Tag: finance

With the HFT brigade selling then buying, and trying to goalseek an explanation of why this happened after the fact, one key aspect of today’s release that was ignored is that the BLS just revised its Establishment Survey data, in the process changing all historical job numbers. To wit: “Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates.” As a result of this revision, while the monthly changes were not that dramatic, what happened is that the “stock” level of jobs as reflected in the Establishment Survey rose by half a million as of December 31, from 136,877 to 137,386. And so all key historic data – from GDP in early 2013 to jobs – has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend.

A table summary of the change: before and after.

And the monthly change in the Establishment Survey in the pre and post-revision numbers.

Some more details from the BLS on the revision:

In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March  2013. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which enumerates jobs covered by the UI tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2012 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2009 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2009, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate revisions.

 

The total nonfarm employment level for March 2013 was revised upward by 369,000 (+347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, or 0.3 percent). The average benchmark revision over the past 10 years was plus or minus 0.3 percent.

 

This revision incorporates the reclassification of jobs in the QCEW. Private household employment is out of scope for the establishment survey. The QCEW reclassified some private household employment into an industry that is in scope for the establishment survey–services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This reclassification accounted for an increase of 466,000 jobs in the establishment survey. This increase of 466,000 associated with reclassification was offset by survey error of -119,000 for a total net benchmark revision of +347,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Historical time series have been reconstructed to incorporate these revisions.

 

The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2013 was revised from 2,186,000 to 2,322,000 seasonally adjusted. Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2013.

And now, if only the Department of Truth can revise away the Great Financial Crisis, and all shall be well.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cavaYY Tyler Durden

In the 30 seconds before this morning’s jobs report was released to the general public, Gold prices dropped and USDJPY jumped from its relative stasis going in. Obviously it is not clear if anyone knew anything but following the knee-jerk reactions, these were rightly positioned moves for where the market is now.

 

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Ugly jobs report in which not even the spin brigade could find anything to cheer, after even the BLS said the atrocious December print was not due to the weather when it did not revise the December number? No worries: here is what the market is using as a goalseeked justification to send the futures off its post report plunge lows to a level higher than where it was before the report. See if you can spot it:

That’s right – after years of ignoring the impact of the labor force participation rate, suddenly the market trading algos are so concerned about LFP they took the “surge” from the 35 year lows of 62.8% to 63.0% as the all clear signal that they can ignore all the other data in the NFP report and buy.

Another way of seeing this, is the number of people not in the labor force, which declined from an all time record 91,808 to 91,455 – just below the second highest ever.

Of course, both these trends will revert to their historic deteriorating progression, but for now it is all about finding the narrative that allows the market to explain why someone just reactivated the USDJPY 102 tractor beam which is sending everything soaring.

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1l5Bsz7 Tyler Durden

Ugly jobs report in which not even the spin brigade could find anything to cheer, after even the BLS said the atrocious December print was not due to the weather when it did not revise the December number? No worries: here is what the market is using as a goalseeked justification to send the futures off its post report plunge lows to a level higher than where it was before the report. See if you can spot it:

That’s right – after years of ignoring the impact of the labor force participation rate, suddenly the market trading algos are so concerned about LFP they took the “surge” from the 35 year lows of 62.8% to 63.0% as the all clear signal that they can ignore all the other data in the NFP report and buy.

Another way of seeing this, is the number of people not in the labor force, which declined from an all time record 91,808 to 91,455 – just below the second highest ever.

Of course, both these trends will revert to their historic deteriorating progression, but for now it is all about finding the narrative that allows the market to explain why someone just reactivated the USDJPY 102 tractor beam which is sending everything soaring.

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1l5Bsz7 Tyler Durden

UPDATE: Stocks have bounced on USDJPY’s jump back to 102 (as we warned) but Treasuries are not playing along

 

Bonds are surging and gold is well bid as the jobs report had little to offer the hopeful. The anti-goldilocks number slammed bonds with the 10Y Yield to unchanged on the week (down around 8bps on the kneejerk), gold is testing $1270 as JPY strength provides ammunition for derisking in the equity markets. S&P futures spiked 11 points higher on the release as algos went wild, then fell over 20 points from that high and are bouncing back modestly now. Of course, we are still 45 minutes from the US open so expect USDJPY to be levered back to 102 and lift stocks to make retail believe everything is fine…

 

 

and Spot The Difference…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/NeisDh Tyler Durden

So much for the hope of either a surge in January jobs, or a massive upward revision in the December print. Moments ago the January jobs number came out and at 113K, it was a huge miss to the expected 180K, but more importantly, the December number which was expected to be revised much higher was virtually unchanged at 75K, compared to 74K originally. The unemployment rate, which has become largely irrelevant, dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%, just so Obama can get the brownie points for fixing the economy. However, judging by the market reaction this is hardly what the traders think.

More shortly.

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From RanSquawk:

The two most important consensus numbers:

• US Unemployment Rate (Jan) Exp. 6.7% (Low 6.5%, High 6.9%), Prev. 6.7%, Nov. 7.0%
• US Change in Nonfarm Payroll (Jan) Exp. 180K (Low 105K, High 270K), Prev. 74K, Nov. 241K

Broken down by bank:

• HSBC 171K
• Barclays 175K
• Citigroup 180K
• Bank of America 185K
• Deutsche Bank 200K
• UBS 200K
• Goldman Sachs 200K
• JP Morgan 205K

Today sees the release of the nonfarm payrolls report for January, which follows Decembers’s large miss on expectations at 74k versus a consensus of 197k. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has acknowledged that weather conditions had a significant effect on last month’s reading. Ahead of the polar vortex in the US,  adverse weather kept 273k employed workers at home (versus a 10-year average of 166k) and temperatures remained lower than average in January, particularly in the first half of the month. The market reaction to another low reading may therefore be subdued, if it is believed to be representative of weather effects rather than economic fundamentals.

Wednesday saw a relatively strong, albeit lower than expected reading of the ADP report (175K vs. Exp. 185K), often considered to be a strong indicator of NFP because of the two data points’ methodological similarities. However, last month’s reading showed 238k, which versus an NFP reading of 74k represented the largest discrepancy between the two readings since Moody’s began compiling the figure in 2012; the average miss between the two releases is 50k. In terms of other data points, although this week’s ISM manufacturing missed expectations the major regional manufacturing surveys from New York, Philadelphia and Chicago were all better than expected, and the ISM non-manufacturing reading was also higher than consensus, with the employment component rising to 56.4 (prev. 55.6).

In terms of the unemployment figure, last month’s drop from 7.0% to 6.7% was the largest decline since December 2010. Consensus currently points to an unchanged reading this month, however, the figure may be influenced by the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits at the end of December. A proportion of the 1.3mln people whose benefits came to an end will have left the labour force if unable to find work, which if proved true could have the effect of reducing the unemployment rate.

Market Reaction

With the Fed now seemingly on a USD 10bln per-month tapering path, participants may view the central bank as less likely to be influenced by the report than previous months unless the reading falls far short, or far exceeds expectations.

As a result, a strong reading indicative of a healthy labour market will likely see a knee-jerk reaction higher in US equities and the USD, and downside in Treasuries and gold. A reading largely influenced by weather conditions in January could mean the initial fast-money moves will fail to be sustained, although a large beat is likely to support the view of another taper by the FOMC at their next meeting in March. Another drop in the unemployment rate, which would edge closer to the Fed’s 6.5% unemployment threshold for the first Fed funds rate hike, is unlikely to cause an aggressive shift towards the view of a near-term rate hike due to the fact the Fed continue to reiterate that the Fed will maintain accommodative policy for some-time to come yet.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gacUSo Tyler Durden

Following rate-rigging scandals, FX manipulation debacles, insider-trading idiocy, and over-aggressive lending practices, bankers are taking a different approach in regaining some public trust. As Jamie Dimon gives himself a “well-deserved” pay rise, Dutch bankers are turning to God… As Bloomberg reports, all 90,000 Dutch bank employees will take an oath ‘to do no harm’ as it were, punishable by the Banking Association. While Goldman may be doing God’s work; the Dutch are vowing to Him to enhance confidence in their industry.

 

 

Via Bloomberg,

The oath…

 

“I swear that I will do my utmost to preserve and enhance confidence in the financial-services industry. So help me God.”

 

…is the first of its kind in Europe, became binding on board members of Dutch banks last month as the government sought to rein in an industry with assets more than four times the size of the country’s economy.

 

All 90,000 Dutch bank employees must take the pledge, or a non-religious affirmation, starting the second half of this year. They’ll be punished should they break new ethical rules, Banking Association Chairman Chris Buijink said in an interview in Amsterdam.

 

Dutch bankers who fail to abide by the new rules may be blacklisted, face fines or suspensions

 

…

 

“It’s a good signal to your employees and brings back awareness of the importance of these values,” said Bruggink, 50, who’s been CFO of the biggest Dutch mortgage lender since 2004. “It fits in with these times, where banks have to work hard to restore trust.”

 

…

 

“Other professions, such as lawyers and doctors, have a long-standing tradition of ethics,” he said. “With bankers, however, we don’t really know what the professional standards entail. More so, we don’t really know what ‘‘the banker” is. There is a large variation of roles within the industry.’’

It would seem they have a long way to go…

Thirty-four percent of Dutch citizens expressed trust in the finance industry last year compared with 90 percent in 2008

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gacStS Tyler Durden

Following rate-rigging scandals, FX manipulation debacles, insider-trading idiocy, and over-aggressive lending practices, bankers are taking a different approach in regaining some public trust. As Jamie Dimon gives himself a “well-deserved” pay rise, Dutch bankers are turning to God… As Bloomberg reports, all 90,000 Dutch bank employees will take an oath ‘to do no harm’ as it were, punishable by the Banking Association. While Goldman may be doing God’s work; the Dutch are vowing to Him to enhance confidence in their industry.

 

 

Via Bloomberg,

The oath…

 

“I swear that I will do my utmost to preserve and enhance confidence in the financial-services industry. So help me God.”

 

…is the first of its kind in Europe, became binding on board members of Dutch banks last month as the government sought to rein in an industry with assets more than four times the size of the country’s economy.

 

All 90,000 Dutch bank employees must take the pledge, or a non-religious affirmation, starting the second half of this year. They’ll be punished should they break new ethical rules, Banking Association Chairman Chris Buijink said in an interview in Amsterdam.

 

Dutch bankers who fail to abide by the new rules may be blacklisted, face fines or suspensions

 

…

 

“It’s a good signal to your employees and brings back awareness of the importance of these values,” said Bruggink, 50, who’s been CFO of the biggest Dutch mortgage lender since 2004. “It fits in with these times, where banks have to work hard to restore trust.”

 

…

 

“Other professions, such as lawyers and doctors, have a long-standing tradition of ethics,” he said. “With bankers, however, we don’t really know what the professional standards entail. More so, we don’t really know what ‘‘the banker” is. There is a large variation of roles within the industry.’’

It would seem they have a long way to go…

Thirty-four percent of Dutch citizens expressed trust in the finance industry last year compared with 90 percent in 2008

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gacStS Tyler Durden

Today there are literally hundreds of millions of people protesting their economic situations in dozens of countries in every single region of the world. While these protests are valid, and government corruption is the equilibrium state for all governments worldwide, the missing component is the ability of protesters to connect the dots and determine the underlying common denominator in the terrible economic state worldwide that has resulted in the middle class being decimated in the US and the horrific 15% suicide rates among all deaths in the 25 to 34 year old demographic in Spain.

 

In the below video, we discuss the power of the lone dissenter to connect the dots of global economic disenfranchisement for billions of people worldwide, and why the silence of good people working for morally bankrupt industries is just as powerful an enabler of economic destruction as is the courage of a lone dissenter to re-focus and re-shape protests and revolutions on only the most pertinent and salient of issues. In fact, having the honor of a lone dissenter amongst us may be the difference between our financial life and death in the next couple of years, and in the case of 9/11 survivors in the South tower that met lone dissenters as they were returning to their offices after the first plane hit the North tower, the difference between literal life and death for them (we discuss this situation in the video below).

 

 

Other recent SmartKnowledgeU videos:

What the Chinese Yuan is Telling Us, Part 1

What the Chinese Yuan is Telling Us, Part 2

Does Your Gang Affiliation Preventing You From Thinking Clearly?

#AskJPM Provides Blueprint to Rein in Criminal Bankers

The One Global Bubble We Can NOT Let Pop   

 

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