landmark EU agreement on a common rulebook for handling bank failures, including bailins, is in danger of unravelling over the fine print restricting when a state can intervene to rescue a struggling bank according to the Financial Times.

Britain is facing objections from several other EU member states as it scrambles to revise a political deal, hastily reached in December. The FT reports that it is “an attempt to protect the Bank of England’s emergency role as covert lender of last resort.”

 

The political standoff over the bank resolution directive – including bail-ins of bank depositors –  comes days before the European parliament is supposed to adopt the agreed text of the legislation.

While London insists it is belatedly rectifying a technical discrepancy, other diplomats suspect it is revisiting a fundamental element of the reforms, which aim to spare taxpayers from the costs of bank failure.

“This is a complete mess, a nightmare and we have to decide what to do fast,” one person involved told the FT.

At issue is what form of support a state can provide to a lender in difficulty without triggering a so-called bail-in, where losses are imposed on bond holders who lent money to a bank and on depositors – both household and corporate.

The British want to clarify that central banks can extend liquidity even when relying on a specific government guarantee, without triggering haircuts on bondholders. The position is acceptable to parliament but, since Friday, has prompted several member states to raise concerns. At this late stage any revisions to the text require unanimity.

It is important to realise that not just the EU, but also the UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand and most G20 nations have plans for bail-ins in the event that banks and other large financial institutions get into difficulty again. This seems likely given the lack of effective and real reform.

The coming bail-ins pose real risks to investors and of course depositors – both household and corporate. Return of capital, rather than return on capital is now of paramount importance.

 

Educate yourself about this emerging threat to your livelihood by reading:
Bail-In Short Guide: Protecting your Savings In The Coming Bail-In Era

Bail-In Research: From Bail-Outs to Bail-Ins: Risks and Ramifications

 

 




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But It Says So on Facebook!

By: Chris Tell at http://ift.tt/146186R

Funny story. I spoke with a fellow angel investor recently who is now a successful investor but wasn’t always. We were regaling past successes and failures. He told me a story of a terrible deal, which as he recounted the story involved a “Doctor”. The company in question was a start-up and was selling drugs to kids. Really!

Their products were basically generics made in Thailand and their field of “expertise” was in pediatric drugs.

There were 3 guys running the company with one of them based in Thailand procuring supplies and managing the order flow. The other two guys were based in Australia and they were going to sell drugs to pharmacies and try to expand into Doctors offices.

What went wrong I asked? My friend laughed.

“Well when I ran DD on the deal I was really young and completely inexperienced so you’ll laugh.”

Tell me.

“Well in the stack deck the one founder stated he was a Doctor so I Googl’d him and found his Facebook profile. Sure enough it said he was a Doctor. I never thought to check beyond that.”

“Then there was the guy in Thailand. It said he was a Doctor as well. I figured two of the founders being doctors and launching a business in pharmaceuticals would be a winner. He was in fact a Doctor but as it turns out he was a Doctor of law. He knew nothing about medicine and really he turned out to be an alcoholic loser who’d fled Australia for the welcoming arms of Thai hookers.”

“I found out in the most unpleasant way. I bought the story of course, and when they inevitably ran out of cash and needed further injections I rallied to the role of capital raiser because I didn’t want to see my investment vaporize, though to be fair at this point I still thought they were on fire because of course they told me they were. Remember I’d done zero DD really and this was a long, long time ago. I’d checked Facebook and spoken with the partners.”

Aye Carumba!

“Aye Carumba indeed, anyway I hit up a contact I’d been introduced to, who is a well known investor we both know. X took one look at this and said, “But these guys can’t bring that shit into Australia. It’s illegal. I was bummed. Really? No I said, they’ve got this sorted, I’m sure. I think the guy will lose his practicing certificate he said. Is it current? I had no idea.”

“So when I left the meeting with my tail between my legs I rang up the “Doctor” and said hey can you send me your practicing certificate. He laughed. No he said, look I’m the marketing professional, I’m only a Doctor on Facebook.”

This brings me in a roundabout way to what I was originally going to talk about today which is animal slaughter. Seriously! 

The first step to eliminate dogs in your private equity portfolio is by creating an amazing network which brings you good deal flow. This is where my friend went wrong from the start. He didn’t have good deal flow, and at that time he had little skill in evaluating deals and no mentors to turn to.

When I say “good deal flow” I mean proprietary, high-quality deal flow. This comes from strong networks, experience and having lost money in the past and “been around the block”. You don’t want the deals that are being shopped around town. If it’s been around for more than a couple months it’s probably not worth doing.

Many years ago when I first got into this I was searching for deal-flow. Now people beat a path to our door and we have the opposite problem. Which brings me to the next step.

Filtering Deals

Even with good deal flow you’re going to have to learn to say no…a lot. Only the best can get through, and you get a feel for it over time. You simply can’t even bother taking a 30 minute call with someone, let alone flying across the world to meet with them and begin thorough DD if it’s going to waste your time.

Part of this process is “training” your deal flow network. People in your network will bring you deals they think are good but you need to train them as to what YOU want. Remember they don’t have the same filters as you do.

I don’t have time to vet deals which are not a fit, even if it only takes me 10 minutes to realise it. That is 10 minutes of wasted time and of no benefit to either myself or the party bringing the deal. Remember you’re going to be seeing hundreds of deals. Get brutal fast.

Deals brought to me need to be invest-able and they need to be invested in by my source. If a strong contact in my network brings me a deal I don’t want to see it unless he’s willing to place capital in it himself. This allows for an automatic filtering of deals.

Why do this? Because what you find is that it’s easy to pass OK deals on to other investors in your network. Entrepreneurs will always want you to do it, and I get it. If I’m a founder raising money and the first Angel I speak to says no, I would definitely also ask him if he knows of anyone who would potentially like the deal. That’s the entrepreneurs job. It’s not my job though, and I can’t risk my credibility on deals I’ve not done deep dive DD on.

The same therefore applies in reciprocity. Now I never pass any deal on. My network is too valuable to do that to them. The only legitimate deal outside of this is where for instance someone in our network says, “Hey I’m interested in this deal but need help evaluating it. If it stacks up I’ll do it.” Fine.

This is how you build an amazing network. You have to have strict criteria otherwise your network will reflect your lack of judgement. In other words a crappy network will bring crappy deal-flow.


– Chris

“The currency of real networking is not greed but generosity.” – Keith Ferrazzi




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“Growth” Stocks Slammed – Lose All FOMC Minutes Exuberance

Well that didn’t take long. At yesterday’s close, every talking head was proclaiming the growth sell off over and “see” the Fed is as easy as we said… however, this morning (after dismal data out of Japan and China) US equities have been a one-way street lower. If the world is relying on a post-cold-weather rebounding US economy to be the engine of growth… is it any wonder they are selling “growth” and buying bonds… Nasdaq and Russell have give up all their FOMC minutes gains and Momos and Biotechs are being monkey-hammered…

 

 

and Momos are gettng smashed…




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Satellite Photos Released Revealing Russian Military Build Up

It's not quite YouTube clips, but NATO has released satellite image-based proof that confirms the dramatic build up of Russian military forces along its borders. The images showing tanks, attack helicopters, and war planes, according to NATIO general Breedlove provide support for counter-moves by allies to safeguard their partners. Russia, for its part, has denied it has any plans to invade Ukraine and suggests that NATO is "using the crisis in Ukraine to rally its ranks in the face of an imaginary external threat to strengthen demand for the alliance … in the 21st century."

 

As Channel 4 reports,

The images released by General Breedlove are reported to have been taken on 22 March, nearly a month after the unrest in Crimea began that led to Russia's annexation of the area. The photographs were taken by commercial satellite imaging company Digital Globe.

You can see the images below.

Above: Purported to be Russian military Su-27/30 "Flankers" aircraft at the Primorko-Akhtarsk Air Base in southern Russia, on the Sea of Azov which borders Ukraine. (Image: Digital Globe).

Above: purported to be Russian military tanks and infantry fighting vehicles at a military base near Kuzminka, east of the Sea of Azov in southern Russia (picture: Digital Glob)

Above: purported to be a Russian military airborne or Spetznaz (special forces) brigade at Yeysk, near the Sea of Azov in southern Russia (picture: Digital Globe).

Above: purported to be a Russian artillery battalion at a military base near Novocherkassk, east of the Sea of Azov in southern Russia (picture: Digital Globe).

Above: purported to be Russian Mil Mi-8 "Hips" and Mil Mi-24 "Hinds" aircraft in Belgorod, north of the Russian border with eastern Ukraine (picture: Digital Globe).

Speaking in Prague on Thursday, Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said:

"I have this message to Russia: you have a choice to stop blaming others for your own actions, to stop massing your troops, to stop escalating this crisis and start engaging in a genuine dialogue."

He added:

"If Russia is serious about a dialogue, the first step should be to pull back its troops."

Russia has denied that it has any plans to invade Ukraine.

 

Source: Channel 4




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